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This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,008
edited March 17 in General
This feels sub-optimal for Nigel Farage – politicalbetting.com

exclusive: Nigel Farage has recorded Cameo videos in which he endorsed a neo-Nazi event, repeated extremist slogans and supported a man convicted over his involvement in a far-right riot.w/ @michaelgoodier.bsky.social

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 280
    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 280
    Nigel's star is on the wane.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,315
    Sweeney74 said:

    Nigel's star is on the wane.

    Not fast enough sadly !
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 280
    nico67 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Nigel's star is on the wane.

    Not fast enough sadly !
    A slow burn will be much more enjoyable though
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283
    I always assumed that the reason Farage did Cameo videos saying things like "Up the RA" was strategic because it reduces the shock value when he says something controversial himself.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676
    Are we the bad guys Suella?
  • nico67 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Nigel's star is on the wane.

    Not fast enough sadly !
    So long as it wanes sufficiently by the time the public votes next!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 280

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,710

    I always assumed that the reason Farage did Cameo videos saying things like "Up the RA" was strategic because it reduces the shock value when he says something controversial himself.

    Or he thinks his audience and the voting public are too stupid to notice. He may be right about some.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,335

    I always assumed that the reason Farage did Cameo videos saying things like "Up the RA" was strategic because it reduces the shock value when he says something controversial himself.

    He does it for money. There is nothing more to it than that. He's made nearly 400 grand tossing off those videos according the Guardian article.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,669
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
    Worrying that you know that. Are you actually @SeanT and don’t know it?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 280

    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
    Worrying that you know that. Are you actually @SeanT and don’t know it?
    saying "I imagine that they resemble" really doesn't make it any better, does it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676
    edited March 17
    Nigel will start to drive away the Patriotic and upstanding Granny and Grandads vote with his grimy grift and grottiness and whats left will be the 'didnt actually vote' angry gang
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,669
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
    Worrying that you know that. Are you actually @SeanT and don’t know it?
    saying "I imagine that they resemble" really doesn't make it any better, does it?
    Frankly, no
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676
    edited March 17
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
    Its an art installation - 'Grift and Sneeze'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,877
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,379
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
    Lol
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676

    nico67 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Nigel's star is on the wane.

    Not fast enough sadly !
    So long as it wanes sufficiently by the time the public votes next!
    The May 7 cut off for defections is because it wont look such an attractive option on the 8th.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,335
    Sweeney74 said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    the top 3 pics are like a tortoise's sex face...
    He looks like he has somebody else's false teeth in.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,966

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    Maybe the videos were 'found' on some AI site.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,487
    And this gamey character wants to be PM. Can't see it myself. I think we're better than that. We might not rule the waves anymore but we are better than that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,229

    Are we the bad guys Suella?

    "Yes."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,959

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    How to win friends and influence people.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,487

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You still have to pinch yourself, don't you. But, yes, it's real. This is the US president.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,229

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    "Because of the fact that they all said NO... >ringtone< ... Oh FFS. You C+++..."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,903

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You know how bad Trump is now that even Kemi Badenoch is defending Starmer from the mango Mussolini, she's seen the polling.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,959
    Battlebus said:

    I always assumed that the reason Farage did Cameo videos saying things like "Up the RA" was strategic because it reduces the shock value when he says something controversial himself.

    Or he thinks his audience and the voting public are too stupid to notice. He may be right about some.
    About 28% or so perchance?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,229
    edited March 17

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You know how bad Trump is now that even Kemi Badenoch is defending Starmer from the mango Mussolini, she's seen the polling.
    Is that called a screeching U-turn ?

    She's apparently learning from Starmer, God help us.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,903

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    Would you prefer a different photo of Farage, I know there's one photo of Farage PB loves.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,710
    edited March 17

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    His handlers have given him the task of getting the US Allies to burden share. It could happen with diplomacy and some backroom arm-twisting but Trump's method is uniquely his.

    His handlers must be shaking their heads and will likely be interviewing others to continue Project 2025

    Edit: The Susie Wiles news was odd. They seem to be holding her captive despite her need for cancer treatment.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,379
    edited March 17
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You know how bad Trump is now that even Kemi Badenoch is defending Starmer from the mango Mussolini, she's seen the polling.
    Is that called a screeching U-turn ?

    She's apparently learning from Starmer, God help us.
    I didn't think her voice was screechy?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You know how bad Trump is now that even Kemi Badenoch is defending Starmer from the mango Mussolini, she's seen the polling.
    Is that called a screeching U-turn ?

    She's apparently learning from Starmer, God help us.
    Not really a u turn.
    Highly opportunistic though
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,084
    I think the BBC must be made to report on this and a series of calls for the resignation of Farage as his party's leader is in order.

    It deserves a hoo-har, let's make it one.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033
    More client journalism here.

    This is not news. He recorded one saying ‘up the Ra’, so he did.

    He’s a grifter and a money grabber. He’s hardly endorsing these.

    I hope he paid his taxes !

    I also see Gregg (don’t call him Greg) Wallace is doing these now. Got to make some cash now his career has gone astray.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,229
    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,499
    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA
  • glwglw Posts: 10,829

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    He certainly wanted help yesterday. So it's been help me, we don't need you, help me, we don't need you, will it be back to help me by Friday? Probably, assuming he doesn't go really nuts and nuke Tehran.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,877
    @annmarie

    Senator Graham on Trump— “I have never heard him so angry in my life.”

    https://x.com/annmarie/status/2033931206635503924?s=20
  • https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    Do you think he realises that NATO has bugger all to do with Iran?

    NATO is a defensive alliance, and only applies within the geographical confines it is limited to ie Europe and North America.

    It does not include offensive actions, or actions beyond its geographic limits, which means Iran is beyond its remit.

    Which was a choice of America, ironically, since America did not want to be called to assist Britain in defending its Empire.

    So the UK could not demand America's assistance when the Falklands was invaded, and the USA has absolutely no right to demand NATO assistance in Iran.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,499
    edited March 17
    On topic, grifters gonna grift.

    Guardian are a bit opaque about how they got this info. They claim publicly available in the source code of the website...that gave them access to not just prompts but videos including outtakes? hmmm. Who did their website, same peoppe who did companies house.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 16,676
    edited March 17
    Coming up on BBC1

    Nigel Farages People say the most inappropriate things for money, followed by
    Bob Jenricks Big Energy Bill Gameshow
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,912

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    What about the PIRA?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 87,229
    Your dad is found dead in 2014 after working on Deutsche Bank's Trump/Russia accounts. A journalist promises to get his colleagues to stop emailing your little sisters if you meet with him. Later he'll write a NYT op-ed about how you crave notoriety. You'll be found dead in 2022
    https://x.com/ProjPM/status/2033733624248390046

    Trump has the article mocking you on the top of one of his boxes of documents in his bathroom at Mar-a-Lago when the FBI raids him.
    https://x.com/ProjPM/status/2033734687084920953
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,499

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    What about the PIRA?
    Nothing ever crossed me desk, i was neither present nor involved.
  • Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    What Powell thought is moot, since Starmer chose not to get involved in operations. If you don't get involved, your judgment is irrelevant.

    All that matters is if America and Israel were satisfied with the Iranian offer. They clearly weren't.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,573
    A problem on the populist right then. If this man isn't insane then no one is....I've seen him ramble before but this is the rambling of a not too bright twelve year old

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHzZRoOnUXU
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,022
    Scott_xP said:

    @annmarie

    Senator Graham on Trump— “I have never heard him so angry in my life.”

    https://x.com/annmarie/status/2033931206635503924?s=20

    Trump's anger gladdens my heart.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283
    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,966

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    He's just said that? I wonder why he felt a need to say it now.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,022

    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    Ooh diddums.
    Your war, not ours.
    Fuck off.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283

    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    Ooh diddums.
    Your war, not ours.
    Fuck off.
    If this causes a rupture between Europe and the US it will be the ultimate vindiation of Blair's strategy of opposing Chirac and Schröder's attempts to turn Europe into an anti-American bloc aligned with Russia.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,878
    edited March 17

    Coming up on BBC1

    Nigel Farages People say the most inappropriate things for money, followed by
    Bob Jenricks Big Energy Bill Gameshow

    I botched this on the last thread, but surely the outtakes belong on "It'll Be Alt-right On The Night".

    (Denis Norden voice:)

    If you’re one of those people who blame immigrants and woke for everything...
  • https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    They don't have any alliance that applies to Iran.🤦‍♂️

    I say that too, not as a critic of the war. Indeed as one of the lone supporters of war with Iran and as someone who thinks that British forces should be used, in a ground invasion if required.

    However I would support that because I think its the right thing to do, not out of respect for Trump (which is non-existent) and not due to any alliance obligations (which are also non-existent).

    If Iran attacked America, on its soil, then we would be obliged under NATO to respond. They have not. We are under no obligations. Fighting in Hormuz is not covered by the NATO Treaty, thanks to choices America made when the Treaty was signed.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,040
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You still have to pinch yourself, don't you. But, yes, it's real. This is the US president.
    I thought that was a parody account at first reading.

    Of course not. Silly me!
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,040

    Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    What Powell thought is moot, since Starmer chose not to get involved in operations. If you don't get involved, your judgment is irrelevant.

    All that matters is if America and Israel were satisfied with the Iranian offer. They clearly weren't.
    What Powell thought might be relevant though, in that it may have influenced our decision not to get involved.
  • TazTaz Posts: 26,033
    AnneJGP said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    He's just said that? I wonder why he felt a need to say it now.
    Because he’s being sued for a nominal sum by victims of the IRA/Provos.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,389

    I always assumed that the reason Farage did Cameo videos saying things like "Up the RA" was strategic because it reduces the shock value when he says something controversial himself.

    Cameo is OnlyFans for ugly people.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,282
    kinabalu said:

    And this gamey character wants to be PM. Can't see it myself. I think we're better than that. We might not rule the waves anymore but we are better than that.

    He doesn't though, does he. It would be a personal disaster to be elected PM. He'd actually have to do the job. His thing has always been the outsider shouting at the system. Someone said he was happy after Brexit - I'm not so sure. On the night of the vote he was steeled to fight on after losing. That's the game he wants.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    AnneJGP said:

    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    Given that POTUS has spent the last year & more repudiating every agreement with those allies, I suppose they have to invent some story to comfort themselves that they're the poor betrayed trusting ones after all.
    He's angry because he's going to have to clean up his own mess on his own.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You still have to pinch yourself, don't you. But, yes, it's real. This is the US president.
    I thought that was a parody account at first reading.

    Of course not. Silly me!
    How does this tweet fit with Lindsay Graham's?

  • Cookie said:

    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    They don't have any alliance that applies to Iran.🤦‍♂️

    I say that too, not as a critic of the war. Indeed as one of the lone supporters of war with Iran and as someone who thinks that British forces should be used, in a ground invasion if required.

    However I would support that because I think its the right thing to do, not out of respect for Trump (which is non-existent) and not due to any alliance obligations (which are also non-existent).

    If Iran attacked America, on its soil, then we would be obliged under NATO to respond. They have not. We are under no obligations. Fighting in Hormuz is not covered by the NATO Treaty, thanks to choices America made when the Treaty was signed.
    Whatever one thinks about the war in Iran - any of the previous ten presidents could have probably got European support of some sort for this adventure. But Trump has gone out of his way to antagonise the USA's allies, either by publicly belittling their past contributions, talking down the alliance itself, trash talking indivudual leaders, siding with the alliance's opponent, or actually threatening to invade allies. Oh, and tariffs, of course.
    Normal presidents don't do that sort of thing.
    Completely agreed.

    I think it is a disgrace we are not helping liberate Iran from the Mullahs and we should be doing so.

    But I think it is good to see Trump hoist on his own petard.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 61,669
    AnneJGP said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    He's just said that? I wonder why he felt a need to say it now.
    He’s being sued for £1 by the relatives of PIRA victims.

    The Shinners are trying to make out that this is An Attack On The Peace Process.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 18,022

    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    Ooh diddums.
    Your war, not ours.
    Fuck off.
    If this causes a rupture between Europe and the US it will be the ultimate vindiation of Blair's strategy of opposing Chirac and Schröder's attempts to turn Europe into an anti-American bloc aligned with Russia.
    If this causes a rupture with the US so be it. The country is being run by a cabal of lunatics and crooks. The less we have to do with them right now the better.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 1,040

    PJH said:

    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You still have to pinch yourself, don't you. But, yes, it's real. This is the US president.
    I thought that was a parody account at first reading.

    Of course not. Silly me!
    How does this tweet fit with Lindsay Graham's?

    Seems to describe a toddler tantrum quite well.

    You have to ask yourself what did Trump expect? But I don't suppose he gave it a moment's thought.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706
    kinabalu said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You still have to pinch yourself, don't you. But, yes, it's real. This is the US president.
    Are you SURE it isn't Viz's Spoilt Bastard?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,379

    Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    What Powell thought is moot, since Starmer chose not to get involved in operations. If you don't get involved, your judgment is irrelevant.

    All that matters is if America and Israel were satisfied with the Iranian offer. They clearly weren't.
    I think Israel bounced the US into the war. They saw a chance to take out the Iranian top ranks, even though talks were happening. Can I coin a phrase "perfidious Zion"?
  • Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    What Powell thought is moot, since Starmer chose not to get involved in operations. If you don't get involved, your judgment is irrelevant.

    All that matters is if America and Israel were satisfied with the Iranian offer. They clearly weren't.
    I think Israel bounced the US into the war. They saw a chance to take out the Iranian top ranks, even though talks were happening. Can I coin a phrase "perfidious Zion"?
    Quite clever of them if so.

    What Powell considers progress, likely was not considered sufficient progress by Netanyahu.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 7,315
    Trump will now trash NATO and try and turn Americans against the alliance .

    Even though it’s nothing to do with that . This really is a dark time and Europe needs to wake up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You know how bad Trump is now that even Kemi Badenoch is defending Starmer from the mango Mussolini, she's seen the polling.
    You know how fucked Trump is for sure.
  • Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    Bloody stupid of the Americans to allow Iranian oil through. Any Iranian tankers should be seized or sank.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283

    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706
    On topic, time for Farage to just fuck off to America where he can graft the shit out of the last couple of years of MAGA.

    Go on Nigel, you know you want to.

    Leave the shitshow with Tice and HMRC.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 5,379

    Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    What Powell thought is moot, since Starmer chose not to get involved in operations. If you don't get involved, your judgment is irrelevant.

    All that matters is if America and Israel were satisfied with the Iranian offer. They clearly weren't.
    I think Israel bounced the US into the war. They saw a chance to take out the Iranian top ranks, even though talks were happening. Can I coin a phrase "perfidious Zion"?
    Quite clever of them if so.

    What Powell considers progress, likely was not considered sufficient progress by Netanyahu.
    Untrustworthy at least. I'd be more worried about Israel's nuclear weapons than a very small possibility of Iran having one.
  • Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
    Not really.

    The issue is that America is OK with the oil getting through as if it doesn't that will make the oil price worse.

    Which is f***ing stupid. Take the hit on the oil price, and shut the damn thing properly, hurting Iran and putting pressure on them . . . or call off the whole war if you're going to be incompetent about it.

    To be going to war but letting Iran still trade is the worst of all worlds. Morons.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730
    On the Joseph Kent (Counter-terrorism bod) resignation:

    Paul Mason
    @paulmasonnews
    ·
    8m
    4/ though Kent's resignation has been slammed by Trump loyalists, the statement will have legal import for every Western democracy with a functioning attorney general system - the first insider testimony (not evidence) that there was no imminent threat.

    https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2033939592340963743
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 22,282

    AnneJGP said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    He's just said that? I wonder why he felt a need to say it now.
    He’s being sued for £1 by the relatives of PIRA victims.

    The Shinners are trying to make out that this is An Attack On The Peace Process.
    Its a weird one. At this point does it matter? Would he open himself up to legal problems if (a) he HAD been part of the PIRA and (b) admitted it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706

    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
    This will be the China getting its oil through. The China that Trump wants to join him in keeping open the Straits of Hormuz.

    Xi: "why the fuck would I want to do that?"

    Trump: "Because...erm...I just mined the Straits...?"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 70,730

    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
    This will be the China getting its oil through. The China that Trump wants to join him in keeping open the Straits of Hormuz.

    Xi: "why the fuck would I want to do that?"

    Trump: "Because...erm...I just mined the Straits...?"
    They meet on 31st March iirc
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283

    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
    This will be the China getting its oil through. The China that Trump wants to join him in keeping open the Straits of Hormuz.

    Xi: "why the fuck would I want to do that?"

    Trump: "Because...erm...I just mined the Straits...?"
    They meet on 31st March iirc
    It's been postponed due to the war.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706
    edited March 17

    Long but interesting thread from someone who wargamed a US war with Iran:

    Includes:

    3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus.


    Ilan Goldenberg
    @ilangoldenberg
    Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario.

    https://x.com/ilangoldenberg/status/2033566389978423382

    The US could blockade Iranian shipping, but that would risk putting them into a direct confrontation with China.
    This will be the China getting its oil through. The China that Trump wants to join him in keeping open the Straits of Hormuz.

    Xi: "why the fuck would I want to do that?"

    Trump: "Because...erm...I just mined the Straits...?"
    They meet on 31st March iirc
    It's been postponed due to the war.
    All going to ratshit for Trump.

    He has to stay home to manage the war he's, er....checks notes...already won.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 58,283
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033942264267841714

    Trump: "I originate -- to put it nicely -- I originate -- many of us do -- from Europe. I love Europe. I've spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad, bad things have happened to Europe. Very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and energy or you won't have a Europe"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,499
    I just imagine this with Cartman voice...

    Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE

    Screw you guys, i'm going home (complete with hand gesture).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,166
    How long must we wait until Donald Trump receives the care he needs?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706
    If it's true that Trump has had a series of mini strokes, there has to be a chance with the pressure he is under on every front, the next one is going to be rather more troubling. And difficult to hide.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,529

    AnneJGP said:

    Gerry Adams has said he never held any role or rank within the IRA

    He's just said that? I wonder why he felt a need to say it now.
    He’s being sued for £1 by the relatives of PIRA victims.

    The Shinners are trying to make out that this is An Attack On The Peace Process.

    Sweeney74 said:

    are we still talking about animals on banknotes?

    Walrus judging by that photo of Farage in the header.
    Would you prefer a different photo of Farage, I know there's one photo of Farage PB loves.
    How about a photoshop of that with the "tortoise sex face"?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 15,460
    edited March 17

    https://x.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/2033924181763481974

    Just spoke to @POTUS about our European allies’ unwillingness to provide assets to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning, which benefits Europe far more than America. I have never heard him so angry in my life. I share that anger given what’s at stake.

    The arrogance of our allies to suggest that Iran with a nuclear weapon is of little concern and that military action to stop the ayatollah from acquiring a nuclear bomb is our problem not theirs is beyond offensive. The European approach to containing the ayatollah’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be a miserable failure.

    The repercussions of providing little assistance to keep the Strait of Hormuz functioning are going to be wide and deep for Europe and America.

    I consider myself very forward-leaning on supporting alliances, however at a time of real testing like this, it makes me second guess the value of these alliances. I am certain I am not the only senator who feels this way.

    They don't have any alliance that applies to Iran.🤦‍♂️

    I say that too, not as a critic of the war. Indeed as one of the lone supporters of war with Iran and as someone who thinks that British forces should be used, in a ground invasion if required.

    However I would support that because I think its the right thing to do, not out of respect for Trump (which is non-existent) and not due to any alliance obligations (which are also non-existent).

    If Iran attacked America, on its soil, then we would be obliged under NATO to respond. They have not. We are under no obligations. Fighting in Hormuz is not covered by the NATO Treaty, thanks to choices America made when the Treaty was signed.
    “ If Iran attacked America, on its soil, then we would be obliged under NATO to respond. They have not. We are under no obligations.”

    That’s the most pathetic statement of the whole war.

    No one on PB can support you saying that.

    We have to wait till a nuke is used in a NATO country before we act. We can’t prevent a strike? We can’t act on intelligence of a threat?

    But the US has made clear to us they were under imminent threat of the Ayatollah’s Nuclear bomb, Iran was just days away from achieving. I’ve seen it mentioned by US government, California was just two weeks away from being ready made film set for season 3 of Fall Out.

    So you are wrong - if US and Israel intelligence felt California and Jerusalem were just days away from being radioactive waste, NATO has to respect that serious threat to the US - NATO member state - and Israel, doesn’t it?

    It’s beyond doubt, where there is a mess now, Israel and US blame the mess squarely on failure of others preventing Iran’s nuclear programme - deals that allowed Iran to keep racing towards the goal, negotiations going on forever allowing Iran to keep racing towards the goal. Iran were brazen about it. Do you want weapons of mass destruction? Yes. Are you busy working towards possessing them? Yes.

    So what gives you such knowledge to pontificate like you are doing? If it comes down to what Israeli and US Intelligence services knew, over what you knew - then you are going to lose aren’t you?

    And that is what it does comes down to. All other avenues exhausted for preventing Iran’s weapons of mass destruction. Intelligence about how close and real the threat was.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706
    Sean_F said:

    When you spend 14 months belittling, insulting, mocking, threatening, sanctioning, your allies, ridiculing their war dead, and aiding Russia, you should not really be surprised that those allies are reluctant to turn up in a war you began, without even consulting them,

    You should not really be surprised if these "allies" form a semi circle, drop their pants and moon you with their answer.

  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 1,511
    Nigelb said:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033926674178339173

    Trump: "Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer 'need,' or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

    You know how bad Trump is now that even Kemi Badenoch is defending Starmer from the mango Mussolini, she's seen the polling.
    Is that called a screeching U-turn ?

    She's apparently learning from Starmer, God help us.
    As long as she's Tory Party Leader all Labour have to show is a picture of her and Trump blood flooding down the screen,coffins coming off a Hercules type plane to the theme of Threads

    She made her decision

    WAR

    Lest we never forget.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,549
    Sean_F said:

    When you spend 14 months belittling, insulting, mocking, threatening, sanctioning, your allies, ridiculing their war dead, and aiding Russia, you should not really be surprised that those allies are reluctant to turn up in a war you began, without even consulting them,

    Anyone with even a modicum of self-awareness would realise that. The problem being he doesn't even have an infinitesimal fraction of a modicum.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 90,499
    (Reeves) She said that quantum computing is to create 100,000 UK job.

    Nobody has even showed any working pratical application for this technology. US companies who have been at this for years have basically zero revenue from it, basically a few govenrment research contracts. And yet Reeves thinks 100k jobs in the UK alone are right around the corner.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,811
    Reform are currently about 7/4 or 9/5 for most seats in the next GE. This gives them about a 35/36% chance of being the largest party, so a 64/65% chance of not being the largest party.

    SFAICS if they are not the largest party the chance of leading a government is small, as in that case either the Tories are the largest party (which feels unlikely) or the Left of Centre get to 325+ seats and stop a Reform government.

    Even if they are the largest party they may not form a government, for the same Left of Centre alliance reason.

    Reform getting a majority is currently about 11/4, or a 73% chance it won't happen.

    Current odds give Farage about a 14% chance of being next PM. This, given the above + the probability of another PM during this government, is not value or anywhere close.

    Bet accordingly, DYOR.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 58,706

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033942264267841714

    Trump: "I originate -- to put it nicely -- I originate -- many of us do -- from Europe. I love Europe. I've spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad, bad things have happened to Europe. Very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and energy or you won't have a Europe"

    If the alternative is to listen to you Donald, we'll take our chances, thanks.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,487
    Nigelb said:

    The new official line.

    Mike Johnson: "We all understood there was clearly an imminent threat that Iran was very close to the enrichment of nuclear capability ... I don't know where Joe Kent is getting his information ... the president felt he had to strike first to prevent mass casualties"
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2033919110749253641


    Which again doesn't really square with this.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach
    ...Powell’s presence at the talks, and his close knowledge of how they were progressing, was confirmed by three sources. One source said he was in the building at Oman’s ambassadorial residence in Cologny acting as an adviser, reflecting widespread concern about the US expertise on the talks represented by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy on several issues.

    Kushner and Witkoff had invited Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to the Geneva talks, to provide technical expertise, though Kushner would later claim that he and Witkoff had “a pretty deep understanding of the issues that matter in this”. Nuclear experts would later say that Witkoff’s pronouncements on the Iran nuclear programme were riddled with basic errors.

    Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”

    A former official who was briefed on the Geneva talks by some of the participants said: “Witkoff and Kushner did not bring a US technical team with them. They used Grossi as their technical expert, but that is not his job. So Jonathan Powell took his own team.

    “The UK team were surprised by what the Iranians put on the table,” the former official added. “It was not a complete deal, but it was progress and was unlikely to be the Iranians’ final offer. The British team expected the next round of negotiations to go ahead on the basis of the progress in Geneva.”

    That next round of talks was due to take place in Vienna on Monday 2 March, but never happened. The US and Israel had launched their all-out attack two days earlier...

    'Dealmaker' is proving a rather less than apt moniker.
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