politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The widespread assumption that Dave won’t lead CON into the
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Gideon better enjoy it while he can. I'm sure by mid-term things will be looking very different, as they almost always do.SandyRentool said:Here's something I didn't think I would ever say (and tim would shoot me for saying it) but I'm ever so slightly warming to George Osborne. Since the election he has come across more personable - I think the key is that he is happier and more relaxed. If he can deliver real benefits for the north of England, then good on him.
I think I'd better lie down now!0 -
You're misunderestimating the greatest political strategist of our time.rottenborough said:
Gideon better enjoy it while he can. I'm sure by mid-term things will be looking very different, as they almost always do.SandyRentool said:Here's something I didn't think I would ever say (and tim would shoot me for saying it) but I'm ever so slightly warming to George Osborne. Since the election he has come across more personable - I think the key is that he is happier and more relaxed. If he can deliver real benefits for the north of England, then good on him.
I think I'd better lie down now!
Osborne's a genius I'll have you know0 -
The 16/1 doesn't look like a value bet to me.0
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Polly Toynbee looks at what might have been if Labour were delivering the Queen's Speech:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/queens-speech-miliband
Nothing about owls, it seems, but badgers would have been happier.
I agree with her closing observations:
" Liz Kendall ditches the 50p top tax rate and wants a tougher family benefit cap. Yvette Cooper goes for cutting corporation tax, while Mary Creagh and Andy Burnham ditch the mansion tax as “the politics of envy”. Each wants an emblem to show they understand “aspiration” – but all those only back the aspirations of the rich. The winner should be whoever paints the most powerful image of the future, not the one who tramples hardest on Miliband’s Edstone."
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I couldn't commit to produce them regularly, I'm afraid. I do them as and when I have free time or the inspiration takes me.john_zims said:@antifrank
Thanks for yet another excellent article, these should be regular threads on PB.
I am in awe of how our host produces two or three threads a day. The sheer workrate is incredible.0 -
Whether Cameron decides to stand again in 2020 depends almost entirely on him achieving a decisive In result in EU ref and the polling showing he has a chance of another majority as well as the state of the economy being such to allow that possibility. If only a narrow In and Tory splits have started to emerge or an Out vote when he has recommended In he will be gone as he will if Labour have a better leader who has started to build a clear poll lead. Otherwise, having been Tory Leader for 15 years, the second longest post-war leader since Thatcher and PM for 10 years, as long as Blair, he will join SamCam on a beach in Mauritius0
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A key to improving our society is to understand why we have ended up with an underclass with no aspiration to become educated, get a decent job, and generally do something with their lives. Crack that, and Labour (or anyone else) can make a huge difference in tackling inequality, economic stagnation, criminality, the benefits bill and public health.antifrank said:Polly Toynbee looks at what might have been if Labour were delivering the Queen's Speech:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/queens-speech-miliband
Nothing about owls, it seems, but badgers would have been happier.
I agree with her closing observations:
" Liz Kendall ditches the 50p top tax rate and wants a tougher family benefit cap. Yvette Cooper goes for cutting corporation tax, while Mary Creagh and Andy Burnham ditch the mansion tax as “the politics of envy”. Each wants an emblem to show they understand “aspiration” – but all those only back the aspirations of the rich. The winner should be whoever paints the most powerful image of the future, not the one who tramples hardest on Miliband’s Edstone."
There has to be a more acceptable answer than compulsory sterilisation...0 -
@ChukaUmunna: Blog: Why @EmmaReynoldsMP @JReynoldsMP & @StephenTwigg and I are backing @Liz4Leader | http://t.co/WTdsqV45Kp @TheStaggers @NewStatesman0
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Antifrank says
"I am in awe of how our host produces two or three threads a day. The sheer workrate is incredible. "
Seconded. I think OGH is kinda unique there.
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@JGForsyth: Chuka’s entire leadership team backing Liz Kendall a big deal, shows she is now a credible candidate which should help her gain more support0
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@JGForsyth: To stop support bleeding to Yvette as the 'stop Burnham' option, Kendall needed to show that she can win—these endorsements help her do that
@tnewtondunn: Big #Labourleadership moment: @ChukaUmunna endorses @Liz4Leader, plus takes over his whole team too; E Reynolds, S Twigg and J Reynolds.0 -
Big endorsement for Liz.Scott_P said:@ChukaUmunna: Blog: Why @EmmaReynoldsMP @JReynoldsMP & @StephenTwigg and I are backing @Liz4Leader | http://t.co/WTdsqV45Kp @TheStaggers @NewStatesman
She's still a big gamble for Labour. But you think maybe they have to go all in - Burnham and Cooper are losing hands for sure.
And politicians, word of advice: you can't bluff the electorate. They've got all your tells sussed....0 -
Talk in the papers today about a possible Tory rebellion against a boundary review. Do you think the review will be dropped? Tories must be reasonably confident of victory without it. The process is protracted and expensive and it'd be shameful if we went through it all a second time and it was voted down again. The govt is in the tricky situation that they might not get a majority to kill the review (Labour might vote against them just in order to inflict a defeat) or to accept it...0
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A website like this is a very enterprising niche. However I think this thread is wide of the markToms said:Antifrank says
"I am in awe of how our host produces two or three threads a day. The sheer workrate is incredible. "
Seconded. I think OGH is kinda unique there.
Clearly some event may interfere but otherwise after 15years Cameron will be happy to go. The tories need to think carefully about his replacement. We must hope the choice is better than the one Labour are faced with.0 -
It's not immediately obvious to me that the Conservatives have much to gain from a boundary review. They worked the current system so efficiently this time round that all the previous bias to Labour appears to have been squeezed out of it. The familiarity of sticking with the current boundaries may well work in the Conservatives' favour, since they seem to have a deeper understanding of electoral dynamics at a constituency level than Labour, given the results last month.Dadge said:Talk in the papers today about a possible Tory rebellion against a boundary review. Do you think the review will be dropped? Tories must be reasonably confident of victory without it. The process is protracted and expensive and it'd be shameful if we went through it all a second time and it was voted down again. The govt is in the tricky situation that they might not get a majority to kill the review (Labour might vote against them just in order to inflict a defeat) or to accept it...
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According to this map the LD seats left are:
Ceredigion
Orkney and Shetland
Westmorland and Lonsdale (Southport will be the NW seat going)
One of Leeds NW/S Hallam, but not Norfolk North.
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From the Times articleantifrank said:
It's not immediately obvious to me that the Conservatives have much to gain from a boundary review. They worked the current system so efficiently this time round that all the previous bias to Labour appears to have been squeezed out of it. The familiarity of sticking with the current boundaries may well work in the Conservatives' favour, since they seem to have a deeper understanding of electoral dynamics at a constituency level than Labour, given the results last month.Dadge said:Talk in the papers today about a possible Tory rebellion against a boundary review. Do you think the review will be dropped? Tories must be reasonably confident of victory without it. The process is protracted and expensive and it'd be shameful if we went through it all a second time and it was voted down again. The govt is in the tricky situation that they might not get a majority to kill the review (Labour might vote against them just in order to inflict a defeat) or to accept it...
Before the last aborted boundary review, some Tories were given private assurances that there would be “no man left behind”. One said he had been told that he could replace a retiring MP, or be given a seat in the House of Lords.
More cynical colleagues say that no such consolation prizes will materialise, and Mr Cameron is facing warnings that he could lose a vote to approve the changes. “They will use all the tricks they can,” one Tory MP said. “They’ll say, ‘We will look after you.’ It’s all b******s.”0 -
The Tories would probably lose seats like Gower and Vale of Clwyd if the number of seats is reduced to 600. Wales actually has 10 seats more than it's entitled to at present. It should have 29 or 30 instead of 40.0
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Scotland has got itself 3 extra seats on a population basis I think with the reduction to 600 seats. The boundary changes will most likely favour the SNP the most I think on a proportional basis.0
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Hallam is the one the Times/Lewis Baston think will flip LabourPulpstar said:According to this map the LD seats left are:
Ceredigion
Orkney and Shetland
Westmorland and Lonsdale (Southport will be the NW seat going)
One of Leeds NW/S Hallam, but not Norfolk North.0 -
@Thescreamingeagles Tactical Clegg unwind from Conservative voters whilst the Labour vote holds up giving something like
Con 31 Lib Dem 28 Lab 36 ?0 -
Sorry but the boundary review needs to go through on a 3 line whip. They are now 15 years out of date and the cons as a party should benefit. There will be surely enough retirements at the election to sort out everyone with a seat that contains part of their old constituency.
Edit. @Pulpstar if true that the SNP could benefit from it, then this might help along the Scotland devo reforms if DC had an ally to hold off the rebels on his own side.0 -
I totally agree. Any MP who refuses seems to have misplaced their public service...Sandpit said:
Sorry but the boundary review needs to go through on a 3 line whip. They are now 15 years out of date and the cons as a party should benefit. There will be surely enough retirements at the election to sort out everyone with a seat that contains part of their old constituency.
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Maybe a good effort by the Tories will get the LibDems voting tactically? Big slab of votes to squeeze.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles Tactical Clegg unwind from Conservative voters whilst the Labour vote holds up giving something like
Con 31 Lib Dem 28 Lab 36 ?
Time for the dodgy bar charts and "LibDems: Losing Here!"0 -
Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!
SimonDanczuk: @LabourEoin Threatening to publish lies about me unless I back Burnham? I won't be bullied.0 -
I can't imagine Nick Clegg fighting Sheffield Hallam in 2020. (It seems entirely conceivable that his old chum David Cameron might find him something useful to do before then that necessitates a by-election.)
Without Nick Clegg I can't imagine the Lib Dems holding Sheffield Hallam. I'm not sure who wins it, but the Lib Dems don't.0 -
The fact that Labour is only losing 1 more seat than the Tories is supportive of the idea that the boundary changes to 600 are not worth the candle. The Tories should focus on equal sized constituencies instead where the gains are much more obvious.
The House of Commons is too large but it is not a particularly pressing problem. The reduction was a Cameron response to the expenses scandal. I think that need has passed. Let it be.0 -
If the constituency stays as it is, and Clegg isn't the candidate, Labour wins.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles Tactical Clegg unwind from Conservative voters whilst the Labour vote holds up giving something like
Con 31 Lib Dem 28 Lab 36 ?
The Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems are very pissed off with the Tories for destroying their party, they won't vote tactically for the Tory.0 -
@MarqueeMark The Conservatives could well win Hallam - it doesn't really feel like a Labour seat except Crookes and Stannington wards. Probably enough of a hardcore liberal element in places like Dore/Totley to allow Labour to win on ~ 35% vote share though.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.pl?seat=Sheffield Hallam
The ward breakdowns look a bit off to me, I'm struggling to believe Labour didn't win Crookes (Very studenty) and I doubt Labour reached 7300 votes in Fulwood, Dore and Totley (Rich England Middle England) combined.0 -
@josiasJessup
"I'm not sure I would describe it as Western cowardice: it is just that politicians currently see the risks (and particularly political risks) of heavy action against ISIS/L (within our capabilities) are greater than the risks of letting things continue."
The keywords there are "within our capabilities". Outside of the USA no Western nation has the capability to do anything that will be remotely effective. Its is not just a case of not having the will but also not having the means.0 -
Are there really that many dyed-in-the-sandals Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam? If so it must be the one place in Britain where they remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
If the constituency stays as it is, and Clegg isn't the candidate, Labour wins.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles Tactical Clegg unwind from Conservative voters whilst the Labour vote holds up giving something like
Con 31 Lib Dem 28 Lab 36 ?
The Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems are very pissed off with the Tories for destroying their party, they won't vote tactically for the Tory.0 -
Off topic but Polly remains on tremendous form:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/queens-speech-miliband0 -
Sheffield is a very left wing sort of place. Hallam is a very middle England sort of place. Dore and Totley will have quit alot of lefties that will never be able to bring themselves to vote Labour.antifrank said:
Are there really that many dyed-in-the-sandals Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam? If so it must be the one place in Britain where they remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
If the constituency stays as it is, and Clegg isn't the candidate, Labour wins.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles Tactical Clegg unwind from Conservative voters whilst the Labour vote holds up giving something like
Con 31 Lib Dem 28 Lab 36 ?
The Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems are very pissed off with the Tories for destroying their party, they won't vote tactically for the Tory.
Labour to win, but also Labour sub 40%. The anti-Lab vote will be very well split.0 -
On topic. Events, dear boy, events.
I imagine that DC would like to go at a time of his choosing before the election, probably conference 2018 to give his successor an opportunity to make their mark on the party and country.
Other alternatives are that he allows the party leadership to change while he remains PM until the 2020 election, or a black swan such as a major party split over the EU referendum either forces him out or forces an election. We could also end up in a war with ISlL or a metaphorical war with the EU that leads to calls for him to continue in office. He could also of course fall under a bus.
What is certain is that he will have been in the top job for 8 years, and as party leader for 13. All leaders seem to age remarkably while in office, for all that we criticise them it's undoubtedly a remarkably stressful position. He is deep down a family man and would prefer to retire to spend time with them while possibly allowing Sam to make something of her own career.0 -
I agree with you, all candidates were given 20 minute speeches at Conference in 2005 which helped identify the best candidate (Cameron). I'd do the same again, next time and always.OblitusSumMe said:
When the Labour leadership timetable was announced it was compared unfavourably with the 2005 Conservative leadership election, when the Party Conference was used as a sort of Grand Public Interview for the contenders. Perhaps the situation is different when you are choosing a leader in government, but I would think that would be a possibility.david_herdson said:
I agree. There are two obvious options:Casino_Royale said:I think in the same interview he said, "I wouldn't say enjoy", when asked if he enjoyed being Prime Minister. Instead he said it was an honour and privilege.
I sense he will want to spend more time with Samantha, who he clearly thinks the world of, and his children as soon as he feels his work his done.
I expect that to happen fairly late on in this parliament. Probably in the last 12 months of the parliament.
1. A Tory leadership election over the summer of 2019, with the new leader to be announced at the Party Conference in October.
2. Cameron standing down at the conference, with the leadership election running through to December.
Any later and it becomes difficult for the new man or woman to sufficiently make their stamp on the general election campaign without undue disruption. Also, either timetable would overshadow the other two conferences without obviously hijacking the news.
The other thing to consider is whether Cameron would go early enough that the new leader would get one Queen's Speech and one session of Parliament before the election - so departing in autumn 2018, rather than 2019. I know that Boris has been cited in the media as desiring that Cameron stands aside soon after the EU referendum, rather than soon before the general election.
A good candidate will find ways to make a mark, using Conference as a publicity stunt doesn't do that much but using it to help find the right candidate is brilliant.
If Cameron's replacement is chosen in that manner then they won't get a Queen's Speech which helps match Cameron's pledge to serve a full term.0 -
Regarding the boundary review, the Times' analysis doesn't take into account that the second part of individual registration is happening this year. Anyone who didn't match DWP records and didn't respond to letters asking them to register will be removed from the register in December.
Letters were sent last year to 5.5 million people who didn't automatically match. Now some of those will have since registered but I believe there are still quite a lot missing. Now some of those may have moved or died but others may have been fraudulent (cough, cough).
It seems likely to me that the names removed will be proportionately higher in urban areas, which would make the boundaries more favourable to the Tories.
The Tories have to get a review through come what may, whether that be for a 600 seat parliament, 650 seat parliament or something in between.0 -
Sheffield Hallam is one of the eight elite cadre of constituencies that elected Lib Dem MPs.antifrank said:
Are there really that many dyed-in-the-sandals Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam? If so it must be the one place in Britain where they remain.TheScreamingEagles said:
If the constituency stays as it is, and Clegg isn't the candidate, Labour wins.Pulpstar said:@Thescreamingeagles Tactical Clegg unwind from Conservative voters whilst the Labour vote holds up giving something like
Con 31 Lib Dem 28 Lab 36 ?
The Sheffield Hallam Lib Dems are very pissed off with the Tories for destroying their party, they won't vote tactically for the Tory.
Plenty of Sandal wearing mung bean munchers round here.0 -
Didn't know that - very interesting.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Regarding the boundary review, the Times' analysis doesn't take into account that the second part of individual registration is happening this year. Anyone who didn't match DWP records and didn't respond to letters asking them to register will be removed from the register in December.
Letters were sent last year to 5.5 million people who didn't automatically match. Now some of those will have since registered but I believe there are still quite a lot missing. Now some of those may have moved or died but others may have been fraudulent (cough, cough).
It seems likely to me that the names removed will be proportionately higher in urban areas, which would make the boundaries more favourable to the Tories.
The Tories have to get a review through come what may, whether that be for a 600 seat parliament, 650 seat parliament or something in between.0 -
Sturgeon complaining about spending cuts.
Oh diddums. Shame your side lost the election isn't it?0 -
Yep. The scale of what would need doing to tackle ISIS is greater than anything we alone have. It will require a multinational coalition. And we know how well that worked out last time ...HurstLlama said:@josiasJessup
"I'm not sure I would describe it as Western cowardice: it is just that politicians currently see the risks (and particularly political risks) of heavy action against ISIS/L (within our capabilities) are greater than the risks of letting things continue."
The keywords there are "within our capabilities". Outside of the USA no Western nation has the capability to do anything that will be remotely effective. Its is not just a case of not having the will but also not having the means.0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11623738/Death-to-the-Labour-Party.html
Andrew Roberts making the case that labour is now something of an anachronism.0 -
I love the top-rated comment in CiF:antifrank said:Polly Toynbee looks at what might have been if Labour were delivering the Queen's Speech:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/queens-speech-miliband
Nothing about owls, it seems, but badgers would have been happier.
I agree with her closing observations:
" Liz Kendall ditches the 50p top tax rate and wants a tougher family benefit cap. Yvette Cooper goes for cutting corporation tax, while Mary Creagh and Andy Burnham ditch the mansion tax as “the politics of envy”. Each wants an emblem to show they understand “aspiration” – but all those only back the aspirations of the rich. The winner should be whoever paints the most powerful image of the future, not the one who tramples hardest on Miliband’s Edstone."
"You forgot to mention:
- A large civil engineering project would be unveiled to re-pave Britain's streets with gold.
- A deficit reduction bill would give a Labour government the power to instantly erase the deficit by shutting his eyes tightly and making a wish.
- A bill would be introduced to decriminalise the act of setting fire to bankers.
- Ed Miliband would, by law, be on hand to comfort your poor, sainted mother on her deathbed.
- Following the lead of Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper, all cabinet ministers would be married off to one another in a Moonies-style mass wedding, in order to spread joy and goodwill amongst the people.
- New legislation would require all households to own at least one owl.
- A bill would ensure Polly Toynbee, Owen Jones and Aditya Chakrabortty referred to Labour's welfare cuts as "tough, but necessary" rather than "ideological", "divisive" or "driven by a desire to punish the poorest in society".
- Michael Gove would be banned by an act of parliament."0 -
PS. Excellent blogpost this morning antifrank. I really enjoyed it.0
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@TheScreamingEagles
I'd love to see the internal churn from the Hallam 2010 -> 2015 result, particularly the number of 2010 LDs voting for Clegg. No higher than 65% I suspect - could be as low as 50%.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
I love the top-rated comment in CiF:antifrank said:Polly Toynbee looks at what might have been if Labour were delivering the Queen's Speech:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/26/queens-speech-miliband
Nothing about owls, it seems, but badgers would have been happier.
I agree with her closing observations:
" Liz Kendall ditches the 50p top tax rate and wants a tougher family benefit cap. Yvette Cooper goes for cutting corporation tax, while Mary Creagh and Andy Burnham ditch the mansion tax as “the politics of envy”. Each wants an emblem to show they understand “aspiration” – but all those only back the aspirations of the rich. The winner should be whoever paints the most powerful image of the future, not the one who tramples hardest on Miliband’s Edstone."
"You forgot to mention:
- A large civil engineering project would be unveiled to re-pave Britain's streets with gold.
- A deficit reduction bill would give a Labour government the power to instantly erase the deficit by shutting his eyes tightly and making a wish.
- A bill would be introduced to decriminalise the act of setting fire to bankers.
- Ed Miliband would, by law, be on hand to comfort your poor, sainted mother on her deathbed.
- Following the lead of Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper, all cabinet ministers would be married off to one another in a Moonies-style mass wedding, in order to spread joy and goodwill amongst the people.
- New legislation would require all households to own at least one owl.
- A bill would ensure Polly Toynbee, Owen Jones and Aditya Chakrabortty referred to Labour's welfare cuts as "tough, but necessary" rather than "ideological", "divisive" or "driven by a desire to punish the poorest in society".
- Michael Gove would be banned by an act of parliament."0 -
MM Burnham led with Labour, LD, UKIP voters and more narrowly with Tories in ST's yougov. That may be name recognition and Kendall will be boosted by Umunna's backing but she will need to overturn those numbers by September0
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Taffys That would be the same Andrew Roberts who thought IDS was a great leader of the Tories and the Iraq War was a triumph0
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Aside from the incompetence of Hackney council http://www.cityam.com/215300/hackney-voting-issues-registration-problems-leave-least-100-residents-unable-vote-polls-open and an isolated incident involving a Lib Dem activist http://www.itv.com/news/central/2015-05-08/britains-most-tattooed-man-turned-away-from-polling-station/ I can't really find any widespread stuff on people being turned away from polls due to IVA this time.GarethoftheVale2 said:Regarding the boundary review, the Times' analysis doesn't take into account that the second part of individual registration is happening this year. Anyone who didn't match DWP records and didn't respond to letters asking them to register will be removed from the register in December.
Letters were sent last year to 5.5 million people who didn't automatically match. Now some of those will have since registered but I believe there are still quite a lot missing. Now some of those may have moved or died but others may have been fraudulent (cough, cough).
It seems likely to me that the names removed will be proportionately higher in urban areas, which would make the boundaries more favourable to the Tories.
The Tories have to get a review through come what may, whether that be for a 600 seat parliament, 650 seat parliament or something in between.
Broxtowe electorate for instance reduced by a couple of hundred, probably due to students only being registered at their home address or some such. The effect thus far seems to have been minimal.
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Edinburgh North and Leith electorate up almost 12,000 !0
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On ISIS the only way they will be beaten is by Sunni tribes turning against them, otherwise the main thing is to contain them0
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So today we have Chuka and team backing Kendall, and Len trying to threaten Burnham into going hard Left. There seem to be some fundamental differences here, could be an interesting couple of months for Labour as they choose their new leader.
If Mr Stafford resists Len, will we see a new candidate emerge with massive Union support behind them? Could be some value if we can work out who it might be, any ideas?0 -
Since Sturgeon is the highest paid politician in the UK, perhaps she could volunteer to return some of her ample salary to the public purse to help the needy. Actions speak louder than words, hen.Philip_Thompson said:Sturgeon complaining about spending cuts.
Oh diddums. Shame your side lost the election isn't it?0 -
I just so, so hope Labour keeps on listening to rich, trust-fund loony hypocrites like Polly Toynbee. She is, to paraphrase the Duke of Wellington, worth 40 seats; but not of course to her own side.0
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It doesn't show she's a credible candidate at all: she's Gerald Ford. She has no discernible positives, except that she isn't Richard Nixon and has not yet failed in post.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Chuka’s entire leadership team backing Liz Kendall a big deal, shows she is now a credible candidate which should help her gain more support
Frankly, any of the contenduhs will get taken apart. It's a matter of total indifference which of the various nobodies on offer wins. I still favour Butcher because he can spend five years failing to live down the Mid Staffs Massacre before experiencing his own. In 2020 he and the Labour Party will, in an electoral sense, find out what it is like to drink the water from your flower vase then die of starvation in the workhouse amid your own ordure.
Mr Bumble the Beadle for leader. 24 Hours To Save Labour's Filthy Workhouses. What can go wrong?
It is a structural flaw in the Labour Party that, because it is vehemently anti-merit and pro-quota, it always ends up with a PLP made up largely of identikit nodding dogs. Its women MPs are MPs because they're women, not because they're good. As a result, every Labour leader elected in the last 35 years has with only one exception been a laughable fourth-rate election-losing buffoon. Why would this trend stop?0 -
If he'd written that article about the Lib Dems, not Labour, I'd be wholeheartedly agreeing with him. At least Labour, as antifrank's post makes clear, has regional support. The Lib Dems don't. And it's regional support that matters for small parties under FPTP as the Greens, UKIP and the Lib Dems have just proved to their cost. But at least the Greens and UKIP have ideological reasons to exist, even if they'll never win anything much at Westminster. The Lib Dems don't.taffys said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11623738/Death-to-the-Labour-Party.html
Andrew Roberts making the case that labour is now something of an anachronism.0 -
That's really useful data, thanks. Of real use is the comparison that I've not seen anywhere else between 2005 and 2015. Bookmarked to revisit before the next election.Financier said:0 -
According to the December 2013 numbers, the average constituency sizes were as follows:Pulpstar said:Edinburgh North and Leith electorate up almost 12,000 !
UK 70985
England 72415
Scotland 68257
Wales 57431
Northern Ireland 67687
But average Scottish numbers may have gone up considerably since then. So rather than Scottish seats going down, it could be going up.0 -
He may no longer have a majority by 2019 and find his survival dependent on Confidence & Supply from various Unionists.Millsy said:Having a majority is even more reason to hand over to the next generation before 2020 as it gives the successor a fighting chance of remaining PM rather than the worst job in politics (Loto).
One of the few concrete things we have learnt about Cameron these past few years is that he is not obsessed or ideological about politics in the same way as say Brown and Miliband. He is more like Blair and he will go at the right time rather than shoved out by the electorate or his party.0 -
Very well put, Mr Bond. I'm prepared to disagree on Kendall, who could be a good centrist outsider even if she's not the new Blair - but If the party choose Stafford they've lost the next election already.Bond_James_Bond said:
It doesn't show she's a credible candidate at all: she's Gerald Ford. She has no discernible positives, except that she isn't Richard Nixon and has not yet failed in post.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Chuka’s entire leadership team backing Liz Kendall a big deal, shows she is now a credible candidate which should help her gain more support
Frankly, any of the contenduhs will get taken apart. It's a matter of total indifference which of the various nobodies on offer wins. I still favour Butcher because he can spend five years failing to live down the Mid Staffs Massacre before experiencing his own. In 2020 he and the Labour Party will, in an electoral sense, find out what it is like to drink the water from your flower vase then die of starvation in the workhouse amid your own ordure.
Mr Bumble the Beadle for leader. 24 Hours To Save Labour's Filthy Workhouses. What can go wrong?
It is a structural flaw in the Labour Party that, because it is vehemently anti-merit and pro-quota, it always ends up with a PLP made up largely of identikit nodding dogs. Its women MPs are MPs because they're women, not because they're good. As a result, every Labour leader elected in the last 35 years has with only one exception been a laughable fourth-rate election-losing buffoon. Why would this trend stop?0 -
His auntie may grow balls by 2019, and find she's his uncle.justin124 said:
He may no longer have a majority by 2019 and find his survival dependent on Confidence & Supply from various Unionists.Millsy said:Having a majority is even more reason to hand over to the next generation before 2020 as it gives the successor a fighting chance of remaining PM rather than the worst job in politics (Loto).
One of the few concrete things we have learnt about Cameron these past few years is that he is not obsessed or ideological about politics in the same way as say Brown and Miliband. He is more like Blair and he will go at the right time rather than shoved out by the electorate or his party.
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But if Cameron goes early he will be called a liar - having promised to serve a full second term.OblitusSumMe said:
When the Labour leadership timetable was announced it was compared unfavourably with the 2005 Conservative leadership election, when the Party Conference was used as a sort of Grand Public Interview for the contenders. Perhaps the situation is different when you are choosing a leader in government, but I would think that would be a possibility.david_herdson said:
I agree. There are two obvious options:Casino_Royale said:I think in the same interview he said, "I wouldn't say enjoy", when asked if he enjoyed being Prime Minister. Instead he said it was an honour and privilege.
I sense he will want to spend more time with Samantha, who he clearly thinks the world of, and his children as soon as he feels his work his done.
I expect that to happen fairly late on in this parliament. Probably in the last 12 months of the parliament.
1. A Tory leadership election over the summer of 2019, with the new leader to be announced at the Party Conference in October.
2. Cameron standing down at the conference, with the leadership election running through to December.
Any later and it becomes difficult for the new man or woman to sufficiently make their stamp on the general election campaign without undue disruption. Also, either timetable would overshadow the other two conferences without obviously hijacking the news.
The other thing to consider is whether Cameron would go early enough that the new leader would get one Queen's Speech and one session of Parliament before the election - so departing in autumn 2018, rather than 2019. I know that Boris has been cited in the media as desiring that Cameron stands aside soon after the EU referendum, rather than soon before the general election.0 -
Either (a) he really doesn't want the job; or (b) he thinks she will lose and he has the option of running as the 'do change properly' candidate in 2020Scott_P said:@ChukaUmunna: Blog: Why @EmmaReynoldsMP @JReynoldsMP & @StephenTwigg and I are backing @Liz4Leader | http://t.co/WTdsqV45Kp @TheStaggers @NewStatesman
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I don't have a dog in this fight yet but the list of MP endorsements is interesting for its lack of obvious pattern - not all modernisers or traditionalists or Blairites or left-wingers in any camp:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/list-mps-endorsements-labour-leadership-candidates
Yvette getting rather more Shadow Ministers than the others, I think - not much pattern otherwise. Quite a few well-known names haven't endorsed anyone yet.
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Bond Attlee won 2 elections, Wilson 4, Blair 3, after 10 Tory years in power and likely divided post EU ref, Labour will have a better leader and the Tories will likely no longer be led by Cameron, the only Tory leader other than Thatcher to have twice won most seats post 19450
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North Pembrokeshire is quite similar to Cardiganshire.Financier said:
Ceredigion's electorate is less than 60,000 and so will have to be part of a larger constituency - most likely part of Pembrokeshire which is not so Liberal or PC friendly.TheScreamingEagles said:
From the head of Opinium's political polling teamPulpstar said:
OrkneyCharles said:
Do they have Orkney & Shetland as a hold?TheScreamingEagles said:The Times say were the number of MPs reduced to 600 from 650 then the Lib Dems would only have 4 (four) MPs under the new boundaries.
*heads off the meeting, whistling innocently*
Westmorland
Norfolk North
Ceredigion
I think.
Westmorland and Lonsdale is the only properly safe seat I reckon.
@AGKD123: On seat boundaries, the phrase "the Lib Dems could lose half their seats" doesn't exactly carry as much weight now that it means "lose four"0 -
Sandpit John McDonnell0
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"I'm not contemplating a third term," can simply be taken as a statement that his mind is on the job in the present. I've said before that I think there's enough wiggle room for Cameron that his options remain open.0
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There's something of a pattern when you look at a map...NickPalmer said:I don't have a dog in this fight yet but the list of MP endorsements is interesting for its lack of obvious pattern - not all modernisers or traditionalists or Blairites or left-wingers in any camp:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/list-mps-endorsements-labour-leadership-candidates
Yvette getting rather more Shadow Ministers than the others, I think - not much pattern otherwise. Quite a few well-known names haven't endorsed anyone yet.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/6031568919806935040 -
Edinburgh needs new boundaries, the lack of a Edinburgh Central leads to weird constituencies.surbiton said:
According to the December 2013 numbers, the average constituency sizes were as follows:Pulpstar said:Edinburgh North and Leith electorate up almost 12,000 !
UK 70985
England 72415
Scotland 68257
Wales 57431
Northern Ireland 67687
But average Scottish numbers may have gone up considerably since then. So rather than Scottish seats going down, it could be going up.0 -
I feel very childish for suggesting this nickname, but... Stafford Crapps?Sandpit said:
Very well put, Mr Bond. I'm prepared to disagree on Kendall, who could be a good centrist outsider even if she's not the new Blair - but If the party choose Stafford they've lost the next election already.Bond_James_Bond said:
It doesn't show she's a credible candidate at all: she's Gerald Ford. She has no discernible positives, except that she isn't Richard Nixon and has not yet failed in post.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Chuka’s entire leadership team backing Liz Kendall a big deal, shows she is now a credible candidate which should help her gain more support
Frankly, any of the contenduhs will get taken apart. It's a matter of total indifference which of the various nobodies on offer wins. I still favour Butcher because he can spend five years failing to live down the Mid Staffs Massacre before experiencing his own. In 2020 he and the Labour Party will, in an electoral sense, find out what it is like to drink the water from your flower vase then die of starvation in the workhouse amid your own ordure.
Mr Bumble the Beadle for leader. 24 Hours To Save Labour's Filthy Workhouses. What can go wrong?
It is a structural flaw in the Labour Party that, because it is vehemently anti-merit and pro-quota, it always ends up with a PLP made up largely of identikit nodding dogs. Its women MPs are MPs because they're women, not because they're good. As a result, every Labour leader elected in the last 35 years has with only one exception been a laughable fourth-rate election-losing buffoon. Why would this trend stop?0 -
Attlee and Wislon were longer ago than the 35 years I gave. The metropolitan liberal north London public-sector quangocrats that make up the PLP today have nothing to say to the voters who elected Wislon four times, mainly because the PLP despises them, the white-van-driving England-flag-waving oiks.HYUFD said:Bond Attlee won 2 elections, Wilson 4, Blair 3, after 10 Tory years in power and likely divided post EU ref, Labour will have a better leader and the Tories will likely no longer be led by Cameron, the only Tory leader other than Thatcher to have twice won most seats post 1945
The only reason there has been only one Tory leader to win twice recently is because the period you're looking at is too short. In 1990 only Thatcher had recently won three elections, for example.
Labour had has seven goes at a leader since 1980 and has come up with unelectable loonies on all but one occasion, when they elected an electable loony. In the same way that to get the best idea of what tomorrow's weather will be like you look at today's, it seems logical that the next Labour leader will, like six of the last seven, be abject crap.
There is more prospect of climate change altering the weather by tomorrow than of Labour electing an impressive leader in June - a conclusion of which we can be 100% confident, because we've seen the candidate pool. I cannot think why you think they'll have a better leader. Why would they?0 -
LOLNeilVW said:
I feel very childish for suggesting this nickname, but... Stafford Crapps?Sandpit said:
Very well put, Mr Bond. I'm prepared to disagree on Kendall, who could be a good centrist outsider even if she's not the new Blair - but If the party choose Stafford they've lost the next election already.Bond_James_Bond said:
It doesn't show she's a credible candidate at all: she's Gerald Ford. She has no discernible positives, except that she isn't Richard Nixon and has not yet failed in post.Scott_P said:@JGForsyth: Chuka’s entire leadership team backing Liz Kendall a big deal, shows she is now a credible candidate which should help her gain more support
Frankly, any of the contenduhs will get taken apart. It's a matter of total indifference which of the various nobodies on offer wins. I still favour Butcher because he can spend five years failing to live down the Mid Staffs Massacre before experiencing his own. In 2020 he and the Labour Party will, in an electoral sense, find out what it is like to drink the water from your flower vase then die of starvation in the workhouse amid your own ordure.
Mr Bumble the Beadle for leader. 24 Hours To Save Labour's Filthy Workhouses. What can go wrong?
It is a structural flaw in the Labour Party that, because it is vehemently anti-merit and pro-quota, it always ends up with a PLP made up largely of identikit nodding dogs. Its women MPs are MPs because they're women, not because they're good. As a result, every Labour leader elected in the last 35 years has with only one exception been a laughable fourth-rate election-losing buffoon. Why would this trend stop?0 -
It's perhaps also significant that the spin about this interview was much more definitive than any quote directly attributable to Cameron.
In the context of speculation about Boris Johnson or someone else taking over, this may just have just been a device to get 'I'm going to serve a full term' onto the record prior to the election which means his position is now unassailable until at least 2019 when Cameron will still hold all the cards himself.0 -
I agree that North Pemb is quite similar to Cardiganshire, and I don't think Ceredigion is particularly "Liberal" any more. I just think that the anti-PC vote is quite strong there (due to demographic changes), and has coalesced around the Liberal candidate, as the best stop-PC option. Adding North Pemb to the existing electorate would not change that calculation (in my opinion).justin124 said:
North Pembrokeshire is quite similar to Cardiganshire.Financier said:
Ceredigion's electorate is less than 60,000 and so will have to be part of a larger constituency - most likely part of Pembrokeshire which is not so Liberal or PC friendly.TheScreamingEagles said:
From the head of Opinium's political polling teamPulpstar said:
OrkneyCharles said:
Do they have Orkney & Shetland as a hold?TheScreamingEagles said:The Times say were the number of MPs reduced to 600 from 650 then the Lib Dems would only have 4 (four) MPs under the new boundaries.
*heads off the meeting, whistling innocently*
Westmorland
Norfolk North
Ceredigion
I think.
Westmorland and Lonsdale is the only properly safe seat I reckon.
@AGKD123: On seat boundaries, the phrase "the Lib Dems could lose half their seats" doesn't exactly carry as much weight now that it means "lose four"0 -
Before Clegg, Richard Allan won the seat for the Lib Dems in 1997 and held it in 2001 with over 50% of the vote. Labour doubled their vote in this election, before that they were in third place with 16% or less.antifrank said:I can't imagine Nick Clegg fighting Sheffield Hallam in 2020. (It seems entirely conceivable that his old chum David Cameron might find him something useful to do before then that necessitates a by-election.)
Without Nick Clegg I can't imagine the Lib Dems holding Sheffield Hallam. I'm not sure who wins it, but the Lib Dems don't.
I suggest that 2015 was Labour's best chance with the LibDems unpopular and in Government and the Tories also in Government. Hallam isn't a natural Labour area.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Bond I remember 10 -15 years ago the Tories getting fewer MPs than Michael Foot in 3 successive elections, it is impossible to firmly predict a week ahead in politics, let alone 5 years0
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With a tiny majority and everybody in the party angling for his job Cameron should pull a Naoto Kan and say he'll go, but not until they've passed all his legislation.0
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Danczuk, Hunt, HodgeNickPalmer said:I don't have a dog in this fight yet but the list of MP endorsements is interesting for its lack of obvious pattern - not all modernisers or traditionalists or Blairites or left-wingers in any camp:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/list-mps-endorsements-labour-leadership-candidates
Yvette getting rather more Shadow Ministers than the others, I think - not much pattern otherwise. Quite a few well-known names haven't endorsed anyone yet.
Tells me all i need to know about the Blair Witch Project0 -
I think everyone recognises that Cameron's successor will need a little time to get their feet under the desk, and the definition of "a little time" is usefully elastic.justin124 said:
But if Cameron goes early he will be called a liar - having promised to serve a full second term.OblitusSumMe said:
When the Labour leadership timetable was announced it was compared unfavourably with the 2005 Conservative leadership election, when the Party Conference was used as a sort of Grand Public Interview for the contenders. Perhaps the situation is different when you are choosing a leader in government, but I would think that would be a possibility.david_herdson said:
I agree. There are two obvious options:Casino_Royale said:I think in the same interview he said, "I wouldn't say enjoy", when asked if he enjoyed being Prime Minister. Instead he said it was an honour and privilege.
I sense he will want to spend more time with Samantha, who he clearly thinks the world of, and his children as soon as he feels his work his done.
I expect that to happen fairly late on in this parliament. Probably in the last 12 months of the parliament.
1. A Tory leadership election over the summer of 2019, with the new leader to be announced at the Party Conference in October.
2. Cameron standing down at the conference, with the leadership election running through to December.
Any later and it becomes difficult for the new man or woman to sufficiently make their stamp on the general election campaign without undue disruption. Also, either timetable would overshadow the other two conferences without obviously hijacking the news.
The other thing to consider is whether Cameron would go early enough that the new leader would get one Queen's Speech and one session of Parliament before the election - so departing in autumn 2018, rather than 2019. I know that Boris has been cited in the media as desiring that Cameron stands aside soon after the EU referendum, rather than soon before the general election.
If he has delivered on manifesto commitments then I think he will be forgiven a bit of flexibility on timing.0 -
WG If Cameron wins a big In vote in 2017 and Labour does not have a clear poll lead and the economic situation is very strong Cameron may consider running again, if not, he won't but will head off to a Mauritius beach with SamCam having been the second longest serving Tory leader after Thatcher since the war and matched Blair's time in office0
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Sandpit Sunday's yougov had Stafford the favoured choice of Labour, LD, UKIP voters and even Tories, albeit with Kendall not far behind, it may be name recognition and Kendall could catch up but it certainly suggests the voters are more willing to listen to Stafford than some pbTories0
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It's not, but the Lib Dem vote isn't exactly a "natural" Lib Dem vote right now, either. The Conservatives have a long way to come back from to take it in 1 electoral cycle though. My best guess would be 2020: Labour take on ~ 34% of the vote or so. 2025 Con Gain.logical_song said:
Before Clegg, Richard Allan won the seat for the Lib Dems in 1997 and held it in 2001 with over 50% of the vote. Labour doubled their vote in this election, before that they were in third place with 16% or less.antifrank said:I can't imagine Nick Clegg fighting Sheffield Hallam in 2020. (It seems entirely conceivable that his old chum David Cameron might find him something useful to do before then that necessitates a by-election.)
Without Nick Clegg I can't imagine the Lib Dems holding Sheffield Hallam. I'm not sure who wins it, but the Lib Dems don't.
I suggest that 2015 was Labour's best chance with the LibDems unpopular and in Government and the Tories also in Government. Hallam isn't a natural Labour area.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If UKIP take Hallam, it'll mean they are on over 600 seats.0 -
Shokking ommishun of SLab mp's view on the leadership.Tissue_Price said:
There's something of a pattern when you look at a map...NickPalmer said:I don't have a dog in this fight yet but the list of MP endorsements is interesting for its lack of obvious pattern - not all modernisers or traditionalists or Blairites or left-wingers in any camp:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/list-mps-endorsements-labour-leadership-candidates
Yvette getting rather more Shadow Ministers than the others, I think - not much pattern otherwise. Quite a few well-known names haven't endorsed anyone yet.0 -
Have you been tested for dementia or were you simply not around at the time of the 1992 - 1997 Parliament?Bond_James_Bond said:
His auntie may grow balls by 2019, and find she's his uncle.justin124 said:
He may no longer have a majority by 2019 and find his survival dependent on Confidence & Supply from various Unionists.Millsy said:Having a majority is even more reason to hand over to the next generation before 2020 as it gives the successor a fighting chance of remaining PM rather than the worst job in politics (Loto).
One of the few concrete things we have learnt about Cameron these past few years is that he is not obsessed or ideological about politics in the same way as say Brown and Miliband. He is more like Blair and he will go at the right time rather than shoved out by the electorate or his party.0 -
An occasional PB thread writer has just become Sadiq Khan's campaign manager.
Huzzah for Marcus Roberts0 -
New Thread
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Perhaps, but then they were up against the biggest, bloodiest liar UK politics has seen since Lloyd George. Blair lied to borrow votes; now those votes are being paid back. I have high hopes that he'll turn out to be Labour's Lloyd George figure, i.e. their last-ever PM,HYUFD said:Bond I remember 10 -15 years ago the Tories getting fewer MPs than Michael Foot in 3 successive elections, it is impossible to firmly predict a week ahead in politics, let alone 5 years
Labour never really changed, but every generation has to learn for itself about Labour, which is that it fosters race and class division, taxes people it hates and envies, and then wrecks the economy. That's it; that's what they do. Blair was an interlude they tolerated, because he got them back in, but a lot of Labourites couldn't really see the point of being in power on Blair's terms. If they couldn't foster race and class division, tax people they hate and envy, and then wreck the economy, what's the point of being in power, exactly?
Labour now is actually back in 1995. It is often misremembered that the Tories lost their reputation for economic competence in September 1992, but IIRC the polls didn't go anywhere much when that happened; nothing that was inconsistent with the usual mid-term blues. What changed was when Blair came along, stopped peddling envy, and started lying about sleaze. In a way he was right about Tory sleaze being disgraceful - it wasn't even trying to be the kind of top-down sleaze he had in mind.
Unlike 1995, Labour doesn't have the Blair option any more. They have fewer MPs - wasn't Major already a minority when Blair became leader? - and the MPs they do have are poorer, being largely selected on racist and sexist lines rather than on merit. To the extent they do, most of Labour still hates Blair. So what we'll get is another John Smith.
I really don't know where Labour goes from here because leftism loses them elections, but they bitterly hate the centre. Polly still thinks their policies were popular FGS...0 -
Is he Lib Dem vote in Sheffield Hallam likely to go down or up from now? It could be argued that 2015 is the nadir as they were in coalition supporting the Tories and now are no longer in that position. If Labour couldn't take Hallam this year I still think that they are less likely to in 2020.Pulpstar said:
It's not, but the Lib Dem vote isn't exactly a "natural" Lib Dem vote right now, either. The Conservatives have a long way to come back from to take it in 1 electoral cycle though. My best guess would be 2020: Labour take on ~ 34% of the vote or so. 2025 Con Gain.logical_song said:
Before Clegg, Richard Allan won the seat for the Lib Dems in 1997 and held it in 2001 with over 50% of the vote. Labour doubled their vote in this election, before that they were in third place with 16% or less.antifrank said:I can't imagine Nick Clegg fighting Sheffield Hallam in 2020. (It seems entirely conceivable that his old chum David Cameron might find him something useful to do before then that necessitates a by-election.)
Without Nick Clegg I can't imagine the Lib Dems holding Sheffield Hallam. I'm not sure who wins it, but the Lib Dems don't.
I suggest that 2015 was Labour's best chance with the LibDems unpopular and in Government and the Tories also in Government. Hallam isn't a natural Labour area.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheffield_Hallam_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
If UKIP take Hallam, it'll mean they are on over 600 seats.
I suspect that they will come third trending back towards the 16% they got in 2010 and the 12.6% they got in 2005, Tories 2nd and Lib Dems holding on again.0 -
You clearly are a dementia sufferer. Labour had a huge poll lead before John Smith's death - just look at the 1994 local elections/ 1994 Euroelections and the trio of byelections held on the same day. Moreover having started with a majority of 21 - or 23 if Kilfedder was included - Major did not lose his majority until the beginning of 1997.Bond_James_Bond said:
Perhaps, but then they were up against the biggest, bloodiest liar UK politics has seen since Lloyd George. Blair lied to borrow votes; now those votes are being paid back. I have high hopes that he'll turn out to be Labour's Lloyd George figure, i.e. their last-ever PM,HYUFD said:Bond I remember 10 -15 years ago the Tories getting fewer MPs than Michael Foot in 3 successive elections, it is impossible to firmly predict a week ahead in politics, let alone 5 years
Labour never really changed, but every generation has to learn for itself about Labour, which is that it fosters race and class division, taxes people it hates and envies, and then wrecks the economy. That's it; that's what they do. Blair was an interlude they tolerated, because he got them back in, but a lot of Labourites couldn't really see the point of being in power on Blair's terms. If they couldn't foster race and class division, tax people they hate and envy, and then wreck the economy, what's the point of being in power, exactly?
Labour now is actually back in 1995. It is often misremembered that the Tories lost their reputation for economic competence in September 1992, but IIRC the polls didn't go anywhere much when that happened; nothing that was inconsistent with the usual mid-term blues. What changed was when Blair came along, stopped peddling envy, and started lying about sleaze. In a way he was right about Tory sleaze being disgraceful - it wasn't even trying to be the kind of top-down sleaze he had in mind.
Unlike 1995, Labour doesn't have the Blair option any more. They have fewer MPs - wasn't Major already a minority when Blair became leader? - and the MPs they do have are poorer, being largely selected on racist and sexist lines rather than on merit. To the extent they do, most of Labour still hates Blair. So what we'll get is another John Smith.
I really don't know where Labour goes from here because leftism loses them elections, but they bitterly hate the centre. Polly still thinks their policies were popular FGS...0 -
I see you are as cuckoo as everMonikerDiCanio said:
Since Sturgeon is the highest paid politician in the UK, perhaps she could volunteer to return some of her ample salary to the public purse to help the needy. Actions speak louder than words, hen.Philip_Thompson said:Sturgeon complaining about spending cuts.
Oh diddums. Shame your side lost the election isn't it?0 -
Justin124 Agreed Smith would have won in 97, indeed Brown would have won in 2005, only the LDs likely to rereplace Labour tre ce0