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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    carnforth said:

    kinabalu said:

    carnforth said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm slightly concerned about what "dropping the technocratic tone" means. I don't want to see him bopping around or talking cockney or anything like that. He's a serious white collar professional and shouldn't pretend otherwise. If the country wants something different it will have to be supplied by somebody else.

    Wasn't a serious technocrat when he was a young lawyer and wanting to abolish the monarchy and taking on progressive cases (cab rank my arse). Maybe he can remember what it feels like...
    But we're talking about his 'tone'.
    Fair point. Maybe he was a monotone twerp even when he was progressive.
    Well hopefully the next PM will deliver words of immense wisdom in a lovely modulated voice.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,947
    GIN1138 said:

    How did it all go so wrong so quickly?

    Broad but thin support lead to a huge majority but not the depth to sustain ambition meeting reality. Starmer makes Sunak seems exciting. A leader and government with very little political sense. Lots of waffly policy, but not enough planning to deliver. Zero preparation for Trump 2.0. Labour's basically a bit rubbish at politics, which is a considerable problem for a political party in government in troubling times.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Excitement building for a “Welsh Portillo moment” amid speculation that Eluned Morgan will become the first sitting First Minister to lose her seat

    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/2052505229791260761
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546

    Burnham should just lance the boil and challenge Starmer tomorrow.

    Burnham should just lance the boil and challenge Starmer tomorrow.

    If you think Burnham is the answer you clearly don’t know what the question is.
    That's a very clever and original formulation.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    kinabalu said:

    Burnham should just lance the boil and challenge Starmer tomorrow.

    Burnham should just lance the boil and challenge Starmer tomorrow.

    If you think Burnham is the answer you clearly don’t know what the question is.
    That's a very clever and original formulation.
    It is isn’t it! I thought so. Glad you do too.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,925
    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    I stick with my forecast that Starmer will still be PM in 2028
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Burnham will say he has a seat to run in over the next few days from what I hear.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,311
    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    I can. If you're an MP whose councillor base has been wiped out - which is going to happen all over England tonight - why wouldn't you do the right thing by your activists and challenge Starmer? As it stands you're going to lose your seat at the next election anyway.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    I stick with my forecast that Starmer will still be PM in 2028
    That’s brave ! My only forecast is he won’t go quietly and will take revenge on Burnham by ensuring if he does go he’ll try and ensure that Burnham won’t get into No 10.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    @TheScreamingEagles or @rcs1000 I have an idea for a header, can I write it up this weekend and share over email?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,327

    Burnham will say he has a seat to run in over the next few days from what I hear.

    He would say that, wouldn't he.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    MaxPB said:

    @TheScreamingEagles or @rcs1000 I have an idea for a header, can I write it up this weekend and share over email?

    Sure, you can send me a Vanilla message.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,419

    Burnham will say he has a seat to run in over the next few days from what I hear.

    Holborn and St Pancras?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    I know, this is from a Kemi Badenoch fan.

    Thinks the visual of Badenoch's backyard will be very powerful.

    Bold predictions, Tories for AV will be a thing after this weekend.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    No Labour minister wants to be the next James Purnell. That's really all there is to it. One resignation isn't enough and if it's not multiple simultaneous resignations then the next likely person can be bought off by making them foreign secretary and deputy PM.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    He's been a disappointment, but the immediacy and severity of the dislike without any honeymoon has been a shock.
    One of the weirdnesses of the 2024GE was that in vote share terms Labour did really badly. They only increased their vote share by 1.6pp when the government party was shedding 19.9pp. Meanwhile you had this massive surge of votes for Reform, taking them to 14.3% and third in vote share, and they only returned 5 MPs.

    I think this was behind a lot of the anger and hostility towards Starmer after the election. FPTP presenting Labour with nearly two-thirds of the seats on barely one-third of the vote was simply enraging.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited May 7

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    I know, this is from a Kemi Badenoch fan.

    Thinks the visual of Badenoch's backyard will be very powerful.

    Bold predictions, Tories for AV will be a thing after this weekend.
    Here's hoping (from a personal point of view) we can hang on to a few wards in Norfolk
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Also hearing that there's going to be some seats that are going to be won on a ridiculously low share of the vote.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296



    Bold predictions, Tories for AV will be a thing after this weekend.

    I sense a thread header coming on... 😂
  • MilesPartridgeMilesPartridge Posts: 89
    Does anyone have a link to any of the fantastic elections spreadsheets? Or other tools?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    No Labour minister wants to be the next James Purnell. That's really all there is to it. One resignation isn't enough and if it's not multiple simultaneous resignations then the next likely person can be bought off by making them foreign secretary and deputy PM.
    That’s why it has to be mass resignations. Labour only have one chance to change leader and I’m not sold on Burnham .
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How did it all go so wrong so quickly?

    Broad but thin support lead to a huge majority but not the depth to sustain ambition meeting reality. Starmer makes Sunak seems exciting. A leader and government with very little political sense. Lots of waffly policy, but not enough planning to deliver. Zero preparation for Trump 2.0. Labour's basically a bit rubbish at politics, which is a considerable problem for a political party in government in troubling times.
    The failure to plan a consistent suite of policies to address the well known problems has been absolute killer. Just saying growth, growth, growth, build, build, build, we aren't the Tories, doesn't actually solve the issues.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    No Labour minister wants to be the next James Purnell. That's really all there is to it. One resignation isn't enough and if it's not multiple simultaneous resignations then the next likely person can be bought off by making them foreign secretary and deputy PM.
    That’s why it has to be mass resignations. Labour only have one chance to change leader and I’m not sold on Burnham .
    Streeting will do well also
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    Off to bed. I’d normally host a big party with work colleagues on election night; a few fellow nerds would make it to the whisky at 3am.

    But no. Day time counts. UTTER WOKE NONSENSE.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,798
    sarissa said:

    Cookie said:

    CatMan said:

    I am a Forest fan for the night.

    Please don’t make Prince William happy tonight.

    I'm not a royalist, but isn't it a bit weird for a member of the royal family to support a specific club football team?
    Yup.

    This picture is why I love Prince Harry and hate Prince William, this is their reaction when Wales beat England at the rugby.

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/106/750x445/1196063.jpg
    Well he is the Prince of Wales. It would be odd for him not to support Wales.
    And who will the Duke of Rothesay, Earl of Carrick, Baron of Renfrew, Lord of the Isles support if Villa play a Scottish team?
    But Aston Villa is a club, not a country. He can have a favourite club. I would expect if England played Scotland he would have split loyalties, but humans are allowed to habe a favourite football club, no matter how arbitrarily chosen (it's not really on to pick an arbitrary team which happens to be one of the ones who always win, but Aston Villa doesn't really fall into that category).

    Even if Villa were playing Rothesay United, Carrick FC or Renfrew Athletic I wouldn't call it a conflict because football teams themselves are pretty arbitraru collections of mercenary professionals. If Rothesay United was made up purely of the yeomen of Rothesay, thinks might be different. But that level of meaning has long since deserted professsional football.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,419
    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How did it all go so wrong so quickly?

    Broad but thin support lead to a huge majority but not the depth to sustain ambition meeting reality. Starmer makes Sunak seems exciting. A leader and government with very little political sense. Lots of waffly policy, but not enough planning to deliver. Zero preparation for Trump 2.0. Labour's basically a bit rubbish at politics, which is a considerable problem for a political party in government in troubling times.
    Labour is bad at both politics and government. Starmer and his Cabinet have no vision or charisma, and the ideology they are trying to impose, of ever higher taxes to fund mediocre to poor public services, has no attraction to anyone except welfare claimants and public sector workers.

    But their huge majority means that we are stuck with them for three more years unless they do the decent thing. And as decency is in even shorter supply in this government than competence, I'm almost certain they won't.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623

    Also hearing that there's going to be some seats that are going to be won on a ridiculously low share of the vote.

    Is this devolved or locals?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2052498109536628847

    Emotions in Labour are running [high]. One MP said they "feel sick" and added they "can see why this is a moment of peril in a way I didn't hours ago. It's the collective grief and agony that could absolutely take him out."

    Something I see so many times.

    Despite things being obvious and foreseeable, far ahead, many, many people only "discover" them when the events smack them in the face.

    See the slow motion disaster over Hormuz. Comment on it, and you will get numbers of people denying it is happening, will be that bad etc.
    Most people aren't able to fully prepare for the emotional hit of a traumatic event in advance of it happening despite knowing that it probably will.

    So, yes, you'll continue to see it so many times. And unless you're a Vulcan people will see it in you.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,579
    Eabhal said:

    Off to bed. I’d normally host a big party with work colleagues on election night; a few fellow nerds would make it to the whisky at 3am.

    But no. Day time counts. UTTER WOKE NONSENSE.

    Not for local elections surely?! I'd only stay up and watch results for a GE or US elections where I've got a substantial amount riding on specific seats or overall share etc... seems like a complete waste of sleep to stay up for locals.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    Kemi survives because Tories know she is the least of their problems and anyway, who else if there to challenge? The only possible altnertaive, Jenrick, has left for REF so who else is there?

    Starmer I'm unsure about. It feels like "end of days" for him and Labour but then again Labour NEVER get rid of their leader no matter how bad things get - We remember all the failed plots to oust El Gord and look at the years they stuck it out with Jezza...

    SKS to lead Labour into Election '29 is still my guess, but we shall see as ever!
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Fishing said:

    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How did it all go so wrong so quickly?

    Broad but thin support lead to a huge majority but not the depth to sustain ambition meeting reality. Starmer makes Sunak seems exciting. A leader and government with very little political sense. Lots of waffly policy, but not enough planning to deliver. Zero preparation for Trump 2.0. Labour's basically a bit rubbish at politics, which is a considerable problem for a political party in government in troubling times.
    Labour is bad at both politics and government. Starmer and his Cabinet have no vision or charisma, and the ideology they are trying to impose, of ever higher taxes to fund mediocre to poor public services, has no attraction to anyone except welfare claimants and public sector workers.

    But their huge majority means that we are stuck with them for three more years unless they do the decent thing. And as decency is in even shorter supply in this government than competence, I'm almost certain they won't.
    I don’t really see why they should call an election. Why didn’t Johnson after Partygate?

    They need a new leader with a new emphasis on doing stuff with the majority they have and they’ll do just fine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Eabhal said:

    Also hearing that there's going to be some seats that are going to be won on a ridiculously low share of the vote.

    Is this devolved or locals?
    Locals.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    No Labour minister wants to be the next James Purnell. That's really all there is to it. One resignation isn't enough and if it's not multiple simultaneous resignations then the next likely person can be bought off by making them foreign secretary and deputy PM.
    That’s why it has to be mass resignations. Labour only have one chance to change leader and I’m not sold on Burnham .
    Streeting will do well also
    I like Streeting but it’s risky because his majority is just 500 votes .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,798
    Are all the counts tomorrow? Even in the North East?
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    With the majority they’ve got, Labour really should try making some actual radical change.

    Starmer has become really unpopular by doing basically nothing that’s actually meaningful. Which is itself impressive in how incredibly stupid it is.

    I sense Burnham might actually do things even if I disagree with them. Same for Streeting.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    He's been a disappointment, but the immediacy and severity of the dislike without any honeymoon has been a shock.
    One of the weirdnesses of the 2024GE was that in vote share terms Labour did really badly. They only increased their vote share by 1.6pp when the government party was shedding 19.9pp. Meanwhile you had this massive surge of votes for Reform, taking them to 14.3% and third in vote share, and they only returned 5 MPs.

    I think this was behind a lot of the anger and hostility towards Starmer after the election. FPTP presenting Labour with nearly two-thirds of the seats on barely one-third of the vote was simply enraging.
    This exactly.
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 882

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Uncanny valley.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    Off to bed. I’d normally host a big party with work colleagues on election night; a few fellow nerds would make it to the whisky at 3am.

    But no. Day time counts. UTTER WOKE NONSENSE.

    Not for local elections surely?! I'd only stay up and watch results for a GE or US elections where I've got a substantial amount riding on specific seats or overall share etc... seems like a complete waste of sleep to stay up for locals.
    Scottish/UK GE/US.

    Maybe I’ll progress to locals as I mature.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 847

    DoctorG said:

    Turnout in my local polling station was 50% at the close. Assume that's not counting anyone eligible for postals. Usually will be slightly higher than the average as its a rural polling booth

    I'm guessing you are Scotland/Wales? I can't see 50-60% in a local.
    Yep, rural SW Scotland
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789

    Ava-Santina

    @AvaSantina
    ·
    39m
    Hearing of chaos in Wes Streeting’s back garden Redbridge, where voters were forced to wait in big queues.

    Lawyers have written to council demanding anyone in queue pre-10pm must be let in.

    (Post 10pm!): Independents accuse Returning Officer of failing to deploy enough staff.

    https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/2052493682931089431

    According to sunil a security guard was insisting people vote one at a time.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    The insane social media drives me nuts. “Together, we will build a Great Britain” with dozens of union flags.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,738
    edited May 7
    Starmer will go when, and only when, there is a clear majority view within the PLP about who should replace him. At the moment, there is no such clear majority view. There might be if Burnham was in the PLP - but he isn't.
    So I think he'll hang on for some time yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764
    Kicking off in Iran with America bombing them.

    Perhaps that might stop Starmer being ousted this weekend.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 847
    sarissa said:

    Cookie said:

    CatMan said:

    I am a Forest fan for the night.

    Please don’t make Prince William happy tonight.

    I'm not a royalist, but isn't it a bit weird for a member of the royal family to support a specific club football team?
    Yup.

    This picture is why I love Prince Harry and hate Prince William, this is their reaction when Wales beat England at the rugby.

    https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/106/750x445/1196063.jpg
    Well he is the Prince of Wales. It would be odd for him not to support Wales.
    And who will the Duke of Rothesay, Earl of Carrick, Baron of Renfrew, Lord of the Isles support if Villa play a Scottish team?
    He's very fortunate there are no Scottish league teams in Carrick or Bute, Ayr United would be classed as in "Kyle"
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,166
    Cookie said:

    Are all the counts tomorrow? Even in the North East?

    No, 1/3 of English councils up for election will count tonight, 2/3 plus Scotland and Wales tomorrow (and a bit on Saturday).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,534

    With the majority they’ve got, Labour really should try making some actual radical change.

    Starmer has become really unpopular by doing basically nothing that’s actually meaningful. Which is itself impressive in how incredibly stupid it is.

    I sense Burnham might actually do things even if I disagree with them. Same for Streeting.

    Whether people like the changes or not they’ve brought in those changes to renters and workers rights.

    And they’ve had a relentlessly bad press . Some of course deserved but not all of it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332

    Kicking off in Iran with America bombing them.

    Perhaps that might stop Starmer being ousted this weekend.

    Oh FFS, that combined with definitely not COVID MK2, I need to do a load of travel, particularly to Asia in the coming months.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,332
    edited May 7
    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    The insane social media drives me nuts. “Together, we will build a Great Britain” with dozens of union flags.
    The advice he has got over social media is terrible. He has gone from old man on "the facebook" with loads of text that nobody reads to trying to be TikToky Starmer, which is totally inauthentic.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,798
    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    The insane social media drives me nuts. “Together, we will build a Great Britain” with dozens of union flags.
    In no other country in the world would the equivalent of this be in the least bit controversial.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,623
    Welfare U-turn was politically the dumbest mistake he made.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,344

    Kicking off in Iran with America bombing them.

    Perhaps that might stop Starmer being ousted this weekend.

    He'll still be in No 10 for a while whilst he is being ousted with the leader election timetable etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    kinabalu said:

    Burnham should just lance the boil and challenge Starmer tomorrow.

    Burnham should just lance the boil and challenge Starmer tomorrow.

    If you think Burnham is the answer you clearly don’t know what the question is.
    That's a very clever and original formulation.
    Some things become cliche for a reason.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    Cookie said:

    Are all the counts tomorrow? Even in the North East?

    No, 1/3 of English councils up for election will count tonight, 2/3 plus Scotland and Wales tomorrow (and a bit on Saturday).
    This f*cking country has gone to the dogs. Think of the political nerds, people!
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623
    edited May 7
    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    The insane social media drives me nuts. “Together, we will build a Great Britain” with dozens of union flags.
    In no other country in the world would the equivalent of this be in the least bit controversial.
    I don’t mind the patriotism. It’s the “live, laugh, love” quality. The plastic lawn of politicians.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    edited May 7
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    I know, this is from a Kemi Badenoch fan.

    Thinks the visual of Badenoch's backyard will be very powerful.

    Bold predictions, Tories for AV will be a thing after this weekend.
    Whilst most electoral changes happen because people think it will advantage them, that seems a little too blatant given their dire situation.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,789
    edited May 7
    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    The insane social media drives me nuts. “Together, we will build a Great Britain” with dozens of union flags.
    In no other country in the world would the equivalent of this be in the least bit controversial.
    we didn't build a great empire off the back of waving a few flags around - it's utterly tinpot
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,207
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    No Labour minister wants to be the next James Purnell. That's really all there is to it. One resignation isn't enough and if it's not multiple simultaneous resignations then the next likely person can be bought off by making them foreign secretary and deputy PM.
    That’s why it has to be mass resignations. Labour only have one chance to change leader and I’m not sold on Burnham .
    Streeting will do well also
    I like Streeting but it’s risky because his majority is just 500 votes .
    Wes Streeting's majority does not matter. First, if Labour lose the next election he is out anyway. Second, after today (or after the weekend) every Labour minister and backbencher will have at best low notional majorities. Third, a Premiership term from now to the election is three years which is as long or longer than most recent Prime Ministers.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016
    Eabhal said:

    Cookie said:

    Eabhal said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    The insane social media drives me nuts. “Together, we will build a Great Britain” with dozens of union flags.
    In no other country in the world would the equivalent of this be in the least bit controversial.
    I don’t mind the patriotism. It’s the “live, laugh, love” quality. The plastic lawn of politicians.
    It's empty calories propaganda. Colour by numbers PR. The Idiots Guide to Blairism, implemented by a wooden puppet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    edited May 7

    Delightful Anecdote Alert! Seriously, this is the best thing that has ever happened to me at a Polling Station since I first started wasting my time in those places in October 1974…..

    In the Ward where I was telling today, there are five polling stations, roughly running North/South. The polling station in the middle (which is the largest village) shares its location with a pre-school nursery. Without any concern for the exigencies of popular democracy, the nursery decided to book a Petting Zoo to attend today. You know the sort of thing – a calf, a pony, a donkey, some chickens, rabbits and guinea pigs for the children to interact with.

    It’s now very clear that that particular polling station had a noticeably higher turnout than the other four. Basically, people were turning out not to vote for any of the six candidates offering themselves for election, but because they wanted to play with the sodding bunny rabbits!

    I think in future every polling station should have a zoological opportunity.

    Excellent stuff, and suitably non-partisan as a driver of voting.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,207

    Ava-Santina

    @AvaSantina
    ·
    39m
    Hearing of chaos in Wes Streeting’s back garden Redbridge, where voters were forced to wait in big queues.

    Lawyers have written to council demanding anyone in queue pre-10pm must be let in.

    (Post 10pm!): Independents accuse Returning Officer of failing to deploy enough staff.

    https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/2052493682931089431

    Redbridge's ‘one in, one out’ problems were first reported by pb's man on the spot. @Sunil_Prasannan.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    I still put the official merger/alliance of Reform and the Tories for just after the next election, on the grounds they need to know for sure which one will be the dominant in the new combined entity, but I expect to see more open talking about it after tomorrow.

    Not that there are not major problems, Reform scent blood and so don't see an incentive to make nice with the Tories even if the latter change their tune and accept junior status (which to date they are quite reasonably unwilling to do), but in an era where seemingly PMs can barely last 2 years even if they won a big majority, I don't see a slow rebuild of support being on the cards for the Tories even if it should, given they have more than 10x the MPs of Reform.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 25,016

    Delightful Anecdote Alert! Seriously, this is the best thing that has ever happened to me at a Polling Station since I first started wasting my time in those places in October 1974…..

    In the Ward where I was telling today, there are five polling stations, roughly running North/South. The polling station in the middle (which is the largest village) shares its location with a pre-school nursery. Without any concern for the exigencies of popular democracy, the nursery decided to book a Petting Zoo to attend today. You know the sort of thing – a calf, a pony, a donkey, some chickens, rabbits and guinea pigs for the children to interact with.

    It’s now very clear that that particular polling station had a noticeably higher turnout than the other four. Basically, people were turning out not to vote for any of the six candidates offering themselves for election, but because they wanted to play with the sodding bunny rabbits!

    I think in future every polling station should have a zoological opportunity.

    But what if you book the meet-the-spider experience for the polling stations where you expect your opponent to do well and the cute kittens for the polling stations where you are strongest? Might that not skew the result?

    What if the candidate who wins in your ward owes their victory to the boosted turnout in the largest village? What if they're related to the head of the pre-school nursery...?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,311

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
    *googles 'Keir Starmer'*

    *literal first result is a picture of Keir Starmer with a Union Jack behind him*
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited May 7
    Beeb reporting Tory source says Basildon will be a Ref clean sweep (14 wards)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 14,623

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
    *googles 'Keir Starmer'*

    *literal first result is a picture of Keir Starmer with a Union Jack behind him*
    (It’s only a Jack if on the front of a ship).

    Now, bed.
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    Heh
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
    *googles 'Keir Starmer'*

    *literal first result is a picture of Keir Starmer with a Union Jack behind him*
    Whatever you’re looking at is not a Union Jack. Try again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,923
    edited May 7
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    It’s much easier to get rid of Tory leaders , simply put the letters in anonymously.

    With Labour you can’t hide which makes it more risky. Unless there’s a mass cabinet revolt then I can’t see Starmer going anytime soon .

    No Labour minister wants to be the next James Purnell. That's really all there is to it. One resignation isn't enough and if it's not multiple simultaneous resignations then the next likely person can be bought off by making them foreign secretary and deputy PM.
    That’s why it has to be mass resignations. Labour only have one chance to change leader and I’m not sold on Burnham .
    Streeting will do well also
    I like Streeting but it’s risky because his majority is just 500 votes .
    That's irrelevant rather than risky.

    If he were to become PM, what would matter is how well he did the job.
    The size of his majority at the last election wouldn't matter in the slightest ... if he were either a great PM (in which case he'd be re-elected) or a rubbish one (he'd be turfed out), the vote at the last election would count for nothing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2052498109536628847

    Emotions in Labour are running [high]. One MP said they "feel sick" and added they "can see why this is a moment of peril in a way I didn't hours ago. It's the collective grief and agony that could absolutely take him out."

    Something I see so many times.

    Despite things being obvious and foreseeable, far ahead, many, many people only "discover" them when the events smack them in the face.

    See the slow motion disaster over Hormuz. Comment on it, and you will get numbers of people denying it is happening, will be that bad etc.
    Most people aren't able to fully prepare for the emotional hit of a traumatic event in advance of it happening despite knowing that it probably will.

    So, yes, you'll continue to see it so many times. And unless you're a Vulcan people will see it in you.
    It's quite useful to embrace the future. That way you make winning bets. And have toilet paper.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546
    It'll probably all work out for the best anyway. Surviving Trump2 is priority number one. Stopping Farage a close second.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,632
    Miliband has jumped the gun, unless Labour are third or worse on seats and NEV tomorrow I expect Starmer to survive
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605

    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    How did it all go so wrong so quickly?

    Broad but thin support lead to a huge majority but not the depth to sustain ambition meeting reality. Starmer makes Sunak seems exciting. A leader and government with very little political sense. Lots of waffly policy, but not enough planning to deliver. Zero preparation for Trump 2.0. Labour's basically a bit rubbish at politics, which is a considerable problem for a political party in government in troubling times.
    The failure to plan a consistent suite of policies to address the well known problems has been absolute killer. Just saying growth, growth, growth, build, build, build, we aren't the Tories, doesn't actually solve the issues.
    Not as though they've been consistent in going after those things even rhetorically either, though that at least is not unusual.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,789
    Leon said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    Heh
    You fully on board with the corrupt crypto grifter now then?
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000
    HYUFD said:

    Miliband has jumped the gun, unless Labour are third or worse on seats and NEV tomorrow I expect Starmer to survive

    I don’t. I think this is it
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,530

    Ava-Santina

    @AvaSantina
    ·
    39m
    Hearing of chaos in Wes Streeting’s back garden Redbridge, where voters were forced to wait in big queues.

    Lawyers have written to council demanding anyone in queue pre-10pm must be let in.

    (Post 10pm!): Independents accuse Returning Officer of failing to deploy enough staff.

    https://x.com/AvaSantina/status/2052493682931089431

    Redbridge's ‘one in, one out’ problems were first reported by pb's man on the spot. @Sunil_Prasannan.
    Indeed!

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5535509/#Comment_5535509
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,546

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2052498109536628847

    Emotions in Labour are running [high]. One MP said they "feel sick" and added they "can see why this is a moment of peril in a way I didn't hours ago. It's the collective grief and agony that could absolutely take him out."

    Something I see so many times.

    Despite things being obvious and foreseeable, far ahead, many, many people only "discover" them when the events smack them in the face.

    See the slow motion disaster over Hormuz. Comment on it, and you will get numbers of people denying it is happening, will be that bad etc.
    Most people aren't able to fully prepare for the emotional hit of a traumatic event in advance of it happening despite knowing that it probably will.

    So, yes, you'll continue to see it so many times. And unless you're a Vulcan people will see it in you.
    It's quite useful to embrace the future. That way you make winning bets. And have toilet paper.
    It's also quite useful to be able to empathise with people. That way you gain a better understanding of why they behave as they do.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,530

    Beeb reporting Tory source says Basildon will be a Ref clean sweep (14 wards)

    Just Can't Get Enough?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    Starmer needs about 100 days to beat the George Hamilton-Gordon in the PM rankings. Looks like a struggle. If he doesn't announce a timetable to go in the next 2 weeks he may make it, but the pressure will be immense, and the Cabinet are leaking like a particularly holey sieve.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 941

    Picture caption time.


    So I had the undivided attention of Donald Trump...
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    I voted Conservative. Our local councillors are Conservative and Lib Dem, and they seem to care about local issues. I can imagine Reform candidates to be people chancing their arm and not really knowing what to do. I’ll probably vote Conservative at the GE too, as I think Reform are too brash Dubai/MAGA.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376

    Beeb reporting Tory source says Basildon will be a Ref clean sweep (14 wards)

    Just Can't Get Enough?
    Tories setting them up so when it's 13 out of 14 they can claim victory, lol
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,538

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    He's been a disappointment, but the immediacy and severity of the dislike without any honeymoon has been a shock.
    One of the weirdnesses of the 2024GE was that in vote share terms Labour did really badly. They only increased their vote share by 1.6pp when the government party was shedding 19.9pp. Meanwhile you had this massive surge of votes for Reform, taking them to 14.3% and third in vote share, and they only returned 5 MPs.

    I think this was behind a lot of the anger and hostility towards Starmer after the election. FPTP presenting Labour with nearly two-thirds of the seats on barely one-third of the vote was simply enraging.
    There were far more votes to the right of Labour (Lib Dem, Con, Reform) than to the left (Green, SNP, PC, Lefty Indies) at 2024GE.
    So which way should he tack to attract more votes?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,311

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
    *googles 'Keir Starmer'*

    *literal first result is a picture of Keir Starmer with a Union Jack behind him*
    Whatever you’re looking at is not a Union Jack. Try again.
    What I'm looking at is a tedious pedant :p
  • Leon_VotedForStarmerLeon_VotedForStarmer Posts: 69,000

    Leon said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    Boooooooo
    Heh
    You fully on board with the corrupt crypto grifter now then?
    Not at all. I’d really like an alternative to Nigel fucking Farage. But we are where we are. The country desperately needs a hard right government to put the boot into multiple vested interests, they must also barbecue several dozen sacred cows

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 104,605
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    I voted Conservative. Our local councillors are Conservative and Lib Dem, and they seem to care about local issues. I can imagine Reform candidates to be people chancing their arm and not really knowing what to do. I’ll probably vote Conservative at the GE too, as I think Reform are too brash Dubai/MAGA.
    My experience of Reform councillors is that they are a mixed bag, which is not surprising as they are mostly the same types of people who get picked by any other party. Some absolutely throw themselves into local issues, some are time servers, and some, a minority I'd say, are real life online culture warriors.

    The challenge for Reform is how well the latter get on with the others, who may like that stuff online but know how to get along and focus on local issues which don't align conveniently with internet tough talking.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,319

    Delightful Anecdote Alert! Seriously, this is the best thing that has ever happened to me at a Polling Station since I first started wasting my time in those places in October 1974…..

    In the Ward where I was telling today, there are five polling stations, roughly running North/South. The polling station in the middle (which is the largest village) shares its location with a pre-school nursery. Without any concern for the exigencies of popular democracy, the nursery decided to book a Petting Zoo to attend today. You know the sort of thing – a calf, a pony, a donkey, some chickens, rabbits and guinea pigs for the children to interact with.

    It’s now very clear that that particular polling station had a noticeably higher turnout than the other four. Basically, people were turning out not to vote for any of the six candidates offering themselves for election, but because they wanted to play with the sodding bunny rabbits!

    I think in future every polling station should have a zoological opportunity.

    You should be able to determine people’s likely voting intention by seeing which animal they pet.
    Labour - a sloth
    Tories - a scorpion
    Lib Dems - a grey curly dog from the Isle of Wight
    Reform - a white pit bull
    Greens - a vegan deer
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    I don’t get the visceral hatred of Starmer .

    Even before the general election he seemed to drive people to distraction.

    I am always taken aback how much even Labour friends of mine hate him. I don't know if its the voice or his default lawyer-bot mode or what, but he really appears to rub people up the wrong way.
    Yes I’ve seen the same although they did at least think he made the right decision on Iran . I think the Reform chasing has been a big issue .
    Eg hardly ever seeing him without a union jack in shot. I'd love to see an end to all that with whoever takes over.
    He never appears with a Union Jack in shot.
    *googles 'Keir Starmer'*

    *literal first result is a picture of Keir Starmer with a Union Jack behind him*
    Whatever you’re looking at is not a Union Jack. Try again.
    What I'm looking at is a tedious pedant :p
    Well if you want to shit on the flag of your country at least get its name right. 😜
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,764

    Beeb reporting Tory source says Basildon will be a Ref clean sweep (14 wards)

    Where I lead the BBC follows.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 23,296
    isam said:

    kle4 said:

    Hearing from a reliable source that the Tories have been utterly routed in Suffolk, Norfolk, and Essex.

    Grim as feck.

    No one wants to hear from them anymore, and, for some reason, most Tories love Reform even when they are not in it. Some just hide it out of legacy loyalty and to not upset the, maybe 10%, who don't want to merge with Reform.
    I voted Conservative. Our local councillors are Conservative and Lib Dem, and they seem to care about local issues. I can imagine Reform candidates to be people chancing their arm and not really knowing what to do. I’ll probably vote Conservative at the GE too, as I think Reform are too brash Dubai/MAGA.
    I didn't get a vote today, but if I had,it would have been Conservative and I, too, will almost certainly vote Conservative at the GE as I like Kemi and think she's doing her best.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited May 7
    A handful of parish/town council results have trickled on so we might start getting some maintenance event results soon
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,438
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/2052498109536628847

    Emotions in Labour are running [high]. One MP said they "feel sick" and added they "can see why this is a moment of peril in a way I didn't hours ago. It's the collective grief and agony that could absolutely take him out."

    Something I see so many times.

    Despite things being obvious and foreseeable, far ahead, many, many people only "discover" them when the events smack them in the face.

    See the slow motion disaster over Hormuz. Comment on it, and you will get numbers of people denying it is happening, will be that bad etc.
    Most people aren't able to fully prepare for the emotional hit of a traumatic event in advance of it happening despite knowing that it probably will.

    So, yes, you'll continue to see it so many times. And unless you're a Vulcan people will see it in you.
    It's quite useful to embrace the future. That way you make winning bets. And have toilet paper.
    It's also quite useful to be able to empathise with people. That way you gain a better understanding of why they behave as they do.
    Empathy doesn't mean denial of the future.

    For example, this afternoon I was saying to someone in the charity world, that I expect to be giving to charities dealing with the consequences of Hormuz. People starving.

    If people doesn't think about the unthinkable, it still happens.
This discussion has been closed.