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I'm curious what you think. I don't think it'll change my mind but its informing to know what others think and that's the only reason I read these comments - not to try and change someone's mind!isam said:
It doesn't matter what I think really does it if you have made your mind up?Philip_Thompson said:
UKIP have one guaranteed seat, which is guaranteed because Carswell crossed to them (Carswell would be retaining it if he'd stayed Con).isam said:I've lost my bank card and have no online betting accounts, this could be a good thing
Ukip over 2.5 seats 10/11 Betfred
Insane
Other than Carswell which seats do you think are "nailed on" UKIP and which do you think are "probable" or "possible"?
Clacton certain. Thurrock probable. Thanet S and Rochester and Strood possible coin tosses. Others I don't see happening.
2.5 sounds about right. No I don't want another bet, we've already got one ;-)
Oh blimey what is our bet?
The bets just a fiver charity one, on a 4.5 line.isam said:
Oky dokePhilip_Thompson said:
I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?isam said:At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats
Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?
Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.0 -
Which country ?malcolmg said:
Just my personal opinion , if she is going to just stick with dogma to the detriment of the country then they will be no better than the rubbish they are replacing. It may be a vain hope but I am hoping for better things from them and that they will bite the bullet and put the country first and not go for self interest.surbiton said:
Would that not create a world record in deception ? Sturgeon has said that they will vote down a Tory Queen's speech - with goodies for Scotland or not !malcolmg said:
I would hope they would vote for anything that is in Scotland's interests. I would hope they are better than just ideology and would do what was right for Scotland regardless of who was promoting it. Doing what labour do as a matter of course would be a big mistake.CarlottaVance said:
So you think they might vote for a Tory's Queen's Speech stuffed with goodies for Scotland?malcolmg said:
SNP are not as stupid and blinkered as you thoughCarlottaVance said:
One interesting wrinkle might be if the SNP vote to bring down a Tory minority govt Queen's speech which had lots of goodies for Scotland.....that could be hung around their necks for decades......'more interested in Socialism than Scotland'.......SouthamObserver said:hamiltonace said:
Can we really see the SNP taking down a Labour minority government a year before the next Scottish election? Ed Milliband will not do a deal with the SNP as he does not need to do one.SouthamObserver said:Life_ina_market_town said:
Will the SNP really vote to express confidence in a government intent on pursuing "austerity" and renewing Trident (both which they have been campaigning vociferously against in North Britain)? It must be doubted. The best that can be hoped for Labour is that they will abstain. The Daily Mail report that Ms Sturgeon has said Miliband will not get a budget through the House of Commons unless "he compromises".Pulpstar said:Not if it means the speech failing to get through. Which it probably will, so they won't abstain.
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Just noticed that Saudi Arabia was invaded overnight...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32537543
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Yes. If you accept the premise that the polls are neck and neck and have been for a while then it is plausible.currystar said:
Is that realistic?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not since last Summer.currystar said:Am i right in thinking that the tories have never been ahead with Populus?
The one caveat, Populus had a methodology change earlier on this year.
Which went from being very unfavourable to UKIP to very favourable for UKIP.
Had they stuck with their original methodology then the Tories probably would have seen the occasional lead with Populus this year.0 -
Your usual Little Englander crap, why do you not complain about even bigger number spent on London. Scotland is a huge part of the UK , ie for dummies there are lots of remote areas. We also contribute far more. You need to get out more.Philip_Thompson said:
You think having 20% more spent on Scots than the English is unfair?malcolmg said:
Would be the best thing that could happen, once the London parties cut that and make the deal even more unfair to Scotland the game is over.CarlottaVance said:What are the chances 'Barnett Formula' figures prominently in a second election?
If we had the same per capita spent on Newcastle as Glasgow what would be unfair about that?0 -
Ah ok I remember now, well you are ahead of the game there!Philip_Thompson said:
I'm curious what you think. I don't think it'll change my mind but its informing to know what others think and that's the only reason I read these comments - not to try and change someone's mind!isam said:
It doesn't matter what I think really does it if you have made your mind up?Philip_Thompson said:
UKIP have one guaranteed seat, which is guaranteed because Carswell crossed to them (Carswell would be retaining it if he'd stayed Con).isam said:I've lost my bank card and have no online betting accounts, this could be a good thing
Ukip over 2.5 seats 10/11 Betfred
Insane
Other than Carswell which seats do you think are "nailed on" UKIP and which do you think are "probable" or "possible"?
Clacton certain. Thurrock probable. Thanet S and Rochester and Strood possible coin tosses. Others I don't see happening.
2.5 sounds about right. No I don't want another bet, we've already got one ;-)
Oh blimey what is our bet?
The bets just a fiver charity one, on a 4.5 line.isam said:
Oky dokePhilip_Thompson said:
I will offer you a fiver charity bet at evens at the 4.5 line if you're interested?isam said:At the risk of repeating myself a third time, I am offering 4/5 Ukip to get under 4.5 seats
Why aren't people steaming into this massive price?
Over 4.5 and I will pay a fiver to the charity of your choice, under 4.5 and you pay a fiver to the charity of my choice.0 -
Zero chance.Purseybear said:
Then remind me never to take any notice of you're betting posts.Sean_F said:
I'd put Thanet South with the Probables.Philip_Thompson said:
UKIP have one guaranteed seat, which is guaranteed because Carswell crossed to them (Carswell would be retaining it if he'd stayed Con).isam said:I've lost my bank card and have no online betting accounts, this could be a good thing
Ukip over 2.5 seats 10/11 Betfred
Insane
Other than Carswell which seats do you think are "nailed on" UKIP and which do you think are "probable" or "possible"?
Clacton certain. Thurrock probable. Thanet S and Rochester and Strood possible coin tosses. Others I don't see happening.
2.5 sounds about right. No I don't want another bet, we've already got one ;-)
"Probable"? Lol LMAO. Every poll has it neck & neck with, if anything, tories whisker ahead. In fact if you believe anecdotes from the ground campaign its squeaky time for farage and not looking great.
ps and a lot of labour will vote tory to kick farage.0 -
So you're discounting the Survation poll that has him comfortably ahead? I think he will win by a margin of 5 or so. Easily.Purseybear said:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/south-swindon-thanet-south-and-sheffield-hallam/Chris123 said:
Anecdotes from the ground? Which parallel universe are you referring to? Nigel will win South Thanet easily.Purseybear said:
Then remind me never to take any notice of you're betting posts.Sean_F said:
I'd put Thanet South with the Probables.Philip_Thompson said:
UKIP have one guaranteed seat, which is guaranteed because Carswell crossed to them (Carswell would be retaining it if he'd stayed Con).isam said:I've lost my bank card and have no online betting accounts, this could be a good thing
Ukip over 2.5 seats 10/11 Betfred
Insane
Other than Carswell which seats do you think are "nailed on" UKIP and which do you think are "probable" or "possible"?
Clacton certain. Thurrock probable. Thanet S and Rochester and Strood possible coin tosses. Others I don't see happening.
2.5 sounds about right. No I don't want another bet, we've already got one ;-)
"Probable"? Lol LMAO. Every poll has it neck & neck with, if anything, tories whisker ahead. In fact if you believe anecdotes from the ground campaign its squeaky time for farage and not looking great.
ps and a lot of labour will vote tory to kick farage.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11571744/Nick-Clegg-and-Nigel-Farage-will-lose-in-general-election-new-Lord-Ashcroft-poll-shows.html
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/29/clegg-farage-sheffield-south-thanet-ashcroft-poll
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11548397/Nigel-Farage-is-fading-away-without-a-fight.html
Could reel out another dozen but if your an ostrich your an ostrich and I'll be talking to thin air.
He may win but if he does it won't be "easily".0 -
It's a consistent but problematic definition. because of the impossibility of knowing what the right thing is without trying it. If the status quo is bad enough, then trying something else is inherently sensible.Philip_Thompson said:
Radicalism is only good if you're radically doing the right thing. The Economist explains why Miliband is wanting to radically do the wrong things - and that is worse than doing nothing.Polruan said:
Morning all (just about).JEO said:It is great to see the Conservatives have the endorsement of both the Financial Times and the Economist today. The Economist was particularly scathing about Ed Miliband saying his agenda is "statism masquerading as progressivism" and calling him "the most economically radical premier since Thatcher".
That's a very strange comment from the Economist - assuming it's intended as a criticism. Given how fantastically the global economy hasn't been going for the best part of a decade, you would think that economic radicalism is needed as much as it was by the end of the 70s. Rather supports the characterisation of Tories as people who would lay down their lives to defend the things they vigorously opposed a generation ago.
Right > Nothing (status quo) > Wrong
For example, Maggie was a few weeks away from being seen to have done completely the wrong thing by taking on certain unions (a minority may have seen her actions as ideologically pure, but a majority would have taken a more teleological view and thought she'd got it wrong). On many views the shift from appeasement to war from 1938 to 1939 was an abandonment of status quo to a radical stance regarded as wrong by much of the right wing press.0 -
Yes, appealing to the Labour drones has left her a bit exposed and one can only assume her reading of it is that Labour will do enough in England and wales to be in position to need SNP.CarlottaVance said:
I wonder if an Alec Salmond led SNP might not have been quite as unequivocal overmalcolmg said:
I would hope they would vote for anything that is in Scotland's interests. I would hope they are better than just ideology and would do what was right for Scotland regardless of who was promoting it. Doing what labour do as a matter of course would be a big mistake.CarlottaVance said:
So you think they might vote for a Tory's Queen's Speech stuffed with goodies for Scotland?malcolmg said:
SNP are not as stupid and blinkered as you thoughCarlottaVance said:SouthamObserver said:
I agree. At least for a year or so. If the SNP immediately brings down a Labour government orhamiltonace said:
Can we really see the SNP taking down a Labour minority government a year before the next Scottish election? Ed Milliband will not do a deal with the SNP as he does not need to do one.SouthamObserver said:
Which means the SNP voting with the Tories to bring down a Labour government. Alternatively, if the SNP abstains, Labour could do a deal with other parties - unless the Tories have a majority if the SNP votes are excluded.Life_ina_market_town said:
Will the SNP really vote to express confidence in a government intent on pursuing "austerity" and renewing Trident (both which they have been campaigning vociferously against in North Britain)? It must be doubted. The best that can be hoped for Labour is that they will abstain. The Daily Mail report that Ms Sturgeon has said Miliband will not get a budget through the House of Commons unless "he compromises".Pulpstar said:Not if it means the speech failing to get through. Which it probably will, so they won't abstain.
TORIES OUT! as Nicola Sturgeon.....who has left zero wriggle room....0 -
Nawaz would have been called a Jihadi if he was a Labour candidate. His Labour opponent is the niece of the Bangladesh PM who is hanging Islamists right now.isam said:Rejoice!!! Cancer is eliminated
Only because they've all been cured
Rejoice!! Maajid Nawaz is no longer a jihadi loving islamist radical
Yeah only because he isn't one anymore0 -
Watching This Week from last night.. Joleyn Rubenstein got absolutely slaughtered and shown for what an idiot he is
A pound shop Russell Brand if there could be such a thing
Try to watch on iplayer, the way he was shown up over Iraq/Suez was class, what a helmet
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http://pando.com/2015/03/28/the-war-nerd-a-brief-history-of-the-yemen-clusterfck/SandyRentool said:Just noticed that Saudi Arabia was invaded overnight...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-32537543
Doesn't it count after the Saudis already invaded Yemen? The Saudis better hope the Shias of Narjan don't rise up in sympathy.
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You contribute a lot more (ie the people). Or the oil in the British seas above you contributes?malcolmg said:
Your usual Little Englander crap, why do you not complain about even bigger number spent on London. Scotland is a huge part of the UK , ie for dummies there are lots of remote areas. We also contribute far more. You need to get out more.Philip_Thompson said:
You think having 20% more spent on Scots than the English is unfair?malcolmg said:
Would be the best thing that could happen, once the London parties cut that and make the deal even more unfair to Scotland the game is over.CarlottaVance said:What are the chances 'Barnett Formula' figures prominently in a second election?
If we had the same per capita spent on Newcastle as Glasgow what would be unfair about that?
How much do Scots, as opposed to oil, contribute?0 -
Like you I have real reservations about the utility of the concept of a structural deficit. By the time you are getting anything like accurate numbers you are talking about ancient history.OblitusSumMe said:@DavidL - Your interesting answer on the deficit and government tax receipts does serve to illustrate the problem with talking about structural deficits, rather than just the deficit as is. Thanks for the clarification about the source of half wrt as a % of GDP.
The only sensible way for a government with debt of over 80% of GDP to progress is to aim for a balanced budget over the cycle so all of the growth is used to reduce the burden of debt on the economy. In my opinion this includes capital spending and I am getting increasingly frustrated that economically illiterate interviewers are letting Labour away with this "current spending in balance" nonsense.
It also means that we should be running a surplus by now as we are (a) already more than half way through the current cycle (Hunchman tells us we have until October!) and (b) we will never run surpluses equivalent to the deficits run at the height of the crisis. We would need to run surpluses for an entire Parliament to match the deficit in 2009.
If Labour or the SNP want to spend more they need to increase taxes by an equivalent amount as well as address the current deficit. In pretending they can increase spending and only increase taxes on a tiny percentage of the population they are being fundamentally dishonest.0 -
great post SeanSeanT said:Jeez, it's knife edge now, isn't it? I know this is hardly news, but. Jeez.
Tory lead of 1-2%: Ed is PM (in a danse macabre with the Nats)
Tory lead of 4-5% (or up, obv): Dave is PM
Tory lead of 3%: Dave is probably PM, depending on the position of Neptune in Aquarius
If I were a Labour long-term strategist, I'd be praying for a Dave lead of 3. Let Cameron briefly be an incredibly weak PM, and avoid the horrible Miliband-Sturgeon mesalliance, that Political Wedding from Hell0 -
This morning on Today, Farage basically said that Kipper MPs can to all intents and purposes be classed as Tories when we are figuring out who has a majority. Vote Purple get Blue. Something for the waverers in Harlepool to think about.0
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A murder of pollsters by some bettors though?
SimonStClare said:
A little tweak here, a little tweak there and we’ll soon have a murmuration of pollsters.CarlottaVance said:
I doubt any of the pollsters are sleeping easy this week.....GIN1138 said:Online pollsters, particularly YouGov, will have questions to answer if Cameron is waving from the steps of Maggie's Den this time next week...
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Congrats, you win the Bill Kristol neocon comment of the week for mentioning appeasement.Polruan said:
It's a consistent but problematic definition. because of the impossibility of knowing what the right thing is without trying it. If the status quo is bad enough, then trying something else is inherently sensible.Philip_Thompson said:
Radicalism is only good if you're radically doing the right thing. The Economist explains why Miliband is wanting to radically do the wrong things - and that is worse than doing nothing.Polruan said:
Morning all (just about).JEO said:It is great to see the Conservatives have the endorsement of both the Financial Times and the Economist today. The Economist was particularly scathing about Ed Miliband saying his agenda is "statism masquerading as progressivism" and calling him "the most economically radical premier since Thatcher".
That's a very strange comment from the Economist - assuming it's intended as a criticism. Given how fantastically the global economy hasn't been going for the best part of a decade, you would think that economic radicalism is needed as much as it was by the end of the 70s. Rather supports the characterisation of Tories as people who would lay down their lives to defend the things they vigorously opposed a generation ago.
Right > Nothing (status quo) > Wrong
For example, Maggie was a few weeks away from being seen to have done completely the wrong thing by taking on certain unions (a minority may have seen her actions as ideologically pure, but a majority would have taken a more teleological view and thought she'd got it wrong). On many views the shift from appeasement to war from 1938 to 1939 was an abandonment of status quo to a radical stance regarded as wrong by much of the right wing press.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/61-times-kristol-reminded-of-hitler-churchill.html0 -
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...
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Would you vote for Nawaz if he was your PPC ?surbiton said:
Nawaz would have been called a Jihadi if he was a Labour candidate. His Labour opponent is the niece of the Bangladesh PM who is hanging Islamists right now.isam said:Rejoice!!! Cancer is eliminated
Only because they've all been cured
Rejoice!! Maajid Nawaz is no longer a jihadi loving islamist radical
Yeah only because he isn't one anymore
I know I would.
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Proof , if one was needed, that all his likely scalps are Tories. Reassurance to UKIP/Tory waverers.SandyRentool said:This morning on Today, Farage basically said that Kipper MPs can to all intents and purposes be classed as Tories when we are figuring out who has a majority. Vote Purple get Blue. Something for the waverers in Harlepool to think about.
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4-9 Nick Palmer - Surely that is buying money from what I have read on here.
Is Nick allowed to bet on himself? Or he take a bit of 2-1 on Anna as hedge against lost expenses.0 -
You can see why the Green party loses so many deposits in the elections as well with prize tools like him on the far left not bothering to vote also.isam said:Watching This Week from last night.. Joleyn Rubenstein got absolutely slaughtered and shown for what an idiot he is
A pound shop Russell Brand if there could be such a thing
Try to watch on iplayer, the way he was shown up over Iraq/Suez was class, what a helmet0 -
Without the oil we contribute as high as anyone and with oil we have kept the UK afloat for 30 years whilst being amongst the poorest in the UK. We have renovated and enriched London to what it is today. Your geography is fairly poor , or perhaps you are just addled, given well over 90% of the oil is in Scottish waters. I have never heard of these British waters you talk of , as I said you need to get out more , read a few books , lay off the comics and EDL leaflets.Philip_Thompson said:
You contribute a lot more (ie the people). Or the oil in the British seas above you contributes?malcolmg said:
Your usual Little Englander crap, why do you not complain about even bigger number spent on London. Scotland is a huge part of the UK , ie for dummies there are lots of remote areas. We also contribute far more. You need to get out more.Philip_Thompson said:
You think having 20% more spent on Scots than the English is unfair?malcolmg said:
Would be the best thing that could happen, once the London parties cut that and make the deal even more unfair to Scotland the game is over.CarlottaVance said:What are the chances 'Barnett Formula' figures prominently in a second election?
If we had the same per capita spent on Newcastle as Glasgow what would be unfair about that?
How much do Scots, as opposed to oil, contribute?0 -
EPIC - I laughed all the way through it.Tissue_Price said:
Sky have surpassed themselves:
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I think the SNP will sweep Scotland. The only seat I'm not sure about is Orkney and Shetlantd. I think that is the one place where we may well see tactical voting shutting out the SNP. Everywhere else tactical voting won't make a difference. I got in early on the SNP getting more than 50 seats and Labour getting below 5. I consider those to be safe bets. I'm also on Labour getting 0 seats in Scotland and think that there is a chance of that.
At the same time, I'm not convinced about the Conservatives getting the most seats nationally. I think they will galvanize their voters in the South West and will be getting a whole bunch of votes in safe seats because there has been the emergence of UKIP and Conservatives are split. I'm expecting turnout to increase in the safe Conservative seats and to decrease in the safe Labour seats.0 -
It was beautiful to watch. Such an arrogant cretin to annoint himself as the voice of the radical youth despite being 34 years old and privately educated. Portillo in particular seemed to relish tearing him apart.isam said:Watching This Week from last night.. Joleyn Rubenstein got absolutely slaughtered and shown for what an idiot he is
A pound shop Russell Brand if there could be such a thing
Try to watch on iplayer, the way he was shown up over Iraq/Suez was class, what a helmet0 -
Not quite enough. I think the magic number for Cameron is 300. If he gets 300 Ed spinning a coalition of the losers (plus the SNP) is just not going to sell. If he is in the 290s then it just might.Casino_Royale said:DC about 3% ahead on the day, I reckon. If he's very lucky getting to around 290 seats.
I agree with Sean. I don't know if it is wishful thinking but having been convinced that a small Labour plurality was an inevitability it suddenly seems on a knife edge as to whether a minority Tory government would be possible.0 -
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this timehamiltonace said:
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...
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David, for once we agree totally , though you should have included the Tories in there as well as they are lying through their teeth and have been for last 5 years. They cannot hope to just help their chums and soak the poor and get to continue. They have avoided the hard decisions and chose to just help themselves unfortunately.DavidL said:
Like you I have real reservations about the utility of the concept of a structural deficit. By the time you are getting anything like accurate numbers you are talking about ancient history.OblitusSumMe said:@DavidL - Your interesting answer on the deficit and government tax receipts does serve to illustrate the problem with talking about structural deficits, rather than just the deficit as is. Thanks for the clarification about the source of half wrt as a % of GDP.
The only sensible way for a government with debt of over 80% of GDP to progress is to aim for a balanced budget over the cycle so all of the growth is used to reduce the burden of debt on the economy. In my opinion this includes capital spending and I am getting increasingly frustrated that economically illiterate interviewers are letting Labour away with this "current spending in balance" nonsense.
It also means that we should be running a surplus by now as we are (a) already more than half way through the current cycle (Hunchman tells us we have until October!) and (b) we will never run surpluses equivalent to the deficits run at the height of the crisis. We would need to run surpluses for an entire Parliament to match the deficit in 2009.
If Labour or the SNP want to spend more they need to increase taxes by an equivalent amount as well as address the current deficit. In pretending they can increase spending and only increase taxes on a tiny percentage of the population they are being fundamentally dishonest.0 -
He would get chucked out the LOL for doing thatPulpstar said:
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this timehamiltonace said:
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...0 -
I'm expecting to see turnout increase in safe Labour seats, to UKIP's benefit.Chris123 said:At the same time, I'm not convinced about the Conservatives getting the most seats nationally. I think they will galvanize their voters in the South West and will be getting a whole bunch of votes in safe seats because there has been the emergence of UKIP and Conservatives are split. I'm expecting turnout to increase in the safe Conservative seats and to decrease in the safe Labour seats.
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290 is in no-man's land:DavidL said:
Not quite enough. I think the magic number for Cameron is 300. If he gets 300 Ed spinning a coalition of the losers (plus the SNP) is just not going to sell. If he is in the 290s then it just might.Casino_Royale said:DC about 3% ahead on the day, I reckon. If he's very lucky getting to around 290 seats.
I agree with Sean. I don't know if it is wishful thinking but having been convinced that a small Labour plurality was an inevitability it suddenly seems on a knife edge as to whether a minority Tory government would be possible.
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/picking-the-players-our-next-government/0 -
Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt20 -
What do the SNP want?
Tories more likely to offer Scots more devolved powers.0 -
Let us take a moment to reflect on our "Greens to retain less than 20% deposits" bet.Pulpstar said:
You can see why the Green party loses so many deposits in the elections as well with prize tools like him on the far left not bothering to vote also.isam said:Watching This Week from last night.. Joleyn Rubenstein got absolutely slaughtered and shown for what an idiot he is
A pound shop Russell Brand if there could be such a thing
Try to watch on iplayer, the way he was shown up over Iraq/Suez was class, what a helmet0 -
Labour has no heartbeat in Scotland. They're already at one another's throats assigning blame on who lost the election for them. Their campaign has been one big negative: Vote SNP and get the Conservatives. It's all about the past.0
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He sure did, Andrew Neil not far behind..Brom said:
It was beautiful to watch. Such an arrogant cretin to annoint himself as the voice of the radical youth despite being 34 years old and privately educated. Portillo in particular seemed to relish tearing him apart.isam said:Watching This Week from last night.. Joleyn Rubenstein got absolutely slaughtered and shown for what an idiot he is
A pound shop Russell Brand if there could be such a thing
Try to watch on iplayer, the way he was shown up over Iraq/Suez was class, what a helmet
I will be honest I don't know much about the Suez crisis, but why would you go on tv and not be able to rebuff instant decimations of your argument? You said it well, "arrogant cretin"0 -
What's the LOL ?malcolmg said:
He would get chucked out the LOL for doing thatPulpstar said:
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this timehamiltonace said:
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...
Local orange lodge ?0 -
Good old unionists, they cannot take defeat well..........http://www.thenational.scot/news/party-activist-trapped-as-glasgow-snp-office-is-attacked-by-a-gang-of-thugs.25570
-
In fairness it has worked for 20 years.Chris123 said:Labour has no heartbeat in Scotland. They're already at one another's throats assigning blame on who lost the election for them. Their campaign has been one big negative: Vote SNP and get the Conservatives. It's all about the past.
0 -
Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
An award's an award, right? Apologies for picking such an obvious example but it's clearly not being used to demonise a particular view rather than to illustrate how judgement by hindsight works. Sadly I lack Mr Dancer's ability to pick a profound historical analogy which enables everyone to nod along knowingly as if they understand exactly how I've backed up the point I was illustrating.FalseFlag said:
Congrats, you win the Bill Kristol neocon comment of the week for mentioning appeasement.Polruan said:
It's a consistent but problematic definition. because of the impossibility of knowing what the right thing is without trying it. If the status quo is bad enough, then trying something else is inherently sensible.Philip_Thompson said:
Radicalism is only good if you're radically doing the right thing. The Economist explains why Miliband is wanting to radically do the wrong things - and that is worse than doing nothing.Polruan said:
Morning all (just about).JEO said:It is great to see the Conservatives have the endorsement of both the Financial Times and the Economist today. The Economist was particularly scathing about Ed Miliband saying his agenda is "statism masquerading as progressivism" and calling him "the most economically radical premier since Thatcher".
That's a very strange comment from the Economist - assuming it's intended as a criticism. Given how fantastically the global economy hasn't been going for the best part of a decade, you would think that economic radicalism is needed as much as it was by the end of the 70s. Rather supports the characterisation of Tories as people who would lay down their lives to defend the things they vigorously opposed a generation ago.
Right > Nothing (status quo) > Wrong
For example, Maggie was a few weeks away from being seen to have done completely the wrong thing by taking on certain unions (a minority may have seen her actions as ideologically pure, but a majority would have taken a more teleological view and thought she'd got it wrong). On many views the shift from appeasement to war from 1938 to 1939 was an abandonment of status quo to a radical stance regarded as wrong by much of the right wing press.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/04/61-times-kristol-reminded-of-hitler-churchill.html0 -
Good old unionists, they cannot take defeat well..........http://www.thenational.scot/news/party-activist-trapped-as-glasgow-snp-office-is-attacked-by-a-gang-of-thugs.2557
Yes, see my next post , lovely peoplePulpstar said:
What's the LOL ?malcolmg said:
He would get chucked out the LOL for doing thatPulpstar said:
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this timehamiltonace said:
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...
Local orange lodge ?0 -
"Sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
"Could I just ask your name, vicar?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
Idiots and muppets on both sides Malc I'm afraid.malcolmg said:Good old unionists, they cannot take defeat well..........http://www.thenational.scot/news/party-activist-trapped-as-glasgow-snp-office-is-attacked-by-a-gang-of-thugs.2557
Yes, see my next post , lovely peoplePulpstar said:
What's the LOL ?malcolmg said:
He would get chucked out the LOL for doing thatPulpstar said:
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this timehamiltonace said:
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...
Local orange lodge ?0 -
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this time
"When Nicola saw the breadth of her domain, she wept for there were not more wards to conquer" - Partial apologies to Plutarch (for he never really wrote that - as any fule kno)0 -
"Let me answer that directly...."isam said:
"Sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"
0 -
"And let me answer it to you very directly.. I'm sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
Lol!! Great minds!RobD said:
"Let me answer that directly...."isam said:
"Sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
titter.....Casino_Royale said:
"And let me answer it to you very directly.. I'm sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
"Absolutely"RobD said:
"Let me answer that directly...."isam said:
"Sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
The Wayne Rooney of British politics, then? Extended metaphor potential for you there...SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.0 -
He was terrible today on Sky News.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
I think the low point was saying Lord Ashcroft's polls are produced via voodoo0 -
I'm surprised anyone is impressed by the Con/Lab campaigns. To me the whole thing's looked like a panicky auction.TheScreamingEagles said:The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
Zero credibility to either of their platforms.
0 -
At least Ed didn't stoop to Gordon Brown levels of "A woman, and you are one."0
-
Mr. Eagle, harder and harder for Farage to deny he really doesn't like polls
Incidentally, I'm thinking of watching electoral coverage online and staying up to do so [we'll see how that pans out]. I'd heartily second those calling for contingency plans in case of excessive traffic, though I'm sure that's been considered well in advance.0 -
I don't think anyone would have expected the Conservatives to be leading, with UKIP on c.13% on average.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
UKIP look like polling about 4m votes next week.0 -
Very true pulpstar , but those dinosaurs are the worst. Hard to believe that crap is still alive in Scotland, even if limited to Glasgow and west. Mind you there are idiots on Catholic side as well.Pulpstar said:
Idiots and muppets on both sides Malc I'm afraid.malcolmg said:Good old unionists, they cannot take defeat well..........http://www.thenational.scot/news/party-activist-trapped-as-glasgow-snp-office-is-attacked-by-a-gang-of-thugs.2557
Yes, see my next post , lovely peoplePulpstar said:
What's the LOL ?malcolmg said:
He would get chucked out the LOL for doing thatPulpstar said:
Voting SNP will help put Labour in a casket forever this timehamiltonace said:
Voted Lib Dem last time but not even got leaflet from them this time. Only 50/50 that I will vote and still undecided.Pulpstar said:
How will you be voting in the key constituency of Hamilton & Rutherglen.hamiltonace said:
We are in new territory here in Scotland and my feeling is that there is a vast amount of undecided voters despite what the polls say. One of the indecisions is if they will vote. The leaflets no longer come through the door and there are no posters at all apart from the massive billboards with Sturgeon and some graffiti on them.Pulpstar said:
Labour 16% behind "Good poll for them in Scotland"Richard_Nabavi said:
Just savour that observation for a moment...TheScreamingEagles said:The Scottish sub sample was favourable to Lab. 44% to the SNP and 28% for Lab.
Indeed !
My gut feeling is that Labour are going to hang onto up to 10 seats and the Lib Dems 3 or 4. This will make it very close as to who has the most seats. Voter turnout as I have said before will be lower than the polls. Maybe dramatically lower as we had so many people signed up for the referendum who have never voted before in their life. We have a bloated electoral register so anything over 65% would be impressive.
It is one where Labour has a flicker of hope...
Local orange lodge ?0 -
"Look, I have to say to you, if you're asking me if marriage is an important institution.. the answer is yes!"RobD said:
titter.....Casino_Royale said:
"And let me answer it to you very directly.. I'm sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
You have been watching Matt Forde?Casino_Royale said:
"Look, I have to say to you, if you're asking me if marriage is an important institution.. the answer is yes!"RobD said:
titter.....Casino_Royale said:
"And let me answer it to you very directly.. I'm sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
I know I ask this question everyday but any more polls today?0
-
At least he didn't bemoan yougov's stale panel, that really would have been embarrassing...TheScreamingEagles said:
He was terrible today on Sky News.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
I think the low point was saying Lord Ashcroft's polls are produced via voodoo0 -
Two things have really surprised in this election, maybe 3.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
Firstly, I consistently predicted before the referendum that rather than falling away the SNP would do better and win more seats but I won't pretend to be anything other than astonished about what has happened to SLAB. We really should be checking the water supply.
Secondly, like you, I have been surprised by the resilience of the UKIP vote. I really expected them to be squeezed into single figures by now.
Thirdly, I am somewhat surprised at the lack of a recovery on the part of the Lib Dems. Very poor mid term polling is not that unusual for them but they normally recover. There has been almost no sign of this.
The Tories and Labour in comparison have been highly predictable.0 -
I think what he meant to say is thisTheScreamingEagles said:
He was terrible today on Sky News.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
I think the low point was saying Lord Ashcroft's polls are produced via voodoo
"As a high profile candidate, I'd expect a small, but significant naming boost - also the spiral of silence is a very decent tool in a traditional battle, but it's use is of questionable veracity in a battle where the new party starts out on close to zero. Hence I respect Ashcroft's findings, but honestly do believe I am slightly ahead."0 -
Natch ;-)isam said:
You have been watching Matt Forde?Casino_Royale said:
"Look, I have to say to you, if you're asking me if marriage is an important institution.. the answer is yes!"RobD said:
titter.....Casino_Royale said:
"And let me answer it to you very directly.. I'm sorry, what was your name?"Tissue_Price said:Gráinne Maguire @GrainneMaguire
"Do you Ed Miliband, take Justine to be your lawful wedded wife, to have &to hold as long as you both shall live?"
"That's a great question"0 -
Clarke typifies the smug self interested troughing SLAB MP. Hopefully they are eradicated next week.SeanT said:Brilliant video from the Guardian's John Harris.
If you want to understand what is happening to Scottish Labour, look at the sense of entitlement draining from this SLAB MP. The panic is palpable. Just 10 minutes long
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2015/apr/30/labour-snp-scotland-election-video …0 -
The tiny seeds of civil war and ethnic cleansing grow in such fertile soil. I was talking to the kids last night about being very mistrustful of any party with National in it's name (BNP, National party of South Africa, DNVP of the Weimar republic, NSP, FN etc etc.). Perhaps my melodrama is misplaced...malcolmg said:Good old unionists, they cannot take defeat well..........http://www.thenational.scot/news/party-activist-trapped-as-glasgow-snp-office-is-attacked-by-a-gang-of-thugs.2557
0 -
I think Miliband has left the door open to a Labour government vaulted into office by the SNP.
On Sky News (interview on a train). "It is of course a matter for each Member of Parliament how they will vote, for example on the Queen's Speech."0 -
His campaign has been no worse than the other English leaders I would suggest. Sturgeon has obviously been the shining light so far. Farage was the best performer yesterday though I suspect was only seen by 2 million viewers. He was also good on This Morning and Good Morning Britain today. He has definitely had a few low points and under performed in both debates but the last 24 hours will help him galvanize the UKIP support.TheScreamingEagles said:
He was terrible today on Sky News.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
I think the low point was saying Lord Ashcroft's polls are produced via voodoo
Next weekend after the press commitments he can put his feet up, and he does indeed definitely need a rest!
0 -
If over 50 SNP Mps are elected, won't they be very keen to have no early second election?
After all, most of them will have had to give up their current jobs to take their seats, a large % of them will have smallish majorities, and so an early 2nd election would make them potentially vulnerable to early unemployment, (esp as in a 2nd election, the scope for voting tactically for the known best placed unionist candidate will increase).0 -
Con - Lab up to 26 on SPIN.0
-
Survation for the Mirror later on today and the usual YouGov.murali_s said:I know I ask this question everyday but any more polls today?
I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw more Ashcroft marginal polling today.0 -
I'm watching the Coatbridge clip without sound - is the initial part Coatbridge or Dublin ?0
-
Very true.Polruan said:
At least he didn't bemoan yougov's stale panel, that really would have been embarrassing...TheScreamingEagles said:
He was terrible today on Sky News.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
I think the low point was saying Lord Ashcroft's polls are produced via voodoo0 -
His Lordship is providing more marginal data later on.0
-
I suspect generalising about them will be very difficult. There must be a whole crop who didn't think they had a prayer of winning when they were selected who are now going to find themselves MPs.llef said:If over 50 SNP Mps are elected, won't they be very keen to have no early second election?
After all, most of them will have had to give up their current jobs to take their seats, a large % of them will have smallish majorities, and so an early 2nd election would make them potentially vulnerable to early unemployment, (esp as in a 2nd election, the scope for voting tactically for the known best placed unionist candidate will increase).0 -
He's just tweeted to that effect.TheScreamingEagles said:
Survation for the Mirror later on today and the usual YouGov.murali_s said:I know I ask this question everyday but any more polls today?
I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw more Ashcroft marginal polling today.0 -
If UKIP won Heywood & Middleton after missing out by 600 votes in October, and their SP was 6/1 it would probably go down as one of the great obvious but ignored bets
They also "won" or "tied" the SYPCC in Rotherham and Rother Valley
People are just assuming Labour will drearily hold on up North, but who knows?
over 2.5 seats 10/11 pfff0 -
O/T
Just wanted to draw people's attention to this, as an alternative to the major international NGOs. As a family, we try to support grassroots organisations because we think this is the best way to respond rapidly and flexibly to maximise outcomes (this was the same philosphy behind MERLIN, which we helped set up in the early 90s).
Ali Marston, who is spearheading this project grew up in Nepal (her parents still live there), and has worked for our foundation for the last couple of years running our scale-up fund. We've started this off with a small donation, and she has brought in France24 and CNN to partner on the media side.
Anyone who is thinking about helping out, please consider her efforts vs the multi-nationals...
http://bulldogtrust.org/nepal-earthquake-recovery-appeal-2015/
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By-elections are the best chance a challenging party has of winning, if they miss that then it's over.isam said:If UKIP won Heywood & Middleton after missing out by 600 votes in October, and their SP was 6/1 it would probably go down as one of the great obvious but ignored bets
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FFS he is 74 years old. A walking by election ready to happen. No wonder SLAB are in such a state.malcolmg said:
Clarke typifies the smug self interested troughing SLAB MP. Hopefully they are eradicated next week.SeanT said:Brilliant video from the Guardian's John Harris.
If you want to understand what is happening to Scottish Labour, look at the sense of entitlement draining from this SLAB MP. The panic is palpable. Just 10 minutes long
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2015/apr/30/labour-snp-scotland-election-video …
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Funny, I thought national waters belonged to the nation state and the nation state is the United Kingdom unless or until Scotland departs. If I look at any proper global atlas or map, it shows our island as being united not divided.malcolmg said:
Without the oil we contribute as high as anyone and with oil we have kept the UK afloat for 30 years whilst being amongst the poorest in the UK. We have renovated and enriched London to what it is today. Your geography is fairly poor , or perhaps you are just addled, given well over 90% of the oil is in Scottish waters. I have never heard of these British waters you talk of , as I said you need to get out more , read a few books , lay off the comics and EDL leaflets.Philip_Thompson said:
You contribute a lot more (ie the people). Or the oil in the British seas above you contributes?malcolmg said:
Your usual Little Englander crap, why do you not complain about even bigger number spent on London. Scotland is a huge part of the UK , ie for dummies there are lots of remote areas. We also contribute far more. You need to get out more.Philip_Thompson said:
You think having 20% more spent on Scots than the English is unfair?malcolmg said:
Would be the best thing that could happen, once the London parties cut that and make the deal even more unfair to Scotland the game is over.CarlottaVance said:What are the chances 'Barnett Formula' figures prominently in a second election?
If we had the same per capita spent on Newcastle as Glasgow what would be unfair about that?
How much do Scots, as opposed to oil, contribute?
So the waters and all the oil in it are ours just as much as yours. Lay off the comics yourself - making the waters Scottish would occur if you went independent. But you're not, and your own countrymen when asked voted no. So nice deceit but not true.0 -
And some of them, no doubt, will find it a bloody inconvenience!DavidL said:
I suspect generalising about them will be very difficult. There must be a whole crop who didn't think they had a prayer of winning when they were selected who are now going to find themselves MPs.llef said:If over 50 SNP Mps are elected, won't they be very keen to have no early second election?
After all, most of them will have had to give up their current jobs to take their seats, a large % of them will have smallish majorities, and so an early 2nd election would make them potentially vulnerable to early unemployment, (esp as in a 2nd election, the scope for voting tactically for the known best placed unionist candidate will increase).
By-elections?
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A point that John Harris made in that film is that Labour may need to change its name in Scotland and he skips over New labour and onto Modern Labour.
But may be the problem is that SLAB never really embraced New Labour with the dominance of Gordon Brown etc they kept New Labour on the sidelines. Ironically their new Leader is from New Labour but he seems incapable of changing SLAB.0 -
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Oh right, got it.logical_song said:
By-elections are the best chance a challenging party has of winning, if they miss that then it's over.isam said:If UKIP won Heywood & Middleton after missing out by 600 votes in October, and their SP was 6/1 it would probably go down as one of the great obvious but ignored bets
Thanks for the heads up
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverclyde_by-election,_20110 -
He left the door open last night too. He ruled out a "deal" specifying a "coalition" or "supply & confidence". He , however, cannot dictate how the SNP would vote on their own.RodCrosby said:I think Miliband has left the door open to a Labour government vaulted into office by the SNP.
On Sky News (interview on a train). "It is of course a matter for each Member of Parliament how they will vote, for example on the Queen's Speech."
The SNP is on record that they would vote down a Tory QS.0 -
In Feb 1974 the Liberals got over 6 million votes and polled over 19% - and they got 14 seats.Sean_F said:
I don't think anyone would have expected the Conservatives to be leading, with UKIP on c.13% on average.SeanT said:
No question: Farage has had a bad campaign. He says he is ill and I believe him: he looks sweaty, and tired, and out-of-sorts, trying to win the election all by himself, and abjectly failing. The man is knackered. That likeable brio has gone, for now.TheScreamingEagles said:Voters have been turned off in droves by Nigel Farage during the election campaign, a new poll claims.
The Ipsos MORI survey for the Standard found 38 per cent of people had developed a less favourable view of the Ukip leader in recent weeks, compared with 20 per cent whose opinion of him had improved. The split gave Mr Farage, right, who remains extremely popular among his own supporters, a net rating of -18.
The poll found 28 per cent of people believed the Conservative Party and David Cameron had run the most negative campaign, while 23 per cent said Labour. But the Tories were credited with having the most effective campaign, ahead of Labour by 17 per cent to 15.
http://bit.ly/1zxXHt2
What is surprising is how resilient the UKIP polling has been, despite this. It shows that there is a future for UKIP after Farage, it also makes you wonder how well they might have done, if Farage had been match fit.
UKIP look like polling about 4m votes next week.0 -
Another cock-up with postal vote ballot papers - this time in my constituency:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-england-32540229
"Postal voters in parts of County Durham could have to vote twice..." Vote early, vote often!-1 -
You are aware that then SNP are a party of government and not a mere challenging party aren't you?isam said:
Oh right, got it.logical_song said:
By-elections are the best chance a challenging party has of winning, if they miss that then it's over.isam said:If UKIP won Heywood & Middleton after missing out by 600 votes in October, and their SP was 6/1 it would probably go down as one of the great obvious but ignored bets
Thanks for the heads up
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverclyde_by-election,_20110 -
SPIN is behaving now like it did 2010. Until yesterday, it was logical. What changed it ? Miliband's trip on the stage ?
UKIP has also gone up two ticks.0
