politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly 2 in 5 CON members would vote to leave EU even if Da
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nearly 2 in 5 CON members would vote to leave EU even if Dave renogiated and recomended deal
521 of the 852 sample in YouGov CON members poll were aged 60+
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Interesting that Cameron is still so popular and persuasive amongst Tory members.
It's another terrrrr-ible afternoon for the Conservatives.
FPT in reply to ProfessorDavey
Sorry that is incorrect as you know full well, you quote a percentage of those that voted, as a percentage of those eligible to vote the drop has been greater by far
The turnout was about 65% in 2010 so the three main parties got 57.2% of total votes
picking 1979 for instance turnout was 76% total top 3 vote was 94.6%
Therefore top 3 vote share was 71.90% of total votes
That is a drop of 14% in support from the voting population over 30 years
However you keep telling yourself the drop is minimal but sooner or later those people who have stopped voting due to the general crapness of our political classes are going to get fed up and find a voice again and it won't be voting for your lib lab or con
Now it's possible I'm completely wrong on this and misjudging Cameron's character, but I would venture to suggest that his track record so far is a better fit for my position than it is for yours.
I remember when he was on 90% approval ratings
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGRabkF6R2dtNkxqZnRHUHk0cE5fM0E
"Tory members trust David Cameron on the EU. Here's the poll that proves it
If David Cameron says he has renegotiated a good settlement for Britain, Tory members would vote to stay in the EU"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10129906/Tory-members-trust-David-Cameron-on-the-EU.-Heres-the-poll-that-proves-it.html
The data:
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/kkgf9pwnqb/YouGov-Bale&Webb-Survey-Results-David-Cameron-EU.pdf
Quick PB straw poll
Select 1 or 2
1) Dave will admit he was crap at negotiating and recommend to leave the EU if he doesn't get what he wants
2) Dave will claim he negotiated brilliantly and secured all he wanted even if the net effect of negotiations is even more sovereignty to Brussels
If I may borrow a description
David Cameron just like plankton only taller
Could he come back saying 'they are only offering us peanuts - I can't recommend this sh*t'....??
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/
Give them a centimetre and they take a kilometre.
Even if Cameron oversaw our withdrawal from the EU they'd complain it was the wrong sort of exit.
I think you are optimistic, though, on the next opportunity. If Cameron loses, the Tories will tear themselves apart - let's say it will be 2025 at the earliest before they can win an election. Next you need a causi belli to create the situation where a referendum is possible. Treaties only tend to come around every 10-15 years, so possibly there may be one in 2030?
Effectively you are saying: Charles, sorry mate, your generation doesn't get to have a say about whether you want most of your life to be spent in the EU or not.
I feel it's important to declare that I am not a Mexican cat attempting to become mayor of Jalapa.
Certainties:
1 The stronger UKIP is, the more likely there will be a referendum.
2 Cameron is the wrong man to organise a Brexit.
3 Cameron is an enemy of BOO.
It is understood the duchess and Prince William have not been told the baby's sex as they want it to be a surprise.":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22976895
"The practice of the Home Secretary being present at a royal birth ended in 1936. "
http://www.scribd.com/doc/148763979/St-Letter
Doesn't answer a single question - who does he think he is - the Prime Minister?
Fine fellow, well done.
"I'd have thought the more concerning thing for you would be this says you'll lose a referendum. UKIP are in no shape to win it if we got one."
This is probably right---the referendum is more likely to be lost than won, though I would have thought it would be close.
To be sure of winning one, we'd need a tory leader in favour of leaving the EU.
The tory line---'you have to vote tory to get a referendum'---thus carries no weight.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-22969869
Twigg's reply does not even attempt to answer any of the questions, and just name-calls.
It's particularly funny the way he claims that there is a looming teacher shortage, without realising that his policies will remove teachers from schools and hence worsen that shortage.
He'd get an F in any school for that reply.
It also shows Labour haven't exactly thought these policies through.
I'm working to promote BOO for my grandchildren, and their issue after them.
That should warrant an F, or A* under Labours' grade inflation
Now in your secret dream wishlist who'd you rather lead Labour into the 2015 GE if OGH successfully pushed Ed under a bus in an attempt tp promote betting opportunities ??
Fs all round.
@WikiGuido
Er @StephenTwigg, I think you mean "carrier pigeon", not "pigeon carrier". Stay after class.
He probably wishes he hadn't bothered now
""I have to confess that I didn't know they were going to say 'presented by the secretary for education' until I actually saw the first Bible," he said."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/25/michael-gove-bibles-schools-plan
That said, the decision is not ultimately Cameron's. This issue does matter to Tory members, Tory MPs and Tory cabinet ministers and Cameron cannot credibly lead a campaign (or party or government) if the majority of his MPs are taking the opposite view of what he and his government have negotiated. If the deal isn't acceptable, though the poll suggests there's plenty of goodwill to draw on so it probably will be, but if it's not, Cameron will have to choose between losing his premiership or advocating Out.
Next up, that b*stard Don Foster.
Haven't laughed so much since Dave Prentice's Kate Middleton "joke".
Labour conference must be a right laugh.
Bend over Twigg .... Thwack !!
(SOrry JackW, please dont make me eat your pies!)
Stephen Twigg is inconsistent with his serial commas.
Cruddas certainly would be interesting .... as in fatal !!
You can find one here: http://instantrimshot.com
Everyone remembers their best teachers, and he was one of mine. Here endeth the anecdote.
"Eastleigh Lib dem Jailed Again"
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2013/06/another-eastleigh-liberal-democrat-goes-to-jail-naked-rambler-stephen-gough/
Actually if you factor in turnout the proportion of the total electorate voting for the big three parties has actually risen over the past three general elections as turnout rose from 2001 to 2005, and then again to 2010. And the rise in turnout more than balances the fall in vote share for the big three parties of those that actually voted.
Part-time teachers (especially if an MP) are fine. Full-time not.
So what are the definitions of full-time and part-time? Would a class being taught by two part-time teachers working 50% of the time with no full-time interaction be fine, yet one unqualified teacher teaching full-time be wrong?
And why 'especially an MP?' I can understand why an MP might go into to give talks to a school, but have yet to see a reason why an electoral mandate suddenly gives them teaching qualifications?
Especially when the majority do not know basic maths.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19801666
Or is indoctrination your aim?
You must be really embarrassed by Stephen Twigg's letter!
Here's a story from 8 years ago:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4526154.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jun/19/naked-rambler-stephen-gough-jailed-asbo
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-22972020
Despite the fact I was fully clothed in the glorious weather.
Later, someone sent me an email threatening to 'crash my servers' after having the temerity to criticise the 'freedom fighter' Gough on my website. Needless to say, nothing happened.
Besides, I'm better looking naked than him... :-)
An exceedingly heart-warming story from Afghanistan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22943454
I particularly like this response by a five-year old girl. It could teach Gove brevity:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/06/michael-gove-kindly-warns-stephen-twigg-people-think-youre-weak/
So we could have full-time unpaid 'teachers' teaching our children, but if they are paid it becomes wrong? That is absolutely ludicrous.
Twigg and Labour have really f'ed this up.
I am saying it is fine for interesting people to give talks to students or to teach specific (ie, one-off or specifically defined) classes in areas related to their primary expertise, though I would expect qualified teachers to be there too in case pupils got unruly, there was some kind of disruption or other incident which the unqulaified guest is not trained to deal with. I am saying it is not fine for unqualified individuals to be paid to teach regular curriculum-based classes. And I am saying it is downright dangerous for non-qualified individuals to teach at primary level. If you do not understand the difference or if you disagree, then there is not much I can do about that.
http://tyneandwear.sky.com/news/article/71322/haggis-not-scottish-claims-burns-night-dish-was-invented-by
What has Tristiam Hunt been doing? If the above, that is fine. If he has been unsupervised, then it is not, and Gove is in the wrong to suggest otherwise.
But if you are talking about downright dangerous, what are your views on the latest wonderful (ahem) news from the NHS under Labour?
Labour has shown that they were right: the NHS was safe in their hands. Sadly, the patients were not. Labour prefer the NHS as an organisation to the patients.
“Dear Nicolas, very briefly and respectfully,
1) I am by your side to serve you and serve your plans for France.
2) I tried my best and might have failed occasionally. I implore your forgiveness.
3) I have no personal political ambitions and I have no desire to become a servile status seeker, like many of the people around you whose loyalty is recent and short-lived.
4) Use me for as long as it suits you and suits your plans and casting call.
5) If you decide to use me, I need you as a guide and a supporter: without a guide, I may be ineffective and without your support I may lack credibility. With my great admiration, Christine L.”
•Ted Cruz 25%
•Rand Paul 13%
•Marco Rubio 11%
•Rick Perry 10%
•Chris Christie 8%
•Paul Ryan 8%
•Rick Santorum 2%
•Bobby Jindal 2%