The regime is now so steeped in blood that it cannot realistically relent in its pogroms against its own people. The consequence of losing its grip would be too grim; the score-settling too bloody. Every mosque will likely end up a smoking ruin. There'll surely be no velvet revolution, more likely to be the French Revolution with a Persian twist.
I think it's now possible to say that the calls from Iranian protesters for Trump to intervene were a sign of the weakness of the Iranian opposition. They have no organisation, no plan, no leader to follow to help them topple the regime, and so they appealed to external intervention to deliver them from tyranny.
That's not going to happen, so the tyranny will continue until the regime itself falls apart, which would seem to be possible only if it runs out of money to pay the IRGC.
Trump's only interested in his cut of the oil revenue, so I'm sure there's a deal to be done there that would entrench the regime until the global market for oil collapses.
Just listening to Andy Burnham at the resolution foundation and he is without doubt the leader labour need
I am surprised how much I agree with his policies
If labour want to win they need to find a way for Burnham into parliament
Does he still want to borrow an extra £40bn and to tell the bond markets to go swivel if they don't like it?
He's the mirror image of Liz Truss.
He did address the bond markets and recognized they are important
He's not saying that taxes need to go up to pay for his spending wishes, or to reduce Britain's dependency on the bond markets.
If he won't even mention the word tax then I fail to see how he can deliver on anything else he has said. So he's either intending to borrow more and cross his fingers and hope for the best, or no different to the current lot, in putting up taxes that he hopes people won't notice, but not by enough to get anything useful done.
His success in Manchester comes from business investment which should be the model
Sadly the North East Mayor lacks that vision.
This is what Andy Burnham does and take the train into Manchester and see the building
And labour supporters on here dismiss him when he is the answer
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
They have been weirdly hesitant and frit. Boris was similar with his majority.
I do and I am both surprised and disappointed that he has not had the Epstein treatment yet. It would solve a lot of KC3's problems because he's going to get "Epstein" shouted at him wherever he goes now until the cancer finally kicks the shit out of him.
They're probably scarred by the last time they tried this, when they offed Diana, and suddenly the nation went into paroxysms of prayerful sorrow
If *something happens* to a kind, sweet, much-loved ex Prince like Andrew, similar waves of grief will convulse the realm, the swans of the Cam will be seen to weep as blind old nuns wail in Windsor Great Park, destabilising the crown even more
It would be a struggle, but we are Englishmen, and I think we could bear our grief manfully, if Andrew passed away.
You say that, but would we show such fortitude, if this horror really happened?
Imagine it, Andrew, the sweet beloved Prince Andrew - with his affable smile and humble charm, that piercing intelligence and decorous self awareness - snatched away from us, in the prime of his blesssed life? Snuffed out like a candle, leaving us with the darkness of his absence, which can never be filled?
I don't know. Just thinking about it is desolating
What prompted this fellow feeling ?
BTW you were asking for TV recommendations; have you tried Wonder Man ? First couple of episodes are promising, and Ben Kingsley (I've never really been a huge fan) is superb. Silly but very entertaining.
I will have a look, ta
I can strongly recommend The North Water (if I haven't recommended it already). A brilliantly bleak period drama about a surgeon on a whaling boat out of Hull in about 1850. Relentlessly grim. Nothing really happens, it's just an endless parade of sodomy, rum, scurvy, blubber, ice caps, flensing and death. It's superb
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
I think Labour MPs are in serious danger of thinking that them pretending to support Starmer becomes public endorsement by osmosis. They wouldn't be the first beleaguered party to make that mistake.
I take your point. But actually, if Labour MPs, and ministers, could all shut the fuck up for a few months, stop gossiping to what is a largely hostile press, stop tweeting nonsense, and get on with supporting the government's agenda, I think it could make a difference to public perceptions. Divided parties rarely do well.
Very true. But the likelihood of multiple ambitions of elevation dying in the face of catastrophic polling is low Even in better times the schemers scheme.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
Major had years of non-stop growth. It did him very little good.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
Major had years of non-stop growth. It did him very little good.
Yes he ran a tired government. This one is tired too.
The regime is now so steeped in blood that it cannot realistically relent in its pogroms against its own people. The consequence of losing its grip would be too grim; the score-settling too bloody. Every mosque will likely end up a smoking ruin. There'll surely be no velvet revolution, more likely to be the French Revolution with a Persian twist.
I think it's now possible to say that the calls from Iranian protesters for Trump to intervene were a sign of the weakness of the Iranian opposition. They have no organisation, no plan, no leader to follow to help them topple the regime, and so they appealed to external intervention to deliver them from tyranny.
That's not going to happen, so the tyranny will continue until the regime itself falls apart, which would seem to be possible only if it runs out of money to pay the IRGC.
Trump's only interested in his cut of the oil revenue, so I'm sure there's a deal to be done there that would entrench the regime until the global market for oil collapses.
Trump’s saying “help is on its way”, before leaving them to twist in the wind was typically cynical.
The only hope for Iran is if enough of the armed forces switch, like Romania in 1989.
Unfortunately, the bastards in charge are not the Shah, who was dying in 1978, and lost his grip accordingly.
Something else to applaud from the Government that is allegedly paralysed and doing nothing.
It might be a necessary short-term measure, but it's not actually doing anything to fix local government funding or SEND provision.
And where does the £5bn come from, less than three months after the budget?
Reading the article, the funding will revert to central Government in 2028.
Unfortunately, the SEN debate has become poisoned by those who assert a lot of the referrals are unnecessary and parents are "playing the system". I'm sure that's true in some instances but not widely - the surge in referrals has many causes which we can all list but this has left gaps in qualified teachers and specialist teaching accommodation.
The Schools White Paper wll be the next key document in ascertaining where Government policy is going on this and you'd better believe it will be as eagerly read in Finance departments as Education departments in most councils.
The fundamental issue is to invest at the front door not the back door
It is imperative that full face to face diagnosis of every case historic and new is funded.
There is the Education cost and how we better provide for it going forwards. We also need to lay down criteria for initial and ongoing assessment.
Then the elephant in the room that we simply cannot allow 20% of children to be diagnosed in the first place and then join a second Boris Wave that will be far more series to our society and that is the Tory doping of millions of potential NEET underclass for life
A criminal policy and waste that the Tory Party need to be held screaming and kicking accountable for.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
They have been weirdly hesitant and frit. Boris was similar with his majority.
shit system where a third of the vote gets you a 174 majority, system well broken
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
Major had years of non-stop growth. It did him very little good.
Yes he ran a tired government. This one is tired too.
This one isn’t tired, it’s just meh.
To be honest I can’t actually work out what the best description is.
It’s more that it’s unplanned because they didn’t arrive with any aims, vision or plan.
I do and I am both surprised and disappointed that he has not had the Epstein treatment yet. It would solve a lot of KC3's problems because he's going to get "Epstein" shouted at him wherever he goes now until the cancer finally kicks the shit out of him.
They're probably scarred by the last time they tried this, when they offed Diana, and suddenly the nation went into paroxysms of prayerful sorrow
If *something happens* to a kind, sweet, much-loved ex Prince like Andrew, similar waves of grief will convulse the realm, the swans of the Cam will be seen to weep as blind old nuns wail in Windsor Great Park, destabilising the crown even more
It would be a struggle, but we are Englishmen, and I think we could bear our grief manfully, if Andrew passed away.
You say that, but would we show such fortitude, if this horror really happened?
Imagine it, Andrew, the sweet beloved Prince Andrew - with his affable smile and humble charm, that piercing intelligence and decorous self awareness - snatched away from us, in the prime of his blesssed life? Snuffed out like a candle, leaving us with the darkness of his absence, which can never be filled?
I don't know. Just thinking about it is desolating
What prompted this fellow feeling ?
BTW you were asking for TV recommendations; have you tried Wonder Man ? First couple of episodes are promising, and Ben Kingsley (I've never really been a huge fan) is superb. Silly but very entertaining.
I will have a look, ta
I can strongly recommend The North Water (if I haven't recommended it already). A brilliantly bleak period drama about a surgeon on a whaling boat out of Hull in about 1850. Relentlessly grim. Nothing really happens, it's just an endless parade of sodomy, rum, scurvy, blubber, ice caps, flensing and death. It's superb
Lovely word, "flensing".
I used to have a boss who liked to say "smite" or "smote" just for the sound of the thing.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
The BoE have just lowered their 2026 growth prediction from 1.2% to 0.9%
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
Exactly, we ( workers& taxpayers) are paying through the nose for miniscule growth
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
I wouldn’t say KPMG was glowing.
However the recent PMI was the best for 17 months so that is promising.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
Major had years of non-stop growth. It did him very little good.
Yes he ran a tired government. This one is tired too.
This one isn’t tired, it’s just meh.
To be honest I can’t actually work out what the best description is.
It’s more that it’s unplanned because they didn’t arrive with any aims, vision or plan.
Yet they supposedly hired the likes of Sue Gray to make sure they were ready for govt when they took office.
They’re finding out not being the Tories isn’t enough.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
Forecasts butter no parsnips. I'd wait to celebrate until there's something positive that's actually happened.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
Well any growth is suddenly an achievement, but were being taken for fools. Growth of around 1 % is nothing to shout about historically its been in the 2-3% mark, so this is thin gruel. Add in the hit everyone is having to take on tax and other charges and nobody will be feeling were live in boom times.
The days of significant growth are not coming back I fear. Indeed, now some have reacted by denigrating the very idea.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
Forecasts butter no parsnips. I'd wait to celebrate until there's something positive that's actually happened.
Indeed. However the one positive I’d take would be the recent PMI numbers. Highest for 17 months.
KPMG only sees 2027 getting back to 2025 levels after a poor 2026
Not happy with Starmer. He's clinging on like a Boris Johnson tribute act.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
Or extend it to cover Burnham. Safer bet.
I already have nothing but contempt for Burnham, but the more bellyaching he does about everyone else the more they are cleansed. It works like the victim of a Boris Johnson puff piece in the Mail, virginity restored by the end of the article.
Pochin and mini-me Farage Jack Anderton* tried to invite themselves to the Politics Society at Bangor, who said "Nope. We don't like racists like you." An opinion that they are free to hold and express, but apparently not in Pochin-world.
Pochin is now maundering on about "suppression of free speech", about which she does not have a clue afaics. She is entirely free to book a room and make her speech, but she wants the right to impose herself on unwilling fora. Prof James Orr is also apparently quite cross.
* We had a conversation about Jack Anderton several months ago when he faceplanted on his blog. He's Nigel's SM adviser, who runs his Instagram. Last summer Jack was demanding that the UK recover some of our colonies and walk away from Ukraine, and praising the policies of the President of El Salvador. He does not seem to be aware of the cost of colonies. IMO he is a bit of a numpty.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Utility companies seem to uniformly provide a terrible service and act affronted when people complain, so im not surprised. I've never seen such incompetence as from British Gas, and that's saying something.
Something else to applaud from the Government that is allegedly paralysed and doing nothing.
God. You’re so dull. Say something else other than ramping your preferred team. You’re worse than CHB.
Oh dear
95% tory media fail to acknowledge any Labour success.
Of course, Labour could try having successes that weren't so tiny they required an electron microscope to view them.
That is a fair point. But remember Conservative redemption for austerity, Brexit, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss has to be earned, and becoming a Nigel Farage and Reform tribute band doesn't redeem anyone.
I've been busy this morning attending an excellent talk on a little known but apparently highly productive fossil bed in Wales. Fascinating.
On other issues, I'm somewhat puzzled by the apparent, according to the Beeb, fact that the Epstein files are laden with 'facts' about the British Government and Royal Family as opposed to innumerable bits of information about American financiers and politicians. Seems to me all they show is that Peter Mandelson was a Lord of the Dark Arts and AMW a remarkably silly boy who put his own, and his ex-wife's, financial interests before his duty to his country, If Keir Starmer has done anything, it seems to me, it was bringing Mandelson back into an important position, and it's also pretty obvious that Mandelson's idea of the truth wouldn't be recognised elsewhere.
And Sawar had best look for a job on Rockall if he wants to advance his political career.
Not happy with Starmer. He's clinging on like a Boris Johnson tribute act.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
I don't believe he is. Labour looked around and realised they were facing the abyss. Furthermore they were in danger of falling apart and that might have led to Farage.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Far be it for me to blow the trumpet for Kemi and the Tories but they remain more relevant than Mr Irrelevant himself, Dominic Cummings.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
Pochin and mini-me Farage Jack Anderton* tried to invite themselves to the Politics Society at Bangor, who said "Nope. We don't like racists like you." An opinion that they are free to hold and express, but apparently not in Pochin-world.
Pochin is now maundering on about "suppression of free speech", about which she does not have a clue afaics. She is entirely free to book a room and make her speech, but she wants the right to impose herself on unwilling fora. Prof James Orr is also apparently quite cross.
* We had a conversation about Jack Anderton several months ago when he faceplanted on his blog. He's Nigel's SM adviser...
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
If only Dominic had been in a position to do anything about this stuff.
(Please tell me that McSweeney isn't going to have a similar ghostly afterlife.)
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
So this is news to me. In the lead up to the 2018 Brazilian election, Jair Bolsonaro claimed he was not working with Steve Bannon. It turns out he was working with both Bannon AND Jeffrey Epstein. https://x.com/broderick/status/2020900627988021624
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
Not happy with Starmer. He's clinging on like a Boris Johnson tribute act.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
Or extend it to cover Burnham. Safer bet.
I already have nothing but contempt for Burnham, but the more bellyaching he does about everyone else the more they are cleansed. It works like the victim of a Boris Johnson puff piece in the Mail, virginity restored by the end of the article.
I’ve just been watching Burnham on BBC World Live - or whatever it is out here in BKK
My overwhelming takeaway was, Jeez, is THIS the king over the water, the dauphin in the north? This effeminate, stuttering, insubstantial man, with no original thoughts?
He’s almost as dull as Skyr. And about as inspiring as Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband. What a desperate bus load of mediocrities. Likewise the Tories
No wonder Farage is cleaning up. He’s ten times better at politics than any of them, and actually speaks with some passion and eloquence, on stuff that matters. The rest of them just stand there, looking scared
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
'Swing voters' who ignore parties. Ok, Dom There are people no longer prepared to listen to the Tories. They are not swing voters . Unless we now put our swings against brick walls
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
Forecasts butter no parsnips. I'd wait to celebrate until there's something positive that's actually happened.
Indeed. However the one positive I’d take would be the recent PMI numbers. Highest for 17 months.
KPMG only sees 2027 getting back to 2025 levels after a poor 2026
There's been a collapse in business investment, reportedly due to all the uncertainty created by Trump with tariffs and threats relating to Greenland, etc, so it's no surprise that the economic figures will be poor.
What should be more concerning for the government is the lack of progress in the things more directly under their control - housebuilding, NHS, justice system, etc.
What are the good news stories for the government? Not in terms of money pledged to fix an issue, but in outcomes that have materially improved?
There's been a small improvement in NHS waiting lists.
Pochin and mini-me Farage Jack Anderton* tried to invite themselves to the Politics Society at Bangor, who said "Nope. We don't like racists like you." An opinion that they are free to hold and express, but apparently not in Pochin-world.
Pochin is now maundering on about "suppression of free speech", about which she does not have a clue afaics. She is entirely free to book a room and make her speech, but she wants the right to impose herself on unwilling fora. Prof James Orr is also apparently quite cross.
* We had a conversation about Jack Anderton several months ago when he faceplanted on his blog. He's Nigel's SM adviser...
Not happy with Starmer. He's clinging on like a Boris Johnson tribute act.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
Or extend it to cover Burnham. Safer bet.
I already have nothing but contempt for Burnham, but the more bellyaching he does about everyone else the more they are cleansed. It works like the victim of a Boris Johnson puff piece in the Mail, virginity restored by the end of the article.
I’ve just been watching Burnham on BBC World Live - or whatever it is out here in BKK
My overwhelming takeaway was, Jeez, is THIS the king over the water, the dauphin in the north? This effeminate, stuttering, insubstantial man, with no original thoughts?
He’s almost as dull as Skyr. And about as inspiring as Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband. What a desperate bus load of mediocrities. Likewise the Tories
No wonder Farage is cleaning up. He’s ten times better at politics than any of them, and actually speaks with some passion and eloquence, on stuff that matters. The rest of them just stand there, looking scared
The much hyped Al Carns was on the radio this morning. He has the son of toolmaker tick, every answer was well when I was in the army, we would / wouldn't do x.....did I tell you when I was in the army....
He didn't exactly smash it out the park under what was quite gentle questioning, nothing like what you would get as PM.
So this is news to me. In the lead up to the 2018 Brazilian election, Jair Bolsonaro claimed he was not working with Steve Bannon. It turns out he was working with both Bannon AND Jeffrey Epstein. https://x.com/broderick/status/2020900627988021624
What a surprise.
You mean it turns out that Bannon is a braggart who goes around pretending he's the power behind the throne while he gets ignored by everyone.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
Dominic: So, Dominic, what do you think about Westminster?
Dominic: Well, Dominic, I think it is a terrible place full of idiots. Dominic: I think the same Dominic. Dominic: What about the other 8 Dominics? Dominics: Yes, we all think the same too. Terrible isn't it. We would do a much better job.
Not happy with Starmer. He's clinging on like a Boris Johnson tribute act.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
I don't believe he is. Labour looked around and realised they were facing the abyss. Furthermore they were in danger of falling apart and that might have led to Farage.
Farage is currently in the box seat. The most despised Prime Minister in the history of polling isn't likely to turn that around. Now that accolade isn't entirely his fault it is partially a narrative crafted by hacks over the last six years, but the inertia, the poor communications and putting out policy unfit for purpose that requires a U turn is entirely his fault.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
If only Dominic had been in a position to do anything about this stuff.
(Please tell me that McSweeney isn't going to have a similar ghostly afterlife.)
Cummings has an afterlife because he preaches to a certain right-wing choir. I'm not sure that McSweeney has the same audience.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
Dominic: So, Dominic, what do you think about Westminster?
Dominic: Well, Dominic, I think it is a terrible place full of idiots. Dominic: I think the same Dominic. Dominic: What about the other 8 Dominics? Dominics: Yes, we all think the same too. Terrible isn't it. We would do a much better job.
Merlin Strategy, who were commissioned to carry the poll out are a member of the BPC.
They have carried out polls for a diverse range of organisations.
Pochin and mini-me Farage Jack Anderton* tried to invite themselves to the Politics Society at Bangor, who said "Nope. We don't like racists like you." An opinion that they are free to hold and express, but apparently not in Pochin-world.
Pochin is now maundering on about "suppression of free speech", about which she does not have a clue afaics. She is entirely free to book a room and make her speech, but she wants the right to impose herself on unwilling fora. Prof James Orr is also apparently quite cross.
* We had a conversation about Jack Anderton several months ago when he faceplanted on his blog. He's Nigel's SM adviser...
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
Dominic: So, Dominic, what do you think about Westminster?
Dominic: Well, Dominic, I think it is a terrible place full of idiots. Dominic: I think the same Dominic. Dominic: What about the other 8 Dominics? Dominics: Yes, we all think the same too. Terrible isn't it. We would do a much better job.
Without numbers, demographics, who agreed with the selected quotes etc its all irrelevant. More in Common and Ashcroft say who they are talking to and where. Usually specifuc groups (Con to Lab switchers from 2024 in Tamworth or some such) If Merlin produce a proper report on it, fair enough, but this is just Dom cherry picking.... 'they hate.....' who does? How many?
Not happy with Starmer. He's clinging on like a Boris Johnson tribute act.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
I don't believe he is. Labour looked around and realised they were facing the abyss. Furthermore they were in danger of falling apart and that might have led to Farage.
Farage is currently in the box seat. The most despised Prime Minister in the history of polling isn't likely to turn that around. Now that accolade isn't entirely his fault it is partially a narrative crafted by hacks over the last six years, but the inertia, the poor communications and putting out policy unfit for purpose that requires a U turn is entirely his fault.
You’d think that but his big announcement yesterday. Stop work from home. What’s it to do with him ?
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
If only Dominic had been in a position to do anything about this stuff.
(Please tell me that McSweeney isn't going to have a similar ghostly afterlife.)
Cummings has an afterlife because he preaches to a certain right-wing choir. I'm not sure that McSweeney has the same audience.
Cummings has an “afterlife” because he’s proved he has an acute political brain. He won Brexit. Without him, no Brexit. He won Boris a sizeable majority (then Boris blew it)
The stupid centrist dorks on here dislike his views and his backstory, intensely, so they feign to dismiss him as irrelevant. It’s kinda pitiful
I see this more and more, across politics and culture. People choosing what is emotionally consoling but wrong over difficult and awkward truths. It must be an ancient human trait, but I am sure it is getting worse, as we get stupider
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
Forecasts butter no parsnips. I'd wait to celebrate until there's something positive that's actually happened.
Indeed. However the one positive I’d take would be the recent PMI numbers. Highest for 17 months.
KPMG only sees 2027 getting back to 2025 levels after a poor 2026
There's been a collapse in business investment, reportedly due to all the uncertainty created by Trump with tariffs and threats relating to Greenland, etc, so it's no surprise that the economic figures will be poor.
What should be more concerning for the government is the lack of progress in the things more directly under their control - housebuilding, NHS, justice system, etc.
What are the good news stories for the government? Not in terms of money pledged to fix an issue, but in outcomes that have materially improved?
There's been a small improvement in NHS waiting lists.
I can't think of anything else.
I suppose the passing of the Assisted Dying Act will improve NHS waiting lists quite a bit. Not sure whether that will count as good news or bad news.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
Forecasts butter no parsnips. I'd wait to celebrate until there's something positive that's actually happened.
Indeed. However the one positive I’d take would be the recent PMI numbers. Highest for 17 months.
KPMG only sees 2027 getting back to 2025 levels after a poor 2026
There's been a collapse in business investment, reportedly due to all the uncertainty created by Trump with tariffs and threats relating to Greenland, etc, so it's no surprise that the economic figures will be poor.
What should be more concerning for the government is the lack of progress in the things more directly under their control - housebuilding, NHS, justice system, etc.
What are the good news stories for the government? Not in terms of money pledged to fix an issue, but in outcomes that have materially improved?
There's been a small improvement in NHS waiting lists.
I can't think of anything else.
I suppose the passing of the Assisted Dying Act will improve NHS waiting lists quite a bit. Not sure whether that will count as good news or bad news.
I suspect for money grubbing relatives the champagne corks will be popping and cruises will be being booked.
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
Dominic: So, Dominic, what do you think about Westminster?
Dominic: Well, Dominic, I think it is a terrible place full of idiots. Dominic: I think the same Dominic. Dominic: What about the other 8 Dominics? Dominics: Yes, we all think the same too. Terrible isn't it. We would do a much better job.
Without numbers, demographics, who agreed with the selected quotes etc its all irrelevant. More in Common and Ashcroft say who they are talking to and where. Usually specifuc groups (Con to Lab switchers from 2024 in Tamworth or some such) If Merlin produce a proper report on it, fair enough, but this is just Dom cherry picking.... 'they hate.....' who does? How many?
Exactly. There's mostly anecdote in Dom's rant.
I'm quite sure these sentiments are from real people but how many and who?
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
If only Dominic had been in a position to do anything about this stuff.
(Please tell me that McSweeney isn't going to have a similar ghostly afterlife.)
Cummings has an afterlife because he preaches to a certain right-wing choir. I'm not sure that McSweeney has the same audience.
Cummings has an “afterlife” because he’s proved he has an acute political brain. He won Brexit. Without him, no Brexit. He won Boris a sizeable majority (then Boris blew it)
The stupid centrist dorks on here dislike his views and his backstory, intensely, so they feign to dismiss him as irrelevant. It’s kinda pitiful
I see this more and more, across politics and culture. People choosing what is emotionally consoling but wrong over difficult and awkward truths. It must be an ancient human trait, but I am sure it is getting worse, as we get stupider
People feel challenged by the message so easier to condemn the messenger.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Some commentators, and not just pro Labour ones, are talking about green shoots in the economy and the potential to get away from the anaemic growth. So there is that. But inflation looks sticky to me.
I think it is highly unlikely Labour come back from this. They are just not appearing as competent.
"Time Wounds All Heels" - a cobbler once told me.
Three years is a political eternity and so much of it is about perceptions. The other thing is people will feel things are getting better when they aren't getting worse.
It was also interesting to see the consumer confidence numbers - the core of Reform and Conservative voters continue to be depressed while younger consumers are much more optimistic.
Labour will be hoping a) the sense of optimism moves up the demographic pyramid and b) when the time comes the younger voters will eschew the pessimism of Reform and Conservative for something more optimistic.
The regime is now so steeped in blood that it cannot realistically relent in its pogroms against its own people. The consequence of losing its grip would be too grim; the score-settling too bloody. Every mosque will likely end up a smoking ruin. There'll surely be no velvet revolution, more likely to be the French Revolution with a Persian twist.
I think it's now possible to say that the calls from Iranian protesters for Trump to intervene were a sign of the weakness of the Iranian opposition. They have no organisation, no plan, no leader to follow to help them topple the regime, and so they appealed to external intervention to deliver them from tyranny.
That's not going to happen, so the tyranny will continue until the regime itself falls apart, which would seem to be possible only if it runs out of money to pay the IRGC.
Trump's only interested in his cut of the oil revenue, so I'm sure there's a deal to be done there that would entrench the regime until the global market for oil collapses.
If the Iranian regime gave Trump 3% of their oil revenues, I'm sure he'd be happy to support them.
Immigration falls in salience to its lowest since early 2025 with YG. If this continues in to May one of the key Reform vote drivers is reduced. In that case I'd expect it to hobble theor progress most in London where their advance will be most marginal. A bad night for reform? Failing to tale Bexley with majoroty would probably fill that descriptor
Under the surface, Labour is doing fine. That’s why a new leader will lead the polls in my view.
Labour will be seen in 12 months as being very successful in stability and turning around the decline.
I've always believed Starmer would either hand over before a 2029 election or shortly after, I've no reason to change opinion on that.
Reform have hit peak. the Tories remain in decline, the LD are close to the peak of their reach, the Greens are emerging but as a left wing party that no longer even pretends to consider the environment, under Polanski.
Ed Miliband is actually greener and more focused on the Environment than any Green
Once all of that filters through there is a chance for Labour to get a 2nd term, with a younger leader.
This smells like wishful thinking with nothing to back it up
Plenty of data to back it up Take the blinkers off
enumerate, then
Try
Deutsche Bank KPMG DMS Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
Forecasts butter no parsnips. I'd wait to celebrate until there's something positive that's actually happened.
Ah, yes, like the song by popular beat combo Wet Leg.
Is your parsnip buttered? Would you like us to assign someone to butter your parsnip? Excuse me (what?) Excuse me (what?) Hey you, over there On the chaise longue in your underwear What are you doing sitting down? You should be horizontal now
Did anyone see this rather bizarre interjection from a possibly well refreshed Helena Kennedy on Newsnight last night. With the passive aggressive arm grabbing of Matt Vickers too. Not sure that’s excusable but he doesn’t seem too fussed.
Bizarre.
When all Labour have is ‘but Liz Truss’ that is a barrel being well and truly scraped. Like the Tories bringing up Liam Byrne’s letter.
Comments
That's not going to happen, so the tyranny will continue until the regime itself falls apart, which would seem to be possible only if it runs out of money to pay the IRGC.
Trump's only interested in his cut of the oil revenue, so I'm sure there's a deal to be done there that would entrench the regime until the global market for oil collapses.
Street and now Richard Parker are doing the same in Birmingham with billions of inward foreign investment in to sport, culture and the arts
I think that's Burnhams area, his niche and what he's best at.
There is significant inward investment in to the UK due to national and local Labour policies.
*We really do need some proper GenZ polling.
Even in better times the schemers scheme.
Wes Streeting has confessed that his government broke the law on Gaza.
He didn't mean to - but that's what he has done.
The only hope for Iran is if enough of the armed forces switch, like Romania in 1989.
Unfortunately, the bastards in charge are not the Shah, who was dying in 1978, and lost his grip accordingly.
USA outfits a nice reference to Sarwar’s enthusiasm for the USA.
https://x.com/neilsocialist/status/2021196278798090520?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
It is imperative that full face to face diagnosis of every case historic and new is funded.
There is the Education cost and how we better provide for it going forwards. We also need to lay down criteria for initial and ongoing assessment.
Then the elephant in the room that we simply cannot allow 20% of children to be diagnosed in the first place and then join a second Boris Wave that will be far more series to our society and that is the Tory doping of millions of potential NEET underclass for life
A criminal policy and waste that the Tory Party need to be held screaming and kicking accountable for.
95% tory media fail to acknowledge any Labour success.
Mind you if Burnham doesn't stop being such a whiny b**** I might have to reassess my utter contempt for Starmer.
Deutsche Bank
KPMG
DMS
Bank of England
For starters
All recent positive credible forecasts
To be honest I can’t actually work out what the best description is.
It’s more that it’s unplanned because they didn’t arrive with any aims, vision or plan.
Telegraph gives us one single example of what was in the Due Diligence report which on its own blows up Starmers defence
Popcorn for months
However the recent PMI was the best for 17 months so that is promising.
https://kpmg.com/uk/en/insights/economics/uk-economic-outlook.html
They’re finding out not being the Tories isn’t enough.
https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809
* They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.
* Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.
*They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.
*Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.
*Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.
KPMG only sees 2027 getting back to 2025 levels after a poor 2026
Pochin and mini-me Farage Jack Anderton* tried to invite themselves to the Politics Society at Bangor, who said "Nope. We don't like racists like you." An opinion that they are free to hold and express, but apparently not in Pochin-world.
Pochin is now maundering on about "suppression of free speech", about which she does not have a clue afaics. She is entirely free to book a room and make her speech, but she wants the right to impose herself on unwilling fora. Prof James Orr is also apparently quite cross.
* We had a conversation about Jack Anderton several months ago when he faceplanted on his blog. He's Nigel's SM adviser, who runs his Instagram. Last summer Jack was demanding that the UK recover some of our colonies and walk away from Ukraine, and praising the policies of the President of El Salvador. He does not seem to be aware of the cost of colonies. IMO he is a bit of a numpty.
On other issues, I'm somewhat puzzled by the apparent, according to the Beeb, fact that the Epstein files are laden with 'facts' about the British Government and Royal Family as opposed to innumerable bits of information about American financiers and politicians.
Seems to me all they show is that Peter Mandelson was a Lord of the Dark Arts and AMW a remarkably silly boy who put his own, and his ex-wife's, financial interests before his duty to his country,
If Keir Starmer has done anything, it seems to me, it was bringing Mandelson back into an important position, and it's also pretty obvious that Mandelson's idea of the truth wouldn't be recognised elsewhere.
And Sawar had best look for a job on Rockall if he wants to advance his political career.
Oh....
(Please tell me that McSweeney isn't going to have a similar ghostly afterlife.)
https://x.com/broderick/status/2020900627988021624
What a surprise.
Are you doubting their integrity.
Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.
I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)
https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
My overwhelming takeaway was, Jeez, is THIS the king over the water, the dauphin in the north? This effeminate, stuttering, insubstantial man, with no original thoughts?
He’s almost as dull as Skyr. And about as inspiring as Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband. What a desperate bus load of mediocrities. Likewise the Tories
No wonder Farage is cleaning up. He’s ten times better at politics than any of them, and actually speaks with some passion and eloquence, on stuff that matters. The rest of them just stand there, looking scared
There are people no longer prepared to listen to the Tories. They are not swing voters . Unless we now put our swings against brick walls
What should be more concerning for the government is the lack of progress in the things more directly under their control - housebuilding, NHS, justice system, etc.
What are the good news stories for the government? Not in terms of money pledged to fix an issue, but in outcomes that have materially improved?
There's been a small improvement in NHS waiting lists.
I can't think of anything else.
He didn't exactly smash it out the park under what was quite gentle questioning, nothing like what you would get as PM.
Dominic: Well, Dominic, I think it is a terrible place full of idiots.
Dominic: I think the same Dominic.
Dominic: What about the other 8 Dominics?
Dominics: Yes, we all think the same too. Terrible isn't it. We would do a much better job.
Telegraph breaking:
“Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”
This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits
They have carried out polls for a diverse range of organisations.
Are BPC members now fair game for ridicule here ?
https://www.merlinstrategy.com/home#about-us
NEW THREAD
More in Common and Ashcroft say who they are talking to and where. Usually specifuc groups (Con to Lab switchers from 2024 in Tamworth or some such)
If Merlin produce a proper report on it, fair enough, but this is just Dom cherry picking.... 'they hate.....' who does? How many?
It’s a ridiculous policy.
The stupid centrist dorks on here dislike his views and his backstory, intensely, so they feign to dismiss him as irrelevant. It’s kinda pitiful
I see this more and more, across politics and culture. People choosing what is emotionally consoling but wrong over difficult and awkward truths. It must be an ancient human trait, but I am sure it is getting worse, as we get stupider
There's more detail on Dom's substack:
https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from
I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.
In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.
(I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)
I'm quite sure these sentiments are from real people but how many and who?
Three years is a political eternity and so much of it is about perceptions. The other thing is people will feel things are getting better when they aren't getting worse.
It was also interesting to see the consumer confidence numbers - the core of Reform and Conservative voters continue to be depressed while younger consumers are much more optimistic.
Labour will be hoping a) the sense of optimism moves up the demographic pyramid and b) when the time comes the younger voters will eschew the pessimism of Reform and Conservative for something more optimistic.
Is your parsnip buttered?
Would you like us to assign someone to butter your parsnip?
Excuse me (what?)
Excuse me (what?)
Hey you, over there
On the chaise longue in your underwear
What are you doing sitting down?
You should be horizontal now