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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Cameron’s majority last?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Cameron’s majority last?
For all the difficulties that have beset Jeremy Corbyn in his first week in charge, when it comes to parliamentary votes, it’s the PM rather than the Leader of the Opposition who should worry.
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That’s not to say it will happen.
Oh yes it will.
If 'out' does not win, we can write the script now.......I fear they'll make the Nats look sober and reflective by comparison.....
Given the mess Europe is in it will require something approaching a miracle for Cameron to get much of substance out of his fellow leaders, they are baling furiously while I suspect they'll see Cameron's request as the equivalent of debating the toss between a twist and a slice in a G&T......
You will be in appropriate company on PB ....
If Zac wins London that is one by election but the Tories should fancy their chances there unless they are deep in mid term Blues by then. Otherwise I agree with David that Cameron has a much, much better chance of making his majority last than Major did.
Emily Maitlis and Dennis Skinner. Watch till the end.
RodCrosby said:
Chin's an idiot.
The Constitution includes the 14th Amendment, which was ratified in 1868.
In 1875 the Supreme Court said:
"The Constitution does not, in words, say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that..."
So the 14th Amendment doesn't tell us who is an NBC. As if the above wasn't conclusive enough, there are other reasons why it doesn't, but I'm typing this in bed, so they can wait...
Rod, I know this is your hobby horse, but you are way off base. Here is the Harvard Law Review on the subject - or are they another leftie bunch of idiots?
http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/
As I have posted before, British Common Law and the enactments of the First Congress, many of whom were drafters of the Constitution, are the key. And the consensus except amongst Birthers and those who knowingly and selectively cite legal text in support of the Birther viewpoint, is that those who by virtue of birth are considered US citizens without need to go through a naturalization process, are considered natural born citizens. This includes all children of US citizens born overseas, in line with British law at that time, but expanded to include the children of mothers who were US citizens.
The EU ref is one of many possible events but neither Inners or Outers would gain by forcing a further General election.
MPs age
0ver 70: 24 (Lab 16, Con 8) - Lab has 4 over 80 - Kaufman, Skinner, Winnick & Flynn
60-69: 98 (Lab 50, Con 40)
http://constitution-unit.com/2015/06/25/the-age-of-the-new-parliament/
https://smithinstitutethinktank.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/who-governs-britain.pdf
We have no idea what will happen. At this stage in 1992 they were saying that Labour could never win again. Same again for the Tories in 2005.
Not watched it yet, but the Inside F1 edition from yesterday has an interesting headline - 'Mercedes floundering'.
Edited extra bit: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34293200
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/junior-doctors-are-being-treated-so-badly-that-we-may-be-forced-to-strike-10507763.html
Now they have elected someone even worse..
The influence of the unions has played no small part in Labour';s downfall.
http://youtu.be/ReIAna459sg
Hangover. – keep the noise down please…
Whoever they do elect will spend three years and an election apologising for the time when labour lost its mind.
A bit like HAL the computer in 2001 a space odyssey
''I'm feeling much better now Dave.......''
"Conservatives the party of the young? Tommorow belongs to me..."
That's always how I see the Tories.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29Mg6Gfh9Co
EDIT. Sorry Jonathan but great minds......
I wonder what the SNP would do too. They can't do much better than their current standing after all.
The fact that there's a referendum would make any Tory to UKIP defection a bit daft.
All in all I think Cameron (or whoever else if he steps aside at some point) is well positioned to stay the course until 2020.
I do think there are lots of potential and dramatic game changers ahead though. The European migrant crisis primarily, but also risks associated with the world economy and its precarious debt fuelled position.
My hunch as to a transition to a new leader would be that Cameron serves all the way to the election, but the GE is fought under the mandate of a leader elect. That'd seem the cleanest way to me, but it's just a wild guess.
However, the fact that only Carswell held his seat (and that with a drastically reduced majority), will deter all but those towards the end of their careers.
I also suspect that Cameron will allow those who wish to campaign for Out to so, which reduces the need for defection.
EDIT: If it is won 51:49 by "In", with promises that are seen to have been broken, then all bets are off, of course.
I hadn't seen that before. It's brilliant!
You think Labour has the balls to get rid of Corbyn, or that he would voluntarily resign?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
My guess would be that the patriotic - particularly in the North of England - will move towards UKIP. The metropolitan Europhiles will go the LibDems and the Greens. And those who wish for competent government will head to the Conservatives.
But where they look to have a point is this issue about physician associates (i.e. not doctors) who are being offered £50k a year compared with £30-39k for a senior house officer position. Do you know what this is all about?
Personally I think they should go out on strike - they have just as much right to defend their interests as any other worker. What does annoy me, though, is when either side uses the emotion of their work to try to generate sympathy. At the end of the day a doctor is no more of less important than an engineer or an analyst.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/get-down-with-ashdown#.saJzr6jzD
Paddy A plans to unseat Ally C from the top LDDJ slot with some bangin' choons!
If they want to work 40 hrs a week, then it will take a LOT longer to get the experience necessary to get to registrar and then consultant.
Let them strike and see how much support they get on a salary of 40k
As currently constituted Corbyn would be replaced by another Corbynite (or, given the grisly progression displayed post-Blair, someone even worse).
He argues that Corbynistas aren't revolutionaries, but counter-revolutionaries - they're authentic Labour and it's the Blairites are the aberration within the Party.
SYRIZA is currently polling about 33%, ahead of ND on 31%. My guess would be a coalition combining SYRIZA plus one or more of the centrists political parties.
While the excessive hours are gone (72 hours max in any particular week and 48 hour average under EWTD) this change is being driven by a desire to cut the paybill and will fragment training further.
Many of these posts are difficult to fill, this isn't going to help.
@tg86 planning to visit fortress King Power next week?
Instead I think there could form a "UKIP" group *within* the Conservative Party, which asserts its dominance and independence far more in the event of an unsuccessful renegotiation and the leadership campaigning for a Remain vote.
The leadership really needs to get all its big and contentious legislation through by the end of next year, because from 2017 onwards the whipping may become much harder.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3147347/BBC-plans-send-200-staff-scaled-coverage-Lib-Dem-conference-s-25-times-number-MPs.html
But joking aside, the refugee/migrant crisis is going to boost the hard right everywhere, and may do more to reform the EU than anything that Dave does. If I were advising him I would aim for a 2017 or 18 referendum to see how things go.
Luxury!
I did have a question for you - how long _does_ it take to train a doctor these days? Not necessarily to consultant, but enough so they're safe to let loose in a ward unaccompanied
Yes, I will be going to Leicester next week. I went to Zagreb on Wednesday (via Vienna) and hopefully that's the last time Wenger thinks that it's a good idea to leave Coquelin on the bench. I travelled by train between Vienna and Zagreb and I didn't see any Syrians, but a dozen young men boarded the train at Graz and they turned out to be from Iraq.
Everyone is out at the moment. Total peace .......
I have heard EU sources make the argument, "Cameron is trying to discuss with his neighbour while his house is on fire". Well if the house is on fire for the best part of a decade due to new ones constantly breaking out, perhaps some sort of discussion of fire codes is in order.
The Midlands also looks good for UKIP to scoop up Labour voters.
http://bma.org.uk/jdpaybanding/
The new proposals do not change the overall hours but do reduce the hours considered "antisocial" and hence the applicable pay band.
See you next week. It should be an interesting test next week at the KP. Mahrez is an obvious star but watch out for Kante. He is our best summer signing, a real midfield ratter. Will Arsene rest players with the CL match on 29th? Or will he want a full strength team at the KP.
My endocrinologist is Ghanian, my psychiatrist is Iraqi (both are consultants).
Recently (I think it was Beverley_C) was pointing out that the NHS is heavily, heavily reliant on immigrants. I failed to point out at the time that this is one of the inevitable consequences of mass immigration itself (duh, bear with me
The way you handle that is to import your professionals. This strikes me as immoral, as we're depriving other countries of their natural middle classes. However, it works, after a fashion.
It's particularly exacerbated in this country due to our five-year spending rounds. It's always possible to kick training issues into the long grass as any solution will take longer than your planning horizon.
Junior doctors have always had a tough time regardless of the colour of the government of the day but the financial rewards of the job seem to be worth it. My brother in law retired as a GP recently. He is not hurting on his pension. His salary was good enough to allow him to have saved up some very nice little nest-eggs too.
If Wenger knows what's good for him he won't be resting players again! I guess Giroud will probably play at Spurs in the League Cup and maybe Leicester. Our problem, in my opinion, is Wenger won't drop either Cazorla or Ozil. He moved Cazorla out of his favoured position behind the striker to make room for Ozil, which means Ramsey has been shifted on to the right. We need Aaron in the middle as he can run and is a genuine box to box midfielder.
Anyway, got to go as I'm off to Stamford Bridge to watch us lose again.
I'm waiting at a GP surgery walkin clinic. Because I can never get through during their limited periods they take appointments.
Why are GPs allowed to limit how many appointments they take? It makes it impossible for patients to work out which ones are over subscribed. And for the government to monitor the true scale of excess demand.
We should force all GPs to take appointments at all times, to publish the length of the waiting list and to scrap catchment areas. That means everyone can see where is easiest to get an appointment and help balance out demand over the network.
Just some ideas.
Cameron has had an unbelievably lucky time as PM, able to deflect blame to the libs, after winning a surprise majority against dreadful opposition he has been presented with the gift that is Corbyn. The EU will pose far greater problems and I think (and sincerely hope) he won't cope well. The mood of the general public is completely different to that of parliament where I'd guess 90% of MPs would vote IN. The 10% will cause real problems for Cameron, more importantly the electorate look at the news and without staging demonstrations are quietly very worried.
Cameron's best hope is to hold the referendum ASAP, OUT becomes more likely all the time. He'll know if that occurs his career and legacy are in tatters and people make mistakes under pressure.
The issue is not just one of Terms and Conditions but also a lack of transparancy and refusal to negotiate by Jeremy Hunt and the DoH. Consultants are in much the same boat, but would probably work to rule rather than strike, and may do similtaneously.
It seems crazy that we are limiting highly skilled doctors coming here when we have so much unskilled immigration from within and outside the EU.
Just who the f*ck is getting all the visas ?
Sgt Blackman is my subject this morning:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239156/Battle-justice-Jailed-commando-s-legal-campaign-gets-50k-boost-billionaire-philanthropist-Tory-peer-Lord-Ashcroft.html
NavyLookout @NavyLookout Sep 12
Oliver Lee, Former CO of 45 Royal Marines resigned over betrayal of Sgt Blackman http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/angus-the-mearns/former-arbroath-co-quits-royal-marines-accusing-military-chiefs-of-alexander-blackman-betrayal-1.899550 …?
Telegraph News @TelegraphNews Sep 14
Sgt Al Blackman 'hung out to dry' by politicians says wife http://tgr.ph/1iqwiC7
Something has smelled about this case for months; now it stinks to high heaven.
Medical stuff is not really my cup of tea
But the EU is an issue that can't just be waved away. How to make the most of that when the rest of the continent isn't interested? One possibility is to come up with a solution in which they would be interested; which does address the issues of the Eurozone and migration. But the inevitable logic of that is more centralisation, not less.
All the same, with Corbyn having been dragged firmly into the In camp, that leaves a lot of ambivalent Labour and ex-Labour voters for UKIP to go at initially during the referendum campaign.
From a Conservative Party point of view, there is a good case for Cameron to resign shortly after the referendum whichever way it goes, and for the new leader to seek an immediate mandate, particularly if Corbyn still heads Labour.
http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/group-international-nurses-arrive-Leicester-s/story-21082251-detail/story.html
Recruitment from outside the EU is very difficult:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-34191123
There are only 30 000 tier 4 skilled immigration visas nationally, much of the remaining non -EU immigration is family reunification, spouse visas, students and refugees.
Which of these do you think we should ban?
And of course the obvious thing to do is expand UK nurse traing, and the number of postgraduate medical training places, but the Tories have reduced these. Joined up thinking? It doesn't seem so!
So this should just be his/her kids up to the age of 18, right ?
In order to fill a vacancy with a non EU Doctor I need to have the advert on NHSJobs for 4 weeks, interview, ensure documentation allows GMC registration, and can then only get a visa for them if no appointable UK or EU resident applies. In practice this means it is very difficult to fill short term vacancies with this method to cover maternity leave etc, and more than half of our junior doctors are female rwenty and thirty somethings.
Far easier to find a Greek locum, who can be automatically registered with the GMC. We could not keep our department viable without EU freedom of movement. Other specialities are worse; the East Mids GP scheme has many unfilled vacancies.
The IRA man turned out to be con man and was found guilty of defrauding Corbyn and other crimes at the Old Bailey in 1987.
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/jeremy-corbyn-tried-to-fund-ira-bombers-flight/
Unbelievable this man is leader of the Labour party.
Restricting immigration is not as easy as some would make out.
Someone with a student free access licence to the Times database may be able to find it.
I don't doubt that being in battle is a stressful situation but soldiers are trained for that and do know their rules of engagement. From the reports, it sounds as if his team are not contesting whether he committed a crime, just what that crime was.
We cannot simply ignore rules of war and of engagement simply because battle is hard, any more than because the soldier in question happened to be wearing a British uniform. That is the road to justifying - or at least excusing away - any behaviour.