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Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority? politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,863
    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    We must stop being in hock only to the bond markets.

    No one voted for the bond markets.


    https://x.com/ZackPolanski/status/2060784820058235342

    They pretty much did vote for them, when they voted in Governments who spent more than they took in tax.
    Indeed.

    Consistently run a budget surplus and there's little the bond markets can or will do.
    Yes.
    Any ideas how to do that and be re elected?
    Seriously?
    Go in, day 1, do it. Take an axe to spending left right and centre. In particular, axe some whole programs, rather than trying to trim everything.

    Welfare, pensions etc goes in the blender, comes out cheaper and less wide ranging.

    Bin most of the MOD, sack all the procurement staff, buy standard kit wherever possible. It's apparent we've no meaningful capability left anyway, so why are we wasting all the cash?

    Same time, bonfire of regulation, and get the entire tax code down to 4 sides of A4 at 11 point text. Simple, straightforward taxation. Tax consumption rather than employment as far as possible.

    Explain that it's going to be painful, that the payoff won't be instant, but it will all be worth it.

    Grit your teeth and get on with it for 4 years, hopefully without too many riots. With any luck, by then your deregulation and tax simplification will start to get the economy motoring, and your fiscal position is improving substantially. Use some of your accumulated savings to pay for tax cuts as you approach the GE.

    Also - be straight and level with people about what you're doing and why. Avoid scandals, drop any misbehaving MPs instantly. Ensure no one has a just cause against you, other than a dislike of your actual policies.

    Do all that, and you'll be hitting Starmer levels of popularity in years 2-3, but should bounce back magnificently as the payoff starts to occur.
    This sounds great, but if it is feasible to reduce the 16,366 pages of tax law and regulation to four pages we need to be shown how it's done.
    As it is only four pages this ought not to be complicated. Can AI help?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,828

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    The treble-chin-and-gin ignorance is of note. The belief that IT is just about “make my Excel work” is why many U.K. software startups end up seeking US investment.
    Software "engineers" are not Engineers.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,987
    Comeback from Andy Burnham:

    Are you getting desperate, lad?

    Maybe keep your crypto millions for something else
    . 😂

    https://x.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/2060806156986003807

    Not generally impressed by this stuff but Farage's dismal slander needs to be faced down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,912
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    The west is increasingly outsourcing its innovation as well as its manufacturing.
    I'm not sure that ends well.

    Pfizer just signed a $10.5 billion licensing deal to develop a set of early-stage oncology treatments from China’s Innovent.

    Last year, foreign pharma companies signed over $137 billion in licensing deals with Chinese biotech firms, a boom that seems set to continue.

    https://x.com/kyleichan/status/2060817971539263958

    The Trump administration is considering excluding Chinese biotech from deals in the US.

    There is a fundamental flaw with the argument: “U.S. is 70% of global profits in tx and therefore can dictate which therapies are allowed in the U.S., including excluding China assets".

    The weight bearing assumption is that China’s biotech industry will not be able to sustain itself without US market.

    This does not conform with reality.

    Prior to 2022, Chinese biotech industry had minimal capital inflows from outlicensing / newco’s to US / Western pharma AND a very austere tx pricing environment domestically. Yet significant companies grew to dominate the domestic market, and many Chinese biotechs managed to move up the innovation curve.

    Do you think that Chinese biotechs sprang up overnight in Dec 2022 when this out licensing wave started? Akeso, Keymed, Hengrui, Hansoh, Innovent, and so many others have been around for years - pretty much all of them starting off by making drugs for the domestic China market. US out licensing deals were few and far in between, and yet many of them became $ B+ or $10’s Bn companies in the process.

    Furthermore, in recent months the Chinese payor market is now getting better at rewarding true innovation. 2025 NRDL reform introduced a higher pricing tier for true innovation (not me-betters). Domestic economics for first-in-class assets are getting meaningfully stronger, regardless of the exit to Western pharma path.

    From a unit economics perspective, "removing the exit to the West will kill Chinese biotech progress" argument just isn’t supported by facts on the ground.

    Another serious drawback to the banning argument is that presumes Chinese drugs are only me betters or me toos that are knock offs of western efforts (and will continue to be).

    This, too, does not conform with reality.

    Chinese biotechs are now making net new innovative drugs across ADCs, in vivo CARs, genetic medicines and many more modalities, going after novel targets, payloads, and incorporating delivery tech that we have not seen here in the west; and if they work clinically - US patients will want access to as they will improve the clinical treatment paradigm.

    I have spoken to the Chinese biotech CEOs and seen these programs. Some will work and some won’t (that’s just drug discovery), but they are coming, and there is no use in arguing about it.

    Do you think it will be acceptable that US patients will not have access to best in class / first in class drugs?

    so to summarize: in the US, we have an industry that is *losing* pricing power (no matter if R or Ds are in power, tx pricing pressure is on the docket), trying to keep drugs being made from a country with *increasing* pricing power (based on government support) out, at a time when those drugs are increasingly innovative.

    Who do you think the actual loser from this is going to be?

    https://x.com/davidycli/status/2060931351251910988
    Tech bans simply aren't very effective on an economy the size that China now has.
    Short term pain for them, but long term loss for us.

    Huawei chairman thanks the US for export restrictions on chips, says it supercharged China’s semiconductor industry — Washington’s export controls encouraged Chinese firms to invest in R&D and build their own tech stack competing with American tech
    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/huawei-chairman-thanks-the-us-for-supercharging-chinas-semiconductor-industry-washingtons-export-controls-encouraged-chinese-firms-to-invest-in-r-and-d-and-build-their-own-tech-stack-competing-with-american-technologies

    China barely had a semiconductor equipment manufacturing sector, and Westen companies had a near 100% market share.

    The Trump and Biden export controls, which became increasingly restrictive, incentivised China to develop their own, increasingly competitive industry.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,987
    edited May 31

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    The treble-chin-and-gin ignorance is of note. The belief that IT is just about “make my Excel work” is why many U.K. software startups end up seeking US investment.
    I have no problem with software engineers. I used to be one myself. The problems I have with Badenoch claiming to be particularly qualified because she's an engineer are (a) Why? I have never seen any obviously great prime ministers amongst my former colleagues. And (b) Badenoch was a software engineer for a short time a long time ago and was desperate to be a lawyer instead.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,434
    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    ...says State Pension benefits recipient @malcolmg
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,434
    FF43 said:

    Comeback from Andy Burnham:

    Are you getting desperate, lad?

    Maybe keep your crypto millions for something else
    . 😂

    https://x.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/2060806156986003807

    Not generally impressed by this stuff but Farage's dismal slander needs to be faced down.
    I had to smile at the C*nt of Monte Crypto epithet in one of the replies.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755
    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,434

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,434

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    The treble-chin-and-gin ignorance is of note. The belief that IT is just about “make my Excel work” is why many U.K. software startups end up seeking US investment.
    Software "engineers" are not Engineers.
    Are electronics engineers "engineers"?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,912
    edited May 31
    Cancer jab can eradicate entire tumours in patients, trial shows
    Jab brought ‘unprecedentedly strong responses’ in patients whose disease had become resistant to chemotherapy and immunotherapy
    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2026/may/30/cancer-jab-can-eradicate-entire-tumours-in-patients-trial-shows
    ...In the trial, 102 patients with head and neck cancer, the world’s sixth most common cancer, were given the jab. Tumours shrank or disappeared completely in 43 patients, including 28 whose tumours shrank significantly and 15 who saw them eradicated entirely.

    Researchers said the injection had also shown similar results in patients with lung cancer. Amivantamab, developed by Johnson & Johnson, is now being evaluated in about 60 clinical trials, primarily for lung cancer, but also for colorectal, brain and gastric cancers.

    The smart jab targets cancer in three ways. It blocks both EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor), a protein that helps tumours grow, and MET, a pathway that cancer cells often use to escape treatment. It also helps activate the immune system to attack the tumour...

  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623

    We must stop being in hock only to the bond markets.

    No one voted for the bond markets.


    https://x.com/ZackPolanski/status/2060784820058235342

    Ah, this is Compass who are very influential with Andy Burnham and his thinking.

    The progressive alliance brigade.

    Gary Stevenson was there banging on about wealth taxes too.

    Lovely stuff. Just check the twitter feed for what a Burnham PM would bring us.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,526

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755
    kle4 said:

    More Sturgeoning! More Murrelling! Turn it up to 11!

    New Scotland Westminster poll.
    Norstat (Sunday Times) 27-29 May (1,002)

    34% (+5) SNP
    17% (-1) Reform
    16% (-3) Labour
    (others not yet published)
    Changes since Norstat 30 April.

    https://x.com/ammacj/status/2060834557818007776?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The criticism should continue, irrespective of whether it is 'working', since it remains reasonable to criticise. Things don't have to have political advantage to justify being raised.
    However it is not working as the English media/politicians would like. Maybe if they talked about all the billions the Wesminster mob robbed with their VIP chums they would fare better.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755

    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    We must stop being in hock only to the bond markets.

    No one voted for the bond markets.


    https://x.com/ZackPolanski/status/2060784820058235342

    They pretty much did vote for them, when they voted in Governments who spent more than they took in tax.
    Indeed.

    Consistently run a budget surplus and there's little the bond markets can or will do.
    Yes.
    Any ideas how to do that and be re elected?
    Seriously?
    Go in, day 1, do it. Take an axe to spending left right and centre. In particular, axe some whole programs, rather than trying to trim everything.

    Welfare, pensions etc goes in the blender, comes out cheaper and less wide ranging.

    Bin most of the MOD, sack all the procurement staff, buy standard kit wherever possible. It's apparent we've no meaningful capability left anyway, so why are we wasting all the cash?

    Same time, bonfire of regulation, and get the entire tax code down to 4 sides of A4 at 11 point text. Simple, straightforward taxation. Tax consumption rather than employment as far as possible.

    Explain that it's going to be painful, that the payoff won't be instant, but it will all be worth it.

    Grit your teeth and get on with it for 4 years, hopefully without too many riots. With any luck, by then your deregulation and tax simplification will start to get the economy motoring, and your fiscal position is improving substantially. Use some of your accumulated savings to pay for tax cuts as you approach the GE.

    Also - be straight and level with people about what you're doing and why. Avoid scandals, drop any misbehaving MPs instantly. Ensure no one has a just cause against you, other than a dislike of your actual policies.

    Do all that, and you'll be hitting Starmer levels of popularity in years 2-3, but should bounce back magnificently as the payoff starts to occur.
    Serious cuts to welfare are guaranteed to tank the economy because every penny of that gets spent on consumption. That coupled with a rapid shift to consumption taxes would cause a depression-level recession.

    Wealth and property tax otoh would have little effect on consumption whilst providing an opportunity to cut the deficit and eventually reduce debt.

    Level the playing field on income tax / NI so that earned income is not taxed at higher rates than investment/pension income.
    shake that money tree, the cry of the champagne socialists
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    I'm sure you're not 100% serious about the lowering of standards, but the widening of backgrounds would in general be a good thing. Not to fetishise the working and lower middle classes and assume they'd make better MPs (no reason they should), but doctors and lawyers are more than capable of being utter cretins (twitter has shown this many times), but they get a presumed level of positive quality even when (for lawyers at least) they are not liked or trusted. Whereas a builder might be accused of being sneaky if they are very obviously clever, as if that was a bad thing.
    Given on current polls if you are selected as a Conservative parliamentary candidate you only have about a 10-15% chance of winning a constituency at the next general election and becoming an MP, makes sense for Kemi to open the field to a broader range of applicants.

    The very high flying KCs and investment bankers and city solicitors and company execs who sought Tory seats and a fast track to the Cabinet aren't going to be deluging CCHQ and local associations with applications this time round
    They may have a chance then if all that dross disappears
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755

    Gordon Brown sold our gold. At the wrong time and at a knockdown proce. He preannounced it to the market He is a moron.


    You are far too kind to him, he is a lot worse than that
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    ...says State Pension benefits recipient @malcolmg
    bought and paid for many times over unlike the spongers largesse. I had to pay 50 years for the pittance , not lie in my bed watching a 85" TV.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    Very very quiet Taz. Only comment ever is to increase the largesse.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,420
    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,182
    Nigelb said:

    It is very funny that they're concerned about the "dignity" of the vice presidency.

    “Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff, recently advised Mr. Vance to take a break from social media, as have other officials in the West Wing, according to people familiar with those interactions, because the fighting was beneath his office”
    https://x.com/JoshKraushaar/status/2060690078167441670

    THey should be much more concerned about the president's vices.

    As revealed in the Epstein files, which he's accidentally forgotten to release.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,182

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    Slightly better than some of the remarks about SEND when we were discussing it a few weeks back.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    We must stop being in hock only to the bond markets.

    No one voted for the bond markets.


    https://x.com/ZackPolanski/status/2060784820058235342

    They pretty much did vote for them, when they voted in Governments who spent more than they took in tax.
    Populism in a nutshell. It sounds an easy hit. Bond markets? Yeh, bastards. All evil. All billionaires. etc etc. We don't need them. F*ck 'em.

    Back in planet reality, they are are just our creditors.

    We borrow and we owe.

    Increasingly thanks to the destruction of the Final Salary Pension system they are foreign.

    But it doesn't matter how you dress it up and squeal and rage and shout and shout until you are sick that it is not fair, the country borrowed the money and the country owes the money.

    That is the point. If you run a balanced budget, you can ignore the bond markets.

    If you want to borrow from them, they get a vote.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,410
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    I'm sure you're not 100% serious about the lowering of standards, but the widening of backgrounds would in general be a good thing. Not to fetishise the working and lower middle classes and assume they'd make better MPs (no reason they should), but doctors and lawyers are more than capable of being utter cretins (twitter has shown this many times), but they get a presumed level of positive quality even when (for lawyers at least) they are not liked or trusted. Whereas a builder might be accused of being sneaky if they are very obviously clever, as if that was a bad thing.
    Given on current polls if you are selected as a Conservative parliamentary candidate you only have about a 10-15% chance of winning a constituency at the next general election and becoming an MP, makes sense for Kemi to open the field to a broader range of applicants.

    The very high flying KCs and investment bankers and city solicitors and company execs who sought Tory seats and a fast track to the Cabinet aren't going to be deluging CCHQ and local associations with applications this time round
    They may have a chance then if all that dross disappears
    Delusion is an illness that is best treated early

    Web Hackers
    Foreign Exam opportunists
    Qualification fraudsters
    IT juniors
    Career Tory spads

    Apply here... Kemi will mould you in to her own mini me.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    yes, we have seen some of those water ski-ing in Mexico or other such pursuits. All tax free as well along with a house and £1 a week for council tax and choice of luxury car.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Not my opinion, just have a look at the recent elections.

    She says this 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had' so why are the Tories going backwards in every election fought under her watch, the Tories should be making net gains.
    The Conservatives can't shake off their record in government, in the eyes of right of centre voters.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,526
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
    This is an interesting substack on the Ukrainian strategy of collapsing the Russian army from behind. The 524 logistics vehicles Russia lost yesterday are as significant as the personel, and oil refineries (Saratov in flames again this morning). By the nature of the drone surveilled battlefield casualties are probably the most documented of any war.

    https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    If she's serious, this is good news. The party has been destroyed by selecting candidates ranging from merely awful to sociopathic in recent times. There are endless horror stories about it. Even as Boris removed the wets the party management was selecting worse ones. I hope there's also a significant role for local associations.
    Where did they get him/her from?, is a question I have frequently asked myself, over the past 25 years.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,755
    Sean_F said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Not my opinion, just have a look at the recent elections.

    She says this 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had' so why are the Tories going backwards in every election fought under her watch, the Tories should be making net gains.
    The Conservatives can't shake off their record in government, in the eyes of right of centre voters.
    Labour and Tories are cheeks of the same arse , hence the moron parties making headway except for in Scotland
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,571
    FF43 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    The treble-chin-and-gin ignorance is of note. The belief that IT is just about “make my Excel work” is why many U.K. software startups end up seeking US investment.
    I have no problem with software engineers. I used to be one myself. The problems I have with Badenoch claiming to be particularly qualified because she's an engineer are (a) Why? I have never seen any obviously great prime ministers amongst my former colleagues. And (b) Badenoch was a software engineer for a short time a long time ago and was desperate to be a lawyer instead.
    Spot on...

    The Right Wing Press totally silent on KEY QUESTIONS

    The Web hack
    The very strange African then UK education
    The complete fabrication of the US College offer
    The fact she's never had a job commensurate with her claims

    Imagine a Lab, LD, SNP, PC, Green leader with these glaring massive holes of proof, credibility and evidence.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,526
    edited May 31

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    Some years ago I was asked to review a patient for PIP.

    Yep, they still had Downs Syndrome...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    If she's serious, this is good news. The party has been destroyed by selecting candidates ranging from merely awful to sociopathic in recent times. There are endless horror stories about it. Even as Boris removed the wets the party management was selecting worse ones. I hope there's also a significant role for local associations.
    Local associations must have more role in picking the shortlist which they were largely denied at the last general election...
    Why must they?

    I don't mean that local parties picking candidates is inherently bad, and obviously it pleases members and may not be unreasonable to give them roles purely on a party management basis. But I'm curious if there is any indication the quality of locally picked candidates is any better than centralised control, or indeed whether either way does better come election time?

    I'd assume the effect is minimal, some right duffers parachuted in by national parties win all the time when the parties do well, but curious if outside party management there is any genuine benefit to be had.
    The problem is that the Conservative Party seems to attract pathological personalities.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    So it’s not across the board then ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
    This is an interesting substack on the Ukrainian strategy of collapsing the Russian army from behind. The 524 logistics vehicles Russia lost yesterday are as significant as the personel, and oil refineries (Saratov in flames again this morning). By the nature of the drone surveilled battlefield casualties are probably the most documented of any war.

    https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
    The main highway connecting Russia to Crimea via the occupied territory is now almost unusable, due to drone and missile strikes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,410

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    The treble-chin-and-gin ignorance is of note. The belief that IT is just about “make my Excel work” is why many U.K. software startups end up seeking US investment.
    Software "engineers" are not Engineers.
    Are electronics engineers "engineers"?
    You can be accredited to the Engineering Council as a software engineer, Chartered institute for IT (formerly BCS).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,987
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
    This is an interesting substack on the Ukrainian strategy of collapsing the Russian army from behind. The 524 logistics vehicles Russia lost yesterday are as significant as the personel, and oil refineries (Saratov in flames again this morning). By the nature of the drone surveilled battlefield casualties are probably the most documented of any war.

    https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
    The main highway connecting Russia to Crimea via the occupied territory is now almost unusable, due to drone and missile strikes.
    I don't think the highway is unusable yet, but it does look to be the Ukrainian intention to cut the land bridge. Which was also the aim of the failed 2023 counteroffensive.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,999
    Does anyone believe Sturgeon' s latest plea of innocence. ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,931

    Does anyone believe Sturgeon' s latest plea of innocence. ?

    Not remotely.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,390
    Sean_F said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Not my opinion, just have a look at the recent elections.

    She says this 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had' so why are the Tories going backwards in every election fought under her watch, the Tories should be making net gains.
    The Conservatives can't shake off their record in government, in the eyes of right of centre voters.
    Correlation isn't causation, but it's interesting that the Reform decline started when they accepted that run of defectors from the Conservative party.

    As for 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had', I'm impressed that Kemi has managed to memory hole Johnson and Truss so efficiently. Maybe it's that software engineering.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,314
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,987
    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
    This is an interesting substack on the Ukrainian strategy of collapsing the Russian army from behind. The 524 logistics vehicles Russia lost yesterday are as significant as the personel, and oil refineries (Saratov in flames again this morning). By the nature of the drone surveilled battlefield casualties are probably the most documented of any war.

    https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
    The main highway connecting Russia to Crimea via the occupied territory is now almost unusable, due to drone and missile strikes.
    I don't think the highway is unusable yet, but it does look to be the Ukrainian intention to cut the land bridge. Which was also the aim of the failed 2023 counteroffensive.
    The Ukrainians are capable of making their own decisions, and need to be allowed to do so. In their shoes however I would put my efforts into cutting off Crimea and then trading it for everything else, on the basis that Crimea is the only bit of Ukraine Russia really cares about. Also if Russia subsequently reneges an armed-to-the-teeth, Ukraine can cut off Crimea again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,182
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
    This is an interesting substack on the Ukrainian strategy of collapsing the Russian army from behind. The 524 logistics vehicles Russia lost yesterday are as significant as the personel, and oil refineries (Saratov in flames again this morning). By the nature of the drone surveilled battlefield casualties are probably the most documented of any war.

    https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
    The main highway connecting Russia to Crimea via the occupied territory is now almost unusable, due to drone and missile strikes.
    I don't think the highway is unusable yet, but it does look to be the Ukrainian intention to cut the land bridge. Which was also the aim of the failed 2023 counteroffensive.
    The Ukrainians are capable of making their own decisions, and need to be allowed to do so. In their shoes however I would put my efforts into cutting off Crimea and then trading it for everything else, on the basis that Crimea is the only bit of Ukraine Russia really cares about. Also if Russia subsequently reneges an armed-to-the-teeth, Ukraine can cut off Crimea again.
    The problem is that with Crimea under Russian control Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and therefore its ability to trade internationally is very severely restricted. This is why Lenin seized Crimea for the RSSR in the first place in 1920 - to thwart any attempt at Ukrainian statehood.

    So I can see your logic but that's actually a worse outcome for Ukraine in some quite important ways than the loss of Donetsk and Luhansk would be.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623

    Does anyone believe Sturgeon' s latest plea of innocence. ?

    Not really but the authorities seemed to so she’s fine and dandy.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    edited May 31

    Does anyone believe Sturgeon' s latest plea of innocence. ?

    No, because her argument is intellectually dishonest. At a literary festival, she was whining that she was being blamed as a woman, "who must have known" what her husband was doing.

    To the contrary, she's being blamed because she was the leader of the party, from whom he was stealing money, and she failed to have proper systems in place, to prevent it from happening. And, she was, to say the least, remarkably incurious about Peter Murrell's spending spree.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,205
    Brixian59 said:

    FF43 said:

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    The treble-chin-and-gin ignorance is of note. The belief that IT is just about “make my Excel work” is why many U.K. software startups end up seeking US investment.
    I have no problem with software engineers. I used to be one myself. The problems I have with Badenoch claiming to be particularly qualified because she's an engineer are (a) Why? I have never seen any obviously great prime ministers amongst my former colleagues. And (b) Badenoch was a software engineer for a short time a long time ago and was desperate to be a lawyer instead.
    Spot on...

    The Right Wing Press totally silent on KEY QUESTIONS

    The Web hack
    The very strange African then UK education
    The complete fabrication of the US College offer
    The fact she's never had a job commensurate with her claims

    Imagine a Lab, LD, SNP, PC, Green leader with these glaring massive holes of proof, credibility and evidence.
    Law degree with no significant practice as a lawyer? Sounds like Mrs Thatcher or Tony Blair.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,526

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    So he agrees with Polanski now...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,410
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035

    Sean_F said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Not my opinion, just have a look at the recent elections.

    She says this 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had' so why are the Tories going backwards in every election fought under her watch, the Tories should be making net gains.
    The Conservatives can't shake off their record in government, in the eyes of right of centre voters.
    Correlation isn't causation, but it's interesting that the Reform decline started when they accepted that run of defectors from the Conservative party.

    As for 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had', I'm impressed that Kemi has managed to memory hole Johnson and Truss so efficiently. Maybe it's that software engineering.
    I think that Kemi is playing an atrocious hand about as well as she can. The problem is, the hand is atrocious.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,931
    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Foxy said:

    Another 1,560 Russian troops not reporting for duty today in Ukraine. This follows on from 1,430 yesterday.

    Wanting to believe that but: where do you get those numbers from? And where do those Russians disappear to?
    They are figures from the Ukranian government but our own GCHQ figures are around the same.

    BBC News - Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo

    Double it for severe wounds, add in some missing and prisoners and thr figures look about right.
    Those are horrific numbers for a country whose population is already naturally declining by 500,000 a year.
    This is an interesting substack on the Ukrainian strategy of collapsing the Russian army from behind. The 524 logistics vehicles Russia lost yesterday are as significant as the personel, and oil refineries (Saratov in flames again this morning). By the nature of the drone surveilled battlefield casualties are probably the most documented of any war.

    https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-187-trying-to-collapse?r=1tgexa&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
    The main highway connecting Russia to Crimea via the occupied territory is now almost unusable, due to drone and missile strikes.
    A driver along that highway is going to have a life expectancy akin to WW2 u-boat crews...

    Crimea has been the base for a huge amount of manpower and kit. But it is just sat there, an army of occupation having no active role in supporting the SMO since the remains of the Black Sea Fleet skidaddled out of Sevastopol. The air defence is being significantly downgraded. Ukraine can choose its targets at will.

    There will come a point within months rather than years when the only reason for Russia hanging on to Crimea is Putin's bruised ego. Arguably it is already at that point. It can't be much fun there, either as a military posting or as a holiday destination. No fuel, food is going to be blockaded, ditto water. There can be no bigger neon sign that Russia Has Lost than losing Crimea.

    Which is why Putin will probably take a flying lesson from a high window first than withdraw.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,205

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
    And ?

    The main reason is not the only reason.

    If we’re not going to grow the economy substantially or grow revenues substantially then slowing the rapid growth of the benefits bill as a whole, as well as other spending, is going to be essential.

    Scrapping the triple lock alone won’t cut it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,317

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
    What is weird about all this is why didnt he simply believe the US president who proclaimed that Iran's nuclear programme had been destroyed forever in 2025?
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
    He was duped into it by the current Israeli regime, as per the NYT article. Their claims as to what would happen have all been proven to be false.

    Many previous US administrations simply refused to go along with it.

    Trump,is an idiot.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,317
    Sean_F said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Not my opinion, just have a look at the recent elections.

    She says this 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had' so why are the Tories going backwards in every election fought under her watch, the Tories should be making net gains.
    The Conservatives can't shake off their record in government, in the eyes of right of centre voters.
    The alternatives are clearly not great. All that is needed is a little bit of contrition and a little bit of reality about future public finances and they would be in the game with centrists again. They are pretty reluctant on both.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,317

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"
    I'm obviously no fan of Badenoch's but that post is just offensive stupidity.

    Gemini summarises her pre-politics work experience thus:

    Private Sector & Professional Experience (2003–2016)

    Badenoch holds a degree in Computer Systems Engineering from the University of Sussex and a part-time Law degree from Birkbeck, University of London.

    Software Engineer at Logica: Worked in the information technology sector from 2003 to 2006 for the tech firm Logica (which later became part of CGI Inc).

    Systems Analyst at RBS: Moved into financial tech, working on systems analysis and technology change programmes for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group.

    Associate Director at Coutts: Spent several years (2006–2013) at the private wealth manager and bank Coutts & Co., transitioning from tech infrastructure roles into financial compliance following the 2008 financial crisis.

    Digital Director at The Spectator: Headed up the non-editorial digital department for The Spectator magazine from 2015 to 2016.


    Impossible to tell the depth or quality of those roles from that but it's clearly more than 'very low level of work experience'.
    I wonder why we get Rachel from accounts and Kemi from work experience. It never seems to be Michael's or Graham's.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,603

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"





    The Kemi-hate is strong with this one.

    As is the misogyny.
    Yet Rachel from Accounts is hilarious?*

    * That is not a defence of Reeves, simply an observation.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future?

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    Do you think we should leave future generations to pick up the tab ?

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be increasing taxes and the costs of employing people. Tax something you generally get less of it.

    We should also value hospitality as an industry. It’s an industry that often gives young people a start in work.

    As for welfare incentives matter. Pay people to be idle and they will. Too many cliff edges and passports benefits will be lost if people work too many hours.

    It’s far more complex than your solution of a group hug.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,856
    So being parked at the mother in laws was not obvious because it wasn’t the drive where St Nicola parked.

    Right.

    She is a liar with a very selective memory.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,526

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Current projections on national polling are significant losses of Tory MPs next GE.

    So where will this new generation of MPs be?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,166
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    More Sturgeoning! More Murrelling! Turn it up to 11!

    New Scotland Westminster poll.
    Norstat (Sunday Times) 27-29 May (1,002)

    34% (+5) SNP
    17% (-1) Reform
    16% (-3) Labour
    (others not yet published)
    Changes since Norstat 30 April.

    https://x.com/ammacj/status/2060834557818007776?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    The criticism should continue, irrespective of whether it is 'working', since it remains reasonable to criticise. Things don't have to have political advantage to justify being raised.
    Yes, I’ve been greatly touched by the sincere concern for we poor defrauded SNP members.
    So because many do want to get political advantage out of the situation and may couch their questions in faux concern for others the genuine criticisms of how the political leadership failed to prevent the crimes taking place should just not happen?

    I'm genuinely confused as to what you think may be appropriate in the situation, since if we just ignore political criticism because many(most) of those criticising have skin in the game as it were, we'd never get much criticism at all. Almost by definition the side being criticised will (almost) never acknowledge fault beyond the 'sorry we got fooled' stage, and the side doing the criticising will overdo it in an effort to maximise their own advantage.

    One think I am curious about is what measures parties with bigger organisations have in place to, hopefully, prevent them from being ripped off.
    The Commons expenses system worked quite well in my experience - you submitted a claim monthly, and were politely informed by the independent office if anything was not eligible (effectively not primarily for non-partisan Commons work). I was pretty parsimonious - not sure how the office would have reacted if I'd often claimed unlikely stuff. Having the scrutiny done by an office separate from the parties seemed key. The SNP checking seems to have been done by a party office, who will have been reluctant to challenge the leader's partner.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,182

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
    What is weird about all this is why didnt he simply believe the US president who proclaimed that Iran's nuclear programme had been destroyed forever in 2025?
    Tbf, that’s easy. The President who made that announcement is a fantasist, forger and fluent liar whom you wouldn’t uncritically believe if he said rain was wet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,182
    Foxy said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    So he agrees with Polanski now...
    He always agreed with Polanski about underage gi…oh hang on, that’s a different Polanski.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,317
    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
    What is weird about all this is why didnt he simply believe the US president who proclaimed that Iran's nuclear programme had been destroyed forever in 2025?
    Tbf, that’s easy. The President who made that announcement is a fantasist, forger and fluent liar whom you wouldn’t uncritically believe if he said rain was wet.
    Thank you for your attention to this matter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,182

    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
    What is weird about all this is why didnt he simply believe the US president who proclaimed that Iran's nuclear programme had been destroyed forever in 2025?
    Tbf, that’s easy. The President who made that announcement is a fantasist, forger and fluent liar whom you wouldn’t uncritically believe if he said rain was wet.
    Thank you for your attention to this matter.
    Once you know the Truth, so shall it set you free.

    If you pay POTUS a big enough bribe, of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 57,526
    edited May 31
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future?

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    Do you think we should leave future generations to pick up the tab ?

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be increasing taxes and the costs of employing people. Tax something you generally get less of it.

    We should also value hospitality as an industry. It’s an industry that often gives young people a start in work.

    As for welfare incentives matter. Pay people to be idle and they will. Too many cliff edges and passports benefits will be lost if people work too many hours.

    It’s far more complex than your solution of a group hug.
    On that chart the trend lines are in the correct direction for a balanced budget over the next years.

    I am not in favour of deficits, indeed would rather have tax rises than government in the red.

    The long term projections are all about demographics and the worker/dependency ratio. It is in large part down to the zero net migration policy, so an ever aging population with fewer children or workers.

    There is a failure to acknowledge amongst immigration hawks that pensions and healthcare are dependent on young workers, and with our current TFR that means immigration. We have to choose.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,856
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2060893819151823150

    Trump: "We shouldn't have been in Iran"

    The significant part surely is that Trump swallowed the claim that Iran was mere months away from a nuclear weapon.
    What is weird about all this is why didnt he simply believe the US president who proclaimed that Iran's nuclear programme had been destroyed forever in 2025?
    Tbf, that’s easy. The President who made that announcement is a fantasist, forger and fluent liar whom you wouldn’t uncritically believe if he said rain was wet.
    Thank you for your attention to this matter.
    Once you know the Truth, so shall it set you free.

    If you pay POTUS a big enough bribe, of course.
    Or as Pratchet put it ‘The truth shall make you fret’
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,689
    https://youtu.be/IsUZa85brQE?si=UcVzw05s3qkCx7LT

    Malcolm Offord interviewed by Peter McCormack. I wasn't expecting much but I was pleasantly surprised - a bit of a secret weapon I think, and I'd like to think someone Farage could rely on a bit more compared to some of the more volatile people under his command.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,410
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
    And ?

    The main reason is not the only reason.

    If we’re not going to grow the economy substantially or grow revenues substantially then slowing the rapid growth of the benefits bill as a whole, as well as other spending, is going to be essential.

    Scrapping the triple lock alone won’t cut it.
    No, but it's the one you have to do otherwise any other cuts are pointless.
    Health, probably have to put half over 50s on weight loss jabs, healthy living campaigns don't seem to be effective.
    Then as Foxy says support and encourage the working age long-term sick into work.

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"
    I'm obviously no fan of Badenoch's but that post is just offensive stupidity.

    Gemini summarises her pre-politics work experience thus:

    Private Sector & Professional Experience (2003–2016)

    Badenoch holds a degree in Computer Systems Engineering from the University of Sussex and a part-time Law degree from Birkbeck, University of London.

    Software Engineer at Logica: Worked in the information technology sector from 2003 to 2006 for the tech firm Logica (which later became part of CGI Inc).

    Systems Analyst at RBS: Moved into financial tech, working on systems analysis and technology change programmes for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group.

    Associate Director at Coutts: Spent several years (2006–2013) at the private wealth manager and bank Coutts & Co., transitioning from tech infrastructure roles into financial compliance following the 2008 financial crisis.

    Digital Director at The Spectator: Headed up the non-editorial digital department for The Spectator magazine from 2015 to 2016.


    Impossible to tell the depth or quality of those roles from that but it's clearly more than 'very low level of work experience'.
    I wonder why we get Rachel from accounts and Kemi from work experience. It never seems to be Michael's or Graham's.
    We had Dave from mummy got him a job, and George from straight into politics
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,603
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future?

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    Do you think we should leave future generations to pick up the tab ?

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be increasing taxes and the costs of employing people. Tax something you generally get less of it.

    We should also value hospitality as an industry. It’s an industry that often gives young people a start in work.

    As for welfare incentives matter. Pay people to be idle and they will. Too many cliff edges and passports benefits will be lost if people work too many hours.

    It’s far more complex than your solution of a group hug.
    On that chart the trend lines are in the correct direction for a balanced budget over the next years.

    I am not in favour of deficits, indeed would rather have tax rises than government in the red.

    The long term projections are all about demographics and the worker/dependency ratio. It is in large part down to the zero net migration policy, so an ever aging population with fewer children or workers.

    There is a failure to acknowledge amongst immigration hawks that pensions and healthcare are dependent on young workers, and with our current TFR that means immigration. We have to choose.
    Maybe we could redeploy NEETS as brain surgeons on the living wage? Lots of Tory boxes ticked there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344
    God help us
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,317
    edited May 31
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future? The trend on government spending this parliament is downwards on that chart.

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    I don't understand why schools are still set up around a curriculum designed for 1900 rather than modern life. Of what we teach teenagers now I'd bin a third of it and replace it with exercise, nutrition and cooking, social skills and responsibilities, parenting, personal finance and how to use tech rather than let tech use you.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,418
    edited May 31

    theProle said:

    dixiedean said:

    We must stop being in hock only to the bond markets.

    No one voted for the bond markets.


    https://x.com/ZackPolanski/status/2060784820058235342

    They pretty much did vote for them, when they voted in Governments who spent more than they took in tax.
    Indeed.

    Consistently run a budget surplus and there's little the bond markets can or will do.
    Yes.
    Any ideas how to do that and be re elected?
    Seriously?
    Go in, day 1, do it. Take an axe to spending left right and centre. In particular, axe some whole programs, rather than trying to trim everything.

    Welfare, pensions etc goes in the blender, comes out cheaper and less wide ranging.

    Bin most of the MOD, sack all the procurement staff, buy standard kit wherever possible. It's apparent we've no meaningful capability left anyway, so why are we wasting all the cash?

    Same time, bonfire of regulation, and get the entire tax code down to 4 sides of A4 at 11 point text. Simple, straightforward taxation. Tax consumption rather than employment as far as possible.

    Explain that it's going to be painful, that the payoff won't be instant, but it will all be worth it.

    Grit your teeth and get on with it for 4 years, hopefully without too many riots. With any luck, by then your deregulation and tax simplification will start to get the economy motoring, and your fiscal position is improving substantially. Use some of your accumulated savings to pay for tax cuts as you approach the GE.

    Also - be straight and level with people about what you're doing and why. Avoid scandals, drop any misbehaving MPs instantly. Ensure no one has a just cause against you, other than a dislike of your actual policies.

    Do all that, and you'll be hitting Starmer levels of popularity in years 2-3, but should bounce back magnificently as the payoff starts to occur.
    Serious cuts to welfare are guaranteed to tank the economy because every penny of that gets spent on consumption. That coupled with a rapid shift to consumption taxes would cause a depression-level recession.

    Almost certainly not. Keynesian economics, though excellent for doing what it was designed to do, namely dealing with recessions caused by shocks to the financial system, has nothing to say about our current economic problem, which is a supply side strangled by over-regulation and over-taxation.

    A credible commitment to welfare cuts would reduce interest rates as the financial markets realise the government is finally serious about controlling spending, and increase the labour supply as scroungers were forced to go back to work.

    The huge increase in business confidence would get investment going again.

    There is a precedent for this - the 1979-1981 budgets tightly controlled public spending, reduced income tax and doubled VAT. And, in a famous letter to The Times after the 1981 budget, 364 Keynesian economists predicted a depression-level recession for exactly those reasons. (Though in fairness an equally large number supported the government).

    Instead, the economy started to grow again from the next quarter (see https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/pn2), and eventually boomed.

    Though there are differences between now and then (in particular, headline inflation is much lower than in the late 1970s, so we don't need the very high nominal interest rates of the period) hat's what the economy is crying out for now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,613
    'Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC she feels like she is "serving a sentence for a crime I did not commit", after her estranged husband admitted embezzling £400,000 from the SNP, the party she led for years.

    In an exclusive interview with Laura Kuenssberg, Scotland's former first minister refused to apologise for the scandal and struggled to hold back tears, recalling gifts from Peter Murrell that turned out to have been purchased with stolen money.

    Sturgeon told the BBC: "I am not responsible for the crimes that my former husband committed and I'm not going to apologise for somebody else's crimes."

    She has consistently denied any knowledge of Murrell's wrongdoing, committed between 2010 and 2022.

    The former first minister was not charged following a police investigation.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2027k1ev3zo
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
    And ?

    The main reason is not the only reason.

    If we’re not going to grow the economy substantially or grow revenues substantially then slowing the rapid growth of the benefits bill as a whole, as well as other spending, is going to be essential.

    Scrapping the triple lock alone won’t cut it.
    No, but it's the one you have to do otherwise any other cuts are pointless.
    Health, probably have to put half over 50s on weight loss jabs, healthy living campaigns don't seem to be effective.
    Then as Foxy says support and encourage the working age long-term sick into work.

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"
    I'm obviously no fan of Badenoch's but that post is just offensive stupidity.

    Gemini summarises her pre-politics work experience thus:

    Private Sector & Professional Experience (2003–2016)

    Badenoch holds a degree in Computer Systems Engineering from the University of Sussex and a part-time Law degree from Birkbeck, University of London.

    Software Engineer at Logica: Worked in the information technology sector from 2003 to 2006 for the tech firm Logica (which later became part of CGI Inc).

    Systems Analyst at RBS: Moved into financial tech, working on systems analysis and technology change programmes for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group.

    Associate Director at Coutts: Spent several years (2006–2013) at the private wealth manager and bank Coutts & Co., transitioning from tech infrastructure roles into financial compliance following the 2008 financial crisis.

    Digital Director at The Spectator: Headed up the non-editorial digital department for The Spectator magazine from 2015 to 2016.


    Impossible to tell the depth or quality of those roles from that but it's clearly more than 'very low level of work experience'.
    I wonder why we get Rachel from accounts and Kemi from work experience. It never seems to be Michael's or Graham's.
    We had Dave from mummy got him a job, and George from straight into politics
    Don’t disagree with encouraging people back into work but there has to be carrot and stick and Foxy’s solution of a group hug to get that going doesn’t cut it.

    We need to reform the system that pays people to be idle. Reform cliff edges and the loss of passported benefits too.

    Healthy living campaigns and other stuff they’ve done, like ad bans, has no effect at all. Lobbyists and activists claim it does but they mark their own homework.

    We have obesity levels and inactivity levels rising. The only people who benefit are those in the Quangos and lobbying groups making a living from it.

    Get people on the jabs. It’s happening already.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,327

    Does anyone believe Sturgeon' s latest plea of innocence. ?

    No.
    1. Her lack of questioning as to what was happening in her own household stretches credulity in itself.
    But if there were any doubt remember that she also
    2. Strained every sinew to shut down questions from others about the missing SNP funds and Murrell's role and ostracise those asking the questions (e.g. Cherry).
    3. Took on the role of acting SNP Treasurer after he and others had resigned because of her blocking, a massive conflict of interest.
    4. When faced with police questioning took the Omerta option in order not to risk incriminating herself. She's as innocent as a Mafia Don.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,788
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    So it’s not across the board then ?
    it an assertion from a telegraph article, it's bound to have only a passing resemblance to reality.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,537
    HYUFD said:

    More Sturgeoning! More Murrelling! Turn it up to 11!

    New Scotland Westminster poll.
    Norstat (Sunday Times) 27-29 May (1,002)

    34% (+5) SNP
    17% (-1) Reform
    16% (-3) Labour
    (others not yet published)
    Changes since Norstat 30 April.

    https://x.com/ammacj/status/2060834557818007776?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Which if Farage becomes PM doesn't mean anything, they would have more influence in a hung parliament with Burnham PM and needing their support
    If Farage becomes PM, support for Scottish independence will hit 60%.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,856
    HYUFD said:

    'Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC she feels like she is "serving a sentence for a crime I did not commit", after her estranged husband admitted embezzling £400,000 from the SNP, the party she led for years.

    In an exclusive interview with Laura Kuenssberg, Scotland's former first minister refused to apologise for the scandal and struggled to hold back tears, recalling gifts from Peter Murrell that turned out to have been purchased with stolen money.

    Sturgeon told the BBC: "I am not responsible for the crimes that my former husband committed and I'm not going to apologise for somebody else's crimes."

    She has consistently denied any knowledge of Murrell's wrongdoing, committed between 2010 and 2022.

    The former first minister was not charged following a police investigation.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2027k1ev3zo

    Even if you accept her innocence of the specific crimes, her lack of curiousity both at home and in her job as SNP leader is the crime she is being accused of. But she has always had a very selective memory. Her behaviour around the Salmond affair stinks, to be honest.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,604
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    Some years ago I was asked to review a patient for PIP.

    Yep, they still had Downs Syndrome...
    Or the paraplegic whose limbs had not regrown. They still had to fill out the forms (with my help) or they would find their PIP cancelled.

    The more difficult were those with MH conditions where they would be uncontactable for months and then appear when something had seriously gone wrong with the paperwork, and their lives became more chaotic than before. Set a lot of them back. Don' recall them waterskiing in Mexico or the 85" TV. If they did have one, the debt collectors usually took it to pay the debts they accumulated while trying to sort the DWP processes out.

    MalcolmG. If you have some time, volunteer. It will show you the highs and lows of how the system works. And yes there are those that play it but they are few and far between.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future?

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    Do you think we should leave future generations to pick up the tab ?

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be increasing taxes and the costs of employing people. Tax something you generally get less of it.

    We should also value hospitality as an industry. It’s an industry that often gives young people a start in work.

    As for welfare incentives matter. Pay people to be idle and they will. Too many cliff edges and passports benefits will be lost if people work too many hours.

    It’s far more complex than your solution of a group hug.
    On that chart the trend lines are in the correct direction for a balanced budget over the next years.

    I am not in favour of deficits, indeed would rather have tax rises than government in the red.

    The long term projections are all about demographics and the worker/dependency ratio. It is in large part down to the zero net migration policy, so an ever aging population with fewer children or workers.

    There is a failure to acknowledge amongst immigration hawks that pensions and healthcare are dependent on young workers, and with our current TFR that means immigration. We have to choose.
    And pro mass inward migration/open door fanatics need to realise we need to be fussy about our inward migration.

    Bringing in millions of Boriswavers with their economically inactive dependents who once they get ILR will be a net burden of £240 billion over their lifetime. Especially considering their entitlement to a pension and passport we’d benefits. Figures CPS.

    Skilled inward migration, especially wealth/job creators we should welcome and, indeed, roll the red carpet out for them.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,856
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
    And ?

    The main reason is not the only reason.

    If we’re not going to grow the economy substantially or grow revenues substantially then slowing the rapid growth of the benefits bill as a whole, as well as other spending, is going to be essential.

    Scrapping the triple lock alone won’t cut it.
    No, but it's the one you have to do otherwise any other cuts are pointless.
    Health, probably have to put half over 50s on weight loss jabs, healthy living campaigns don't seem to be effective.
    Then as Foxy says support and encourage the working age long-term sick into work.

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"
    I'm obviously no fan of Badenoch's but that post is just offensive stupidity.

    Gemini summarises her pre-politics work experience thus:

    Private Sector & Professional Experience (2003–2016)

    Badenoch holds a degree in Computer Systems Engineering from the University of Sussex and a part-time Law degree from Birkbeck, University of London.

    Software Engineer at Logica: Worked in the information technology sector from 2003 to 2006 for the tech firm Logica (which later became part of CGI Inc).

    Systems Analyst at RBS: Moved into financial tech, working on systems analysis and technology change programmes for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group.

    Associate Director at Coutts: Spent several years (2006–2013) at the private wealth manager and bank Coutts & Co., transitioning from tech infrastructure roles into financial compliance following the 2008 financial crisis.

    Digital Director at The Spectator: Headed up the non-editorial digital department for The Spectator magazine from 2015 to 2016.


    Impossible to tell the depth or quality of those roles from that but it's clearly more than 'very low level of work experience'.
    I wonder why we get Rachel from accounts and Kemi from work experience. It never seems to be Michael's or Graham's.
    We had Dave from mummy got him a job, and George from straight into politics
    Don’t disagree with encouraging people back into work but there has to be carrot and stick and Foxy’s solution of a group hug to get that going doesn’t cut it.

    We need to reform the system that pays people to be idle. Reform cliff edges and the loss of passported benefits too.

    Healthy living campaigns and other stuff they’ve done, like ad bans, has no effect at all. Lobbyists and activists claim it does but they mark their own homework.

    We have obesity levels and inactivity levels rising. The only people who benefit are those in the Quangos and lobbying groups making a living from it.

    Get people on the jabs. It’s happening already.
    People bang on a bout cliff edges and marginal tax rates for those on benefits but you need a culture shift that says getting handouts is a bad thing if you can support yourself. Brown wanted everyone to be a client of the state to increase reliance ON the state. This is terrible. The state should be the safety net,not a lifestyle option where you only work 16 hours a week to avoid paying tax/losing benefits.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,604
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    She is right and good on her

    The full context

    Leader of the British Conservative Party Kemi Badenoch speaks to the media outside Westminster Town Hall after winning the Westminster Council from the ruling Labour Party at the local elections, in London, Britain, 08 May 2026

    Kemi Badenoch vowed to ‘reverse the culture that has turned legislators into social workers’

    Kemi Badenoch has pledged that the next generation of Conservative MPs will “focus on the big decisions” instead of acting as glorified social workers.

    The Tory leader also promised that parliamentary business would not be allowed to overwhelm the busy schedules of the professionals she is seeking to attract to the party.

    “Britain needs serious people to steer us through serious times,” she said, and believed people working as teachers, engineers, electricians and builders should consider entering political life.

    Writing for The Telegraph, she called the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had.
    Under her watch there's not going to be another generation of Tory MPs.
    In your opinion-other opinions are available
    Not my opinion, just have a look at the recent elections.

    She says this 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had' so why are the Tories going backwards in every election fought under her watch, the Tories should be making net gains.
    The Conservatives can't shake off their record in government, in the eyes of right of centre voters.
    Correlation isn't causation, but it's interesting that the Reform decline started when they accepted that run of defectors from the Conservative party.

    As for 'the current Labour Government the most economically illiterate and the most unserious the country has ever had', I'm impressed that Kemi has managed to memory hole Johnson and Truss so efficiently. Maybe it's that software engineering.
    I think that Kemi is playing an atrocious hand about as well as she can. The problem is, the hand is atrocious.
    Self inflicted though. If only she had been in the previous government, she could have done something about it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,613
    edited May 31

    HYUFD said:

    More Sturgeoning! More Murrelling! Turn it up to 11!

    New Scotland Westminster poll.
    Norstat (Sunday Times) 27-29 May (1,002)

    34% (+5) SNP
    17% (-1) Reform
    16% (-3) Labour
    (others not yet published)
    Changes since Norstat 30 April.

    https://x.com/ammacj/status/2060834557818007776?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Which if Farage becomes PM doesn't mean anything, they would have more influence in a hung parliament with Burnham PM and needing their support
    If Farage becomes PM, support for Scottish independence will hit 60%.
    Maybe but Farage could legally and constitutionally still refuse to allow indyref2 if he had a Reform majority or Reform and Tory majority in Parliament which he has said he would do for at least another decade
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,912
    .
    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    So it’s not across the board then ?
    No, it is across the board - for everyone over 25.
    It's a 'temporary' fix to prevent the assessment system falling over completely, while the Timms* review is completed.
    https://www.benefitsandwork.co.uk/news/dwp-to-begin-lengthening-existing-pip-awards-from-june

    *you can contribute to the ongoing consultation, if you're motivated.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    HYUFD said:

    'Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC she feels like she is "serving a sentence for a crime I did not commit", after her estranged husband admitted embezzling £400,000 from the SNP, the party she led for years.

    In an exclusive interview with Laura Kuenssberg, Scotland's former first minister refused to apologise for the scandal and struggled to hold back tears, recalling gifts from Peter Murrell that turned out to have been purchased with stolen money.

    Sturgeon told the BBC: "I am not responsible for the crimes that my former husband committed and I'm not going to apologise for somebody else's crimes."

    She has consistently denied any knowledge of Murrell's wrongdoing, committed between 2010 and 2022.

    The former first minister was not charged following a police investigation.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2027k1ev3zo

    "I think I'm the real victim here."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,689
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    More Sturgeoning! More Murrelling! Turn it up to 11!

    New Scotland Westminster poll.
    Norstat (Sunday Times) 27-29 May (1,002)

    34% (+5) SNP
    17% (-1) Reform
    16% (-3) Labour
    (others not yet published)
    Changes since Norstat 30 April.

    https://x.com/ammacj/status/2060834557818007776?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    Which if Farage becomes PM doesn't mean anything, they would have more influence in a hung parliament with Burnham PM and needing their support
    If Farage becomes PM, support for Scottish independence will hit 60%.
    Maybe but Farage could legally and constitutionally still refuse to allow indyref2 if he had a Reform majority or Reform and Tory majority in Parliament which he has said he would do for at least another decade
    The point is rubbish anyway. We were all told that Scotland would have no truck with Farage - he who had to barricade himself inside a pub to avoid the baying masses. Reform are now on 16% there.
  • https://x.com/Matthardy_BR/status/2060599675070148963/video/1

    I wonder what the overlap between people is that put flags up on public objects and those that think 5G causes cancer.

    Look at this absolute spanner, swearing at people from WHP (a private telecoms company) just doing their job.

    We live amongst these people.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
    And ?

    The main reason is not the only reason.

    If we’re not going to grow the economy substantially or grow revenues substantially then slowing the rapid growth of the benefits bill as a whole, as well as other spending, is going to be essential.

    Scrapping the triple lock alone won’t cut it.
    No, but it's the one you have to do otherwise any other cuts are pointless.
    Health, probably have to put half over 50s on weight loss jabs, healthy living campaigns don't seem to be effective.
    Then as Foxy says support and encourage the working age long-term sick into work.

    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Brixian59 said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Kemi is lowering standards, ferfuxake, what a terrible idea.

    Builders as Tory MPs? I mean no wonder she keeps on getting mullered in elections.

    Badenoch: I want teachers and builders to become Tory MPs

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/badenoch-want-teachers-builders-future-tory-mps/

    'Future Tory candidate selection, she said, would focus on the five C’s – cleverness, charisma, communication skills, conviction and Conservatism.

    “I will not allow people who do not share our beliefs to use the Conservative Party as a vehicle to further their personal ambitions,” she added.'
    What is capital C Conservatism? People have very different ideas about that.

    Thesedays around half the people who might be interested in Conservatism are more excited by Reform - never mind if they are conservative or Conservative.
    Will they have to provide certification for cleverness, whatever that is as she palpapbly can't according to US sources

    Will she have yo evidence she has any charisma, she has none.

    Will they only communicate on Twitter like her?

    Will they have the conviction to deny saying she wanted to go to war with US v Iran when she definitely did, or will you need a conviction for web hacking?

    FFS

    She makes Truss look like Theresa

    Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst not a lawyer or PPE or Humanities graduate so I suppose she wants some more practical people like her
    FINALLY...Kemi brags about being an Engineer!

    The word has connertations of the Golden Industrai era, a Golden technology age, hands dirty in oil.

    But NO

    "Kemi is a software engineer and systems analyst "

    That is plain English (at the very low level of work experience she had is)...

    "I'm sorry your Computer is not working please turn it off at the plg, count to 30 and see if it works, if it doesn't ring the IT Call Centre back and me or one of my 200 colleagues sat in this old warehouse will tell you to do the same again"
    I'm obviously no fan of Badenoch's but that post is just offensive stupidity.

    Gemini summarises her pre-politics work experience thus:

    Private Sector & Professional Experience (2003–2016)

    Badenoch holds a degree in Computer Systems Engineering from the University of Sussex and a part-time Law degree from Birkbeck, University of London.

    Software Engineer at Logica: Worked in the information technology sector from 2003 to 2006 for the tech firm Logica (which later became part of CGI Inc).

    Systems Analyst at RBS: Moved into financial tech, working on systems analysis and technology change programmes for the Royal Bank of Scotland Group.

    Associate Director at Coutts: Spent several years (2006–2013) at the private wealth manager and bank Coutts & Co., transitioning from tech infrastructure roles into financial compliance following the 2008 financial crisis.

    Digital Director at The Spectator: Headed up the non-editorial digital department for The Spectator magazine from 2015 to 2016.


    Impossible to tell the depth or quality of those roles from that but it's clearly more than 'very low level of work experience'.
    I wonder why we get Rachel from accounts and Kemi from work experience. It never seems to be Michael's or Graham's.
    We had Dave from mummy got him a job, and George from straight into politics
    Don’t disagree with encouraging people back into work but there has to be carrot and stick and Foxy’s solution of a group hug to get that going doesn’t cut it.

    We need to reform the system that pays people to be idle. Reform cliff edges and the loss of passported benefits too.

    Healthy living campaigns and other stuff they’ve done, like ad bans, has no effect at all. Lobbyists and activists claim it does but they mark their own homework.

    We have obesity levels and inactivity levels rising. The only people who benefit are those in the Quangos and lobbying groups making a living from it.

    Get people on the jabs. It’s happening already.
    People bang on a bout cliff edges and marginal tax rates for those on benefits but you need a culture shift that says getting handouts is a bad thing if you can support yourself. Brown wanted everyone to be a client of the state to increase reliance ON the state. This is terrible. The state should be the safety net,not a lifestyle option where you only work 16 hours a week to avoid paying tax/losing benefits.
    You’ll never get that culture change. You can see it on Social Media.

    Wealth and wealth creation is seen as bad. Something to be punished.

    Yet benefits recipients are seen as wholesome and virtuous.

    An online version of Pulp’s common people.


    We now have politicians who want equality of outcome not equality of opportunity. We will be equalised along the lowest common denominator.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 41,035
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future?

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    Do you think we should leave future generations to pick up the tab ?

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be increasing taxes and the costs of employing people. Tax something you generally get less of it.

    We should also value hospitality as an industry. It’s an industry that often gives young people a start in work.

    As for welfare incentives matter. Pay people to be idle and they will. Too many cliff edges and passports benefits will be lost if people work too many hours.

    It’s far more complex than your solution of a group hug.
    On that chart the trend lines are in the correct direction for a balanced budget over the next years.

    I am not in favour of deficits, indeed would rather have tax rises than government in the red.

    The long term projections are all about demographics and the worker/dependency ratio. It is in large part down to the zero net migration policy, so an ever aging population with fewer children or workers.

    There is a failure to acknowledge amongst immigration hawks that pensions and healthcare are dependent on young workers, and with our current TFR that means immigration. We have to choose.
    On t'other hand, thirty years of mega immigration don't seem to have helped us, very much, in fiscal terms.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,693
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    The main reason for that projected increase is "an ageing population" pensions, health, social care... Trump turning to world upside down is another
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cewlwkg82ggo
    Population ageing is not the main reason for that line going up. It is the only reason.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,623
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    benefits nowadays is like winning the lottery
    This will be for lifelong and progressive conditions.
    So it’s not across the board then ?
    No, it is across the board - for everyone over 25.
    It's a 'temporary' fix to prevent the assessment system falling over completely, while the Timms* review is completed.
    https://www.benefitsandwork.co.uk/news/dwp-to-begin-lengthening-existing-pip-awards-from-june

    *you can contribute to the ongoing consultation, if you're motivated.
    Ha, not really. Seems sensible on the face of it to me.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,604
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    malcolmg said:

    carnforth said:

    New rules, which come into force this week, will allow benefits claimants aged 25 and over to receive PIP awards for four years after an initial assessment, and then a further six years after a review. Under the current system, claimants face reviews as often as every nine months.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/30/starmer-makes-easier-stay-on-benefits/

    This news depresses me enough to claim PIP.
    It is only a phone call away
    The vocal ‘scrap the triple lock’ brigade are always very quiet about the other side of the benefits bill.

    PiP is about 9% of welfare spending, state pension about 45%. You can, and should, clamp down on PiP fraud, but it's never going to save you much compared to pensions.
    I’m talking about all non pension welfare.

    Fine at the moment but the rate of increase is worrying and this chart worries me.

    Now you cannot just cut what people get now, but slowing the rate of growth, as SKS and Reeves wanted to do, is the solution.


    Do you really worry about spending projections decades into the future?

    The solution to welfare and NEETs is to increase the health and employability of recipients rather than browbeat and punish them. If we got the employment rate back to 2018 levels the finances would improve significantly.

    I would target mental health in particular, both in terms of treatment and prevention. Very often the best treatment for anxiety, depression and neurodiversity is appropriate employment with support.
    Do you think we should leave future generations to pick up the tab ?

    Perhaps we shouldn’t be increasing taxes and the costs of employing people. Tax something you generally get less of it.

    We should also value hospitality as an industry. It’s an industry that often gives young people a start in work.

    As for welfare incentives matter. Pay people to be idle and they will. Too many cliff edges and passports benefits will be lost if people work too many hours.

    It’s far more complex than your solution of a group hug.
    On that chart the trend lines are in the correct direction for a balanced budget over the next years.

    I am not in favour of deficits, indeed would rather have tax rises than government in the red.

    The long term projections are all about demographics and the worker/dependency ratio. It is in large part down to the zero net migration policy, so an ever aging population with fewer children or workers.

    There is a failure to acknowledge amongst immigration hawks that pensions and healthcare are dependent on young workers, and with our current TFR that means immigration. We have to choose.
    And pro mass inward migration/open door fanatics need to realise we need to be fussy about our inward migration.

    Bringing in millions of Boriswavers with their economically inactive dependents who once they get ILR will be a net burden of £240 billion over their lifetime. Especially considering their entitlement to a pension and passport we’d benefits. Figures CPS.

    Skilled inward migration, especially wealth/job creators we should welcome and, indeed, roll the red carpet out for them.
    Quite succinct. Wonder why the previous lot had a low £ bar and then allowed them to bring in dependents with them.

    ONS are forecasting 700K of immigrants per year going forward. Boat people would be a 20th of that, yet that's how the media (and Farage) gets their clicks. No one seems to want to DYOR.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,856

    https://x.com/Matthardy_BR/status/2060599675070148963/video/1

    I wonder what the overlap between people is that put flags up on public objects and those that think 5G causes cancer.

    Look at this absolute spanner, swearing at people from WHP (a private telecoms company) just doing their job.

    We live amongst these people.

    In Bath it was the Lib Dem’s who were dead against 5G for oncogenic reasons, so for all that it’s tempting to think ‘patriots’ are gullible conspiracy theorists, they are not alone in this.
This discussion has been closed.