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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson looks at the LDs following the GE15 outcome
The Lib Dems and their predecessors have been through some bad times over the years but what faces them now is their worst crisis in nearly a century.
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Already it is clear what a brake the LDs were on the Tories throughout the last Parliament. I would have voted for them on 7th May if their candidate had been best placed to beat my Tory incumbent; I did vote for them in the locals. Laws aside, I had time for all their MPs.
But they are buggered.
They need to drop the Democrat bit, get back to Liberalism and start again.
Yvette Cooper would have been a good choice if she wasn`t Ed Balls` wife.
Rightly or wrongly Ed Balls is toxic with Tory voters,therefore it will be easy for the Tory press to amalgamate the two in the public`s mind.
I don`t think she is the frontrunner.In the absence of Chukka,Andy Burnham is in the front.
As summed up in the article, they aren't the NOTA, they aren't even the Localist option (if you want to stop building on greenfield you vote green, if you want to ban windmills you vote UKIP and either option will be more dedicated than the Libs).
I can't see a way they can come back. Possibly ever. The only reason they clung on in the 50s and 60s was because they had that history. But this is a new party where significant chunks of the membership are not actually Liberals. It can't rely on that any more.
I think they are finished.
it is an abomination imho.
http://www.liberal.org.uk/
might object.
They will need to find some better arguments in favour of the EU than jobs. That's one reason why the 2014 attempt flopped, it was terribly uninspiring.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/599555935724511233
But then, even more bizarrely, he walks past the press conference set up for him and leaves without a single comment. Things are getting surreal in Scottish Labour
Sadly for him he's too old to ever attempt a come back.
Will have to see what happened, but it's possible nobody wants to bell the Holyrood election cat.
http://paulhutcheon.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/united-they-stand.html
"Party sources tell me that [Kez] Dugdale replacing Murphy is a question of “when”, rather than “if”.
However, Murphy has power over the timing of a succession.
Kez’s supporters would prefer Murphy to lead Labour into what will likely be another election defeat at the Holyrood poll next year.
The plan would be for Murphy to then hand over the reins to the Lothians MSP.
An immediate Murphy exit would mean Kez leading Labour into defeat – an outcome that would make her dead woman walking."
Claims he instigated the vote. Says "overwhelmingly backed". Ranting against "rising Nationalism".
You know know nothing Jim Murphy.
Then he resigns.
Sure, fear, uncertainty and doubt can and will play a large role in winning the EU referendum for IN, but it's not going to attract new supporters, members and activists to the Liberal Democrats.
Jim Murphy resigns as Scottish Labour leader.
They won't do that though. They will probably cling to this 'party of in' nonsense - 'just one more push, it will work this time'.
It comes despite Mr Murphy surviving a vote of no confidence at a meeting of the party's national executive in Glasgow.
Mr Murphy said he would tender his resignation alongside a plan to reform the party.
He said he wanted to have a successor in place by the summer.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32760196
Murphy has walked on to the point of a sharp sword of his own accord.
What with all these leaders?
"I'm resigning. No I'm not, I'm sending a letter about resigning. Maybe. Hey, do you still love me?"
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"McCluskey - head of Unite - would back teh wrong horse ina one horse race"
@DH
I think that the LDs will revive soon enough. As you delineate they have had plenty of catastrophes over the years, but this one is not so existential as the rest.
The Tories are already baby-eating in office, with repeal of the human rights act, fox hunting and shortly with eurobashing. UKIP are imploding. Labour will have a tough time rebuilding and the continuity candidate is favourite.
There is planty of room for a Farron led ground up revival, though it is more than a five year job.
Early days, very early days.
One of my favourite Columbo's on Channel Five, "The Most Dangerous Match" from 1973.
Good point. That the Liberals of all people were committed to imposing the repulsive Leveson diktats is both shaming and sad. They had there the perfect opportunity to put clear yellow water between themselves and the other lot; it would have shown a moral fortitude and been in perfect concord with their own history and traditions. But they blew it. I don't know why. Does Dr 'Death' Harris have Clegg's ear or something?
"Mr Murphy also said he would not be seeking election to the Scottish Parliament in next year's election."
:i-blame-ILEA:
Scottish Labour was already a dead nag.
Of course it would be hugely difficult, as the regions of England don't really have the regional identity that Scotland or Wales do, but the Lib Dems are in desperate waters.
For the lib Dems this is a major problem. They genuinely seemed to have no idea what was coming their way. They got nothing like the lift they got from the 3 way debates in 2010. They will never get that again. Their operations for a national campaign were frankly hopeless. Without short money how will they get any better?
I really think there is no way back, at least in a timescale any readers of this blog will ever see.
Fascinating - at the moment it's the two deniers who are the favourites.
@foxinsoxuk "The Tories are already baby-eating in office, with repeal of the human rights act, fox hunting and shortly with eurobashing."
An interesting description of the Tories fulfilling some of the points in their manifesto. I guess it's an alien idea to LDs.
:feral-rats-facing-the-sack:
Or will Mr Murphy change the rules before he goes?
As well as being pre-Referendum and nearly two years ago, the impact of Falkirk does not seem to be in the public mind. It might have been more of an issue on the doorstep in Halifax (or wherever his "friend" actually stood) but any localist Falkirk issues were about Joyce. However, even that was swamped by the national mood which was "screw Labour".
I think the LibDems were the biggest casualties of the entire commentariat unequivocally talking down the possibility of anything other than a hung parliament. The electorate thought they could punish them because there would be somebody else available to keep the Conservatives in check.
The Progressive party?
A national free vote on Europe.
Replacement of the HRA with a British Bill of Rights.
No baby eating here... move along.
She voted for Balls in 2010. So no surprise
It's just a question of how long it takes Labour and erstwhile social democrats elsewhere to realise this.
The man totally lacks even a semblence of class.
I think Libs down to two seats (Orkney and NE List) is the most likely outcome. Rennie would have to resign anyway if reduced to that in a PR system. He is as well sticking to Mid Scotland so he won;t have the embarrassment of having to appear in Holyrood.
It's true. Their core problem in Scotland is a complete inability to realise that Holyrood is a Consensus based parliament and not an Adversarial one. They never adapted to that and kept blaming the wrong message or stupid voters for their failures. The voters realise you need consensual politics and Labour aren't willing to offer that.
You could be right about Boyack but for the same reason that you're right, Labour will never voter her in.
Fox and Tommy despite each other and both control their respective parties quite solidly, so there won't be a Socialist Alliance grouping either even though, technically, that could give them both a chance of a seat at Holyrood.
I've really heard enough of the whingers and moaners on here trying to explain away a very clear voter preference for right of centre politics last week. They rejected Milibandism and Cleggism pretty clearly despite the Tory alleged desire to eat babies. FFS get over yourselves - try listening to the voters instead of getting blown off course by all that chatter from your backsides.
But in 50 years when Scotland is Independent, when historians look back, perhaps that will be the moment, the one single point in time when EVERYTHING changed. He would have been a great and very popular first minister, I think. In the end, if that does become the reason, it will be Labour that killed itself (and the Union).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4393622.stm
http://www.publicfinance.co.uk/node/17847
Don't think it has hit home what the 2015 result will mean for their media coverage either - news, interviews, party conferences etc.
Finished.
Not even ICM's methodology will give them that kind of a boost above 10%.
They need to take votes from someone and it doesn't look like there is anyone they can apart from the Greens.
'Finished'
Another problem is that many of the 8 seats they held are now marginals.
Things change in politics.
Fundamentally what kept the Liberals alive during the 20th century were their two formidable redoubts: the Celtic fringes (Scotland and Cornwall). Now those have been lost, I think it's just a matter of time.
In government, she was responsible for the wonderful HIPs and Philip Hammond, that is Philip I wouldn't say boo to anybody, used to easily out argue her when he was her shadow.
https://twitter.com/tambritton/status/599486325197283328