Liberal Democrat LOSS to No Overall Control Changes w/ 2022 for outgoing councillors.
Tories holding up well, obviously it's Tory to Reform and LD/Lab to Tory. Can't be anything else can it?
It can and there was an example here in a by-election a few weeks ago where a LD seat went Reform. The LDs actually went up in share of the vote but the Tory/labour vote collapsed to Reform. This is setting up Reform/LD marginals (happening in Devon as well) where neither party is actually taking votes from each other, but other parties. This is generally what has happened in Gosport I believe. Helped by the LDs failing to stand a candidate in one seat they held (why?) which then became a Tory gain, making the situation look even worse and the Tory position look respectable. The Tories also held their strong seats, although I know the patch I am surprised some of these strong seats are strong Tory and not LD/Tory marginals. They look marginal, but aren't.
Some LD voters have clearly tactically voted Tory in Tory held seats to beat Reform it seems. In Epping and Theydon Bois the LDs won most votes in 2024 in 2 wards and won 2/3 of the seats in them but were third in both today with Reform winning one seat and the Tories holding the other seat
I think they're still at the printers fighting over the colour of the leaflets. They've only been there for the last two months so they might make a decision soon.
Has to be said, you have to admire the Reform team here at the Aberdeen count. They are wearing the weirdest fucking clothes. Fat man walking around in tight which shorts and a Union Jack T-shirt. Another in a lumberjack shirt and reform baseball hat.
Ew not what you want around lunch... how's it looking?
'kin 'ell. We won't be able to move for flags on council lampposts after today!
I dunno. Most of the big Reform wins are in mets, which elect by thirds. So they won't actually get into power. Which means we get to draw the whole agony out over another two years.
Which is why I laid them on Betfair when the market rule was "winning party according to number of council leaders and mayors", then they changed it to "number of seats", the f****rs! As an informed punter I've been done over.
Can someone convince me that Burnham can find a safe seat in the Manchester area ?
Don't look at what Labour are polling today.
Think about how many ex or absent Labour voters want Burnham instead of Starmer. Then remember that at parliamentary constituency level rather than wards Reform and Green will split the vote and set a lowish bar to win.
I think you overstate the appeal of Burnham in Manchester. We like him - but not that much. And we like him for being mayor of GM and advocating for GM - once he gives that up, he also gives up his broad support.
On the results today, there's not a single seat in GM he'd win. Though Trafford hasn't declared yet and is unlikely to sway as Green or Reform as elsewhere in GM.
Its not that they really love Burnham its that they really dislike Starmer! He will pitch as an anti status quo candidate just like Reform and Green and be able to hold that with enough voters to come through imo.
We've got 7 seats in Scotland so far. Only Shetland is a shock although Labour will be dismayed with the result in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. They should have been in contention there and, thanks to Reform, didn't even come second. The lack of talent in the Scottish Parliament is gutting. One of the few lights is Jackie Baillie but I fear with results like Carrick she may be in trouble in Dumbarton.
FPT: Things not going well for Labour in Manchester. In the seats being contested, they are currently third with 2, after Ref and Grn (3 each). I didn't expect Reform to be winning seats in Manchester. They've also lost Burnage (which is Bev Craig's seat - the council leader and mooted successor to Andy Burnham - though she is not up for election this time) to the Greens.
EDIT - two more Green gains from Labour in Manchester - Lab have now lost seven of the nine declared seats they were defending.
Will it be more difficult for Andy Burnham, as Labour have AIUI lost ground in several of the 10 boroughs which cover the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. Lib Dems now control Stockport, and NOC in Tameside, Oldham?
(That is not the full picture - it is not my home ground.)
'kin 'ell. We won't be able to move for flags on council lampposts after today!
I dunno. Most of the big Reform wins are in mets, which elect by thirds. So they won't actually get into power. Which means we get to draw the whole agony out over another two years.
Which is why I laid them on Betfair when the market rule was "winning party according to number of council leaders and mayors", then they changed it to "number of seats", the f****rs! As an informed punter I've been done over.
If its a significant amount and you have some patience then you should get paid out on the terms when you placed your bet. I wouldn't expect the first couple of customer service replies to accept it but if you get it escalated then its obviously the right thing for them to do.
I think they're still at the printers fighting over the colour of the leaflets. They've only been there for the last two months so they might make a decision soon.
Your Party finished seventh, and a distant last, in the six-way marginal in Birmingham which the Greens won with 19.8%, and even the Workers Party finished way ahead of them. I think they got about 3.2% of the vote. Risible.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
Manchester results also make it easier for NEC to say Burnham cannot be allowed to resign as Mayor.
Why? What difference does it make? Is it better to simply cling onto power or to try to move yourself into a position of strength? No wonder the Government has been so shite if this is the way they think.
Zoe Garbutt as Mayor of Hackney will be an interesting one.
Her local policies come across as "Green sensible", but her internationist ones, of internationalism linked ones, come across as a little more "Green bonkers", imo. If the Greens scrape control of the Borough itself, there will be interesting times in Hackney. Vincent Stops will not be impressed.
It seems that K&C will remain a segment of 1970s London embedded in the 2020s. For anyone using mobility infrastructure crossing a border into K&C is like entering a black hole in the midst of London.
FPT: Things not going well for Labour in Manchester. In the seats being contested, they are currently third with 2, after Ref and Grn (3 each). I didn't expect Reform to be winning seats in Manchester. They've also lost Burnage (which is Bev Craig's seat - the council leader and mooted successor to Andy Burnham - though she is not up for election this time) to the Greens.
EDIT - two more Green gains from Labour in Manchester - Lab have now lost seven of the nine declared seats they were defending.
Will it be more difficult for Andy Burnham, as Labour have AIUI lost ground in several of the 10 boroughs which cover the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. Lib Dems now control Stockport, and NOC in Tameside, Oldham?
(That is not the full picture - it is not my home ground.)
It is going to be more challenging to govern GM, certainly. One of the reasons for GM's success was the remarkable level of cooperation between Districts. That's going to be more difficult now.
Compared to predictions, I make all the seat swings between parties about 10% less than expected, with LDs doing as expected.
Gainers and losers are as forecast: Ref UK a LOT, Lab badly down, Con quite badly down, Green well up, LD up.
Personal expectation: the Ref UK defenestration rate will double, and the Ref UK self-destruct horizon will come closer as more people are exposed to having their community run by knee-jerk. I'm not clear what will happen to the saner / more competent Reform Councils - which do exist.
Here in Ashfield, we are up for re-election in 2027, but the Ashfield Independents are probably a bigger feature for then, with their leader up before the Crown Court.
Recount in Blaenau Gwent. Lab 111 votes behind Ref for the last seat. If it hols would be Plaid 3 Ref 3. Lab looking at single figures seats
The new electoral system in Wales is very boring. You get a bit of speculation and then all seats announced at once. Not the election night entertainment I want.
First Camden result in Hampstead Town... last time, it was a split result, 1 Con, 1 Lab. The Labour winner won unexpectedly and soon resigned, with a LibDem winning the by-election.
And now... the two sitting councillors won: 1 Con, 1 LD, although that counts as a LD gain from Lab under BBC reporting. The second LD candidate was a close 3rd. Labour vote collapsed.
Talking about a a seraglio of eunuchs. Trump's apparent mistake was he thought the Iranians would behave like GOP Senators and will fold on his instructions.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I agree. I admire Curtice but he seems to have got this curiously and obviously wrong
Recount in Blaenau Gwent. Lab 111 votes behind Ref for the last seat. If it hols would be Plaid 3 Ref 3. Lab looking at single figures seats
They can't be very confident in their counting if they're doing a recount on a 111 vote lead. There surely can't be much chance of that being overturned?
Can someone convince me that Burnham can find a safe seat in the Manchester area ?
Don't look at what Labour are polling today.
Think about how many ex or absent Labour voters want Burnham instead of Starmer. Then remember that at parliamentary constituency level rather than wards Reform and Green will split the vote and set a lowish bar to win.
I think you overstate the appeal of Burnham in Manchester. We like him - but not that much. And we like him for being mayor of GM and advocating for GM - once he gives that up, he also gives up his broad support.
On the results today, there's not a single seat in GM he'd win. Though Trafford hasn't declared yet and is unlikely to sway as Green or Reform as elsewhere in GM.
That must be giving Labour MPs serious second thoughts, "if Burnham's so popular why have we been routed in Manchester?"
I think there's a potentially valid hypothesis that Labour need a non-London leader to recover support in the North, but maybe it isn't Burnham
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I agree. I admire Curtice but he seems to have got this curiously and obviously wrong
It’s a mixed bag . In some areas there’s a wholesale shift from Labour to Reform . In others the movement from Labour to Green is the decisive factor in them losing the seat.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I agree. I admire Curtice but he seems to have got this curiously and obviously wrong
Coming to terms with the end of the Labour party movement is difficult for some people but it's going to be very difficult for them to make a comeback and patch their voter coalition back together. They need to pick a side and either ape the Greens and drive the last vestiges of the working classes to Reform (and some to the Tories) or go full Reform and watch as the lefties and Muslims abandon them for the Greens and Lib Dems. They have no path forwards and whatever wibbling about the economy improving won't save them because Labour are stuck in an identity trap of their own making.
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I agree. I admire Curtice but he seems to have got this curiously and obviously wrong
I also thought his analysis was a bit skewed when I first heard it, but to be fair to him he does tend to update it as things progress.
Jacob Rees Mogg on BBC says 'you haven't got in Essex dripping wet Tory MPs, the national party flirting with Lib Demmery cost them there' but he says Kemi is sound
I can't say I've noticed any flirting with Lib Demmery under Badenoch!
Mogg is just talking nonsense in a posh voice so people take it seriously - story of his career and possibly life in general.
People mistake him for a fool, when actually he is a genuinely nasty piece of work.
He is rather. The famed 'politeness' is passive aggressive class needle.
We've got 7 seats in Scotland so far. Only Shetland is a shock although Labour will be dismayed with the result in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley. They should have been in contention there and, thanks to Reform, didn't even come second. The lack of talent in the Scottish Parliament is gutting. One of the few lights is Jackie Baillie but I fear with results like Carrick she may be in trouble in Dumbarton.
Carrick & Cumnock was always going to be fertile territory for Reform. There is a fair chance Reform eat enough into Jackie Baillie's vote for her to lose the seat, majority is around 1500
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
Your average Reform voter is not getting their news from somewhere that it going to inform of that, they'll be on GB news being told there's an invasion of muslim rapists.
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Recount in Blaenau Gwent. Lab 111 votes behind Ref for the last seat. If it hols would be Plaid 3 Ref 3. Lab looking at single figures seats
They can't be very confident in their counting if they're doing a recount on a 111 vote lead. There surely can't be much chance of that being overturned?
I said labour are toxic in Wales and so it looks as if it they are not only toxic, but if they win 10 out of 96 seats in Wales for goodness sake what do they have to do to demand the resignation of Starmer
This is the demise of labour as happened in Scotland to the SNP and is likely to be a very longtime to them seeing office in Wales again
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
2nd result from Camden... is Kentish Town North. The Greens targeted this seat, buuuuuut Labour hold on, winning both seats. Greens come a close second.
That suggests Labour should be fine holding Camden overall. The Greens are going to be up big time on vote share, but how many seats can they win?
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
It looks increasingly like nobody is going over the top
Andy Burnham is not expected to say anything today or this weekend. Wes Streeting appears to be sticking to what he said before the election - he doesn't think this is the time for a leadership challenge
Cabinet ministers are privately despairing and think next week is huge - the PM's reset speech has to hit home, the King's speech has to show real ambition - but they're not calling for his head at the moment, however unsustainable they think his premiership is
The one variable is Angela Rayner - it's still not clear whether she will go public over the next 72 hours. The council in her seat has been decimated
We've essentially got a party in a sense of stasis - ministers know it's bad, they know that Starmer is going down terribly on the doorstep, but at this point in time they don't have a better alternative
All of which plays in Starmer's favour, in the short term at least
Wakefield first 6 councillors across 2 wards gone to Reform, Labour were 60%+ in the previous equivalent wards
7 wards counted: 19 Reform, 2 LD (Lab -18, LD -1)
But it's not Labour voters going to Reform, it's secret Tory voters going to Reform and Labour voters going to the Greens. Don't you see that Labour losing 18 seats to Reform is actually a disaster for the Tories!
Well, Curtice certainly seems to believe it isn't entirely a result of direct Lab to Reform switching. Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
I think Curtice is chatting shit tbh, it's clear that white working class Labour voters are turning out for Reform. Labour are being ripped in two atm, the Greens are nipping at their trendy wanky side and have clearly taken a big chunk of the Muslim vote and Reform have taken a big bite out of the white working class vote.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I agree. I admire Curtice but he seems to have got this curiously and obviously wrong
It’s a mixed bag . In some areas there’s a wholesale shift from Labour to Reform . In others the movement from Labour to Green is the decisive factor in them losing the seat.
Westminster polling typically shows Reform’s vote is overwhelmingly prior Reform voters or those who have never voted before. The main driver of their vote share is that enthusiasm is much higher for them than for other parties.
Obviously we have no firm idea what is going on, but I’d wager serious money that swings from other parties is not the main cause of what we are seeing today.
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
Kemi certainly secure then, Starmer probably too as Labour have beaten the Greens and the PM's biggest rival in Parliament Rayner's main platform was she could win back votes Labour lost to the Greens
It looks increasingly like nobody is going over the top
Andy Burnham is not expected to say anything today or this weekend. Wes Streeting appears to be sticking to what he said before the election - he doesn't think this is the time for a leadership challenge
Cabinet ministers are privately despairing and think next week is huge - the PM's reset speech has to hit home, the King's speech has to show real ambition - but they're not calling for his head at the moment, however unsustainable they think his premiership is
The one variable is Angela Rayner - it's still not clear whether she will go public over the next 72 hours. The council in her seat has been decimated
We've essentially got a party in a sense of stasis - ministers know it's bad, they know that Starmer is going down terribly on the doorstep, but at this point in time they don't have a better alternative
All of which plays in Starmer's favour, in the short term at least
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
If that's Rallings and Thrasher then it's the gold standard but I would prefer to wait until all the results are in to call second place in NEV, to me it does look like the Tories have comfortably taken second behind Reform though.
It looks increasingly like nobody is going over the top
Andy Burnham is not expected to say anything today or this weekend. Wes Streeting appears to be sticking to what he said before the election - he doesn't think this is the time for a leadership challenge
Cabinet ministers are privately despairing and think next week is huge - the PM's reset speech has to hit home, the King's speech has to show real ambition - but they're not calling for his head at the moment, however unsustainable they think his premiership is
The one variable is Angela Rayner - it's still not clear whether she will go public over the next 72 hours. The council in her seat has been decimated
We've essentially got a party in a sense of stasis - ministers know it's bad, they know that Starmer is going down terribly on the doorstep, but at this point in time they don't have a better alternative
All of which plays in Starmer's favour, in the short term at least
Just utterly embarrassing all around.
No surprise though as we went through all of this for years with Gordon Brown and Jezza.
Labour don't remove their leaders, even when they should. The Tories do remove their leaders, even when they shouldn't.
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
Kemi certainly secure then, Starmer probably too as Labour have beaten the Greens and the PM's biggest rival in Parliament Rayner's main platform was she could win back votes Labour lost to the Greens
How the fucking fuck can Skyr be "secure" when he's got 16% of the vote and his party is THIRD. This is catastrophic for Labour, about as bad as it gets
I mean, you might be right, but that proves the Labour party is insane, if they cannot topple this loser after a result this bad
From this John Curtice analysis it looks as if Projected National Share of the vote something like Reform 26% Lab 19% Con 19% LibDem ?18% Green 16% Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
Kemi and Starmer probably both survive if the Tories and Labour are tied second on NEV. Reform first on just 26% can easily be denied a majority with anti Reform tactical voting
For the PB predictions competition we use the BBC figure because Professor Sir John Curtice (pbuh) and his team who crunch the numbers for the exit poll are behind it.
Comments
(That is not the full picture - it is not my home ground.)
People are turning out to give Labour a kicking
Considering the average Reform voter either doesn't know immigration is falling and about Mahmood's proposed ILR reforms, or don't think it's anywhere enough, that suggests that maybe Lab's attempt at wooing Reform voters isn't working.
Her local policies come across as "Green sensible", but her internationist ones, of internationalism linked ones, come across as a little more "Green bonkers", imo. If the Greens scrape control of the Borough itself, there will be interesting times in Hackney. Vincent Stops will not be impressed.
It seems that K&C will remain a segment of 1970s London embedded in the 2020s. For anyone using mobility infrastructure crossing a border into K&C is like entering a black hole in the midst of London.
Compared to predictions, I make all the seat swings between parties about 10% less than expected, with LDs doing as expected.
Gainers and losers are as forecast: Ref UK a LOT, Lab badly down, Con quite badly down, Green well up, LD up.
Personal expectation: the Ref UK defenestration rate will double, and the Ref UK self-destruct horizon will come closer as more people are exposed to having their community run by knee-jerk. I'm not clear what will happen to the saner / more competent Reform Councils - which do exist.
Here in Ashfield, we are up for re-election in 2027, but the Ashfield Independents are probably a bigger feature for then, with their leader up before the Crown Court.
And now... the two sitting councillors won: 1 Con, 1 LD, although that counts as a LD gain from Lab under BBC reporting. The second LD candidate was a close 3rd. Labour vote collapsed.
I really think Labour could be headed for extinction as a party because now there's two parties that appeal to their coalition but don't need to compromise to each side of it. Reform don't need to weigh up what a tough immigration and pushing for net emigration will do for Muslim/Lefty voters and the Greens don't give a flying fuck about what the working classes think about high immigration policies they favour.
I think there's a potentially valid hypothesis that Labour need a non-London leader to recover support in the North, but maybe it isn't Burnham
Reform 26%
Lab 19%
Con 19%
LibDem ?18%
Green 16%
Apocalypse Postponed for the Uniparty
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2052739528419328441
Massive opportunity for Badenoch
What's the current state of play?
The first three Great Yarmouth results are out, and Restore Britain are carrying all before them with nobody even close.
This is the demise of labour as happened in Scotland to the SNP and is likely to be a very longtime to them seeing office in Wales again
They've gained Shetland and look like they are taking Eastwood
Better news coming out from Glasgow from the Green targets now, maybe a Green predicted gain is a bit premature
Which time zone are you in?
Over in Bury, Lab have held Ramsbottom. This is their heartland now - moderately comfortable, moderately fashionable, white, urban but not too urban.
That suggests Labour should be fine holding Camden overall. The Greens are going to be up big time on vote share, but how many seats can they win?
The sole LD retained his seat.
27% Reform
20% Conservatives
16% Labour
14% Lib Dems
13% Greens
It looks increasingly like nobody is going over the top
Andy Burnham is not expected to say anything today or this weekend. Wes Streeting appears to be sticking to what he said before the election - he doesn't think this is the time for a leadership challenge
Cabinet ministers are privately despairing and think next week is huge - the PM's reset speech has to hit home, the King's speech has to show real ambition - but they're not calling for his head at the moment, however unsustainable they think his premiership is
The one variable is Angela Rayner - it's still not clear whether she will go public over the next 72 hours. The council in her seat has been decimated
We've essentially got a party in a sense of stasis - ministers know it's bad, they know that Starmer is going down terribly on the doorstep, but at this point in time they don't have a better alternative
All of which plays in Starmer's favour, in the short term at least
Just utterly embarrassing all around.
Obviously we have no firm idea what is going on, but I’d wager serious money that swings from other parties is not the main cause of what we are seeing today.
Stockbridge (Knowsley) Council Election Result:
RFM: 39.1% (+39.1)
GRN: 29.1% (+12.2)
LAB: 28.0% (-55.1)
CON: 3.8% (+3.8)
Reform GAIN from Labour
Changes w/ 2024.
Labour don't remove their leaders, even when they should. The Tories do remove their leaders, even when they shouldn't.
I mean, you might be right, but that proves the Labour party is insane, if they cannot topple this loser after a result this bad
They have the best track record.
Labour might be FOURTH in Wales