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The polling that shows even Starmer could beat Reform at the next general election

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    murali_s said:

    Unbelievably, in my view, SKS’s stock is rising. Streeting is a back stabbing creep who apparently can’t count and Burnham is an opportunistic carpet bagger with little or no substance. As I keep saying, only Ed Milliband is better than SKS for leader. That’s not a reflection on Ed, that’s s reflection on the rest. Truly poor pickings in the Labour Party.

    Rubbish, Burnham has a +4% rating with voters far ahead of Ed Miliband and even Streeting on -28% is better than Ed Miliband on -32%.

    Miliband only polls better than Rayner on -33% and Starmer himself on -46% now

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842

    Reform Councillor quits after LBC investigation reveals his double life as porn star
    https://x.com/LBC/status/2055191522216226863?s=20

    Seems a bit prudish.

    Yes he was elected and it is a legal activity, provided he was doing his council job OK he could have stayed
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905
    edited May 15

    It’s slightly baffling to me that you have a motorway which presumably is a massive eyesore but you won’t have a mast near it that provides coverage. I guess people have very odd priorities.

    We should have 99% coverage on motorways as a minimum. This is frequently achieved in other countries and those that don’t have government supported schemes to do it e.g. Germany and France

    M6 is pre-existing I can do nothing about that.

    Masts you can put 1 in a stupid location or multiple smaller ones elsewhere to give you the same coverage. My viewpoint is you build the smaller ones, yes it costs money but that's a shareholder issue (and I'm a shareholder).

    We should not allow companies to do stuff on the cheap to save money so they can make higher profits.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    NEW from
    @Ipsos_in_the_UK
    : % of adults in the north west of England favourable towards parties & leaders.

    - 48% favourable towards Andy Burnham.
    - 22% favourable towards the Labour Party

    Feels significant. Reform / Greens top but for Burnham.


    https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2055235004729286890?s=20
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916

    Reform Councillor quits after LBC investigation reveals his double life as porn star
    https://x.com/LBC/status/2055191522216226863?s=20

    Seems a bit prudish.

    Reform initially stood by him, to their credit.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,733
    HYUFD said:

    Reform Councillor quits after LBC investigation reveals his double life as porn star
    https://x.com/LBC/status/2055191522216226863?s=20

    Seems a bit prudish.

    Yes he was elected and it is a legal activity, provided he was doing his council job OK he could have stayed
    Reform members who are racists and misogynists would appear to me to be a whole lot worse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587
    murali_s said:

    Unbelievably, in my view, SKS’s stock is rising. Streeting is a back stabbing creep who apparently can’t count and Burnham is an opportunistic carpet bagger with little or no substance. As I keep saying, only Ed Milliband is better than SKS for leader. That’s not a reflection on Ed, that’s s reflection on the rest. Truly poor pickings in the Labour Party.

    Standing in your home constituency isn't exactly "carpet bagger", is it ?

    And I think there's a fair amount of evidence that the creep can count, which explains his move today.
    Also, hasn't he stabbed Starmer in the front rather than the back ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    boulay said:

    A longtime friend called to see us yesterday to invite us to his 80th birthday celebrations next year

    He is a very successful North Wales businessman and he explained thaf Reeves budget, and the minimum wage rise, has added £100,000 pa to his restaurant costs and it is not sustainable

    He is reducing staff, which in hospitality are in the main young, examining his menus, and looking at increasing prices but he is uncertain that his restaurant can survive

    In all this chaos, can we have labour ministers that understand business as they are not the magic money tree some think they are

    Theo Bartram (ex-Brown aide iirc) was pointing on X earlier that no one in Labour had worked in the City or shown much interest in how they work but also that it was the same the other way. He thinks both need to start seriously speaking to each other
    Martin Sorel was on the radio this morning pointing out that prior to the election Labour did the whole thing of sitting down meeting business leaders to listen to them and discuss plans and then once in power have completely ignored everything they were told about how to get growth and help business.

    So it’s all very well getting them to speak but when you have ideological imperatives such as increasing minimum wage or duff tax policies for example then the talking is pointless.
    After the Tories, we hoped for an improvement, but still the same.
    The lack of focus of our political class on steps that could be taken to improve growth and our balance of payments is painful and deeply damaging. They would so much prefer to talk and do something, anything, about anything else.

    It's why I was interested in the relative success of Manchester in recent years. If Burnham has been willing to do the hard yards to contribute, or even not get in the way, of that he will be a breath of fresh air. We really, really need to start focusing on how things are going to be paid for as opposed to how we would like to spend the non existent money.
    It cost a bit in sunk costs, but I sometimes drive into Manchester and am glad he binned off the CAZ. A bit of practicality about the man.
    I went into Manchester a few days ago to see the Banksy exhibition. It was good. Manchester's tram system though is exceptional. It's just so easy to use. They seem to be every three or four minutes and you can get anywhere. There's definitely a late 80's feel about the place. I don't know how much is Burnham but he certainly hasn't done anything to damp it down.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872
    Nigelb said:

    murali_s said:

    Unbelievably, in my view, SKS’s stock is rising. Streeting is a back stabbing creep who apparently can’t count and Burnham is an opportunistic carpet bagger with little or no substance. As I keep saying, only Ed Milliband is better than SKS for leader. That’s not a reflection on Ed, that’s s reflection on the rest. Truly poor pickings in the Labour Party.

    Standing in your home constituency isn't exactly "carpet bagger", is it ?

    And I think there's a fair amount of evidence that the creep can count, which explains his move today.
    Also, hasn't he stabbed Starmer in the front rather than the back ?
    Never let facts get in the way of a good story.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 22,858
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    If what you want is to never see phone masts again then I’m afraid that’s simply unrealistic. They are tall, they look like masts. However much you try and hide them they are there.

    So we either accept that and make it work or we tear them all down and give up.

    At the moment we reject most masts (although on appeal some get approved - so a waste of time and money) and then people complain about poor connectivity.

    I think in rural areas there’s more (although it’s still slanted way too much to “no”) scope for discussion but inside a major city like London I cannot see the reason to reject anything.

    And now you go randomly in a completely different direction.

    The thing is if 5 small masts can do the same as 1 big mast without the visual impact damaging 2 national parks, sorry but you need to build 5 masts instead of saving a few quid.
    But that’s what they already do. And the majority of even those will get rejected, so what do you propose they do?

    Also not to sound rude but 5 masts is not an optimal solution due to interference, you can’t just substitute one mast with five and except a seamless experience. Radio planning is extremely complex.
    We were talking about 60 miles of motorway which mobile phone companies seem to be obsessed about the coverage of.

    to the extent that back in 2012 Orange went down because they moved the mast's coverage so putting 3 network engineers' homes in a blackspot.

    Network goes down and they couldn't raise any of them to get the servers back up.

    Yes because 60 miles of motorway covers a ridiculous amount of traffic especially commercial, you know for all those businesses that use it.

    If you don’t want to cover motorways with coverage then again you want us to be an international outlier of 1. That’s fine but it’s not a mainstream position for a country.
    Again you miss the point, if you want to cover 60 miles of motorway there are multiple ways of doing it.

    You don't wreck 2 national parks to save a bit of money, you can do it properly using smaller masts..
    Doing things improperly to save a bit of money is the British way, and is one of the reasons for all of this (gestures wildly while weeping.)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193
    MikeL said:

    What will a Budget under PM Burnham look like?

    Everyone saying he'll put up taxes to fund spending so as to satisfy the markets - but surely the question will be how will the OBR score his tax rises in terms of the revenue they will generate and when that revenue will come in.

    It's already been said that raising top rate of income tax will raise almost nothing.

    If he brings in some new wealth tax there's going to be a significant time delay before any revenue actually comes in - whilst new system is set up, then a financial year, then 10 months to do tax return etc.

    The new Mansion Tax announced in the November 2025 Budget comes into effect in April 2028.

    So how is Burnham going to actually generate the revenue to fund the spending which he will want to do quickly?

    Well, the current fiscal framework is helpful in that respect, because you only have to balance the budget in year four or five, so spending now and taxing later is already part of the process (i.e. there's the ongoing fiction of increasing fuel duty in the budget plans, but this is always deferred.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 136,842
    MikeL said:

    What will a Budget under PM Burnham look like?

    Everyone saying he'll put up taxes to fund spending so as to satisfy the markets - but surely the question will be how will the OBR score his tax rises in terms of the revenue they will generate and when that revenue will come in.

    It's already been said that raising top rate of income tax will raise almost nothing.

    If he brings in some new wealth tax there's going to be a significant time delay before any revenue actually comes in - whilst new system is set up, then a financial year, then 10 months to do tax return etc.

    The new Mansion Tax announced in the November 2025 Budget comes into effect in April 2028.

    So how is Burnham going to actually generate the revenue to fund the spending which he will want to do quickly?

    He brings forward the Mansion Tax to autumn this year and his Chancellor announces the 50% top income tax rate and a new wealth and land tax in the autumn too and then holds off on new spending until next year
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,351
    Roger said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Cicero said:

    boulay said:

    A longtime friend called to see us yesterday to invite us to his 80th birthday celebrations next year

    He is a very successful North Wales businessman and he explained thaf Reeves budget, and the minimum wage rise, has added £100,000 pa to his restaurant costs and it is not sustainable

    He is reducing staff, which in hospitality are in the main young, examining his menus, and looking at increasing prices but he is uncertain that his restaurant can survive

    In all this chaos, can we have labour ministers that understand business as they are not the magic money tree some think they are

    Theo Bartram (ex-Brown aide iirc) was pointing on X earlier that no one in Labour had worked in the City or shown much interest in how they work but also that it was the same the other way. He thinks both need to start seriously speaking to each other
    Martin Sorel was on the radio this morning pointing out that prior to the election Labour did the whole thing of sitting down meeting business leaders to listen to them and discuss plans and then once in power have completely ignored everything they were told about how to get growth and help business.

    So it’s all very well getting them to speak but when you have ideological imperatives such as increasing minimum wage or duff tax policies for example then the talking is pointless.
    After the Tories, we hoped for an improvement, but still the same.
    The lack of focus of our political class on steps that could be taken to improve growth and our balance of payments is painful and deeply damaging. They would so much prefer to talk and do something, anything, about anything else.

    It's why I was interested in the relative success of Manchester in recent years. If Burnham has been willing to do the hard yards to contribute, or even not get in the way, of that he will be a breath of fresh air. We really, really need to start focusing on how things are going to be paid for as opposed to how we would like to spend the non existent money.
    It cost a bit in sunk costs, but I sometimes drive into Manchester and am glad he binned off the CAZ. A bit of practicality about the man.
    I went into Manchester a few days ago to see the Banksy exhibition. It was good. Manchester's tram system though is exceptional. It's just so easy to use. They seem to be every three or four minutes and you can get anywhere. There's definitely a late 80's feel about the place. I don't know how much is Burnham but he certainly hasn't done anything to damp it down.
    There were teachers in Gorton and Denton saying many of the kids had never been into Manchester let alone anywhere else. Lot of work to do.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 89,587

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838

    "Dear shithead..."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124

    Reform Councillor quits after LBC investigation reveals his double life as porn star
    https://x.com/LBC/status/2055191522216226863?s=20

    Seems a bit prudish.

    It's the way you tell 'em
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671
    edited May 15

    MelonB said:

    Underrated possibility that Burnham wins the by-election, seizes the leadership and becomes PM, then becomes the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat at the next election.

    That would be even funnier if Labour win most seats too.
    I'm rooting for Andy Burnham to win the by-election because it would put a spoke in the wheels of Reform. Derailing their journey to power is my absolute number one political priority.

    However I see this whole Burnham thing as yet another sign of how our politics is getting dumbed down and obsessed with personality. Labour are desperate to change leader not because of policy direction but because Starmer can't connect. Something about him turns people off.

    That's the 'change' being made. Swapping him for somebody with a more appealing persona. Hoping that will turn the polls. I hope so too. But let's not go thinking there's a bunch of affordable policies out there just waiting to be unleashed once the dead hand of Starmer is prised off the tiller that will transform how the great British public feel about life.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,542
    HYUFD said:

    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20

    The full story is the coalition is with Greens, libdems and independents.

    I think Kemi has to realise she's not in charge of local government, the councillors have to make it work. She may have to need to get a few pointers for possibly after the next General Election.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428

    algarkirk said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    As the next GE gets closer it seems clear that the question will distil into a fairly simple one of 'Reform government or Not Reform Government', and that this is really the subtext for non activists, who are mostly not very political social democrat centrists with better things to do than post on PB.

    For the majority who don't want a Reform government this will become a more urgent than usual question. Reform is tied up with Trumpism, dog whistle ethnocentrism, noisy nationalism, 'ICE UK', plutocratic cash from abroad, people who post vile stuff on X and scapegoating. In addition offering belief in simple answers to complex problems. It is different in kind from the older knockabout of Tory v Labour etc.

    Avoiding Reform government at this stage involves other more or less house trained parties getting strong support. Refinements come later.

    Burnham, who I don't personally care much for, looks like being the best prospect of Labour beating Reform in actual seats, such as mine.

    The greatest danger if he succeeds in the current project is a repeat of the ludicrous messianism we have seen before with Boris, Corbyn, Truss and of course Farage.

    I think the mistake you make is thinking that non activists are mostly social democrat centrists. If that were the case then Labour or the Lib Dems would romp home at every election.
    Depends how you define social democrats. Lab + LD/Lib is a higher vote share than Con at most elections going back decades, as far as I can see from a quick Google. Now, not all LD/Lib voters are social democrats (I'm not sure I'd take that label!) but some are. And the Con-Lib coalition is good evidence to not lump Lab and LD together*. But are social democrats the largest group in the electorate? I'd say it's quite possible and depends how they are defined.

    *the subsequent collapse in support for LD suggests that lumping Con and LD together was also not welcome to many LD voters!
    In general the political argument of the great majority in the UK is within the constraints of post WWII social democracy. We are finding and will continue to find even Reform coming into line, with the exception of their UK nationalism. The voters of Clacton are social democrats (welfare state+private enterprise+NATO etc) to a man and woman.

    You keep saying this. The evidence for it remains poor. Look at MAGA. MAGA voters are just as reliant on govt largesse, but the Trump administration is absolutely not following a post-WWII consensus playbook.
    I am taking no view about USA and MAGA voters. I am taking a view about UK political reality. Once allowance is made for self interest, such as our preference for other people paying tax, UK voters vote for a welfare state, private enterprise, regulation or public ownership of natural monopolies (preferring whichever is not prevailing at the time), NATO, NHS, free education to 18.

    This is the essence of the post WWII social democrat consensus. The evidence of UK voters' support for it is so overwhelming that I mention it too often because the plain reality is so often denied.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838

    This is why a good headline/title is important.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838

    This is why a good headline/title is important.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Unbelievably, in my view, SKS’s stock is rising. Streeting is a back stabbing creep who apparently can’t count and Burnham is an opportunistic carpet bagger with little or no substance. As I keep saying, only Ed Milliband is better than SKS for leader. That’s not a reflection on Ed, that’s s reflection on the rest. Truly poor pickings in the Labour Party.

    Rubbish, Burnham has a +4% rating with voters far ahead of Ed Miliband and even Streeting on -28% is better than Ed Miliband on -32%.

    Miliband only polls better than Rayner on -33% and Starmer himself on -46% now

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026
    I'd feel more confident about the comparison between Burnham and others if we were comparing like with like. Burnham hasn't been in a Cabinet post for the last two years and hasn't suffered all the slings and arrows that brings. He is a regional Mayor. He is not exposed to the same day by day national media scrutiny as Miliband or Streeting, nor is he scrutinised to the same degree by Labour's political opponents. At the moment we are permitted to project all our hopey, changey aspirations on to a politician who hasn't had the same degree of political onslaught as his rivals.
    There are still a lot of don't knows for Burnham, but I think being a blank slate has a lot going for it for Labour. It's a chance for a genuine reboot of the government, and a new PM has the chance to make a new beginning.

    If they then bollox it up again then that's disappointing, but it doesn't negate that the opportunity existed.

    My best guess, fwiw, is that Burnham will bollox it up, but where there's a majority of over 150, there's hope.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,323
    HYUFD said:

    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20

    Shoot first. Ask questions later.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,833
    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,561
    HYUFD said:

    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20

    It's remarkable how many Conservative councillors are Conservative in name only.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,126
    Sky

    Streeting allies say he will stand in any leadership race
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,452

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838

    This is why a good headline/title is important.
    Every paragraph should start with a topic sentence. But let's not kid ourselves that Trump reads anything anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    HYUFD said:

    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20

    It's remarkable how many Conservative councillors are Conservative in name only.
    Nah, in this case it was utterly justified, Alan Amos is not only a traitorous pig-dog defector (on repeated occasions) but he's also a terrible human being.

    Making him council leader would be a crime.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    What! All of them?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    edited May 15

    Sky

    Streeting allies say he will stand in any leadership race

    Good, I have plenty more subtle Wes Streeting puns to use.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,142

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    Clearly shows how xenophobic and ignorant these people are. Just because you have money doesn’t make you more worldly or enlightened.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905
    edited May 15

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    It's still a protest vote regarding perceived policy failure. Come 2031 they will have elected Reform (having perviously elected Bozo's Tory party and then SKS's Labour) seen nothing changed and be trying to work out where their 2033/4 vote is going.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,218
    Funny how we all seem to move away from straightforward VI polling when it happens not to say what we'd like it to say.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,142
    edited May 15

    HYUFD said:

    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20

    The full story is the coalition is with Greens, libdems and independents.

    I think Kemi has to realise she's not in charge of local government, the councillors have to make it work. She may have to need to get a few pointers for possibly after the next General Election.
    Ridiculous! Kemi wants Tory councillors to line up with the fascists and racists! Wow! When people say that the Tories are Reform Lite now, they are right. I fear for them!
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,319
    I see the media are still pushing the line that there will be a leadership race between Burnham and others if he wins the by-election.

    Just let it go ! There will be a coronation or a day of nominations where the vast majority go for Burnham and then the others pull out saying it’s time for unity and will get some cabinet jobs .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838

    He thinks that's impressive. Wtf can you do.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    eek said:

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    It's still a protest vote regarding perceived policy failure. Come 2031 they will have elected Reform (having perviously elected Bozo's Tory party and then SKS's Labour) seen nothing changed and be trying to work out where their 2033/4 vote is going.
    "After the disappointment of Reform, the country is crying out for a true right wing government." (c) Leon 2032.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498
    rcs1000 said:

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    What! All of them?
    It sounds like an off-the-cuff generalisation. Do we have any actual data?
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    If what you want is to never see phone masts again then I’m afraid that’s simply unrealistic. They are tall, they look like masts. However much you try and hide them they are there.

    So we either accept that and make it work or we tear them all down and give up.

    At the moment we reject most masts (although on appeal some get approved - so a waste of time and money) and then people complain about poor connectivity.

    I think in rural areas there’s more (although it’s still slanted way too much to “no”) scope for discussion but inside a major city like London I cannot see the reason to reject anything.

    And now you go randomly in a completely different direction.

    The thing is if 5 small masts can do the same as 1 big mast without the visual impact damaging 2 national parks, sorry but you need to build 5 masts instead of saving a few quid.
    But that’s what they already do. And the majority of even those will get rejected, so what do you propose they do?

    Also not to sound rude but 5 masts is not an optimal solution due to interference, you can’t just substitute one mast with five and except a seamless experience. Radio planning is extremely complex.
    We were talking about 60 miles of motorway which mobile phone companies seem to be obsessed about the coverage of.

    to the extent that back in 2012 Orange went down because they moved the mast's coverage so putting 3 network engineers' homes in a blackspot.

    Network goes down and they couldn't raise any of them to get the servers back up.

    Yes because 60 miles of motorway covers a ridiculous amount of traffic especially commercial, you know for all those businesses that use it.

    If you don’t want to cover motorways with coverage then again you want us to be an international outlier of 1. That’s fine but it’s not a mainstream position for a country.
    Again you miss the point, if you want to cover 60 miles of motorway there are multiple ways of doing it.

    You don't wreck 2 national parks to save a bit of money, you can do it properly using smaller masts..
    But you accept we should have masts put up to cover 60 miles of road? Which somebody is going to see?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,218

    rcs1000 said:

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    What! All of them?
    It sounds like an off-the-cuff generalisation. Do we have any actual data?
    Was there any actual data provided for the widespread assumption (typified by Rochdale's recent thread header) that Reform voters are angry befuddled poverty-stricken masses?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    A hospital trust has admitted that nearly 50 staff members looked inappropriately at the medical records of victims of the Southport knife attack.

    The data breach happened at Aintree Hospital in Liverpool, where some of the injured were treated, in the days after the July 2024 attack but has only emerged this week.
  • eek said:

    It’s slightly baffling to me that you have a motorway which presumably is a massive eyesore but you won’t have a mast near it that provides coverage. I guess people have very odd priorities.

    We should have 99% coverage on motorways as a minimum. This is frequently achieved in other countries and those that don’t have government supported schemes to do it e.g. Germany and France

    M6 is pre-existing I can do nothing about that.

    Masts you can put 1 in a stupid location or multiple smaller ones elsewhere to give you the same coverage. My viewpoint is you build the smaller ones, yes it costs money but that's a shareholder issue (and I'm a shareholder).

    We should not allow companies to do stuff on the cheap to save money so they can make higher profits.
    Okay but where do you site those masts? Somebody isn’t going to like the look of them, they have to go somewhere where some people can see them?
  • I mean John McDonnell “stood” in 2007
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905
    edited May 15

    eek said:

    It’s slightly baffling to me that you have a motorway which presumably is a massive eyesore but you won’t have a mast near it that provides coverage. I guess people have very odd priorities.

    We should have 99% coverage on motorways as a minimum. This is frequently achieved in other countries and those that don’t have government supported schemes to do it e.g. Germany and France

    M6 is pre-existing I can do nothing about that.

    Masts you can put 1 in a stupid location or multiple smaller ones elsewhere to give you the same coverage. My viewpoint is you build the smaller ones, yes it costs money but that's a shareholder issue (and I'm a shareholder).

    We should not allow companies to do stuff on the cheap to save money so they can make higher profits.
    Okay but where do you site those masts? Somebody isn’t going to like the look of them, they have to go somewhere where some people can see them?
    How about along the motorway - which you've already called a massive eyesore, adding the fake tree design and no one will notice.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 8,876
    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781

    rcs1000 said:

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    What! All of them?
    It sounds like an off-the-cuff generalisation. Do we have any actual data?
    It would not surprise me. Age would be a major factor there.

    IIRC the data once analysed showed that Leave voters were more secure than Remain voters.

    Again, largely due to age (older voters owning homes and voting Leave, younger tenants who don't voting Remain).

    Far from being a cry for help, some people are so secure they have no qualms with rocking the boat . . . while those who are insecure can be more risk averse.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489

    rcs1000 said:

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    What! All of them?
    It sounds like an off-the-cuff generalisation. Do we have any actual data?
    We don't need no stinkin' data.

    More seriously: Reform, like every political party, draws its support from every aspect of society. There are Refom voting Remainers and students and nurses and academics and bankers. And there are Green / LibDem voting Leavers and builders and pensioners and the like.

    With that said... there is a fairly strong correlation between Reform strength and economic deprivation. According to the OCSI looking at the 2024 election results: "if the electorate were restricted to those struggling financially, Reform would lead with 39 per cent of the vote, followed by Labour and the Greens tied on 15 per cent" And three of Reform's five wins in 2024 came in seats that were in the bototm third of seats by economic deprivation.

    But that isn't only where Reform is relatively strong, which I suspect is James Frayne's point.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    Funny how we all seem to move away from straightforward VI polling when it happens not to say what we'd like it to say.

    I've always used Ipsos ratings as has OGH for many years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,489
    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    HYUFD said:

    'Kemi Badenoch has suspended the Tory leader on Worcestershire Council after entering a coalition with the Greens to overthrow Reform UK control

    It led to a Green councillor becoming leader of the council'

    https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/2054935609865605498?s=20

    The full story is the coalition is with Greens, libdems and independents.

    I think Kemi has to realise she's not in charge of local government, the councillors have to make it work. She may have to need to get a few pointers for possibly after the next General Election.
    Yes. I don't understand if the Tories won't work with Reform nor with the Greens then how does this council function?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872
    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Showing his Liverpool roots.

    You dancing?
    You asking?
    I'm asking
    I'm dancing.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,204
    edited May 15

    HYUFD said:

    murali_s said:

    Unbelievably, in my view, SKS’s stock is rising. Streeting is a back stabbing creep who apparently can’t count and Burnham is an opportunistic carpet bagger with little or no substance. As I keep saying, only Ed Milliband is better than SKS for leader. That’s not a reflection on Ed, that’s s reflection on the rest. Truly poor pickings in the Labour Party.

    Rubbish, Burnham has a +4% rating with voters far ahead of Ed Miliband and even Streeting on -28% is better than Ed Miliband on -32%.

    Miliband only polls better than Rayner on -33% and Starmer himself on -46% now

    https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54772-political-favourability-ratings-may-2026
    I'd feel more confident about the comparison between Burnham and others if we were comparing like with like. Burnham hasn't been in a Cabinet post for the last two years and hasn't suffered all the slings and arrows that brings. He is a regional Mayor. He is not exposed to the same day by day national media scrutiny as Miliband or Streeting, nor is he scrutinised to the same degree by Labour's political opponents. At the moment we are permitted to project all our hopey, changey aspirations on to a politician who hasn't had the same degree of political onslaught as his rivals.
    There are still a lot of don't knows for Burnham, but I think being a blank slate has a lot going for it for Labour. It's a chance for a genuine reboot of the government, and a new PM has the chance to make a new beginning.

    If they then bollox it up again then that's disappointing, but it doesn't negate that the opportunity existed.

    My best guess, fwiw, is that Burnham will bollox it up, but where there's a majority of over 150, there's hope.
    Yes, my thoughts too, at least there's an opportunity created. Being an outsider not an insider when voters are wanting a change of direction is a help not a hindrance.

    Amidst all the furore of the past couple of weeks, one thing has also been overlooked. The imminent prospect of the release of reams of internal correspondence relevant to Mandelson to satisfy the "Humble Address" requirements. That will potentially compromise many closely involved with Starmer's wing of the party, certainly Starmer and probably also Streeting unless there's nothing to add to the choice bits he had already released, and potentially many other Cabinet and other ministers other than those widely known to be hostile to Mandelson (Miliband, Rayner.) There will then be an overriding need for a new PM drawn from outside of the inner circle to come in with a fresh broom to clean out the stables.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Picture sorted for all future Burnham threads.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872
    Nigelb said:

    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    11m
    Q: Have you rejected the latest proposal from Iran?

    TRUMP: I looked at it, and if I don't like the first sentence I just throw it away

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2055251454290456838

    "Dear shithead..."
    Oh servant of Satan....
  • eekeek Posts: 33,905
    edited May 15
    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Ignoring that photo, which needs to be banned before TSE uses it on repeat, at least Burnham like Prince William has not picked a glory hunting team. He could easily be a Liverpool or Man United fan yet he supports the continual underachievers that are Everton.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,561
    MaxPB said:

    God Save the King

    Amidst the whirl of politics, KC3 went to Golders Green and was almost mobbed by anxious but happy Jewish people. Grateful for his presence. Imagine a Labour prime minister trying to do this. Oh wait he did and was screamed at

    “Today, in response to a series of smaller attacks on Jews, our British monarch has just taken on a role as patron of the Community Security Trust. He has visited this site of an attempted massacre to shake hands with a traumatised and fearful Jewish community. He has, in short, behaved like a mensch. His visit tells a different story about how British institutions and leaders relate to this country’s Jewish community.”

    https://x.com/joshglancy/status/2054964695493136638?s=46

    Charles showing more leadership that Starmer in the US and at home right now. It must be very grating for Labour.
    This is why we have a monarchy.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,208
    carnforth said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, the big news yesterday was Nigel Farge lying again and potentially landing himself with a massive tax bill.

    I'd disagree that that was the big story. The big story was the ongoing will-Andy-Burnham-get-to-be-PM story. I know many complain about the way the country collectively shrugs its shoulders at stories of Nigel Farage's dodginess, but this isn't really news: it's completely expected. It's priced in.
    I disagree, in so far as it is a big story if not THE absolutely humungeous story of yesterday. In the eyes of the public, tax dodging is far more consequentai for a politician's reputation than technical Westminster village stuff such as non-declaration of political donations, so if HMRC go after Farage that matters.

    In the same vein, council tax dodging could seriously damage Polanski.
    I doubt most of the public think person-to-person gifts should be taxable at all. See inheritance tax.
    I'm not sure the legality of it is really the issue. This, and his ever changing story about what it was for, will hang around his neck for a long time and will do real damage. More and more will come out - girlfriend won't reveal how she paid for the house in Clacton, £1.4m house allegedly bought in cash just after the "donation" for security. Just doesn't add up. This will run right up to the GE.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,781
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Ignoring that photo, which needs to be banned before TSE uses it on repeat, at least Burnham like Prince William has not picked a glory hunting team. He could easily be a Liverpool or Man United fan yet he supports the continual underachievers that are Everton.
    And Labour too. 😉
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,561

    MaxPB said:

    God Save the King

    Amidst the whirl of politics, KC3 went to Golders Green and was almost mobbed by anxious but happy Jewish people. Grateful for his presence. Imagine a Labour prime minister trying to do this. Oh wait he did and was screamed at

    “Today, in response to a series of smaller attacks on Jews, our British monarch has just taken on a role as patron of the Community Security Trust. He has visited this site of an attempted massacre to shake hands with a traumatised and fearful Jewish community. He has, in short, behaved like a mensch. His visit tells a different story about how British institutions and leaders relate to this country’s Jewish community.”

    https://x.com/joshglancy/status/2054964695493136638?s=46

    Charles showing more leadership that Starmer in the US and at home right now. It must be very grating for Labour.
    He really is. As I said the the other day, thank god we have a monarchy. Can you imagine this depressing unholy mess without that comforting knowledge: that there is something, however ruritanian, above our absurd and squalid politics?

    And KC3 is actually good at the job. Sometimes very good. He can be too woke for me but I’m sure he can be too posh and Tory for lefties. That probably shows he is hitting the right spot
    We'd be in a much worse position without a monarchy.

    Who else could stand up to Trump, without dividing Americans, and unite and reassure his own people back home?

    It's a superb asset for this country.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 20,916
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    As the next GE gets closer it seems clear that the question will distil into a fairly simple one of 'Reform government or Not Reform Government', and that this is really the subtext for non activists, who are mostly not very political social democrat centrists with better things to do than post on PB.

    For the majority who don't want a Reform government this will become a more urgent than usual question. Reform is tied up with Trumpism, dog whistle ethnocentrism, noisy nationalism, 'ICE UK', plutocratic cash from abroad, people who post vile stuff on X and scapegoating. In addition offering belief in simple answers to complex problems. It is different in kind from the older knockabout of Tory v Labour etc.

    Avoiding Reform government at this stage involves other more or less house trained parties getting strong support. Refinements come later.

    Burnham, who I don't personally care much for, looks like being the best prospect of Labour beating Reform in actual seats, such as mine.

    The greatest danger if he succeeds in the current project is a repeat of the ludicrous messianism we have seen before with Boris, Corbyn, Truss and of course Farage.

    I think the mistake you make is thinking that non activists are mostly social democrat centrists. If that were the case then Labour or the Lib Dems would romp home at every election.
    Depends how you define social democrats. Lab + LD/Lib is a higher vote share than Con at most elections going back decades, as far as I can see from a quick Google. Now, not all LD/Lib voters are social democrats (I'm not sure I'd take that label!) but some are. And the Con-Lib coalition is good evidence to not lump Lab and LD together*. But are social democrats the largest group in the electorate? I'd say it's quite possible and depends how they are defined.

    *the subsequent collapse in support for LD suggests that lumping Con and LD together was also not welcome to many LD voters!
    In general the political argument of the great majority in the UK is within the constraints of post WWII social democracy. We are finding and will continue to find even Reform coming into line, with the exception of their UK nationalism. The voters of Clacton are social democrats (welfare state+private enterprise+NATO etc) to a man and woman.

    You keep saying this. The evidence for it remains poor. Look at MAGA. MAGA voters are just as reliant on govt largesse, but the Trump administration is absolutely not following a post-WWII consensus playbook.
    I am taking no view about USA and MAGA voters. I am taking a view about UK political reality. Once allowance is made for self interest, such as our preference for other people paying tax, UK voters vote for a welfare state, private enterprise, regulation or public ownership of natural monopolies (preferring whichever is not prevailing at the time), NATO, NHS, free education to 18.

    This is the essence of the post WWII social democrat consensus. The evidence of UK voters' support for it is so overwhelming that I mention it too often because the plain reality is so often denied.

    UK voters have supported it, but we're seeing unprecedented changes in UK voting patterns, so we can't just assume it will continue, and that Reform and Reform voters will bend to the orthodoxy.

    Generations of US politicians in the South have successfully sold policies that seem unhelpful to their working class voters' interest. This is a classic discussion in US political science: why do poor Southerners vote Republican? One proposed answer is racial identity. Working class, white Southerners get to feel they're not bottom of the pile because they're given a group below them. (See Thomas Frank's "What’s the Matter with Kansas?", 2004, and Arlie Hochschild's "Strangers in Their Own Land", 2016.) Reform are perhaps offering the same and perhaps it will work for them. That is, Reform can replace the post-WWII social democrat consensus with libertarian, small state, pro-oligarch policies fueled by status threat, scaremongering around immigrants &/or Muslims.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Ignoring that photo, which needs to be banned before TSE uses it on repeat, at least Burnham like Prince William has not picked a glory hunting team. He could easily be a Liverpool or Man United fan yet he supports the continual underachievers that are Everton.
    When he started supporting them they were successful.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,561

    He is Labour's Liz Truss.


    The comments yesterday from a supporter about bond markets conforming to Burnham's policies do not inspire confidence.
    He's a prat and a wally.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Sergeant Neil Howie: OH GOD!! OH JESUS CHRIST!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,137

    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Ignoring that photo, which needs to be banned before TSE uses it on repeat, at least Burnham like Prince William has not picked a glory hunting team. He could easily be a Liverpool or Man United fan yet he supports the continual underachievers that are Everton.
    When he started supporting them they were successful.
    It's a slightly false statistic (As obviously you can't win promotion or the FA Trophy inside the EPL) but they have the biggest trophy/celebration drought of all 92 football league clubs at the moment I think !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 23,124
    Farage has just has just said the £5 million was a reward for his work getting the UK out of the EU.

    What a disingenuous c***!

    What kind of people vote for this creature?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,561
    I'm genuinely upset by that Andy Burnham photo.

    It cannot be unseen.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,466

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Picture sorted for all future Burnham threads.
    BAN THIS FILTH!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,193

    A hospital trust has admitted that nearly 50 staff members looked inappropriately at the medical records of victims of the Southport knife attack.

    The data breach happened at Aintree Hospital in Liverpool, where some of the injured were treated, in the days after the July 2024 attack but has only emerged this week.

    Doesn't surprise me in the slightest. When you give people access to data they will look at it. People are very curious [aka nosy].

    You can only prevent this by not giving people access to the data in the first place - e.g. tying access to the data to scanning the patient barcode on their ID wrist strap, or to a specific workflow (consultant scheduled to operate on patient).

    This is why a digital ID system/ID cards as generally conceived by the British state has to be resisted. The result would be to make all your data available to every government employee at all times.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564

    I'm genuinely upset by that Andy Burnham photo.

    It cannot be unseen.

    Take your mind away from it with this nice picture.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPJOvcvWgAAErA2?format=jpg&name=medium
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 66,561

    I'm genuinely upset by that Andy Burnham photo.

    It cannot be unseen.

    Take your mind away from it with this nice picture.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GPJOvcvWgAAErA2?format=jpg&name=medium
    You are cruel.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    I might a do nice mash up photo of Farage in his shorts and that Burnham photo.

    The coming men of British politics.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,498

    A hospital trust has admitted that nearly 50 staff members looked inappropriately at the medical records of victims of the Southport knife attack.

    The data breach happened at Aintree Hospital in Liverpool, where some of the injured were treated, in the days after the July 2024 attack but has only emerged this week.

    Doesn't surprise me in the slightest. When you give people access to data they will look at it. People are very curious [aka nosy].

    You can only prevent this by not giving people access to the data in the first place - e.g. tying access to the data to scanning the patient barcode on their ID wrist strap, or to a specific workflow (consultant scheduled to operate on patient).

    This is why a digital ID system/ID cards as generally conceived by the British state has to be resisted. The result would be to make all your data available to every government employee at all times.
    It's been repeatedly demanded (and was feature of the original Blair ID card scheme) that access be universal and unlimited. So, literally, a council worker investigating bin recycling could access medical records!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Ignoring that photo, which needs to be banned before TSE uses it on repeat, at least Burnham like Prince William has not picked a glory hunting team. He could easily be a Liverpool or Man United fan yet he supports the continual underachievers that are Everton.
    And pretty much anything is an upgrade on Arsenal.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Showing his Liverpool roots.

    You dancing?
    You asking?
    I'm asking
    I'm dancing.
    Ahem.

    https://youtu.be/k45uSUi8AI0
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Showing his Liverpool roots.

    You dancing?
    You asking?
    I'm asking
    I'm dancing.
    Ahem.

    https://youtu.be/k45uSUi8AI0
    I was remembering the Liver birds but hey ho.
  • boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Picture sorted for all future Burnham threads.
    The Git that keeps on giving !
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 47,887
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Showing his Liverpool roots.

    You dancing?
    You asking?
    I'm asking
    I'm dancing.
    Ahem.

    https://youtu.be/k45uSUi8AI0
    I was remembering the Liver birds but hey ho.
    Is that some of that new fangled alternative comedy I’ve been hearing about?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 50,671
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Debunking the cry-for-help theory of Reform:

    https://x.com/popconuk/status/2054872038787977322

    Pollster, James Frayne: "Reform voters are perfectly affluent working class and lower middle class voters. These people are not voting for Reform in some terrible cry for help. They're voting on the basis of perceived policy failure."

    What! All of them?
    It sounds like an off-the-cuff generalisation. Do we have any actual data?
    We don't need no stinkin' data.

    More seriously: Reform, like every political party, draws its support from every aspect of society. There are Refom voting Remainers and students and nurses and academics and bankers. And there are Green / LibDem voting Leavers and builders and pensioners and the like.

    With that said... there is a fairly strong correlation between Reform strength and economic deprivation. According to the OCSI looking at the 2024 election results: "if the electorate were restricted to those struggling financially, Reform would lead with 39 per cent of the vote, followed by Labour and the Greens tied on 15 per cent" And three of Reform's five wins in 2024 came in seats that were in the bototm third of seats by economic deprivation.

    But that isn't only where Reform is relatively strong, which I suspect is James Frayne's point.
    The strongest correlation (for people old enough) is with a Leave vote in 2016. Whatever drove Brexit is driving Reform - despite Brexit having happened. They are re-assembling the same coalition of voters as delivered that.

    Like Johnson did to win GE19. Not all Leavers but enough to win a GE. Farage is looking to pull off the same trick a third time. It's getting harder as the Ref is now a decade ago. But it's also easier because with this new multiparty politics you only need about 30% to clean up.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872
    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    edited May 15
    Just been to the ACTUAL site of Ad Gefrin, the summer palace of the Northumbrian Kings of the Golden Age, 550AD-700AD

    Magnificent site. In the lee of the Cheviots, under one of the larger Bronze Age hill forts in Europe (thousands lived there). Two miles away there’s an Anglo Saxon/Norman church with links to the gunpowder plot and the grave of Josephine Butler - the great Victorian feminist

    6000 years of deep deep deep British history in one tiny forgotten corner of our amazing island. Great little pub as well

    We live in a remarkable place
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,428
    edited May 15

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    As the next GE gets closer it seems clear that the question will distil into a fairly simple one of 'Reform government or Not Reform Government', and that this is really the subtext for non activists, who are mostly not very political social democrat centrists with better things to do than post on PB.

    For the majority who don't want a Reform government this will become a more urgent than usual question. Reform is tied up with Trumpism, dog whistle ethnocentrism, noisy nationalism, 'ICE UK', plutocratic cash from abroad, people who post vile stuff on X and scapegoating. In addition offering belief in simple answers to complex problems. It is different in kind from the older knockabout of Tory v Labour etc.

    Avoiding Reform government at this stage involves other more or less house trained parties getting strong support. Refinements come later.

    Burnham, who I don't personally care much for, looks like being the best prospect of Labour beating Reform in actual seats, such as mine.

    The greatest danger if he succeeds in the current project is a repeat of the ludicrous messianism we have seen before with Boris, Corbyn, Truss and of course Farage.

    I think the mistake you make is thinking that non activists are mostly social democrat centrists. If that were the case then Labour or the Lib Dems would romp home at every election.
    Depends how you define social democrats. Lab + LD/Lib is a higher vote share than Con at most elections going back decades, as far as I can see from a quick Google. Now, not all LD/Lib voters are social democrats (I'm not sure I'd take that label!) but some are. And the Con-Lib coalition is good evidence to not lump Lab and LD together*. But are social democrats the largest group in the electorate? I'd say it's quite possible and depends how they are defined.

    *the subsequent collapse in support for LD suggests that lumping Con and LD together was also not welcome to many LD voters!
    In general the political argument of the great majority in the UK is within the constraints of post WWII social democracy. We are finding and will continue to find even Reform coming into line, with the exception of their UK nationalism. The voters of Clacton are social democrats (welfare state+private enterprise+NATO etc) to a man and woman.

    You keep saying this. The evidence for it remains poor. Look at MAGA. MAGA voters are just as reliant on govt largesse, but the Trump administration is absolutely not following a post-WWII consensus playbook.
    I am taking no view about USA and MAGA voters. I am taking a view about UK political reality. Once allowance is made for self interest, such as our preference for other people paying tax, UK voters vote for a welfare state, private enterprise, regulation or public ownership of natural monopolies (preferring whichever is not prevailing at the time), NATO, NHS, free education to 18.

    This is the essence of the post WWII social democrat consensus. The evidence of UK voters' support for it is so overwhelming that I mention it too often because the plain reality is so often denied.

    UK voters have supported it, but we're seeing unprecedented changes in UK voting patterns, so we can't just assume it will continue, and that Reform and Reform voters will bend to the orthodoxy.

    Generations of US politicians in the South have successfully sold policies that seem unhelpful to their working class voters' interest. This is a classic discussion in US political science: why do poor Southerners vote Republican? One proposed answer is racial identity. Working class, white Southerners get to feel they're not bottom of the pile because they're given a group below them. (See Thomas Frank's "What’s the Matter with Kansas?", 2004, and Arlie Hochschild's "Strangers in Their Own Land", 2016.) Reform are perhaps offering the same and perhaps it will work for them. That is, Reform can replace the post-WWII social democrat consensus with libertarian, small state, pro-oligarch policies fueled by status threat, scaremongering around immigrants &/or Muslims.
    Yes, all this is possible but it does not derogate from what I have said, about which we are, SFAICS, more or less agreed. I don't assume either that the post WWII social democratic consensus is possible in the future, or that people in the future will vote for it if given other options.

    My opinion about the future only goes to the next election and its subsequent 5 year term - about 2034. It is this: Reform will stand on ticket of social democracy (as I have too frequently defined and described) + GB nationalism + slowing down of net zero + deportation of illegals + limited inward migration + a modest degree of withdrawal from international treaties consistent with that. They will not return migrants to war zones but will loosen the concept of legitimate refugee. The young wives and children of Ukrainian soldiers living near me are safe. As are my doctor friends with ILR/dual nationality unless they rob a bank.

    Unlike Trump Reform would not try to abolish the rule of law and separation of powers.

    Reform will not form a government, though the policy I outline here gives them their best chance. Only the Greens might possibly stand on a platform moving away from social democracy towards a socialist dirigiste state. They won't win. The rest will stand on social democratic platforms, as they always do, with the usual variety of emphases. If by any chance one of them were likely to be competent I will vote for them.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    edited May 15
    DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, forget the WC, hotel prices have become absolutely insane there. £200-250 a night for a bog standard hotel and not talking for Manhattan.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,564
    edited May 15

    DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, hotel prices have become absolutely insane.
    A colleague has said some hotels in America are now adding insane service charges.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    edited May 15

    DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, hotel prices have become absolutely insane.
    A colleague has said some hotels in America are now adding insane service charges.
    Las Vegas apparently has become a complete joke for this, room + various taxes, non-optional resort fee + tax, parkingz etc etc etc. A £100 hotel room becomes £200.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,791

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Who asked you to post that photo? Starmer or Streeting?
    That photo is now on the front page of the BBC site. Thankfully. it's been cropped.
  • DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, hotel prices have become absolutely insane.
    A colleague has said some hotels in America are now adding insane service charges.
    Las Vegas apparently has become a complete joke for this, room + various taxes, non-optional resort fee + tax, parkingz etc etc etc. A £100 hotel room becomes £200.
    I’ve heard of $100 burgers once you add it all together
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Picture sorted for all future Burnham threads.
    EVIL LAUGHTER
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 58,872

    DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, forget the WC, hotel prices have become absolutely insane there. £200-250 a night for a bog standard hotel and not talking for Manhattan.
    Given the collapse of international tourism thanks to Trump that seems really odd. Anyone know what is driving it (other than greed, of course).
  • “Greens suggest they will properly contest byelection in blow to Burnham”

    Guardian

    I do wonder if Burnham could lose here. It will an enormous blow to Labour at the worst possible time
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 629
    eek said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    Someone wants to give the Farage Shorts photo some competition.


    Jesus Christ. Please don't post that picture again.
    Ignoring that photo, which needs to be banned before TSE uses it on repeat, at least Burnham like Prince William has not picked a glory hunting team. He could easily be a Liverpool or Man United fan yet he supports the continual underachievers that are Everton.
    Speaking of Everton (Which as a red, I never, ever do)

    When the new shopping arcade Liverpool ONE opened, Everton opened a new shop in the centre and called in Everton Two.

    SO the address is

    Everton TWO, Liverpool ONE

    Small club

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 91,949
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, forget the WC, hotel prices have become absolutely insane there. £200-250 a night for a bog standard hotel and not talking for Manhattan.
    Given the collapse of international tourism thanks to Trump that seems really odd. Anyone know what is driving it (other than greed, of course).
    My guess would be cost of labour is much higher, most chain hotels are now a franchise model that get squeezed for fees / revenue share, US upper middle class still have money and still big demand for travel e.g. loads of national parks have introduced timed entries as getting overrun.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,646
    edited May 15
    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    algarkirk said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    As the next GE gets closer it seems clear that the question will distil into a fairly simple one of 'Reform government or Not Reform Government', and that this is really the subtext for non activists, who are mostly not very political social democrat centrists with better things to do than post on PB.

    For the majority who don't want a Reform government this will become a more urgent than usual question. Reform is tied up with Trumpism, dog whistle ethnocentrism, noisy nationalism, 'ICE UK', plutocratic cash from abroad, people who post vile stuff on X and scapegoating. In addition offering belief in simple answers to complex problems. It is different in kind from the older knockabout of Tory v Labour etc.

    Avoiding Reform government at this stage involves other more or less house trained parties getting strong support. Refinements come later.

    Burnham, who I don't personally care much for, looks like being the best prospect of Labour beating Reform in actual seats, such as mine.

    The greatest danger if he succeeds in the current project is a repeat of the ludicrous messianism we have seen before with Boris, Corbyn, Truss and of course Farage.

    I think the mistake you make is thinking that non activists are mostly social democrat centrists. If that were the case then Labour or the Lib Dems would romp home at every election.
    Depends how you define social democrats. Lab + LD/Lib is a higher vote share than Con at most elections going back decades, as far as I can see from a quick Google. Now, not all LD/Lib voters are social democrats (I'm not sure I'd take that label!) but some are. And the Con-Lib coalition is good evidence to not lump Lab and LD together*. But are social democrats the largest group in the electorate? I'd say it's quite possible and depends how they are defined.

    *the subsequent collapse in support for LD suggests that lumping Con and LD together was also not welcome to many LD voters!
    In general the political argument of the great majority in the UK is within the constraints of post WWII social democracy. We are finding and will continue to find even Reform coming into line, with the exception of their UK nationalism. The voters of Clacton are social democrats (welfare state+private enterprise+NATO etc) to a man and woman.

    You keep saying this. The evidence for it remains poor. Look at MAGA. MAGA voters are just as reliant on govt largesse, but the Trump administration is absolutely not following a post-WWII consensus playbook.
    I am taking no view about USA and MAGA voters. I am taking a view about UK political reality. Once allowance is made for self interest, such as our preference for other people paying tax, UK voters vote for a welfare state, private enterprise, regulation or public ownership of natural monopolies (preferring whichever is not prevailing at the time), NATO, NHS, free education to 18.

    This is the essence of the post WWII social democrat consensus. The evidence of UK voters' support for it is so overwhelming that I mention it too often because the plain reality is so often denied.

    UK voters have supported it, but we're seeing unprecedented changes in UK voting patterns, so we can't just assume it will continue, and that Reform and Reform voters will bend to the orthodoxy.

    Generations of US politicians in the South have successfully sold policies that seem unhelpful to their working class voters' interest. This is a classic discussion in US political science: why do poor Southerners vote Republican? One proposed answer is racial identity. Working class, white Southerners get to feel they're not bottom of the pile because they're given a group below them. (See Thomas Frank's "What’s the Matter with Kansas?", 2004, and Arlie Hochschild's "Strangers in Their Own Land", 2016.) Reform are perhaps offering the same and perhaps it will work for them. That is, Reform can replace the post-WWII social democrat consensus with libertarian, small state, pro-oligarch policies fueled by status threat, scaremongering around immigrants &/or Muslims.
    Yes, all this is possible but it does not derogate from what I have said, about which we are, SFAICS, more or less agreed. I don't assume either that the post WWII social democratic consensus is possible in the future, or that people in the future will vote for it if given other options.

    My opinion about the future only goes to the next election and its subsequent 5 year term - about 2034. It is this: Reform will stand on ticket of social democracy (as I have too frequently defined and described) + GB nationalism + slowing down of net zero + deportation of illegals + limited inward migration + a modest degree of withdrawal from international treaties consistent with that. They will not return migrants to war zones but will loosen the concept of legitimate refugee. The young wives and children of Ukrainian soldiers living near me are safe. As are my doctor friends with ILR/dual nationality unless they rob a bank.

    Unlike Trump Reform would not try to abolish the rule of law and separation of powers.

    Reform will not form a government, though the policy I outline here gives them their best chance. Only the Greens might possibly stand on a platform moving away from social democracy towards a socialist dirigiste state. They won't win. The rest will stand on social democratic platforms, as they always do, with the usual variety of emphases. If by any chance one of them were likely to be competent I will vote for them.

    Your basis for that blithe assertion is?

    This is someone who has just taken a £5 million bribe. He's not going to do things by the book.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    And in other shocks: https://apnews.com/article/world-cup-hotel-demand-airbnb-fifa-1698651dcf37cbba09f3183b218d54fb
    The host cities in the US report that hotel bookings are down on normal for the time of the WC. Who could possibly foresee this?

    I am off again to North America shortly, forget the WC, hotel prices have become absolutely insane there. £200-250 a night for a bog standard hotel and not talking for Manhattan.
    Given the collapse of international tourism thanks to Trump that seems really odd. Anyone know what is driving it (other than greed, of course).
    My guess would be cost of labour is much higher, most chain hotels are now a franchise model that get squeezed for fees / revenue share, US upper middle class still have money and still big demand for travel e.g. loads of national parks have introduced timed entries as getting overrun.
    There are also prices set by algorithm to maximise profit over occupancy.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,559

    “Greens suggest they will properly contest byelection in blow to Burnham”

    Guardian

    I do wonder if Burnham could lose here. It will an enormous blow to Labour at the worst possible time

    I'm not sure that's a blow. Did anyone expect otherwise?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,748

    “Greens suggest they will properly contest byelection in blow to Burnham”

    Guardian

    I do wonder if Burnham could lose here. It will an enormous blow to Labour at the worst possible time

    Heart of stone and all that.
This discussion has been closed.