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edited July 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories get to within 3 percent in tonight’s YouGov poll

These figures are bound to cheer the Tories though the CON rise is not at the expense of LAB or the LDs but from UKIP – which is seeing a decline.

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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Dave's silly porn filter wot done it?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Is it me or are pollsters these days more open to criticising their competitors?

    Last week we say Peter Kellner critique ICM, and tonight Damian Lyons of Survation critiquing YouGov.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dave's silly porn filter wot done it?

    Is that what's caused UKIP to droop?

  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There does seem to be some narrowing of the gap with YouGov. The greater significance of such polls is on party morale.
  • carl
    carl Posts: 750
    Probably bouncy, maybe trendy, who knows. Daily polls eh.
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    FPT:
    tim said:

    I assume Dan Hodges predicted a girl

    He's been busy putting his 'magic touch' on the cricket.
    Dan Hodges: Ashes 2013: Every true Englishman should pray for an Australian victory at Lord's

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100226379/ashes-2013-every-true-englishman-should-pray-for-an-australian-victory-at-lords/
    LOL

    Still not quite up there with Seth O Logue's inept spin when he predicted that Lansley would be PM, but pretty amusing all the same.

    ;)
  • JohnLoony
    JohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Only 3 points? Royal Baby Bounce?
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    CarlottaVance said:

    Anthony Wells on the YouGov/

    'The Sun politics team have tweeted out tonight’s YouGov poll already, the topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 10%. This is the lowest Labour lead YouGov have shown for over a year

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7867

    Now theres a surprise. When the Conservatives have a 10 point lead at the end of 2014 some people will still be saying that swingback isn't occurring. :0
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Newsnight leads with the royal baby. PBC leads with the daily yougov poll. That's why I prefer PBC!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Yay more referenda/referendums/plebiscites thanks to the right wing MPs

    Netanyahu planning referendum law for any peace deal with Palestinians

    Under pressure from right-wing members of his government, Netanyahu plans to introduce a law which will make ratification of any agreement dependent on a public referendum.

    http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/.premium-1.537094
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited July 2013
    The Son

    http://www.politicshome.com/timthumb.php?w=578&src=/images/1.1.Front_Pages/the_sun_220713.jpg
  • Tom_Papworth
    Tom_Papworth Posts: 1
    How does 340 seats give Labour a majority of 30?
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    "These figures are bound to cheer the Tories though the CON rise is not at the expense of LAB or the LDs but from UKIP – which is seeing a decline."
    Because the swivel-eyed loons have stopped running around like headless chickens over Europe and immigration. However laughable NannyCam's risible internet posturing may be it certainly isn't banging on about Europe or immigration.

    Perhaps the penny has finally dropped for CCHQ?
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Tom_Papworth said:

    How does 340 seats give Labour a majority of 30?

    The table doesnt cover the 18 NI seats. Still a house of 650 so 340 to 310.

  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Neil said:

    Newsnight leads with the royal baby. PBC leads with the daily yougov poll. That's why I prefer PBC!

    First time I've really missed the Like button!

  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Under pressure from right-wing members of his government, Netanyahu plans to introduce a law which will make ratification of any agreement dependent on a public referendum.

    I wonder who will get to vote in it.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    SeanT said:

    fpt for tse

    Nah, bollocks. The Queen will have a gobsmacking imperial send-off, Charles will become a beloved old eccentric king with a horsey wife (he's already rising fast in popularity), meanwhile we will watch the baby grow, with his beautiful mum, remembering Diana the dead grandmother (sob!).

    This is the genius of royalty: it makes one family everyone's family, it makes one story everyone's story. You may decry it as bogus or theatrical or absurd, but it plucks at the human heart the way mere politics never can.

    The British royal family would have to serially rape goldplated caribou, live, on TV, every day, for about a decade, before republicanism might possibly gain a foothold. Absent that, we will remain a monarchy. Moreover: monarchies work. 10 or more of the top 20 economies, in terms of GDP per capita, are monarchies

    I understand and agree with that.

    But maybe The Prince of Wales will live the same age as his Mother/Grandmother, and if that happens, The Duke of Cambridge will be in his 50/60s when he becomes King, and lustre of Duke and Duchess of Cambridge ain't that strong.

    I'm just being overly harsh against the Prince of Wales
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Now we have fully entered the Silly Baby Season I think that the UKIP percentages are holding up quite nicely. I remember when a summer doldrum poll of UKIP at 10% would have caused political earthquakes at party HQ's. Now its the norm.

    My name for the royal baby: Richard.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    I think the Indie's sub editor forgot to check the Births announcements.

  • GeoffM
    GeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Neil said:

    I wonder who will get to vote in it.

    Anyone currently living in Scotland.

  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    According to this poll the Tories have returned to their 2010 numbers despite UKIP's rise from 3 % to 10 %. Half of Labour's 38 % is made up of LibDem/Green/Non-voter froth that will be blown away over the next couple of years.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    Under pressure from right-wing members of his government, Netanyahu plans to introduce a law which will make ratification of any agreement dependent on a public referendum.

    I wonder who will get to vote in it.
    When they decide, I'm sure we'll be looking forward to the observations of the Lib Dem MP from Bradford.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    *Titter*
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    UKIP are doing rather well IMO given the complete lack of publicity the party has had since the May elections.
  • carl
    carl Posts: 750
    @JosiasJessop

    FPT

    It is perfectly possible to believe that man is warming the climate (the argument you give above), whilst also believing that the effect is minuscule compared to the natural climatic variations. And that is something that is far from being proven scientifically.

    There is also the other heretical point of view that it may be cheaper, easier and safer to perform mitigation for the effects of climate change, rather than try to stop AGW.

    Well yes, it's a free country, it's possible to believe what the heck you want, moon is made of cheese, the sky is green and the grass is blue.

    That aside, your first point is wholly incorrect. All the theories for "natural variations" explaining the observed trends are undermined by the evidence, in contrast to the theory that they are primarily driven by human activity, which is strongly supported by the evidence. This is why the theory is so "popular".

    If we trust in the scientific process (and beyond the usual caveats you highlighted earlier there's no reason not to, it's been hugely successful and produced the modern world we see around us) then we have to accept the theory is likely to be right.

    As for your second point, that's my view entirely. I think we're too far gone, it's so serious now and progress in stopping it has been too slow for political reasons, so we're better focusing on mitigation. Unfortunately, we probably won't do that either, for political reasons.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Public opinion will occasionally turn against the monarchy as it did in the 1990s for a while. The question is whether they can always turn things around as they did then.
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB lead down to just 3% in latest YouGov/Sun poll Lab 38 Con 35 LD 11 UKIP 10.
    Poor old NF and the kippers. Back to playing second fiddle to Clegg. The shame!

    *titters* ;^ )
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450g/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    Good judgment. If half a dozen rivals are all covering the same story it makes sense to be different. The "i" once promised to have no royal news at all, though they eventually backtracked a bit.

    The Tories are making progress on getting UKIP down to 5% - there's some genuine swingback there since the UKIP vote was partly a classic protest. The Labour vote looks as stable as usual.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450g/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    Good judgment. If half a dozen rivals are all covering the same story it makes sense to be different. The "i" once promised to have no royal news at all, though they eventually backtracked a bit.

    The Tories are making progress on getting UKIP down to 5% - there's some genuine swingback there since the UKIP vote was partly a classic protest. The Labour vote looks as stable as usual.
    Come on nick,you must be worried ;-)

  • carl
    carl Posts: 750
    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450g/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    The Labour vote looks as stable as usual.
    Yeah, and therein lies the problem for the Tories, as Mike pointed out above.

    Labour poll mid 30's, as looks likely, and Ed is PM.
    Labour poll in the mid-high 30s, as looks very possible, and Ed is PM with a majority,
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    "[TV presenter Kirstie Allsopp] said: 'I find Michael Gove very entertaining. The most fun I had recently at a dinner party was watching him get up and start gentleman rapping.' ... Gentleman rappers mimic famous American and British rappers but they sing about English pursuits such as cricket and afternoon tea."
    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5027022/Michael-Gove-outed-as-a-gentleman-rapper.html
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Also, maybe I am blind, but haven't we just had a whole thread on the royal birth?
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Mick_Pork said:

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

    LAB lead down to just 3% in latest YouGov/Sun poll Lab 38 Con 35 LD 11 UKIP 10.
    Poor old NF and the kippers. Back to playing second fiddle to Clegg. The shame!

    *titters* ;^ )

    UKIP 10 %

    Nationalist parties ( BNP , SNP , PC ,SF ) 2.26 %
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    English Defence League leader endorses Ukip. This is a nightmare for Nigel Farage


    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100210451/english-defence-league-leader-endorses-ukip-this-is-a-nightmare-for-nigel-farage/

    David Cameron: UKIP 'A Bunch Of Fruitcakes, Loonies And Closet Racists'

    https://audioboo.fm/boos/1079562-david-cameron-ukip-a-bunch-of-fruitcakes-loonies-and-closet-racist
    :)
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    David Cameron can’t say it, but the PM is set on another coalition

    The electoral facts of life are stacked against the Conservatives, and the Prime Minister and his team know it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10195412/David-Cameron-cant-say-it-but-the-PM-isset-on-another-coalition.html
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    In case it has not been mentioned, Brian Binley MP to leave politics at the next election
    http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2013/07/brian-binley-mp-to-leave-the-commons-at-the-next-election.html
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    New England College/NH Journal - NH 2016

    Rand Paul 19% (15%)
    Chris Christie 17.5% (12%)
    Marco Rubio 13% (17%)
    Paul Ryan 9.5% (12%)
    Kelly Ayotte 8.6%
    Rick Santorum 5.5% (4%)
    Bobby Jindal 2.5% (2%)
    Rick Perry 2.1%
    Scott Walker 1.8%
    Unsure 20% (17%)
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Tykejohnno said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450g/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    Good judgment. If half a dozen rivals are all covering the same story it makes sense to be different. The "i" once promised to have no royal news at all, though they eventually backtracked a bit.

    The Tories are making progress on getting UKIP down to 5% - there's some genuine swingback there since the UKIP vote was partly a classic protest. The Labour vote looks as stable as usual.
    Come on nick,you must be worried ;-)

    Ask me again after Saturday week :-)
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    @HYUFD

    I see Santorum is surging in New Hampshire.

    Forgive me but it may be one of the last times we get to say that.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Harper Polling Wyoming 2016 GOP primary Senate


    Mike Enzi 55%
    Liz Cheney 21%
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Good luck on Saturday week, Nick!
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 General Election

    Chris Christie (R) 41%
    Hillary Clinton (D) 41%

    Chris Christie (R) 49%
    Joe Biden (D) 32%

    Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
    Scott Walker (R) 39%

    Scott Walker (R) 42%
    Joe Biden (D) 39%
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Neil - Forgiven, but another good result for Rand!
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450g/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    Good judgment. If half a dozen rivals are all covering the same story it makes sense to be different. The "i" once promised to have no royal news at all, though they eventually backtracked a bit.

    The Tories are making progress on getting UKIP down to 5% - there's some genuine swingback there since the UKIP vote was partly a classic protest. The Labour vote looks as stable as usual.
    Come on nick,you must be worried ;-)

    Ask me again after Saturday week :-)
    Why,whats going on Saturday week ? your reincarnation as a labour candidate ?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Mick_Pork said:

    English Defence League leader endorses Ukip. This is a nightmare for Nigel Farage


    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100210451/english-defence-league-leader-endorses-ukip-this-is-a-nightmare-for-nigel-farage/

    David Cameron: UKIP 'A Bunch Of Fruitcakes, Loonies And Closet Racists'

    https://audioboo.fm/boos/1079562-david-cameron-ukip-a-bunch-of-fruitcakes-loonies-and-closet-racist
    :)

    No nightmare whatsoever. UKIP will continue to ignore the EDL and the growth of UKIP will continue.

    Micky Pork riding the coattails of a not very interesting history geek. Must be the weather, but I could have sworn I just heard thunder outside my window.

  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited July 2013
    MikeK said:

    UKIP will continue to ignore the EDL and the growth of UKIP will continue.

    You've grown from 0 MPs to.. *checks* 0 MPs. Impressive Mikey. :)

    FPTP will destroy NF and the kippers and everyone knows it was always going to do so. Simple as that.



  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Neil said:

    Good luck on Saturday week, Nick!

    Can you tell me please,good luck for what ?

  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    FPT: "Vince Cable has told colleagues that the most effective way for Liberal Democrats to retain seats is to recreate the dynamic of the 1997 election where they joined Labour in an informal onslaught against the Conservatives."

    So the idea is to go into the election vowing to undo five years' hard slog in getting the economy and public finances back towards some semblance of sanity, at great political cost.

    Anyone see a teeny-weeny downside with this strategy?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Tomorrow is my one day not to read the headlines. It's all about BABY, Ugh!
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    RichardNabavi said:

    Anyone see a teeny-weeny downside with this strategy?


    Tactically vote lib dem to keep the tories out? Nah, after the coalition who could argue with that? ;)
  • carl
    carl Posts: 750
    SeanT said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Public opinion will occasionally turn against the monarchy as it did in the 1990s for a while. The question is whether they can always turn things around as they did then.

    the Royal Mail into a pizza delivery service.
    That's current Tory policy isn't it?
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Mick_Pork said:

    RichardNabavi said:

    Anyone see a teeny-weeny downside with this strategy?


    Tactically vote lib dem to keep the tories out? Nah, after the coalition who could argue with that? ;)
    That wasn't what I was thinking, but, yes, you make a good point.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Mick_Pork said:

    MikeK said:

    UKIP will continue to ignore the EDL and the growth of UKIP will continue.

    You've grown from 0 MPs to.. *checks* 0 MPs. Impressive Mikey. :)

    FPTP will destroy NF and the kippers and everyone knows it was always going to do so. Simple as that.

    Temper! Temper! Calm down dear. Take a couple of powders, rejuvenate yourself. Time will tell who's on the winning side, and it aint you my socialist lad.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    @Tykejohnno

    The Labour selection for Broxtowe! The biggest PBC electoral event of 2013!
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ibrahim Taguri @ibrahimtaguri

    Disgusting from Conservative ministers in Government. A go home or face arrest van. http://news.uk.msn.com/illegal-immigrants-urged-to-go-home … pic.twitter.com/aLaRYAkigG


    Illegal immigrants urged to go home

    http://news.uk.msn.com/illegal-immigrants-urged-to-go-home
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    @Tykejohnno

    MSN seems to have stolen today's Daily Mash story.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Neil said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Labour selection for Broxtowe! The biggest PBC electoral event of 2013!

    Well over the years on PB and not a fan of labour, Nick Palmer as grown on me,so good luck sir.

  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited July 2013
    Neil said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Labour selection for Broxtowe! The biggest PBC electoral event of 2013!

    Nick McDonald is a very impressive prospect. Broxtowe Labour would be mad not to select him .

    http://www.nickmcdonald.info/

    They could have a new Blair on their hands.

  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    There's a chance that tonight could break the record for the hottest night in UK history.

    The current record is 23.9 degrees in Brighton on 4th August 1990:

    http://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/UK/highest-temperature-in-uk.php
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    MonikerDiCanio said:



    They could have a new Blair on their hands.

    You think it's *that* important our Nick wins?!
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Neil said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Labour selection for Broxtowe! The biggest PBC electoral event of 2013!

    Nick McDonald is a very impressive prospect. Broxtowe Labour would be mad not to select him .

    http://www.nickmcdonald.info/

    They could have a new Blair on their hands.

    </blockquote

    New blair you say,well I urge Broxtowe labour to vote Nick palmer ;-)

  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Fairly disturbing:
    "'Go ahead and marry me off - I'll kill myself': 11-year-old child bride's defiant YouTube message to family after fleeing home in Yemen":
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2373151/Nada-Al-Ahdal-Escaped-Yemeni-child-bride-11-explains-ran-away-home.html
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    The republican paper goes with -

    Cameron retreats in war on internet porn

    http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/82450g/the_independent_tuesday_23rd_july_2013.html

    Good judgment. If half a dozen rivals are all covering the same story it makes sense to be different. The "i" once promised to have no royal news at all, though they eventually backtracked a bit.

    The Tories are making progress on getting UKIP down to 5% - there's some genuine swingback there since the UKIP vote was partly a classic protest. The Labour vote looks as stable as usual.
    Come on nick,you must be worried ;-)

    Ask me again after Saturday week :-)
    All the best :)
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I would like to hope that all PBers, regardless of their hue or political persuasion, are wishing Nick Palmer good luck in the Broxtowe Labour selection.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Can't believe a poll which barely moved from the margin of error boundaries created such a fuss.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Tykejohnno said:

    Neil said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Labour selection for Broxtowe! The biggest PBC electoral event of 2013!

    Well over the years on PB and not a fan of labour, Nick Palmer as grown on me,so good luck sir.

    Agreed: Nick is always pleasant, and never hectoring. If he were my local MP I would be tempted to offer him my vote.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't believe a poll which barely moved from the margin of error boundaries created such a fuss.

    Have the Tories come in enough on betfair for you to trade out at a profit?

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can't believe a poll which barely moved from the margin of error boundaries created such a fuss.

    Have the Tories come in enough on betfair for you to trade out at a profit?

    Not really, I was expecting a lead to be shown or something. I don't really see how this poll is bad news for Mr Miliband at any rate...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,814
    HYUFD said:

    New England College/NH Journal - NH 2016

    Rand Paul 19% (15%)
    Chris Christie 17.5% (12%)
    Marco Rubio 13% (17%)
    Paul Ryan 9.5% (12%)
    Kelly Ayotte 8.6%
    Rick Santorum 5.5% (4%)
    Bobby Jindal 2.5% (2%)
    Rick Perry 2.1%
    Scott Walker 1.8%
    Unsure 20% (17%)

    New Hampshire is definitely a Rand Paul kind of state.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    Indeed, good luck to NickP!
  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    This feels like the most humid day of the year to me.
    Andy_JS said:

    There's a chance that tonight could break the record for the hottest night in UK history.

    The current record is 23.9 degrees in Brighton on 4th August 1990:

    http://www.currentresults.com/Weather-Extremes/UK/highest-temperature-in-uk.php

  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Good luck Nick, although I wish you could get a safer, Labour seat. Broxtowe is staying blue.

    It is surely now just a matter of time before we get a poll with the tories in the lead. There is so much random noise in these polls it just seems inevitable to me that this will happen in the next couple of months or so. It will of course not mean that the tories actually are in the lead but there must be a good chance of Labour panicking nonetheless.

    It would be great if it arrived for the Conference.

    Finally, congratulations to the Royal couple. It felt distinctly odd to be driving in Orlando, Florida today when the news came on a local channel and there was only 1 item on it. The reach of the UK royal family is incredible and an underrated asset.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Test
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tykejohnno said:

    David Cameron can’t say it, but the PM is set on another coalition

    The electoral facts of life are stacked against the Conservatives, and the Prime Minister and his team know it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10195412/David-Cameron-cant-say-it-but-the-PM-isset-on-another-coalition.html

    Worth reading.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Morning all.

    I awake to discover i'm £1.2k richer. Well, unless Will & Kate go all new age & name the boy 'Alexandra'
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    surbiton said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    David Cameron can’t say it, but the PM is set on another coalition

    The electoral facts of life are stacked against the Conservatives, and the Prime Minister and his team know it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10195412/David-Cameron-cant-say-it-but-the-PM-isset-on-another-coalition.html

    Worth reading.
    What's he going to offer the LibDems in return for an EU referendum? PR referendum?
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    David Cameron can’t say it, but the PM is set on another coalition

    The electoral facts of life are stacked against the Conservatives, and the Prime Minister and his team know it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10195412/David-Cameron-cant-say-it-but-the-PM-isset-on-another-coalition.html

    Worth reading.
    What's he going to offer the LibDems in return for an EU referendum? PR referendum?
    Cameron can't sign up to a coalition without an EU referendum, so the LibDems can select a sweetie of their choice.

    I wonder whether having an EU referendum agreed in the coalition plan would open up the Foreign Secretary role for the LibDems? Tories would still need to have Europe minister though.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    O/T

    Just looking at the tweets from the various leaders in response to the royal news.

    Ed Miliband's stuck out for me:

    Many congratulations to the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge. I wish them and their son all happiness and good health.

    All the others (Cameron, Clegg, Farage, Salmond) mentioned something about the country.

    To me, Miliband's came across as the sort of bland message you might right in a co-worker's leaving card, especially if you weren't close to them. I suppose, though, people might view it as a 'sincere, from the heart, natural' comment.

    Views?
  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Charles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    David Cameron can’t say it, but the PM is set on another coalition

    The electoral facts of life are stacked against the Conservatives, and the Prime Minister and his team know it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10195412/David-Cameron-cant-say-it-but-the-PM-isset-on-another-coalition.html

    Worth reading.
    What's he going to offer the LibDems in return for an EU referendum? PR referendum?
    Cameron can't sign up to a coalition without an EU referendum, so the LibDems can select a sweetie of their choice.

    I wonder whether having an EU referendum agreed in the coalition plan would open up the Foreign Secretary role for the LibDems? Tories would still need to have Europe minister though.
    They'll have a lot of leverage in this one, won't they? Cameron and Miliband will both be facing the ends of their careers unless they can persuade Clegg to work with them.
  • Icarus
    Icarus Posts: 1,015
    I see Nick's opponent (Nick) has wrapped himself in a flag -unfortunately it is the Japanese one!
    http://www.nickmcdonald.info
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edmundintokyo said:

    Charles said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    surbiton said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    David Cameron can’t say it, but the PM is set on another coalition

    The electoral facts of life are stacked against the Conservatives, and the Prime Minister and his team know it

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10195412/David-Cameron-cant-say-it-but-the-PM-isset-on-another-coalition.html

    Worth reading.
    What's he going to offer the LibDems in return for an EU referendum? PR referendum?
    Cameron can't sign up to a coalition without an EU referendum, so the LibDems can select a sweetie of their choice.

    I wonder whether having an EU referendum agreed in the coalition plan would open up the Foreign Secretary role for the LibDems? Tories would still need to have Europe minister though.
    They'll have a lot of leverage in this one, won't they? Cameron and Miliband will both be facing the ends of their careers unless they can persuade Clegg to work with them.
    True, although let's say they are at 40 seats (so significantly down) it may be hard for them to be too greedy.

    In my view, the actual details of the Coalition agreement have turned out to be relatively meaningless. What's much more important (obvious with hindsight, really) is the Quad and the Cabinet representation. Seems tough to push much beyond the 5 they have at the moment, although they can look to upgrade.

    I'm still of the view that CofE is out of reach, so they need Business, but could probably get Foreign or Home secretary instead of the the DPM non-role that Clegg has.

  • edmundintokyo
    edmundintokyo Posts: 17,735
    Icarus said:

    I see Nick's opponent (Nick) has wrapped himself in a flag -unfortunately it is the Japanese one!
    http://www.nickmcdonald.info

    And the pre-war imperial one at that. Looks like the candidate to vote for if you support the minimum wage, value the union link and vow that the Great Empire Of The Sun shall reign over all of Asia for a thousand years.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edited July 2013
    tim said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."

    12% saying they'd join Labour directly is a tremendous result for Ed.
    Across all affiliated unions thats roughly 350,000 people saying they'd become members.

    MODERATED

    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    YouGov

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/vu1qujpx35/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220713.pdf

    Internally the number of 2010 Con saying they would vote UKIP is 15, down from ~19 - which will have played its part in the OA Con 35 VI.

    Some drift in the "leave EU mood" in favour of "in":

    Better/worse off if we left - net "better": -2 (-3)
    Good/bad for jobs - net "good": -4 (-6)

    The "cuts" still belong to "the last Labour government":
    Whose to blame:
    Coalition: 25 (-1)
    Labour: 36 (-1)
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    tim said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."

    12% saying they'd join Labour directly is a tremendous result for Ed.
    Across all affiliated unions thats roughly 350,000 people saying they'd become members.
    And of that 12%, how many do you think actually would?

    100%?

    50%?

    10%?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    "A special Labour conference will be held next March to approve Mr Miliband's proposal that 3m trade unionists will have to "opt in" to funding the party rather than having to "opt out" as at present if they do not wish to do so. The unions will hold half the votes at the London conference, so they could inflict a humiliating defeat on Mr Miliband by persuading a tiny number of constituency parties, who will possess the other half, to oppose the historic shake-up."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ed-miliband-raises-stakes-in-battle-to-dilute-unions-power-inside-labour-with-special-conference-8726908.html
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    tim said:

    "It's 6.30 in the f**ing morning. Enough with the spin already.


    5.00am

    Charles said:

    O/T

    Just looking at the tweets from the various leaders in response to the royal news.

    Ed Miliband's stuck out for me:


    To me, Miliband's came across as the sort of bland message you might right in a co-worker's leaving card, especially if you weren't close to them.

    Views?


    1.5 hours and the hypocrisy is complete
    No hypocrisy. I personally thought that Miliband's message struck the wrong note, but was interested to see how other people reacted to it. You could equally argue that focusing on family vs country is a little less pompous.
  • Stuart_Dickson
    Stuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    - "Are the Tories closing in on Labour in tonight's polling? No way of knowing if your methodology arbitrarily reduces UKIP support..."

    It is a shame that News International did not choose a top notch pollster to commission weekly polls from instead of daily polls from a middling one.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Charles said:

    tim said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."

    12% saying they'd join Labour directly is a tremendous result for Ed.
    Across all affiliated unions thats roughly 350,000 people saying they'd become members.

    MODERATED

    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.
    If you give a coupon for "money off next purchase" (free money) you'll be doing well to get 25% of them used - it can be as low as 10%.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    carl said:

    @JosiasJessop

    (snippety snip)

    If we trust in the scientific process (and beyond the usual caveats you highlighted earlier there's no reason not to, it's been hugely successful and produced the modern world we see around us) then we have to accept the theory is likely to be right.

    As for your second point, that's my view entirely. I think we're too far gone, it's so serious now and progress in stopping it has been too slow for political reasons, so we're better focusing on mitigation. Unfortunately, we probably won't do that either, for political reasons.

    Firstly, an agreement: if we have to spend money, then I am pretty much in favour of spending money to mitigate the effects of climate change, rather than trying to stop CO2 and methane emissions. If the sceptics are right, then much of the money spent on mitigation will still have been usefully spent. And if the believers are right, then we will still be helping people. Mitigation also lends to local solutions, rather than putting the solutions in the hands of the large multinationals.

    But I am rather unsure about your other claims. If you want to see an area where the scientific process is routinely abused, then just look at biomedicine and the drugs companies. What goes on there is often anything but science, yet is dressed up as such. That is remarkably common and dangerous. CERN-style 'real' science is hard to do, and corners get cut.
    "All the theories for "natural variations" explaining the observed trends are undermined by the evidence"
    I'm far from sure that is correct on many levels. But I am not a climate scientist, and as I have been told in the past, my opinion does not count as I am not a climate scientist.

    I will repeat what I said earlier: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. It also requires honesty and openness.

    Anyway, this is probably not the place for this discussion ...
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    CarlottaVance said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."

    12% saying they'd join Labour directly is a tremendous result for Ed.
    Across all affiliated unions thats roughly 350,000 people saying they'd become members.

    MODERATED

    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.
    If you give a coupon for "money off next purchase" (free money) you'll be doing well to get 25% of them used - it can be as low as 10%.
    It's only free money if you were going to buy the product anyway.

    That's why I'm so impressed by the latest Tesco scheme - the Price Match or whatever it's called. Giving you your money back, but in the form of a discount against the next purchase (subject to T&Cs) is a very smart idea. I'd be interested to see the data on how the economics pan out, but I suspect they are very attractive indeed.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    UKIP almost twice as strong as the LibDems among Unite members, and while the Con vote is down, the biggest fall vs 2010 is for the LibDems: (diff vs 2010)

    Con: 23 (-5)
    Lab: 49 (+9)
    LibD: 7 (-13)
    UKIP: 12 (+9)
    Green: 4 (+2)

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Unite-members-poll-full-tables.pdf
  • Robert_Of_Sheffield
    Robert_Of_Sheffield Posts: 207
    tim said:

    "David Cameron’s justification for trying to wrest back powers from Brussels was undermined on Monday after an official Government study concluded that the balance of legal authority between the EU and Westminster is “broadly appropriate”.

    Six reports into the “balance of competencies” between the UK and EU in different areas of life all concluded that nothing fundamental needs to change."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-plans-to-claw-back-eu-powers-thrown-into-disarray-after-official-studies-report-back-8727129.html

    I guess that means Dave will be inventing some dividing lines on fringe issues to buy off gullible Euro sceptics yet again.

    Two points you've neglected to mention:

    Firstly, this report doesn't cover all the EU's activities. It's just the first of 36 reports, each into the EU's impact on different policy areas. Drawing sweeping conclusions is therefore premature.

    Secondly, the article does say "But the reports did find some areas of EU legislation which had a negative effect on Britain. The report on health admitted “a large number of concerns were raised about specific pieces of legislation, including the Working Time Directive”, which restricts the hours that doctors can work."

    Whether the gains from the EU outweigh these admitted costs is a political question. However, even if they do, there's still scope for the UK to try and reduce these negative effects, and a duty for the UK government to do so - or do you really want to argue that the UK shouldn't try to minimise the negative effects of its policies?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Charles said:



    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.

    IME its usually about 60% of those saying they'd do something actually do it - be it attending an invitation event they'd already said they'd show up, signing up for something that isn't too demanding but they think is important. The harder the sign-up process/more expensive it is - the faster the drop off rate as you'd expect.

    If you compare that to a mailshot return rate - which is usually more like 1ish% - its quite a lot better. So if we assume that say 12% of Unite members say they'd join Labour directly - we can guesstimate that it'll be more like 7ish% that do if the price is perceived as VFM.

    That 7% of the total is a very high % of those who voted Labour in 2010 - so I'm sceptical about that bit unless Unite members are peculiarly more committed to Labour per se than say the Tories - perhaps an interesting question would be to ask this instead!
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Charles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."

    12% saying they'd join Labour directly is a tremendous result for Ed.
    Across all affiliated unions thats roughly 350,000 people saying they'd become members.

    MODERATED

    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.
    If you give a coupon for "money off next purchase" (free money) you'll be doing well to get 25% of them used - it can be as low as 10%.
    It's only free money if you were going to buy the product anyway.

    That's why I'm so impressed by the latest Tesco scheme - the Price Match or whatever it's called. Giving you your money back, but in the form of a discount against the next purchase (subject to T&Cs) is a very smart idea. I'd be interested to see the data on how the economics pan out, but I suspect they are very attractive indeed.
    Sainsbury's have been doing it for years!
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Charles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Charles said:

    tim said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Lord Ashcroft's Unite poll:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/07/len-is-right-unite-members-are-not-queuing-up-to-join-labour/#more-2389

    "Just under half (49%) of Unite members said they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow; 23% would vote Tory. Four in ten thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister of the three leaders, putting him just 6 points behind Ed Miliband. Only 42% said the Labour Party was doing a good job of representing the interests of ordinary working people in Britain, while 47% said it was not."

    12% saying they'd join Labour directly is a tremendous result for Ed.
    Across all affiliated unions thats roughly 350,000 people saying they'd become members.

    MODERATED

    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.
    If you give a coupon for "money off next purchase" (free money) you'll be doing well to get 25% of them used - it can be as low as 10%.
    It's only free money if you were going to buy the product anyway.

    That's why I'm so impressed by the latest Tesco scheme - the Price Match or whatever it's called. Giving you your money back, but in the form of a discount against the next purchase (subject to T&Cs) is a very smart idea. I'd be interested to see the data on how the economics pan out, but I suspect they are very attractive indeed.
    Charles, that's been going on for quite some time at Sainsbury and it just always leads me to think the supermarkets are rigging prices amongst themselves. If there's a de facto national price for baked beans, where's the competition ?
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    Charles said:



    Incidentally, there must be some marketing person who knows the stats precisely, but I would assume that if 12% of people reply they they have an intent to purchase membership, substantially less (say half) will actually follow through with it.

    IME its usually about 60% of those saying they'd do something actually do it - be it attending an invitation event they'd already said they'd show up, signing up for something that isn't too demanding but they think is important. The harder the sign-up process/more expensive it is - the faster the drop off rate as you'd expect.

    If you compare that to a mailshot return rate - which is usually more like 1ish% - its quite a lot better. So if we assume that say 12% of Unite members say they'd join Labour directly - we can guesstimate that it'll be more like 7ish% that do if the price is perceived as VFM.

    That 7% of the total is a very high % of those who voted Labour in 2010 - so I'm sceptical about that bit unless Unite members are peculiarly more committed to Labour per se than say the Tories - perhaps an interesting question would be to ask this instead!
    thx
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    What the Ashcroft poll shows is that there are hundreds of thousands of trade unionists out there interested in becoming full members of the Labour party. It will, of course, be up to Labour to get the sell and pricing points right, but that strikes me as being a pretty exciting opportunity to become a mass membership party - in stark contrast to the other parties.

    It also opens up the possibility of a Labour party freed of dependency on union block funding being able to go out into the big wide world to get funding from other sources and to attract people of a centre-left disposition to sign up to a party in which what the members think and say actually counts.

    If Ed can see this through it would be a remarkable achievement and one that will, in the end, change the face of British politics. Full transparency in funding and a membership measured in the hundreds of thousands - what's not to like?
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