I will say again that Trump needs to stop Iranian oil going to Iran's clients, for as long as they threaten the Straits of Hormuz. I agree with people that argue that Iran can afford to wait it out far longer than Trump can, but it is vital to at least appear to equalise the stakes. It appears not to just be me that thinks this:
Distant blockade of oil exports. Iran has continued shipping oil to China throughout the war, so the U.S. Navy should respond by diverting Iranian “shadow tankers” between the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, then impounding and selling their cargo as done in the past with tankers from Venezuela’s “shadow fleet.” These diversions should continue until Iran lifts its restrictions on traffic through Hormuz. Washington should also consider impounding Iranian “shadow fleet” tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil—though legal, logistical, and financial obstacles might complicate such efforts. Instead, the Trump administration recently approved a Treasury Department short-term general license permitting the temporary sale of Iranian oil currently at sea to keep the prices down, reflecting greater administration concerns about prices than about choking Iran’s revenues.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
It's the sort of thing that the US could get enmeshed in gradually.
They start with a limited operation to take Kharg island. Holding that is difficult because of drone and missile attacks from the coast. So then there's a push to conduct limited coastal raids to defend the island.
Similarly, you can conceive of a limited operation to take the coast by the Strait of Hormuz, which gradually expands over time.
And/or scenarios to secure the Iranian enriched uranium.
Planning an occupation of the whole country feels impossible, but one limited operation at a time, that fails to bring a resolution, and you might inch your way to it eventually. Just look at how the Vietnam War ramped up over time.
Trump will TACO out before there any significant US casualties, I suggest.
Perhaps. But I'd expected him to TACO already, and he hasn't, despite the unpopularity and the high gas prices.
So there has to be something that he is hanging on to achieve before he ends the war. Or he cannot end the war unilaterally.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
I did, upthread. I said the architects of the Turd Building must be relieved that they are no longer responsible for the ugliest architectural eyesore of the 21st century. Obama has rescued them
The jobbie building is still the most ridiculous and insulting, however. In one of the most handsome cities on earth, Edinburgh, they did that. They literally shat on the city. They should all go to jail
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
It's the sort of thing that the US could get enmeshed in gradually.
They start with a limited operation to take Kharg island. Holding that is difficult because of drone and missile attacks from the coast. So then there's a push to conduct limited coastal raids to defend the island.
Similarly, you can conceive of a limited operation to take the coast by the Strait of Hormuz, which gradually expands over time.
And/or scenarios to secure the Iranian enriched uranium.
Planning an occupation of the whole country feels impossible, but one limited operation at a time, that fails to bring a resolution, and you might inch your way to it eventually. Just look at how the Vietnam War ramped up over time.
Trump will TACO out before there any significant US casualties, I suggest.
Perhaps. But I'd expected him to TACO already, despite the unpopularity and the high gas prices.
So there has to be something that he is hanging on to achieve before he ends the war. Or he cannot end the war unilaterally.
He reverses his policy on Iran about four times in a row whenever he talks to the press, so it’s hard to know, but I note that Trump hasn’t ordered the US military to plan for a full-scale invasion and he keeps talking in the manner of someone who wants an off-ramp.
I did, upthread. I said the architects of the Turd Building must be relieved that they are no longer responsible for the ugliest architectural eyesore of the 21st century. Obama has rescued them
The jobbie building is still the most ridiculous and insulting, however. In one of the most handsome cities on earth, Edinburgh, they did that. They literally shat on the city. They should all go to jail
As I’ve suggested before all they need to do is remove the squiggle on top and immediately the newly-defecated thing disappears.
I will say again that Trump needs to stop Iranian oil going to Iran's clients, for as long as they threaten the Straits of Hormuz. I agree with people that argue that Iran can afford to wait it out far longer than Trump can, but it is vital to at least appear to equalise the stakes. It appears not to just be me that thinks this:
Distant blockade of oil exports. Iran has continued shipping oil to China throughout the war, so the U.S. Navy should respond by diverting Iranian “shadow tankers” between the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, then impounding and selling their cargo as done in the past with tankers from Venezuela’s “shadow fleet.” These diversions should continue until Iran lifts its restrictions on traffic through Hormuz. Washington should also consider impounding Iranian “shadow fleet” tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil—though legal, logistical, and financial obstacles might complicate such efforts. Instead, the Trump administration recently approved a Treasury Department short-term general license permitting the temporary sale of Iranian oil currently at sea to keep the prices down, reflecting greater administration concerns about prices than about choking Iran’s revenues.
I like to keep an eye on the local by-elections and as others may have stated last night was notable.
The Cons won 3 of 4 - their best night in a long time. Now they were strong favorites for all three - including the LD-held one - and not winning any should have set alarm bells ringing. None the less the Cons won all three and really quite comfortably. Another little sign the Con decline seems to have bottomed out. They will still lose Councillors in 2026 but perhaps not as brutally as in 2025.
Lab ran a VERY strong candidate in a traditionally rock-solid Scunthorpe ward and were crushed by Reform. That tells me that the wave that is approaching defending Lab Councillors in May will probably be a tsunami comparable to 2025. Reform will not necessarily be the beneficiaries everywhere, probably will not be, but if anyone doubted Lab's performance in May will be disastrous then this single result should be enough to convince them.
I think that it will be a bad night for the Conservatives, but in the shire areas and outer London not a complete meltdown. Labour on the other hand will be a meltdown of apocalyptic proportions.
Badenoch will survive the outcome, but Starmer is unlikely to.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
1. He yields to Iran. He calls a peace, and tries to pretend it's what he always wanted. But he's now so invested in this nightmare (a bit like Putin in Ukraine) it's very hard for him to withdraw. It will absolutely look like defeat and surrender. That's not how the Donald Behaves. He WINS, BIGLY
2. So what does winning bigly look like, how does he get the Straits open? There's no way he can invade and conquer Iran, it's all mountains, there's 90 million people, it's much bigger and tougher than Vietnam, and look how Vietnam turned out. Look how Iraq turned out
Tactically, I think he only has one option, limited ground operations to seize those crucial islands and maybe the Iranian coast near the Straits (dangerous but do-able?) - plus intense bombing of Iran, pulverising it into submission at the same time. Ergo, quite possibly nukes
I think this merits a...
BRACE
That's a pretty dicey option. It would almost guarantee Iran attempting to destroy the Qatar gas production facilities - which are a highly vulnerable target. Nukes would make that more, not less likely.
They'd have a fair chance of succeeding in that attempt.
That result would be the worst of all possible worlds.
"Pulverising into submission" is a great example of question begging.
Fair enough, but then how else does this impasse end? I'd quite like a cheerier alternative, if you have one
Most of them involve the 25th being invoked.
I'm not confident that Trump's ego will allow him to back down here.
He's quite clearly trying for a face saving deal, but the mad mullahs (despite also seeming as though they would be amenable to a deal) appear equally determined not to allow him to save face.
The only reason I doubt the nuke option is that he will also have been told about the likelihood of retaliation.
And then there's the Netanyahu joker.
That's all my best guess (FWIW). For now I don't have many cheerful alternatives.
I will say again that Trump needs to stop Iranian oil going to Iran's clients, for as long as they threaten the Straits of Hormuz. I agree with people that argue that Iran can afford to wait it out far longer than Trump can, but it is vital to at least appear to equalise the stakes. It appears not to just be me that thinks this:
Distant blockade of oil exports. Iran has continued shipping oil to China throughout the war, so the U.S. Navy should respond by diverting Iranian “shadow tankers” between the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, then impounding and selling their cargo as done in the past with tankers from Venezuela’s “shadow fleet.” These diversions should continue until Iran lifts its restrictions on traffic through Hormuz. Washington should also consider impounding Iranian “shadow fleet” tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil—though legal, logistical, and financial obstacles might complicate such efforts. Instead, the Trump administration recently approved a Treasury Department short-term general license permitting the temporary sale of Iranian oil currently at sea to keep the prices down, reflecting greater administration concerns about prices than about choking Iran’s revenues.
I listened to a podcast recently that was recorded in January, and they suggested that the operation against Venezuela was part of a strategy to control Chinese access to oil, and that therefore action against Iran was plausible.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
Agree with all of those points but the alternative is that Iran gets nukes within the next year or so which means even the most unpalatable options are on the table.
Slight problem there - all the evidence was that until Israel decided to bomb Iran, Iran were looking at giving the uranium away in return for access to the world markets..
Where is this "evidence"?
Iran were executing their own people and enriching uranium, not acting reasonably and giving it away.
The independent IAEA said that Iran were not co-operating. Rather refutes your claim and is evidence to the contrary.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
Agree with all of those points but the alternative is that Iran gets nukes within the next year or so which means even the most unpalatable options are on the table.
The more unpalatable options are on the table, the more there is an incentive to develop nuclear weapons.
And here's the thing: there are 90 million Iranians/Persians. If Israel and Saudi Arabia have the bomb, how are you plannning on -long-term- stopping them from having it too?
I mean you can -at enormous cost- go in and knock down the government every couple of years. But each time you do it, you increase the incentive for the next government to get the bomb.
A failed state doesn't have an effective government, certainly not one that can marshal the resources required to build a nuclear bomb. That seems to be the nihilistic Israeli strategy.
I wondered how long it would be before a comment like this surfaced.
Credit where it's due, a very good result in the Stanford-le-Vale Ward of Vale of the White Horse. This was a seat the LDs won by 10 votes in the 2023 round but had been Conservative (and strongly so) in 2019 and 2015 so some degree of reversion and it puts the Conservatives back on a council from which they were cleared out in 2023 but to move only 2.5% forward in what was once a solid Conservative Ward perhaps not as good as it appears.
Likewise, the two held seats aren't perhaps significant cause for celebration - these saw significant vote share falls from 2023 which was a disastrous round for the Conservatives with over 1000 losses and an NEV of 26%. These two Wards in that election still had Conservative shares of 65% and 69% respectively even in a year when the Conservatives were dropping seats nationally by the bucket load.
Even now, in the second year of what many consider a catastrophically bad Labour Government, what happens? Improvement in vote share, a steady share - no, the Conservatives lose in share terms about 30% of what they had in 2023 which would translate nationally to a vote share of about 18% (close to current Westminster VI polls).
I'm still of the view the Conservatives are in for a difficult round of elections in May - I've argued 500 losses nationally. These results don't convince me otherwise.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
Agree with all of those points but the alternative is that Iran gets nukes within the next year or so which means even the most unpalatable options are on the table.
But what’s the evidence that a nuclear armed Iran would be the first country since 1945 to arbitrarily nuke another neighbouring country rather than like every other nation with nukes see them as a guarantee of their own security? Yes, they’re deranged by religion like almost all of their neighbours, but the US/Israel SMO suggests they’re at least as smart and rational actors as eg Bibi, and way more so than Trump.
The Iranian regime constantly talks - openly - about its intent to destroy the state of Israel. They repeat this time and again:
1) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2005 At a Tehran conference, Ahmadinejad made the statement widely reported in English as saying Israel should be “wiped off the map.” The Guardian reported it at the time in those terms
2) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2015 to 2016 On Khamenei’s official English-language site, he is quoted saying: “nothing called the ‘Zionist regime’ will exist by 25 years from now.”
3) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, October 2023 Khamenei’s official site quoted him saying the “cancer” of the “Zionist regime” “will surely be eradicated.”
There are many others, from many other officials
Now you may think this is bluster, but I suggest if you were a Jew living in Israel you could not shrug it off, not in the light of Hitler promising to the end the Jewish problem then, when he got the power, striving to do exactly that, by killing all the Jews he could find, In their millions
Israel's unique history means they have to take threats of genocide very seriously. So they cannot risk Iran getting a nuke, because Iran might very well do what Iranian leaders say they will do. Wipe Israel off the map
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
1. He yields to Iran. He calls a peace, and tries to pretend it's what he always wanted. But he's now so invested in this nightmare (a bit like Putin in Ukraine) it's very hard for him to withdraw. It will absolutely look like defeat and surrender. That's not how the Donald Behaves. He WINS, BIGLY
2. So what does winning bigly look like, how does he get the Straits open? There's no way he can invade and conquer Iran, it's all mountains, there's 90 million people, it's much bigger and tougher than Vietnam, and look how Vietnam turned out. Look how Iraq turned out
Tactically, I think he only has one option, limited ground operations to seize those crucial islands and maybe the Iranian coast near the Straits (dangerous but do-able?) - plus intense bombing of Iran, pulverising it into submission at the same time. Ergo, quite possibly nukes
I think this merits a...
BRACE
That's a pretty dicey option. It would almost guarantee Iran attempting to destroy the Qatar gas production facilities - which are a highly vulnerable target. Nukes would make that more, not less likely.
They'd have a fair chance of succeeding in that attempt.
That result would be the worst of all possible worlds.
"Pulverising into submission" is a great example of question begging.
Fair enough, but then how else does this impasse end? I'd quite like a cheerier alternative, if you have one
Most of them involve the 25th being invoked.
I'm not confident that Trump's ego will allow him to back down here.
He's quite clearly trying for a face saving deal, but the mad mullahs (despite also seeming as though they would be amenable to a deal) appear equally determined not to allow him to save face.
The only reason I doubt the nuke option is that he will also have been told about the likelihood of retaliation.
And then there's the Netanyahu joker.
That's all my best guess (FWIW). For now I don't have many cheerful alternatives.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
It's the sort of thing that the US could get enmeshed in gradually.
They start with a limited operation to take Kharg island. Holding that is difficult because of drone and missile attacks from the coast. So then there's a push to conduct limited coastal raids to defend the island.
Similarly, you can conceive of a limited operation to take the coast by the Strait of Hormuz, which gradually expands over time.
And/or scenarios to secure the Iranian enriched uranium.
Planning an occupation of the whole country feels impossible, but one limited operation at a time, that fails to bring a resolution, and you might inch your way to it eventually. Just look at how the Vietnam War ramped up over time.
Trump will TACO out before there any significant US casualties, I suggest.
Perhaps. But I'd expected him to TACO already, despite the unpopularity and the high gas prices.
So there has to be something that he is hanging on to achieve before he ends the war. Or he cannot end the war unilaterally.
He reverses his policy on Iran about four times in a row whenever he talks to the press, so it’s hard to know, but I note that Trump hasn’t ordered the US military to plan for a full-scale invasion and he keeps talking in the manner of someone who wants an off-ramp.
Trump does sound like someone who would be happy for the war to be over, and yet, the war isn't over.
If the Iranians continue the war - say in an attempt to force the US to close its bases in the Middle East - then is Trump willing to take that off ramp?
Sometimes with wars we see that each sides position hardens, initial losses, defeats and embarrassments lead to an increase in demands for concessions from the other side in order to justify those losses. The article linked to the other day identified this sort of dynamic as a trap that could prolong this war.
With Trump it's very hard to know what his motivation is, and so what he might regard as an acceptable level of humiliation in order to end the war, but I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic.
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
That won't help either because the current outcome is Iran accelerating their nuclear weapons programme and then we have a bunch of radical Islamists with nukes.
I fear that a ground invasion is going to be the only way out.
There's nowhere they could invade from overland and they don't have the ships for an invasion from the Gulf.
And holding the country after they conquer it would require millions of soldiers.
And there's no political support whatsoever.
Apart from that, I agree, it's inevitable.
Agree with all of those points but the alternative is that Iran gets nukes within the next year or so which means even the most unpalatable options are on the table.
But what’s the evidence that a nuclear armed Iran would be the first country since 1945 to arbitrarily nuke another neighbouring country rather than like every other nation with nukes see them as a guarantee of their own security? Yes, they’re deranged by religion like almost all of their neighbours, but the US/Israel SMO suggests they’re at least as smart and rational actors as eg Bibi, and way more so than Trump.
The Iranian regime constantly talks - openly - about its intent to destroy the state of Israel. They repeat this time and again:
1) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2005 At a Tehran conference, Ahmadinejad made the statement widely reported in English as saying Israel should be “wiped off the map.” The Guardian reported it at the time in those terms
2) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2015 to 2016 On Khamenei’s official English-language site, he is quoted saying: “nothing called the ‘Zionist regime’ will exist by 25 years from now.”
3) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, October 2023 Khamenei’s official site quoted him saying the “cancer” of the “Zionist regime” “will surely be eradicated.”
There are many others, from many other officials
Now you may think this is bluster, but I suggest if you were a Jew living in Israel you could not shrug it off, not in the light of Hitler promising to the end the Jewish problem then, when he got the power, striving to do exactly that, by killing all the Jews he could find, In their millions
Israel's unique history means they have to take threats of genocide very seriously. So they cannot risk Iran getting a nuke, because Iran might very well do what Iranian leaders say they will do. Wipe Israel off the map
I’m sure we all applaud Israel’s achievements in ensuring their secure and stable existence, and spreading harmony wherever they go. However why is the generally accepted principle of nuclear deterrence suddenly out the window because Middle East?
I wondered how long it would be before a comment like this surfaced.
Credit where it's due, a very good result in the Stanford-le-Vale Ward of Vale of the White Horse. This was a seat the LDs won by 10 votes in the 2023 round but had been Conservative (and strongly so) in 2019 and 2015 so some degree of reversion and it puts the Conservatives back on a council from which they were cleared out in 2023 but to move only 2.5% forward in what was once a solid Conservative Ward perhaps not as good as it appears.
Likewise, the two held seats aren't perhaps significant cause for celebration - these saw significant vote share falls from 2023 which was a disastrous round for the Conservatives with over 1000 losses and an NEV of 26%. These two Wards in that election still had Conservative shares of 65% and 69% respectively even in a year when the Conservatives were dropping seats nationally by the bucket load.
Even now, in the second year of what many consider a catastrophically bad Labour Government, what happens? Improvement in vote share, a steady share - no, the Conservatives lose in share terms about 30% of what they had in 2023 which would translate nationally to a vote share of about 18% (close to current Westminster VI polls).
I'm still of the view the Conservatives are in for a difficult round of elections in May - I've argued 500 losses nationally. These results don't convince me otherwise.
The main point is it shows more Tories can hold on than expected with anti Reform tactical votes
I don't want to depress people but I've got a baaaaaaad feeling in my Leondamus waters about this whole Iran thingy
Trump HAS to get the Straits of Hormuz open ASAP or the world will lurch into an enormous crisis, and he will get the blame. He won't be able to waltz away if millions are starving and Australia returns to the Bronze Age, even as Americans are paying $5000 a gallon during the Midterms
So, what does he do? As I see it, he has two choices, both unpalatable
There is a third way out
Trump 'retires due to ill health'
I think that Vance and The Munchkins perhaps have a greater loyalty to themselves than they do to Trump, and we could see the 25th Amendment used.
I will say again that Trump needs to stop Iranian oil going to Iran's clients, for as long as they threaten the Straits of Hormuz. I agree with people that argue that Iran can afford to wait it out far longer than Trump can, but it is vital to at least appear to equalise the stakes. It appears not to just be me that thinks this:
Distant blockade of oil exports. Iran has continued shipping oil to China throughout the war, so the U.S. Navy should respond by diverting Iranian “shadow tankers” between the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, then impounding and selling their cargo as done in the past with tankers from Venezuela’s “shadow fleet.” These diversions should continue until Iran lifts its restrictions on traffic through Hormuz. Washington should also consider impounding Iranian “shadow fleet” tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil—though legal, logistical, and financial obstacles might complicate such efforts. Instead, the Trump administration recently approved a Treasury Department short-term general license permitting the temporary sale of Iranian oil currently at sea to keep the prices down, reflecting greater administration concerns about prices than about choking Iran’s revenues.
I will say again that Trump needs to stop Iranian oil going to Iran's clients, for as long as they threaten the Straits of Hormuz. I agree with people that argue that Iran can afford to wait it out far longer than Trump can, but it is vital to at least appear to equalise the stakes. It appears not to just be me that thinks this:
Distant blockade of oil exports. Iran has continued shipping oil to China throughout the war, so the U.S. Navy should respond by diverting Iranian “shadow tankers” between the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca, then impounding and selling their cargo as done in the past with tankers from Venezuela’s “shadow fleet.” These diversions should continue until Iran lifts its restrictions on traffic through Hormuz. Washington should also consider impounding Iranian “shadow fleet” tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil—though legal, logistical, and financial obstacles might complicate such efforts. Instead, the Trump administration recently approved a Treasury Department short-term general license permitting the temporary sale of Iranian oil currently at sea to keep the prices down, reflecting greater administration concerns about prices than about choking Iran’s revenues.
Comments
REVEALED: The man who makes Malcom Tucker’s onion bhaji go away doesn’t like onion bhajis
https://x.com/MattChorley/status/2037513758516334638?s=20
So there has to be something that he is hanging on to achieve before he ends the war. Or he cannot end the war unilaterally.
If Chinese vessels (or vessels on their way to China) are going to get stopped and impounded, then they too will cease transiting the Straits.
That means world oil supply will fall another 3 to 5 million barrels per day, and prices will lurch up further.
Badenoch will survive the outcome, but Starmer is unlikely to.
I'm not confident that Trump's ego will allow him to back down here.
He's quite clearly trying for a face saving deal, but the mad mullahs (despite also seeming as though they would be amenable to a deal) appear equally determined not to allow him to save face.
The only reason I doubt the nuke option is that he will also have been told about the likelihood of retaliation.
And then there's the Netanyahu joker.
That's all my best guess (FWIW).
For now I don't have many cheerful alternatives.
Iran were executing their own people and enriching uranium, not acting reasonably and giving it away.
The independent IAEA said that Iran were not co-operating. Rather refutes your claim and is evidence to the contrary.
Credit where it's due, a very good result in the Stanford-le-Vale Ward of Vale of the White Horse. This was a seat the LDs won by 10 votes in the 2023 round but had been Conservative (and strongly so) in 2019 and 2015 so some degree of reversion and it puts the Conservatives back on a council from which they were cleared out in 2023 but to move only 2.5% forward in what was once a solid Conservative Ward perhaps not as good as it appears.
Likewise, the two held seats aren't perhaps significant cause for celebration - these saw significant vote share falls from 2023 which was a disastrous round for the Conservatives with over 1000 losses and an NEV of 26%. These two Wards in that election still had Conservative shares of 65% and 69% respectively even in a year when the Conservatives were dropping seats nationally by the bucket load.
Even now, in the second year of what many consider a catastrophically bad Labour Government, what happens? Improvement in vote share, a steady share - no, the Conservatives lose in share terms about 30% of what they had in 2023 which would translate nationally to a vote share of about 18% (close to current Westminster VI polls).
I'm still of the view the Conservatives are in for a difficult round of elections in May - I've argued 500 losses nationally. These results don't convince me otherwise.
1) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2005
At a Tehran conference, Ahmadinejad made the statement widely reported in English as saying Israel should be “wiped off the map.” The Guardian reported it at the time in those terms
2) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2015 to 2016
On Khamenei’s official English-language site, he is quoted saying: “nothing called the ‘Zionist regime’ will exist by 25 years from now.”
3) Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, October 2023
Khamenei’s official site quoted him saying the “cancer” of the “Zionist regime” “will surely be eradicated.”
There are many others, from many other officials
Now you may think this is bluster, but I suggest if you were a Jew living in Israel you could not shrug it off, not in the light of Hitler promising to the end the Jewish problem then, when he got the power, striving to do exactly that, by killing all the Jews he could find, In their millions
Israel's unique history means they have to take threats of genocide very seriously. So they cannot risk Iran getting a nuke, because Iran might very well do what Iranian leaders say they will do. Wipe Israel off the map
NEEW THREAD
If the Iranians continue the war - say in an attempt to force the US to close its bases in the Middle East - then is Trump willing to take that off ramp?
Sometimes with wars we see that each sides position hardens, initial losses, defeats and embarrassments lead to an increase in demands for concessions from the other side in order to justify those losses. The article linked to the other day identified this sort of dynamic as a trap that could prolong this war.
With Trump it's very hard to know what his motivation is, and so what he might regard as an acceptable level of humiliation in order to end the war, but I'm becoming increasingly pessimistic.