Kemi Badenoch is the least unpopular Party leader.
Kemi is far more popular with Reform voters than Starmer, Polanski and Davey certainly. However that does not help Tory candidates much as Reform voters still prefer Big Nige to Kemi.
Labour, LD and Green voters though it seems are still not willing to tactically vote for a Kemi led Tories yet in big enough numbers for Tory incumbents to hold off Reform
I'd be willing to vote Tory to keep out Reform. I've gone halfway by voting LD today. Fact is. For most of the country that isn't an option.
I do wish the BBC would update the number of councillors elected as soon as they know about them, rather than waiting to do it only when they have all the results in for a particular council.
They are updating it. I see Reform with 2 councillors.
I'm not watching any coverage tonight as I cancelled my TV licence, which means I can't watch any live news (and as you all know, I'm a law abiding citizen so even if I could have a sneaky watch of SKY on YouTube, as, who would know? I won't...)
So I'm relying on PB to keep me updated
Are the likes of Novara Media not doing a live stream?
No idea, but I'm happy enough chilling to some easy listening and reading PB.
I will have to re-instate my licence for the GE though...
Can't you just stick radio 4 on if you really want talking head drivel? (Yours, currently playing World of Tanks and half listening to R4/doomscrolling PM)
I do wish the BBC would update the number of councillors elected as soon as they know about them, rather than waiting to do it only when they have all the results in for a particular council.
They are updating it. I see Reform with 2 councillors.
Yes, I just noticed that - I must have been a bit presumptious. Let's hope they keep it up.
Starmer watched mesmerised as Israel committed a genocide in Gaza. 85.000 butchered. Starmer did nothing as journalists children doctors nurses and relief workers were slaughtererd. We all watched in real time. For that alone the Green's are going to eclipse Labour and they're votes Labour will not get back. Certainly never while Starmer is in charge
Starmer watched mesmerised as Israel committed a genocide in Gaza. 85.000 butchered. Starmer did nothing as journalists children doctors nurses and relief workers were slaughtererd. We all watched in real time. For that alone the Green's are going to eclipse Labour and they're votes Labour will not get back. Certainly never while Starmer is in charge
An area in which every single ward consistently voted for Andy Burnham. Just saying.
Sincere question: what does that imply?
That Burnham connects. In a way most don't. There's a lot of puerile dismissal on here from folk who haven't seen owt of him since the fag end of the Brown government. He isn't seen as a Labour politician. It's similar to how Johnson won London.
Dr David Bullshit being ridiculed over Nigel Farage's £5m bung. In the background there are black-shirted Reform activists in Essex, would be scary but look like they be defeated by a short flight of stairs or a slight incline.
There have been a few astute comments this evening, and I thought @isam ‘s comment of Reform being “Dubai MAGA” captured something real. It doesn’t surprise me that parts of Essex would go monopoly Reform because Essex is the most Dubai county in Britain as well as the most culturally American. It’s a sort of mashup of New Jersey, Texas and Dubai, with rainfall totals not far off those of the latter (and the country’s best still wines). Dubai MAGA could catch on as a term.
A very early result but interesting because it would seem to debunk the idea Reform gain Labour seats only because Labour loses defections to the left and Reform gains from the Tories, but looks more like direct switching.
I’m interested in how much the ‘bloc’ theory plays out tonight. There is a lot of suggestion we are basically seeing between bloc switching Lab-Green-LD (PC in Wales) and Ref-Tory. But more of this suggests that between block Lab-Ref switching is real.
Some of the stuff I’m being sent is…crazy. We’ll have a decent picture soon enough.
Tonight Keir Starmer has set the Labour Party on the path to what will be, at this rate, complete destruction. I suspect it’s worse than polling predicted.
I do wish the BBC would update the number of councillors elected as soon as they know about them, rather than waiting to do it only when they have all the results in for a particular council.
They are updating it. I see Reform with 2 councillors.
Yes, I just noticed that - I must have been a bit presumptious. Let's hope they keep it up.
Most places aren't counting until tomorrow daytime. The current coverage is utterly futile.
Given the high turnout reports in likely reform areas I wonder how much the self-reported low likelihood to vote weighting is weighing down Reform in Sco/Wal - consistently the UKIP-y voters have out performed polling expectations, and I haven't seen much evidence correction has occurred in UK polling.
Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:
I do wish the BBC would update the number of councillors elected as soon as they know about them, rather than waiting to do it only when they have all the results in for a particular council.
They are updating it. I see Reform with 2 councillors.
Yes, I just noticed that - I must have been a bit presumptious. Let's hope they keep it up.
It seems that they can't! The TV says that two seats have been declared (for Reform), and also that one council has been retained by Labour. It's as bad as the BBC website!
A very early result but interesting because it would seem to debunk the idea Reform gain Labour seats only because Labour loses defections to the left and Reform gains from the Tories, but looks more like direct switching.
I’m interested in how much the ‘bloc’ theory plays out tonight. There is a lot of suggestion we are basically seeing between bloc switching Lab-Green-LD (PC in Wales) and Ref-Tory. But more of this suggests that between block Lab-Ref switching is real.
I think it's pretty clear there is plenty of direct Labour to Reform switching, just as there was a lot of Labour to UKIP switching before that. Reform reaches places that the Conservatives could not go.
Of course, it helps that people project onto Reform what they want to see. Some -mostly on the Tory right- see a radical deregulating government that lowers the country's trade barriers. Others -mostly ex-Labout voters- see them as an opportunity to protect British industry.
A very early result but interesting because it would seem to debunk the idea Reform gain Labour seats only because Labour loses defections to the left and Reform gains from the Tories, but looks more like direct switching.
I’m interested in how much the ‘bloc’ theory plays out tonight. There is a lot of suggestion we are basically seeing between bloc switching Lab-Green-LD (PC in Wales) and Ref-Tory. But more of this suggests that between block Lab-Ref switching is real.
I think it's pretty clear there is plenty of direct Labour to Reform switching, just as there was a lot of Labour to UKIP switching before that. Reform reaches places that the Conservatives could not go.
Of course, it helps that people project onto Reform what they want to see. Some -mostly on the Tory right- see a radical deregulating government that lowers the country's trade barriers. Others -mostly ex-Labout voters- see them as an opportunity to protect British industry.
I agree but it's even simpler than that - they see an outsider (an image the mainstream parties have been more than keen to reinforce). When everything is rubbish and getting worse what's the risk in something new? Depressingly I think we had exactly the same chat shortly pre Brexit vote.
A very early result but interesting because it would seem to debunk the idea Reform gain Labour seats only because Labour loses defections to the left and Reform gains from the Tories, but looks more like direct switching.
I’m interested in how much the ‘bloc’ theory plays out tonight. There is a lot of suggestion we are basically seeing between bloc switching Lab-Green-LD (PC in Wales) and Ref-Tory. But more of this suggests that between block Lab-Ref switching is real.
I think it's pretty clear there is plenty of direct Labour to Reform switching, just as there was a lot of Labour to UKIP switching before that. Reform reaches places that the Conservatives could not go.
Of course, it helps that people project onto Reform what they want to see. Some -mostly on the Tory right- see a radical deregulating government that lowers the country's trade barriers. Others -mostly ex-Labout voters- see them as an opportunity to protect British industry.
And the contradictions will inevitably lead to a failed government... But they will probably hold their coalition of voters together until Election '29...
A very early result but interesting because it would seem to debunk the idea Reform gain Labour seats only because Labour loses defections to the left and Reform gains from the Tories, but looks more like direct switching.
I’m interested in how much the ‘bloc’ theory plays out tonight. There is a lot of suggestion we are basically seeing between bloc switching Lab-Green-LD (PC in Wales) and Ref-Tory. But more of this suggests that between block Lab-Ref switching is real.
I think it's pretty clear there is plenty of direct Labour to Reform switching, just as there was a lot of Labour to UKIP switching before that. Reform reaches places that the Conservatives could not go.
Of course, it helps that people project onto Reform what they want to see. Some -mostly on the Tory right- see a radical deregulating government that lowers the country's trade barriers. Others -mostly ex-Labout voters- see them as an opportunity to protect British industry.
I agree but it's even simpler than that - they see an outsider (an image the mainstream parties have been more than keen to reinforce). When everything is rubbish and getting worse what's the risk in something new? Depressingly I think we had exactly the same chat shortly pre Brexit vote.
Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:
Starmer watched mesmerised as Israel committed a genocide in Gaza. 85.000 butchered. Starmer did nothing as journalists children doctors nurses and relief workers were slaughtererd. We all watched in real time. For that alone the Green's are going to eclipse Labour and they're votes Labour will not get back. Certainly never while Starmer is in charge
So the Green vote is just a Gaza vote? I thought that was a stereotype put out by their opponents.
Beeb reporter on X saying Greens and LD fear they got squeezed in Wales, Tories only prepared to say they think Millar in Clwyd and Finch Saunders in Bangor are back and Labour v worried everywhere
Some of the stuff I’m being sent is…crazy. We’ll have a decent picture soon enough.
Tonight Keir Starmer has set the Labour Party on the path to what will be, at this rate, complete destruction. I suspect it’s worse than polling predicted.
Starmer's culpability for the destruction of the Labour Party started well before tonight.
It even predates his appointment of Mandelson.
It comes down to a fundamental flaw in his "personality" - and he has been exposed as being the unlikeable and directionless technocrat with zero leadership skills
He was gifted a huge majority without having a plan with how to govern.
His time is over. Kick him out of office and out of public life.
Labour are saved from even worse results as some of their councils are only electing a third and they can still maintain overall control even if they lose all their defences .
Beeb reporter on X saying Greens and LD fear they got squeezed in Wales, Tories only prepared to say they think Millar in Clwyd and Finch Saunders in Bangor are back and Labour v worried everywhere
Labour are saved from even worse results as some of their councils are only electing a third and they can still maintain overall control even if they lose all their defences .
Have a look at Wigan. Likely to elect 24/25 Reform. Still nowhere near the Labour majority.
Reform most seats in Wales available at 6/1. I've loaded up. Strong chance of it being a superb value loser but if the pollsters have't corrected the UKIPper likelihood to vote trigger it looks good.
Starmer watched mesmerised as Israel committed a genocide in Gaza. 85.000 butchered. Starmer did nothing as journalists children doctors nurses and relief workers were slaughtererd. We all watched in real time. For that alone the Green's are going to eclipse Labour and they're votes Labour will not get back. Certainly never while Starmer is in charge
Let's ignore the rights and wrongs of the situation for a second, and assume Starmer wanted the Israeli occupation of Gaza stopped ASAP. I'm not Starmer fan, but what exactly did you want him to *do*?
Send the Israelis a strongly worded complaint? Call up our navy and send our remaining destroyer to the Med so as to be near the scene? Drop a nuke on Tel Aviv?
I think there was virtually nothing Starmer could actually do, other than spout hot air that the Israelis would have ignored. He probably felt his political capital was better used elsewhere.
Tories on the board in one of the District Council by elections running today Little Hadham and The Pelhams (East Hertfordshire) council election result:
An area in which every single ward consistently voted for Andy Burnham. Just saying.
Sincere question: what does that imply?
That Burnham connects. In a way most don't. There's a lot of puerile dismissal on here from folk who haven't seen owt of him since the fag end of the Brown government. He isn't seen as a Labour politician. It's similar to how Johnson won London.
Not clear to me how him not being seen as a Labour politician would survive him becoming the leader of the Labour Party.
I suspect that given the enthusiasm of their activist base (considerable), and also their lack of a track record (so they don't really know where they'll win), very few of those standing will be paper efforts.
That doesn't mean they won't have people elected who can't hack it - this happens to an extent in all parties (there is a reason there are a couple of byelections most Thursdays), and Reform will be suffering from the "double whammy" of starting from zero (so not much built in experience) and winning substantially (so thousands of new councillors). Very much a nice problem to have mind you.
Beeb reporter on X saying Greens and LD fear they got squeezed in Wales, Tories only prepared to say they think Millar in Clwyd and Finch Saunders in Bangor are back and Labour v worried everywhere
The LDs had a vote in Wales to squeeze?
They did: it was big lass in Aberystwyth called Megan.
Labour hold a ward in Halton by 0.1% that they got 75% of the vote in last time... They're done.
I think you're missing the big story: with that win, Labour now has 50% more Councillors than either the Greens or the LibDems. They are the only party who can stop Reform.
The New Agents are going to need to seek professional help from all the emotional distress they are going to be suffering.
They’re not fans of Starmer !
I am not sure anybody is at these days, but they absolutely soft left New Labour types and are defnitely triggered by the thoughts of Corbynite lefty Greens or super right wing Reform doing well.
Labour hold a ward in Halton by 0.1% that they got 75% of the vote in last time... They're done.
I think you're missing the big story: with that win, Labour now has 50% more Councillors than either the Greens or the LibDems. They are the only party who can stop Reform.
Laura K is doing a worse than expected job of hosting this. Which channel is doing it better?
I think they are all bloody awful. Sky News is only worth it for when they let Michael Trasher out of the cupboard.
The likes of Britain Elects who are worth listening to (despite their Labour leaning they are pretty good at rising above that for impartial analysis) and have in the past done live streams don't seem to be doing them this evening.
I suspect that given the enthusiasm of their activist base (considerable), and also their lack of a track record (so they don't really know where they'll win), very few of those standing will be paper efforts.
That doesn't mean they won't have people elected who can't hack it - this happens to an extent in all parties (there is a reason there are a couple of byelections most Thursdays), and Reform will be suffering from the "double whammy" of starting from zero (so not much built in experience) and winning substantially (so thousands of new councillors). Very much a nice problem to have mind you.
There's always paper candidates. Even in areas where a party gets 65-70% of seats and so you'd assume they must have sufficient options, you see it happen.
People standing down in their area but agreeing to be a no hoper elsewhere. Spouses with little interest in politics. Random party members persuaded because more resources are allocated by central office if they have a full slate
It's also not as appealing a job as MP so harder to enthuse people.
It may not be a high percentage, but winning so many seats it doesn't need to be.
Reform sweeping the Red Wall *and* potentially being the biggest party in Wales will surely trigger a major identity crisis for Labour. Not just a loss, but a loss of their people to a party their activists see as worse than the Tories.
I'm sorry - if they're collapsing in wards with 72% previous shares in different parts of the country they're absolutely done. Has a local election ever taken all authority away from a PM before? Looking like it may be very hard to declare to be the leader of the UK on monday.
Ukip never managed anything like this. The SDP couldn’t win Warrington. Reform are going to win places even Boris Johnson couldn’t win against Corbyn. This is going to be qualitatively and quantitatively different to any insurgency that’s come before.
Ukip never managed anything like this. The SDP couldn’t win Warrington. Reform are going to win places even Boris Johnson couldn’t win against Corbyn. This is going to be qualitatively and quantitatively different to any insurgency that’s come before.
I would agree with that. Albeit, my view of the qualititive difference may be different to his.
Kash Patel has ordered the polygraphing of more than two dozen former and current members of his security detail and other staff and has been described as in panic mode to save his job and find leakers among his team, according to two people briefed on the development.
Aren't polygraphs bullshit if people are practiced, calm, liars?
Apparently the American kind are bullshit even then, they detect nervousness rather than lying. There's another technique used in Japan which according to the researcher who gave at talk at Tokyo Nerd Night actually works: The difference is that they test for *concealed knowledge*, rather than lying. So instead of saying "did you bludgeon the victim to death with a wine bottle" you just show them pictures of a gun, a bat, a wine bottle and frozen lamb chop and see how they respond.
This can also be defeated with practice though. (One subject got too good at this, they showed a physiological response to every object *except* the murder weapon...)
Comments
Fact is. For most of the country that isn't an option.
There are no safe Labour seats outside of London so his leadership plans might implode .
That’s my take maybe I’m wrong .
There's a lot of puerile dismissal on here from folk who haven't seen owt of him since the fag end of the Brown government.
He isn't seen as a Labour politician.
It's similar to how Johnson won London.
https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2052527717740875981
A very early result but interesting because it would seem to debunk the idea Reform gain Labour seats only because Labour loses defections to the left and Reform gains from the Tories, but looks more like direct switching.
I’m interested in how much the ‘bloc’ theory plays out tonight. There is a lot of suggestion we are basically seeing between bloc switching Lab-Green-LD (PC in Wales) and Ref-Tory. But more of this suggests that between block Lab-Ref switching is real.
Some of the stuff I’m being sent is…crazy. We’ll have a decent picture soon enough.
Tonight Keir Starmer has set the Labour Party on the path to what will be, at this rate, complete destruction. I suspect it’s worse than polling predicted.
Of course, it helps that people project onto Reform what they want to see. Some -mostly on the Tory right- see a radical deregulating government that lowers the country's trade barriers. Others -mostly ex-Labout voters- see them as an opportunity to protect British industry.
The Greens are hitting their vote share and then Reform are taking huge chunks.
Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:
REF: 53.0% (+53.0)
LAB: 29.3% (-50.9)
GRN: 12.6% (+12.6)
CON: 5.1% (-14.7)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:
REF: 53.0% (+53.0)
LAB: 29.3% (-50.9)
GRN: 12.6% (+12.6)
CON: 5.1% (-14.7)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:
REF: 53.0% (+53.0)
LAB: 29.3% (-50.9)
GRN: 12.6% (+12.6)
CON: 5.1% (-14.7)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:
REF: 53.0% (+53.0)
LAB: 29.3% (-50.9)
GRN: 12.6% (+12.6)
CON: 5.1% (-14.7)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Ditton, Hale Village and Halebank (Halton) council election result:
REF: 53.0% (+53.0)
LAB: 29.3% (-50.9)
GRN: 12.6% (+12.6)
CON: 5.1% (-14.7)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
It even predates his appointment of Mandelson.
It comes down to a fundamental flaw in his "personality" - and he has been exposed as being the unlikeable and directionless technocrat with zero leadership skills
He was gifted a huge majority without having a plan with how to govern.
His time is over. Kick him out of office and out of public life.
Newspaper headline writers are kind of brilliant.
https://x.com/NemoSalus/status/2052488263185695196?s=20
Going to be a lot of paper candidates elected.
It's astonishing to me how little some candidates are told, or how much they ask.
Likely to elect 24/25 Reform.
Still nowhere near the Labour majority.
https://x.com/britainelects/status/2052536217174970495?s=61
Labour have held a seat in Chorley !
They’ve held a second there now.
If anyone sweeps it will be Reform.
Send the Israelis a strongly worded complaint?
Call up our navy and send our remaining destroyer to the Med so as to be near the scene?
Drop a nuke on Tel Aviv?
I think there was virtually nothing Starmer could actually do, other than spout hot air that the Israelis would have ignored. He probably felt his political capital was better used elsewhere.
https://x.com/BritainElects/status/2052539060523065772
Chorley South West (Chorley) council election result:
GRN: 39.7% (+6.9)
REF: 35.5% (+35.5)
LAB: 19.4% (-32.1)
CON: 5.5% (-10.2)
Green GAIN from Labour.
Appleton (Halton) council election result:
REF: 42.2% (+42.2)
LAB: 37.1% (-47.6)
GRN: 14.9% (+14.9)
CON: 5.8% (-9.6)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
And is funny when some people win on around 25% (a rare split, but it happens).
I suspect that given the enthusiasm of their activist base (considerable), and also their lack of a track record (so they don't really know where they'll win), very few of those standing will be paper efforts.
That doesn't mean they won't have people elected who can't hack it - this happens to an extent in all parties (there is a reason there are a couple of byelections most Thursdays), and Reform will be suffering from the "double whammy" of starting from zero (so not much built in experience) and winning substantially (so thousands of new councillors). Very much a nice problem to have mind you.
REF: 51.6% (+51.6)
LAB: 28.7% (-56.9)
GRN: 16.2% (+16.2)
CON: 3.5% (-10.8)
Reform GAIN from Labour.
Biggest swing ever? 86% to sub 30% is apocalytic.
The likes of Britain Elects who are worth listening to (despite their Labour leaning they are pretty good at rising above that for impartial analysis) and have in the past done live streams don't seem to be doing them this evening.
People standing down in their area but agreeing to be a no hoper elsewhere. Spouses with little interest in politics. Random party members persuaded because more resources are allocated by central office if they have a full slate
It's also not as appealing a job as MP so harder to enthuse people.
It may not be a high percentage, but winning so many seats it doesn't need to be.
North (Peterborough) council election result:
CON: 34.8% (+7.2)
LAB: 31.6% (-40.8)
REF: 18.0% (+18.0)
GRN: 15.6% (+15.6)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
Bretton (Peterborough) council election result:
REF: 33.0% (+33.0)
CON: 30.1% (-14.1)
LAB: 19.5% (-16.6)
GRN: 11.5% (+11.5)
LDEM: 6.0% (-0.9)
Reform GAIN from Conservative.
CON: 34.8% (+7.2)
LAB: 31.6% (-40.8)
REF: 18.0% (+18.0)
GRN: 15.6% (+15.6)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
I'm sorry - if they're collapsing in wards with 72% previous shares in different parts of the country they're absolutely done. Has a local election ever taken all authority away from a PM before? Looking like it may be very hard to declare to be the leader of the UK on monday.
There is such a thing as being too successful if it means it'll take six months to figure out how a council works as everyone is new.
When do the Gaza results start coming through?
Ukip never managed anything like this. The SDP couldn’t win Warrington. Reform are going to win places even Boris Johnson couldn’t win against Corbyn. This is going to be qualitatively and quantitatively different to any insurgency that’s come before.
Paston and Walton (Peterborough) council election result:
CON: 37.8% (+12.7)
LDEM: 27.0% (-17.6)
REF: 25.2% (+18.1)
LAB: 7.0% (-11.6)
YP: 3.0% (+3.0)
YP: Your Party, yes, Your Party
Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Still, this is outer Liverpool where Lab were previously immune to unpopularity. I wonder what will happen in Knowsley?
This can also be defeated with practice though. (One subject got too good at this, they showed a physiological response to every object *except* the murder weapon...)