politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like being 1992 all over again
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like being 1992 all over again
Hillary Clinton is today expected to confirm she is running for the Democratic nomination to be the president of the US, effectively firing the starting gun on the 2016 election campaign.
Comments
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I confidently predict the number of comments about the US election on this thread will struggle to break double figures
and first0 -
Go 1992!
We're allriiiiiiiiiiiight!0 -
Mildly amused that political dynasties are more powerful in the US, whereas the UK (with its monarchy) has less [although they do exist].
Incidentally, one might argue such a long term trend was important in the decline of the Roman Republic.
Does the Tea Party and demographic shifts still tilt things against the reds?0 -
Interesting piece. I think it will be 1992 in another sense, in that I expect a (strong) 3rd party candidate, but unlike Ross Perot, I suspect it will be a split in the Republican ranks with a Tea Party mark II candidate standing. Boehner really is a Democrat in all but name from everything I read. And also the November 2016 will be 13 months into the global sovereign debt crisis, which makes this all the more likely. I could see Hilary winning with around 43% of the vote, just like Clinton did in 1992.0
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2 GG's standing in Bradford West, was that deliberate on the part of the local Tory party there?!:
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/66036/bradford-west
The well known GG appears first though, which is good news as far as Respect are concerned.0 -
UKIP top of the ballot paper in Boston and Skegness - a marginal help?
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/65969/boston-and-skegness0 -
just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?0 -
no ones ever won any money betting on US presidential candidates....alex. said:I confidently predict the number of comments about the US election on this thread will struggle to break double figures
and first
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hunchman Indeed, Trump will likely run third party if he fails to get the GOP nomination. It is likely to be Clinton v Bush, but Christie has a chance if Bush does not run (perhaps backing Rubio). Rubio is likely GOP VP nominee0
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I don't think Boehner is democrat in all but name. He's stuck with a caucus that is utterly riven with the tea party willing to die on the most ludicrous hills who then blame Boehner for their failurehunchman said:Interesting piece. I think it will be 1992 in another sense, in that I expect a (strong) 3rd party candidate, but unlike Ross Perot, I suspect it will be a split in the Republican ranks with a Tea Party mark II candidate standing. Boehner really is a Democrat in all but name from everything I read. And also the November 2016 will be 13 months into the global sovereign debt crisis, which makes this all the more likely. I could see Hilary winning with around 43% of the vote, just like Clinton did in 1992.
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Hell yeah!Ave_it said:Go 1992!
We're allriiiiiiiiiiiight!0 -
Hopefully some Pbers took my tip of Jeb Bush for rep nominee at 6 earlier in the year.0
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Lucky for UKIP the spoiler party are halfway down the list.hunchman said:2 GG's standing in Bradford West, was that deliberate on the part of the local Tory party there?!:
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/66036/bradford-west
The well known GG appears first though, which is good news as far as Respect are concerned.
Is there any evidence that many people make their mind up at the polling station? Would be interesting to know.
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It affects 10%?Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?
A stunningly good hit rate among the population compared to zero hours, non dom, bankers bonus, bedroom tax.
Unmarried? Well get married. It isn't hard. You really don't need to wait to become LOTO to get bullied into it.
The train fares and IHT policies will be good for the Tories in and around London, shoring up marginals where many have come to accept that Ed wants to tax them to death.
For every old person worrying about their estate, they will have a number of kids who know it's their future security.
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IHT take is surely due to rocket both in absolute amounts and in percentage of estates it affects as this is the mother of all fiscal drags. Essentially the allowance had trodden water whilst asset prices have risen and as you rightly point out not that many people die each year (as a percentage of us fortunately ). Basically any house inside the M25 and just about any two bed flat inside the North Circular as well as many three bed houses in many parts of average cities (eg Cardiff where I am) are beyond or nudging that limit. Add in some life assurance and many folk who "have done ok" but are utterly not the "rich" are going to get involved with IHT.Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?0 -
I really hope Clinton at the least is made to work hard for the nomination, should she get it. Sure, we're going to get another interesting Republican field it looks like, but we've sampled that buffet quite a bit in recent elections, we need the different flavour that should come with a tight Democratic race I think.0
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OMG Mrs BJ has just booked a holiday from 6th May to 9th May in Devon. Apparently I am going too.
FFS the DPM is saved. Apparently I agreed to her booking it for us when on PB earlier.
Clearly too wrapped up in the IHT thread to listen to the wife.
At least the farm we are staying on has WIFI but cant imagine the farmer will appreciate my celebrations should EICIPM occur.0 -
Mr. Owls, you should write a letter to Cameron thanking him for your holiday hand-out.0
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My parents were going to be in Cyprus before I told them what was happening on May 7th, in the nick of time. Honestly, some people!!bigjohnowls said:OMG Mrs BJ has just booked a holiday from 6th May to 9th May in Devon. Apparently I am going too.
FFS the DPM is saved. Apparently I agreed to her booking it for us when on PB earlier.
Clearly too wrapped up in the IHT thread to listen to the wife.
At least the farm we are staying on has WIFI but cant imagine the farmer will appreciate my celebrations should EICIPM occur.0 -
Hastily arranging postal votes.
Must pay attention Bugger Bugger Bugger0 -
Did Carswell know that he would be the leader of a party with one MP ? Even Caroline Lucas can't say that.0
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After Iowa in 2008 and Hilary finishing 3rd, I don't think the nomination is as sure a thing for her as many people on here think.kle4 said:I really hope Clinton at the least is made to work hard for the nomination, should she get it. Sure, we're going to get another interesting Republican field it looks like, but we've sampled that buffet quite a bit in recent elections, we need the different flavour that should come with a tight Democratic race I think.
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Interesting little article on South Africa, anger there, and the ANC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-322486050 -
I mainly blame you Mr DancerMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, you should write a letter to Cameron thanking him for your holiday hand-out.
Bloody pork chops!!!0 -
Being top or bottom of the ballot paper is known to have a very slight favourable effect.MP_SE said:
Lucky for UKIP the spoiler party are halfway down the list.hunchman said:2 GG's standing in Bradford West, was that deliberate on the part of the local Tory party there?!:
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/66036/bradford-west
The well known GG appears first though, which is good news as far as Respect are concerned.
Is there any evidence that many people make their mind up at the polling station? Would be interesting to know.0 -
Mr. Hunchman, not my area of interest, but I agree. She's got a lot of baggage, and many of those remarking on the inevitability of her nomination probably said much the same two terms ago.
Not saying it's impossible, or even unlikely, merely not a guaranteed occurrence.0 -
I can't see how grassroots UKIP will take to Carswell as leader.surbiton said:Did Carswell know that he would be the leader of a party with one MP ? Even Caroline Lucas can't say that.
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Recent photographs of Hillary Clinton show a rather barmy looking elderly woman heavily into Botox and plastic surgery. I'm not optimistic of her chances.0
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Green Party would raise top rate of income tax to 60%, the party could also ban horse and greyhound racing
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/green-party-plans-raise-top-rate-income-tax-60-14960220 -
If Clegg survives on 3rd recount I will be forced to torch the farm0
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Oh, I assumed this was about our election.
Anyway, as a long time Hilary fan I think she is now too old and compromised. If she is the Democrat candidate the Republicans will win. If they have any sense they will find sensible woman too but who knows what they will come up with.0 -
FREE ADVICEwelshowl said:
IHT take is surely due to rocket both in absolute amounts and in percentage of estates it affects as this is the mother of all fiscal drags. Essentially the allowance had trodden water whilst asset prices have risen and as you rightly point out not that many people die each year (as a percentage of us fortunately ). Basically any house inside the M25 and just about any two bed flat inside the North Circular as well as many three bed houses in many parts of average cities (eg Cardiff where I am) are beyond or nudging that limit. Add in some life assurance and many folk who "have done ok" but are utterly not the "rich" are going to get involved with IHT.Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?
If you have life assurance, you should put it in a flexible trust - at the very least it avoids potential probate delays on death and it could be IHT efficient too depending on the circumstances. All main insurers provide trust templates, it can be done at the time of taking out the cover or even years down the line and is normally a no-brainer.
There are times it's not appropriate but generally it's worth doing and is free.
If you have life or earlier critical illness cover then you want a split trust (so you can benefit if you have a CIC) but you / your estate doesn't if you die!
Death in service by employers is a different kettle of fishand there you'd probably want a spousal bypass trust set up for any payment.0 -
I have also watched the Scottish stair heid rammy that was on the BBC this morning. Yet another compelling argument against independence. If this is the best our political class can do then we need help from elsewhere.
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I fancy Palin if she runs; and thats the question: Will she?0
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It does seem improbable it will be as much of a sure thing as general public perception would have it. She's been in public life for a long time, as Morris says she has a lot of baggage as a result, and although none of the other possibilities are standing out at the moment, the prospect of a newer candidate grasping the public imagination - if obviously not as much as Obama did - seems a genuine risk for her.hunchman said:
After Iowa in 2008 and Hilary finishing 3rd, I don't think the nomination is as sure a thing for her as many people on here think.kle4 said:I really hope Clinton at the least is made to work hard for the nomination, should she get it. Sure, we're going to get another interesting Republican field it looks like, but we've sampled that buffet quite a bit in recent elections, we need the different flavour that should come with a tight Democratic race I think.
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If you're in Devon, shoot a dog, it is what the Liberals would want.bigjohnowls said:If Clegg survives on 3rd recount I will be forced to torch the farm
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I live in a 5 bedroom house in Surbiton and also own a 3 bed semi in Chiswick. The Tories have probably helped me.welshowl said:
IHT take is surely due to rocket both in absolute amounts and in percentage of estates it affects as this is the mother of all fiscal drags. Essentially the allowance had trodden water whilst asset prices have risen and as you rightly point out not that many people die each year (as a percentage of us fortunately ). Basically any house inside the M25 and just about any two bed flat inside the North Circular as well as many three bed houses in many parts of average cities (eg Cardiff where I am) are beyond or nudging that limit. Add in some life assurance and many folk who "have done ok" but are utterly not the "rich" are going to get involved with IHT.Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?
However, since Edward Samuel Miliband is going to be PM [ and I shall be voting Labour ], the Tory bribe is just academic.
By the way, the £1m threshold only applies to the family home or PPR. This could have a profound effect on housing.
If a couple was living in a £1m house and were prepared to downsize and move to a 2 bed flat and rent out the house, they need to think again.
From my example, it would make sense for me to live in the more expensive one even if I didn't want to.
Luckily, the bribe will not be law !0 -
Do you want to swap votes with me?bigjohnowls said:Hastily arranging postal votes.
Must pay attention Bugger Bugger Bugger
I've got Bercow, Bercow, Bercow & Kipper.0 -
Really!MikeK said:I fancy Palin
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Oh dear sounds like a local solicitors firm and UKIPScrapheap_as_was said:
Do you want to swap votes with me?bigjohnowls said:Hastily arranging postal votes.
Must pay attention Bugger Bugger Bugger
I've got Bercow, Bercow, Bercow & Kipper.0 -
Spoil your ballot paper by drawing a phallus and an arrow pointing to it from John Bercow's name.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Do you want to swap votes with me?bigjohnowls said:Hastily arranging postal votes.
Must pay attention Bugger Bugger Bugger
I've got Bercow, Bercow, Bercow & Kipper.0 -
kle4 2008 was the tightest Democratic nomination race in history, Sanders is likely to challenge Hillary though0
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DavidL Hillary is the only Democratic who beats the GOP top tier in the polls, she is the only chance of preventing a GOP win, which historically would be the norm after 2 terms of a Democratic president0
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I wonder if they realise that their completely crackpot policies have the potential to undermine the things they genuinely have a chance of influencing and sometimes even have the core arguments on their side (eg. fracking/climate change) if people associate the two under the broad brush of "green issues".HYUFD said:Green Party would raise top rate of income tax to 60%, the party could also ban horse and greyhound racing
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/green-party-plans-raise-top-rate-income-tax-60-1496022
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I expect that Clinton will win, unless the Republicans have an attack of sanity and select JEB Bush. Then there might be a contest. The thickos of the tea party however would rather loose (again) and stay pure rather than pragmatic.
The fact than Republicans keep loosing because the tea party would rather lose than be attractive to a majority should send a warning to the usual crowd of thicko tory backbenchers.0 -
I think personality is important in a woman.surbiton said:
Well she is a mother of five. But why should that be a hindrance.MikeK said:I fancy Palin: Will she?
The hindrance is she might be missing a vital organ. It is called a brain !
Don;t tell Mrs BJ i said that or maybe do it might get me out of Devon break.
Anyone know where i find the Loch BTW0 -
A Relevant Life policy can be written in trust though.Scrapheap_as_was said:
FREE ADVICEwelshowl said:
IHT take is surely due to rocket both in absolute amounts and in percentage of estates it affects as this is the mother of all fiscal drags. Essentially the allowance had trodden water whilst asset prices have risen and as you rightly point out not that many people die each year (as a percentage of us fortunately ). Basically any house inside the M25 and just about any two bed flat inside the North Circular as well as many three bed houses in many parts of average cities (eg Cardiff where I am) are beyond or nudging that limit. Add in some life assurance and many folk who "have done ok" but are utterly not the "rich" are going to get involved with IHT.Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?
If you have life assurance, you should put it in a flexible trust - at the very least it avoids potential probate delays on death and it could be IHT efficient too depending on the circumstances. All main insurers provide trust templates, it can be done at the time of taking out the cover or even years down the line and is normally a no-brainer.
There are times it's not appropriate but generally it's worth doing and is free.
If you have life or earlier critical illness cover then you want a split trust (so you can benefit if you have a CIC) but you / your estate doesn't if you die!
Death in service by employers is a different kettle of fishand there you'd probably want a spousal bypass trust set up for any payment.0 -
Thats a great site. Worth bookmarking.hunchman said:UKIP top of the ballot paper in Boston and Skegness - a marginal help?
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/65969/boston-and-skegness
I just checked out Fox jr's Constituency (Nowich South) and see the Green candidate is a local councillor and a Jewish Quaker. Interesting!0 -
Isn't her current status largely down to name recognition compared to other potential Democratic candidates? Hasn't everyone been saying for ages that the Presidential election demographics are strongly favouring the Democrats - if somebody can beat her in the Primaries then they've got to have a big chance in the National poll.HYUFD said:DavidL Hillary is the only Democratic who beats the GOP top tier in the polls, she is the only chance of preventing a GOP win, which historically would be the norm after 2 terms of a Democratic president
She'd be a disaster.
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kle4 More like the Ted Cruz of the left, anti war, anti Wall Street etc, he was a Socialist before becoming a Democrat0
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The only people it will help are the people who will inherit your estate. You will be dead. If you want to help yourself I suggest downsizing and spending everything thats left in your retirement. Thus the only tax that you will pay is VAT.surbiton said:
I live in a 5 bedroom house in Surbiton and also own a 3 bed semi in Chiswick. The Tories have probably helped me.welshowl said:
IHT take is surely due to rocket both in absolute amounts and in percentage of estates it affects as this is the mother of all fiscal drags. Essentially the allowance had trodden water whilst asset prices have risen and as you rightly point out not that many people die each year (as a percentage of us fortunately ). Basically any house inside the M25 and just about any two bed flat inside the North Circular as well as many three bed houses in many parts of average cities (eg Cardiff where I am) are beyond or nudging that limit. Add in some life assurance and many folk who "have done ok" but are utterly not the "rich" are going to get involved with IHT.Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?
However, since Edward Samuel Miliband is going to be PM [ and I shall be voting Labour ], the Tory bribe is just academic.
By the way, the £1m threshold only applies to the family home or PPR. This could have a profound effect on housing.
If a couple was living in a £1m house and were prepared to downsize and move to a 2 bed flat and rent out the house, they need to think again.
From my example, it would make sense for me to live in the more expensive one even if I didn't want to.
Luckily, the bribe will not be law !0 -
Alex The Greens are now an unashamed left of Labour, anti rich party, they are a long way from the simple eco warriors and organics of old0
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I quite fancy her too. But certainly not in the way you are meaning. There again I am getting well into middle age so that might account for my strange tastes.MikeK said:I fancy Palin if she runs; and thats the question: Will she?
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Alex No, Biden is the Vice President and loses to Republicans Hillary beats. Demographics help the Democrats so far, the natural swing of the pendulum will favour Republicans in 20160
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Not quite so simple. My only son is severely autistic. I need to leave behind a life time of funds for his upkeep.Flightpath said:
The only people it will help are the people who will inherit your estate. You will be dead. If you want to help yourself I suggest downsizing and spending everything thats left in your retirement. Thus the only tax that you will pay is VAT.surbiton said:
I live in a 5 bedroom house in Surbiton and also own a 3 bed semi in Chiswick. The Tories have probably helped me.welshowl said:
IHT take is surely due to rocket both in absolute amounts and in percentage of estates it affects as this is the mother of all fiscal drags. Essentially the allowance had trodden water whilst asset prices have risen and as you rightly point out not that many people die each year (as a percentage of us fortunately ). Basically any house inside the M25 and just about any two bed flat inside the North Circular as well as many three bed houses in many parts of average cities (eg Cardiff where I am) are beyond or nudging that limit. Add in some life assurance and many folk who "have done ok" but are utterly not the "rich" are going to get involved with IHT.Scrapheap_as_was said:just reposting re the IHT discussion last thread and a couple of themes going on - one was about the reported stat that 90% of estates aren't liable to IHT and the other was the lefties IHT concern for non-married parents...
Always wonder about the stat that says it's 90% that it doesn't apply to - surely that's massively skewed by the first death of a married couple when the estate is just left to the widow?
the problem comes on the second death.
as for lefties moaning about IHT issues for non-married parents on this thread, perhaps they'd like to take that up with Darling and Brown who brought in the transferable IHT allowance for marries couples?
However, since Edward Samuel Miliband is going to be PM [ and I shall be voting Labour ], the Tory bribe is just academic.
By the way, the £1m threshold only applies to the family home or PPR. This could have a profound effect on housing.
If a couple was living in a £1m house and were prepared to downsize and move to a 2 bed flat and rent out the house, they need to think again.
From my example, it would make sense for me to live in the more expensive one even if I didn't want to.
Luckily, the bribe will not be law !0 -
Only if you tell her your Brian Williams and you would like to interview her.MikeK said:I fancy Palin Will she run?
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Are we expecting any polls other than YouGov tonight?0
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Pure name recognition at this stage I think. The e-mail stories were very damaging.HYUFD said:DavidL Hillary is the only Democratic who beats the GOP top tier in the polls, she is the only chance of preventing a GOP win, which historically would be the norm after 2 terms of a Democratic president
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Mr. Surbiton, sorry to hear that.0
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A lot of people, particularly in England, were surprised by George W Bush and couldn't understand how he beat Al Gore. I tend to think that there is potential for the same to be true in this electoral cycle. Clinton simply isn't as good as Obama at fighting an election campaign, and the air of inevitability that some would claim for her election runs the risk of complacency and entitlement.
I think it will be hard for her to capture the imagination of the public when she's been part of the scene for about two and a half decades. There's definitely potential for a Republican nominee to claim the mantle of the breath of fresh air that can attract Independents.
I don't know who that might be, but then I wouldn't have credited George W Bush with much of a chance. Clinton is beatable. She doesn't inspire and I don't think she has wide appeal.0 -
Personally, I want the last cheque I write to bounce. My interest in IHT is therefore zero.0
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DavidL No, otherwise Biden would also be leading Republicans like Hillary, he trails them. The e-mail stories hit her ratings a little, but she still leads the GOP field on the whole, it was more a beltway issue0
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3% lead for Lab on Yougov tonight.0
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But if she is beatable in the National Election then she should definitely be beatable in Democratic Primaries. If she is relying on "only person who can beat the GOP" then it's rather a vulnerable position since it can only worsen through a protracted campaign.OblitusSumMe said:A lot of people, particularly in England, were surprised by George W Bush and couldn't understand how he beat Al Gore. I tend to think that there is potential for the same to be true in this electoral cycle. Clinton simply isn't as good as Obama at fighting an election campaign, and the air of inevitability that some would claim for her election runs the risk of complacency and entitlement.
I think it will be hard for her to capture the imagination of the public when she's been part of the scene for about two and a half decades. There's definitely potential for a Republican nominee to claim the mantle of the breath of fresh air that can attract Independents.
I don't know who that might be, but then I wouldn't have credited George W Bush with much of a chance. Clinton is beatable. She doesn't inspire and I don't think she has wide appeal.
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Mr. P, welcome to the site.
Rather early for YouGov, isn't it?0 -
It is really more of an interest to those of us with elderly family. One day lad, all this could be yours!rcs1000 said:Personally, I want the last cheque I write to bounce. My interest in IHT is therefore zero.
As the saying goes :"Where there's a will, there's a relative"0 -
You can get a sneak preview on Yougov site if you root around a bit.0
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Daily Mirror @DailyMirror 2m2 minutes ago
George Osborne refuses to answer NHS funding question 18 TIMES in TV interview http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/george-osborne-refuses-answer-nhs-5507896 …
Small fry compared to the number of refusals to answer where the £12bn welfare cuts will fall0 -
Really are you sure? Good news if Lab 3pt lead is trueNickP said:You can get a sneak preview on Yougov site if you root around a bit.
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Mr. Owls, be fair. He would've only refused it twice if Marr had asked him the same number of times as he asked Harman about the Deed of Variation.0
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A William Cash standing for UKIP in North Warwickshire I see!
https://yournextmp.com/constituency/66024/north-warwickshire
At the last election when I told my parents they were in Stone (and voting for the well known William Cash) they didn't believe me, until their polling cards arrived - they're only about 200 yards into the constituency though!0 -
One remaining elderly parent, living on their own in a big expensive house. They are getting too old to cope on their own. A scenario surely familiar to thousands of families up and down the country. The solution is obvious - sell up and move into a care home or back under the roof of one of their children.foxinsoxuk said:
It is really more of an interest to those of us with elderly family. One day lad, all this could be yours!rcs1000 said:Personally, I want the last cheque I write to bounce. My interest in IHT is therefore zero.
As the saying goes :"Where there's a will, there's a relative"
But... doing this under the "no IHT on the family home" will cost £ hundreds of thousands in subsequent tax on their estate. Tricky.0 -
Obitus George W Bush had huge access to funds, name recognition and campaigned as a 'compassionate conservative' and was frontrunner from an early stage, and still lost the popular vote in 2000. The GOP field is divided and generally pretty average, it will be close, but Hillary can win, indeed the candidate she most resembles is Nixon in 19680
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Alex Unless and until another Democrat starts beating Republicans in the polls she will be nominee0
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Labour out of touch. Voters say inheritance tax most unfair:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/19/inheritance-tax-most-unfair/0 -
I see UKIP got a candidate to stand in Durham NW in the end then. My recollections of Bruce Reid was an awkward left arm Australian seamer from the 1980's!0
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The latest poll on there is the Sunday Times poll from yesterday.NickP said:You can get a sneak preview on Yougov site if you root around a bit.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/voting-intention/
Do you have a link to where you got your preview?0 -
I would have asked about IHT (Incredible Handout Tax) TBFMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, be fair. He would've only refused it twice if Marr had asked him the same number of times as he asked Harman about the Deed of Variation.
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Please, ask all you like. This is a trap the Conservatives will be all too happy for Labour to fall into and oppose.bigjohnowls said:
I would have asked about IHT (Incredible Handout Tax) TBFMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Owls, be fair. He would've only refused it twice if Marr had asked him the same number of times as he asked Harman about the Deed of Variation.
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Mr. Owls, hand-out tax? The government not claiming as much isn't a hand-out.
You responded to my pork chop hand-out post, but didn't acknowledge the basic truth of it. Cutting a tax isn't a government hand-out, anymore than me refusing to steal your lunch is the same as me giving you lunch.0 -
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She's already lost one Democratic Primary campaign, so she is certainly beatable.alex. said:
But if she is beatable in the National Election then she should definitely be beatable in Democratic Primaries. If she is relying on "only person who can beat the GOP" then it's rather a vulnerable position since it can only worsen through a protracted campaign.OblitusSumMe said:A lot of people, particularly in England, were surprised by George W Bush and couldn't understand how he beat Al Gore. I tend to think that there is potential for the same to be true in this electoral cycle. Clinton simply isn't as good as Obama at fighting an election campaign, and the air of inevitability that some would claim for her election runs the risk of complacency and entitlement.
I think it will be hard for her to capture the imagination of the public when she's been part of the scene for about two and a half decades. There's definitely potential for a Republican nominee to claim the mantle of the breath of fresh air that can attract Independents.
I don't know who that might be, but then I wouldn't have credited George W Bush with much of a chance. Clinton is beatable. She doesn't inspire and I don't think she has wide appeal.
Right now I get the feeling that her campaign are trying really hard to make her nomination seem inevitable to scare off any serious competition. They might succeed.0 -
I agree. It is not a tac cut that applies to me. My folks are fairly healthy (my 79 year old mother still beats me at tennis, but then she does have more experience of the game). Their Romsey house is probably well under the limit so not likely to be affected.alex. said:
One remaining elderly parent, living on their own in a big expensive house. They are getting too old to cope on their own. A scenario surely familiar to thousands of families up and down the country. The solution is obvious - sell up and move into a care home or back under the roof of one of their children.foxinsoxuk said:
It is really more of an interest to those of us with elderly family. One day lad, all this could be yours!rcs1000 said:Personally, I want the last cheque I write to bounce. My interest in IHT is therefore zero.
As the saying goes :"Where there's a will, there's a relative"
But... doing this under the "no IHT on the family home" will cost £ hundreds of thousands in subsequent tax on their estate. Tricky.
I do not expect to inherit in the near future. None of my Grandparents died before their 86th birthday and one made it to 98, and I hope my own parents go at least as long.0 -
Yes it is mildly amusing. Does a regularly cuckolded wife count as part of a dynasty?Morris_Dancer said:Mildly amused that political dynasties are more powerful in the US, whereas the UK (with its monarchy) has less [although they do exist].
Incidentally, one might argue such a long term trend was important in the decline of the Roman Republic.
Does the Tea Party and demographic shifts still tilt things against the reds?
The US President was effectively designed as an elected monarch.
The Americans are certainly polite - the younger brother patiently waits his turn.0 -
Wow never knew that.NickP said:https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre
In red top corner...the graphics get updated later.
Thanks tonights YG - EICIPM0 -
What a perverse world we live in where people keeping their own hard earned is called a handout while being asked to pay their rent is called a tax.
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The only actuary that I know for sure is standing at this election is Paul Kennedy for the Lib Dems in Mole Valley. He had an interesting page article in our profession's magazine last month.
Has Neil been on here of recent times? We might not agree about much, but his sense of humour is very funny0 -
If Hilary runs she wins both the nomination and the presidency and probably for two terms.0
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Tbf she was pretty unlucky the last time. Obama has been a very ordinary president but he was probably the greatest campaigner/candidate that the US has seen since the war. His victory against her was far more remarkable than anything he achieved thereafter.OblitusSumMe said:
She's already lost one Democratic Primary campaign, so she is certainly beatable.alex. said:
But if she is beatable in the National Election then she should definitely be beatable in Democratic Primaries. If she is relying on "only person who can beat the GOP" then it's rather a vulnerable position since it can only worsen through a protracted campaign.OblitusSumMe said:A lot of people, particularly in England, were surprised by George W Bush and couldn't understand how he beat Al Gore. I tend to think that there is potential for the same to be true in this electoral cycle. Clinton simply isn't as good as Obama at fighting an election campaign, and the air of inevitability that some would claim for her election runs the risk of complacency and entitlement.
I think it will be hard for her to capture the imagination of the public when she's been part of the scene for about two and a half decades. There's definitely potential for a Republican nominee to claim the mantle of the breath of fresh air that can attract Independents.
I don't know who that might be, but then I wouldn't have credited George W Bush with much of a chance. Clinton is beatable. She doesn't inspire and I don't think she has wide appeal.
Right now I get the feeling that her campaign are trying really hard to make her nomination seem inevitable to scare off any serious competition. They might succeed.
But it was 8 years ago. There is a time and a place and I fear it has passed.0 -
Oblitus Bernie Sanders will challenge her regardless on an anti-war, anti-Wall Street ticket and get about 25-30% of the Democratic primary vote0
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Several people locally tell me they are looking for vote-swapping partners on this site,
http://voteswap.org/
ingeniously designed to make it possible to maximise the Green vote while delivering non-Tory MPs.:
Tosser, toss thyself (to Boris not TSE).TheScreamingEagles said:
By the way, for avoidance of doubt, the poster NickP is not me. I'm sure he's fine, but wouldn't want any confusion.
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Mr. Chestnut, indeed, calling decreased tax a hand-out is certainly an abuse of language.0
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I think so too. Can OGH tip us a 50/1 outsider who can beat her?DavidL said:
Tbf she was pretty unlucky the last time. Obama has been a very ordinary president but he was probably the greatest campaigner/candidate that the US has seen since the war. His victory against her was far more remarkable than anything he achieved thereafter.OblitusSumMe said:
She's already lost one Democratic Primary campaign, so she is certainly beatable.alex. said:
But if she is beatable in the National Election then she should definitely be beatable in Democratic Primaries. If she is relying on "only person who can beat the GOP" then it's rather a vulnerable position since it can only worsen through a protracted campaign.OblitusSumMe said:A lot of people, particularly in England, were surprised by George W Bush and couldn't understand how he beat Al Gore. I tend to think that there is potential for the same to be true in this electoral cycle. Clinton simply isn't as good as Obama at fighting an election campaign, and the air of inevitability that some would claim for her election runs the risk of complacency and entitlement.
I think it will be hard for her to capture the imagination of the public when she's been part of the scene for about two and a half decades. There's definitely potential for a Republican nominee to claim the mantle of the breath of fresh air that can attract Independents.
I don't know who that might be, but then I wouldn't have credited George W Bush with much of a chance. Clinton is beatable. She doesn't inspire and I don't think she has wide appeal.
Right now I get the feeling that her campaign are trying really hard to make her nomination seem inevitable to scare off any serious competition. They might succeed.
But it was 8 years ago. There is a time and a place and I fear it has passed.0 -
Alex You can pay a lump sum and get an immediate need annuity to cover social care costs for the rest of your life0
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I would class a tax cut I received as a handout.
Tis a free world if you don;t want to Mr Dancer0
