politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improv
Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model.
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First!0
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Aha, a fellow insomniac!0
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That'll be fun!
LibDems 11% vote = 30 seats,
UKIP 14% vote = 0 seats!
OT - from Cameron In Kazakstan, Tim Shipman tweets: "Cameron gives long answer on what to do about Syria and doesn't mention arming rebels once. That gambit has crashed and burned."
Let's hope so.
Meanwhile still no MSM coverage in UK of Catholic Priest beheading - the Irish Independent does have it:
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/middle-east/shocking-video-shows-priest-and-another-man-being-beheaded-in-syria-29385254.html0 -
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I'm up getting ready for a day on the campaign trail. We've got a by-election in Gib on Thursday after the death of Housing Minister Charles Bruzon and it's all hands to the pumps.CarlottaVance said:Bedroom faces east - so a very early riser in Summer!
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(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned" / "Les Revenants" on Channel 4. After the first episode, I was worried that it was going to be a pointless contrived nonsense like "Lost" was, but I have watched all 4 (out of 8) episodes so far, and I like it all so far.0
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That was @foxinsoxuk and a good recommendation I agree; it's promising so far.JohnLoony said:(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned"... and I like it all so far.
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It's a little slow. I'm wondering what the theme is.JohnLoony said:(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned" / "Les Revenants" on Channel 4. After the first episode, I was worried that it was going to be a pointless contrived nonsense like "Lost" was, but I have watched all 4 (out of 8) episodes so far, and I like it all so far.
Best guess (guess not a spoiler) is that Les Revenants some how cause the underlying fissures in human relationships to come into the open. People become their worst selves.0 -
Did anyone else watch The Politicians Husband with David Tennant? It was only a very short run on BBC but very HoCards - I gather its coming back in the Autumn.0
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Electoral Calculus still doesn't include on it's Regional Forecast page an option for UKIP, which, surely, is likely to do better in the SE and East than elsewhere. The locals in those areas were somewhat better for them than the by-elections in the North and North-East.
I still think that they could pick up one or two seats. Whether Farage will be one of those who is elected is a different matter.0 -
O/T
From today's Daily Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html
Hurrah!0 -
- "... I’ve always been impressed by the way he has adapted it to changing political conditions."
One of the ways that Baxter has adapted to changing political conditions, in this case the dearth of Westminster VI polls conducted in Scotland, is by (whisper it) basing his Scottish projections on... lord forbid us for we have sinned... Scottish sub-samples of GB-wide opinion polls.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
Martin is a naughty boy.
Has there really only been ONE (!) Westminster VI poll in Scotland since February 2012? We used to have them at least monthly. Can anyone see if Martin has missed some polls from his table?0 -
Not according to the byelections!0
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With things finally starting to look a bit better on the economy, how much of a lead does Redward need right now to be out of hung parliament territory?
I very much suspect we're heading for another one with Labour having the most seats. So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.0 -
Assuming they have a reasonable majority between them it's hard to see the policy mix being substantially different from the current one, as far as anything that would affect the markets goes.Patrick said:So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
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It has a few curiosities! Why is the lake so significant? Why are the reurned so hungry? Why is the underpass such a site of murder?Charles said:
It's a little slow. I'm wondering what the theme is.JohnLoony said:(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned" / "Les Revenants" on Channel 4. After the first episode, I was worried that it was going to be a pointless contrived nonsense like "Lost" was, but I have watched all 4 (out of 8) episodes so far, and I like it all so far.
Best guess (guess not a spoiler) is that Les Revenants some how cause the underlying fissures in human relationships to come into the open. People become their worst selves.
It does seem that the returned are self aware, and have their own agendas, mostly to do with not letting people move on from grief.
It is slowmoving and brooding, compared with much hyperactive UK and USA TV, and so much more characterisation and atmosphere as a result.
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Do you believe Ed Balls?edmundintokyo said:
Assuming they have a reasonable majority between them it's hard to see the policy mix being substantially different from the current one, as far as anything that would affect the markets goes.Patrick said:So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
Do you feel lucky, punk?0 -
To be fair this week's episode moved things on a bit - last week's was a little boring after 4 weeks of scene setting...foxinsoxuk said:
It has a few curiosities! Why is the lake so significant? Why are the reurned so hungry? Why is the underpass such a site of murder?Charles said:
It's a little slow. I'm wondering what the theme is.JohnLoony said:(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned" / "Les Revenants" on Channel 4. After the first episode, I was worried that it was going to be a pointless contrived nonsense like "Lost" was, but I have watched all 4 (out of 8) episodes so far, and I like it all so far.
Best guess (guess not a spoiler) is that Les Revenants some how cause the underlying fissures in human relationships to come into the open. People become their worst selves.
It does seem that the returned are self aware, and have their own agendas, mostly to do with not letting people move on from grief.
It is slowmoving and brooding, compared with much hyperactive UK and USA TV, and so much more characterisation and atmosphere as a result.0 -
I'm surprised this has taken so long to get on the blocks - were the LDs against it? It's a tiddler in the grand scheme of things re taxation.
"Legislation to enshrine a tax break for married couples in law will be published this year after David Cameron bowed to pressure from Tory MPs.
The Prime Minister revealed yesterday that he will bring forward plans to recognise marriage in the tax system ‘very soon’.
Senior No 10 sources said details of the legislation will be spelt out in the autumn, 18 months earlier than expected.
The move was announced 48 hours before rebel MPs were preparing to back an amendment to the Finance Bill, calling for immediate marriage tax breaks.
Mr Cameron is set to make the policy the centrepiece of his speech to the Conservative Party conference in October, with the details included in the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on the economy in November.
That would mean the tax breaks are included in the next Finance Bill that would be enacted early next year. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2352078/Marriage-tax-break-Days-MPs-rebel-PM-pledges-new-law-year.html0 -
Plato said:
I'm surprised this has taken so long to get on the blocks - were the LDs against it? It's a tiddler in the grand scheme of things re taxation.
"Legislation to enshrine a tax break for married couples in law will be published this year after David Cameron bowed to pressure from Tory MPs.
The Prime Minister revealed yesterday that he will bring forward plans to recognise marriage in the tax system ‘very soon’.
Senior No 10 sources said details of the legislation will be spelt out in the autumn, 18 months earlier than expected.
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That sounds like The Killing in terms of pace/atmosphere - would that be fair?foxinsoxuk said:
It has a few curiosities! Why is the lake so significant? Why are the reurned so hungry? Why is the underpass such a site of murder?Charles said:
It's a little slow. I'm wondering what the theme is.JohnLoony said:(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned" / "Les Revenants" on Channel 4. After the first episode, I was worried that it was going to be a pointless contrived nonsense like "Lost" was, but I have watched all 4 (out of 8) episodes so far, and I like it all so far.
Best guess (guess not a spoiler) is that Les Revenants some how cause the underlying fissures in human relationships to come into the open. People become their worst selves.
It does seem that the returned are self aware, and have their own agendas, mostly to do with not letting people move on from grief.
It is slowmoving and brooding, compared with much hyperactive UK and USA TV, and so much more characterisation and atmosphere as a result.0 -
Hosepipe bans and other restrictions on the way if past form from our wonderful water companies is anything to go by. Severn Trent were issuing warnings a couple of months back.peter_from_putney said:O/T
From today's Daily Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10151145/Summer-is-finally-here-with-heatwave-until-late-July.html
Hurrah!
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Should we have a PB3 for extended TV and film based exchanges?0
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One for detailed discussions about trains and 80s pop music are surely more pressing ;^ )SouthamObserver said:Should we have a PB3 for extended TV and film based exchanges?
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Interesting - can you give us a rundown of current politics in Gib?GeoffM said:
I'm up getting ready for a day on the campaign trail. We've got a by-election in Gib on Thursday after the death of Housing Minister Charles Bruzon and it's all hands to the pumps.CarlottaVance said:Bedroom faces east - so a very early riser in Summer!
And welcome back to Me fromBrazil on the last thread - good to have a balanced view from the spot. Take care of yourself!
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I've been saying Labour will match Osborne's spending plans (except for some minor, symbolic differences) for a good two years now. It's been obvious that's what they're going to do since well before Ed Balls started saying it.Charles said:
Do you believe Ed Balls?edmundintokyo said:
Assuming they have a reasonable majority between them it's hard to see the policy mix being substantially different from the current one, as far as anything that would affect the markets goes.Patrick said:So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
Do you feel lucky, punk?0 -
I did not see The Killing. I do not watch much TV generally, it was my son who put me onto it. He is interested in Zombie culture. The returned are a different sort of undead to traditional zombies though, not vampires or ghosts either.Plato said:
That sounds like The Killing in terms of pace/atmosphere - would that be fair?foxinsoxuk said:
It has a few curiosities! Why is the lake so significant? Why are the reurned so hungry? Why is the underpass such a site of murder?Charles said:
It's a little slow. I'm wondering what the theme is.JohnLoony said:(OT) Somebody mentioned "The Returned" / "Les Revenants" on Channel 4. After the first episode, I was worried that it was going to be a pointless contrived nonsense like "Lost" was, but I have watched all 4 (out of 8) episodes so far, and I like it all so far.
Best guess (guess not a spoiler) is that Les Revenants some how cause the underlying fissures in human relationships to come into the open. People become their worst selves.
It does seem that the returned are self aware, and have their own agendas, mostly to do with not letting people move on from grief.
It is slowmoving and brooding, compared with much hyperactive UK and USA TV, and so much more characterisation and atmosphere as a result.0 -
So the "plans" and the legislation might be pre-GE, but will the payment of this unfunded tax cut?DecrepitJohnL said:Plato said:I'm surprised this has taken so long to get on the blocks - were the LDs against it? It's a tiddler in the grand scheme of things re taxation.
"Legislation to enshrine a tax break for married couples in law will be published this year after David Cameron bowed to pressure from Tory MPs.
The Prime Minister revealed yesterday that he will bring forward plans to recognise marriage in the tax system ‘very soon’.
Senior No 10 sources said details of the legislation will be spelt out in the autumn, 18 months earlier than expected.
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As pressing, I'd say. Maybe a PB3 for sundries. People could hop over once it becomes apparent a non-politics-based conversation is going to go on for a while. Off topic comments and exchanges are an essential part of the mix, but when they threaten to takeover a thread they lose their lustre.Plato said:
One for detailed discussions about trains and 80s pop music are surely more pressing ;^ )SouthamObserver said:Should we have a PB3 for extended TV and film based exchanges?
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Good morning, everyone.
I don't watch much TV, but The Walking Dead season 3 has finally arrived on Channel 5 (Saturday, 11pm). Whilst I enjoyed the first episode it was 95% hitting zombies in the face with a machete, and a teensy bit more plot would go down well.
The Last Of Us (PS3 exclusive videogame with the infected as villains [infected = fungal zombies]) it was, it must be said, rather more intense. Different media, but an interesting comparison to make.0 -
Gladly! I'm headed out of the door now but will do a few lines this evening. The late Minister's government is (as you will know) a long standing formal partnership between the Socialist Labour Party (GSLP) and the Liberals - both of whom are affiliated with their UK namesakes. So there's something in it here to interest most UK political watchers.NickPalmer said:Interesting - can you give us a rundown of current politics in Gib?
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It has indeed. It would impossible for Labour to come in and immediately change the fiscal course. The first step would be to make better choices than Osborne within the overall framework he has established, before then seeking to do a lot more to encourage growth. That's not accepting the Tory ideology of austerity, but being realistic about what the situation will be should Labour return to power.edmundintokyo said:
I've been saying Labour will match Osborne's spending plans (except for some minor, symbolic differences) for a good two years now. It's been obvious that's what they're going to do since well before Ed Balls started saying it.Charles said:
Do you believe Ed Balls?edmundintokyo said:
Assuming they have a reasonable majority between them it's hard to see the policy mix being substantially different from the current one, as far as anything that would affect the markets goes.Patrick said:So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
Do you feel lucky, punk?
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I like the TV Film stuff - its a recommendation tool - People who are on PB like x or y. As I like PB people I might like their TV too. You can only have so much of Tim, Charles, Fox, Avery etc shouting at each other on a daily basis0
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Great to see a positive story about the Afghan Army taking out a wannabe suicide bomber. I can't recall reading a similar story or a scene in a movie like it - the adrenaline must have been immense. Hopefully we can exit this theatre sooner rather than later.
"Covered from head to foot in padded protective gear, but with his extremities still dangerously exposed, this Afghan bomb disposal expert took his life in his hands to defuse this suicide bomber's explosive vest.
Security forces captured the would-be martyr before he blew himself up in Jalalabad earlier today, hog-tying the man to stop him detonating the device.
But before the suspected terrorist could be taken in for interrogation, the bomb squad had to be called in for the risky job of disarming the bomb strapped across his chest
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2352009/The-real-Hurt-Locker-Brave-Afghan-soldier-defuses-suicide-vest-terrorist-wearing-it.html#ixzz2Xm3JwMsc
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tim said:DecrepitJohnL said:Plato said:
I'm surprised this has taken so long to get on the blocks - were the LDs against it? It's a tiddler in the grand scheme of things re taxation.
"Legislation to enshrine a tax break for married couples in law will be published this year after David Cameron bowed to pressure from Tory MPs.
The Prime Minister revealed yesterday that he will bring forward plans to recognise marriage in the tax system ‘very soon’.
Senior No 10 sources said details of the legislation will be spelt out in the autumn, 18 months earlier than expected.
Was it supposed to be launched during the election campaign so Date Night Dave could go on about Samantha a lot in the month before the election?
Whoops he's gone off prematurely
Emily Ashton @elashton
Cameron tells students at a Kazakhstan university about wife Sam: 'I haven't seen her for several days now & I miss her desperately'
Still £2.88 a week will make all the difference.
No wonder the Treasury has been trying to stop Dave's posturing.
It's about sending a signal that the state is supportive of committed relationships (regardless of gender). It's not the amount that is important, it's the signal.0 -
SO, there's a pretty good community on PB. Mainly interested in politics, but one of its is the ability to diverge into other topics for a friendly chat.SouthamObserver said:Should we have a PB3 for extended TV and film based exchanges?
You're sounding a bit like the bearded LibDem in the corner of the pub saying 'time to get back to the agenda for the garden sub-committee meeting next week'0 -
Good morning all. The BBC has a good piece on the EU's waning popularity in Spain:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23064490
It has a coda that shows the benefits of freedom of movement:
"Back on the beach, Maria Dolores is cutting a piece of ham to offer to the couple of scraggy dogs, which are skulking under the picnic table.
One of them, smelling the meat, jumps up quickly, sending a gritty cloud of grey sand onto Jose's feet. He curses irritably and Maria tuts at him reproachfully.
"They are our children's dogs," she explains. "Both our boys have gone to England to find jobs - they are working there as waiters now.
"When I speak to my sons on the phone I can hear they're homesick but of course they can't come back here because there's nothing for them in Spain." "0 -
Disagree. It's been obvious that's what they will say they are going to do.edmundintokyo said:
I've been saying Labour will match Osborne's spending plans (except for some minor, symbolic differences) for a good two years now. It's been obvious that's what they're going to do since well before Ed Balls started saying it.Charles said:
Do you believe Ed Balls?edmundintokyo said:
Assuming they have a reasonable majority between them it's hard to see the policy mix being substantially different from the current one, as far as anything that would affect the markets goes.Patrick said:So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
Do you feel lucky, punk?
I'm not sure I trust Ed Balls not to lie to me.0 -
There is a curiously precise mirror image in this table with the results of the last election. So the tories average is within 0.2% of what Labour got then (the tories vote has certainly been higher more recently) and Labour are 0.8% away from what the tories got.
On Baxter's model this gives the tories 31 seats less than Labour got and Labour 55 seats more, an overall difference of 86 seats despite the discrepancy being in Labour's favour by a net 0.6%.
Although this is a large difference it is considerably smaller than the absurd result in the 2005 election where a lead of 2.8% gave Labour a very comfortable majority: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
Presumably the difference is coming from the reduction in the Lib Dem vote helping the tories in terms of seats with many of the Lib Dem losses falling to them. If that is right then returnees from Labour to the Lib Dems will not be an unmixed blessing for the tories.0 -
I wonder whether the UK gets a high number/proportion of the intra EU inward migration.antifrank said:Good morning all. The BBC has a good piece on the EU's waning popularity in Spain:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23064490
It has a coda that shows the benefits of freedom of movement:
"Back on the beach, Maria Dolores is cutting a piece of ham to offer to the couple of scraggy dogs, which are skulking under the picnic table.
One of them, smelling the meat, jumps up quickly, sending a gritty cloud of grey sand onto Jose's feet. He curses irritably and Maria tuts at him reproachfully.
"They are our children's dogs," she explains. "Both our boys have gone to England to find jobs - they are working there as waiters now.
"When I speak to my sons on the phone I can hear they're homesick but of course they can't come back here because there's nothing for them in Spain." "
You can imagine the prosperous economies (let's say Germany, Netherlands, Scandi and the UK) getting the bulk of the total immigration, but does language mean that UK gets a disproportionate share of this?
Might that, in part, account for different views?0 -
Good morning
Ever the tricky and slippery one, Cammo following Nixons stunts:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10151655/EU-referendum-law-hits-trouble.html
Only UKIP will give an in/out referendum on the EU, without the if's and but's.0 -
Entirely depends *where* those returnees are.DavidL said:There is a curiously precise mirror image in this table with the results of the last election. So the tories average is within 0.2% of what Labour got then (the tories vote has certainly been higher more recently) and Labour are 0.8% away from what the tories got.
On Baxter's model this gives the tories 31 seats less than Labour got and Labour 55 seats more, an overall difference of 86 seats despite the discrepancy being in Labour's favour by a net 0.6%.
Although this is a large difference it is considerably smaller than the absurd result in the 2005 election where a lead of 2.8% gave Labour a very comfortable majority: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
Presumably the difference is coming from the reduction in the Lib Dem vote helping the tories in terms of seats with many of the Lib Dem losses falling to them. If that is right then returnees from Labour to the Lib Dems will not be an unmixed blessing for the tories.
OGH, for instance, believes that the LD voters in LD/Con marginals in the SE are really anti-Tory and will return to the LD, while in the Northern LD/Lab seats they will vote Labour.
I'm not convinced, but how this splits will have a massive impact on the result0 -
Latest ARSE 2015 GE Projection - Exclusive to PB.
Release Time - 0900hrs BST 01 July 130 -
As a demographic - PBers are definitely well represented by the professions, scientists/maths sorts, those with media, merchant banking and defence expertise and even our own man who checked out Saddam's weapons as an investigator. There are also lots of cricket nuts who take over threads entirely at times - and detailed discussions about trains of course...JohnWheatley said:I like the TV Film stuff - its a recommendation tool - People who are on PB like x or y. As I like PB people I might like their TV too. You can only have so much of Tim, Charles, Fox, Avery etc shouting at each other on a daily basis
I find the range of recommendations really interesting - and I've watched shows that I'd never have considered/heard of as a result. If it adds a handful of posts to a thread every once in a while - what's the big deal?0 -
F1: don't forget to visit the post-race analysis thread of the British Grand Prix here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html
I'll put up the early discussion thread for Germany tomorrow.0 -
Suggestion that coppers could lose at least part of their pensions if they resign whilst being investigated for serious msiconduct (prior to findings emerging, thus preventing them being fired):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-231204550 -
The 2005 result was an absolute shocker with Labour returned with the lowest share of the popular vote in UK history, and comfortably returned at that. I would like to think that the incredible bias in those results would remain a unique event but Labour and the Lib Dem's success in keeping the existing boundaries means that if anything the next election could be even more disproportionate.Charles said:
Entirely depends *where* those returnees are.DavidL said:There is a curiously precise mirror image in this table with the results of the last election. So the tories average is within 0.2% of what Labour got then (the tories vote has certainly been higher more recently) and Labour are 0.8% away from what the tories got.
On Baxter's model this gives the tories 31 seats less than Labour got and Labour 55 seats more, an overall difference of 86 seats despite the discrepancy being in Labour's favour by a net 0.6%.
Although this is a large difference it is considerably smaller than the absurd result in the 2005 election where a lead of 2.8% gave Labour a very comfortable majority: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005
Presumably the difference is coming from the reduction in the Lib Dem vote helping the tories in terms of seats with many of the Lib Dem losses falling to them. If that is right then returnees from Labour to the Lib Dems will not be an unmixed blessing for the tories.
OGH, for instance, believes that the LD voters in LD/Con marginals in the SE are really anti-Tory and will return to the LD, while in the Northern LD/Lab seats they will vote Labour.
I'm not convinced, but how this splits will have a massive impact on the result
Baxter is suggesting not but I am not sure on what basis.
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Encouraging news for grads http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-23098982
Graduate vacancies at Britain's "top" employers are at their highest since 2008, new research suggests.
Britain's 100 "leading employers" have 4.6% more jobs for new graduates than in 2012, High Fliers Research said. But its study of the 2013 graduate market said there wer still an average 46 applicants for each position.
Last month the Higher Education Statistics Agency said it believed 10% of UK students remained unemployed six months after graduating in 2012.
The latest study suggests that the rise in vacancies for graduates is higher than expected. Earlier this year, the same group of employers predicted that graduate vacancies would increase by 2.7%.
The data is based on responses from the 100 organisations which a poll of 18,000 final year students at 30 selected universities identified as offering the best career opportunities...
Changes in graduate job vacancies
2007-8 Down 6.7%
2008-9 Down 17.8%
2009-10 Up 12.6%
2010-11 Up 2.8%
2011-12 Down 0.9%
2012-13 Up 4.6%
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Not quite my dear old kipper.MikeK said:Good morning
Ever the tricky and slippery one, Cammo following Nixons stunts:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10151655/EU-referendum-law-hits-trouble.html
Only UKIP will give an in/out referendum on the EU, without the if's and but's.
The "if" is a mighty if Ukip get a few hundred MP's or so
And the "but" is but the electorate haven't completely lost its collective marbles yet !!
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Then might it have been wiser not to oppose every single cut? That behaviour has given plenty of ammunition to the Tories/LibDems:edmundintokyo said:
It's been obvious that's what they're going to do since well before Ed Balls started saying it.Charles said:
Do you believe Ed Balls?edmundintokyo said:
Assuming they have a reasonable majority between them it's hard to see the policy mix being substantially different from the current one, as far as anything that would affect the markets goes.Patrick said:So a minority Labour adminsitration or a coalition with Clegg? Eek! The markets will love that. Not.
Do you feel lucky, punk?
"Nick Clegg, starting a new schedule of monthly press conferences on Monday, will step up his efforts to win back former Liberal Democrats who have defected to Labour.
Referring to Labour's recent decision to take government spending plans for 2015-16 as its starting point, Clegg will claim that Labour "has gone from taking no position on the economy to every position".
He is hopeful that after three years of Labour criticism over accepting Tory austerity, he can now go on the front foot and win back his disilusioned former supporters."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jun/30/labour-falkirk-union-row-kim-howells
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I hope Pirelli keep out of the condom business. That race yesterday was a, (very dangerous to the drivers), farce.Morris_Dancer said:F1: don't forget to visit the post-race analysis thread of the British Grand Prix here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html
I'll put up the early discussion thread for Germany tomorrow.
On topic, in 2015, if the Lib Dems get a bunch of seats on a % share of two thirds or less of the UKIP share, who then get none, expect the immediate collapse of FPTP. Especially after the result of next years Euros where the Lib Dems will be trounced by everybody, and probably not get a third of the votes of UKIP. The demands for PR at Generals will be deafening. The Mail, Telegraph and other right wing outlets will be exploding with furious anger!!! (Readerships will be going nuts!)
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Any PBer got an informed view on the Beeb's "White Queen" that Mrs Jack W has taped ?0
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Charles,
I think the notably more skeptical view of the EU that we have in the UK is merely a reflection of our history. We have been physically separated from continental Europe for a long time, safe in our island and ruler of the waves.
Europe's historical strength lies in its chronic disunity. Anytime one king or country became oppressive its people could just move - and the constant competition forced all Europe to stay up with market and technological developments. Internal competition between cultures within Europe enabled Europe to outcompete the rest of the world for centuries.
But whenever one European country tried to get to big for its boots and stage a takeover the others would resist. Thre was always a Westphalian balance of power and our role was rightly described as 'the balancer of the balance'. Every would-be European emperor has failed as a result of us leading the anti gang - from Spain and the Armada, through Napoleon to WW2. We like them competing evenly as it suits our national interest and gives us a pivotal role in the power plays of Europe.
It never ever has been and never ever will be in the UK's interest to see a hegemonic power arise in continental Europe. I think we know this deep in our waters. We have a long and deep seated cultural aversion to it.0 -
I'm not totally au fait with the pensions/discipline process - but it seems to be an all-or-nothing sanction if you're fired whilst still serving - which upsets many on both sides of the argument [and can lead to others covering up for colleagues close to the end of their service].Morris_Dancer said:Suggestion that coppers could lose at least part of their pensions if they resign whilst being investigated for serious msiconduct (prior to findings emerging, thus preventing them being fired):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23120455
Knowing you can resign before 30yrs and get everything to date, or after 30yrs and the whole lot regardless of what you may be ducking charge wise is very contentious. To lose the whole thing seems to me very punitive and unfair.
Officers are fined a few days worth of pay if they screw up which often seems incredibly lenient, they are rarely sacked or sanctioned by the IPCC - its a dog's breakfast that needs sensible reform, not revenge by injured parties grabbing the headlines.0 -
I wouldn't be too sure. FPTP still favours the parties of the majority parties - and I'm not sure how keen UKIP supporters are for "foreign" (sic) voting systems.davidthecon said:
expect the immediate collapse of FPTP.Morris_Dancer said:F1: don't forget to visit the post-race analysis thread of the British Grand Prix here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html
I'll put up the early discussion thread for Germany tomorrow.
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Here's the IMDb reviews - http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2372220/reviews?ref_=tt_ov_rt, it gets a 7.2 - they're a pretty generous lot so that's on the edge of good viewing.JackW said:Any PBer got an informed view on the Beeb's "White Queen" that Mrs Jack W has taped ?
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I haven't frequented the DT's comments for a while - but it'd be interesting to hear from PB's resident Kippers how they feel about slipping back in the polls after the heady results at LE2013.CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't be too sure. FPTP still favours the parties of the majority parties - and I'm not sure how keen UKIP supporters are for "foreign" (sic) voting systems.davidthecon said:
expect the immediate collapse of FPTP.Morris_Dancer said:F1: don't forget to visit the post-race analysis thread of the British Grand Prix here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html
I'll put up the early discussion thread for Germany tomorrow.0 -
Thanks Plato.
BTW I was in Berkhamsted recently and a gift shop was selling a pleasant range of pussy mugs. I thought of you.0 -
I see those who are "challenged" amongst us are asking Junior to set up new sites for special-interests. I imagine Wee Timmiy and his trolls are particularly looking forward to a shopping channel: Imagine all the discussions about Morrisons and Greggs they could have amongst themselves....0
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Mr. Con, I sympathise with Pirelli. They were given a specific direction to make increasingly soft/faster-to-degrade tyres to promote more pit stops and on-track overtaking. They also wanted to alter the tyres but this was vetoed by the teams (some would've probably been disadvantaged by the change).
That said, the current tyre clearly isn't good enough. It may be that the particular kerbs of Silverstone were involved, so that may not be an issue elsewhere. The next race is the coming weekend (Germany), so there's not much time to change things.0 -
The White Queen: I recall Mr. T tweeting about how tedious compared to The Tudors he found it. Not my sort of thing, to be honest. Far too modern.0
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Is Labour offering an EU ref? I thought not, but then I seem to recall a change of heart - can anyone confirm their current position?0
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I enjoyed "The Tudors" even allowing for the historical cobblers. I recently viewed "I Claudius" again. A great series.Morris_Dancer said:The White Queen: I recall Mr. T tweeting about how tedious compared to The Tudors he found it. Not my sort of thing, to be honest. Far too modern.
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Mr. W, I, Claudius is fantastic, but seeing Brian Blessed without a beard and Patrick Stewart with hair is most odd.0
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OT Morris Dancer. I left this for you yesterday. THIS is how Pirelli should have tested their tyres. (One I shot earlier)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BEfJrZ5IrvU0 -
Er, that the state values marriage... and sympathises with a woman who has been widowed twice by the age of 60. Have a heart, tim.tim said:@Charles
And what signal do you think giving £2.88 a week to a 60 year old getting married for the third time while withholding it from a couple in their thirties who have two young children sends out as matter of interest?
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"Police officers who commit serious misconduct should have their pensions docked, a group of MPs has said."Morris_Dancer said:Suggestion that coppers could lose at least part of their pensions if they resign whilst being investigated for serious msiconduct (prior to findings emerging, thus preventing them being fired):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23120455
I wonder if this is the same group of MPs angling for a 15 per cent payrise for, erm, oh yes: MPs. We're all in it together.
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Mr. Roger, that's certainly a novel suggestion. I thought from the screenshot prior to starting the video it might be a Saab ad.0
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PB EXCLUSIVE **** PB EXCLUSIVE **** PB EXCLUSIVE **** PB EXCLUSIVE ****
Latest ARSE 2015 General Election Projection :
Con 296 .. Lab 270 .. LibDem 44 .. SNP 12 .. PC 3 .. Ukip 3 .. NI 18 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 1 .. Speaker 1
No Overall Control - Conservatives 30 seats short of a majority.
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OMG - I forgot about Mr Stewart with hair - very strange indeed. I still think Livia is the ultimate female baddy. I read the Robert Graves book after seeing the series first as a little kid and was blown away by it - read it again recently and the characters are as sharply defined as any I can think of. Superb stuff.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, I, Claudius is fantastic, but seeing Brian Blessed without a beard and Patrick Stewart with hair is most odd.
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FPT..To tim (MODERATED)the figure of 203499 was clearly stated to be the cost over four years, why therefore would I think it was for one year..you appear to think it is worth every penny for the idiots who have tattoos put on and then removed at taxpayers expense ..you certainly live up to your name0
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A slight shiver runs through me when Mrs Jack W buys figs !!!!!!!!!!!!!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, I, Claudius is fantastic, but seeing Brian Blessed without a beard and Patrick Stewart with hair is most odd.
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Ah - that may explain my uncertainly here - I'm quite lost as to what Labour are in favour of, no matter how many *speeches of a lifetime* EdM makes, it changes within 24hrs. Balls saying he'd borrow more directly contradicted EdM's stance the day before...Scott_P said:
I believe the official position isPlato said:Is Labour offering an EU ref? I thought not, but then I seem to recall a change of heart - can anyone confirm their current position?
yeah, but, no, but, maybe...
I'm not after iron discipline - just a speck of consistency!0 -
Miss Plato, indeed, Livia's probably my favourite character.
Mr. W, just pick your own figs. What could possibly go wrong?0 -
0
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OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?0
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How much should our MPs get paid?DecrepitJohnL said:
"Police officers who commit serious misconduct should have their pensions docked, a group of MPs has said."Morris_Dancer said:Suggestion that coppers could lose at least part of their pensions if they resign whilst being investigated for serious msiconduct (prior to findings emerging, thus preventing them being fired):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23120455
I wonder if this is the same group of MPs angling for a 15 per cent payrise for, erm, oh yes: MPs. We're all in it together.0 -
If its just a signal why has Date Night waited until the election run up.tim said:
But given that he's going to find the money I guess we can take the rest o his austerity nonsense with a pinch of salt.
He's waited until the election run up (although we are still more than 2 years out) because [a] the LibDems are opposed - they have a carve out in the coalition agreement and [b] the Tories made other firm commitments such as increasing the personal allowance which have absorbed the money available for tax cuts.tim said:@Charles
And what signal do you think giving £2.88 a week to a 60 year old getting married for the third time while withholding it from a couple in their thirties who have two young children sends out as matter of interest?
What signal does it send: that marriage is a good thing. Marriage isn't just about procreation, it's also for mutual comfort and support. In the case of the older couple, loneliness is one of the worst challenges that retired people face - being married helps with that (one hopes!)0 -
@Morris_Dancer
Frankie Howerd's "Lurcio" is a favourite character .... am I getting confused ?!?! .... Woe, woe and thrice woe !!0 -
I've really enjoyed Da Vinci's Demons - I've no idea how inaccurate it is historically - but its sumptuously shot, the costumes and sets are great and the characters dastardly/witty. It Shakespeare in Love meets Game of Thrones.JackW said:
I enjoyed "The Tudors" even allowing for the historical cobblers. I recently viewed "I Claudius" again. A great series.Morris_Dancer said:The White Queen: I recall Mr. T tweeting about how tedious compared to The Tudors he found it. Not my sort of thing, to be honest. Far too modern.
The US networks are walking all over us in this dept.0 -
That can't be right. The water companies were privatised -- freed from the dead hand of the state. Scares about hosepipe bans are just lefty propaganda.SouthamObserver said:
Hosepipe bans and other restrictions on the way if past form from our wonderful water companies is anything to go by. Severn Trent were issuing warnings a couple of months back.
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I try not to read them too much but I believe it's the fault of the MSM for ignoring them.Plato said:
I haven't frequented the DT's comments for a while - but it'd be interesting to hear from PB's resident Kippers how they feel about slipping back in the polls after the heady results at LE2013.CarlottaVance said:
I wouldn't be too sure. FPTP still favours the parties of the majority parties - and I'm not sure how keen UKIP supporters are for "foreign" (sic) voting systems.davidthecon said:
expect the immediate collapse of FPTP.Morris_Dancer said:F1: don't forget to visit the post-race analysis thread of the British Grand Prix here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/great-britain-post-race-analysis.html
I'll put up the early discussion thread for Germany tomorrow.0 -
The BBC has a curious interest in things that appear to be local news stories - the case of Mr Zimmerman who shot a black youth got acres of coverage - why I have no idea. White man shoots black kid whilst doing neighbourhood watch patrol isn't exactly Rodney King/LA riots territory.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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While that's a tragic story, and certainly worthy of some news coverage, it's completely wrong to make it the main news story in the UK (BBC Breakfast News also led with it). It's very poor judgement by the BBC.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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By PB shorn of discussions about things like this will be hair today, gone tomorrow. It'd never Rogaine it's widow's peak - the crowning glory would have retreated and long-term prognosis would become patchyJackW said:@Morris_Dancer and @Plato
Careful my lovelies discussing hair topics on PB is fraught with danger !!0 -
If you followed the US news you'd realise that there was a lot more to the story than that. AIUI, Zimmerman attacked an unarmed kid on the basis of unfounded suspicion. And shot him. That's a story.Plato said:
The BBC has a curious interest in things that appear to be local news stories - the case of Mr Zimmerman who shot a black youth got acres of coverage - why I have no idea. White man shoots black kid whilst doing neighbourhood watch patrol isn't exactly Rodney King/LA riots territory.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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Isn't that the bald truth.Charles said:
By PB shorn of discussions about things like this will be hair today, gone tomorrow. It'd never Rogaine it's widow's peak - the crowning glory would have retreated and long-term prognosis would become patchyJackW said:@Morris_Dancer and @Plato
Careful my lovelies discussing hair topics on PB is fraught with danger !!
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The slippage in coverage for UKIP is disappointing. Part of that is explained by the fact that the more sensible UKIP is, the less the MSM want to hear about us, or report on anything we say.
This will be familiar to to the LDs.
UKIP are in favour of ditching FPTP. We voted, albeit unenthusiastically, for AV. But Clegg didn't want our support, and in any event, we agreed with the assessment that it was a 'miserable little compromise'.0 -
tim said:Charles said:
If its just a signal why has Date Night waited until the election run up.tim said:
But given that he's going to find the money I guess we can take the rest o his austerity nonsense with a pinch of salt.
He's waited until the election run up (although we are still more than 2 years out) because [a] the LibDems are opposed - they have a carve out in the coalition agreement and [b] the Tories made other firm commitments such as increasing the personal allowance which have absorbed the money available for tax cuts.tim said:@Charles
And what signal do you think giving £2.88 a week to a 60 year old getting married for the third time while withholding it from a couple in their thirties who have two young children sends out as matter of interest?
What signal does it send: that marriage is a good thing. Marriage isn't just about procreation, it's also for mutual comfort and support. In the case of the older couple, loneliness is one of the worst challenges that retired people face - being married helps with that (one hopes!)
a.The Lib Dem position is exactly the same as it has been all parliament.
b.The public finances are in a much worse state than the Tories thought they were going to be.
c.What has loneliness got to do with the state subsidising a particular living arrangement, or do you genuinely think a 60 year old on their third marriage is more in need of financial support and moral buttressing than a couple in their thirties with two kids?
a. Yes. That's why it hasn't been pushed yet - I imagine he sees it as a political dividing line at the election.
b. Yes, but when things are worse you need to prioritise. The Tories chose to prioritise keeping their promises
c. The state subsidises or penalises plenty of things. Smoking has negative externalities - therefore tax it. Marriage has positive externalities - support it. It's not about welfare, it's about signals.0 -
I'm well aware of the story - white man shoots black man who isn't carrying, what does this have to do with the UK news? If it was black man shoots unarmed white man, it'd never be on the telly here.Charles said:
If you followed the US news you'd realise that there was a lot more to the story than that. AIUI, Zimmerman attacked an unarmed kid on the basis of unfounded suspicion. And shot him. That's a story.Plato said:
The BBC has a curious interest in things that appear to be local news stories - the case of Mr Zimmerman who shot a black youth got acres of coverage - why I have no idea. White man shoots black kid whilst doing neighbourhood watch patrol isn't exactly Rodney King/LA riots territory.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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I think the BBC wants to have the dominant news website in the world , perhaps it already does. The US is a very important source of visitors for it.Plato said:
The BBC has a curious interest in things that appear to be local news stories - the case of Mr Zimmerman who shot a black youth got acres of coverage - why I have no idea. White man shoots black kid whilst doing neighbourhood watch patrol isn't exactly Rodney King/LA riots territory.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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Seriously? 19 out of a team of 20 firefighters in a specialist unit die fighting this blaze and that doesn't merit front page placement? In just about any country?antifrank said:
While that's a tragic story, and certainly worthy of some news coverage, it's completely wrong to make it the main news story in the UK (BBC Breakfast News also led with it). It's very poor judgement by the BBC.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
Disagree.0 -
Moderation in all things.JackW said:Careful my lovelies discussing hair topics on PB is fraught with danger !!
Oops, that's a no-no as well.
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Thanks for that - after the highs of the LEs it must be a bit dispiriting to be down a tad. Still, hopefully it'll provide some thinking space for your party to decide how to move forward - get attention without the fruitcakers grabbing unwanted attention.david_kendrick1 said:The slippage in coverage for UKIP is disappointing. Part of that is explained by the fact that the more sensible UKIP is, the less the MSM want to hear about us, or report on anything we say.
This will be familiar to to the LDs.
UKIP are in favour of ditching FPTP. We voted, albeit unenthusiastically, for AV. But Clegg didn't want our support, and in any event, we agreed with the assessment that it was a 'miserable little compromise'.0 -
The fact that we live in a global society? That it's a human interest story? That the BBC gets to feel morally superior to poor white Americans?Plato said:
I'm well aware of the story - white man shoots black man who isn't carrying, what does this have to do with the UK news? If it was black man shoots unarmed white man, it'd never be on the telly here.Charles said:
If you followed the US news you'd realise that there was a lot more to the story than that. AIUI, Zimmerman attacked an unarmed kid on the basis of unfounded suspicion. And shot him. That's a story.Plato said:
The BBC has a curious interest in things that appear to be local news stories - the case of Mr Zimmerman who shot a black youth got acres of coverage - why I have no idea. White man shoots black kid whilst doing neighbourhood watch patrol isn't exactly Rodney King/LA riots territory.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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George Osborne, arguably our finest Chancellor since Alistair Darling, believes public sector workers like MPs should be limited to 1 per cent rises (or in real terms, a cut).JosiasJessop said:
How much should our MPs get paid?0 -
Moderation in all things except PB moderation.Theuniondivvie said:
Moderation in all things.JackW said:Careful my lovelies discussing hair topics on PB is fraught with danger !!
Oops, that's a no-no as well.
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I suspect that some BBCers are looking for the next Rodney King and see this as it - frankly, I disagree.Charles said:
The fact that we live in a global society? That it's a human interest story? That the BBC gets to feel morally superior to poor white Americans?Plato said:
I'm well aware of the story - white man shoots black man who isn't carrying, what does this have to do with the UK news? If it was black man shoots unarmed white man, it'd never be on the telly here.Charles said:
If you followed the US news you'd realise that there was a lot more to the story than that. AIUI, Zimmerman attacked an unarmed kid on the basis of unfounded suspicion. And shot him. That's a story.Plato said:
The BBC has a curious interest in things that appear to be local news stories - the case of Mr Zimmerman who shot a black youth got acres of coverage - why I have no idea. White man shoots black kid whilst doing neighbourhood watch patrol isn't exactly Rodney King/LA riots territory.DecrepitJohnL said:OT -- the BBC's website leads on an American domestic story -- the tragic deaths of American firefighters. Has July given the BBC a new crop of graduate editors taking their cue from American news broadcasts?
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