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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the Times has got this right then the referendum is less than eight months away
The week looks set to be dominated by the EU referendum with a big speech by Cameron tomorrow and reports in the Times that David and George would like the vote to take place as soon as possible with June being seen as the earliest possible date.
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By June 2016 Cameron would still have 18 months of time to play with in respect of his pledge. Why would he go then unless he has a deal he thinks he can sell?
to DavidL, Dr Fox and Mr Herdson.
I’m obliged.
And...
@make_trouble: Here's Corbyn welcoming General Dannatt's intervention on Iraq in 2006 https://t.co/lApi53RdvO https://t.co/5efYwN5nF3
@TotalPolitics: New from @GPW_Portland: Eurosceptic Cameron is eyeing up an EU vote in September https://t.co/RDBCChSqYS https://t.co/mXc9AU2P7M
If he's going for a referendum in June then that means he really has to have a deal signed in blood by Easter.
Edit: I note in that article that other EU leaders have persuaded him not to delay further because the migrant crisis may otherwise overshadow it next Summer. Of course, it suits them to get any uncertainty out of the way asap too.
A despicable tactic. I wonder if he'd be making the security argument if someone other than a unilateralist were Labour leader.
Newspapers have licence to make this stuff up for the next few months based on nothing more than a conversation with a Downing Street tea boy.
"Labour Leave" doesn't seem to have gained much traction in our branch by the way. I seem to be in a minority of one!
The question is how long it takes 28 EU member states to sign.
Of course the tragedy is that we then went to do the same thing all over again in Afghan.
That intervention should bolster Jezza in the eyes of those reading it now; not sure if the idea of re-circulating it was to criticise him. If so, it shows what an idiot "Victoria Freeman" is.
Weren't the eurosceptics calling for an early referendum not so long ago? And doubting that Cameron would call one?
The United Kingdom Of Great Britain And Northern Ireland Will Never Leave The European Union Under David Cameron
TUKOGBANIWNLTEUUDC
Those were the days when Kippers thought they'd have 102 MPs in May.
'Europe’s single market is a cosy corporate club'
'I suspect this is why the single market has had virtually no macroeconomic impact — for example on aggregate productivity or gross domestic product. When EU ministers and officials come together to harmonise national rules, they do not think much about the citizens whose interests the economy is ultimately supposed to serve....All that counts is the interests of producers'
'we should end the glorification of the EU’s single market. I seriously question the wisdom of the pro-EU lobby in the UK, which has endorsed the single market as the main reason to stay in the EU'
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/887423c4-8478-11e5-8e80-1574112844fd.html#axzz3qvwJD1fO
This would have then become the official opposition and left all of Labour's debts, and Corbyn, behind.
Of course, it got absolutely nowhere.
The only case I can think of was AV (which killed the LD Tory relationship), otherwise they just pour fuel on the flames.
If it's a legitimate expense he's entitled to claim. Just because he's paid a lot that doesn't mean he has to subsidise his employer - and good on him for taking a bus rather than a taxi.
At the end of the day, I don't think our best interests are served by leaving.. It would leave an irreparable scar. Not good.
If it's a legitimate expense he's entitled to claim. Just because he's paid a lot that doesn't mean he has to subsidise his employer - and good on him for taking a bus rather than a taxi.
Hear, her. In the private sector it would have been a Net Jet.
In recent years I have acquired several that Mrs JackW ....
As for an irreparable scar, if we can get over World War Two, we can get over an EU exit.
I wonder how many voters know how much the Chief Executive of their local Council is paid. I suspect the only ones who care are those who think taxation is theft.
That's a different issue. It seems far too high for a bureaucrat. But I have no problem with him claiming a bus ticket.
Once I've been there I'll publish it. It just needs a final polish.
If he wins the EU referendum, then he will have won four general elections/nationwide plebiscites.
Something not even Thatcher or Blair managed. Add in his victory in the Indyref and we can conclude Dave is in undisputed king of elections and quite good at politics.
The Chief Exec of Caerphilly Council is paid vastly more than the Prime Minister. He has been suspended on full pay for the past two years, along with two other top executives, for misuse of office. On being suspended, there was an allegation of 'unlawful' conduct, so the executives were investigated by Avon and Somerset police. It took two years for them to present a case to the CPS, but the CPS deemed that there was insufficient evidence to bring a criminal prosecution.
So now we have the brilliant situation whereby three executives can restart work at the council, but given the widespread belief that they were in the wrong, it is politically impossible for them to do so. So they need to be paid off with golden handshakes.
I heard last week that the suspensions have cost CCBC over £2million, all during a period when the council is trying to axe jobs (CCBC behaved pretty well during the overspending years, so their funding cuts - although tough - are less focussed on jobs than others).
The Welsh Government is going to ask for compensation against A&S police, but I doubt that will win out.
All very unsatisfactory.
In this EU referendum, he has made the negotiator's schoolboy error. Speaking as someone who has spent 25 years negotiating contracts with some of the world's less savory regimes and corporate majors, the one thing they can NEVER know is that before you have even started talking, you will sign the deal - whatever the terms.
You just CANNOT say that leaving the EU risks the nation's economic and national security. You have offered the voters their say. Arguably doing so got you to lead a majority Govt. In which case, let them have their say on the terms you have brought back from Brussels. At the very least, he needed to have the European leaders and Eurocrats believe that he would neutrally put the new terms before the voters. Ideally, that if they were not adequate, he would recommend LEAVE.
But Cameron has blown it. He's gone all Dr Venkman from Ghostbusters on us:
Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
If I had gone into Shell and said that it is the end of my company if we don't sign this deal - as Cameron has effectively done - they would have politley listened to each of my points and said "No. Next?"
"A sea anchor (also known as a drift anchor, drift sock, para-anchor or boat brake) is a device used to stabilize a boat in heavy weather. Rather than tethering the boat to the seabed, the sea anchor increases the drag through the water and thus acts as a brake. When attached to the stern of a vessel, a sea anchor can prevent the vessel from turning broadside to the waves and being overwhelmed by them."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_anchor
In this case it makes sense. Danczuk is trying to stabilise the party by preventing it from turning broadside to the political waves and being overwhelmed by the voters' antipathy.
You work in the public sector, right?
Don't bake that assumption into any career plans you might make would be my advice
In principle I have no problem with him claiming legitimate travel expenses, but I question the mindset of somebody taking the trouble to claim £1.40. Its this entitlement culture that irks me.
Despicable maybe? Bloody effective when Dave is making that point.
So now we have the brilliant situation whereby three executives can restart work at the council, but given the widespread belief that they were in the wrong, it is politically impossible for them to do so. So they need to be paid off with golden handshakes.
I heard last week that the suspensions have cost CCBC over £2million, all during a period when the council is trying to axe jobs (CCBC behaved pretty well during the overspending years, so their funding cuts - although tough - are less focussed on jobs than others).
The Welsh Government is going to ask for compensation against A&S police, but I doubt that will win out.
All very unsatisfactory.
Wrong.
Its clear his negotiations are going nowhere, he is now prepared to say that if we leave the EU there'll be a war. He really is a pathetic individual.
Probably submitted with other expenses on the same trip. I've claimed for less for individual items on previous trips. If I hadn't done so, cumulatively I would be significantly out of pocket.
It's only an error of that sort if you assume the PM actually wants to achieve something substantial. If on the other hand he is simply acting out a charade to try to get a 'yes' vote in a referendum then the picture changes.
Whether the voters here are quite as stupid as he and his friends in the FO think and will be taken in easily by such a smokescreen is another question of course.
What have you claimed for that cost less than £1.40?
Yep, and I'm not making a political point on this. I'm aware that Plaid, Labour and the Cons are all equally frustrated at the outcome - but demonstrates how you end up with a public feeling screwed! (the public here are seething, as you can imagine. And they haven't received notification of the double inflation rise to their annual council tax yet.....)
As in this case, fares on public transit.
If you're paying less than £1.40 why didn't you just walk? What right do you have to expect taxpayers to fund you sitting on a bus for 2 or 3 minutes?
A Kipper lecturing others on expenses. I've seen it all now.
Where's the "entitlement culture" in claiming legitimate business travel expenses? I can see the point when he comes to massive public sector pensions, but if the bus cost £1.40 then it cost £1.40 and there'll be a receipt.
I can't imagine how far you ride on a bus for £1.40. Its the entitlement culture that is endemic.
I claimed last week for £2.30 in tube tickets.
The mindset is that I dumped a bunch of receipts on my assistant's desk and asked her to process them.
You'd be surprised how far it can take you in some places, and I wouldn't go on it for just 2 or 3 minutes.
Typical puerile response.
So you get to fly Net Jets. Lucky you.
The mindset is that I dumped a bunch of receipts on my assistant's desk and asked her to process them.
You make my point nicely, a minion employed to steal from the taxpayer because you believe you're entitled to it.
You'll be the one that cheers when tax credits are cut.
As an example, in Phoenix, you could travel about 25 miles on a single $1.75 bus fare when I was there.
But based on facts
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11735886/Former-Ukip-MEP-jailed-over-500k-expenses-fraud.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-expenses-storm-ukip-6377358
I can't remember him making the comments you assert he made about Miliband and Defence, to be honest. I think they're legitimate about Corbyn, who is both unilateralist and has said he finds it hard to think of any circumstance in which he'd commit British armed forces.
And why must we be in the EU for defence? Who is to invade us if we leave? If we leave, will bilateral and multilateral intelligence co-operation with other nations end?
What great and powerful advantage will we lose in this area?
You'll be the one that cheers when tax credits are cut.
I don't think Charles works for the taxpayer, although I could be mistaken.
It adds up.
What on earth was a public servant doing in Phoenix? Don't tell me, some sort of bonding exercise.
Indeed, if the EU is so wonderful, why all this talk of renegotiation?
Will TSE do an IOS if DC loses the EU Ref
Who says I'm a public servant?
A: His lips are moving.
(Or he starts using terms like "cast iron" or "no-ifs no-buts")
Are Ukip the ONLY party that has been called out over expenses?
As I say, puerile.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11523619/Tories-Ed-Miliband-will-leave-UK-open-to-nuclear-blackmail-if-he-does-deal-with-SNP.html
Trident row: Cameron defends Fallon's attack on Miliband
Prime minister says defence secretary right to question Labour’s approach to renewal of nuclear programme in ‘pretty frank way’
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/09/trident-row-cameron-defends-fallons-attack-on-miliband
You'll be the one that cheers when tax credits are cut.
1. My assistant is a qualified, highly professional individual; she is not a minion
2. It is not stealing, because legitimate business expenses are permitted expense (in this case it was the tube to Paddington to catch the train to Heathrow)
3. I don't work for the public sector; the tax payer has nothing to do with this
4. Entitlement doesn't come into it: my employer is getting a free loan from me when I fund expenses and I am just arranging for repayment (without interest)
5. I won't cheer when tax credits are cut. I think it is necessary, but it's going to be painful for a lot of people.
But apart from that... yes, I made your point nicely.
Yes, that was a legitimate attack.
No, it doesn't make the EU comments legitimate. Will the EU force us to destroy our nuclear subs if we leave?
I ask again: what great and powerful advantage that we currently enjoy will be lost if we leave the EU?
There are two other problems. The reforms he is proposing do not address the concerns of EU-Leavers (migration, democracy, financial accountability etc). Second, if he WINS, he will have a disgruntled core of backbenchers (1992 and all that) and I think politically his problems are only just beginning. If he LOSES, he's no longer PM, surely.
I can only assume the EU referendum was a policy that was to be negotiated away during coalition talks after May... whoops.
2. It is not stealing, because legitimate business expenses are permitted expense (in this case it was the tube to Paddington to catch the train to Heathrow)
3. I don't work for the public sector; the tax payer has nothing to do with this
4. Entitlement doesn't come into it: my employer is getting a free loan from me when I fund expenses and I am just arranging for repayment (without interest)
5. I won't cheer when tax credits are cut. I think it is necessary, but it's going to be painful for a lot of people.
But apart from that... yes, I made your point nicely.
My reply to you is the same as mine to Rob, if you work in the private sector expenses are nobody else's business.
If I and other PBers disappeared after every bad call PB would be a very quiet place.
I will never display IOS' levels of hubris.
Honestly whenever I want a laugh I go back to the PB threads 48 hours before the exit poll came out. Is an utter hoot. I will buy IOS a pint for all the laughs he's given me.
I did use the word "if" in my original post.
Fear not PBers rarely recall such calamities.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11735886/Former-Ukip-MEP-jailed-over-500k-expenses-fraud.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-expenses-storm-ukip-6377358
Ever heard of throwing stones in glasshouses?