politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper
The LAB leadership Betting has been pretty stable since the YouGov poll last month that had Corbyn on 55% on first preferences. Inevitably he’s become the overwhelming favourite as can be seen by the chart.
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First, glorious first!0
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Second ever post, and second!0
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For what it's worth, I never got a paper ballot. But I got an e-mail link over a week ago and voted almost immediately. I suspect that's how most folks did it.0
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I did get my ballot papers in time but it is still in the envelope. When is the last date ?Kevin_McCandless said:For what it's worth, I never got a paper ballot. But I got an e-mail link over a week ago and voted almost immediately. I suspect that's how most folks did it.
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The 12th?0
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Out of all the four candidates, Andy Burnham is the one I find most pathetic and gloomy and dreary and vacuous and nincompoopismatic. I don't want him to win, almost to the extent that Jeremy Corbyn would be better (almost, but not quite). I am cautiously optimistic that Cooper will beat Burnham into the top two.
If Jeremy Corbyn wins on 12th September, the purges, disappearances and torture of the dissident and renegade Blairites, crypto-Blairites, neo-Blairites, crypto-Tories and quasi-Tories will begin at full speed on 13th September.
Much more important, of course, is what happens on the evening of Wednesday 9th September (if God wills). By my reckoning, actuarially, Her Majesty has a 99.7% probability of reaching that date alive and breaking the record. That is based on age, without even taking into account her excellent health.0 -
(OT) For those who thrive on statistics, Daniel Radcliffe has overtaken the diver Freddie Woodward and has again become Officially the Most Gorgeous Man in the World, as assessed by the Worldwide Association for the Assessment, Appreciation and Advancement of Gorgeousness and Hunkiness. Freddie only held the position for one month, and this is the first time that anyone has regained the title after losing it.0
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The voting seems to be much more spread out, if only because of the time delays in Labour getting voting forms or links to people and the slightly farcical attempt at "vetting".
Unless the polling is designed to make the polling of the GE look somewhat better in retrospect it is difficult to see this making much difference for Jezzbolah. The fact that the Tories are much more openly targeting him, as yesterday's thread pointed out, indicates that they think he has it in the bag.
From the competent and at least vaguely credible opposition point of view I still think that Cooper was the correct option but it would be hard for even her keenest supporters to argue that she has enhanced her case during this campaign. Not quite the ever evolving car crash that is Burnham but way too dull and safe to catch fire.
There is no doubt in my mind that Osborne in particular will see this as an opportunity to dominate the centre ground in the same way as Blair did while the Tories were off on one. This is not good news for Lib Dems hoping to regain some of those 27 seats lost to the Tories at the next election. They can only hope that the next Tory leadership campaign is even half as self indulgent as the Labour one has been. I think that is unlikely.0 -
Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
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So Farage says UKIP will run its own No campaign, instead of joining one of the two exisiting campaigns.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
That should bugger up any chance of a coherent campaign to get out. Well done Nigel. Brussel's useful idiot.0 -
It's not a problem. People will vote No for many different reasons - putting different ones out there will attract more votes to the campaign than it will repel. Referendums are fundamentally different from elections in that sense as there's no government to form afterwards so it doesn't particularly matter if those on one side or the other don't agree about everything. Whether the media will pick up on that subtlety is a different question, of course.JosiasJessop said:Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.0 -
It is difficult to see what UKIP in general or Nigel in particular can bring to this campaign in a positive way. They have roughly 10% of the vote, most of whom are very strongly committed to out. It is nowhere near enough and the risk is that they might act as a positive disincentive to the other 41% required.
As a major party completely committed to an Out vote they should in theory be able to provide some organisational heft but after the GE that looks a fairly ridiculous proposition with even supporters admitting that many of their volunteers were at least as great a hindrance as a help.
I am still very much undecided and waiting to see what Cameron can get in the form of protection from EZ dominance going forward. That, for me, is the key issue. No one would ever seriously pretend that the EU was democratic but I ultimately care less about that than the ability of our leadership to protect our national interest. We really don't have that at the moment because of the increasing trend of the EZ to vote as a bloc and the extent of QMV. We have seen that on financial regulation and the appointment of that chocolate fireguard as President.
If Cameron can agree a "double majority" of EZ and non-EZ members for QMV I think I would vote for in. Structure is much more important than individual issues because the EU will continue to evolve as it is buffeted by events and challenges.
I fear that the focus will be on restrictions on benefit entitlements for EU citizens coming here or some other such trivia which ultimately will not make much difference (since so many EU citizens come directly to a job anyway). We need to change the way the game is played or we need to stop playing.0 -
A clear answer to what the alternative to membership actually is would be a good start.david_herdson said:
It's not a problem. People will vote No for many different reasons - putting different ones out there will attract more votes to the campaign than it will repel. Referendums are fundamentally different from elections in that sense as there's no government to form afterwards so it doesn't particularly matter if those on one side or the other don't agree about everything. Whether the media will pick up on that subtlety is a different question, of course.JosiasJessop said:Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.0 -
Cameron going for the incomes policy option of forcing employers to pay National Minimum Wage, rather than scrapping it and the distorting effects of tax credits.
Perhaps he was asleep when there were lectures on government failure and the limits to the role of the state.
Why blunder in with a policy like this, when Labour cuts its throat, wrists, and stomach.0 -
Like all PPEs he hasn't a clue about the E.dr_spyn said:Cameron going for the incomes policy option of forcing employers to pay National Minimum Wage, rather than scrapping it and the distorting effects of tax credits.
Perhaps he was asleep when there were lectures on government failure and the limits to the role of the state.
Why blunder in with a policy like this, when Labour cuts its throat, wrists, and stomach.0 -
I don't know. It would allow people to vote out without having to associate themselves with perceived fruitcakes, loonies, and racists (NB I'm not making this assertion about UKIP members/supporters, but the perception is out there I suspect)MarqueeMark said:So Farage says UKIP will run its own No campaign, instead of joining one of the two exisiting campaigns.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
That should bugger up any chance of a coherent campaign to get out. Well done Nigel. Brussel's useful idiot.0 -
It would be typical of the current polling climate if there are £3 joiners whive said they'd vote for JC and never get round to it.0
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welcome Mr £.MitchellStirling said:It would be typical of the current polling climate if there are £3 joiners whive said they'd vote for JC and never get round to it.
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I fear you are wrong. Farage is (to say the least) a divisive character, and his narcissistic nature will make him want to have the loudest voice. He will drown out the other campaigns, and he will also argue with them and try to rule them, as he does with his own party.david_herdson said:
It's not a problem. People will vote No for many different reasons - putting different ones out there will attract more votes to the campaign than it will repel. Referendums are fundamentally different from elections in that sense as there's no government to form afterwards so it doesn't particularly matter if those on one side or the other don't agree about everything. Whether the media will pick up on that subtlety is a different question, of course.JosiasJessop said:Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.
Which would be good, except for the fact that Farage is possibly the most Marmite politician - people either love him dearly, or dislike him intensely. Although he might soon be overtaken in these stakes by Corbyn. He will not win over many undecided voters.
Your point about having 'answers' is a good one: the problem with having several campaigns is that the 'answers' will often be contradictory. 'No' needs a united voice, with people (r even sub-campaigns) concentrating on different but consistent and agreed messages.
On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
I know some will disagree, but if No want to win, then Farage needs to be shut in a room on his own for the next couple of years.0 -
I am getting bored... We have not had any bonkers announcements from Corbyn for at least 48 hrs.,.. the last one was the privy council and the Queens powers.. We need something on PB to make us all laugh .0
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Try Polly ToynbeeSquareRoot said:I am getting bored... We have not had any bonkers announcements from Corbyn for at least 48 hrs.,.. the last one was the privy council and the Queens powers.. We need something on PB to make us all laugh .
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In fact, let's do that anyway.JosiasJessop said:david_herdson said:
It's not a problem. People will vote No for many different reasons - putting different ones out there will attract more votes to the campaign than it will repel. Referendums are fundamentally different from elections in that sense as there's no government to form afterwards so it doesn't particularly matter if those on one side or the other don't agree about everything. Whether the media will pick up on that subtlety is a different question, of course.JosiasJessop said:Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.
I know some will disagree, but if No want to win, then Farage needs to be shut in a room on his own for the next couple of years.0 -
On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
In many respects it is more the 'Yes' campaign that need some positivity. There isn't. in my view, a groundswell of love for the EU even among those voting yes, I think it is much more a pragmatic vote, fear over loss of jobs, better the devil you know and so on.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Tom and Mr. Stirling.
Mr. Jessop, I've maintained In will win easily. This only makes me more confident of that view.
On-topic: there's still an air of 'surely this can't happen' around electing the likes of Corbyn to the leadership. I can't imagine the Falklands comments helped him but the majority will have voted by then.0 -
In many respects it is more the 'Yes' campaign that need some positivity. There isn't. in my view, a groundswell of love for the EU even among those voting yes, I think it is much more a pragmatic vote, fear over loss of jobs, better the devil you know and so on.GibTom said:On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
I'm not sure that there isn't a love for the EU amongst many. Some friends of mine are very pro-EU, and one in particular is exceptionally so: she's almost an inverse-Farage, in that every time she opens her mouth on the topic she tends to do more harm than good!0 -
Very likely. Such little economics as I understand comes from my Masters' degree from UCL.Alanbrooke said:
Like all PPEs he hasn't a clue about the E.dr_spyn said:Cameron going for the incomes policy option of forcing employers to pay National Minimum Wage, rather than scrapping it and the distorting effects of tax credits.
Perhaps he was asleep when there were lectures on government failure and the limits to the role of the state.
Why blunder in with a policy like this, when Labour cuts its throat, wrists, and stomach.
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OGH "There was an unsourced report at the start of last week that 40% of the selectorate then had not voted – a figure that seemed very high."
Well if 25% do not vote (75% turnout) then it actually means that only 15% are yet to vote.0 -
I imagine this would have been true if everyone had to vote by post. But it's not that difficult to get round to voting on the internet.MitchellStirling said:It would be typical of the current polling climate if there are £3 joiners whive said they'd vote for JC and never get round to it.
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I keep wondering when or whether there’s going to be a “proper” IN campaign. Last time the European Movement ran a conventional political campaign.... leaflets, canvassing etc..
Is thatb likely to happen this time, I wonder!0 -
Just a reminder that Brent crude leapt to $53 in the past week.0
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Good Morning, after a soggy Bank Holiday. I blame Corbyn!!!0
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Do you believe the fundamentals in China have really changed ?Financier said:Just a reminder that Brent crude leapt to $53 in the past week.
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I actually disagree with having unified campaigns on this issue. I think both Yes and No need to make different arguments to different types of people. That said, No will need Farage to be disciplined to not put off middle class professionals and women, and its not clear he can do that.0
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I'm not sure that there isn't a love for the EU amongst many. Some friends of mine are very pro-EU, and one in particular is exceptionally so: she's almost an inverse-Farage, in that every time she opens her mouth on the topic she tends to do more harm than good!JosiasJessop said:
In many respects it is more the 'Yes' campaign that need some positivity. There isn't. in my view, a groundswell of love for the EU even among those voting yes, I think it is much more a pragmatic vote, fear over loss of jobs, better the devil you know and so on.GibTom said:On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
According to the opinion polls, thats a very tiny share of the electorate.0 -
I can't comment on his education, but most economics research shows that increasing the minimum wage (within limits) has very little effect on employment, in contradiction of the Econ 101 answer.Alanbrooke said:
Like all PPEs he hasn't a clue about the E.dr_spyn said:Cameron going for the incomes policy option of forcing employers to pay National Minimum Wage, rather than scrapping it and the distorting effects of tax credits.
Perhaps he was asleep when there were lectures on government failure and the limits to the role of the state.
Why blunder in with a policy like this, when Labour cuts its throat, wrists, and stomach.0 -
Apologies to go off topic but Clinton's emails have a UK flavour to them now
New Hillary Clinton emails reveal David Miliband's heartache at leadership loss
Emails from former US secretary of state’s private server shows backing for Miliband as foreign secretary over ‘disingenuous’ Hague and ‘mad’ Mandelson
http://bit.ly/1KZwwGV0 -
Looks like some red faces in the Clintons household.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/hillary-clinton/11835908/Close-aide-warned-Hillary-Clinton-that-David-Cameron-would-be-no-partner-to-US.html0 -
The Mandelson one is a cracker.TheScreamingEagles said:Apologies to go off topic but Clinton's emails have a UK flavour to them now
New Hillary Clinton emails reveal David Miliband's heartache at leadership loss
Emails from former US secretary of state’s private server shows backing for Miliband as foreign secretary over ‘disingenuous’ Hague and ‘mad’ Mandelson
http://bit.ly/1KZwwGV0 -
Mr. Eagles, isn't it well-known she and David Miliband got along rather well?0
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The BBC article suggests Lord Sainsbury will be bankrolling the Yes campaign. Isn't it a bit dangerous for the pro-EU side to be bankrolled by big business, especially one like retail that has a vested interest in a flood of cheap unskilled labour to keep people on low wages and part time hours?0
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I'm shocked to the core that Mandy was engaged in nefarious plots to make himself Foreign Secretary.Alanbrooke said:
The Mandelson one is a cracker.TheScreamingEagles said:Apologies to go off topic but Clinton's emails have a UK flavour to them now
New Hillary Clinton emails reveal David Miliband's heartache at leadership loss
Emails from former US secretary of state’s private server shows backing for Miliband as foreign secretary over ‘disingenuous’ Hague and ‘mad’ Mandelson
http://bit.ly/1KZwwGV0 -
I thought he was no longer involved with Sainsbury's?JEO said:The BBC article suggests Lord Sainsbury will be bankrolling the Yes campaign. Isn't it a bit dangerous for the pro-EU side to be bankrolled by big business, especially one like retail that has a vested interest in a flood of cheap unskilled labour to keep people on low wages and part time hours?
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It is. She had a crush on him because of his accent.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, isn't it well-known she and David Miliband got along rather well?
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If Corbyn does not win, YouGov is surely finished as a credible pollster. For all the stuff about snapshots at a moment in time. margins of error and samples etc, its polls have set the narrative for this election. If they turn out to be wrong, how will Kellner's explanations be heard above the derision?
Not that they are wrong, of course!0 -
Oh God not that UKIP smear and lie campaign against Sainsburys and his His lordship again.JEO said:The BBC article suggests Lord Sainsbury will be bankrolling the Yes campaign. Isn't it a bit dangerous for the pro-EU side to be bankrolled by big business, especially one like retail that has a vested interest in a flood of cheap unskilled labour to keep people on low wages and part time hours?
UKIP Politician Organises Sainsbury’s Boycott But Is Completely Wrong
http://bzfd.it/1N6su5I
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Depends on what their final poll says.SouthamObserver said:If Corbyn does not win, YouGov is surely finished as a credible pollster. For all the stuff about snapshots at a moment in time. margins of error and samples etc, its polls have set the narrative for this election. If they turn out to be wrong, how will Kellner's explanations be heard above the derision?
Not that they are wrong, of course!
If it there is a late swing etc.
This weekend is the the first anniversary of that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead.
Just saying.0 -
Whilst I now intend to vote No, I think you're right.
Yes have lost me. To persuade me back - they'll need to find more than scare stories.
In many respects it is more the 'Yes' campaign that need some positivity. There isn't. in my view, a groundswell of love for the EU even among those voting yes, I think it is much more a pragmatic vote, fear over loss of jobs, better the devil you know and so on.GibTom said:On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
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I'd expect that the Yes campaign will focus quite strongly on a pro-business line, with the hanging threat that all jobs, be they zero-hours, low wage or otherwise, will be threatened by leaving. I guess they'll hope that more people equate Lord Sainsbury with 'pro-business' than 'pro-economic migration'JEO said:The BBC article suggests Lord Sainsbury will be bankrolling the Yes campaign. Isn't it a bit dangerous for the pro-EU side to be bankrolled by big business, especially one like retail that has a vested interest in a flood of cheap unskilled labour to keep people on low wages and part time hours?
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There's a simple answer from No (all all the Noes) to that, which is that it's for the British people to decide after the event but that there are various options - just as there are equivalently various options for In/Yes as to what form of membership Britain wants. In doesn't have to mean joining the Euro or Schengen. Obviously, there would be some costs to each version of 'No' and the campaigns would be wise to try not to hide that fact; there are costs to each version of Yes too.DavidL said:
A clear answer to what the alternative to membership actually is would be a good start.david_herdson said:
It's not a problem. People will vote No for many different reasons - putting different ones out there will attract more votes to the campaign than it will repel. Referendums are fundamentally different from elections in that sense as there's no government to form afterwards so it doesn't particularly matter if those on one side or the other don't agree about everything. Whether the media will pick up on that subtlety is a different question, of course.JosiasJessop said:Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.
No *could* mean an EEA arrangement or a bilateral free-trade arrangement or any number of other options but asking what happens after UK exit is a bit like asking what happens after a Scottish Yes. Some questions - like the currency and EU membership - were clearly fair game as they were a direct consequence of independence and had huge uncertainties over them; others, on the other hand, were simply matters of government policy that could be decided at Holyrood now, never mind after independence and really should have had little to do with the debate. Though I suspect will have no shortage of similar distractions in the EuroRef too.0 -
Mr. Tom, they'll use the cleverly misleading Clegg line: "Three million jobs at risk if we leave".0
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MD, Wasn't that a Bad Al Campbell line originally?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tom, they'll use the cleverly misleading Clegg line: "Three million jobs at risk if we leave".
Although I may have misremembered,
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My view remains the same. Treat it like a vote of confidence. What emerges from a No vote will take years of negotiation. At the moment, the choice is between retaining an unsatisfactory arrangement, with no prospect of improvement, or the chance of a fresh start.david_herdson said:
There's a simple answer from No (all all the Noes) to that, which is that it's for the British people to decide after the event but that there are various options - just as there are equivalently various options for In/Yes as to what form of membership Britain wants. In doesn't have to mean joining the Euro or Schengen. Obviously, there would be some costs to each version of 'No' and the campaigns would be wise to try not to hide that fact; there are costs to each version of Yes too.DavidL said:
A clear answer to what the alternative to membership actually is would be a good start.david_herdson said:
It's not a problem. People will vote No for many different reasons - putting different ones out there will attract more votes to the campaign than it will repel. Referendums are fundamentally different from elections in that sense as there's no government to form afterwards so it doesn't particularly matter if those on one side or the other don't agree about everything. Whether the media will pick up on that subtlety is a different question, of course.JosiasJessop said:Well, it looks more likely that we'll vote to remain in the EU:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34110960
Three 'No' campaigns, one led by Farage, with three different contradictory messages, arguing amongst themselves as well as with 'Yes'.
The bigger problem for a campaign is when they don't have any answers to a question (e.g. Scottish Yes and the currency); not when they have too many.
No *could* mean an EEA arrangement or a bilateral free-trade arrangement or any number of other options but asking what happens after UK exit is a bit like asking what happens after a Scottish Yes. Some questions - like the currency and EU membership - were clearly fair game as they were a direct consequence of independence and had huge uncertainties over them; others, on the other hand, were simply matters of government policy that could be decided at Holyrood now, never mind after independence and really should have had little to do with the debate. Though I suspect will have no shortage of similar distractions in the EuroRef too.0 -
Mr Wintour has a dig into the challenges Jezzbollah faces as PMQs could be just a fortnight away... http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/31/the-jeremy-corbyn-victory-scenario-confrontation-or-cooperation
Within days of his election on 12 September, he will meet his MPs, only 20 of whom ever truly backed him. Two days later, he will face prime minister’s questions, an event he has watched from the backbenches for the past 32 years. A fortnight later, he faces four days of scrutiny at a traumatised Labour annual conference. At some point in this melee, he must appoint a new frontbench that may have lost some of its best talent. He will need to appoint a chief whip who is likely to be told by many Labour MPs that Corbyn is entitled to receive the levels of loyalty he gave previous Labour leaders – none.
The Conservative party has prepared a parliamentary welcome in which Corbyn will need to decide how to vote on a series of touchstone issues covering public spending, welfare and defence. It will all be designed to show that Corbyn’s support is a million miles from the heartbeat of the country...
In Simon Fletcher, his campaign chief of staff, Corbyn has a focused, level headed and talented adviser who worked for Ken Livingstone for many years, including Livingstone’s failed attempt to beat Boris Johnson in Labour London in 2012. Many of Corbyn’s initial staff will come from the group that have worked for Livingstone in the past. Trickett, the former parliamentary aide to Miliband, will be influential, as will Tom Watson on the assumption he is elected deputy.
Beyond that, however, Corbyn faces a huge organisational challenge when he has to assemble a coherent leadership team that can harness the unstructured popular movement that has formed around him, outside Westminster. He does not yet have a plan how to relate to the new left infrastructure – Red Labour, Grassroots Alliance, the People’s Assembly and the various leftist parties drawn to the return of a lost radicalism.0 -
Econ 101 doesn't know about transaction costs.JEO said:
I can't comment on his education, but most economics research shows that increasing the minimum wage (within limits) has very little effect on employment, in contradiction of the Econ 101 answer.Alanbrooke said:
Like all PPEs he hasn't a clue about the E.dr_spyn said:Cameron going for the incomes policy option of forcing employers to pay National Minimum Wage, rather than scrapping it and the distorting effects of tax credits.
Perhaps he was asleep when there were lectures on government failure and the limits to the role of the state.
Why blunder in with a policy like this, when Labour cuts its throat, wrists, and stomach.
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Mr. Pubgoer, might be, though that's the first time I've heard the deceiver's name mentioned in this regard.0
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'The rise in Ukip's support is effectively serving as a barometer for Labour's shortcomings. Our party has lost our connection with millions of people. Too many no longer trust us, are unsure about what Labour stands for and do not believe we are on their side...
In places like Basildon and Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Labour is in danger of becoming irrelevant.
Altogether, it shows why any idea that Ukip posed no threat to Labour or that they were a greater problem for the Conservatives was complacent and misguided. Nigel Farage has not only made good on his promise to park Ukip's tanks on Labour's lawn - he has driven them through the front door and crashed them into our living room.'
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/80672200 -
Hodges wont be looking too good either:TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what their final poll says.SouthamObserver said:If Corbyn does not win, YouGov is surely finished as a credible pollster. For all the stuff about snapshots at a moment in time. margins of error and samples etc, its polls have set the narrative for this election. If they turn out to be wrong, how will Kellner's explanations be heard above the derision?
Not that they are wrong, of course!
If it there is a late swing etc.
This weekend is the the first anniversary of that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead.
Just saying.
"At the end of next week, Corbyn will win the Labour leadership election"
(his latest blog)0 -
Uh oh, given his form during the last Labour leadership electionrottenborough said:
Hodges wont be looking too good either:TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on what their final poll says.SouthamObserver said:If Corbyn does not win, YouGov is surely finished as a credible pollster. For all the stuff about snapshots at a moment in time. margins of error and samples etc, its polls have set the narrative for this election. If they turn out to be wrong, how will Kellner's explanations be heard above the derision?
Not that they are wrong, of course!
If it there is a late swing etc.
This weekend is the the first anniversary of that YouGov poll that had Yes ahead.
Just saying.
"At the end of next week, Corbyn will win the Labour leadership election"
(his latest blog)
David Miliband has won, says Dan Hodges.
http://bit.ly/1NK6bmd0 -
Labour chief whip Rosie Winterton claims that Corbyn will be defenestrated within 6 months according to party grandees involved in the pre-coup. And told worried MPs *not to worry*. Let's see. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4543699.ece
EDIT Ms Sylvester has also stated that the membership has changed totally since it elected EdM - only 10% remain from GE2010. That's feels a bit OTT to me - but if accurate, that's a complete takeover.0 -
What was Hodges bet with OGH and who won?0
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Yes will be seeking to present itself as alternativeless. No needs a clear strategy for dealing with that. Right now it doesn't look close to that.
Considering how long and how many people have been baying at the moon of the EU, the lack of preparation on the No side shown so far seems extraordinary.0 -
Mr. Antifrank, it may well be equivalent to the SNP's failure to answer the currency question.
Still, we'll see how the campaign goes. Still expect In to win with ease.0 -
Oh, and UKIP's refusal to work with existing No groups shows that for UKIP party political advantage is more important than leaving the EU. That's been obvious for some time but it's nice to have it formally confirmed.0
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Footnote to my last post: Nigel Farage offered to work with Yes2AV and was spurned. That was led by far less congenial (to him) political types than the Out camp will be.0
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I think I'll have to a thread comparing UKIP and the other No groups to the People's Front for Judea and the Judean People's Frontantifrank said:Oh, and UKIP's refusal to work with existing No groups shows that for UKIP party political advantage is more important than leaving the EU. That's been obvious for some time but it's nice to have it formally confirmed.
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UKIP's decision I think again confirms its status as a Fuhrerpartei dedicated to the promotion of Farage's ego rather than leaving the EU. Not sure that is necessarily a bad thing for NO campaign though - it all depends on how that is structured. Farage would have been a bad leader for it, also because he is too divisive with the voters.0
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If Labour are going to replace Corbyn they have to come up with an alternative.
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Isam
"Nigel Farage has not only made good on his promise to park Ukip's tanks on Labour's lawn - he has driven them through the front door and crashed them into our living room.'"
...So a shame to hear him soiling himself on radio 4 this morning. I thought Cameron's attitude towards those escaping the turmoil of the Middle East was pretty shocking so I shouldn't be surprised that farage has trumped him decisively.
The Daily Mail is stil castigated in some quarters for things they said about Jewish refugees in the late 30's so it's surprising that today's political leaders seem so careless about how history will judge them0 -
The wind going out of the sails of the No campaign has been one of the striking features of politics this year.antifrank said:Yes will be seeking to present itself as alternativeless. No needs a clear strategy for dealing with that. Right now it doesn't look close to that.
Considering how long and how many people have been baying at the moon of the EU, the lack of preparation on the No side shown so far seems extraordinary.
My working theory is that the EU is a rallying cry of right wing opposition politics. Now that the right has finally won power, the EU no longer has that purpose and the campaign has lost energy and urgency.
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Mr. Jonathan, perhaps there's some truth in that but I don't think it's the whole story.
The problem is that lots say "The EU is bad because X, Y and Z", which is fine, but then don't seem to have a coherent alternative. That may or may not be a fair reflection of reality, but I think that's how it comes across, which leads those who might switch to perhaps think it's better the devil you know.0 -
To be fair to OUT/UKIP, very few people were expecting a Tory Majority, and if there was going to be a continuity coalition/minority Tory Government, they expected Dave would give up the Referendum in the coalition agreement/wouldn't have the votes to pass the legislation in the Commons.Jonathan said:
The wind going out of the sails of the No campaign has been one of the striking features of politics this year.antifrank said:Yes will be seeking to present itself as alternativeless. No needs a clear strategy for dealing with that. Right now it doesn't look close to that.
Considering how long and how many people have been baying at the moon of the EU, the lack of preparation on the No side shown so far seems extraordinary.
My working theory is that the EU is a rallying cry of right wing opposition politics. Now that the right has finally won power, the EU no longer has that purpose and the campaign has lost energy and urgency.0 -
Mr. Eagles, yes, but UKIP's raison d'etre is for the UK to leave the EU.
It's as bad as the SNP not having a considered currency position.0 -
See in Telegraph's vodoo poll, support for JC is 60%, LK is 25%; YC is 10% and AB 5%.0
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I feared this would happened when Farage un-resigned; a typical response from the egocentric and derisive figure who refuses to accept he has taken the party as far as he can.antifrank said:Oh, and UKIP's refusal to work with existing No groups shows that for UKIP party political advantage is more important than leaving the EU. That's been obvious for some time but it's nice to have it formally confirmed.
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Harsh on the SNP, they did have a considered currency position, it just happened to be utter bollocksMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, yes, but UKIP's raison d'etre is for the UK to leave the EU.
It's as bad as the SNP not having a considered currency position.0 -
Our politicians seem incapable of keeping anything confidential.TheScreamingEagles said:Apologies to go off topic but Clinton's emails have a UK flavour to them now
New Hillary Clinton emails reveal David Miliband's heartache at leadership loss
Emails from former US secretary of state’s private server shows backing for Miliband as foreign secretary over ‘disingenuous’ Hague and ‘mad’ Mandelson
http://bit.ly/1KZwwGV0 -
"There was an unsourced report at the start of last week that 40% of the selectorate then had not voted"
Of course not all of the selectorate will vote: for instance turnout was about 56% in the recent Lib Dem leadership election and about 66% in the 2005 Tory leadership election. And those were all-members; makes one wonder why people would bother being members if they couldn't be bothered to vote in a leadership election.0 -
People forgetting to cancel the DD lol.JSpring said:"There was an unsourced report at the start of last week that 40% of the selectorate then had not voted"
Of course not all of the selectorate will vote: for instance turnout was about 56% in the recent Lib Dem leadership election and about 66% in the 2005 Tory leadership election. And those were all-members; makes one wonder why people would bother being members if they couldn't be bothered to vote in a leadership election.0 -
Quite a good protest. Haven't voted yet.JSpring said:"There was an unsourced report at the start of last week that 40% of the selectorate then had not voted"
Of course not all of the selectorate will vote: for instance turnout was about 56% in the recent Lib Dem leadership election and about 66% in the 2005 Tory leadership election. And those were all-members; makes one wonder why people would bother being members if they couldn't be bothered to vote in a leadership election.0 -
I'm not sure that there isn't a love for the EU amongst many. Some friends of mine are very pro-EU, and one in particular is exceptionally so: she's almost an inverse-Farage, in that every time she opens her mouth on the topic she tends to do more harm than good!JosiasJessop said:
In many respects it is more the 'Yes' campaign that need some positivity. There isn't. in my view, a groundswell of love for the EU even among those voting yes, I think it is much more a pragmatic vote, fear over loss of jobs, better the devil you know and so on.GibTom said:On another point, the 'No' side need positive voices. Farage is all about negativity.
The two campaigns will need to move on from simply adding or subtracting the word 'necessary' from the sentence "the EU is a necessary evil".
There are quite a lot of people who are pro EU. It is why Yes is leading in the polls. Of course there is some grumbling too - after all which area of government is not grumbled about?
BOOers can be very shrill to the point of harming their own campaign, and a fair number of people will keep quiet, then vote to annoy the Farages of this world. As the Nats found out last year being noisy is not the same as winning a majority.
On betfair leaving is trading at 4.8; good value if you really think that No can win...0 -
I don't think Labour supporters want to be reminded of Ed Miliband. Reading that email just brings it all back. labour deserve all they're about to get. Who in their right mind could have thought Ed could be leader? He makes Iago look like Pope material0
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I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?0
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Odd report. In the two very different CLPs that I know well (Broxtowe and Islington North) the membership is up by 50% or so since 2010, but that leaves two thirds as veterans. Contrary to what one might think (or wish) the new members aren't being especially active - there are a few at each meeting, cautiously saying er I'm new, how does this work, rather than stomping in demanding this or that. My concern would not be that they're sweeping in to take over but more that they'll feel they've done their bit by joining and won't do the hard work. We'll see.Plato said:Labour chief whip Rosie Winterton claims that Corbyn will be defenestrated within 6 months according to party grandees involved in the pre-coup. And told worried MPs *not to worry*. Let's see. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4543699.ece
EDIT Ms Sylvester has also stated that the membership has changed totally since it elected EdM - only 10% remain from GE2010. That's feels a bit OTT to me - but if accurate, that's a complete takeover.
As for the supposed coup, you'd think a chief whip (even a presumably outgoing one) should know, but the MPs who I know are in "ruthless pragmatism" mood. If Corbyn proves reasonably successful, fine. If he doesn't, act. Almost nobody wants instant rebellion against the vote of the membership, whatever it is.0 -
Mr. Palmer, I remain to be convinced the PLP knows how to do 'ruthless pragmatism'. They kept Brown when he had a poll with Labour on 19%. They kept Ed Miliband.0
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Well you would have thought that you would have known that there was no plot against Gordon Brown.NickPalmer said:
Odd report. In the two very different CLPs that I know well (Broxtowe and Islington North) the membership is up by 50% or so since 2010, but that leaves two thirds as veterans. Contrary to what one might think (or wish) the new members aren't being especially active - there are a few at each meeting, cautiously saying er I'm new, how does this work, rather than stomping in demanding this or that. My concern would not be that they're sweeping in to take over but more that they'll feel they've done their bit by joining and won't do the hard work. We'll see.Plato said:Labour chief whip Rosie Winterton claims that Corbyn will be defenestrated within 6 months according to party grandees involved in the pre-coup. And told worried MPs *not to worry*. Let's see. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4543699.ece
EDIT Ms Sylvester has also stated that the membership has changed totally since it elected EdM - only 10% remain from GE2010. That's feels a bit OTT to me - but if accurate, that's a complete takeover.
As for the supposed coup, you'd think a chief whip (even a presumably outgoing one) should know, but the MPs who I know are in "ruthless pragmatism" mood. If Corbyn proves reasonably successful, fine. If he doesn't, act. Almost nobody wants instant rebellion against the vote of the membership, whatever it is.
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I don't think there's a renegotiation of any sort taking place.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
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The social and work protections are a very important factor for many. It is why Labour and the Trade Unions have shifted sides in the debate.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
The No campaign will be associated with rapracious expoloitative employers slavering over the possibility of shedding employment protections. Not a good look.0 -
I didn't vote for Corbyn, as I felt it would be dishonest, but I think the Tories would be more reacting to the unions, rather than Labour.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
Still, I don't believe it's true. I think it is expectations playing so they can then turn around and say "look how much more we achieved than expected!"
I mainly think this because if Cameron has given up even negotiating such a small issue then the renegotiation is doomed. If this isn't possible, what else can he get? A couple years delay for immigrant benefits (excluding healthcare) and a non-binding piece of paper saying something meaningless about ever closer union?0 -
I'm not sure that's quite right. But it's a renegotiation with the ambition of securing a clear Yes vote rather than a renegotiation from first principles.Sean_F said:
I don't think there's a renegotiation of any sort taking place.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
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People will vote No for a variety of reasons, So, I don't see separate campaigns as being a bad thing.runnymede said:UKIP's decision I think again confirms its status as a Fuhrerpartei dedicated to the promotion of Farage's ego rather than leaving the EU. Not sure that is necessarily a bad thing for NO campaign though - it all depends on how that is structured. Farage would have been a bad leader for it, also because he is too divisive with the voters.
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It seems to be that our government requests minor concessions from other EU governments and is told to get lost.antifrank said:
I'm not sure that's quite right. But it's a renegotiation with the ambition of securing a clear Yes vote rather than a renegotiation from first principles.Sean_F said:
I don't think there's a renegotiation of any sort taking place.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
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hmmmantifrank said:Oh, and UKIP's refusal to work with existing No groups shows that for UKIP party political advantage is more important than leaving the EU. That's been obvious for some time but it's nice to have it formally confirmed.
strikes me that's more UKIP party disadvantage ie nobody wants to work with Farage.0 -
For what it's worth, from my perspective the No campaign is getting up and running while the Yes campaign hasn't done anything yet. I think you're making the mistake of looking at the top of the Conservative party as being what's really going in on the right. Among my friends in the Conservative party, the EU referendum has been the most talked about story other than Corbynmania. And among those who are changing positions, it is from In to Out. I don't know anyone that has gone the other way. However, a lot of us are waiting to see the outcome of the renegotiation.Jonathan said:
The wind going out of the sails of the No campaign has been one of the striking features of politics this year.antifrank said:Yes will be seeking to present itself as alternativeless. No needs a clear strategy for dealing with that. Right now it doesn't look close to that.
Considering how long and how many people have been baying at the moon of the EU, the lack of preparation on the No side shown so far seems extraordinary.
My working theory is that the EU is a rallying cry of right wing opposition politics. Now that the right has finally won power, the EU no longer has that purpose and the campaign has lost energy and urgency.0 -
Tbh I didn't really expect anything else from Cameron.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
Dan Hanan has written a few pieces on how limp wristed the 'renogotition strategy' is.
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No will be asked to describe the world after a no vote. If there is no coordinated campaign and no agreed position for what happens next, wavering voters will hear 24 different stories about how we will operate outside the EU and sensibly decide to stick with the status quo.Sean_F said:
People will vote No for a variety of reasons, So, I don't see separate campaigns as being a bad thing.runnymede said:UKIP's decision I think again confirms its status as a Fuhrerpartei dedicated to the promotion of Farage's ego rather than leaving the EU. Not sure that is necessarily a bad thing for NO campaign though - it all depends on how that is structured. Farage would have been a bad leader for it, also because he is too divisive with the voters.
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What do you think will be renegotiated?antifrank said:
I'm not sure that's quite right. But it's a renegotiation with the ambition of securing a clear Yes vote rather than a renegotiation from first principles.Sean_F said:
I don't think there's a renegotiation of any sort taking place.antifrank said:I wonder how many of the Tory supporters who signed up for their £3 vote for Jeremy Corbyn are this morning feeling outraged that David Cameron has dropped any attempt to renegotiate the social chapter in order to keep a Corbyn-led Labour party on board for an In vote in the EU referendum?
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