The public strongly support Starmer on Iran – politicalbetting.com
The public strongly support Starmer on Iran – politicalbetting.com
With Donald Trump's u-turn on the Chagos Islands deal reportedly because Keir Starmer refused the US permission to launch Iran strikes from RAF airbases in the UK, today's poll finds 58% of Britons back the PM's callyougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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Signs of a significant change in PM mindset on Trump.
Tory - saved deposit
LD - 3%+
Advance UK - 2%+
The rest - 1%+
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/02/in-gorton-and-denton-the-muslim-vote-is-fracturing
Is Gorton and Denton going the same way as Stoneygate ward in Leicester did this week?
Were it not for the appalling nature of the Iranian regime, the numbers supporting the government stance would be even higher.
The FlightRadar24 timelapse shows the to-and-fro of the transporters. It may just be dickwaving for Russia and China's benefit.
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/2025419012721492408
No surprises whatsoever on that polling - I'm not sure why they bothered.
Even the Conservative and Reform parties have significant minorities who are less enthused about Trump so it complicates the positions Badenoch and Farage can take on these issues.
There are a couple of new markets on Betfair. One on turnout, and one on second place. Lab 3.6 for second place.
I have had a nibble at 5.7 on turnoit 35 to 39.99% with a little on 40-44.99%. This is a low turnout election despite all our interest.
The motivation for any bombing campaign would be about distracting from Epstein/tariffs, or a power trip, not supporting a revolution. See Greenland/NATO/Venezuela.
My head says Labour will also narrowly edge Reform, but I do think its still winnable for Reform - the conditions will never be more perfect, with neither progressive side able to finish the other off and absorb their vote. Reform could pick up a lot of that 'Don't know' vote and score a massive upset. I think at this stage their message should be (and probably is) 'this is a free hit' - lend me your vote and if you don't like what happens, go back to Labour next time.'
Is the link to the info suggesting this
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxgln3gnd6o
Im not sure what data they are looking at.
I'll be very surprised if Reform have overall majorities in more than Havering and Bexley
Largest party or significant gains, sure
And yet it's not impossible that US intervention would provide the impetus for the Iranian regime to be overthrown.
And on the other, other hand, no one has a clue of what might follow that, and it certainly didn't seem to form any part of whatever the US plan is.
I'd have been in the don't knows in this poll.
I'd be astonished if Reform won Barking - yes, they could well win seats there and in a number of other Boroughs and they could deny the Conservatives outright control in Croydon and Barnet but I don't see that kind of turquoise wave on current evidence.
Iran authorities demanding large sums for return of protesters' bodies, BBC told
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g5md1n1yxo
Family of Iranian protester forced to 'pay for the bullet that killed their son'
https://news.sky.com/story/family-of-iranian-protester-forced-to-pay-for-the-bullet-that-killed-their-son-13508060
Still odds against, but worth thinking about.
He;s not wrong in his overall assessment, however, and the sentiments expressed in his vox-pops are far from unusual. It's part of the deeper discontent, malaise, call it what you will, which I'm not sure can be easily assuaged by economic growth or a "factory reset" (whatever that means).
Syed is right in asserting we are still in recovery from the events of 2008 and their political and socio-economic impacts. As might be expected, another kind word for Badenoch in the conclusion but the evidence she or Stride are looking at anything approaching a "reset" is flimsy at this time.
Also, despite all the bellowing about the biggest build up of US forces since Iraq I haven't seen mention of land forces; are there any? Can't see forced regime change happening without some element of that.
And Labour holding on everywhere is just daft on every single metric available.
Oh well, more fun taking the piss out of them later
Trump has once already encouraged continuing protests with the promise of intervention, and not followed through.
Will this time be different ?
His test bowling record was never given the credit he deserved and on the sub continent particularly he could bowl 4 overs at the start at 4 or 5 an over and put scoreboard pressure on.
With the bat in 5 day game he could transform tempo in an hour and in 1 day game bat anywhere from 1 to 10 and make quick runs.
Always sage advice too on the pitch,particularly for Stokes.
From all accounts too a thoroughly decent man and wonderful role model off the pitch.
https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/54025-us-military-intervention-iran-little-support-half-americans-think-likely-to-happen-soon-january-30-february-2-2026-economist-yougov-poll
Americans are generally more likely to oppose than support military intervention in Iran:
By 48% to 28%, Americans are more likely to oppose than support the U.S. taking military action in Iran
By 42% to 33%, Americans are more likely to oppose than support the U.S. using military force to overthrow Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
By 52% to 25%, Americans are more likely to oppose than support the U.S. bombing Iran in response to its treatment of protesters
Less than 20% of Democrats and a majority of Republicans support each of the three descriptions of possible intervention..
A majority of those polled think intervention will happen anyway, and a majority doubt the regime will be overthrown by bombing.
I expect the Tories to go in hard on Josh Simon and Chagos then Mandy/Starmer once docs are out
I will be happier if we stay out of it. Trump is deranged. He cannot be allowed to be perceived as weak. If that means murdering people in random boats in the Pacific or Caribbean or in Tehran doesn't seem to bother him or his sycophants. But it should bother those who think that there should be some morality in world affairs.
I think they’ll do very well in Dagenham, but won’t win the borough.
Hillingdon, Croydon, even Sutton are possibles, but in the first two, I think a Con/ Reform coalition is more likely.
Westminster can’t be NOC. It’s either Con or Lab, and I think Con is most likely.
Labour, IMHO, will lose Barnet, Camden, Merton, and quite possibly, Enfield, Wandsworth, Haringey, and Islington.
*(You can usually tell them by repeated mentions of Chagos)
There are a couple of thousand engaged in military training; that's it.
https://news.sky.com/story/inaccurate-evidence-from-ai-tool-led-to-police-pursuing-ban-on-israeli-football-fans-mps-find-13510249
"Microsoft's Copilot AI tool led to more inaccurate evidence being used by West Midlands Police (WMP) to pursue a ban on Israeli football fans, MPs have uncovered.
The revelation comes in a Commons select committee report into the controversial decision to exclude Maccabi Tel Aviv supporters from a Europa League match at Aston Villa in November that already forced out the chief constable, Craig Guildford.
Sky News previously found discrepancies in how the force represented evidence from Amsterdam police about unrest around a Maccabi match at Ajax in 2024."
I think Labour also lose overall control in Hounslow
Hillingdon might go NoC but more likely Con hold than Ref gain
After that - anything could kick off.
The 2nd carrier will be running defence of Israel stuff apparently.
I mean the stuff in place is way way in excess of 'pressure for a deal' so something will happen and flights in continue......
It's increasingly unlikely that he's able to make even vaguely rational decisions (and pace william, "Trump's instincts" are almost entirely malign).
Today's update.
https://x.com/MaMoMVPY/status/2025477726719619298
This Sunday morning, I've now seen a number of comments on this mysterious Truth Social post from Donald Trump. It demonstrates with absolute clarity that the man is suffering from dementia and cannot grasp the most basic connections.
Why do I say this? Because what his post is almost certainly prompted by is the fact that the Danish navy evacuated a sick crew member from an American submarine near Greenland within the last few days.
Trump has been informed of this and told that the sick submariner (or whatever his rank may be) has been evacuated. But Trump's dementia-addled brain cannot process even the most straightforward information. Hence his bizarre post.
In the White House, everyone knows that this is what has happened. The question is, when will they finally acknowledge that he is no longer mentally present?
On Chagos it is quite simply an absolute non issue for 98% of the general public.
In fact Starmer refusing to let the Yanks use it, and hopefully his continued refusal to let them use it to bomb Iran, is likely to be a fat bigger issue for Joe Public and a big net win for Starmer.
There's no reason to have sent that just for a show of force.
The detail and length of the preparations suggests the safety of the US fleet, and the protection of Israel will take priority over any concern for what's happening, and will happen on the ground in Iran.
The lunatic is running the Truth Social account and the more sanguine types around him, granted not many, seek to clear up the increasingly bizarre shit show.
A cognitive assessment done independently on Trump and Old Joe would probably find Biden in a far better condition.
https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1750020277210169760
Weather is light rain and a breeze.
The SEND issue is a minefield of malpractice, bad proceeds delay, angst and frustration and a huge cost to the Exchequer.
It would appear that her detailed proposals to be announced tomorrow will be a considered attempt to move the matter forwards, better for the majority of parents and children and for schools.
No doubt some will be loud opponents as is always the case, but hopefully all but the mad left of Labour, and the sensible majority of others will support it.
A big test for Tories and Reform who appear to have no coherent plans and for the Tories whose whole education policy seemed to be run by the crazed nutcase Babslsingh an area where they have zero credibility.
FYI - Forest's fixtures next year could be wild.
Bristol City (H)
Real Madrid (A)
Lincoln City (A)
PSG (H)
The trouble is the Right can't win if the posher voters go Conservative and the saltier ones go Reform under FPTP.
I don't doubt he's always been unethical/highly questionable, but he's got much worse over the last 15+ years.
It will still be heralded a massive shock but the right wing media will be in a massive conundrum if golden boy Farage comes third or indeed second.
It would be a massive choker for them to have to report a combined left wing thrashing of the right.
Totally agree about the need for Labour to shake the blinkers off now and focus on Polanski and not Farage.
Just throwing a few bombs and missiles into Iran would be very unlikely to get regime change - it would probably just get the Ayatollahs to crack down even harder. Regime change in a country of 25 million in 2003 took a year's preparation and half a million ground troops. This time there are only two carrier battle groups - more than enough firepower for some punitive airstrikes, but nothing like enough to invade a country, let alone occupy it.
So I see this more as a distraction from the Epstein files than an attempt to do anything meaningful there. Of course it's possible that the Iranian regime is so weak that the opposition will be encouraged sufficiently to overthrow it. I doubt that's the case, based on what we've seen over the last couple of months, but of course I've no more information than anyone else on this.
You only have to look at Venezuela to see what motivates Trump. It's not the government which is basically the same as before, and not the people, it's getting money, ideally they ends up under his direct control.
Then of course there is Ukraine, which is about as straightforward a conflict as you could imagine with Russia entirely in the wrong. What is Trump proposing? Ukraine to give Russia more territory, and disarm, so that the US can gain a fig leaf to restart trade with Russia.
I don't have much hope that any deal or conflict that Trump has a hand in will make life better for Iranians.
But that should lock her in - candidate for2029, perhaps?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Park_jogger_case#Media_coverage
(I've cashed out G&D; I don't trust my judgement if it is volatile.)
He was paying off Jesse Jackson via PUSH, to try and ameliorate the damage court cases were doing, IIRC.
Reform are startimg to look like yesterdays radicals with Captain Pugwash doing a Greta for photo ops.
Third in G and D and the bottom can start falling out
But then of course it would face the insoluble problems of governing a huge and hostile country of 90 million people teeming with religious fanatics and other madmen. A rule of thumb I've heard is you need one soldier for every 20 inhabitants to occupy a country. So the Americans would need 4.5 million troops, or around ten times their current active duty army, just to occupy Iran.
I know Trump never thinks things through, but even the Epstein files can't really be that bad for him, can they?
Donald Trump is an arsehole and anti-democracy, but that does not make the Ayatollahs acceptable.
Provoking an overthrow and putting in the puppet shah is the plan, surely