politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM marginals poll finds the Tories losing their majority
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM marginals poll finds the Tories losing their majority
ICM phone polled in the 20 most marginal Labour target seats (19 Tory and 1 Lib Dem) on behalf of The Sun on Sunday. This found Labour up 4% since May to 42% and the Tories unchanged on 39%. This represents a Con to Lab swing of 2.1%.
Comments
-
If we trust the polls ...
Edit: and, surprisingly, first.
And more: we also have to factor in any notional Lib Dem recovery. Just a gain of a handful might make a big difference to the mathematics.0 -
Labour should probably gain Hallam next time even if they fall below 200 seats total.0
-
Marginals poll? Seems familiar. We had rather a lot of those before May didn't we?
What were the results again?
0 -
They will be lucky to break into 3 figures at the current rate of progress.Danny565 said:Labour should probably gain Hallam next time even if they fall below 200 seats total.
0 -
Polling at this stage leaves me entirely flaccid. The election is 54 months away.
Given the bizarre events of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if we've been conquered by Martians before then.
0 -
The most accurate poll at the general election was the ComRes aggregrate marginal polling in the South West.MarkHopkins said:
Marginals poll? Seems familiar. We had rather a lot of those before May didn't we?
What were the results again?
Foretold an absolute shellacking for the Lib Dems.
Funny things about that poll Andrew Hawkins had doubts about that poll.0 -
We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.0 -
Poll based on 2020 boundaries? If not....pffftttt.....0
-
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W0 -
Why are the crowd at Spurs singing Bandiera Rosa? Showing support for Corbyn?0
-
I'm not entirely sure we can call Corbyn the LOTO. He's sat atop his party, but I wonder how much power he has in practice.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalisaed railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.0 -
Well labour's peaceniks would not fight back.John_M said:Polling at this stage leaves me entirely flaccid. The election is 54 months away.
Given the bizarre events of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if we've been conquered by Martians before then.0 -
The two-fingers to Corbyn by almost everyone on his own team is quite astonishing.
They've got him on the run and doing whatever they can to make life as difficult/stressful as possible.
He never had the dressing room - but now they're not even trying to hide their lack of respect.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalisaed railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
The most accurate poll at the general election was the ComRes aggregrate marginal polling in the South West.MarkHopkins said:
Marginals poll? Seems familiar. We had rather a lot of those before May didn't we?
What were the results again?
Foretold an absolute shellacking for the Lib Dems.
Funny things about that poll Andrew Hawkins had doubts about that poll.
How do you know which is the most accurate poll before the event though?
Or indeed accurate at all?
0 -
Ugh!0
-
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)0 -
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.0 -
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
One estimate, and it is only an estimated, for the effect of equitation of seat sizes and reduction to 600 seats,MarqueeMark said:Poll based on 2020 boundaries? If not....pffftttt.....
Labour -31
Conservative -4
Other (including SNP ,LD and NI parties) -15
We don't know if this is going to be accurate, but if it is close then the loss of 17 seats as this suggests, then the Conservatives Majority will not be lost!
Still, it is a bit early to be seat counting.
0 -
What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
Is anyone offering a price on a Martian invasion before the next general election, I am still kicking myself for not taking the 200 to 1 on Corbyn.John_M said:Polling at this stage leaves me entirely flaccid. The election is 54 months away.
Given the bizarre events of this year, I wouldn't be surprised if we've been conquered by Martians before then.0 -
o/t biggish deal for any future Indy referendum, Johann Lamont and now (more importantly) Kezia Dugdale saying that SLab members including MSPs should be free to support and campaign for Yes.
Of course what remains of SLab is the Unionist rump, but still.0 -
Is that not part of his problem though?SeanT said:
He could mobilise his army of supporters - the members and 3 quidders - and start threatening a few hardcases with deselection, pour encourager les autres.Plato_Says said:What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.
MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................
My £3 has served its purpose and I've moved on.0 -
I suspect that would cement solidarity between the 90% MPs who didn't vote for him.SeanT said:
He could mobilise his army of supporters - the members and 3 quidders - and start threatening a few hardcases with deselection, pour encourager les autres.Plato_Says said:What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.
MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.0 -
He has few resources in parliament to threaten that part of the front bench which is actively fighting the leftist stance of Corbyn. However if you think that a near communist is going to give up the levers of power so easily, you are mistaken. Like all rabble rousers he can bring out the street against selected MP's and make their lives a misery in and out of parliament.Plato_Says said:What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.
MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................
It will be mighty interesting to see, for us on the right of the political spectrum.0 -
I caught some of the interview with Labour's new shadow minister the challenged Kerry McCarthy. As a vegan she does not eat meat, nor eggs, or drink milk or wear leather ..... Quite how anyone connected with agriculture will regard this is going to be interesting. Kerry McCarthy used to be Labour's idea of a digital guru.....0
-
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.0 -
Dunblane in the Davis Cup finals..0
-
That'd be the equivalent of pointing a sawed-off shotgun at the PLP. Sadly for Corbyn, I reckon the gun would explode and blow his hands off. You cannot lead without followers. Ask John Major.SeanT said:
He could mobilise his army of supporters - the members and 3 quidders - and start threatening a few hardcases with deselection, pour encourager les autres.Plato_Says said:What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.
MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
Judy Murray should get a Damehood.Theuniondivvie said:Dunblane in the Davis Cup finals..
0 -
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?0 -
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.0 -
This made me laugh:
"It’s not good enough – and could even be as good as it gets.”
Martin knows very well that the political cycle will see Labour increasing their vote shares between now and 2017, before swing back gradually occurs up to the general election.
He know this but can't say it because it basically makes his polls pointless and meaningless until about three weeks before the election (and if 2015 is anything to go by they will still be pointless and meaningless even then...)0 -
Fantastic! Great stuffTheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.
0 -
And I've half written a piece speculating "Is AV the only way to save the Union?"GeoffM said:
Fantastic! Great stuffTheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.0 -
Morris Dancer will not be happy.
Merhi to not be classified has been classed by Ladbrokes as lost, despite, er, Merhi not being classified.0 -
Paddy Power have given me a free bet of £10. I'm sticking it on Argentina to beat the All Blacks.
I feel dirty for backing Corbyn's BFFs
Should really stick on Norwich beating Liverpool0 -
If the 2011 AV Referendum had gone the LDs' way, they would have benefited to the tune of ONE seat in 2015...TheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.0 -
So until then, let's drive it like its a rental, baby....TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Only got a little time so the post-race piece won't be up for a few hours, at least (I'll write a little of it soon). However, the bet I made on Merhi not to be classified was settled as lost with Ladbrokes. I've sent an e-mail querying this, given he was not classified. I hope it can be resolved promptly, especially as I put on a larger than usual stake, given the likelihood of it occurring.0 -
That's quite a big difference.RodCrosby said:
If the 2011 AV Referendum had gone the LDs' way, they would have benefited to the tune of ONE seat in 2015...TheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.
In percentage terms....0 -
I feel I've not trolled the Kippers at all in this stint.MarqueeMark said:
So until then, let's drive it like its a rental, baby....TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Shows how much of an irrelevance they've become in this Parliament.
That might be my final thread
0 -
Anyone got the read on BetDaq?
Presumably it's Ladbrokes' entry into exchange betting. But the odds are the same as Betfair (lower amounts)?0 -
No such worries for Charlie Faulkner or Sadiq Khan (if he becomes mayor). However I do think we might see a bottom-up groundswell to get rid of some Blairites.SeanT said:
He could mobilise his army of supporters - the members and 3 quidders - and start threatening a few hardcases with deselection, pour encourager les autres.Plato_Says said:What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.
MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is JCICAWNBPM0 -
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.0 -
TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.
I think you mean EICAWNBPM.. a statement by Jack W methinks and very insightful it was too.0 -
The swings in last night's yougov and Comres though would see the Tories gaining seats from Labour and yougov would see the Tories gaining SNP seats too. Even ICM has Labour well short of the gains needed to be largest party let alone have a majority
0 -
And most wrongest....TheWhiteRabbit said:
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
0 -
Who would they get to replace them? I think people underestimate how hard it is to be an MP and pull it off for any length of time, Corbyns supporters more than most.SeanT said:
He could mobilise his army of supporters - the members and 3 quidders - and start threatening a few hardcases with deselection, pour encourager les autres.Plato_Says said:What can he realistically threatened them with? He took 6 days to get bums on seats as it is - and resorted to the Lords' own arsonist.
MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
Why bother commissioning a poll like this at this time? And why bother discussing it?0
-
Both acronyms.SquareRoot said:TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.
I think you mean EICAWNBPM.. a statement by Jack W methinks and very insightful it was too.
The idea, fine.
The acronym was bloody awful.0 -
As I said to JWisemann on Friday, I don't think any polls are terribly relevant at the moment. There's bound to be a bit of flux, a bit of 'Wha? Sorry?' and a lot of hyperbole about any poll (even allowing for their spectacular performance at the General Election).
The one thing this poll almost certainly does do is put paid to any notions, however fanciful they were, of a snap election. If Corbyn is not evidently and unambiguously toxic enough to deliver a big majority to the government, then it won't be worth the enormous risk, not to say hassle, involved.0 -
What! You are taking the piss out of UKIP? You must pay attention to their conference this week.TheScreamingEagles said:
I feel I've not trolled the Kippers at all in this stint.MarqueeMark said:
So until then, let's drive it like its a rental, baby....TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Shows how much of an irrelevance they've become in this Parliament.
That might be my final thread0 -
I can see no benefit to a snap election, nor any election until the new boundaries are in place.ydoethur said:As I said to JWisemann on Friday, I don't think any polls are terribly relevant at the moment. There's bound to be a bit of flux, a bit of 'Wha? Sorry?' and a lot of hyperbole about any poll (even allowing for their spectacular performance at the General Election).
The one thing this poll almost certainly does do is put paid to any notions, however fanciful they were, of a snap election. If Corbyn is not evidently and unambiguously toxic enough to deliver a big majority to the government, then it won't be worth the enormous risk, not to say hassle, involved.
And as I alluded to earlier, polling of marginals on the existing boundaries is not worth a shiny shit.0 -
What happens if that involves his chief whip resigning?MikeK said:
Well Corbyn has to do something or end up by October 1st as a wet dish rag, of no worth whatsoever.SeanT said:Just been watching some of the Falconer remarks on DP. After reading some of Sadiq Khan's harsher opinions of Corbyn.
This open division at the top of Labour on so many key issues - from nationalisation to Defence - is simply unsustainable. Either Corbyn gives way on ALL his key principles, leaving with him a toy nationalised railway as his only consolation, or Corbyn finally wields the whip and tells his ministers to put up or shut up. And they unseat him.
The great Labour civil war has only just begun.
My guess that he will be forced to use the whip sooner than he would like. A "Night of the Long Knives" approaches. Hopefully with no actual bodies, but you never know.................0 -
JICIPM!0
-
US Secretary of State John Kerry urgently seeking foreign policy advice from renowned international relations expert Victoria Beckham
https://twitter.com/victoriabeckham/status/6451904365717708810 -
Dan Evans is from Dunblane?Theuniondivvie said:Dunblane in the Davis Cup finals..
0 -
JWiseman talks crap, it could almost be IOS in a different guise, the mantra is very similar.MarqueeMark said:
I can see no benefit to a snap election, nor any election until the new boundaries are in place.ydoethur said:As I said to JWisemann on Friday, I don't think any polls are terribly relevant at the moment. There's bound to be a bit of flux, a bit of 'Wha? Sorry?' and a lot of hyperbole about any poll (even allowing for their spectacular performance at the General Election).
The one thing this poll almost certainly does do is put paid to any notions, however fanciful they were, of a snap election. If Corbyn is not evidently and unambiguously toxic enough to deliver a big majority to the government, then it won't be worth the enormous risk, not to say hassle, involved.
And as I alluded to earlier, polling of marginals on the existing boundaries is not worth a shiny shit.0 -
She is extremely smart. She made a fortune out of the Spice Girls despite not being able to sing, she made a very good but probably not world class footballer into one of the richest sportsmen in history and she was recently businesswoman of the year.HYUFD said:US Secretary of State John Kerry urgently seeking foreign policy advice from renowned international relations expert Victoria Beckham
https://twitter.com/victoriabeckham/status/645190436571770881
Still shouldn't grab her breasts though.0 -
Succinct colorful and to the point.MarqueeMark said:
I can see no benefit to a snap election, nor any election until the new boundaries are in place.ydoethur said:As I said to JWisemann on Friday, I don't think any polls are terribly relevant at the moment. There's bound to be a bit of flux, a bit of 'Wha? Sorry?' and a lot of hyperbole about any poll (even allowing for their spectacular performance at the General Election).
The one thing this poll almost certainly does do is put paid to any notions, however fanciful they were, of a snap election. If Corbyn is not evidently and unambiguously toxic enough to deliver a big majority to the government, then it won't be worth the enormous risk, not to say hassle, involved.
And as I alluded to earlier, polling of marginals on the existing boundaries is not worth a shiny shit.0 -
It's fairly obvious, even from on here, that some people are already starting to try to talk up Corbyn's possibilities. The left wing press will no doubt try to do the same, just as they did with Miliband. The right wing press will do the same - to push fear.runnymede said:Why bother commissioning a poll like this at this time? And why bother discussing it?
Meanwhile buried in the unweighted Yougov, we see Labour on an implied sub 30%, with a third of 2015 Labour voters saying they don't know if they will vote Labour or stating that they have already gone.
0 -
Indeed, though the voteshares in comres and yougov today if applied nationally on UNS would see the Tories gain between 5-19 seats from LabourMarqueeMark said:
I can see no benefit to a snap election, nor any election until the new boundaries are in place.ydoethur said:As I said to JWisemann on Friday, I don't think any polls are terribly relevant at the moment. There's bound to be a bit of flux, a bit of 'Wha? Sorry?' and a lot of hyperbole about any poll (even allowing for their spectacular performance at the General Election).
The one thing this poll almost certainly does do is put paid to any notions, however fanciful they were, of a snap election. If Corbyn is not evidently and unambiguously toxic enough to deliver a big majority to the government, then it won't be worth the enormous risk, not to say hassle, involved.
And as I alluded to earlier, polling of marginals on the existing boundaries is not worth a shiny shit.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/0 -
Look, Squirrel!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.0 -
EICIPM is a titan in comparison.JosiasJessop said:
Look, Squirrel!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.0 -
At least the pair of them know how to dress though.DavidL said:
She is extremely smart. She made a fortune out of the Spice Girls despite not being able to sing, she made a very good but probably not world class footballer into one of the richest sportsmen in history and she was recently businesswoman of the year.HYUFD said:US Secretary of State John Kerry urgently seeking foreign policy advice from renowned international relations expert Victoria Beckham
https://twitter.com/victoriabeckham/status/645190436571770881
Still shouldn't grab her breasts though.0 -
Mr. Jessop, don't point and shout at squirrels. You never know when Monbiot might be lurking.
Still no word back from Ladbrokes. I'll see a bit later today if there's an update. If possible, post-race piece (perhaps with that question still hanging) will be up this evening. May be up tomorrow.0 -
Somewhat off-topic, for which I hope our distinguished guest editor will forgive me as he winds down towards the end of his remarkable few weeks in charge.
One thing to keep an eye on - and one that could be potentially disastrous for the government - is education. Yes, we had the announcement this morning on free school meals, but there is a potentially far more serious problem brewing with exams.
To cut a long story short, because the old GCSE and A-level were all 'too easy', new exams are being phased in over the next three to four years. My subject (History) is in the forefront of these. And so far, the changes have been disastrous - badly thought through, and even more badly implemented.
First, the content. I'll stick to History and RE because those are the subjects I know best, but it could apply to several of them including science. Good point - in terms of what we do, the new History (and RE, to a lesser extent) course is about one million times better than the dreadful SHP and MWH syllabi it is replacing, which were basically tired Marxist cliché from the early 1970s (USSR good, USA and Catholic Church bad) wrapped up in pseudo-historical drivel. We now have to cover the medieval and early modern period, and the study of ancient buildings and archaeology. That's wonderful, and I am really pleased about it. BUT bad point - the amount of stuff we have to cover is increasing by roughly 50%. Guess how much extra time I'm getting to teach this. If anyone guessed zero, they guessed correctly. A-level is, if anything, rather worse in terms of heaviness of content, without the concomitant offer of a broader and more interesting range.
Second, the complexity. The new GCSE will essentially be a revival of the old O-level. The Maths paper, for example, now has two levels - foundation and higher. Foundation is essentially the old intermediate paper. In History, you will practically need a degree just to navigate the exam papers (because unfortunately, with so many topics to cover they are long and fiendishly complex). There will also be an increase in the raw number of exams, due to increased content.
(continued)0 -
(continued)
This, to my mind, leaves two problems. One, it will militate against children getting a pass grade (5-9 in new jargon, 5 being a C) in schools that are not always performing at very high levels. This will particularly impact on children from lower-income families who have much less choice over where they can go to school than their counterparts from families with middle-class parents who can afford houses near good schools even if they then have long commutes to work (or, in extremis, private education). I would not mind that if I was not also concerned that there has been no commitment to offering advanced vocational routes as well as an alternative to academic success and HE - or for that matter, a gentle acceptance that not every school, can deliver above-average teaching and not every student can achieve above-average grades (the DFE's civil servants would certainly fail maths)! But the fact is, at the moment anything below C (5) is regarded as a failure and these exams could potentially be too steep for some children and some schools to cope with. Second, the massive increase in exams strikes me as a very reckless gamble with the mental and physical health of the children. At the present time, around 20-25 exams appears to be the norm. Under the new dispensation, that could easily top 40, in under a month - that's two a day, or more (a month has c.20 teaching days). And the old solution in a clashing exam, of teachers having children to stay for the night so they can be held incommunicado, for obvious reasons is not really an option now.
Therefore, we will in 3 years or so have a lot of gloomy comment on poor exam results, declining social mobility and the difficulty young school leavers face in finding any sort of job. That will, or at least should, deal a hammer blow to the government's centrist credentials and potentially undermine George Osborne and Michael Gove as the ministers who will undoubtedly be held responsible.
So education ought to be an absolute gift to any competent opposition. It ought doubly to be a gift to Labour because we must be by far the most unionised of professions (I know of no teacher who is not in some union - certainly I am, although not a TUC affiliated one). Fertile ground. This brings me to the main point. I think Lucy Powell's appointment as Shadow Ed Sec could be Corbyn's worst mistake. She is rude, arrogant, not very intelligent and was clearly put in as a token Brownite woman. The person who gave us 'In the real world, OK, where I live, unlike where you live Andrew' and the Edstone is not the woman to either exploit this for political gain OR provide a measure of opposition to mitigate the looming disaster.
For myself, I'm just stressed and miserable at the chaos, which is my job to deal with as a Head of Department. And I'm not at all surprised that since I started teaching just three years ago the numbers quitting the profession within five years have risen from 40% to 50%.0 -
Oh undoubtedly and given his 2004 result she could probably teach John Kerry a thing or two about image and PRDavidL said:
She is extremely smart. She made a fortune out of the Spice Girls despite not being able to sing, she made a very good but probably not world class footballer into one of the richest sportsmen in history and she was recently businesswoman of the year.HYUFD said:US Secretary of State John Kerry urgently seeking foreign policy advice from renowned international relations expert Victoria Beckham
https://twitter.com/victoriabeckham/status/645190436571770881
Still shouldn't grab her breasts though.0 -
The more I think about it, the more irrelevant I think polling is at this stage. Most people are turned off as they know there is no election for over 50 months. The main block currently thinking about politics is the Labour Selectorate.
Also, this is the first set of polls since Corbyn was elected, so they are not calibrated against anything meaningful.
Over time, we shall have more polls which will allow us to see if there is any trend. But I think whatever, the outlook is bleak for Corbyn. He has, as I see it, two scenarios:
1. maintain his original beliefs. This will lose him a good chunk of previous Labour voters and essentially preclude him from picking up votes in the centre. Labour will be reliant on gaining first time voters and stealing from the Greens. I can see no scenario where this leads to him beating Ed's performance at the next GE
2. compromise on his beliefs in the interests of leading his party. This will lose him most of those votes he stands to gain in scenario 1, and most of the enthusiasm behind his election to the post. It is unlikely to win back all, or even the majority, of those he will lose in scenario 1, as few will believe that his actual beliefs have changed, and so there must still be some lingering suspicion that, if voted into office, his natural political proclivities will reassert themselves. Again, I don't see how this results in him bettering Ed's showing at a GE.0 -
Er, JICIPM now!RobD said:
EICIPM is a titan in comparison.JosiasJessop said:
Look, Squirrel!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.0 -
Lamont was interesting on GMS this morning.Theuniondivvie said:o/t biggish deal for any future Indy referendum, Johann Lamont and now (more importantly) Kezia Dugdale saying that SLab members including MSPs should be free to support and campaign for Yes.
Of course what remains of SLab is the Unionist rump, but still.0 -
New CNN and NBC GOP national 2016 polls
CNN
Trump 24
Fiorina 15
Carson 15
Rubio 11
Bush 9
Cruz 6
Huckabee 6
Paul 4
Christie 3
Kasich 2
Santorum 1
Walker, others 0
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/20/politics/carly-fiorina-donald-trump-republican-2016-poll/index.html
NBC
Trump 29%
Carson 14%
Fiorina 11%
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/nbc-online-survey-fiorina-won-debate-trump-still-leads-n4303160 -
The polling is useful in identifying that Corbyn has certainly not got any significant bounce from being elected leader with a fractional swing to the Tories or Labour since the election depending on which poll you look at. In Scotland he does seem to be doing a little better than Ed Miliband though on today's yougovMTimT said:The more I think about it, the more irrelevant I think polling is at this stage. Most people are turned off as they know there is no election for over 50 months. The main block currently thinking about politics is the Labour Selectorate.
Also, this is the first set of polls since Corbyn was elected, so they are not calibrated against anything meaningful.
Over time, we shall have more polls which will allow us to see if there is any trend. But I think whatever, the outlook is bleak for Corbyn. He has, as I see it, two scenarios:
1. maintain his original beliefs. This will lose him a good chunk of previous Labour voters and essentially preclude him from picking up votes in the centre. Labour will be reliant on gaining first time voters and stealing from the Greens. I can see no scenario where this leads to him beating Ed's performance at the next GE
2. compromise on his beliefs in the interests of leading his party. This will lose him most of those votes he stands to gain in scenario 1, and most of the enthusiasm behind his election to the post. It is unlikely to win back all, or even the majority, of those he will lose in scenario 1, as few will believe that his actual beliefs have changed, and so there must still be some lingering suspicion that, if voted into office, his natural political proclivities will reassert themselves. Again, I don't see how this results in him bettering Ed's showing at a GE.0 -
Yep, I must admit my opinion of her has risen a bit recently.malcolmg said:
Lamont was interesting on GMS this morning.Theuniondivvie said:o/t biggish deal for any future Indy referendum, Johann Lamont and now (more importantly) Kezia Dugdale saying that SLab members including MSPs should be free to support and campaign for Yes.
Of course what remains of SLab is the Unionist rump, but still.0 -
You still peddling that merde, subsample was <100HYUFD said:
The polling is useful in identifying that Corbyn has certainly not got any significant bounce from being elected leader with a fractional swing to the Tories or Labour since the election depending on which poll you look at. In Scotland he does seem to be doing a little better than Ed Miliband though on today's yougovMTimT said:The more I think about it, the more irrelevant I think polling is at this stage. Most people are turned off as they know there is no election for over 50 months. The main block currently thinking about politics is the Labour Selectorate.
Also, this is the first set of polls since Corbyn was elected, so they are not calibrated against anything meaningful.
Over time, we shall have more polls which will allow us to see if there is any trend. But I think whatever, the outlook is bleak for Corbyn. He has, as I see it, two scenarios:
1. maintain his original beliefs. This will lose him a good chunk of previous Labour voters and essentially preclude him from picking up votes in the centre. Labour will be reliant on gaining first time voters and stealing from the Greens. I can see no scenario where this leads to him beating Ed's performance at the next GE
2. compromise on his beliefs in the interests of leading his party. This will lose him most of those votes he stands to gain in scenario 1, and most of the enthusiasm behind his election to the post. It is unlikely to win back all, or even the majority, of those he will lose in scenario 1, as few will believe that his actual beliefs have changed, and so there must still be some lingering suspicion that, if voted into office, his natural political proclivities will reassert themselves. Again, I don't see how this results in him bettering Ed's showing at a GE.0 -
very low turnout in Greece, exit polls in 40m...0
-
Interesting observation, if it's correct. But is it the point?RodCrosby said:
If the 2011 AV Referendum had gone the LDs' way, they would have benefited to the tune of ONE seat in 2015...TheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.0 -
Has a date been set for Zac Goldsmith to be named as candidate?0
-
All the polling before the leadership election too showed Corbyn polled best in Scotland and London so the fact Labour has its largest lead in London in today's yougov and had an improved rating in Scotland is not that surprisingmalcolmg said:
You still peddling that merde, subsample was <100</p>HYUFD said:
The polling is useful in identifying that Corbyn has certainly not got any significant bounce from being elected leader with a fractional swing to the Tories or Labour since the election depending on which poll you look at. In Scotland he does seem to be doing a little better than Ed Miliband though on today's yougovMTimT said:The more I think about it, the more irrelevant I think polling is at this stage. Most people are turned off as they know there is no election for over 50 months. The main block currently thinking about politics is the Labour Selectorate.
Also, this is the first set of polls since Corbyn was elected, so they are not calibrated against anything meaningful.
Over time, we shall have more polls which will allow us to see if there is any trend. But I think whatever, the outlook is bleak for Corbyn. He has, as I see it, two scenarios:
1. maintain his original beliefs. This will lose him a good chunk of previous Labour voters and essentially preclude him from picking up votes in the centre. Labour will be reliant on gaining first time voters and stealing from the Greens. I can see no scenario where this leads to him beating Ed's performance at the next GE
2. compromise on his beliefs in the interests of leading his party. This will lose him most of those votes he stands to gain in scenario 1, and most of the enthusiasm behind his election to the post. It is unlikely to win back all, or even the majority, of those he will lose in scenario 1, as few will believe that his actual beliefs have changed, and so there must still be some lingering suspicion that, if voted into office, his natural political proclivities will reassert themselves. Again, I don't see how this results in him bettering Ed's showing at a GE.0 -
ND are at 6.2 to win.MTimT said:
They are suggesting sub 50%. If the youth turn out in the last hour, that will be good for Syriza, presumably. If not, I think New Democracy will win largest party by a bigger margin than predicted.RodCrosby said:very low turnout in Greece, exit polls in 40m...
Sounds like you think that's value
0 -
Yes it's exactly the point. Of course the LDs wanted to change the voting system to one which suited them more. Not for any other reason.logical_song said:
Interesting observation, if it's correct. But is it the point?RodCrosby said:
If the 2011 AV Referendum had gone the LDs' way, they would have benefited to the tune of ONE seat in 2015...TheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.
There are only two reasons driving the never-ending call for electoral "reform". Selfish self interest of those calling for it and (more importantly) to keep TSE in thread material.0 -
Final thread ever???TheScreamingEagles said:
I feel I've not trolled the Kippers at all in this stint.MarqueeMark said:
So until then, let's drive it like its a rental, baby....TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Shows how much of an irrelevance they've become in this Parliament.
That might be my final thread
Fill, your, boots!0 -
Not really. There's more chance of EICIPM happening!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Er, JICIPM now!RobD said:
EICIPM is a titan in comparison.JosiasJessop said:
Look, Squirrel!TheWhiteRabbit said:
Let's not start that shall we?SquareRoot said:DONT BELIEVE ANY POLLS. THEY ARE TRANSITORY AND BEAR NO RELATION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW OR THE FUTURE.
The next fix they do to correct the last cockup will induce some other error that will need fixing and so on and so forth.
All you need to know is CICAWNBPM
EICIPM must have been one of pb's worst creations.0 -
Not an expert on Greek politics, so all caveats applying, but yes.TheWhiteRabbit said:
ND are at 6.2 to win.MTimT said:
They are suggesting sub 50%. If the youth turn out in the last hour, that will be good for Syriza, presumably. If not, I think New Democracy will win largest party by a bigger margin than predicted.RodCrosby said:very low turnout in Greece, exit polls in 40m...
Sounds like you think that's value0 -
Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.0 -
All the polls show, certainly comres and yougov, is that Corbyn has boosted Labour a fraction, mainly in Scotland and London, but the Tories have been boosted even more, so the net result is little changeRoger said:Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.0 -
No. Because you can't know how people would vote differently under a different voting system.logical_song said:
Interesting observation, if it's correct. But is it the point?RodCrosby said:
If the 2011 AV Referendum had gone the LDs' way, they would have benefited to the tune of ONE seat in 2015...TheScreamingEagles said:
There was an original piece written prior to the election that wasn't published (lucky for me) that said AV was the only way the Tories could win a majority in 2015 and Dave would regret campaigning against AV.GeoffM said:
Hmmmm. Did it even exist?TheScreamingEagles said:
Alas no. Ran out of time.foxinsoxuk said:
It had better be the AV thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
No need to relurk!Andy_Cooke said:
Sorry, nope. Just went straight here on vanillaforums.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did you not read my final paragraph?Andy_Cooke said:We can't really say without seeing the results in the closest Labour marginals.
After all, in 2015, the Tories lost something like 11 marginals to Labour. But gained something like 10.
It was 10 Lab gains from the Tories in E&W and 8 Lab losses to the Tories in E&W
(Shuts up and relurks)
I'm demob happy. One more thread to go and I hand back the keys to Mike.
Will be published eventually.
Or like the monster under the bed, was it invented to scare small PB children into behaving themselves?
That's been substantially been re-written.
I did do an AV thread a few months ago. AV might stop Andy Burnham from winning the Labour leadership.0 -
But surely the problem is that neither were really 'electable', i.e. men (both men) who were seen as possible PMs?Roger said:Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.
I think there is a case to be made that you are either electable or not. These two are not. It's only when people are vaguely plausible as PMs that the relative question of more or less electable comes into play. Yvette Cooper might have been electable, although not as electable as Cameron. I still think though that she might have a chance against Osborne in the unlikely event he ever becomes Tory leader and she comes out of retirement.0 -
IDS on average polled slightly better than Hague, he shored up the right better, as did Howard, but both lost the centre. I would expect a similar story with Corbyn, he will shore up the left better than Ed Miliband and poll slightly better than the 30% Ed won in the general election. Corbyn is also helped by the fact the LDs are so weak and there is no SDP like Foot had to deal with. However Cameron, like Blair, will still win the centre and the electionydoethur said:
But surely the problem is that neither were really 'electable', i.e. men (both men) who were seen as possible PMs?Roger said:Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.
I think there is a case to be made that you are either electable or not. These two are not. It's only when people are vaguely plausible as PMs that the relative question of more or less electable comes into play. Yvette Cooper might have been electable, although not as electable as Cameron. I still think though that she might have a chance against Osborne in the unlikely event he ever becomes Tory leader and she comes out of retirement.0 -
Why would the youth come out and vote for Syriza? They've been bitten by all the main Greek parties and now bitten and betrayed just as badly by their own champions, Syriza. I can only see more woes for that misgoverned country.MTimT said:
They are suggesting sub 50%. If the youth turn out in the last hour, that will be good for Syriza, presumably. If not, I think New Democracy will win largest party by a bigger margin than predicted.RodCrosby said:very low turnout in Greece, exit polls in 40m...
0 -
It means nothing though. Organisation in Scotland is dire , lots of infighting , they are going nowhere as a sub regional office. Same fate as the Tories and LibDems.HYUFD said:
All the polling before the leadership election too showed Corbyn polled best in Scotland and London so the fact Labour has its largest lead in London in today's yougov and had an improved rating in Scotland is not that surprisingmalcolmg said:
You still peddling that merde, subsample was <100</p>HYUFD said:
The polling is useful in identifying that Corbyn has certainly not got any significant bounce from being elected leader with a fractional swing to the Tories or Labour since the election depending on which poll you look at. In Scotland he does seem to be doing a little better than Ed Miliband though on today's yougovMTimT said:The more I think about it, the more irrelevant I think polling is at this stage. Most people are turned off as they know there is no election for over 50 months. The main block currently thinking about politics is the Labour Selectorate.
Also, this is the first set of polls since Corbyn was elected, so they are not calibrated against anything meaningful.
Over time, we shall have more polls which will allow us to see if there is any trend. But I think whatever, the outlook is bleak for Corbyn. He has, as I see it, two scenarios:
1. maintain his original beliefs. This will lose him a good chunk of previous Labour voters and essentially preclude him from picking up votes in the centre. Labour will be reliant on gaining first time voters and stealing from the Greens. I can see no scenario where this leads to him beating Ed's performance at the next GE
2. compromise on his beliefs in the interests of leading his party. This will lose him most of those votes he stands to gain in scenario 1, and most of the enthusiasm behind his election to the post. It is unlikely to win back all, or even the majority, of those he will lose in scenario 1, as few will believe that his actual beliefs have changed, and so there must still be some lingering suspicion that, if voted into office, his natural political proclivities will reassert themselves. Again, I don't see how this results in him bettering Ed's showing at a GE.0 -
Based on the poll? published earlier, any party would need about 38.6% for a majority.TheWhiteRabbit said:
ND are at 6.2 to win.MTimT said:
They are suggesting sub 50%. If the youth turn out in the last hour, that will be good for Syriza, presumably. If not, I think New Democracy will win largest party by a bigger margin than predicted.RodCrosby said:very low turnout in Greece, exit polls in 40m...
Sounds like you think that's value0 -
'In theory, voting is compulsory in Greece, but the rule is not enforced.' (Guardian coverage) A bit like tax collecting.TheWhiteRabbit said:
ND are at 6.2 to win.MTimT said:
They are suggesting sub 50%. If the youth turn out in the last hour, that will be good for Syriza, presumably. If not, I think New Democracy will win largest party by a bigger margin than predicted.RodCrosby said:very low turnout in Greece, exit polls in 40m...
Sounds like you think that's value
0 -
David Cameron will have retired by 2020.HYUFD said:
IDS on average polled slightly better than Hague, he shored up the right better, as did Howard, but both lost the centre. I would expect a similar story with Corbyn, he will shore up the left better than Ed Miliband and poll slightly better than the 30% Ed won in the general election. Corbyn is also helped by the fact the LDs are so weak and there is no SDP like Foot had to deal with. However Cameron, like Blair, will still win the centre and the electionydoethur said:
But surely the problem is that neither were really 'electable', i.e. men (both men) who were seen as possible PMs?Roger said:Can anyone hand on heart-who doesn't wish Labour ill-believe they would have been more electable with Ed than with Jeremy?
This poll doesn't surprise me at all. The old order has the putrid smell of decay and that's not just the Tories. Corbyn's starting to look like a breath of fresh air.
I think there is a case to be made that you are either electable or not. These two are not. It's only when people are vaguely plausible as PMs that the relative question of more or less electable comes into play. Yvette Cooper might have been electable, although not as electable as Cameron. I still think though that she might have a chance against Osborne in the unlikely event he ever becomes Tory leader and she comes out of retirement.0
