Tactical voting ahoy – politicalbetting.com
Tactical voting ahoy – politicalbetting.com
?/ With tactical voting ever more common, who do voters back when only two parties have a chance in their seat?Con 31% v Ref 24%Lab 35% v Ref 31%Lab 29% v Con 28%LD 41% v Ref 29%LD 34% v Con 26%LD 29% v Lab 21%LD 26% v Grn 25%Grn 42% v Ref 27%Grn 37% v Con 29%Grn 30% v Lab 20%
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Edit now I have the first - the problem will come down to how obvious the winning anti-Regorm candidate is in a constituency and the Welsh elections aren’t a good test as Plaid is the perfect not-Reform but still none of the above choice there.
Elsewhere in many places in 2029 the obvious choice for not Reform is Labour but who is going to vote for them unless a lot changes
What is more interesting is the now relatively high number of Labour, LD and Green voters who would even hold their nose to vote Tory to beat Reform. 45% of LDs, 30% of Labour and even 25% of Greens would vote Conservative if only Reform or the Conservatives could win their seat.
Hopefully Kemi will take note that she may need centrist swing voters voting Conservative after all given the lost Tory voters to their right to Reform to shore up the blue vote in Tory held seats
FWIW I wouldn't rule out Arsenal just yet.
In key seats those LD / Labour / Greens would hol their nose long enough to vote for Cleverley, a personable man who is likeable enough to vote for tactically. Badenoch is really Farage with whatever haor style she choses on a given day and lacks even his charm or personality.
The only way Tories stay alive or relevant is inch back to the ground of Cameron and May.
As a party member I'm not allowed to vote tactically if Labour is standing.
ISTR there was a time when the number of votes in a by-election was fewer than the number of members of the local CLP. The Liberal Democrats won by a whisker and nothing more was heard about that rule.
That was Richmond Park. Quite amusing.
As a citizen of a free, democratic country you're allowed to vote for whomever you damn please, since its a free country with a secret ballot.
My brain hurts slightly, and I shall be reading the comments from @HYUFD and a few others, rather than drilling down.
The only bet I have in Gorton and Denton is a small lay on the Greens at about 1.5. And now a small backing of Lab as above. Both are intended for trading.
It's too volatile for me on the whole.
Here are Restore Britain's Campaigns Director and Senior Policy figure, from last week and last autumn respectively.
Obviously the "indigenous British ancestry" straight-from-the-BNP stuff is the white nationalist bollocks it has always been - preferring comforting fairy stories to actual history. As for "Patriarchal Tribal figures have always emerged" - did he imbibe Fraser's Golden Bough as a teenager?
Is calling for ethnic cleansing (or 'religious cleansing') of Muslims etc neo-Nazi? I think neo-Fascist is a safe accusation for Restore Britain, since the policy is consonant with the practice of Mussolini or (I think) Franco, or Trump. I think neo-Nazi is a push since they are not proposing extermination and genocide. Rupert would start frothing his head off, but the "neo-Fascist" label is accurate.
But he won't take legal action because it will put a focus on the poisonous underbelly of his party, and him having people like Yaxley-Lennon & many similars on board his charabanc.
For Laila Cunnningham, imo it's just the latest lazy kneejerk to emerge from her bubble-brain.
But I spent most of my life in a constituency where they weighed the Conservative vote and this situation isn't a problem that's come my way yet.
Good morning, everyone.
There is one way to unite the country, some kind of grand project we can all get behind. To that end I propose
THE LEONDAMUS MEMORIAL PARK
It should occupy the largely unnecessary green spaces that at present form Regent’s Park. Instead of the silly football fields and zoo, there would be a 8000 metre high statue of me, made from Cornish granite, serpentine, emeralds, and inexplicably radioactive Portland stone, surrounded by various pavilions inscribed with jewels spelling out some of my most famous neologisms from PB like “baxtered”, “skyr tolmakersson”, “rogerdamus”, “gaylording ponceyboots”, “eadric”, “farmy farm” and “only one photo a day”
Various stalls would be erected season by season offering fruit ices and gummy bears with profits going to my own charity, inspired by Save the Children, which we all know as “save the really hot ones”
In criticism of it...
Aside from the Lib Dem’s who seem to have an affinity with their brand of pro Palestine/wealth tax no/open borders now lunacy.
Under Lord Rennard they were formidable campaigners.
I’m right now at the Chiang Kai Shel memorial hall in Taipei and there are happy families and local young people gathered together picnicking and dallying and singing patriotic songs. Quite frankly it’s inspiring. Why can’t we do the same??
A ridiculously huge statue and numbingly vast plaza dedicated entirely to me and my sayings and other things connected to me, right in the middle of London, is exactly the kind of thing we could all get behind. A focus of unity which we desperately need
Wouldn't you, at the very least, have to fake your own death and vanish from public life? I'm not sure the nation could cope with that trauma.
https://www.lonelyplanet.com/points-of-interest/cihu-memorial-sculpture-park/1357934
Though this is because they were unwanted...
Edit: https://spectator.com/article/why-taiwan-is-pulling-down-statues-of-chiang-kai-shek/
But there are some usef examples from history. eg the concept of “the living saint” - men so clearly elevated and holy they are canonised while alive. Someone like Padre Pio
In many ways I am already the Cornish Padre Pio - Padre Pasty, if you like - so official recognition should be a mere formality. No doubt there will be some nit picking nimbys who will object to the total conversion of Regent’s Park into a weirdly fascistic memorial zone totally. dedicated to the glorification of me but it’s time we cut through this petty red tape that is holding back crucial development
So ensuring they don't form a government should be easy.
There is one central problem, and another secondary problem, and the next election may well turn on its resolution: Firstly identifying the party in each relevant seat that can beat Reform in a world where Labour unusually hold all the seats that are most likely to change hands, but are now unloved.
(Cumbria, apart from Farron's seat is my example but is typical: 2024: all Labour. 2019: all Tory. Projected 2029: all Reform. Which party is the tactical vote?)
The secondary problem is how to know if voting Tory is in fact a vote for a Reform + Tory government or not.
I was a little harsh in my previous comment though. I'm sure a high proportion of the PB Community would back it. Byronic, LadyG, Eadric, Fitz, SeanT...
Quite encouraging really.
Perhaps Ashfield will be like last time - Tories AWOL, LibDems still starting to rebuild, Ashfield Independents - I have no idea, Labour second, Agent Anderson perhaps 1st again - if he stands will depend on whether Nigel is still politically extant, and whether LA yet has enough cash for his pension pot.
I'm not aware of anyone asking him or any others about the problem with mythologising the Medieval period vs the many pogroms, whilst trying to say they are friendly to the Jewish community.
I'm sure someone will before long. There was a pogrom in Norwich in 1190, just a few miles from his constituency, and repeated explusion of Jews from the country, which is a precise mirror of his policies for some people.
It’s so uncanny I presume the Taiwanese architect was inspired by Mexican antiquities. Maybe he felt they captured the sense of brutal quasi religious autocracy and could not be bettered
Two points are different to my general view:
1 - They position Yaxley-Lennon as a "civic Nationalist".
2 - They note the interesting, but imo unlikely, possibility of Lowe creating hyper-localist parties - he already has Great Yarmouth First as one platform.
https://www.greatyarmouthfirst.co.uk/get-involved/
https://hopenothate.org.uk/2026/02/17/rupert-lowe-and-restore-britain-what-you-need-to-know/
Regardless, I just don’t believe that significant numbers of left wing voters would vote tactically for the Conservatives. People vote tactically for the best-placed party on their own side, not for the opposing side. It’s like Republicans hypothetically agreeing in polling, to certain scenarios where they would not vote for Trump. In the event, they voted for Trump.
On these numbers, Labour would lose a ton of seats to Reform, as there is very little Lib Dem vote to be squeezed in their favour, in Labour seats where Reform challenge them. There is frequently, a fair-sized Conservative vote, to be squeezed, in such seats.
The Standard has a piece up digging muvh too deeply and earnestly into the London subsample of this polling suggesting Reform will get shut out (they weirdly seem to suggest zero Reform seats at a GE in London)
Not suggesting we take that at face value but it mentions areas like Bexley snd Bromley swinging behind the Tories to stop Reform.
We have a good test of that theory coming up........
As far as Bromley goes, Reform narrowly took Bromley Common at near the height of their popularity in July and the bottom of the Tories and there is 32% Lab LD to 'squeeze' (if we follow the Standard). Bromley will be, i think, a good test of the Tory firewall
So all groups will have one unbeaten team in them.
Not desperately improbable, but not a certainty either.
Oh, and did I mention, Australia didn't qualify for the next round?
Historical precedent is with Man City - they have won the premier league 8 times, and that included a four in a row streak. They have also been shown to be able to go on extended winning runs when it nears crunch time. Arsenal have not won the top division title since 2004, over two decades ago. Villa last won the top division in 1981, before the premiership/premier league was even a twinkle in the eye.
If I had to say now I'd put my stake on Man City, but I wouldn't put too much on.
Ang’s new do has lost the austere fringe in favour of smiley bangs! And where once were russet drapes of head schoolgirl, prone to staring into middle distance {like a diplodocus with wind} - now a vivid copper buoyancy, looking straight into the lens with a brazen defiance.
Yes. You are not alone.
It’s what makes canvassing such fun. There’s a synthesis off the doorstep that tells us a million and one things. Most have no bearing on the price of fish. Nevertheless, it adds up.
I enjoyed a day in Denton last week. What amazed me was how cross people were with Labour. Like I’m already over my dissatisfaction, and accepting that life serves us lemons, but so many people were totally unforgiving. More invested I guess.
The people organising the events have no actual interest in the wider wisdom. It’s all numbers to them. But as an activist, it’s fascinating.
Here in East Ham, we are likely to have the added entertainment of the Tactical Vote options between Labour, the Newham Independents and the Greens. The miniscule number of LD and Conservative voters will have an interesting choice....
There's no surprise to see division - democracy flows from it. "Left" versus "Right" is as meaningless now as it was when it was all about on which side you sat. In some ways, the ideology has conformed to the geography but it's never been that clearcut and whether you call it Butkellism or Social Democracy, there are times when it seems like the election has been between John Jackson and Jack Johnson.
Indeed, plural democracy is or should be the ideal with a number of competing ideologies and visions on offer and democratic discourse should be about hearing as many different views as possible.
The test of democracy is how these ideologies respond to criticism. In an ideal world, you get debate and argument but too often it seems the response to criticism is insult, abuse and an active attempt to close down the criticiser. The line between democracy and authoritarianism can be defined by the extent to which dissent is encouraged or tolerated but we've moved from what the State tolerates to what individuals seem able or willing to accept and it's all too easy now to run away to an echo chamber where you only hear what you want to hear.
Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested.
Argent, a pill bottle affronty proper and a condom used proper in bend sinister; for supporters, two taxi drivers of Albanian aspect proper, vested in sable jackets and caps, each standing guardant. Upon a scroll below the shield, 'Rectus Dixeram'.
The land's sharp features seemed to be
The Century's corpse outleant,
His crypt the cloudy canopy,
The wind his death-lament.
The ancient pulse of germ and birth
Was shrunken hard and dry,
And every spirit upon earth
Seemed fervourless as I.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c70kjr9wjw0t
Ive enough Wuffinga in me to take up the crown.
Their concept.
Tories nicked it and moved it to London
It would have been far more accessible and popular in Birmingham
Innocent face.
'We do, that's why we're arresting you.'
Publicly, it will be all about maximising the Conservative vote but as we know what leaders say before the votes are cast and what they do once they are counted aren't always the same.
Davey faces a similar dilemma - would he support a minority second term Labour Government with Confidence & Supply?
Both Badenoch and Davey could come out before the election and say they will neither support a Reform minority nor a Labour minority but the charge then will be, as it would have for Clegg in 2010, to have been to cause chaos in the name of self indulgence.
The test would then be whether either or both would vote down a Reform or Labour Queen's Speech and trigger a second election - I suspect they'd get little thanks from the public for that.
Tactical voting may be more influential at the election after next, particularly if it follows on fairly rapidly if the next election results in a hung Parliament.
Great move
A real achiever who delivers.
Breaks the men's CLUB mantra
Excellent service and widely respected by successive Tory Governments
Let's cut the bullshit of a few mysoginst old duffers who have tried to smear her. If the Right Wing media attack her there will be hundreds of positive quotes from previous Tory Ministers she's worked for.
A fat, shaven header football fan, beer can in hand, pissing on the “memorial” would be obligatory, Shirley?