politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And let’s not forget the pollsters and the polls
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And let’s not forget the pollsters and the polls
How Survation chickened out of publishing poll that was almost spot on using ballot form prompt
http://t.co/aQNIRRRecu
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I can reveal exclusively from the poll that strong Lib Dem incumbency effect should save them here.
I recommend Boris for Minister for Families ;-)
Having said that, many people on this site don't seem to understand what MOE means. Time and again we see someone say "oh if a poll has Lab 30 Con 35 then it's just as likely it's Lab 33 Con 32." WRONG.
There IS some merit in internet polling, so I'd like to see YouGov going back to doing 2-3 monthly survey's. Opinium can stay because they at least did pick up on Con crossover.
Survation, Panelbase, TNS, Populus Online etc... Have all just been a complete waste of everyone's time and should just disappear.
Lord Ashcroft should pack his polling in (especially his marginals polls which have been a total waste of space) he should also show some contrition to David Cameron who he clearly loathes and tried to use his polling to undermine.
Mori and ComRes once or twice monthly polls are fine.
ICM has been damaged by the election, IMO. Martin Boon should resign after publically calling into doubt his own polls when that 39/33 poll appeared. ICM's reputation has been further damaged by the "eve and day of poll polls". That's something else that should be consigned to the bin, BTW... All that polling yesterday was ridiculous and just damaged all the polling companies involved.
The big message is that we're clearly back to "shy Tores" which all pollsters need to look at again and adjust their spirals of silence.
The panels of the online pollsters can't be trusted, so whilst as I said at the start, online polling has some merit, overall if you want a good opinion poll you have to be prepared to pay for a phone poll.
What I took from telling in Dagenham and Rainham yesterday was there are a huge number of people who feel let down and want someone to stick up for them.a lot if the elderly people thought I was the candidate and were begging me to win! On the other hand I felt v uncomfortable asking non white people for their card number whilst wearing a Ukip rosette, and it kind of hurt to be the bad guy in their eyes., as I presumed they thought I was anti them... I've not met anyone at Ukip dos that was racist, and many I have met are desperate to be inclusive. I think it's a shame we were smeared as racist as it prevents a lot of people associating. It would be great to get a large black vote in particular without pandering to people on race issues. Just treat everyone the same
Really though I don't think it's a failure to get 13%, it's prob above what I expected. The seats were terribly disappointing but v close to getting 3 or 4. It's the way the cookie bounces. Glorious failure, quite romantic!
I think Farage was hasty to stand down and I hope he is encouraged to run again and wins. I don't want Ukip to be softened up and changed into a photoshopped glossy party with frontmen and women that the other sides like, I want us to be true to ourselves and tear it up!
One question, what does Cameron do with Gove? Not sure he is going to be happy doing his non-job. Perhaps he can boot Slimy Mr Green into touch and have Gove do a day to day media bashing operation.
What I took from telling in Dagenham and Rainham yesterday was there are a huge number of people who feel let down and want someone to stick up for them.a lot if the elderly people thought I was the candidate and were begging me to win! On the other hand I felt v uncomfortable asking non white people for their card number whilst wearing a Ukip rosette, and it kind of hurt to be the bad guy in their eyes., as I presumed they thought I was anti them I've not met anyone at Ukip dos that was racist, and many I have met are desperate to be inclusive. I think it's a shame we were smeared as racist as it prevents a lot of people associating. It would be great to get a large black vote in particular without pandering to people on race issues. Just treat everyone the same
Really though I don't think it's a failure to get 13%, it's prob above what I expected. The seats were terribly disappointing but v close to getting 3 or 4. It's the way the cookie bounces. Glorious failure, quite romantic!
I think Farage was hasty to stand down and I hope he is encouraged to run again and wins. I don't want Ukip to be softened up and changed into a photoshopped glossy party with frontmen and women that the other sides like, I want us to be true to ourselves and tear it up!
Sam I just mailed you again
@Richard_Nabavi Thanks for your kind comment on the previous thread. I hope you enjoy your victory and satisfaction from your hard work over many years. That majority has been a long time coming.
It's now official: ComRes was the most accurate pollster of #GE2015
New Gold (well Bronze at least) Standard!
In fact, they were right in Scotland and the punters did not pay attention to them
They were wrong in the UK and punters followed the on NOM all the way down to 1.05
There would be aneurisms from Hampstead to Liverpool.....
Labour 18 wards (including the one with double vacancies)
UKIP 3
Incumbent Cllrs standing again: 8...6 re-elected, 2 beaten
The Scottish polls had no Question 1 to 2 bounce, and CRUCIALLY were backed up by national polls and very strong leader ratings for Sturgeon.
A quad of believability.
Imo.
The ComRes Lib/Con marginals poll's was uncannily accurate unlike Lord Ashcrofts nonsense...
Although getting over 20% is not necessarily that impressive if the winning party are ahead by a huge margin. I think Rotherham had Labour on 55% and UKIP on 32%. For a small party a couple of dozen close calls may be better than 100+ as money and resources will be an issue.
"4 main runners:
2/1 Chuka
4/1 Burnham
5/1 Cooper
6/1 Jarvis"
If Labour go for any of these they will be like the Bourbons of Spain - learning nothing, forgetting nothing.
They are part of the problem not the solution. The first 3 are empty-headed and/or too connected with the current Labour party. I can't comment on Jarvis.
They are not the people to rethink what Labour is about. They are not the people to persuade people in 5 years time to vote Labour.
They need to go back to first principles:
- They need to understand what liberal and progressive mean, really mean. Shacking up with segregationists is not progressive.
- They need to rediscover the best of their Methodist, Christian socialist roots - the desire to help those at the bottom end better themselves.
- They need to stop worshipping the state or any emanation of it (the NHS) as an end in itself rather than a means to an end.
- They need to remember that the state, public servants are there to serve the people not the other way around.
- They need to understand that economic competence is the sine qua non of every government.
- They need to remember that they are spending taxpayers' money and that they need to spend it wisely and effectively.
- They need to believe in Britain and British values rather than view them, in an de haut en bas way, with disdain.
- They need to abandon the patronising and racist identity/community politics shtick.
- They need to remember that it is what you do and not how you describe yourself which tells voters what your values are.
- They need to stop behaving as if anyone who disagrees with them is evil.
- They need to remember that decency and fairness and honesty are the monopoly of no-one.
As for the Survation tweet above for some reason the words of Mandy Rice Davies spring to mind
Con 35
Lab 32
UKIP 14
LD 9
Grn 4
Cons and UKIP up, Labour going nowhere and LDs losing seats
There once was a leader called Ed
Briefly
Jarvis could be decent. Cooper's the best of the more established three. Burnham would be feeble [voice is too high. With the exception of Scorpius, high voices don't convey authority]. Umunna would be atrocious, for Labour.
As a corollary to this analysis, it's clear that Labour must prioritise voter education in order to get the feckless at the foodbanks to understand that one little cross every 5 years might make the foodbank unnecessary.
Firstly I reckoned the most reputable polls were showing a small Con lead, averaging over the last couple of weeks. I think it's a mistake to list just the last poll from each pollster as Mike has done above - you have to be careful not to be fooled by randomness, and any given poll series will include noise of two or three percent in any given vote share. Taking account of the whole picture of the last couple of weeks, my starting 'nowcast' for the opinion polls was something like 34% Con 32% Lab.
I then made a hunch-based adjustment, reflecting what seemed to me to be a very noticeable phenomenon: there was considerable determination amongst Con supporters, but Labour supporters were lukewarm about Ed Miliband at best. It's one thing to tell a pollster you'll vote Labour (out of brand loyalty or because you identify with what you perceive as Labour's values), but actually going out and making a deliberate step to bring someone you know in your heart of hearts is a duffer into No 10 is another matter.
I appreciate that pollsters are supposed to correct for this differential enthusiasm, but it's jolly hard for them to do so. My guess is that this issue is the weak point which led to the error being so large.
I'd add one further point: it wasn't just Ed Miliband who was the problem. He is now destined to be the scapegoat upon whom Labour will heap all the blame, but this is unfair, or at least is not the whole story. His Shadow Cabinet was feeble and disengaged. There were no coherent policies. If there had been coherent policies, they'd have put off some of their support base anyway. It was as much strategic confusion as Ed Miliband personally which was their problem.
Is the fact not made worse by having so many and some of them so very frequently and also some of them changing methodologies at different times?
Most of the interviewees were abysmal, commencing with the dreadful "I'll eat my hat" Pantsdown who from the outset attempted to totally ridicule the stunningly accurate exit poll - what a total prat he must feel today!
Way, way too much attention was given over to the Scottish results (and the rather unpleasant SNP leaders) which make up less than 10% of the seats in the HoC and quite what the fragrant Sophie Raworth was doing with her tiles outside Broadcasting House remains a total mystery.
Dimbleby was irrascible throughout, sometimes very audibly so and is clearly too old for the gig.
"Phil Silvers" Robinson was very evidently unwell and shouldn't have appeared.
A total mess really.
Although in the end they did underestimate the Tory lead by 3% or more, I really thought the phone companies were on to something.
The Phone pollsters' ELBOW leads in recent weeks were:
26th April = Con 2.8% lead
1st May = Con 2.7% lead
but this last 7 days they seem to have messed up
7th May = Con 0.5% lead
And remember when the Tories got their only really significant lead in the full ELBOW, 0.4% on Easter Sunday? That week the Phone pollsters had the Tories 3.2% ahead.
Cameron and Osborne deserve huge credit for what is a fantastic, dramatic win for them.
The lefties on my Facebook page are flailing in lots of directions. Blaming the Tories for scaremongering, blaming the voters - lots of denial.
Labour face a problem similar to the Tories in 2001. I think they need to move to the centre. Their unrepentant voters on my FB page are demanding a move to the left.
I have thought for a long time that (many) Brits like to see contests wherein the vanquished lies bleeding at the victor's feet. And maybe put the boot in too? Simple. Will that happen in the upcoming EU referendum?
If you want possible Tory gains from Labour my advice is Southampton Itchen, Walsall N, Telford and Derbyshire NE are all better bets than Halifax.
Tip not followed :(_)
There was certainly a feedback loop in the campaign. The minority SNP-Labour meme benefited from it being a possibility and that damaged Labour. Not least in making the LD switchers go for what they know.
If a Tory majority had been predicted as likely, it would have carried less weight. It may have prompted Labour to take a different approach, which may have been more successful.
Blues 3-0 Others
On penalties
Game of Thrones' fans: with Miliband, Farage and Clegg all gone, some are describing it as the Ed Wedding.
Has a Tory MP been in BBC studio since Gove in the first few minutes of the coverage at 10pm? I am presuming they aren't putting people up, as Shapps have been on Sky in the past hour or so..
Are they over their shock yet?
There aren't really any LDs left - so only Labour friendly intv for the BBC.
Murnaghan was a dickhead to Grant Shapps - going on and on about blinking Wiki and Lynton Crosby not how they'd pulled it off. The media are so stupidly in the bubble.
Opinion polls, huh. What are they good for?
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
Say it again…
[/Edwin Starr Mode]
If Neil's around I owe him some money. Off to bed for a few hours now though...
The final week of polls was surely a case of quantity over quality, even among the phone pollsters.
Ipsos MORI on polling day got close to the Tories on 36%, but overstated Lab on 35%. ComRes the same day had Con 35%, Lab 34%. , as did online pollster Opinium.
But ComRes on the 5th, had Con 35%, Lab 32%, so not too bad a shout.
The Phone polls last week (week-ending 1st) were a bit better:
His Lordship had Con 36, Lab 30 on 26th April, so not bad at all!
ICM the same day had Con 35, Lab 32.
And Ipsos MORI had Con 35 Lab 30 on the 29th April
And even some of the online polls had Cons on 35:
BMG's maiden poll (27th) was Con 35, Lab 32
YouGov 27th April was Con 35, Lab 34
They repeated this on 29th April
And another 35 v. 34 with Opinium on 30th April.
We also need to know which pollster has done the poll. If he has different pollsters every week, then we are not being given a chance to know if we are comparing apples with apples each week.
There also needs to be a ruthless ripping out of anybody who can't confirm they are registered to vote by ALL pollsters.
I'll be announcing some Cabinet posts over the next couple of hours. To find out, keep an eye on this account.
Shame
'Conservative MP Glyn Davies - who held the Montgomeryshire seat in mid-Wales - admitted to being "rather pleased" with holding his 5,300 majority. However, one of those who ended up voting for him might not share his glee.
He wrote on Facebook: "One voter decided to draw a detailed representation of a penis instead of a cross in my box on one ballot paper. Amazingly, because it was neatly drawn within the confines of the box, the returning officer deemed it a valid vote. Not sure the artist meant it to count, but I am grateful. If I knew who it was, I would like to thank him (or her) personally."
He added later: "Seems it doesn't actually have to a cross. It's one of the funniest election incidents I've ever known of."'
Oh Britain, you're fantastic.
Get it into your heads that YOU are the weird fuckers.
The giggling fit of his Tory opponent, finding it almost impossible to get her head round she'd been elected this expense, was THE moment of the night.