Some match bets for Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com
Some match bets for Gorton & Denton – politicalbetting.com
Ladbrokes have some match bets for Thursday’s by-election and I’m not sure if I should bet. I can see both the Conservative and Lib Dem vote shares collapsing like the French army in 1940 but I am not sure which party will sink the lowest. If I had to choose I’d back the Lib Dems in this market based on relative value.
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Con might just about ssve deposit, LD maybe 3% is my fag packet offering
Loonies 0.3%
Something like that
They must be a tad concerned that they have lost the status of NOTA protest party to the Greens.
And for the official opposition not to be bothering in a by-election against an unpopular government is also very telling.
I’d go with a ladder of UK gilts timed (the extent possible) to match the payment schedule. You’d make 3+ percent.
But you could probably also get that from a series of fixed term deposits at your bank which might be easier
Starmer in Hartlepool.... and that was much more winnable. It almost ended his leadership.
Con have zero to gain being uber visible in Gorton
Tugendhat throwing about lurid allegations of child prostitutes being trafficked via RAF bases to Royal residences. Not sure what he's basing that on.
Meanwhile, domestic cinema continues to grow.
It's crazy how much the world's third-largest movie market has turned off Hollywood - and how unconcerned studios seem to be...
https://x.com/GearoidReidy/status/2025449752620622023
Perception and momentum is key though in Politics and they will be running a risk of taking their eye off the ball. I doubt it will have any negative impact though.
What I'll be interesting will be to see how the ground campaigns of Greens, Labour and Reform stand up.
I do think Polanski bottling the chance to gain a Hoc presence may bite him on the backside whether they win or not.
A move to Rupes Team would not be a surprise.
It must be utterly demoralising for him to see nonentities like Pritti and Cartlidge in roles he'd covet.
He's more One Nation than me and that's saying something.
Good morning, everybody.
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The producer sent me a copy of the call sheet to see if there was anything I wanted that he'd missed out. I said I couldn't think of anything but I noticed he's put down 'Masseuse'?.
"What's that for?". I asked
"That's for you or the cast" He said
"Well I can't speak for the Persian Cat but I'm fine without one"
That would be a bit of a pivot.
(Edit: Agree with you on Tugendhat not defecting though.)
He's a bit homeless, never going to his left, might drift to Rupe.
Kate and William are hopefully mindful of this going forwards.
One Nation needs to be stop being seen as Wets in a Thatcher context but back to the likes of SuperMac.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/559f4da9187b4a25
Gift link bypasses paywall (although basically that headline is the story).
The problem Charles has is he also contributed to the pay off, so it is naive to think he wasn't aware of the detail and there is a real prospect both he and other royals could be drawn into this scandal
This is a very slow burning fuse for the royals
Hence you have more in common with Orange Book LDs than Reform, probably about 1/3 of Tories are similar to you on that.
SuperMac though was pretty wet even on economics, he said Thatcher's privatisations were 'selling off the family silver' and would probably have become a Heseltine Tory with some LD sympathies
However, look at the graph and the change wasn’t around the Southern Strategy. There was a slow decline from the late ‘80s that accelerated around 2015.
Experts warn of declining ‘talent problem’ as 7pc of the workforce is set to retire by 2029
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/22/scaffolder-shortage-deals-fresh-blow-to-labours-building-pl/ (£££)
Train more Brits, recruit from overseas, or wait for AI scaffolders? It's a dilemma.
There's a reason that other building trades make jokes about them. Even underpinners look down on them.
FAB 18, of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. in the South Taiwan Science Park, Tainan
Just completed, so they can make the most advanced silicon chips in the world
It’s vast. It’s mind bogglingly vast. No windows. High security. A trillion scooters for the workers. And it’s erection was delayed by the discovery of an enormous Neolithic death pit, 5000 years old ,containing the decapitated victims - women and children - of Taiwan’s ancient head hunting tribes
What a place. The brutal darkness of the distant past and the beautiful darkness of the terrifying future. Colliding here on a faintly bleak pasture on a smallish island in the South China Sea
The noom is severe
As I told you at the weekend a civil settlement also has a much lower burden of proof than a criminal case. In any case while the late Queen definitely paid most of the pay off as did the estate of Philip it is not clear whether King Charles made any contribution to it at all
I don’t consider that contributing towards the settlement was a wrongful act on Charles’ part. Many of us have contributed towards the black sheep who are close to us, when they need to pay off those that they have wronged.
https://x.com/labournorthwest/status/2025491037133684792?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
But at least they arent you fuckers!
It is irrelevant that it was a civil matter, but if Charles and others are able to prove they were not aware of the reason for the payoff then that is important
As I said this is a slow burning fuse for the royals
The Labour Party are ten points adrift for operational rather than ideological reasons.
Anyway there is always swing back, or so we used to be told by PB Tories during the last Parliament.
That’s a point of view, but not one that I share.
The politicians know that Mandy is hoping to timeout the outrage and it to turn into a decade long "enquiry" that announces that charges wouldn't be in the public interest.
I would seek advice and pay a lawyer to act on the family's behalf
I do indeed sometimes vote LibDem - quite often in local elections, twice in General Elections including the last one. However for national elections the socialist wing of the LibDem puts me off more than the conservative wing of the Tories
However I am now fairly disgusted by the spiv wing which seems to believe that capitalism means guaranteed excess profit and personal riches at taxpayer expense so I may indeed find myself making a more permanent move to the LibDems. At the moment I would likely vote for them at the next election
It would have been good if we had someone here who lives in the Gorton and Denton constituency to give an idea as to what campaign leaflets are dropping through doors and if they’d had visits from the parties and what their messaging is.
I just hope we dont end up with a warty lincolnshire prick this time
Or we could have a Royal Commission chaired by Prince Andrew.
The advice of the lawyers would have been to pay the settlement.
Hows he supposed to shadow anyone as an unelected nobody? Hang about outside parliament with a megaphone like Steve Bray?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdr232j8kgvo
https://x.com/kevin_maguire/status/2025841957814067336?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
(Times Radio interview.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oQ5OKCtnTk
Andrew is an incredibly stupid, self entitled prat who has lived a largely pointless life. I really don't want to start feeling sorry for him.