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As we approach the Starmergeddon this is what the betting markets currently say

SystemSystem Posts: 13,173
edited May 7 in General
As we approach the Starmergeddon this is what the betting markets currently say– politicalbetting.com

The level of the pain and punishment Labour are going to experience from today’s election will be similar to hiring a couple of dominatrices for an evening then at the end of the evening telling them ‘it’s time to hit the sack’ but the question is how will Labour respond?

Read the full story here

Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    After Brown and then Corbyn - a slow motion comedy is a certainty.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    edited May 7
    Malmesbury said:

    After Brown and then Corbyn - a slow motion comedy is a certainty.

    If Streeting doesn’t move by Monday he’s lost

    Edit you need the quote
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    Malmesbury said:

    After Brown and then Corbyn - a slow motion comedy is a certainty.

    If only Monty Python had a quote for this.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,865
    Maybe Labour to do better than expected eg come 2nd in Wales. Reform to underperform compared with some predictions?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,786
    Where there is a will, there is a way.

    If hundreds of MPs decide they want Burnham to better run the country try to save their seats, then a way will be found to make him leader.

    Rulebook and Starmer be damned.

    If they do not decide that, its moot.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    londonpubman said:

    Maybe Labour to do better than expected eg come 2nd in Wales. Reform to underperform compared with some predictions?

    That would need the biggest polling miss of all time . Labour have a better chance in Scotland of finishing second .
  • isamisam Posts: 44,230
    "As for the next Prime Minister market, I think punters are realising the problem with Andy Burnham is that right now he’s not a member of parliament"

    They don't seem to care, he is trading at the shortest price he has ever been
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    londonpubman said:

    Maybe Labour to do better than expected eg come 2nd in Wales. Reform to underperform compared with some predictions?

    No. Reform are riding the wave. Hopefully Plaid are riding higher.

    No interest in Labour whatsoever, and many of us have voted for an alternative to punish Starmer and Reform.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 59,883
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Where there is a will, there is a way.

    If hundreds of MPs decide they want Burnham to better run the country try to save their seats, then a way will be found to make him leader.

    Rulebook and Starmer be damned.

    If they do not decide that, its moot.

    The other parties should agree on a Martin Bell style candidate to stand against him to oppose the stitch up.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    Sir Keir will not be PM for much longer
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    ozymandias said:

    Malmesbury said:

    After Brown and then Corbyn - a slow motion comedy is a certainty.

    If only Monty Python had a quote for this.
    There are so many that would apply

    "Tis but a scratch."
    "He's not the Messiah. He's a naughty boy!"
    "You've got to think for yourselves! You're ALL individuals!"
    "Help! Help! I'm being repressed! Come & see the violence inherent in the system!"
    :
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    londonpubman said:

    Maybe Labour to do better than expected eg come 2nd in Wales. Reform to underperform compared with some predictions?

    Tolkien wrote of a magical and distant world with dragons and all sorts of weird shit going on, but not quite as much as magical as yours.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,835
    FPT
    CatMan said:

    So, three English teams will be in the three European finals (God I hope this comment doesn't come back to haunt me).

    Oh bollocks
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,323
    This could turn into a total fiasco .

    Labour MPs sit on their hands waiting for Burnham to return and then he fails to win the by-election!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,380
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    Sir Keir will not be PM for much longer

    does two years count as not much longer?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 28,786
    Malmesbury said:

    ozymandias said:

    Malmesbury said:

    After Brown and then Corbyn - a slow motion comedy is a certainty.

    If only Monty Python had a quote for this.
    There are so many that would apply

    "Tis but a scratch."
    "He's not the Messiah. He's a naughty boy!"
    "You've got to think for yourselves! You're ALL individuals!"
    "Help! Help! I'm being repressed! Come & see the violence inherent in the system!"
    :
    Inserts entire parrot sketch
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    ozymandias said:

    londonpubman said:

    Maybe Labour to do better than expected eg come 2nd in Wales. Reform to underperform compared with some predictions?

    Tolkien wrote of a magical and distant world with dragons and all sorts of weird shit going on, but not quite as much as magical as yours.
    "You can’t expect to wield supreme executive power just ’cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!"
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,536
    The key question is does Streeting have 80 MPs already lined up. If so, then it should kick off soon
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    Fpt
    algarkirk said:

    Fairliered said:

    ydoethur said:

    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Cicero said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    You don't think Scotland's large banking sector might see it as an issue that they have in effect no lender of last resort?

    Or the EU while negotiating accession terms?
    ydoethur said:

    theProle said:

    Cicero said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Cicero said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    HYUFD said:

    AnneJGP said:

    If they want to have another vote, let them vote. If they want to leave, let them go. Sad & all that but no point in compulsion to stay.

    No, that is weakness and nationalist appeasement. The SNP of course just want referendum after referendum until they win
    I know! I mean one referendum in 307 years is just excessive.
    It was a miserable divided time. Not to mention the economic joke of the so-called white paper. Gong through all of that again is a more or less entirely negative process, so I truly hope the result stuffs up all those who think having a heated and pointless argument based on the economic illiteracy of independence is a good idea.
    Using highly developed diagnostic methods and deep psychological analysis I have come to a sophisticated hypothesis regarding Unionists.

    They won’t allow Scots another referendum because they’re shiting it they’d lose.
    Bollocks. You lost last time, and you will lose again.

    The economic basis YES put forward was laughable, and you still do not have the answers to the absolutely basic questions- 1) how do you manage a new currency- because neither Sterling nor the Euro will be available on day one? 2) How do you manage the national debt especially since the Scottish credit rating will be significantly lower for several years, while the new credit is assessed by the global markets? 3) how do manage the banking system and transfer assets that cannot be taken in by the new and separate banks in Scotland? 4) What public sector cuts do you intend to make, given the unsustainable level of expenditure across the board.?

    The truth is that the SNP promises jelly and ice cream for everyone, starting tomorrow, but in the real world independence will be a massive slog that would take decades to come good, if it ever did, but few -if any- have the actual balls to say so and I have lost all patience with the economic bullshite that lies at the heart of the nationalist hoodwink of the Scottish people.

    And before you start, I have actually done this stuff and worked with several governments including establishing new currencies, and new public policies, involving huge and wrenching restructuring and unemployment and even decades later, it is not clear that the right choices were made.

    Then one more little joker: How do you manage defence when Putin is a constant threat?
    I don’t understand the problem who think currency will be a problem. There is nothing to stop an independent Scotland using Sterling, Euro, or even USD as the official currency. They will be able to make payments in it, take payments in it, even borrow in it.
    All it doesn't give them is the ability to set interest rates, or print money, but it's probably in their best interests not to have those levers available initially anyway, as they'll be too tempted to try pulling them.
    You don't think Scotland's large banking sector might see it as an issue that they have in effect no lender of last resort?

    Or the EU while negotiating accession terms?
    It seems Scotland is uniquely too wee, too poor and too stupid to become an independent country. After 319 years of Westminster rule, it doesn’t say much for the current arrangements benefiting Scotland.
    That is just polemic. The reason Scotland is not independent is that the Scots voted not to be in a free and fair referendum. For me that is good news, not because I don't like Scotland and the Scots but because I do. I live in England and can see Scotland from the place where I live.

    It’s likely that that 2014 referendum with Spain saying that Scotland would never join the EU created a result that isn’t twice now.

    It’s would be far easier for Scotland to join the EU after splitting from a country outside the EU than from splitting from one inside it it.

    The former is a reward and punishment for the country that left, the latter was 2014.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    Malmesbury said:

    ozymandias said:

    londonpubman said:

    Maybe Labour to do better than expected eg come 2nd in Wales. Reform to underperform compared with some predictions?

    Tolkien wrote of a magical and distant world with dragons and all sorts of weird shit going on, but not quite as much as magical as yours.
    "You can’t expect to wield supreme executive power just ’cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!"
    More apt for Starmer is maybe “brave brave Sir Robin..”
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,865
    I think Keir will still be PM 2028
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,536
    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    The key question is does Streeting have 80 MPs already lined up. If so, then it should kick off soon

    Nope the question is does he have another MPs to be able to convince tomorrow the 80-x he needs that it’s game on
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,477
    Brisk voting in SE London when I voted around 7.30 this evening, had to wait in line. An active Labour GOTV effort on my road.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,547
    edited May 7
    isam said:

    "As for the next Prime Minister market, I think punters are realising the problem with Andy Burnham is that right now he’s not a member of parliament"

    They don't seem to care, he is trading at the shortest price he has ever been

    We were discussing the issue of wanting something untrue to be true vs reality, just yesterday.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    williamglenn said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Where there is a will, there is a way.

    If hundreds of MPs decide they want Burnham to better run the country try to save their seats, then a way will be found to make him leader.

    Rulebook and Starmer be damned.

    If they do not decide that, its moot.

    The other parties should agree on a Martin Bell style candidate to stand against him to oppose the stitch up.
    Did you pay your £3 to vote for LOTO Corbyn?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    edited May 7
    londonpubman said:

    I think Keir will still be PM 2028

    Which is an excellent thing for us that want the Labour Party to be completely destroyed and erased from the British political landscape.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,464
    This morning I picked up a call on my wife’s mobile. It was a chap from the Green Party.

    When I opined that they have been taken over by the far left and are full of antisemites he said "Bollocks" and hung up.

    However, this does tell me that they have organised a GOTV operation, and must think they stand a chance in our ward. I doubt that they have, mind.
  • BatteryCorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorse Posts: 7,134
    ozymandias said:

    londonpubman said:

    I think Keir will still be PM 2028

    Which is an excellent thing for us that want the Labour Party to be completely destroyed and erased from the British political landscape.
    We need a successful Labour government.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,473
    wooliedyed said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
    Suggests Reform might get an unexpected kicking...
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 424
    Polling station turnout up 8-10% in my area. Not sure what to make of that.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    Most likely to be a stop Team Farage turnout?

    Or it could be anyone but Labour.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,848
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    ozymandias said:

    londonpubman said:

    I think Keir will still be PM 2028

    Which is an excellent thing for us that want the Labour Party to be completely destroyed and erased from the British political landscape.
    We need a successful Labour government.
    A successful any kind of government would be a start
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    There seems to have been a real lack of expectations management/spinning from all sides today.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    edited May 7
    Cicero said:

    wooliedyed said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
    Suggests Reform might get an unexpected kicking...
    Unless its Non Voters for Nigel turnout of course!
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,887
    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    ozymandias said:

    londonpubman said:

    I think Keir will still be PM 2028

    Which is an excellent thing for us that want the Labour Party to be completely destroyed and erased from the British political landscape.
    We need a successful Labour government.
    Far from it. The British people are now being taught the lesson and have now learned, that the Labour Party is the enemy of all. Let it rot in peace.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    wooliedyed said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
    Depends. Is this the core vote turning out or those who don’t vote as often (young/disillusioned voters)? If it’s the latter then that favours Ref and Grn
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    wooliedyed said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
    If Reform do less well than anticipated surely the only winners are the PB Tories.
  • eekeek Posts: 33,922
    Cicero said:

    wooliedyed said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
    Suggests Reform might get an unexpected kicking...
    Only if Lab/Con/LD vote for the possible winner rather than they default (usual) option
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 72,181
    Mexicanpete said:

    wooliedyed said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Some suggestions in various places that turnout is up in several places. Could indicate more people who don't usually vote turning up - this is unlikely to be good for Labour

    I was thinking about this earlier - if the polling shows Reform voters most motivated theyd presumably want lower turnout as theirs are most likely to vote. The higher the turnout the more core Lab/Con/LD etc are turning out?
    If Reform do less well than anticipated surely the only winners are the PB Tories.
    Everyone wins if Farage underperforms
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,726
    SandyRentool said:

    This morning I picked up a call on my wife’s mobile. It was a chap from the Green Party.

    When I opined that they have been taken over by the far left and are full of antisemites he said "Bollocks" and hung up.

    However, this does tell me that they have organised a GOTV operation, and must think they stand a chance in our ward. I doubt that they have, mind.

    Get your wife to Subject Access Request her notes from their system. Just for a giggle.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 39,816
    ozymandias said:

    BatteryCorrectHorse said:

    ozymandias said:

    londonpubman said:

    I think Keir will still be PM 2028

    Which is an excellent thing for us that want the Labour Party to be completely destroyed and erased from the British political landscape.
    We need a successful Labour government.
    Far from it. The British people are now being taught the lesson and have now learned, that the Labour Party is the enemy of all. Let it rot in peace.
    It does make me sigh when Tories carp on about the state of a country that has been run by them for 49 of the last 75 years.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 9,134
    edited May 7
    I’d also just sound a note of caution on turnout. Remember 2019 where we were hearing all sorts of anecdotes about huge queues in London which was then extrapolated to suggest a ginormous turnout amongst the young and another Corbyn surge.

    When the results came through it was Tory landslide with turnout down on the last GE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    I think I might do the morning thread on this betting market.

    US prediction market platform Polymarket has begun allowing people to bet on whether an outbreak of the “rat virus” on a cruise ship will escalate into a pandemic.

    Traders have so far wagered $693,000 (£509,000) on the “Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?” market, which is currently predicting a 10pc chance of a significant worldwide outbreak. Polymarket has promoted the market on its official X account.

    Users who bet on the “yes” outcome will win if the World Health Organisation explicitly characterises the hantavirus cases as a “pandemic” in an official public communication before the end of the year.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/05/07/polymarket-people-bet-hantavirus-pandemic-breaking-out/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,789
    ONE HOUR TO SAVE THE LABOUR PARTY!!!
  • partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 424
    numbertwelve said:

    I’d also just sound a note of caution on turnout. Remember 2019 where we were hearing all sorts of anecdotes about huge queues in London which was then extrapolated to suggest a ginormous turnout amongst the young and another Corbyn surge.

    When the results came through it was Tory landslide with turnout down on the last GE.

    Agreed but the turnout figures I quoted are real time from the polling clerks as I'm an election agent - the proviso is they are one single local authority.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580
    This is about to be the shortest thread in the history of PB.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,835
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is about to be the shortest thread in the history of PB.

    WTF has happened now?!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 17,376
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This is about to be the shortest thread in the history of PB.

    Red Eds private words?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,580

    NEW THREAD

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