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SystemSystem Posts: 12,687
edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There are almost no changes at the top in the July Ipsos-MORI Index

Very little change in top concerns in July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. See chart pic.twitter.com/Ws8Pm8o7Qs

Read the full story here


Comments

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    First!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    What's most interesting about that graph is how low the economic concern was in 1997, when the incumbent tories got hammered.

    Getting the economy right clearly isn't a magic bullet, which is why labour are grubbing around for stuff on Crosby.

    It was sleaze, and not the economy, that killed the tories in 1997.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    FPT/OT ..The Cheshire Farmer still brands anyone who has a concern about uncontrolled immigration either a xenophobe or Racist
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    Given that the state of the economy stubbornly remains the most salient issue to poll respondents and that there has been little change in ranking or salience for other issues, I am surprised that no mention has yet been made of MORI's Economic Optimism Index.

    The EOI moved into postive territory for the first time since July 2010 with a score of +5.

    More than any other change in metric, increased confidence in the management of the economy must explain why the Tory VI share is increasing and the gap with Labour narrowing.

    And this result appears based on polling between 28th June and 4th July so doesn't take into account any reaction to today's GDP growth figures. There is clearly potential for these figures to move further.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    taffys said:



    Getting the economy right clearly isn't a magic bullet, which is why labour are grubbing around for stuff on Crosby.

    It was sleaze, and not the economy, that killed the tories in 1997.

    Agreed about 1997 - Sleaze and perceptions about the overall competance of a party that was inolved in a huge civil war over Europe


  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    @AveryLP

    We've got another Populus poll coming out tomorrow - interesting to see if it has tracked a narrowing like YouGov.

    I gather that we are going to see two polls a week from Populus which is great.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Some pictures from Number 10 of the LGBT reception.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/sets/72157634795286356/

    I can't see Tebbitt or Bone
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeSmithson said:

    taffys said:



    Getting the economy right clearly isn't a magic bullet, which is why labour are grubbing around for stuff on Crosby.

    It was sleaze, and not the economy, that killed the tories in 1997.

    Agreed about 1997 - Sleaze and perceptions about the overall competance of a party that was inolved in a huge civil war over Europe


    And sheer ennui.

    The buggers had been in power for 18 years and Blair looked a safe and appealing change.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MikeSmithson said:

    taffys said:



    Getting the economy right clearly isn't a magic bullet, which is why labour are grubbing around for stuff on Crosby.

    It was sleaze, and not the economy, that killed the tories in 1997.

    Agreed about 1997 - Sleaze and perceptions about the overall competance of a party that was inolved in a huge civil war over Europe
    Yes - 1997 was about a party that had won against a weak opponent 5 years before (I remember the 1992 election night - pink champagne on ice to toast the return of socialism, which quickly was described as "hung Parliament..and the rest is history) - and the "second chance" was blown in a mire of ERM, sleaze, a perception of incompetence and that the safe option of that nice young man, Tony Blair.

    2015 will not be like that - a first term government that has probably "done ok" and may well be extended the benefit of the doubt against an opposition that has spent the year before the run up on a potentially acrimonious internal feud, and all over a "non-story" too.....

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    MikeSmithson said:

    @AveryLP

    We've got another Populus poll coming out tomorrow - interesting to see if it has tracked a narrowing like YouGov.

    I gather that we are going to see two polls a week from Populus which is great.

    Has anyone done any research on the impact of published poll results on future polling?

    There must be some self-fulfilling impact. If the news media is full of stories about climbing or falling VI shares then surely it will influence readers and listeners to confirm the trend.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Should there be the phrase "recession no 1" when there was no recession no 2?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,126
    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    @AveryLP

    We've got another Populus poll coming out tomorrow - interesting to see if it has tracked a narrowing like YouGov.

    I gather that we are going to see two polls a week from Populus which is great.

    Has anyone done any research on the impact of published poll results on future polling?

    There must be some self-fulfilling impact. If the news media is full of stories about climbing or falling VI shares then surely it will influence readers and listeners to confirm the trend.

    Last year I mentioned a study that showed the 'worm' that was displayed on the bottom of TV screens during the debates can influence viewers as to the success of the participants. So yes, I think there will be an effect.

    http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018154
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    MikeSmithson said:

    Some pictures from Number 10 of the LGBT reception.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/number10gov/sets/72157634795286356/

    I can't see Tebbitt or Bone

    Or Duncan or Boles or Herbert or....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Jessop, that's a very important story and shows why the worm should be axed. The group controlling it is too small, too prone to groupthink and if even one zealous idiot happens to be chosen for it they could skew the entire thing.

    I also think frequent polling, such as the daily YouGov, should be banned during elections. They made the news rather than reflecting it in 2010.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,126
    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    @AveryLP

    We've got another Populus poll coming out tomorrow - interesting to see if it has tracked a narrowing like YouGov.

    I gather that we are going to see two polls a week from Populus which is great.

    Has anyone done any research on the impact of published poll results on future polling?

    There must be some self-fulfilling impact. If the news media is full of stories about climbing or falling VI shares then surely it will influence readers and listeners to confirm the trend.

    Last year I mentioned a study that showed the 'worm' that was displayed on the bottom of TV screens during the debates can influence viewers as to the success of the participants. So yes, I think there will be an effect.

    http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018154
    The Lib Dem polling surge before the last election would suggest that you need to be careful about that.
    In what way?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,395
    @AveryLP

    The economic optimism figure was the one that stood out for me. It does seem that after 3 years the message that the economy is recovering is getting into the public consciousness. Hopefully that will be reinforced this morning. Ministers explaining we have got a long way to go are useful too. We wouldn't want people thinking we can afford another Labour government yet.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Jessop, that's a very important story and shows why the worm should be axed. The group controlling it is too small, too prone to groupthink and if even one zealous idiot happens to be chosen for it they could skew the entire thing.

    I also think frequent polling, such as the daily YouGov, should be banned during elections. They made the news rather than reflecting it in 2010.

    Yes, polls clearly can shape, as well as reflect, public opinion.

    Which is why YouGov comes out early from Murdoch's mob if it's good for their Party.

    Polling should be banned during campaigns in my opinion. Not good for punters or poll companies, but more importantly good for democracy.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,645
    Going round in circles but....

    To say the EU isn't a concern for voters when immigration is the second most important issue is ridiculous

    What kind of immigration is the one we have no control over?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,719
    Recession number 1, implying there was more than one. Chortle.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    CarlottaVance said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    taffys said:



    Getting the economy right clearly isn't a magic bullet, which is why labour are grubbing around for stuff on Crosby.

    It was sleaze, and not the economy, that killed the tories in 1997.


    2015 will not be like that - a first term government that has probably "done ok" and may well be extended the benefit of the doubt against an opposition that has spent the year before the run up on a potentially acrimonious internal feud, and all over a "non-story" too.....

    Which key group that the Tories need to win over will think the Government has "done OK" and will give them the "benefit of the doubt", in your opinion? 2010 Brown voters? Or 2010 LibDems?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This chart is only interesting for the longterm trends, not the shortterm changes. In other words, the economy, immigration and unemployment is where it's all at, with a side order of NHS.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Many more people than one would think are worried about Europe and the EU.
    The thing is most right thinking people are waiving two fingers at some of the poll and official government statistics. I saw the headline in this weeks Economist that makes this very clear, which was: "The curious case of the fall in crime". That magazine doesn't believe those statistics either.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,200
    @carl

    Why is it good for democracy for voters to be in the dark about what other voters are planning to do?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,395
    Completely off topic but my wife is enjoying reading about holidays on her holiday and in particular SeanT's piece on the Maldives.

    He describes an hotel so luxurious that you have a separate plunge pool for your body guards. And then he claims that this is best for families.

    I respectfully suggest that this shows a lack of experience of settled family life and that these hotels should be tested out by someone with, say, 3 children widely spread in age to see how they respond. I would suggest, well, me.

    But I am not jealous. Oh no, not at all. Have the thunder storms stopped yet?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,126
    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    AveryLP said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    @AveryLP

    We've got another Populus poll coming out tomorrow - interesting to see if it has tracked a narrowing like YouGov.

    I gather that we are going to see two polls a week from Populus which is great.

    Has anyone done any research on the impact of published poll results on future polling?

    There must be some self-fulfilling impact. If the news media is full of stories about climbing or falling VI shares then surely it will influence readers and listeners to confirm the trend.

    Last year I mentioned a study that showed the 'worm' that was displayed on the bottom of TV screens during the debates can influence viewers as to the success of the participants. So yes, I think there will be an effect.

    http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0018154
    The Lib Dem polling surge before the last election would suggest that you need to be careful about that.
    In what way?
    If you believe that reporting of good polls for a party influences people to vote for that party then the Lib Dem polling before the last election disproves that theory.
    It doesn't disprove the theory. IMHO there is an effect, but the small effect may be outweighed by many other factors. Without the polling boost, the Lib Dems may not have gained as many votes. In other words, it was one factor amongst many, but a positive one.

    Sadly, it will probably be very hard to create a rigorous experiment for this.

    Besides, I wonder if the polling effect is more pronounced for the 'leading' party. In other words, a few people tend to vote for the party they would like to think will be the winner, and therefore go with the polls?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @DavidL I think you just revealed that you are posting on pb on your holiday.

    You have a much more tolerant other half than I do.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Lilburne, if polling makes weather (especially if one poll comes out very often and therefore has disproportionate weight) then it's influencing rather than reflecting opinion.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There is a lot of marketing evidence to show that being popular is itself a selling point.

    There's a reason why Cathedral City advertises itself as the nation's most popular cheese.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,395
    antifrank said:

    @DavidL I think you just revealed that you are posting on pb on your holiday.

    You have a much more tolerant other half than I do.

    Even more remarkable is that I am doing this on my daughter's computer. But I am about to get kicked off.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,200
    @Morris_Dancer

    And?

    If I as a voter choose to be influenced by evidence of how other voters are planning to vote, surely I as the voter have the right to include that information in my decision making process.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,395
    tim said:

    DavidL said:

    antifrank said:

    @DavidL I think you just revealed that you are posting on pb on your holiday.

    You have a much more tolerant other half than I do.

    Even more remarkable is that I am doing this on my daughter's computer. But I am about to get kicked off.

    Shouldn't you have a filter on that blocking betting sites?
    She is a much more active better than me." George" was her latest success. And Andy Murray. She is, in fairness, 23.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,937
    antifrank said:

    @DavidL I think you just revealed that you are posting on pb on your holiday.

    You have a much more tolerant other half than I do.

    Hopefully not from the dinner table?

    :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm currently posting from the 18.30 from Birmingham New Street. The scandal is that I'm in standard class.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    There are almost no changes at the top in the July Ipsos-MORI Index

    Just the fact that the Tories are dealing with inequality and poverty... As the narrowing of the earnings gap has proven recently...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MikeK said:

    Many more people than one would think are worried about Europe and the EU.

    As a small party Ukip's vote is going to be unusually vulnerable to polling becoming self-fulfilling because of the wasted vote syndrome. Lower polling leads to lower polling and higher polling leads to higher polling.

    Hence the political class' strategy of starving Ukip of by-elections. At the moment i think an MP would have to ritually disembowel a nun outside parliament to get thrown out but there you go.

    Ukip just need to save some money up for their own polling round election time to counter the effect.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Poverty/inequality down to 9% - there lies the failure of the Miliband leadership.

    One of the political openings Labour had was in the way in which Osborne contradicted his "we're all in it together" rhetoric with his policies. Despite most people seeing a fall in living standards - Labour have failed to make this a live political issue.

    Labour were never going to win an argument that Austerity was unnecessary, but they could have won an argument that the way the Tories implemented the policy was unfair and divisive. So far, Labour are failing on this.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,395
    Last post for a while. Off on safari to Animal Kingdom.

    Matt, as usual, has the best comment on the growth figures today: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/

    Absolutely excellent.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Stephen R Jones @Meliden
    *AWKWARD* Church of England invests in Wonga backer - FT.com on.ft.com/13IagiT via @FT
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,513
    antifrank said:

    I'm currently posting from the 18.30 from Birmingham New Street. The scandal is that I'm in standard class.

    Why is that a scandal?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,513
    "Does being an MP make marriage harder?"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23431840
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Andy_JS I seem unaccountably to have ended up in the wrong coach.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    antifrank said:

    @Andy_JS I seem unaccountably to have ended up in the wrong coach.

    It can happen to anyone, even the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Stephen R Jones @Meliden
    *AWKWARD* Church of England invests in Wonga backer - FT.com on.ft.com/13IagiT via @FT

    Welby risks looking like a complete pr*t here. On threads I've read below this story its been pointed out that:-

    The CoE isn't risking a red cent of its vast resources of MONEY - its only loaning its premises and goodwill.

    One reason people use Wonga is speed. They tell you in 15 minutes. Goodness knows how long it takes a credit union. And they might say no.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Payday lender Wonga.com has stepped up its increasingly fractious trade war with the Church of England by announcing a religion.

    As the Church said it was moving into the payday lending business, Wonga said a move into religion was the logical next step for their business.

    Wonga Chief Executive Errol Damelin said, ”We’re both targeting vulnerable people who really should know better – so there’s a lot of synergy here.”

    “The Wonga religion won’t make ridiculous claims about returns you’ll never see, like eternal afterlife. Where’s the fine print on that one, eh Justin?”

    “We can offer men in strange outfits, happy clappy songs and uncomfortable seating – no problem.”Claims that the Wonga religion would be full of logical holes, and be easily dismissed by anyone capable of original thought have been strenuously denied.

    Damelin went on, “We haven’t got all of the details sorted out but we may be working with Wetherspoons, what with them having plenty of cheap bread and wine.”

    “Clearly we don’t have a coherent moral and spiritual code but frankly neither does most of the clergy and at least we can offer gay marriage.”

    Asked if he wanted to take on the Catholic Church he said, “The COE is one thing but when it comes to an ingrained history of child abuse, misplaced guilt, irrational superstition and celibacy we will leave it to the experts.” http://newsthump.com/2013/07/25/wonga-com-retaliates-by-unveiling-believable-religion/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    edited July 2013
    PPP 2016 GOP nomination (national)

    Rand Paul 16% {14%} [17%] (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
    Chris Christie 13% {15%} [15%] (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
    Jeb Bush 13% {15%} [12%] (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
    Paul Ryan 13% {9%} [12%] (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
    Ted Cruz 12% {7%}
    Marco Rubio 10% {16%} [21%] (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
    Bobby Jindal 4% {3%} [4%] (4%) {3%} (3%)
    Rick Santorum 4% {5%} [5%] [4%] (12%)
    Susana Martinez 2% {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%}
    Someone else/Not sure 13% {15%} [10%] (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic nomination (national)

    Hillary Clinton 63%
    Joe Biden 13%
    Andrew Cuomo 6%
    Martin O’Malley 1%
    Unsure 18%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    PPP Wyoming 2016 GOP primary

    Rand Paul 19%
    Chris Christie 14%
    Jeb Bush 13%
    Paul Ryan 11%
    Ted Cruz 9%
    Marco Rubio 9%
    Rick Santorum 4%
    Bobby Jindal 3%
    Susana Martinez 1%
    Someone else/Not sure 18%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    PPP Wyoming 2016 general election

    Chris Christie (R) 56%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 28%

    Paul Ryan (R) 59%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 32%

    Jeb Bush (R) 58%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 31%

    Rand Paul (R) 58%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 32%

    Marco Rubio (R) 56%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 32%
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,200
    @tim

    Worth noting that the figures have been made public and that Public Health England is investigating the reason for them.

    And that bloke Dorling is making stuff up to fit an agenda.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @HYUFD

    I see my horse is storming to the heights of 1%! Go, Martin, you're probably related to me!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    tim said:

    @MichaelLCrick: According to a good Conservative source, party membership was just 133,000 at the end of 2012, + has probably fallen to c.100,000 since then

    That's a dying party.

    This is not just a Tory party problem.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What does a bad day for Labour look like?

    The day Ed "I'm not a father" Miliband appointed Andy Burnham and Ed Balls

    Ed, your boys took a hell of a beating...
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited July 2013
    Clarence Mitchell of BBC's and McCann's fame selected by the Tories in Brighton Pavilion. He beats JP Floru and Michelle Lowe
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    tim said:

    MrJones said:


    MikeK said:

    Many more people than one would think are worried about Europe and the EU.

    As a small party Ukip's vote is going to be unusually vulnerable to polling becoming self-fulfilling because of the wasted vote syndrome. Lower polling leads to lower polling and higher polling leads to higher polling.

    Hence the political class' strategy of starving Ukip of by-elections. At the moment i think an MP would have to ritually disembowel a nun outside parliament to get thrown out but there you go.

    Ukip just need to save some money up for their own polling round election time to counter the effect.

    That's an excellent conspiracy theory.
    David Miliband, Louise Mensch and Chris Huhne have conspired across the political class to deprive UKIP of by elections
    Those by-elections are why they don't want any more.

    None of liblabcon want by-elections at the mo hence no fuss over Hancock, Mercer and Yeo.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,200
    @Plato

    I thought the Daily Mash was better http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/archbishop-admits-he-hasnt-read-bit-in-bible-about-moneylenders-2013072576913

    And I enjoyed this item about cats http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/science-technology/cats-actually-disgusting-2013072576831
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    Very odd video posted by Andy JS a few threads back, Jeremy Thorpe being interviewed by Jimmy Saville and questioned by a young Gerald Howarth looking almost dandyish
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    In Ed Balls seat they'd dwindled to very little.

    Fewer than 100 - I find that genuinely shocking. Cant be very many activists. A bigger operation may well have taken Balls out.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    BREAKING NEWS...Old people die...who'd a thunk it...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    edited July 2013
    Neil - Well you never know, stranger things have happened.

    Tim - classic! You also mentioned a few threads back the Australian Liberals have no party to their right like UKIP, well they did used to have One Nation, remember Pauline Hanson? and One Nation actually won MPs. Of course the National Party in the Coalition is also technically more conservative, indeed one reason former PM Malcolm Fraser has left the Liberal Party is because he says Abbott has made it into a conservative, rather than a liberal party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    Osborne works the night shift
    http://playpolitical.typepad.com/uk_conservative/2013/07/watch-as-growth-figures-are-released-osborne-joins-the-night-shift.html
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    edited July 2013
    'Growth must reach the north and low-earners' (Osborne):

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3825516.ece
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,513
    In Brighton Pavilion we now await the LD selection:

    Green: Caroline Spelman
    Lab: Purna Sen
    Con: Clarence Mitchell

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFkzTjFrRmJRN3F6ODBTTEs4NGFhcUE#gid=0
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,513
    Carola said:

    'Growth must reach the north and low-earners (Osborne):

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3825516.ece

    Sounds like Thatcher in 1987.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    edited July 2013
    May have already been posted, but most LD activists prefer a coalition with Labour.
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/leftwatch/2013/07/a-reality-check-most-libdem-members-prefer-a-post-2015-coalition-with-labour-to-one-with-the-conserv.html
    Of course LD voters may disagree
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,937
    Scott_P said:

    What does a bad day for Labour look like?

    The day Ed "I'm not a father" Miliband appointed Andy Burnham and Ed Balls

    Ed, your boys took a hell of a beating...

    "Lord Falconer, Lord Prescott, Jim Callaghan, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair, Henry Manson, Lady Hermon, we have beaten them all, we have beaten them all. Ed Miliband, can you hear me? Ed Miliband your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Andy_JS said:

    Carola said:

    'Growth must reach the north and low-earners (Osborne):

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3825516.ece

    Sounds like Thatcher in 1987.
    No paywall - nor for anything else. Is there a Times happy hour?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Carola said:

    'Growth must reach the north and low-earners (Osborne):

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3825516.ece

    Sounds like Thatcher in 1987.
    He means the house price bubble must go national and not just cover the SE and London.
    The Help to Buy scheme has resulted in far fewer purchases in London than in any other region of the country.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    the extension of the scheme up to £600k properties and remortgaging is specifically designed to impact on London and the South East.

    Help to Buy applies to properties up to 600k. And the data shows that take up is far lower in London than any other region. Can you explain how the scheme from January 2014 is "specifically designed to impact on London and the South East"?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    Chuka clearly being marked for big things, here he is yesterday with the Vice President of China
    http://twitpic.com/d4mj40
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Mr. Lilburne, if one polling firm releases polls several times more often than others then having the polls put out during the electoral process means far more weight will be given to that polling company.

    In addition, we know about statistical noise (ie polls are slightly bouncy, hence the margin of error), so if, for argument's sake, UKIP lost 3 points and the Lib Dems gained 3 points and this made media headway then an effectively meaningless change (due to statistical noise) would result in positive media coverage for the yellows and negative for the purples which could start a trend or alter the campaigning landscape.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    taffys said:

    Stephen R Jones @Meliden
    *AWKWARD* Church of England invests in Wonga backer - FT.com on.ft.com/13IagiT via @FT

    Welby risks looking like a complete pr*t here. On threads I've read below this story its been pointed out that:-

    The CoE isn't risking a red cent of its vast resources of MONEY - its only loaning its premises and goodwill.

    One reason people use Wonga is speed. They tell you in 15 minutes. Goodness knows how long it takes a credit union. And they might say no.

    At least he's not calling for Wonga to be legislated against, he's advocating for a civil society alternative instead. I quite like it.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Are your brains in your genes?

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8970941/sorry-but-intelligence-really-is-in-the-genes/

    The research paper is in my (mostly never gets read) reading pile:

    http://genepi.qimr.edu.au/contents/p/staff/HaworthCMetalBehavGenettJuly09.pdf
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MrJones said:


    MikeK said:

    Many more people than one would think are worried about Europe and the EU.

    As a small party Ukip's vote is going to be unusually vulnerable to polling becoming self-fulfilling because of the wasted vote syndrome. Lower polling leads to lower polling and higher polling leads to higher polling.

    Hence the political class' strategy of starving Ukip of by-elections. At the moment i think an MP would have to ritually disembowel a nun outside parliament to get thrown out but there you go.

    Ukip just need to save some money up for their own polling round election time to counter the effect.

    How many people are actually aware of the various parties standing in the polls? How much impact would one UKIP sponsered poll have?

    Before UKIP's 23% result in the May 2013 elections their highest ever poll was 17%.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,896
    Just heard about Welby/Wonga. John Ch8, vv1-11 springs to mind.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    Neil said:

    tim said:

    the extension of the scheme up to £600k properties and remortgaging is specifically designed to impact on London and the South East.

    Help to Buy applies to properties up to 600k. And the data shows that take up is far lower in London than any other region. Can you explain how the scheme from January 2014 is "specifically designed to impact on London and the South East"?
    What percentage of remortgaging is anywhere near £600k outside London and the South East?
    What percentage of new build property is anywhere near 600k outside London and yet London has the lowest take-up of the current Help to Buy scheme of any region in the country.

    Even if take up is higher in London for the new scheme from 2014 you havent made a convincing case that it is "specifically designed to impact on London and the South East". I'll await the numbers to see if that's the case, you'll spin your line regardless (and move on to your next line if it doesnt turn out to be the case).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear
    Labour paid no corporation tax last year despite being in surplus for its sixth year, the party’s annual accounts revealed yesterday.

    Three months after Ed Miliband criticised irresponsible tax avoidance, it has emerged that his own party reduced its corporation tax bill from £561,000 to zero by offsetting expenses and tax losses held over from 2011.

    Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats paid tax in 2012, although the corporation tax bill for the Lib Dems was just £15, a tiny figure following a profit of £66 on their investments and commercial activities. Almost all their money comes from donations, which are not taxable. The Tories paid £521,000 tax in 2012 after generating £1.46 million income.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3825577.ece
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Labour paid no corporation tax last year despite being in surplus for its sixth year, the party’s annual accounts revealed yesterday. Three months after Ed Miliband criticised irresponsible tax avoidance, it has emerged that his own party reduced its corporation tax bill from £561,000 to zero by offsetting expenses and tax losses held over from 2011.

    Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats paid tax in 2012, although the corporation tax bill for the Lib Dems was just £15, a tiny figure following a profit of £66 on their investments and commercial activities. Almost all their money comes from donations, which are not taxable. The Tories paid £521,000 tax in 2012 after generating £1.46 million income.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh dear indeed - that's what happens when you get lots of free advice from PWC on tax!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Oh dear indeed, what an utterly stupid thing to do as a political party after you have spent the last few years preaching to big business on this issue? Its classic Labour, do as we say, not as we do. Did the party learn nothing from the embarrassment caused to Ken Livingstone's campaign when his own tax arrangements came under scrutiny?
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear

    Labour paid no corporation tax last year despite being in surplus for its sixth year, the party’s annual accounts revealed yesterday.

    Three months after Ed Miliband criticised irresponsible tax avoidance, it has emerged that his own party reduced its corporation tax bill from £561,000 to zero by offsetting expenses and tax losses held over from 2011.

    Both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats paid tax in 2012, although the corporation tax bill for the Lib Dems was just £15, a tiny figure following a profit of £66 on their investments and commercial activities. Almost all their money comes from donations, which are not taxable. The Tories paid £521,000 tax in 2012 after generating £1.46 million income.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3825577.ece

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    fitalass said:

    Its classic Labour, do as we say, not as we do.

    What in particular have they done that they have complained about businesses doing?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:

    got a link to the regional data

    Click on the graphic on the left:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/14e1ede6-f2f9-11e2-802f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2a5cqn6MD
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Labour leader has repeatedly rejected the ways that companies use deductions to minimise or eradicate their tax bill, criticising the internet giant Google for generating significant income but paying less than a fraction of one per cent of that in tax.

    “When Google goes to extraordinary lengths to avoid paying its taxes, I say it’s wrong,” he said in May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,286
    Carola - Yes, saw that, interesting if controversial
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited July 2013
    tim said:


    Nope, nothing there about offsetting the previous years losses.
    Keep looking

    Who said anything about previous years losses.

    Ed criticised Google for minimising their tax bill.

    NewsSense™. Labour tax avoidance is a non-story...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tim's going to love the front of the mail ;-)

    https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/360504103798968320/photo/1
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Scott_P said:


    Ed criticised Google for minimising their tax bill.

    No, he criticised them for going to extraordinary lengths to avoid taxes. It's right there in the quote you pasted.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Tykejohnno

    Isnt that just jumping on the Gordon Brown bandwagon?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Neil said:

    @Tykejohnno

    Isnt that just jumping on the Gordon Brown bandwagon?

    It's jumping on the real world bandwagon.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    tim said:


    Clueless and pointless as ever.

    All of your posts are. No need to annotate.
    tim said:


    Find a quote saying business should not offset a previous years loss against corporation tax for us.

    Find one yourself if that's what you want.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Her Majesty's Attorney General's application, under section 36 of the Criminal Justice Act 1988, for leave to refer a sentence passed by His Honour Judge Russell QC on James Stuart Hall at the Crown Court at Preston will be heard by the Criminal Division of the Court of Appeal (Lord Judge CJ, Rafferty LJ & Macur J) tomorrow morning.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Neil said:

    Scott_P said:


    Ed criticised Google for minimising their tax bill.

    No, he criticised them for going to extraordinary lengths to avoid taxes. It's right there in the quote you pasted.
    The Labour leader has repeatedly rejected the ways that companies use deductions to minimise or eradicate their tax bill, criticising the internet giant Google for generating significant income but paying less than a fraction of one per cent of that in tax.
    Labour tax avoidance, non-story. (c) NewsSense™
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,569
    Terrible politics from the Labour party, especially at a time when they are receiving a bumper trench of taxpayers money as the only main Opposition.
    Scott_P said:

    tim said:


    Nope, nothing there about offsetting the previous years losses.
    Keep looking

    Who said anything about previous years losses.

    Ed criticised Google for minimising their tax bill.

    NewsSense™. Labour tax avoidance is a non-story...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    fitalass said:

    Terrible politics from the Labour party, especially at a time when they are receiving a bumper trench of taxpayers money as the only main Opposition.

    Scott_P said:

    tim said:


    Nope, nothing there about offsetting the previous years losses.
    Keep looking

    Who said anything about previous years losses.

    Ed criticised Google for minimising their tax bill.

    NewsSense™. Labour tax avoidance is a non-story...
    Precisely, terrible politics. When your Party gets about the same funding as the Tories but they pay £500k in tax and you pay nothing - it really doesn't matter if its 'all within the rules'

    Google etc were all within the rules too and have an obligation to their shareholders to be fiscally prudent. They also don't go round ticking others off for it.

    Man in the Street will just think Hypocrites. And they'd be dead right, it's no good for Labour to try to explain this way with accounting rules - that just looks shifty.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    "We're all in this together" politics.
    Keoghs Solicitors ‏@KeoghsSolicitor 6h

    RT @TelegraphNews Three-quarters of over-50s say they are opposed to MPs' pay rise http://ow.ly/1ZWZ9n
    Crikey! etc. ;^ )
  • PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 667
    NEW THREAD
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