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SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited July 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Private polling points to Corbyn victory in Labour’s leadership race

Private polling seen by New Statesman points to big win by Corbyn. http://t.co/pEhTmJ8fGF pic.twitter.com/oEDQFEvVy9

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    edited July 2015
    Lol and breath.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    Titters....
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    FRIEND

    http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Friend_4cc29b_979214.jpg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    Right. It only says Corbyn winning the first round.

    What about the final result?

    Remember this election is conducted under the greatest voting system of them all, AV
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Burnham 1.96 / 1.99
    Cooper 3.7 / 3.75
    Corbyn 6.2 / 8.6
    Kendall 9.4 / 10

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.103946886
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    ROFL

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    All private polling should of course be taken with a large pinch of salt, but still :lol::lol::lol:
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,335
    I will have to take the laptop in for repair - coffee ingestion keyboard fault.

    POLWAS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,704
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right. It only says Corbyn winning the first round.

    What about the final result?

    Remember this election is conducted under the greatest voting system of them all, AV

    Thankfully our great sage TSE, knowledgable in all things AV, will explain it to us. Everyone, gather round....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    900 to 1 I passed up. What a flippin' fool I am.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Doesn't surprise me. He can be articulate (unless he is on channel 4). He has union backing. And for some reason he has managed to position himself as the change candidate. They love him at my local CLP.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    Lest we forget, private polling had Yes winning the Indyref
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right. It only says Corbyn winning the first round.

    What about the final result?

    Remember this election is conducted under the greatest voting system of them all, AV

    But, if he leads by a large margin, it will be hard to overhaul him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,366
    Just maybe that vote that Mike told us about on the last thread might actually matter after all. Labour seem determined to self destruct.

    Is it possible that one or more of the candidates might withdraw to support a "stop Corbyn" candidate?

    Oh they are funny.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    edited July 2015
    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Huge pinch of salt due to "Private Polling" (see indyref)
    But...

    ...Bwahahahahahahahaha
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FPT:
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    None of these things are in the gift of the Out campaign. They can (at best) say what they would like to happen,

    Well, that would be a start. On my very first point, at the moment we have two diametrically opposed lines from the Out side:

    - We want to join the EEA
    - We want control over EU immigration.

    Well, you can have one, or the other, but you can't have both. Which would you like?
    Your continued attempts to imply that you are on the fence about the EuRef are passing farcical, it would seem plain to just about anyone reading that you are a committed Cameron and like your glorious leader you "will not countenance leaving the EU". Also like your leader you try and take the public (and us) for fools by pretending your mind isn't made up, and that it is all to play for.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    All that union backing and Tories4Corbyn ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    DavidL said:


    Is it possible that one or more of the candidates might withdraw to support a "stop Corbyn" candidate?

    AV kind-of makes that move redundant.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy...
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited July 2015
    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDSN1F72QU4
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    edited July 2015
    When is the vote again?

    On another note, 10th Mirror journo nicked for phone hacking.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    FPT
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Not everything is a conspiracy, and people really shouldn't get het up about Telegraph articles based on speculation. The EU is not trying to renege on the agreement with the UK on the EFSM loan. What they are trying to do is find some funds in the short-term, and the EFSM has some.

    Hilarious stuff. The EFSM guarantees the money advanced against the EU budget, for which we are liable on a pro rata basis. Cameron frequently claimed to the House of Commons without any qualification or proviso he had secured an opt out from this measure. Yet it is clear that notwithstanding his assurances, it can still be used in the same way it was to bail out Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Incidentally, if the eurozone countries are prepared to insure our contribution (for which there is no provision in the treaties), why are they not prepared to raise the bridging finance by way of bilateral loans to Greece?

    We have only Cameron to blame for the accrual of this liability to lend to an insolvent, but let's not pretend that the EU institutions have not reneged on a political agreement.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,505
    When I was a child I almost laughed myself unconscious watching Jasper Carrot* on television — I could barely breathe and was literally rolling around on the floor, and it took ages for me to regain my composure — if Corbyn is elected Labour leader I may repeat that.

    * Don't sneer I thought he was extremely funny when I was young.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    edited July 2015
    Wouldn't it be funny if Corbyn won the leadership after only scraping in to the contest because some MPs were "leant" to him to get a nomination?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Indigo said:

    Your continued attempts to imply that you are on the fence about the EuRef are passing farcical, it would seem plain to just about anyone reading that you are a committed Cameron and like your glorious leader you "will not countenance leaving the EU". Also like your leader you try and take the public (and us) for fools by pretending your mind isn't made up, and that it is all to play for.

    Yeah yeah, just keep the mindless insults coming. That will really help your case.

    Alternatively, have you considered answering the question? It's a rather vital one, given that the principal motivator of many, perhaps most, of the potential Out voters is immigration. They are not being sold a lie, are they?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    A lot of people agree with Corbyn's politics, and want a full-blooded left wing party in this country. I don't it's a sufficiently large number to win an election, but it's probably c.30% or so of the voters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    Corbyn is one year younger than Foot was when he became leader in 1980.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    DaemonBarber said:

    JWisemann said:

    logical_song said:

    Osborne's dividends raid valued upwards of £6bn
    "The accountancy firm believes that the dividend tax hike – an effective 7.5% increase in rates – will end up “discouraging entrepreneurial activity and enterprise”, reported City AM."

    Do the Tories want to encourage small businesses and entrepreneurs?

    http://www.contractoruk.com/news/0012122osbornes_dividends_raid_valued_upwards_6bn.html?utm_source=NL&utm_medium=News&utm_campaign=ConNews

    As a self employed small businessman I'm absolutely furious about this - the lower tax was surely a quid pro quo for the lack of security / other perks of permanent employment. This government cares about no one but big business. Imagine if they'd said before the election they were going to give most small business people a 7.5% tax hike. They'd have been annihilated.
    As an IT contractor operating under a Ltd Co, I'm unperturbed over the dividend tax changes.
    I take a small salary and larger dividends currently, how that will change in the future I'm not yet certain. One thing is clear to me though, something like this has been on the cards for ages. Rightly or wrongly, it is seen as a dodge by many and it is quite hard to counter the arguments. I see your point about the quid-pro-quo for the lack of employment related perks and securities, but where we lose on the swings we gain on the roundabouts.

    The changes that to concern me are the travel and subsistence related changes which could force some small consultancies out of business. Oh, and the as yet detail-less review of IR35.
    The travel and subsistence related changes seem like a sledgehammer to solve a scalpel issue. I'm sure there must be people abusing "business expenses" as a contractor to evade tax but that's already covered with tax evasion legislation rather than yanking the whole concept.

    Just seems wrong.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited July 2015
    If Corbyn does win there is a sort of reflective symmetry around Blair in the Labour leadership.

    Blair

    ^ Smith | \/ Brown
    ^ Kinnock | \/ Milliband
    ^ Foot | \/ Corbyn

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Reading the article looks like Labour might have EdM to thank for this - it suggests many of the right-wing supporters may have left the party in the last few years. Deliciously funny if true:)

    Farron i/c the LDs is certainly a joke but this would be a veritable lifetime of laughs. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in No10 and 11 right now.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    If Corbyn does win there is a sort of reflective symmetry around Blair in the Labour leadership.

    Blair

    ^ Smith | \/ Brown
    ^ Kinnock | \/ Milliband
    ^ Foot | \/ Corbyn

    True, that's rather appealing aesthetically.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    @MSmithsonPB: Maybe a Corbyn led LAB will provide the foundation for Lib Dem recovery.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right. It only says Corbyn winning the first round.

    What about the final result?

    Remember this election is conducted under the greatest voting system of them all, AV

    Thankfully our great sage TSE, knowledgable in all things AV, will explain it to us. Everyone, gather round....
    You can see why Labour aren't using FPTP.
    Also, does Corbyn have a donkey jacket?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    DaemonBarber said:

    JWisemann said:

    logical_song said:

    Osborne's dividends raid valued upwards of £6bn
    "The accountancy firm believes that the dividend tax hike – an effective 7.5% increase in rates – will end up “discouraging entrepreneurial activity and enterprise”, reported City AM."

    Do the Tories want to encourage small businesses and entrepreneurs?

    http://www.contractoruk.com/news/0012122osbornes_dividends_raid_valued_upwards_6bn.html?utm_source=NL&utm_medium=News&utm_campaign=ConNews

    As a self employed small businessman I'm absolutely furious about this - the lower tax was surely a quid pro quo for the lack of security / other perks of permanent employment. This government cares about no one but big business. Imagine if they'd said before the election they were going to give most small business people a 7.5% tax hike. They'd have been annihilated.
    As an IT contractor operating under a Ltd Co, I'm unperturbed over the dividend tax changes.
    I take a small salary and larger dividends currently, how that will change in the future I'm not yet certain. One thing is clear to me though, something like this has been on the cards for ages. Rightly or wrongly, it is seen as a dodge by many and it is quite hard to counter the arguments. I see your point about the quid-pro-quo for the lack of employment related perks and securities, but where we lose on the swings we gain on the roundabouts.

    The changes that to concern me are the travel and subsistence related changes which could force some small consultancies out of business. Oh, and the as yet detail-less review of IR35.
    The travel and subsistence related changes seem like a sledgehammer to solve a scalpel issue. I'm sure there must be people abusing "business expenses" as a contractor to evade tax but that's already covered with tax evasion legislation rather than yanking the whole concept.

    Just seems wrong.
    IR35 is another bloody Brown mess and talk of a "review" gives plenty of contractors sleepless nights.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    glw said:

    When I was a child I almost laughed myself unconscious watching Jasper Carrot* on television — I could barely breathe and was literally rolling around on the floor, and it took ages for me to regain my composure — if Corbyn is elected Labour leader I may repeat that.

    * Don't sneer I thought he was extremely funny when I was young.

    I went to see Carrot live in Birmingham some years ago ( I was in 6th form college I think). Still the funniest live comedy show I've ever been to.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    I reckon a Tory leadership election in 2017/18 will have around 330 entrants as every Tory MP will feel confident in thrashing a Corbyn led Labour Party at the General Election.

    Dave might decide to not quit after all.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    edited July 2015
    Sean_F said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    A lot of people agree with Corbyn's politics, and want a full-blooded left wing party in this country. I don't it's a sufficiently large number to win an election, but it's probably c.30% or so of the voters.
    I agree. Would it be so bad if he won?

    What need is there for a Labour party led by one of the other three when you have a Conservative party that is no different anyway?

    We need a choice between parties that are actually different not between the same party with different colour badges. All you end up with then is partisan squabbling over minute details.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,187
    Sean_F said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    A lot of people agree with Corbyn's politics, and want a full-blooded left wing party in this country. I don't it's a sufficiently large number to win an election, but it's probably c.30% or so of the voters.
    25%
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    #Horsham4Corbyn?

    Well that's something I didn't expect to ever type.
    Jonathan said:

    Doesn't surprise me. He can be articulate (unless he is on channel 4). He has union backing. And for some reason he has managed to position himself as the change candidate. They love him at my local CLP.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Ha ha ha. There would be a positive from Corbyn winning: the left wing would be galvanised for the duration of the parliament, and might prove an effect active force for (a) change. He is unelectable, of course, but perhaps the party would spot that by 2019, sack him and get someone popular in who creates a bandwagon towards the election. So, happy days.

    Or, more likely, Cameron and Murdoch will tear Labour to shreds.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Indigo said:

    Your continued attempts to imply that you are on the fence about the EuRef are passing farcical, it would seem plain to just about anyone reading that you are a committed Cameron and like your glorious leader you "will not countenance leaving the EU". Also like your leader you try and take the public (and us) for fools by pretending your mind isn't made up, and that it is all to play for.

    Yeah yeah, just keep the mindless insults coming. That will really help your case.

    Alternatively, have you considered answering the question? It's a rather vital one, given that the principal motivator of many, perhaps most, of the potential Out voters is immigration. They are not being sold a lie, are they?
    Speaking personally, I would favour immigration controls on EU nationals. But, I'm happy to make common cause with people like Robert Smithson who want continued free movement.

    To me, this vote is a straightforward vote of no confidence in the current set up. Perhaps Cameron can bring back a sufficiently good deal that would make me change my mind, but I think it's very unlikely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    On the other hand: a lot of Labour members (here and elsewhere) seem to be saying they'll put Corbyn first to make a statement, but effectively on the understanding that he won't actually win. Maybe that will change if it looks as though he might win.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,187
    Curiously enough, I'm still laughing at this. Oh, what larks!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'd love to know how many CDSs on Greek debt there are out there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,366
    edmundintokyo said:

    DavidL said:


    Is it possible that one or more of the candidates might withdraw to support a "stop Corbyn" candidate?

    AV kind-of makes that move redundant.
    I am not sure about that. The problem at the moment is that there is no clear leader for the sane wing of the party (stretching a point a little quoad Burnham) so votes are going all over the place. There is no guarantee that they will all come back together again even with AV.

    One thing is for sure, only an idiot is now going to give a token first round vote to Corbyn before selecting a "serious" candidate. The dangers of gestures.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Plato said:

    #Horsham4Corbyn?
    Well that's something I didn't expect to ever type.

    They endorsed him. They're rather left wing at the moment.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sean_F said:

    To me, this vote is a straightforward vote of no confidence in the current set up. Perhaps Cameron can bring back a sufficiently good deal that would make me change my mind, but I think it's very unlikely.

    I don't see how you can have a vote of no confidence without evaluating the alternative. This is a vote with very substantial and irreversible consequences, not an opinion poll.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    To me, this vote is a straightforward vote of no confidence in the current set up. Perhaps Cameron can bring back a sufficiently good deal that would make me change my mind, but I think it's very unlikely.

    I don't see how you can have a vote of no confidence without evaluating the alternative. This is a vote with very substantial and irreversible consequences, not an opinion poll.
    After a No vote, we would have years of negotiation ahead of us, before we left the EU. So, I'm happy for the details to be ironed out during that process.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Before any Tories gloat. Three letters: I, D and S. All parties have their moments, maybe this is Labour's.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I'm not sure being seen as the favourite, this far ahead of the vote, is actually helpful for Mr Corbyn.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Jonathan said:

    Before any Tories gloat. Three letters: I, D and S. All parties have their moments, maybe this is Labour's.

    IDS was nowhere near as right wing as Corbyn is left wing.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This poll may or may not be accurate in detail. It is unlikely to be wrong in the broad outline of showing a substantial body of support for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Once again, Liz Kendall looks dead in the water. By what means could she finish top now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,857
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    All that union backing and Tories4Corbyn ?

    Coalition of the Willing.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,722
    edited July 2015
    antifrank said:

    This poll may or may not be accurate in detail. It is unlikely to be wrong in the broad outline of showing a substantial body of support for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Once again, Liz Kendall looks dead in the water. By what means could she finish top now?

    Polling that shows her as the labour candidate most appealing to floating/marginal voters?
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    To me, this vote is a straightforward vote of no confidence in the current set up. Perhaps Cameron can bring back a sufficiently good deal that would make me change my mind, but I think it's very unlikely.

    I don't see how you can have a vote of no confidence without evaluating the alternative. This is a vote with very substantial and irreversible consequences, not an opinion poll.
    After a No vote, we would have years of negotiation ahead of us, before we left the EU. So, I'm happy for the details to be ironed out during that process.
    Given the current status and dynamics of the EU, both EEA membership or a bilateral deal seem like superior options. I've never really thought before about which I liked better, because I always assumed I'd support staying in the EU. Today has really shaken my belief in that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Life_ina_market_town said:



    We have only Cameron to blame for the accrual of this liability to lend to an insolvent, but let's not pretend that the EU institutions have not reneged on a political agreement.

    I think your previous criticism of Cameron for expecting a political agreement to be sufficient is unfair. In the nature of international agreements, leaders have to be able to rely on the word of their counterparties.

    If not, then there is a fundamental breach of trust: Juncker's behaviour is pretty firmly tipping to scales towards Out for me (having previously probably been a marginal In).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sean_F said:

    After a No vote, we would have years of negotiation ahead of us, before we left the EU. So, I'm happy for the details to be ironed out during that process.

    The trouble is that the devil is in those details. In particular, people who vote Out because of immigration are quite likely to find themselves betrayed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,857
    With Corbyn leading the Labour Party, PMQ's would be must-see telly....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    antifrank said:

    This poll may or may not be accurate in detail. It is unlikely to be wrong in the broad outline of showing a substantial body of support for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Once again, Liz Kendall looks dead in the water. By what means could she finish top now?

    Are the electorate going to be particularly interested in that? They've betrayed few hints of that so far.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,764
    edited July 2015
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    A lot of people agree with Corbyn's politics, and want a full-blooded left wing party in this country. I don't it's a sufficiently large number to win an election, but it's probably c.30% or so of the voters.
    I agree. Would it be so bad if he won?

    What need is there for a Labour party led by one of the other three when you have a Conservative party that is no different anyway?

    We need a choice between parties that are actually different not between the same party with different colour badges. All you end up with then is partisan squabbling over minute details.

    Also I suppose that even if Labour do all the correct centrist moves the Tories can still tell centrist voters that they'll end up working with the SNP. If they're going to lose the centre whatever they do then maybe they're better making sure they hold on to the left...
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2015
    The Blairites only have themselves to blame for this. Their attitude at the beginning of the campaign claiming Labour had to surrender to the Tories on everything has provoked a furious backlash.

    Plus, the completely overdone fatalism about how impossible it would be for Labour to win the next election (ignoring the fact the Tories barely scraped a majority, and only got that when some super-reluctant voters only switched to them on election day itself), seems to have led some members to think "if we're going to lose, may as well do it on our terms".
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    Before any Tories gloat. Three letters: I, D and S. All parties have their moments, maybe this is Labour's.

    Andy Burnham is the equivalent of IDS. The Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn would be someone like Philip Hollobone.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Labour really hates itself if it elects Corbyn as leader. Nonetheless, how accurate is private polling (if I may ask)? I wondering whether to take this completely at face-value that Corbyn is actually in the lead, or whether it's simply indicative that is has substantial support in the party.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    * Don't sneer I thought he was extremely funny when I was young.

    Carrott on TV was brilliant (non-political) entertainment - btw, he's back on tour this year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,187
    Danny565 said:

    The Blairites only have themselves to blame for this. Their attitude at the beginning of the campaign claiming Labour had to surrender to the Tories on everything has provoked a furious backlash.

    Is that what this is about? Sticking it to the Blairites?

    If you prefer to fight your own internal battles of vengeance, rather than do what's necessary to unite and fight to win over the electorate, you will be in opposition for a very long time.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited July 2015
    I wonder if this 'leaked' private polling is actually a deliberate ploy by either the Burnham or Cooper camp?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/621320493115830272
    MarqueeMark said:

    With Corbyn leading the Labour Party, PMQ's would be must-see telly....

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    A lot of people agree with Corbyn's politics, and want a full-blooded left wing party in this country. I don't it's a sufficiently large number to win an election, but it's probably c.30% or so of the voters.
    I agree. Would it be so bad if he won?

    What need is there for a Labour party led by one of the other three when you have a Conservative party that is no different anyway?

    We need a choice between parties that are actually different not between the same party with different colour badges. All you end up with then is partisan squabbling over minute details.

    Trouble is Corbyn doesn't have a hope in hell of winning an election. While Labour would have a clear identity, how many voters would actually want to vote for a Corbyn-led party? Hell, I wouldn't vote Labour if Corbyn was leader. I'd probably end up spoiling my ballot.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited July 2015
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Before any Tories gloat. Three letters: I, D and S. All parties have their moments, maybe this is Labour's.

    Andy Burnham is the equivalent of IDS. The Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn would be someone like Philip Hollobone.
    Disagree.

    Burnham reminds me more of a mid rank Major minister like Stephen Dorrell.
    Corbyn is very much in the mould of IDS.

    Right now I'm hoping that Cooper turns out to be Labour's equivalent to Howard.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,857
    Greek activists calling for a boycott of German products. How many of them have got the cash for a new Porsche though?

    And they better hope that Germans don't reciprocate with a boycott of Greek sun-loungers....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,366
    Sean_F said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sean_F said:

    To me, this vote is a straightforward vote of no confidence in the current set up. Perhaps Cameron can bring back a sufficiently good deal that would make me change my mind, but I think it's very unlikely.

    I don't see how you can have a vote of no confidence without evaluating the alternative. This is a vote with very substantial and irreversible consequences, not an opinion poll.
    After a No vote, we would have years of negotiation ahead of us, before we left the EU. So, I'm happy for the details to be ironed out during that process.
    I think that is a loser strategy Sean, a strategy which is looking for a "respectable" vote which might make the EU think we almost mean it.

    If BOO really want to win they need to consolidate around an option, even if that option does not address every concern all the supporters of BOO have about the EU and then sell it as a positive vision that can be compared and contrasted with what Cameron has to offer.

    Of course the polling for Corbyn may well show that is rubbish and that gestures can unexpectedly win after all.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I wonder if this 'leaked' private polling is actually a deliberate ploy by either the Burnham or Cooper camp?

    Dya think ?!?!?

    Corbyn winning would be bad news for the Conservatives - as it would mean that Labour have hit rock bottom 5 years earlier than they will under Burham..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    MarqueeMark said:

    Greek activists calling for a boycott of German products. How many of them have got the cash for a new Porsche though?

    And they better hope that Germans don't reciprocate with a boycott of Greek sun-loungers....

    Certainly not all those doctors and dentists who only earn 12,000 euro a year...but their wife somehow has the money.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited July 2015
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Labour really hates itself if it elects Corbyn as leader. Nonetheless, how accurate is private polling (if I may ask)? I wondering whether to take this completely at face-value that Corbyn is actually in the lead, or whether it's simply indicative that is has substantial support in the party.

    Indeed - I wonder if Osbo/Cameron are up to their old tricks with the timing of today's news of the trade union crackdown - which can only be further good news for Corbyn. At least I'm on him at 80/1.
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Charles said:

    I think your previous criticism of Cameron for expecting a political agreement to be sufficient is unfair. In the nature of international agreements, leaders have to be able to rely on the word of their counterparties.

    If not, then there is a fundamental breach of trust: Juncker's behaviour is pretty firmly tipping to scales towards Out for me (having previously probably been a marginal In).

    Cameron had a veto over the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism. He waived that veto for a political commitment that the EFSM would not be used again, when he could have obtained a legal guarantee to that effect. It is the difference between giving someone £100,000 on the faith of their word that they will return it with interest, and lending them the sum secured on their house. The EU is not merely an arrangement in international law. It has a law of its own, albeit one followed by some states more than others. It is hardly surprising that when push comes to shove, other member states will rely on their strict legal rights.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,505
    calum said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Labour really hates itself if it elects Corbyn as leader. Nonetheless, how accurate is private polling (if I may ask)? I wondering whether to take this completely at face-value that Corbyn is actually in the lead, or whether it's simply indicative that is has substantial support in the party.

    Indeed - I wonder if Osbo/Cameron are up to their old tricks with the timing of today's of the trade union crackdown - which can only be further good news for Corbyn. At least I'm on him at 80/1.
    Oh come on, that's an almost Mandelsonian level of deviousness, Osborne's not that clever.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    edited July 2015
    The_Apocalypse said:

    isam said:

    Sean_F said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I mentioned this before but this is one of the rare cases where it makes sense to be tactical under AV. (The voters won't.) If the first choices of everybody on the left go to somebody transfer-repellent, the right-wing candidate goes through to the run-off and proceeds to scoop up the centrist votes.

    That said, Corbyn could easily win this thing outright. The right-wing candidate is too right-wing for the base and the two in the middle aren't very good.

    A lot of people agree with Corbyn's politics, and want a full-blooded left wing party in this country. I don't it's a sufficiently large number to win an election, but it's probably c.30% or so of the voters.
    I agree. Would it be so bad if he won?

    What need is there for a Labour party led by one of the other three when you have a Conservative party that is no different anyway?

    We need a choice between parties that are actually different not between the same party with different colour badges. All you end up with then is partisan squabbling over minute details.

    Trouble is Corbyn doesn't have a hope in hell of winning an election. While Labour would have a clear identity, how many voters would actually want to vote for a Corbyn-led party? Hell, I wouldn't vote Labour if Corbyn was leader. I'd probably end up spoiling my ballot.
    Labour don't have anyone in the House of Commons who could win them an election. There isn't anyone better than Ed Miliband and look how he did.

    I think in the long run it is more important for a party to have something distinct to say rather than impersonating the opposition then exaggerating the minute differences.

    As a non Conservative or Labour supporter, I couldn't really care less who ran the country. Its only when you tie your colours to the mast that the minute differences seem important. Like rowing with a partner over whether to go to the Bombay Grill or Tandoori Nights. Neutral observers would say "who cares, take it in turns" And that's what we currently do with politics
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,187
    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    This poll may or may not be accurate in detail. It is unlikely to be wrong in the broad outline of showing a substantial body of support for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Once again, Liz Kendall looks dead in the water. By what means could she finish top now?

    Are the electorate going to be particularly interested in that? They've betrayed few hints of that so far.
    Talking to yourself is the first sign of Labour.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fire up the Mandy signal - I predict he will be on a tv quite soon..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    So this is how far Labour have fallen. The PB Tories have a clear open goal to poke fun at Labour and they would rather bang on about the EU.

    (Actually this is quite reminiscent of the 1990s, so perhaps it's not bad news after all :-) )

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    isam said:

    Labour don't have anyone in the House of Commons who could win them an election. There isn't anyone better than Ed Miliband and look how he did.

    I think in the long run it is more important for a party to have something distinct to say rather than impersonating the opposition then exaggerating the minute differences.

    As a non Conservative or Labour supporter, I couldn't really care less who ran the country. Its only when you tie your colours to the mast that the minute differences seem important. Like rowing with a partner over whether to go to the Bombay Grill or Tandoori Nights. Neutral observers would say "who cares, take it in turns" And that's what we currently do with politics

    Tbh, I'd say Burnham is marginally better than Miliband. Cooper could grow into the role. Kendall lacks experience. But even if a leader couldn't win Labour an election, at the very least they should make progress in regard to winning more seats. Then again, someone like Corbyn may go down well in Scotland....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited July 2015
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Before any Tories gloat. Three letters: I, D and S. All parties have their moments, maybe this is Labour's.

    Andy Burnham is the equivalent of IDS. The Tory equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn would be someone like Philip Hollobone.
    Lol - don't tell HYUFD - he'll only bring out that poll of the public yet again - the one that says Burnham is the one :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    edited July 2015
    Casino_Royale said:

    Danny565 said:

    The Blairites only have themselves to blame for this. Their attitude at the beginning of the campaign claiming Labour had to surrender to the Tories on everything has provoked a furious backlash.

    Is that what this is about? Sticking it to the Blairites?

    If you prefer to fight your own internal battles of vengeance, rather than do what's necessary to unite and fight to win over the electorate, you will be in opposition for a very long time.
    Corbyn would enthuse a lot of young people, Greens, Muslims, public sector workers, people in much of Greater London, core cities, Brighton & Hove, and Scotland. But, with the exception of the last of these, he'd only be adding to the Labour vote in areas that are already strong for Labour.

    Perhaps he could win back c.20 Scottish seats, Brighton Kemptown, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, but at the same time Labour would be losing seats like Harrow West, Halifax, Newcastle under Lyme, Bridgend, and slipping further back in places like Swindon and Plymouth.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,335
    re Carrott - Bastity Chelt, Football Match and Magic Roundabout always bring a smile.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Jonathan said:

    So this is how far Labour have fallen. The PB Tories have a clear open goal to poke fun at Labour and they would rather bang on about the EU.

    (Actually this is quite reminiscent of the 1990s, so perhaps it's not bad news after all :-) )

    You are correct - Labour are zero threat for now. None nil nada.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Jonathan said:

    So this is how far Labour have fallen. The PB Tories have a clear open goal to poke fun at Labour and they would rather bang on about the EU.

    There's no need to poke fun at Labour. They are doing a better job at it themselves than mere PB Tories could hope to do.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Another Mirror journalist arrested on hacking charges, how many does that make now?. – This one was recently head of news and worked on the Mirror's general election coverage.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33541265
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    We appear to be doing both at the same time - like walking and chewing gum :wink:

    PS Have you kept schtum that you're thinking of voting for someone other than Jezza at your CLP?
    Jonathan said:

    So this is how far Labour have fallen. The PB Tories have a clear open goal to poke fun at Labour and they would rather bang on about the EU.

    (Actually this is quite reminiscent of the 1990s, so perhaps it's not bad news after all :-) )

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,487
    SimonStClare said:

    Another Mirror journalist arrested on hacking charges, how many does that make now?. – This one was recently head of news and worked on the Mirror's general election coverage.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-33541265

    10
  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    The Trade Union Bill has now been published.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    So this is how far Labour have fallen. The PB Tories have a clear open goal to poke fun at Labour and they would rather bang on about the EU.

    (Actually this is quite reminiscent of the 1990s, so perhaps it's not bad news after all :-) )

    As someone who comes across as a relatively rightwing Labour supporter, would you feel comfortable staying in the Labour party if it were led by Jeremy Corbyn?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    The_Apocalypse said:

    isam said:

    Labour don't have anyone in the House of Commons who could win them an election. There isn't anyone better than Ed Miliband and look how he did.

    I think in the long run it is more important for a party to have something distinct to say rather than impersonating the opposition then exaggerating the minute differences.

    As a non Conservative or Labour supporter, I couldn't really care less who ran the country. Its only when you tie your colours to the mast that the minute differences seem important. Like rowing with a partner over whether to go to the Bombay Grill or Tandoori Nights. Neutral observers would say "who cares, take it in turns" And that's what we currently do with politics

    Tbh, I'd say Burnham is marginally better than Miliband. Cooper could grow into the role. Kendall lacks experience. But even if a leader couldn't win Labour an election, at the very least they should make progress in regard to winning more seats. Then again, someone like Corbyn may go down well in Scotland....
    He has a passion for a way of doing things that isn't just Tory-lite. I think Labour need someone who is confident and enthusiastic in making the case for socialism/immigration/trade unions without apology, and the other three cyberbots aren't going to do that

    Don't die wondering!
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Really hope that Corbyn wins, it would be great news for politics in this country.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I wonder how all those Labour MPs who don't agree with Corbyn but backed him so he could squeak onto the ballot would feel if he become their chairman.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited July 2015
    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/621265728222679040
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited July 2015
    felix said:

    Reading the article looks like Labour might have EdM to thank for this - it suggests many of the right-wing supporters may have left the party in the last few years. Deliciously funny if true:)
    Farron i/c the LDs is certainly a joke but this would be a veritable lifetime of laughs. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in No10 and 11 right now.

    If Tim Farron becomes leader of the Lib Dems, Felix, it will be fun to be campaigning as a Lib Dem again. The joke will be on you Tories.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    JICIPM!!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right. It only says Corbyn winning the first round.

    What about the final result?

    Remember this election is conducted under the CRAPPIEST voting system of them all, AV

    Corrected it for you! :lol:
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urb0dpHJX2w
    Danny565 said:

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/621265728222679040

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