The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
@MarqueeMark Am I wrong in thinking your missus is involved with this? Looking forward to seeing it though it may be a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
The missus has been filming with Anthony Hopkins and Helena Bonhma Carter and others this past month, in a film about Daphne du Maurier written by Rose Tremain.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Official IRGC statement: “President Pezeshkian made a mistake [saying they won't attack neighboring countries], and our forces demonstrated his mistake. His comments were 5 hours ago, and since then Dubai and Abu Dhabi are being struck. Ignore Pezeshkian's words during the war.”
We're back to zoom government. "You have no authority here Pres Pezeshkian".
Read the standing orders!
So we now know Pezeshkian is representing one faction in a divided leadership.
Pezeshkian has seemed a bit sidelined since Ali Khameini got taken out And if decision making was indeed devolved out to local command structures he seems a bit of a spare part
He'd been a bit sidelined before Khamenei was taken out to be fair too.
It's a bit like having the Archbishop of Canterbury running the show while the PM sorts out internal matters.
As might have happened but for Henry VIII (and Anne Boleyn).
F1: browsing things. My initial thoughts have a couple of bets with odds worth considering, a pair of sensible bets and a pair of very silly long shot bets.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
No, if the Tories are third or worse in May I would expect her to lose a VONC by a similar margin to what IDS did in 2003 ie 55% for and 45% against. Remember Kemi like IDS (and Truss) only got less than 40% of Tory MPs behind her in the final round of the Tory MPs leadership vote before she won the members vote as IDS did in 2001 and Truss did in 2022.
Cleverly would then be the Michael Howard like figure appointed by coronation to replace her
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Doesnt it depend on the relative gaps?
30 20 17 Ref Lab Con would be a disater 26 23 22 Ref Lab Con would be progress
Official IRGC statement: “President Pezeshkian made a mistake [saying they won't attack neighboring countries], and our forces demonstrated his mistake. His comments were 5 hours ago, and since then Dubai and Abu Dhabi are being struck. Ignore Pezeshkian's words during the war.”
We're back to zoom government. "You have no authority here Pres Pezeshkian".
Read the standing orders!
So we now know Pezeshkian is representing one faction in a divided leadership.
Pezeshkian has seemed a bit sidelined since Ali Khameini got taken out And if decision making was indeed devolved out to local command structures he seems a bit of a spare part
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not sure why
There was a poll. He’s told you about it a thousand times
Official IRGC statement: “President Pezeshkian made a mistake [saying they won't attack neighboring countries], and our forces demonstrated his mistake. His comments were 5 hours ago, and since then Dubai and Abu Dhabi are being struck. Ignore Pezeshkian's words during the war.”
We're back to zoom government. "You have no authority here Pres Pezeshkian".
Read the standing orders!
So we now know Pezeshkian is representing one faction in a divided leadership.
Pezeshkian has seemed a bit sidelined since Ali Khameini got taken out And if decision making was indeed devolved out to local command structures he seems a bit of a spare part
He'd been a bit sidelined before Khamenei was taken out to be fair too.
Given the President is deliberately subordinate to the Supreme Leader, it does not seem surprising if other state elements are not that inclined to listen to the President if they don't feel like it in a crisis, even fi they are supposed to.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
F1: browsing things. My initial thoughts have a couple of bets with odds worth considering, a pair of sensible bets and a pair of very silly long shot bets.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Doesnt it depend on the relative gaps?
30 20 17 Ref Lab Con would be a disater 26 23 22 Ref Lab Con would be progress
Indeed, the former and she is definitely gone.
The latter, there would still likely be a VONC but she has a chance of winning it
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Doesnt it depend on the relative gaps?
30 20 17 Ref Lab Con would be a disater 26 23 22 Ref Lab Con would be progress
Indeed, the former and she is definitely gone.
The latter, there would still likely be a VONC but she has a chance of winning it
The former and i think she will quit, frankly. It would be going backwards from the absolute pasting of 2025
@MarqueeMark Am I wrong in thinking your missus is involved with this? Looking forward to seeing it though it may be a bit of an emotional rollercoaster.
The missus has been filming with Anthony Hopkins and Helena Bonhma Carter and others this past month, in a film about Daphne du Maurier written by Rose Tremain.
Well, can't fault the cast, that's for sure. I'm surprised Hopkins is still acting!
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
On record, I don’t. I don’t trust Cleverly as being One Nation nor effective.
If there is bad results everywhere and a VONC, Kemi don’t survive it for sure. If results and polling that bad mid term, what keeps any leader in post 🤷♀️
England can't get Janse van Rensburg available fast enough for that centre position where everybody they try there as the link player isn't international calibre.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
On record, I don’t. I don’t trust Cleverly as being One Nation nor effective.
If there is bad results everywhere and a VONC, Kemi don’t survive it for sure. If results and polling that bad mid term, what keeps any leader in post 🤷♀️
The dynamic is rather different this time to last year. Reform are on the decline not the advance for one and Labour have nothing to convince their remaining vote to turn out. London they are coming at it from a much lower base than the 22 locals outside London. As such i cant see team Blue doing as badly or anywhere near. If they do then Houston......
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
If there are boots on ground in foreign country, UK government deploys paratroopers or marines doesn’t it? Not the Army? The SAS are army and were on the ground in Libya fighting Gaddaffi. The actual Army helps out peaceful missions in Africa.
F1: browsing things. My initial thoughts have a couple of bets with odds worth considering, a pair of sensible bets and a pair of very silly long shot bets.
Alonso on the podium?!
Gave some serious thought to an 81 bet. Will post the blog shortly.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
On record, I don’t. I don’t trust Cleverly as being One Nation nor effective.
If there is bad results everywhere and a VONC, Kemi don’t survive it for sure. If results and polling that bad mid term, what keeps any leader in post 🤷♀️
The dynamic is rather different this time to last year. Reform are on the decline not the advance for one and Labour have nothing to convince their remaining vote to turn out. London they are coming at it from a much lower base than the 22 locals outside London. As such i cant see team Blue doing as badly or anywhere near. If they do then Houston......
The declining Reform vote really should relate to uplift in Conservative polling, not 18% and less mid term.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
If there are boots on ground in foreign country, UK government deploys paratroopers or marines doesn’t it? Not the Army? The SAS are army and were on the ground in Libya fighting Gaddaffi. The actual Army helps out peaceful missions in Africa.
As I understand it.
Apart from the Paras being Army, most infantry regiments having served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Cavalry regiments serving in Afghanistan and Iraq, Army Air corps out there, a good point.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
The more army we have, the more our PMs and the Generals egging them on will be encouraged to use it.
I want small capable forces, special forces, marines etc., to be sent into trouble spots to act quickly and clinically against mainly people armed with spears.
When, if, God forbid someone invades, we'll all need to be the army.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
If there are boots on ground in foreign country, UK government deploys paratroopers or marines doesn’t it? Not the Army? The SAS are army and were on the ground in Libya fighting Gaddaffi. The actual Army helps out peaceful missions in Africa.
As I understand it.
The peacekeeping force in Cyprus are regular infantry aiui
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
If there are boots on ground in foreign country, UK government deploys paratroopers or marines doesn’t it? Not the Army? The SAS are army and were on the ground in Libya fighting Gaddaffi. The actual Army helps out peaceful missions in Africa.
As I understand it.
Apart from the Paras being Army, most infantry regiments having served in Iraq and Afghanistan, Cavalry regiments serving in Afghanistan and Iraq, Army Air corps out there, a good point.
And not to forget the Royal Engineers, Artillery, REME, Army Intelligence etc.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
I was pretty tempted by Hadjar or Verstappen to win each way but decided against tipping that.
Hoping I get up on time, and the race is both entertaining and profitable. I know it'll be some sort of mess, the question is whether it's horrendous or amusing.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
If you think Cleverly would be an improvement, you obviously didn’t listen to his turgid waffly bollocks on Question Time last Thursday.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
If you think Cleverly would be an improvement, you obviously didn’t listen to his turgid waffly bollocks on Question Time last Thursday.
He was fine and far better than Monbiot's usual whinges
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
If the Tories are 3rd or worse in May Kemi is gone. Any Tory members poll posted until those local and devolved results are in is therefore irrelevant as if the Tories are not even in the top 2 in May Tory MPs will dump Kemi and replace her with Cleverly without even consulting members
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
If you think Cleverly would be an improvement, you obviously didn’t listen to his turgid waffly bollocks on Question Time last Thursday.
He was fine and far better than Monbiot's usual whinges
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
Obama was not the greatest President, in many ways he was a disappointment. But there are damn few who could of do use words like him. At the Memorial Service for Jesse Jackson he said:
"We are living in a time when it can be hard to hope,” “But this man, Rev. Jesse Lewis Jackson inspires us to take a harder path. His voice calls on each of us to be heralds of change, to be messengers of hope, to step forward and say, ‘Send me wherever we have a chance to make an impact.’” “How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call,” Obama continued. “What a great debt we owe to him. May God bless Rev. Jackson. May he rest in eternal peace. God bless you.”
He didn't get distracted by nonsense about a ballroom, he didn't bore the way Starmer does or see the need to pick a fight like Kemi or indulge in self aggrandisement like Trump or his cohorts. In oratory he is simply a different class, even now.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
On misleading polling, if it’s a coronation - VONC and coronation as it surely will be - it’s your posting membership polling that is completely misleading, H’y’s link was more relevant.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There would not. The only opposing candidate from the right was Jenrick, he has gone to Reform and even Jenrick's old campaign manager Francois is a pal of Cleverly as indeed is Patel.
Sunak was elected with over 50% of Tory MPs nominating him in late 2022 and Boris is not an MP now. Cleverly has support across the party from Stride, who backed him in the final round in 2024, to Francois and even Kemi if she lost a VONC would I expect come in behind Sir James. Cleverly would be Tory leader within a week if Kemi went, crowned by Tory MPs like Howard in 2003
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
That shows in his shadow cabinet approval rarings of 31.9% in 11th position done just 2 days ago
OT. Interesting piece of polling on 'Today' which will appear in the Observer tomorrow. Only 6% are where Kemi is ie go in all guns blazing with the Americans
That is not her position
She supports action when and if our military come under attack from Iranian missiles
Indeed Lammy arrived on the same page yesterday
Yesterday US B1s landed in UK, and are authorised by Starmer to use our air bases in their war v Iran
Rachel Sylvester said simply that only 6% were where Kemi is whereas despite the UK press SKS following a rules based order is pretty well where the country is. Voters see broad brush strokes. Incidentally that wasn't Lammy's position. It was the Daily Mail misleading. They asked him what the British should do if attacked. Which shouldn't have given rise to their headline
David Lammy was interviewed across the media and your attempt to dismiss the story as misleading is simply you being misleading
Identical positions? Kemi is NOT coming across as Pro Trumps War and Gung-Ho? 🥹
Little Miss Angry today -
“Keir Starmer spent days consulting lawyers and plucking up the courage to say whose side he was on, even though our allies had the moral clarity to do so immediately and unequivocally. “Even now, he is sitting on the fence, still deciding what our role is going to be in this war. We are in this war whether Keir Starmer likes it or not. It's time to act.”
The Sunday Newspapers need a poll “do you agree with Big G, Kemi is not coming across as Pro Trumps War and Gung Ho?”
Kemi hitting a nerve and is serious about protecting our military who are in direct line of fire
She is right to say that the RAF will attack Iranian missile launch sites if they are a threat to our planes
Seems Lammy agrees as well
Poll the public on my second sentence and see the response
Striking a nerve. That’s exactly my point.
Why Little Miss Angry should be more careful here, her SCATHING ATTACKS on Labour are coming across as scathing attacks on the UK military, whilst they are in the field.
I respectfully disagree, not least because labour have been woeful and deserve criticism
The Navy ship deployment to Cyprus is simply a farce of unimaginable stupidity with the work force under union orders only to work 9 - 5, 5 days a week !!!!!!!!!!!!
Starmer bans US use of British bases following pressure from Miliband and then someone leaks this from the NSC, and within 48 hours Starmer changes his mind allowing B1s to land and take off on mission to Iran from RAF Fairford and B52s from Diego Garcia
Lammy then comes on the media in broadcast interviews and agrees with Kemi that the UK can attack Iran if our military are threatened
And you want the government to have a free pass !!!!!!!!!!!!!
And with equal respect, Big G - whilst you are expending all this energy trying to convince PB the Tory and Lab positions are identical on Trumps War, Little Miss Angry is out there convincing the UK voters there is a GULF OF CLEAR BLUE WATER between Tories and government on this WAR.
You don’t say a boat took too long to get in the med because it was stuck in refit, by pointing out Bevin in 1950 was patriotic, but Labour is not patriotic anymore - that is two different things. How else do you interpret it?
I simply respectfully disagree with you on this, but I provide my own view as honestly as I see it and of courss many will not be persuaded
I would add refering to Kemi as little miss angry and using capitals will not change my view
Projection from MoonRabbit?
ugh. Don’t dig up Sigmund Freud, and pour him all over me.
Noticeable BigG didn’t answer, just said No.
How about Little Miss “Slag Off Britain And Slag Off British Military Whilst It’s In The Air In Theatre” Mouth?
SHE’S GETTING IT WRONG, JUST LIKE CORBYN DID OVER SALISBURY.
Writing in CAPS LOCK does not make your comments either any more accurate or forceful.
Slagging off Starmer's choices is not slagging off either Britain or the British Military.
You are defending what Kemi Badenoch said?
Obviously.
She was right. She neither criticised Britain nor the military, she criticised Starmer and she was right to do so.
“British Troops Are just hanging around.”
You would repeat that yourself?
Yes.
We are bystanders watching as America does the heavy lifting.
Shame on Starmer. Our troops should be fighting our enemy and ensuring regime change occurs, liberating the Iranian public, defeating our enemies and cutting off the supplier of Shahed drones to Russia which is killing Ukrainians.
The issue is that I don’t trust Trump to follow through. At some point he’s going to cut and run, get what he wants and leave us swinging. Without a dependable ally in a joint endeavour it’s not wise to over commit no matter how worthy the objective
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
It is easy to forget Boris had the MP numbers and probably would have beaten Sunak. Whether one thinks that would have helped them (Boris apparently did not since he pulled out), I feel like it gets lost in the general defensive narrative about it being a mistake to get rid of him.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
The more army we have, the more our PMs and the Generals egging them on will be encouraged to use it.
I want small capable forces, special forces, marines etc., to be sent into trouble spots to act quickly and clinically against mainly people armed with spears.
When, if, God forbid someone invades, we'll all need to be the army.
I take it drones require operators? Sounds like gaming skills, of which we have quite a few people.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There would not. The only opposing candidate from the right was Jenrick, he has gone to Reform and even Jenrick's old campaign manager Francois is a pal of Cleverly as indeed is Patel.
Sunak was elected with over 50% of Tory MPs nominating him in late 2022 and Boris is not an MP now. Cleverly has support across the party from Stride, who backed him in the final round in 2024, to Francois and even Kemi if she lost a VONC would I expect come in behind Sir James. Cleverly would be Tory leader within a week if Kemi went, crowned by Tory MPs like Howard in 2003
Do you reckon he could win back former seats that went Lib Dim ?
Emily Thornberry for PM! She's being interviewed by Nick Robinson and she's very good. Everything Starmer isn't. What she says about trans I completely agree with. If Labour don't support them who will. She's instinctively what I've always thought were Labour....
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
On misleading polling, if it’s a coronation - VONC and coronation as it surely will be - it’s your posting membership polling that is completely misleading, H’y’s link was more relevant.
It will not be a coronation with Cleverly down in 11th in rankings
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There isn't a single Tory front bencher including Badenoch, other than Cleverly with Leadership potential.
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
On misleading polling, if it’s a coronation - VONC and coronation as it surely will be - it’s your posting membership polling that is completely misleading, H’y’s link was more relevant.
It will not be a coronation with Cleverly down in 11th in rankings
Anyway, just semantics as it is not happening
It would be a coronation, no other candidate would get any nominations, Cleverly the clear favourite to succeed Kemi of Tory MPs eligible with 2024 Tory voters in polls means he would be the replacement Tory MPs would crown
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
Who do you seriously think is capable other than Cleverly or a grandee
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There would not. The only opposing candidate from the right was Jenrick, he has gone to Reform and even Jenrick's old campaign manager Francois is a pal of Cleverly as indeed is Patel.
Sunak was elected with over 50% of Tory MPs nominating him in late 2022 and Boris is not an MP now. Cleverly has support across the party from Stride, who backed him in the final round in 2024, to Francois and even Kemi if she lost a VONC would I expect come in behind Sir James. Cleverly would be Tory leader within a week if Kemi went, crowned by Tory MPs like Howard in 2003
Rubbish again. Sir John Hayes is the senior member of the Tory Parliamentary right wing, and of course they will have a candidate, which could be someone like Katie Lam. You're making massive leaps of logic and I don't really know why.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
The more army we have, the more our PMs and the Generals egging them on will be encouraged to use it.
I want small capable forces, special forces, marines etc., to be sent into trouble spots to act quickly and clinically against mainly people armed with spears.
When, if, God forbid someone invades, we'll all need to be the army.
I take it drones require operators? Sounds like gaming skills, of which we have quite a few people.
But tell them that they have to polish their boots and get up at 6am, and you won't recruit many.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There isn't a single Tory front bencher including Badenoch, other than Cleverly with Leadership potential.
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
Indeed, Cleverly has been Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
If you think Cleverly would be an improvement, you obviously didn’t listen to his turgid waffly bollocks on Question Time last Thursday.
He was fine and far better than Monbiot's usual whinges
He was clearly highly uncomfortable trying to defend Badenochs awful PMQ behaviour.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There would not. The only opposing candidate from the right was Jenrick, he has gone to Reform and even Jenrick's old campaign manager Francois is a pal of Cleverly as indeed is Patel.
Sunak was elected with over 50% of Tory MPs nominating him in late 2022 and Boris is not an MP now. Cleverly has support across the party from Stride, who backed him in the final round in 2024, to Francois and even Kemi if she lost a VONC would I expect come in behind Sir James. Cleverly would be Tory leader within a week if Kemi went, crowned by Tory MPs like Howard in 2003
Rubbish again. Sir John Hayes is the senior member of the Tory Parliamentary right wing, and of course they will have a candidate, which could be someone like Katie Lam. You're making massive leaps of logic and I don't really know why.
Sir John Hayes would get no nominations beyond a handful and Lam is barely even know beyond her own household and is basically Reform anyway so if she was picked after a 3rd placed or worse Tory perfomance in May the Tories may as well write their own suicide note. Lam would also not therefore get the required nominations.
I like Kemi, but I am not on board with her military stance. She wants 80,000 soldiers. I say what's the point? By the time those soldiers are defending us from attack, it's too late. We need drones, missile defence, and a capable and smart Navy. Then next priority Airforce. Army a distant third.
80000 doesn't sound that much, but I don't know how many would be a good number to have. But drones and missile defence definitely sounds like a priority.
The more army we have, the more our PMs and the Generals egging them on will be encouraged to use it.
I want small capable forces, special forces, marines etc., to be sent into trouble spots to act quickly and clinically against mainly people armed with spears.
When, if, God forbid someone invades, we'll all need to be the army.
I take it drones require operators? Sounds like gaming skills, of which we have quite a few people.
But tell them that they have to polish their boots and get up at 6am, and you won't recruit many.
That’s why they should set up a separate service outside of the Army, RAF and Navy where they don’t have to drill and do the less pleasant parts of military life but are simply getting up each day for shifts wherever they need to be based and doing what they would be doing in their bedrooms on their PlayStations. Basically getting paid to game all day.
Obama was not the greatest President, in many ways he was a disappointment. But there are damn few who could of do use words like him. At the Memorial Service for Jesse Jackson he said:
"We are living in a time when it can be hard to hope,” “But this man, Rev. Jesse Lewis Jackson inspires us to take a harder path. His voice calls on each of us to be heralds of change, to be messengers of hope, to step forward and say, ‘Send me wherever we have a chance to make an impact.’” “How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call,” Obama continued. “What a great debt we owe to him. May God bless Rev. Jackson. May he rest in eternal peace. God bless you.”
He didn't get distracted by nonsense about a ballroom, he didn't bore the way Starmer does or see the need to pick a fight like Kemi or indulge in self aggrandisement like Trump or his cohorts. In oratory he is simply a different class, even now.
Was in a Spanish hotel room flicking through channels when that came on. I actually got quite emotional.
OT. Interesting piece of polling on 'Today' which will appear in the Observer tomorrow. Only 6% are where Kemi is ie go in all guns blazing with the Americans
That is not her position
She supports action when and if our military come under attack from Iranian missiles
Indeed Lammy arrived on the same page yesterday
Yesterday US B1s landed in UK, and are authorised by Starmer to use our air bases in their war v Iran
Rachel Sylvester said simply that only 6% were where Kemi is whereas despite the UK press SKS following a rules based order is pretty well where the country is. Voters see broad brush strokes. Incidentally that wasn't Lammy's position. It was the Daily Mail misleading. They asked him what the British should do if attacked. Which shouldn't have given rise to their headline
David Lammy was interviewed across the media and your attempt to dismiss the story as misleading is simply you being misleading
Identical positions? Kemi is NOT coming across as Pro Trumps War and Gung-Ho? 🥹
Little Miss Angry today -
“Keir Starmer spent days consulting lawyers and plucking up the courage to say whose side he was on, even though our allies had the moral clarity to do so immediately and unequivocally. “Even now, he is sitting on the fence, still deciding what our role is going to be in this war. We are in this war whether Keir Starmer likes it or not. It's time to act.”
The Sunday Newspapers need a poll “do you agree with Big G, Kemi is not coming across as Pro Trumps War and Gung Ho?”
Kemi hitting a nerve and is serious about protecting our military who are in direct line of fire
She is right to say that the RAF will attack Iranian missile launch sites if they are a threat to our planes
Seems Lammy agrees as well
Poll the public on my second sentence and see the response
Striking a nerve. That’s exactly my point.
Why Little Miss Angry should be more careful here, her SCATHING ATTACKS on Labour are coming across as scathing attacks on the UK military, whilst they are in the field.
I respectfully disagree, not least because labour have been woeful and deserve criticism
The Navy ship deployment to Cyprus is simply a farce of unimaginable stupidity with the work force under union orders only to work 9 - 5, 5 days a week !!!!!!!!!!!!
Starmer bans US use of British bases following pressure from Miliband and then someone leaks this from the NSC, and within 48 hours Starmer changes his mind allowing B1s to land and take off on mission to Iran from RAF Fairford and B52s from Diego Garcia
Lammy then comes on the media in broadcast interviews and agrees with Kemi that the UK can attack Iran if our military are threatened
And you want the government to have a free pass !!!!!!!!!!!!!
And with equal respect, Big G - whilst you are expending all this energy trying to convince PB the Tory and Lab positions are identical on Trumps War, Little Miss Angry is out there convincing the UK voters there is a GULF OF CLEAR BLUE WATER between Tories and government on this WAR.
You don’t say a boat took too long to get in the med because it was stuck in refit, by pointing out Bevin in 1950 was patriotic, but Labour is not patriotic anymore - that is two different things. How else do you interpret it?
I simply respectfully disagree with you on this, but I provide my own view as honestly as I see it and of courss many will not be persuaded
I would add refering to Kemi as little miss angry and using capitals will not change my view
Projection from MoonRabbit?
ugh. Don’t dig up Sigmund Freud, and pour him all over me.
Noticeable BigG didn’t answer, just said No.
How about Little Miss “Slag Off Britain And Slag Off British Military Whilst It’s In The Air In Theatre” Mouth?
SHE’S GETTING IT WRONG, JUST LIKE CORBYN DID OVER SALISBURY.
Writing in CAPS LOCK does not make your comments either any more accurate or forceful.
Slagging off Starmer's choices is not slagging off either Britain or the British Military.
You are defending what Kemi Badenoch said?
Obviously.
She was right. She neither criticised Britain nor the military, she criticised Starmer and she was right to do so.
“British Troops Are just hanging around.”
You would repeat that yourself?
Yes.
We are bystanders watching as America does the heavy lifting.
Shame on Starmer. Our troops should be fighting our enemy and ensuring regime change occurs, liberating the Iranian public, defeating our enemies and cutting off the supplier of Shahed drones to Russia which is killing Ukrainians.
The issue is that I don’t trust Trump to follow through. At some point he’s going to cut and run, get what he wants and leave us swinging. Without a dependable ally in a joint endeavour it’s not wise to over commit no matter how worthy the objective
An issue.
Another one is that we simply lack the capacity to project power in Iran.
Existing commitments in Europe (Ukraine particularly), the Atlantic, Cyprus and the Falklands and barely covered by what we have. The cupboard is bare.
The idea that we should bung a few billion in support of an operation we weren't consulted in, is of dubious legality, and even now has no clear aim (other than Trump's personal aggrandisement) is so ridiculous there shouldn't even be a debate over it.
The Trump poodles (or in Farage's case, gimps) should go do one.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There isn't a single Tory front bencher including Badenoch, other than Cleverly with Leadership potential.
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
Indeed, Cleverly has been Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary
Cleverly is at least personable and polite.
His attitude and behaviour as the main Tory spokesman after the debates was very effective but also very dignified, charming even.
He'd debate with often Streeting or Ashworth, stand his ground, make his point and always end with a handshake.
None of this horrible full time aggressive nasty snide backstabbing 24 x7
Obama was not the greatest President, in many ways he was a disappointment. But there are damn few who could of do use words like him. At the Memorial Service for Jesse Jackson he said:
"We are living in a time when it can be hard to hope,” “But this man, Rev. Jesse Lewis Jackson inspires us to take a harder path. His voice calls on each of us to be heralds of change, to be messengers of hope, to step forward and say, ‘Send me wherever we have a chance to make an impact.’” “How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call,” Obama continued. “What a great debt we owe to him. May God bless Rev. Jackson. May he rest in eternal peace. God bless you.”
He didn't get distracted by nonsense about a ballroom, he didn't bore the way Starmer does or see the need to pick a fight like Kemi or indulge in self aggrandisement like Trump or his cohorts. In oratory he is simply a different class, even now.
Was in a Spanish hotel room flicking through channels when that came on. I actually got quite emotional.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
Who do you seriously think is capable other than Cleverly or a grandee
I am not giving it any thought as I do not see it happening
However, the shadow cabinet league table of the membership [5th March] gives a guide on those who could well stand and Cleverly in 11th place is not a good omen for him
He had his chance and was too clever [sorry about the pun] by half and shot himself in the foot
We have to remember that @HYUFD was utterly convinced Johnson is the messiah but as he is not available Cleverly has now taken that role
I do not see any ground swell that would hand the position to Cleverly
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There would not. The only opposing candidate from the right was Jenrick, he has gone to Reform and even Jenrick's old campaign manager Francois is a pal of Cleverly as indeed is Patel.
Sunak was elected with over 50% of Tory MPs nominating him in late 2022 and Boris is not an MP now. Cleverly has support across the party from Stride, who backed him in the final round in 2024, to Francois and even Kemi if she lost a VONC would I expect come in behind Sir James. Cleverly would be Tory leader within a week if Kemi went, crowned by Tory MPs like Howard in 2003
Rubbish again. Sir John Hayes is the senior member of the Tory Parliamentary right wing, and of course they will have a candidate, which could be someone like Katie Lam. You're making massive leaps of logic and I don't really know why.
Sir John Hayes would get no nominations beyond a handful and Lam is barely even know beyond her own household and is basically Reform anyway so if she was picked after a 3rd placed or worse Tory perfomance in May the Tories may as well write their own suicide note. Lam would also not therefore get the required nominations.
It would be Cleverly there is no alternative
Lam is Truss.
Without any actual ministerial experience however bad.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There isn't a single Tory front bencher including Badenoch, other than Cleverly with Leadership potential.
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
Indeed, Cleverly has been Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary
Cleverly is at least personable and polite.
His attitude and behaviour as the main Tory spokesman after the debates was very effective but also very dignified, charming even.
He'd debate with often Streeting or Ashworth, stand his ground, make his point and always end with a handshake.
None of this horrible full time aggressive nasty snide backstabbing 24 x7
Against the spirit of the times. People like nasty, even sensible people here (and some in real life I've met) have expressed dislike or politicians being civil with one another after debates, as a sign their disagreements are not 'genuine'.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
Who do you seriously think is capable other than Cleverly or a grandee
I am not giving it any thought as I do not see it happening
However, the shadow cabinet league table of the membership [5th March] gives a guide on those who could well stand and Cleverly in 11th place is not a good omen for him
He had his chance and was too clever [sorry about the pun] by half and shot himself in the foot
We have to remember that @HYUFD was utterly convinced Johnson is the messiah but as he is not avalabldle Cleverly has now taken that role
I do not see any ground swell that would hand the position to Cleverly
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
I'm not absolutely convinced of the verisimilitude of Con Home polls these days. The membership number is supposed to to be the check but there are alleged to be plenty of valid numbers floating around in forums, so I think they may well be being trolled.
I had my first ever comment deletion on Con Home from that page this week.
Admittedly, I was pointing out that Trump is running a white nationalist administration with semi-Fascist policies *, which apparently a reader or several were not overwhelmingly happy about. And that may be a little on the nose.
(* Which is quite accurate - their politically-driven masked up unidentifiable armed militia with concentration camps and racially directed targeting of individuals is a close historical rhyme to Mussolini's targeting of eg Roma.)
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
Who do you seriously think is capable other than Cleverly or a grandee
I am not giving it any thought as I do not see it happening
However, the shadow cabinet league table of the membership [5th March] gives a guide on those who could well stand and Cleverly in 11th place is not a good omen for him
He had his chance and was too clever [sorry about the pun] by half and shot himself in the foot
We have to remember that @HYUFD was utterly convinced Johnson is the messiah but as he is not avalabldle Cleverly has now taken that role
I do not see any ground swell that would hand the position to Cleverly
Johnson if you recall won the biggest Conservative landslide since Thatcher in 2019, the Tories should never have got rid of him before the 2024 GE had they kept Boris as leader 100 Tory MPs would likely still hold their seats.
The poll of 2024 Tory voters is far more relevant than a Shadow Cabinet members approval poll (of which Cleverly is still net positive) as if the Tories do not retain 2024 Tories and win some Labour and LD tactical votes they will cease to exist after the next general election. Reform will overtake them on seats and ultimately take over the Tory Party absent a move to PR.
Cleverly as I showed you polls better with 2024 Tory voters to succeed Kemi than any other Tory bar Boris, who is not now a Tory MP and ineligible
I thought she was great on that subject. She gave exactly the answer Blair would have given. She said if Labour can't stand up for a minority like trans who can? And that's to me what Labour always were. Above all they believed in living and letting others live.
It made Blair the most popular PM that I can remember until he did something unbelievably Icarus like.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Rubbish. There would be an opposing standard-bearer. Sunak was only elected because Boris chickened out. Howard was seen as senior, competent and a unifier. Cleverly doesn't have anything like that level of credibility.
There isn't a single Tory front bencher including Badenoch, other than Cleverly with Leadership potential.
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
The Tories could get battered in the rest of England, Scotland and Wales, but if that is the result in London the media will be announcing a marvellous set of results for Team Kemi.
The media might but 93% of Tory MPs are not representing London constituencies and if they see the party battered in their English provincial local council or Holyrood elections many will start getting very jittery about holding their own seats with Kemi. It is of course Tory MPs who decide on a VONC in the party leader not the media
There will be no VONC end off
If the Tories are third or worse in the local and devolved elections in May then enough will fear for their seats to get to the 38 Tory MPs requesting a VONC for one to be held
Which she will survive easily
@HYUFD just doesn't get it for reason's I really do not understand
He wants Cleverly to lead.
Not necessarily, if the Tories are at least second on NEV in May I will row in behind Kemi absolutely but if they are third or worse then the voters will clearly have made their judgement on her after 2 successive sets of local elections when the Conservatives have not even made the top 2. In that case I am afraid Cleverly should replace her
Cleverly is on 31% approval with members and he is not the answer
That is +31% you mean!
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
It won't. Nobody will do an MP coronation any more. You cling to this notion because you know Cleverly is neither well-liked enough nor politically skilled enough to get through a full leadership election.
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
They will, they did for Howard in 2003 and effectively did for Sunak in late 2022 too (all Tory leaders who replaced leaders who won less than 40% of Tory MPs like Kemi ie IDS and Truss and would do for Cleverly too).
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
Lets end this now as it is tedious
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
Who do you seriously think is capable other than Cleverly or a grandee
I am not giving it any thought as I do not see it happening
However, the shadow cabinet league table of the membership [5th March] gives a guide on those who could well stand and Cleverly in 11th place is not a good omen for him
He had his chance and was too clever [sorry about the pun] by half and shot himself in the foot
We have to remember that @HYUFD was utterly convinced Johnson is the messiah but as he is not avalabldle Cleverly has now taken that role
I do not see any ground swell that would hand the position to Cleverly
Johnson if you recall won the biggest Conservative landslide since Thatcher in 2019, the Tories should never have got rid of him before the 2024 GE had they kept Boris as leader 100 Tory MPs would likely still hold their seats
Comments
The missus has been filming with Anthony Hopkins and Helena Bonhma Carter and others this past month, in a film about Daphne du Maurier written by Rose Tremain.
As might have happened but for Henry VIII (and Anne Boleyn).
Shaping up to be an incredibly busy weekend on #bbclaurak -
@JohnSwinney tells us he might block US military flights from using Prestwick Airport
Cleverly would then be the Michael Howard like figure appointed by coronation to replace her
30 20 17 Ref Lab Con would be a disater
26 23 22 Ref Lab Con would be progress
The latter, there would still likely be a VONC but she has a chance of winning it
It would be going backwards from the absolute pasting of 2025
Two stodgy teams kicking away
If there is bad results everywhere and a VONC, Kemi don’t survive it for sure. If results and polling that bad mid term, what keeps any leader in post 🤷♀️
An Ipsos poll last summer found that if Kemi was no longer Tory leader the top 3 favoured replacements for her amongst 2024 Conservative voters were Boris on 24% (who is not an MP and ineligible), then Cleverly on 14% and Sunak on 12%. Jenrick had 10% but is now in Reform, Tugendhat 7%, Hunt 5% and Patel 4% (tied with Braverman who like Jenrick is in Reform) and Stride had 2% tied with Philp.
So if Kemi goes it will be Cleverly by coronation of Tory MPs
https://conservativehome.com/2025/08/07/the-return-of-boris-tory-voters-are-looking-back-to-the-future/
As I understand it.
I want small capable forces, special forces, marines etc., to be sent into trouble spots to act quickly and clinically against mainly people armed with spears.
When, if, God forbid someone invades, we'll all need to be the army.
The only people who matter are her mps and membership not Ipsos poll last summer !!!! Nor a conhome poll from August 2025 !!!!!!
Try this one dated 5th March 2026 which you have not posted or refered to not least as it contradicts your narrative
https://conservativehome.com/2026/03/05/shadow-cabinet-league-table-badenoch-may-not-be-popular-with-starmer-but-shes-dominant-with-conservatives/
London Mayor is the best job he has a (slim) chance of getting. I suspect it will become another two-horse race, and I don't rate his chances of getting the right-wing vote over Layla Moran, you never know.
Betting Post:Backed Hadjar to win group 4 (versus Leclerc and Piastri) at 5.25, and split a stake evenly for points for Bearman (boosted 2.65) and Ocon (2.8). https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2026/03/australia-2026-pre-race.html
I was pretty tempted by Hadjar or Verstappen to win each way but decided against tipping that.
Hoping I get up on time, and the race is both entertaining and profitable. I know it'll be some sort of mess, the question is whether it's horrendous or amusing.
The London Mayor election is not for years, if Kemi is replaced after dire local and devolved elections in May for the Tories it would be Cleverly by coronation, no other candidate would get anywhere near enough Tory MP nominations to even get close to being nominated
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/2030070361488863551?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
In your opinion but others are available
And stop using misleading polling as it is quite bizarre
https://x.com/unionbuster/status/2030335796100710618?s=61
"We are living in a time when it can be hard to hope,” “But this man, Rev. Jesse Lewis Jackson inspires us to take a harder path. His voice calls on each of us to be heralds of change, to be messengers of hope, to step forward and say, ‘Send me wherever we have a chance to make an impact.’” “How fortunate we were that Jesse Jackson answered that call,” Obama continued. “What a great debt we owe to him. May God bless Rev. Jackson. May he rest in eternal peace. God bless you.”
H/t to the Daily Kos: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/3/6/2371999/-Watch-Obama-s-moving-tribute-to-the-late-Jesse-Jackson?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_7&pm_medium=web
He didn't get distracted by nonsense about a ballroom, he didn't bore the way Starmer does or see the need to pick a fight like Kemi or indulge in self aggrandisement like Trump or his cohorts. In oratory he is simply a different class, even now.
Sunak was elected with over 50% of Tory MPs nominating him in late 2022 and Boris is not an MP now. Cleverly has support across the party from Stride, who backed him in the final round in 2024, to Francois and even Kemi if she lost a VONC would I expect come in behind Sir James. Cleverly would be Tory leader within a week if Kemi went, crowned by Tory MPs like Howard in 2003
She'd go down like a bucket of cold sick in the Red Wall.
Not sure what the beef is between her and SKS.
She won't ever live down her white van comment but that's ancient history.
Very highly respected for her Committee work in HoC
Would unite left and right
Don't be daft.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54117-what-is-the-tactical-voting-landscape-in-february-2026
Anyway, just semantics as it is not happening
Badenochs behaviour the past week has been pitiful.
The only option to Cleverly is a grandee like Davis. He paucity of front bench Tory talent is stark.
Can’t see it saving them from relegation.
https://x.com/yossibenyakar/status/2030229940709253415?s=61
It would be Cleverly there is no alternative
Another one is that we simply lack the capacity to project power in Iran.
Existing commitments in Europe (Ukraine particularly), the Atlantic, Cyprus and the Falklands and barely covered by what we have. The cupboard is bare.
The idea that we should bung a few billion in support of an operation we weren't consulted in, is of dubious legality, and even now has no clear aim (other than Trump's personal aggrandisement) is so ridiculous there shouldn't even be a debate over it.
The Trump poodles (or in Farage's case, gimps) should go do one.
His attitude and behaviour as the main Tory spokesman after the debates was very effective but also very dignified, charming even.
He'd debate with often Streeting or Ashworth, stand his ground, make his point and always end with a handshake.
None of this horrible full time aggressive nasty snide backstabbing 24 x7
However, the shadow cabinet league table of the membership [5th March] gives a guide on those who could well stand and Cleverly in 11th place is not a good omen for him
He had his chance and was too clever [sorry about the pun] by half and shot himself in the foot
We have to remember that @HYUFD was utterly convinced Johnson is the messiah but as he is not available Cleverly has now taken that role
I do not see any ground swell that would hand the position to Cleverly
Without any actual ministerial experience however bad.
https://x.com/DalrympleWill/status/2030189354539504113
I had my first ever comment deletion on Con Home from that page this week.
Admittedly, I was pointing out that Trump is running a white nationalist administration with semi-Fascist policies *, which apparently a reader or several were not overwhelmingly happy about. And that may be a little on the nose.
(* Which is quite accurate - their politically-driven masked up unidentifiable armed militia with concentration camps and racially directed targeting of individuals is a close historical rhyme to Mussolini's targeting of eg Roma.)
The poll of 2024 Tory voters is far more relevant than a Shadow Cabinet members approval poll (of which Cleverly is still net positive) as if the Tories do not retain 2024 Tories and win some Labour and LD tactical votes they will cease to exist after the next general election. Reform will overtake them on seats and ultimately take over the Tory Party absent a move to PR.
Cleverly as I showed you polls better with 2024 Tory voters to succeed Kemi than any other Tory bar Boris, who is not now a Tory MP and ineligible
It made Blair the most popular PM that I can remember until he did something unbelievably Icarus like.
It's the way you tell them.
https://x.com/marshalotis/status/2030342811845812725