politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even Michael Foot had net positive opening MORI ratings. Ho
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Even Michael Foot had net positive opening MORI ratings. How will Corbyn do?
Ipsos MORI, and in its earlier incarnation just MORI, has been surveying leader ratings since the mid-1970 and one question whether the sample are “satisfied or dissatisfied” has been asked in the same manner for nearly four decades.
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http://ind.pn/1PbXn67
Those supplementaries look fun.
Normal service is restored.
http://comres.co.uk/polls/august-2015-daily-mail-political-poll/
If Jeremy Corbyn is in that band, he has a standard start. Personally, I'm expecting him to be a second outlier on the low side.
'The economy is growing, after the recession Labour left'
The economy was growing when Labour left office - it now appears to be slowing. How will it look in 2018?
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/historical-polls/voting-intention-2001-2005
That's why the BBC will have to change model - as everyone else has done already.
Combined with their labyrinthine selection procedure, the 4-5 available for Corbyn to still be leader on Jan 1st 2017 looks a great bet to me:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/jeremy-corbyn-specials
Hahahah - LD conference tweet - there's cool retro and there's dad dancing, now which best fits Farron and Liberal Democracy?
On reflection however, perhaps this has more to do with the attractions of Farron, compared with those of Corbyn.
Remember under the Hague/IDS years only really the Telegraph and Mail were hostile to Blair and kept the Tory flag flying, the situation is reversed now with very few but solid Labour papers hostile to Cameron
It's more likely we will see defections to the Conservatives and I'm not particularly expecting that either.
The Tories just need to sit back and pass the popcorn.
I didn't have the heart to point out that he appointed someone he had never met to be Shadow Education Secretary (and then only after she had turned down the first job because she wanted to do something with child care) - and the new Shadow Health Secretary is someone who was a complete unknown (even to most of her constituents)
If those jobs are so important and so central to his vision, why not appoint women with a track record on delivering in the House and in the media?
The depths to which the Corbyn apologists are having to plumb in order to justify their man's actions is quite frankly ludicrous. And we are only in week 1.
You are being melodramatic.
Not sure that a +ve net rating shows anything of relevance quite honestly. Five of the six shown above failed to win a general election and the only one that did is shown joint third. – However, if Jeremy Corbyn’s rating is close to Michael Foot’s, Labour MPs will groan with despair and the media will have a field day with it.
Even Labour supporters weren't too keen then, though - I remember one saying morosely that she'd vote for us because one still supported one's football team even when they were being relegated. Foot was respected as a patriot and a good speaker but wasn't even that popular on the left - they felt he made too many compromises and was basically part of the establishment, even though a progressive part. I've not experienced quite the current level of enthusiasm among Corbyn fans in my life, though from a distance the SNP phenomenon looked similar.
This is all such an Alice in Wonderland time that it's getting hard to answer some of these questions.
The campaign of vilification against UKIP and Nigel Farage was just the same. As was (though less vicious) the campaign against Scottish independence.
So has been the case for 'Putin' and whichever 'regime' (they become a regime when we dislike them) we don't like at any point.
Most recently, we've seen this appalling propaganda machine turned to serve the purpose of overrunning Europe with migrants. Why?
The propaganda always operates the same way:
-Show the 'truth' of one side, but leave to one side facts and developments that don't suit the agenda
-Scream accusations and demand action before the facts have been established, and drop the story like a hot brick when it develops and nuances become apparent.
-Treat said accusations as accepted fact from that point on and refer to them as such later
Some of the recent media causes I personally approve of, some I do not, but I recognise that I can't disapprove of it when it's against me, but have a sly chuckle and enjoy it when it's turned against someone else. It would be nice if others did the same.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/103/Voting-Intention-in-Great-Britain-1976present.aspx?view=wide
College Game Day today is in Tuscaloosa, on the campus at Alabama, in front of Bryant Denny Stadium.
There are two big SEC games today - South Carolina at Georgia (Georgia favored by 16) followed by the big one - Ole Miss at Alabama (Bama by 6).
One of the big things about the College Game Day show is the signs made and held up by the crowd. They tend to the witty and the whimsical. "Ole Miss girls are easier than their out of conference schedule" or "Hugh Freeze uses Ashley Madison" or :Hugh Freeze takes bubble baths" or "Make sure you're on the potty when you go Hotty toddy" or "Ole Miss can't swim with the Tide" is an example.
Political signs are very rare, which means that the large sign in the foreground this morning saying "Hillary Clinton > Ole Miss" is unusual, and not a good sign for her, in any sense.
But this evening -
Go Dawgs!!!
Roll Tide!!!
Their 232 is worth 212 on a strict ratio but given that the problem of excessively small seats for Labour held inner cities are also being addressed their starting point is probably nearer 205. How many extra do we think Corbyn can lose?
On the current boundaries we were told that there were about 50 Labour seats with majorities of less than 4,400. Some of these will disappear but we also had some interesting stats a while ago about the number of Labour seats which did not touch any other Labour held seat. There was something like 50 of them as well and many of these are going to gain non Labour held areas and become even more marginal.
My guess is that UKIP will do less well in terms of votes at the next election although much of that will clearly depend on how the referendum goes. My guess would also be that the Tories will be the major beneficiary of that. Unless the new Tory leader is a lot further right than looks likely at the moment I don't see a lot of room for a significant Lib Dem recovery although they may also seek to recover seats lost to Labour. At the moment that looks where they should be concentrating their efforts.
The economy remains uncertain and a recession, even a mild one, might change the calculus but at the moment I would be drawing the line somewhere around 170-175. Long way to go of course but it seems to me there is as good a chance of things getting worse for Labour as better.
Conservatives lost net seats at GEs for 3 consecutive GEs 87,92 and 97.
Was it pre WW2 when either of these parties had an equal or worse record than 4 GEs in a row?
Of course Labour look like adding a 5th GE to their record.
Conservatives have never had a longer losing run than the one under Thathcer/Major.
ISIS is bad because it beheads people. What does the current Saudi Royal family do ? The Saudis have beheaded hundreds / thousands more people than ISIS has done.
What did Israel do in Gaza ?
The more time goes by ISIS is becoming an entity in that part of the Middle East. The West by foolishly equating Assad to ISIS has sown the seeds of this stalemate.
The Dense Connection?
Close Encounters of the Nerd Kind?
The Untouchable?
Austin Powers Leadmember?
Austin Powers Oldmember?
If he wins, maybe The Great Escape?
As for Corbyn's views on the death of Bin Laden, I believe much of what America has done in its leadership of the world will only unfold and dawn upon the wider public over the coming years and decades. A bit of pantomime over killing Bin Laden is a comparatively mild accusation.
Or perhaps The Day The Earth Stood Still
or White Mischief
The Fugitive
Public Enemies
http://www.news.com.au/world/middle-east/prisoner-ali-mohammed-al-nimr-facing-death-by-crucifixion-in-saudi-arabia/story-fnh81ifq-1227533534610
34% of the people on the electoral register did not vote. If you take those not on the register the percentage comes close to 40% if not higher.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ma_malakat_aymanukum
Back to the Future.
Or
The Bland that Time Forgot.
You mean after the man that clamed he had abolished 'boom and bust' delivered the closest thing to a depression since the 1930s! That the UK was particularly venerable because the amount of debt that he had built up even in the good years! He had managed to create the impression that things where not getting much worse by throwing more borrowed money at things like the car scrapage scheme!!!
'it now appears to be slowing'??????
40,000 new jobs where crated in the last quarter, that is very healthy, not as much as in the last few years, but that is because as the pool of unemployed people empties, there are less scope to crate more jobs. instead the principle indicator is now pay, which is growing at 2.9% again very healthily.
After the damage inflicted by Mr Browns, 'no boom and bust' neo-depression, pay and living standards are now returning to where they should be.
'How will that look in 2018'
We will have to see, but I expect that by that time the 'Utopia of Venezwala' that the left idealises, will have imploded which is not going to reflect where on its proponents in this contrary.
The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
ISIS is a Saudi-sponsored entity. If you want to see what the Saudis do when they REALLY want to crush an armed entity, see what they've done to the Houthi uprising in Yemen.
I am in the Labour Party since 1979 [ barring 2003 - 2007 ] and am on the left of the party and I do not know anyone.
'Everyone is exposed to at least some TV and radio. All of these outlets have been uniformly and relentlessly hostile to Corbyn, yet he represents the second largest party in the country. That is the behaviour of a banana republic.'
Have you made a formal complaint to the BBC yet?
The Guy Who Got Kicked in the Hornet's Nest
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth
"Sorry, before we go out for a drink I'd just like you to answer me a few questions. Firstly, are you a peace-loving Corbynite superior being, a baby-eating evil Tory, or some other form of lowlife slug?"
Some of the best political conversations I've had in my life were with lefty friends who, using both knowledge and passion, challenged my positions.
I would also like to state that I love Americans - every one I've met to a person has been charming. And I admire many attributes of America. I see America like Pandora's box in that respect. It causes problems but at the same time it offers hope.
thanks to Geoffrey Household's wonderful novel -
Rogue Fail