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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Getting ready for the expected Corbyn victory – leading par

As ever the News Statesman’s George Eaton hits the nail on the head with these Tweets. Even Mr. Corbyn’s biggest opponents have got to be careful that they are not seen to be attacking a newly elected leader.
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Resurgam, said the submarine.
However, quite a few MPs have been burning their bridges with Jeremy Corbyn. Whether the Labour right can remain coherent is an open question.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m4 minutes ago
CORRECTION Boris is in fifth place in ConHome next leader survey.
The shame. THE SHAME.
Further evidence that Tory members shouldn't be allowed anywhere near the Tory leadership election process.
Liam Fox in fourth place! For Fox's sake.
(I'm not a fan of Liam Fox if you hadn't guessed)
The problem with coming over all loyal now is that many senior Labour figures have been saying how unelectable Corbyn is all Summer. It'll take some fancy footwork to row back from that post-election - though fancy verbal footwork is a key skill of the political climber. Even so, it's something of a catch-22: the longer that senior figures remain loyal, the harder it becomes to distance themselves from his leadership afterwards - but if they're not loyal, they risk any failure being attributed to their lack of support not Corbyn's lack of ability.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34124142
The government is set to announce "significant" changes to its planned rules on an in-out EU referendum.
The changes will focus on the so-called purdah rules, which stop ministers using public money to campaign for one side, from 28 days before such a vote.
____________________
Cameron twisting this way and that to get his way on the referendum.
The terms on which I can be laid are not public.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-19247383
Utter bargain if you ask me.
Austria threatens to scupper Cameron's #EU negotiations over migrant row http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11837860/Austria-threatens-to-scupper-Camerons-EU-negotiations-over-migrant-row.html … via @Telegraph
Lord Cornelius @LordCornelius 4m4 minutes ago
@BetterOffOut @AlanJohnson35 @Telegraph In that case we don't negotiate at all, just give notice of withdrawal and watch Brussels panic.
Even pip-squeak Austria can threaten the UK, from behind an EU fence.
There is wild talk of a challenge (see Winterton a few days ago), but seems to me this is highly unlikely. Apart from anything else, who in Labour could face another leadership election this year (and the cost)? If there's a meltdown in next year's locals and Scots then the muttering will seriously begin.
An alternative is the Cameron/Osborne come up with a HoC vote that so splits the party that Corbyn resigns (in utter relief no doubt) on a point of principle. Trident? Syria?
In the meantime, those who are virulently anti-Corbyn would be best to keep their heads down for 12 months and develop some alternative ideas. It seems to be a fairly universal view that non of the three other candidates have remotely given the impression of a well worked out policy platform for 2020s Britain.
And lo, did the Creed of Morris prove true once again.
The salivating fangs grew dry, tails fell between legs, and Labour backbenchers rolled over, meek as puppies (though not quite as dangerous).
Maybe I'll be wrong. But so far Conservatives = wolves, Labour = sheep, Lib Dems = high students, is holding true.
However identikit the others at least they can appear on the media and give battle without being diverted by Hamas
During the holidays we'd all forgotten what Tory ministers sounded like. Maybe this sort of interview will wake them up
(I backed Yvette at 10/1 three weeks ago)
"This is a tribe lost in a desert with no star to follow, and no inspirational leader to point to a new one. Across the world, parties that thrived on the socialist ideals of an industrialising society are losing their relevance, and what we are witnessing is a symptom and dramatic demonstration of that fact."
"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."
Groucho Marx
I don't much rate the others but Cooper has belatedly showed some signs of life.
Takes balls to say she wants 10,000 refugees a month in this present political climate.
Huzzah for Yvette.
"Vote for me, I have ovaries" was a pathetic line to play, and five years of listening to that sort of nonsense would be almost as bad as Comrade Corbyn's communist calamity.
Watched the Channel 4 piece with the quartet yesterday, and thought it was very much Corbyn Vs Cooper.
for all we know 10,000 in Cooper speak could be a number between 4 and 92337658.
This isn't courage it's random number generation.
Michael Gove - 100%
George Osborne - 0%
Boris Johnson - 0%
Theresa May - 0%
Sajid Javid - 0%
Liam Fox - 0%
Jeremy Hunt - 0%
Nicki Morgan - 0%
If Daily Mirror did GEs who would need Carlsburg!!
JICIPM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
Did she say 10,000 per month? I only half-listened but in the the clip I saw it sounded like a total of 10,000, which would be a drop in the ocean.
I note the BBC now use the generic term of 'refugees' rather than 'asylum seekers'.
Well technically my friend asked me for my opinion how she should vote and after listening to me, she gave Yvette her first preference, Kendall her second preference and left the other two blank.
She should have left all 4 blank given the quality of the candidates.
Even Osborne is better than this lot,
it's Cooper speak, the numbers could mean anything 10 k, 120 k ?
Merely rounding
Umunna and the other figures on the sane wing of the Labour Party do have a difficult task ahead. They'll want to distance themselves as much as possible from the disaster without being too obviously disloyal, at least in public (I'm sure there will be oodles of juicy unattributed quotes from 'source close to...').
But Osborne would make a better LOTO in a kind of deviously pointless fashion than any of this quartet.
She's clearly better than Burnham or Corbyn. But identity politics is a vile poison.
Happily, being not even a £3 pretend Labour supporter, I don't have to grapple with that sort of question.
Unarguably? One must refer you to yesterday's discussion on the matter
Jeremy Corbyn really needs a Labour win in the London mayoral election.
There's quite a bit of argument about it already.
"Well, that's also true for JC. And the reason is that class-based politics, which is what Labour was founded to promote, are dead and gone (the rich have won, totally and utterly - the rest of us live by their grace & favour). What we are seeing is the refeudalization of capitalist society."
I sat in a cafe outside the casino in Monte Carlo yesterday and considered that I've never been anywhere where I've seen a more conspicuous show of wealth. It was like a fashion show for cars with a backdrop of a harbour bulging with private yachts.
I wondered why such ostentation wasn't bad form anymore?
The only thing I could come up with was that in the past big money was often inherited.The new money is largely self made. The Arabs discoved oil the internet threw up billionaires the Russians their oligarchs and any talented sportsman or media entertainer worth their salt made millions overnight. Not attractive in some ways but more of a meritocricy.
Rightly or wrongly it is now open season for those wanting a better life. There seems to be an assumption if they can get into mainland europe they can stay.
It's always funny when the BBC line up some foreign spokesman to give the expected soft soap sympathetic line, but the live interview goes somewhere else.
Talking about the issue in Hungary. The person on five live started talking about the Roma who dont work and are out looking for better benefits in Europe.
There are genuinely persecuted groups who have no future, no life in the Middle East and Europe should offer them refuge.
The Arab world is fond of talking about honour. Well, it should do the honourable thing and offer to help fellow Arabs. If the Qataris have enough money for football and buying up London hotels they have enough money to help fellow suffering Arabs. Isn't charity meant to be one of the key obligations for Muslims?
This issue should be dominating the Labour leadership debate- not the anachronistic throwback to 1970's student politics that Corbyn represents. Labour is just making itself irrelevant- so well done to Yvette yesterday for speaking about it. If I hadn't voted for Andy already, she would have got my vote- just for that.
As to our own Govt- I really do not know what the hell they are doing to engage with it at all, apart from sticking their heads in the sand. May's visit to Calais was quite frankly pathetic. Cameron just doesn't look like he's up to dealing with a crisis in his own kitchen, never mind the country.
If things carry on we may well need to start thinking about a National Govt- not thinking about who the next Tory leader is. Europe may well need to develop new emergency governance arrangements too.
At this moment in our history we need people of substance and vision. When I look at our lot, I despair, I really do. That is why Yvette impressed so much yesterday- at least she has the guts to speak about possible solutions.
Correction: Jeremy Corbyn really needs a Sadiq Khan win in the London mayoral election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/31/mediterranean-refugees-europeans-crisis
peak virtue signalling ?
10,000 a year is different to 10,000 a day, so saying 10,000 is totally meaningless.
I remember explaining concentration to someone in the HR department once (yes, really). A spoonful of sugar in a glass of water is obvious, a spoonful of sugar in a swimming pool, less so.
Sorry, I must be in a grumpy mood. Time to get my anorak.
"To the political law that you can’t fool all of the people all of the time he added Blair’s law – that you can make a very serious attempt at it. "
"If there was an NVQ Level 1 in How To Run a Party, the crucial nature of the qualifying period to vote in a leadership election would be on the syllabus, possibly on the first page."
"The weakness of the mainstream candidates to an extent unprecedented in any election in a major party in British parliamentary history."
"In Britain and across Europe, it is left to fringe parties to prey on those dissatisfied with the vast and rapid changes in modern society."
Mr. G, but Kendall's policy approach does at least acknowledge reality.
EDIT: And since when was the distance between Turkey and an island just off the coast of Turkey "across the Mediterranean"?
And prepare for the imminent collapse of the Schengen Agreement.
None of them are fleeing persecution in France that would justify our granting them asylum.
There are rich Arab governments and rich Arab countries with territory. Stop giving the Arab world a free pass from the problems they have created.
If we're using WW2 analogies it would be like Europe dumping the millions of German refugees expelled from Eastern Europe onto the shores of Tunisia and Libya and Egypt and Lebanon and letting them get on with it.
I mean who'd want to live in France, it's full of French people
Incidentally, if you want a laugh, there's always some academic at the LSE to provide one:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2013/04/16/thatcher-schengen/
"Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others."
Groucho Marx "
Groucho-"What!! You've got 14 kids??"
Mrs Rosenboum "Yes I have. I love my husband...."
Groucho-"Well I love my cigar but I take it out one in a while"
Where exactly will these extra 120,000 people a year, go? A refugee camp larger than the city of Bath on Salisbury Plain or the Scottish Highlands maybe?
Better Off Out should be pushing this, if they can ever get their act into gear.
"I like Yvette. Really impressed me yesterday over Syrian refugees.
Takes balls to say she wants 10,000 refugees a month in this present political climate.
Huzzah for Yvette."
My feelings too and when you hear loathsome creatures like Nicky Morgan you realize what a bit of humanity is worth. What's more if it's not too late it'll do her campaign a power of good.