That's a fantastic poll for Labour. Well ahead of the Greens. Vote Green get Reform is the message.
FWIW I'm sceptical. But the poll with Burnham as candidate shows it wouldn't have been close. There's a serious underestimation of his polling power in GM from those who aren't in the area.
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
As per Sky
Not an Armada but powerful.enough
He has been repositing his carriers and certainly with his bases already in the area he could overpower Iran if he is minded to
He could bomb the hell out of it which is not quite the same thing. Actually conquering it would need a completely different level of effort, way beyond what the US had in the gulf wars. That is probably impossible.
Yes, bombing I suppose. All over the media for 72 hours. Trump front and centre burnishing his 'big powerful man' self-image. Job done. Move on to the next episode.
Just to say, to give some sense of my issue with this poll, note that FON put their polls on a lottery's website. Now Gorton and Denton is about 30% Muslim. Now, I'm no religious expert, but my understanding is that Islam strictly forbids gambling...
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
Well that is fine then. Who doubts that Trump always keeps his word?
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
That'd be a reasonable statement if it had any relation to the outright antipathy that Vance and Trump display for NATO, far beyong being irked Europe does not pay its way. Bluff or not militarily threatening other NATO members goes far beyond Rubio's polite 'not invested enough' comments.
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
That'd be a reasonable statement if it had any relation to the outright antipathy that Vance and Trump display for NATO, far beyong being irked Europe does not pay its way. Bluff or not militarily threatening other NATO members goes far beyond Rubio's polite 'not invested enough' comments.
Maybe there's method in the madness if being threatened by the US is the only thing that will make European NATO get truly serious.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
If they decide simply to close is that a void result?
Don't know, but a good question. But, on a serious note, that is one of the reasons for not getting involved at all in mid terms markets. Three small problems: they may not take place, they are highly likely to be subverted, I don't trust any aspect of the USA electoral equivalent of the Jockey Club.
That's a fantastic poll for Labour. Well ahead of the Greens. Vote Green get Reform is the message.
FWIW I'm sceptical. But the poll with Burnham as candidate shows it wouldn't have been close. There's a serious underestimation of his polling power in GM from those who aren't in the area.
Slightly unfair comparison, though. If you prompt for only one candidate by name, I'd expect them to be boosted in general.
(Presumably if they were really awful, that wouldn't be the case, but I wonder how awful?)
On Gorton and Denton, I've had advance sight of the main parties' pitches to the voters, focusing on the state of modern Britain, and lay them out here to help punters.
1. Vote Reform. Britain is broken. Blame the immigrants. 2. Vote Green. Britain is broken. Blame the super-rich. 3. Vote Labour. Britain isn't broken, but after 14 years of Tory rule it's not in great shape and, slowly but surely, we're going to put it right (with or without the help of A. Burnham). 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. 5. Vote Lib Dem: we're not sure whether Britain is broken or not. 6. Vote WPB: Britain is broken. Twin Gorton with Gaza.
Christ knows who's going to win out of that lot.
Delete 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. Insert 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is NOT broken, it just needs repairing.
Kemi gave that to us herself earlier today, so there was no point to you making up meaningless drivel.
If it were not broken, it wouldn't need repairing.
I think there's a difference between - this thing is not working (i.e. it is broken) and needs repairing - and something like - this thing is broken beyond repair, and so we need to vaporise it and start again.
My sense is that when Reform say that Britain is broken, they mean that the current model for how Britain is governed is broken beyond repair and needs to be replaced entirely, and so the difference is that Kemi is saying that things are not so bad that they can't be repaired within the current parameters of the system as it exists.
So it's the age old reform vs revolution argument.
Edit: and of course a further confusion is that the party in favour of revolution have called themselves Reform.
The idea of having borders that one can control is hardly a revolutionary one. Neither is ceasing the practice of penalising ones' own industries whilst hungrily importing from countries burning dirty fuels. Neither is only providing state benefits to British nationals. I don't think there's anything in Reform's core prospectus that most British people would see as illogical - most would assume much of it is already in place.
What Reform are addressing (and what the Tories were addressing until the current jolts) is the fact that we've gone so far down the road to crazy-ville that 'revolutionary' reform is needed to do what are actually very prosaic things. Britain isn't currently governable. Even Labour are finding this. If it were, why would SKS admit that he was pulling levers and nothing was happening?
Reform have got it wrong with their 'Britain is broken' phrasing though. It sounds too negative. They are actually the only ones who can be arsed to fix Britain. Everyone else has given up, and are content to kick the can down the road and hope they make enough to retire abroad. That makes Reform the optimists, not the pessimists.
Everyone can point out the problems - that's easy - but Reform are as long on diagnosis and short on treatment as were Dr Cameron's Conservatives and Dr Starmer's Labour.
I've still to hear anyone come up with a practical solution to "the boats" which will no doubt return in spring along with hayfever and speculation on what will win the Grand National. On the point of economic self harm, I'd argue the Party which was happy to see privatised industries fall into foreign ownership so that we pay more for our energy so the customers in the countries now owning our utilities can pay less has plenty for which to answer.
As for your comment on benefits, I thought it was already impossible (or difficult) for people who aren't citizens to claim benefits. Now, there is concern about benefits being paid out to people who are British citzens despite not having been born in Britain. That's a different question.
On Gorton and Denton, I've had advance sight of the main parties' pitches to the voters, focusing on the state of modern Britain, and lay them out here to help punters.
1. Vote Reform. Britain is broken. Blame the immigrants. 2. Vote Green. Britain is broken. Blame the super-rich. 3. Vote Labour. Britain isn't broken, but after 14 years of Tory rule it's not in great shape and, slowly but surely, we're going to put it right (with or without the help of A. Burnham). 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. 5. Vote Lib Dem: we're not sure whether Britain is broken or not. 6. Vote WPB: Britain is broken. Twin Gorton with Gaza.
Christ knows who's going to win out of that lot.
Delete 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. Insert 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is NOT broken, it just needs repairing.
Kemi gave that to us herself earlier today, so there was no point to you making up meaningless drivel.
If it were not broken, it wouldn't need repairing.
I think there's a difference between - this thing is not working (i.e. it is broken) and needs repairing - and something like - this thing is broken beyond repair, and so we need to vaporise it and start again.
My sense is that when Reform say that Britain is broken, they mean that the current model for how Britain is governed is broken beyond repair and needs to be replaced entirely, and so the difference is that Kemi is saying that things are not so bad that they can't be repaired within the current parameters of the system as it exists.
So it's the age old reform vs revolution argument.
Edit: and of course a further confusion is that the party in favour of revolution have called themselves Reform.
The idea of having borders that one can control is hardly a revolutionary one. Neither is ceasing the practice of penalising ones' own industries whilst hungrily importing from countries burning dirty fuels. Neither is only providing state benefits to British nationals. I don't think there's anything in Reform's core prospectus that most British people would see as illogical - most would assume much of it is already in place.
What Reform are addressing (and what the Tories were addressing until the current jolts) is the fact that we've gone so far down the road to crazy-ville that 'revolutionary' reform is needed to do what are actually very prosaic things. Britain isn't currently governable. Even Labour are finding this. If it were, why would SKS admit that he was pulling levers and nothing was happening?
Reform have got it wrong with their 'Britain is broken' phrasing though. It sounds too negative. They are actually the only ones who can be arsed to fix Britain. Everyone else has given up, and are content to kick the can down the road and hope they make enough to retire abroad. That makes Reform the optimists, not the pessimists.
Everyone can point out the problems - that's easy - but Reform are as long on diagnosis and short on treatment
I'.
This is absolutely the problem for Reform and they will need to develop policies and realistic ones at that. Opposing for the sake won’t cut it if they are genuinely a govt in waiting.
Putting names in boxes to Shadow the great offices of state is a step in the right direction but it also puts them subject to scrutiny.
Exercise some caution but the FON poll seems about right to me, after Burnham was blocked from standing Reform were always likely to take the seat from Labour.
However Reform only have a 3% lead over Labour so there is plenty of scope for the Labour candidate once picked to squeeze the 17% backing the Greens, Otherwise it now looks like a case of 'Vote Green, send Matt Goodwin to Westminster!'
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
That'd be a reasonable statement if it had any relation to the outright antipathy that Vance and Trump display for NATO, far beyong being irked Europe does not pay its way. Bluff or not militarily threatening other NATO members goes far beyond Rubio's polite 'not invested enough' comments.
Maybe there's method in the madness if being threatened by the US is the only thing that will make European NATO get truly serious.
No there isn't and that's a load of crap. Good relations are not meaningless, and throwing that away when a lot of Europe already are increasing their spending is just Trumpian cope, since getting them to increase spending and dislike you is hardly as good as increasing spending and liking you.
You may say getting Europe to like them was not getting the increase, and perhaps so, but the increases were happening without military threats, so it was still no extra gain for a lot of additional reputational cost. That's not art of the deal genius.
On Gorton and Denton, I've had advance sight of the main parties' pitches to the voters, focusing on the state of modern Britain, and lay them out here to help punters.
1. Vote Reform. Britain is broken. Blame the immigrants. 2. Vote Green. Britain is broken. Blame the super-rich. 3. Vote Labour. Britain isn't broken, but after 14 years of Tory rule it's not in great shape and, slowly but surely, we're going to put it right (with or without the help of A. Burnham). 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. 5. Vote Lib Dem: we're not sure whether Britain is broken or not. 6. Vote WPB: Britain is broken. Twin Gorton with Gaza.
Christ knows who's going to win out of that lot.
Delete 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. Insert 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is NOT broken, it just needs repairing.
Kemi gave that to us herself earlier today, so there was no point to you making up meaningless drivel.
If it were not broken, it wouldn't need repairing.
I think there's a difference between - this thing is not working (i.e. it is broken) and needs repairing - and something like - this thing is broken beyond repair, and so we need to vaporise it and start again.
My sense is that when Reform say that Britain is broken, they mean that the current model for how Britain is governed is broken beyond repair and needs to be replaced entirely, and so the difference is that Kemi is saying that things are not so bad that they can't be repaired within the current parameters of the system as it exists.
So it's the age old reform vs revolution argument.
Edit: and of course a further confusion is that the party in favour of revolution have called themselves Reform.
The idea of having borders that one can control is hardly a revolutionary one. Neither is ceasing the practice of penalising ones' own industries whilst hungrily importing from countries burning dirty fuels. Neither is only providing state benefits to British nationals. I don't think there's anything in Reform's core prospectus that most British people would see as illogical - most would assume much of it is already in place.
What Reform are addressing (and what the Tories were addressing until the current jolts) is the fact that we've gone so far down the road to crazy-ville that 'revolutionary' reform is needed to do what are actually very prosaic things. Britain isn't currently governable. Even Labour are finding this. If it were, why would SKS admit that he was pulling levers and nothing was happening?
Reform have got it wrong with their 'Britain is broken' phrasing though. It sounds too negative. They are actually the only ones who can be arsed to fix Britain. Everyone else has given up, and are content to kick the can down the road and hope they make enough to retire abroad. That makes Reform the optimists, not the pessimists.
Everyone can point out the problems - that's easy - but Reform are as long on diagnosis and short on treatment
I'.
This is absolutely the problem for Reform and they will need to develop policies and realistic ones at that. Opposing for the sake won’t cut it if they are genuinely a govt in waiting.
Putting names in boxes to Shadow the great offices of state is a step in the right direction but it also puts them subject to scrutiny.
It's perfectly reasonable at this time to point out the problems - the next election is still three years away. As we approach the poll, however, it will start to become valid to ask Farage, Tice and Jenrick what they would do and to scrutinise their manifesto commitments and plans.
I strongly suspect Farage is addicted to the Magic Money Tree (not in the same terms as Corbyn) inasmuch as his "solutions" will all involve spending with a soupcon of tax cuts and no real attempt to quantify or state what reductions to spending will be required.
Perhaps he'll claim there's no threat from Russia and we can make big cuts to defence expenditure.
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
That'd be a reasonable statement if it had any relation to the outright antipathy that Vance and Trump display for NATO, far beyong being irked Europe does not pay its way. Bluff or not militarily threatening other NATO members goes far beyond Rubio's polite 'not invested enough' comments.
Maybe there's method in the madness if being threatened by the US is the only thing that will make European NATO get truly serious.
No there isn't and that's a load of crap. Good relations are not meaningless, and throwing that away when a lot of Europe already are increasing their spending is just Trumpian cope, since getting them to increase spending and dislike you is hardly as good as increasing spending and liking you.
You may say getting Europe to like them was not getting the increase, and perhaps so, but the increases were happening without military threats, so it was still no extra gain for a lot of additional reputational cost. That's not art of the deal genius.
It's not just a question of spending. European countries need to regain the visceral will to win.
On Gorton and Denton, I've had advance sight of the main parties' pitches to the voters, focusing on the state of modern Britain, and lay them out here to help punters.
1. Vote Reform. Britain is broken. Blame the immigrants. 2. Vote Green. Britain is broken. Blame the super-rich. 3. Vote Labour. Britain isn't broken, but after 14 years of Tory rule it's not in great shape and, slowly but surely, we're going to put it right (with or without the help of A. Burnham). 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. 5. Vote Lib Dem: we're not sure whether Britain is broken or not. 6. Vote WPB: Britain is broken. Twin Gorton with Gaza.
Christ knows who's going to win out of that lot.
Delete 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. Insert 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is NOT broken, it just needs repairing.
Kemi gave that to us herself earlier today, so there was no point to you making up meaningless drivel.
If it were not broken, it wouldn't need repairing.
I think there's a difference between - this thing is not working (i.e. it is broken) and needs repairing - and something like - this thing is broken beyond repair, and so we need to vaporise it and start again.
My sense is that when Reform say that Britain is broken, they mean that the current model for how Britain is governed is broken beyond repair and needs to be replaced entirely, and so the difference is that Kemi is saying that things are not so bad that they can't be repaired within the current parameters of the system as it exists.
So it's the age old reform vs revolution argument.
Edit: and of course a further confusion is that the party in favour of revolution have called themselves Reform.
The idea of having borders that one can control is hardly a revolutionary one. Neither is ceasing the practice of penalising ones' own industries whilst hungrily importing from countries burning dirty fuels. Neither is only providing state benefits to British nationals. I don't think there's anything in Reform's core prospectus that most British people would see as illogical - most would assume much of it is already in place.
What Reform are addressing (and what the Tories were addressing until the current jolts) is the fact that we've gone so far down the road to crazy-ville that 'revolutionary' reform is needed to do what are actually very prosaic things. Britain isn't currently governable. Even Labour are finding this. If it were, why would SKS admit that he was pulling levers and nothing was happening?
Reform have got it wrong with their 'Britain is broken' phrasing though. It sounds too negative. They are actually the only ones who can be arsed to fix Britain. Everyone else has given up, and are content to kick the can down the road and hope they make enough to retire abroad. That makes Reform the optimists, not the pessimists.
Everyone can point out the problems - that's easy - but Reform are as long on diagnosis and short on treatment
I'.
This is absolutely the problem for Reform and they will need to develop policies and realistic ones at that. Opposing for the sake won’t cut it if they are genuinely a govt in waiting.
Putting names in boxes to Shadow the great offices of state is a step in the right direction but it also puts them subject to scrutiny.
It's perfectly reasonable at this time to point out the problems - the next election is still three years away. As we approach the poll, however, it will start to become valid to ask Farage, Tice and Jenrick what they would do and to scrutinise their manifesto commitments and plans.
I strongly suspect Farage is addicted to the Magic Money Tree (not in the same terms as Corbyn) inasmuch as his "solutions" will all involve spending with a soupcon of tax cuts and no real attempt to quantify or state what reductions to spending will be required.
Perhaps he'll claim there's no threat from Russia and we can make big cuts to defence expenditure.
Farage has already told us where the money will come from- Woke, Waste and Foreigners.
The interesting bit will be what happens when the WWF piggy banks turn out to be basically empty. But that's only a problem once Reform are in power.
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
Cute if you think either Trump or the Mullahs give a rats ass about Iranian civil deaths.
The evil regime is currently deliberately causing as many civil deaths as they can get away with to keep power.
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
As per Sky
Not an Armada but powerful.enough
He has been repositing his carriers and certainly with his bases already in the area he could overpower Iran if he is minded to
He could bomb the hell out of it which is not quite the same thing. Actually conquering it would need a completely different level of effort, way beyond what the US had in the gulf wars. That is probably impossible.
Yes, bombing I suppose. All over the media for 72 hours. Trump front and centre burnishing his 'big powerful man' self-image. Job done. Move on to the next episode.
Achieving what? And at what risk of escalation?
I agree though, he likes short media cycle campaigns at expense of long history book ones.
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
Cute if you think either Trump or the Mullahs give a rats ass about Iranian civil deaths.
The evil regime is currently deliberately causing as many civil deaths as they can get away with to keep power.
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
Cute if you think either Trump or the Mullahs give a rats ass about Iranian civil deaths.
The evil regime is currently deliberately causing as many civil deaths as they can get away with to keep power.
Just to say, to give some sense of my issue with this poll, note that FON put their polls on a lottery's website. Now Gorton and Denton is about 30% Muslim. Now, I'm no religious expert, but my understanding is that Islam strictly forbids gambling...
It's a well known fact that you will never see a Muslim in a casino.
Nor giving betting tips on PB.
Is PB about betting tips? I thought it was a site dedicated to discussions of the Highway Code, railways, the 2016 referendum, recipes, varieties of STV and exotic displays of angry bipolarity aimed at random bystanders. It always seemed to me that in these senses it, as my late mother would say about any gift however useless, 'fulfils a long felt want.'
Betting tips: longshot. Man U for the Premiership. The rest of the top 6 appear to gone on strike, and Man U have just started their season.
On Gorton and Denton, I've had advance sight of the main parties' pitches to the voters, focusing on the state of modern Britain, and lay them out here to help punters.
1. Vote Reform. Britain is broken. Blame the immigrants. 2. Vote Green. Britain is broken. Blame the super-rich. 3. Vote Labour. Britain isn't broken, but after 14 years of Tory rule it's not in great shape and, slowly but surely, we're going to put it right (with or without the help of A. Burnham). 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. 5. Vote Lib Dem: we're not sure whether Britain is broken or not. 6. Vote WPB: Britain is broken. Twin Gorton with Gaza.
Christ knows who's going to win out of that lot.
Delete 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly. Insert 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is NOT broken, it just needs repairing.
Kemi gave that to us herself earlier today, so there was no point to you making up meaningless drivel.
If it were not broken, it wouldn't need repairing.
I think there's a difference between - this thing is not working (i.e. it is broken) and needs repairing - and something like - this thing is broken beyond repair, and so we need to vaporise it and start again.
My sense is that when Reform say that Britain is broken, they mean that the current model for how Britain is governed is broken beyond repair and needs to be replaced entirely, and so the difference is that Kemi is saying that things are not so bad that they can't be repaired within the current parameters of the system as it exists.
So it's the age old reform vs revolution argument.
Edit: and of course a further confusion is that the party in favour of revolution have called themselves Reform.
The idea of having borders that one can control is hardly a revolutionary one. Neither is ceasing the practice of penalising ones' own industries whilst hungrily importing from countries burning dirty fuels. Neither is only providing state benefits to British nationals. I don't think there's anything in Reform's core prospectus that most British people would see as illogical - most would assume much of it is already in place.
What Reform are addressing (and what the Tories were addressing until the current jolts) is the fact that we've gone so far down the road to crazy-ville that 'revolutionary' reform is needed to do what are actually very prosaic things. Britain isn't currently governable. Even Labour are finding this. If it were, why would SKS admit that he was pulling levers and nothing was happening?
Reform have got it wrong with their 'Britain is broken' phrasing though. It sounds too negative. They are actually the only ones who can be arsed to fix Britain. Everyone else has given up, and are content to kick the can down the road and hope they make enough to retire abroad. That makes Reform the optimists, not the pessimists.
Everyone can point out the problems - that's easy - but Reform are as long on diagnosis and short on treatment
I'.
This is absolutely the problem for Reform and they will need to develop policies and realistic ones at that. Opposing for the sake won’t cut it if they are genuinely a govt in waiting.
Putting names in boxes to Shadow the great offices of state is a step in the right direction but it also puts them subject to scrutiny.
It's perfectly reasonable at this time to point out the problems - the next election is still three years away. As we approach the poll, however, it will start to become valid to ask Farage, Tice and Jenrick what they would do and to scrutinise their manifesto commitments and plans.
I strongly suspect Farage is addicted to the Magic Money Tree (not in the same terms as Corbyn) inasmuch as his "solutions" will all involve spending with a soupcon of tax cuts and no real attempt to quantify or state what reductions to spending will be required.
Perhaps he'll claim there's no threat from Russia and we can make big cuts to defence expenditure.
Farage has already told us where the money will come from- Woke, Waste and Foreigners.
The interesting bit will be what happens when the WWF piggy banks turn out to be basically empty. But that's only a problem once Reform are in power.
We’ve seen At local govt that the WWF piggy bank is empty and Reform made a hostage to fortune claiming there’d be massive savings. In govt it will be no different and the only realistic solution, as SKS and Reeves saw, slowing the rate of growth is the solution.
I still can’t get used to seeing WWF and not thinking World Wrestling Federation 😢
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
Cute if you think either Trump or the Mullahs give a rats ass about Iranian civil deaths.
The evil regime is currently deliberately causing as many civil deaths as they can get away with to keep power.
I care. They are a very cultural people. In news clips they always look so sad.
UK should have allowed them to benefit more from Iranian oil much sooner. We were very greedy.
Isn't Trump repulsive? He can't even issue threats elegantly. You end up not caring what happens as long as he loses which if he goes to war with Iran he might.
Trump doesn’t actually have a large armada sailing there.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
As per Sky
Not an Armada but powerful.enough
He has been repositing his carriers and certainly with his bases already in the area he could overpower Iran if he is minded to
He could bomb the hell out of it which is not quite the same thing. Actually conquering it would need a completely different level of effort, way beyond what the US had in the gulf wars. That is probably impossible.
Yes, bombing I suppose. All over the media for 72 hours. Trump front and centre burnishing his 'big powerful man' self-image. Job done. Move on to the next episode.
Achieving what? And at what risk of escalation?
I agree though, he likes short media cycle campaigns at expense of long history book ones.
Perhaps, perhaps not - the Grand Old Duke of York (NOT a reference to anyone called Mountbatten-Windsor) school of strategy has plenty of adherents.
IF the bombers and missiles fly, what then? It's hard not to feel an opportunity was missed a couple of weeks ago when the protests were at their height and Trump was obsessed with Venezuela and whatever deal was struck with the former Vice President over such trivialities as power and oil.
Even if you could somehow neuter the power of the theocracy (and I suspect it's more complicated than killing a few religious leaders), who is now ready to take over? 25,000 perhaps were slaughtered by the regime and that needs to be accounted for and presumably were Pahlavi to be able to return to Tehran, he could fill the vacuum but we're a long way from that.
I've suggested the end game is Pahlavi being escorted by American troops through cheering crowds to the Iranian Parliament meeting where he proclaims the dissolution of the Islamic Republic under the watchful eyes of the 82nd Airborne.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
Makes one come over all HYUFD and want to abolish Holyrood and proscribe the SNP. It's as bad as the pro-Independence propaganda churned out by the Iranian sockpuppet accounts.
I don't want to abolish Holyrood or proscribe the SNP but I do oppose indyref2 and do believe the SNP should focus on their day job, like cutting business rates for Scottish pubs
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
That'd be a reasonable statement if it had any relation to the outright antipathy that Vance and Trump display for NATO, far beyong being irked Europe does not pay its way. Bluff or not militarily threatening other NATO members goes far beyond Rubio's polite 'not invested enough' comments.
Maybe there's method in the madness if being threatened by the US is the only thing that will make European NATO get truly serious.
No there isn't and that's a load of crap. Good relations are not meaningless, and throwing that away when a lot of Europe already are increasing their spending is just Trumpian cope, since getting them to increase spending and dislike you is hardly as good as increasing spending and liking you.
You may say getting Europe to like them was not getting the increase, and perhaps so, but the increases were happening without military threats, so it was still no extra gain for a lot of additional reputational cost. That's not art of the deal genius.
It's not just a question of spending. European countries need to regain the visceral will to win.
Is this your idea of progress, William, a world composed of militarised countries all with a 'visceral will' to win?
Perhaps, perhaps not - the Grand Old Duke of York (NOT a reference to anyone called Mountbatten-Windsor) school of strategy has plenty of adherents.
IF the bombers and missiles fly, what then? It's hard not to feel an opportunity was missed a couple of weeks ago when the protests were at their height and Trump was obsessed with Venezuela and whatever deal was struck with the former Vice President over such trivialities as power and oil.
Even if you could somehow neuter the power of the theocracy (and I suspect it's more complicated than killing a few religious leaders), who is now ready to take over? 25,000 perhaps were slaughtered by the regime and that needs to be accounted for and presumably were Pahlavi to be able to return to Tehran, he could fill the vacuum but we're a long way from that.
I've suggested the end game is Pahlavi being escorted by American troops through cheering crowds to the Iranian Parliament meeting where he proclaims the dissolution of the Islamic Republic under the watchful eyes of the 82nd Airborne.
And, as with Venezuela, the USA controls the oil,and exportation and it says to nations like China ‘of course you can buy oil from here, play nice’
Have we noted this high quality contribution to the G and D by election from Rob Ford. Conclusion: tends towards Green with lots of qualifications. If looking for the punters's case against Reform winning, you will find it here. He invites his audience to take account of the fact that he and Goodwin are no longer bezzies.
If we're in a world where the Greens can swipe 4 seats in a General Election, when Labour poll 32%+ nationally - we are certainly in a world where the Greens can win a by-election like this when Labour are polling sub 15% with a non-entity candidate.
Perhaps, perhaps not - the Grand Old Duke of York (NOT a reference to anyone called Mountbatten-Windsor) school of strategy has plenty of adherents.
IF the bombers and missiles fly, what then? It's hard not to feel an opportunity was missed a couple of weeks ago when the protests were at their height and Trump was obsessed with Venezuela and whatever deal was struck with the former Vice President over such trivialities as power and oil.
Even if you could somehow neuter the power of the theocracy (and I suspect it's more complicated than killing a few religious leaders), who is now ready to take over? 25,000 perhaps were slaughtered by the regime and that needs to be accounted for and presumably were Pahlavi to be able to return to Tehran, he could fill the vacuum but we're a long way from that.
I've suggested the end game is Pahlavi being escorted by American troops through cheering crowds to the Iranian Parliament meeting where he proclaims the dissolution of the Islamic Republic under the watchful eyes of the 82nd Airborne.
That wouldn't be the end game. Merely the opening gambit. As we saw in Iraq.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
So basically Cleverly by coronation
No idea, but if Kemi carries on as she has today (see John Crace in the Guardian, who can be read fairly straight despite being very funny) it will need someone and soon.
If there is an anti-Reform feeling in the constituency the fun thing about by-elections is locals are perfectly capable of spontaneously deciding who is best place to win, even if they are starting from a much lower position than another option.
It will never not be funny to me that in some of the big LD by-election wins some people online were genuinely almost offended that the LDs pushed themselves as the best anti-Tory option in the seats when Labour had been in some cases clearly ahead at the previous GE, even when examples existed of the LDs winning in such situations before.
‘ 🚨 BREAKING: Mayor Zohran Mamdani Says New York City is Facing a “Fiscal Crisis at the Scale of the Great Recession”
“That means looking inward into savings and efficiencies. That also means raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers and the most profitable corporations.”
One thing's for sure, if in 2029 it turns out to be Labour and Tories as top two again the media is going to be really disappointed we didn't get a paradigm shift after all.
(Even if Reform and Greens massively increase their seats).
Perhaps, perhaps not - the Grand Old Duke of York (NOT a reference to anyone called Mountbatten-Windsor) school of strategy has plenty of adherents.
IF the bombers and missiles fly, what then? It's hard not to feel an opportunity was missed a couple of weeks ago when the protests were at their height and Trump was obsessed with Venezuela and whatever deal was struck with the former Vice President over such trivialities as power and oil.
Even if you could somehow neuter the power of the theocracy (and I suspect it's more complicated than killing a few religious leaders), who is now ready to take over? 25,000 perhaps were slaughtered by the regime and that needs to be accounted for and presumably were Pahlavi to be able to return to Tehran, he could fill the vacuum but we're a long way from that.
I've suggested the end game is Pahlavi being escorted by American troops through cheering crowds to the Iranian Parliament meeting where he proclaims the dissolution of the Islamic Republic under the watchful eyes of the 82nd Airborne.
That wouldn't be the end game. Merely the opening gambit. As we saw in Iraq.
@JakeSherman NEW -- SCHUMER lists Democrat asks for DHS spending bill
1) End roving patrols. Tighten warrants. coordination w local law enforcement.
2) enforce accountability. same use of force policies as local police
3) Masks off, body cameras on.
That is too much and too greedy. They deliberately want the demands to be rejected.
Compliance with the law and coordination with local police doesn’t seem… unreasonable.
And public identification of federal officers and body cams is kind of basic protection
"Please stop abusing your authority" may not be a demand which mollifies activists, even if it is more realistic as an aim (if you could trust a Trump pinky swear).
Perhaps, perhaps not - the Grand Old Duke of York (NOT a reference to anyone called Mountbatten-Windsor) school of strategy has plenty of adherents.
IF the bombers and missiles fly, what then? It's hard not to feel an opportunity was missed a couple of weeks ago when the protests were at their height and Trump was obsessed with Venezuela and whatever deal was struck with the former Vice President over such trivialities as power and oil.
Even if you could somehow neuter the power of the theocracy (and I suspect it's more complicated than killing a few religious leaders), who is now ready to take over? 25,000 perhaps were slaughtered by the regime and that needs to be accounted for and presumably were Pahlavi to be able to return to Tehran, he could fill the vacuum but we're a long way from that.
I've suggested the end game is Pahlavi being escorted by American troops through cheering crowds to the Iranian Parliament meeting where he proclaims the dissolution of the Islamic Republic under the watchful eyes of the 82nd Airborne.
That wouldn't be the end game. Merely the opening gambit. As we saw in Iraq.
I fear so and it'll be illuminating to see if anyone in Washington has thought beyond either the capture or the evisceration of Khamenei. Quite apart from the potential instability at the centre, there are huge issues at the periphery with the Kurds, the Afghans, the Pakistanis, the Azeris, the Azerbaijanis etc, etc.
One thing's for sure, if in 2029 it turns out to be Labour and Tories as top two again the media is going to be really disappointed we didn't get a paradigm shift after all.
(Even if Reform and Greens massively increase their seats).
Let's define what we mean - in 2024, the duopoly won 59% of the vote and 533 seats which didn't suggest its time was over.
Current polls have Labour-Conservative at around 40% and winning perhaps 200-220 seats (thought the vagaries of anti-Reform tactical voting might change that).
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
We have all heard about Claire on PB. Respected as spiky and punchy in interviews and debate. Superb communicator, strong and fluent at the dispatch box. Rishi Acolyte.
She's my MP so I probably hear more about her than most.
To be fair, she has spent a lot of the 18 months of opposition either on maternity, or being quite seriously ill.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
We have all heard about Claire on PB. Respected as spiky and punchy in interviews and debate. Superb communicator, strong and fluent at the dispatch box. Rishi Acolyte.
She's my MP so I probably hear more about her than most.
To be fair, she has spent a lot of the 18 months of opposition either on maternity, or being quite seriously ill.
It's good to see her back and fighting fit
I've seen Coutinho on interviews a few times on TV over the last months. I have never made it through more than a couple of minutes. She seems to me and assertionist MP (things are true because I say so) with a tenuous grip on reality. Sadly it's not rare in MPs, but there is something about Coutinho that makes me have to switch her off.
If we're in a world where the Greens can swipe 4 seats in a General Election, when Labour poll 32%+ nationally - we are certainly in a world where the Greens can win a by-election like this when Labour are polling sub 15% with a non-entity candidate.
My bet on the Greens stays.
FON have Labour lower than any other pollster nationally and the Greens higher than any other pollster, if even they have Labour ahead of the Greens in Gorton and Denton I think it is safe to say they are
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
So basically Cleverly by coronation
No idea, but if Kemi carries on as she has today (see John Crace in the Guardian, who can be read fairly straight despite being very funny) it will need someone and soon.
Kemi certainly needs to ensure the Tories are at least second in the May local and devolved elections
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
That'd be a reasonable statement if it had any relation to the outright antipathy that Vance and Trump display for NATO, far beyong being irked Europe does not pay its way. Bluff or not militarily threatening other NATO members goes far beyond Rubio's polite 'not invested enough' comments.
Rubio is the standard issue Republican trying to sane-wash the White House. If Trump sees out his term, Rubio would have a decent shot at succeeding him, but if the old man with health issues falls short, then Vance will already have his feet under the Resolute desk.
Have we noted this high quality contribution to the G and D by election from Rob Ford. Conclusion: tends towards Green with lots of qualifications. If looking for the punters's case against Reform winning, you will find it here. He invites his audience to take account of the fact that he and Goodwin are no longer bezzies.
Makes it sound like the Greens could not just win, but win comfortably. A 13% starting point from the last election, a collapse in the Labour vote to fall to them, a big Muslim/Gaza vote to target.. should be more than enough.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
So basically Cleverly by coronation
No idea, but if Kemi carries on as she has today (see John Crace in the Guardian, who can be read fairly straight despite being very funny) it will need someone and soon.
Kemi certainly needs to ensure the Tories are at least second in the May local and devolved elections
I listened to Kemi today and Crace in the Guardian must have been somewhere else
She was positive and yes she is not returning to Crace centre with his hopes of rejoining the EU
She is fine and in a hustings with Starmer Davey Farage and Polanski she would more than hold her own
Is it? The 1911 act is precisely there to stop the Lords being undemocratic.
I thought the convention was that it would only be invoked on things in the government's manifesto - to avoid parties doing radical things with no consent.
Is it? The 1911 act is precisely there to stop the Lords being undemocratic.
I thought the convention was that it would only be invoked on things in the government's manifesto - to avoid parties doing radical things with no consent.
I think you are conflating with the Salisbury convention - the lords doesn’t block manifesto commitments
Only qualm, categorising it as a South Manchester seat, when it just about creeps into the South due to the boundary changes. No, both Gorton and Denton were always East Manchester, and Ford looks from his academic neighbourhood at the bit nearest him.
I agree broadly with the conclusions, I pretty much came to this conclusion, but can also see the possibility of Reform being beaten into third place by either Green-Lab or Lab-Green.
Tory rising star @Katie_Lam_MP spotted at @KemiBadenoch speech on ‘the Future of the Conservative Party’ in Westminster this morning - putting paid to those defection rumours?
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
We have all heard about Claire on PB. Respected as spiky and punchy in interviews and debate. Superb communicator, strong and fluent at the dispatch box. Rishi Acolyte.
She's my MP so I probably hear more about her than most.
To be fair, she has spent a lot of the 18 months of opposition either on maternity, or being quite seriously ill.
Have we noted this high quality contribution to the G and D by election from Rob Ford. Conclusion: tends towards Green with lots of qualifications. If looking for the punters's case against Reform winning, you will find it here. He invites his audience to take account of the fact that he and Goodwin are no longer bezzies.
Makes it sound like the Greens could not just win, but win comfortably. A 13% starting point from the last election, a collapse in the Labour vote to fall to them, a big Muslim/Gaza vote to target.. should be more than enough.
Labour may regret the vote in Feb as opposed to, say, a date in late March when most of the students in the area will be back home for Easter break.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
We have all heard about Claire on PB. Respected as spiky and punchy in interviews and debate. Superb communicator, strong and fluent at the dispatch box. Rishi Acolyte.
Should be shadow Chancellor.
Claire Coutinho shadows Ed Miliband. Has she laid a glove on him?
Should need to. He makes a prat of himself without help.
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
The market for next Tory leader is insane. The top 6 (with Hills): Cleverley Lam - reported to be going Reform Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum Boris - not an MP Farage - not a Conservative Lowe - not a Conservative.
We have all heard about Claire on PB. Respected as spiky and punchy in interviews and debate. Superb communicator, strong and fluent at the dispatch box. Rishi Acolyte.
She's my MP so I probably hear more about her than most.
To be fair, she has spent a lot of the 18 months of opposition either on maternity, or being quite seriously ill.
Only qualm, categorising it as a South Manchester seat, when it just about creeps into the South due to the boundary changes. No, both Gorton and Denton were always East Manchester, and Ford looks from his academic neighbourhood at the bit nearest him.
I agree broadly with the conclusions, I pretty much came to this conclusion, but can also see the possibility of Reform being beaten into third place by either Green-Lab or Lab-Green.
John Crace echoing the observations some of us made earlier today:
Title: "Badenoch shoots herself in the foot on the Tories’ long march to the right. Not content with haemorrhaging MPs to Reform, Kemi decides to drive others into the arms of the Lib Dems"
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
Shams then that any US guarantee isn't worth a bucket of warm spit these days.
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
He was peaceful on the day he was murdered. Thats all that matters, his killer had no previous knowledge.
John Crace echoing the observations some of us made earlier today:
Title: "Badenoch shoots herself in the foot on the Tories’ long march to the right. Not content with haemorrhaging MPs to Reform, Kemi decides to drive others into the arms of the Lib Dems"
Kemi made a well received speech where she welcomed the new prosper input to her policies on the economy but ended speculation she may move back to a pro EU stance that some in prosper may have hoped
At present she is distancing herself from Farage but also she is not moving towards a lib dem offer
Only qualm, categorising it as a South Manchester seat, when it just about creeps into the South due to the boundary changes. No, both Gorton and Denton were always East Manchester, and Ford looks from his academic neighbourhood at the bit nearest him.
I agree broadly with the conclusions, I pretty much came to this conclusion, but can also see the possibility of Reform being beaten into third place by either Green-Lab or Lab-Green.
Denton isn't even Manchester. It's in Tameside.
Not altogether surprising on your definition since Manchester City Council is only half the size of Birmingham, in terms of population. Yet Birmingham is little more than 1/3 of the size of Greater Manchester. And no-one ever refers to the West Midlands conurbation as "Greater Birmingham", even in Birmingham.
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
Thank you William. I suppose that makes it a legitimate state execution then.
I have seen the stories that Pretti was on an ICE "kill list", presumably for spitting on an ICE guy. Stephen Miller explained that ICE agents have "full immunity" for dealing with left wing agitators.
John Crace echoing the observations some of us made earlier today:
Title: "Badenoch shoots herself in the foot on the Tories’ long march to the right. Not content with haemorrhaging MPs to Reform, Kemi decides to drive others into the arms of the Lib Dems"
Kemi made a well received speech where she welcomed the new prosper input to her policies on the economy but ended speculation she may move back to a pro EU stance that some in prosper may have hoped
At present she is distancing herself from Farage but also she is not moving towards a lib dem offer
Well received by Andy Street and Ruth Davidson. Really?
If we're in a world where the Greens can swipe 4 seats in a General Election, when Labour poll 32%+ nationally - we are certainly in a world where the Greens can win a by-election like this when Labour are polling sub 15% with a non-entity candidate.
My bet on the Greens stays.
FON have Labour lower than any other pollster nationally and the Greens higher than any other pollster, if even they have Labour ahead of the Greens in Gorton and Denton I think it is safe to say they are
No, the sample size and MoE is ridiculous and the campaign hasn't even begun.
John Crace echoing the observations some of us made earlier today:
Title: "Badenoch shoots herself in the foot on the Tories’ long march to the right. Not content with haemorrhaging MPs to Reform, Kemi decides to drive others into the arms of the Lib Dems"
Kemi made a well received speech where she welcomed the new prosper input to her policies on the economy but ended speculation she may move back to a pro EU stance that some in prosper may have hoped
At present she is distancing herself from Farage but also she is not moving towards a lib dem offer
Well received by Andy Street and Ruth Davidson. Really?
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
Deserved to have been shot eleven times for that.
William's response will be that you are exaggerating with fake news and that it was alright since it was only ten times.
Is it? The 1911 act is precisely there to stop the Lords being undemocratic.
But that's with commitments in the government's manifesto, this not a manifesto pledge, this would be as scandalous as the prorogation crisis.
The 1911Act, a mended by the Parliament Act 1949, which reduced the Lords' delaying power to one year, makes no mention of a manifesto pledge. That's just made up.
It is scandalous that the unelected body can frustrate the will of Parliament and of the large majority of voters. And it's a small minority in that unelected body that is doing the delaying.
Bari laid out her vision to all CBS News employees this morning (leaked to CNN's Brian Stelter immediately): We will no longer tell viewers what happened. We present argument and opinion about what happened. We expect that to offend many of our viewers, and we don't care. 4/
Is it? The 1911 act is precisely there to stop the Lords being undemocratic.
But that's with commitments in the government's manifesto, this not a manifesto pledge, this would be as scandalous as the prorogation crisis.
The 1911Act, a mended by the Parliament Act 1949, which reduced the Lords' delaying power to one year, makes no mention of a manifesto pledge. That's just made up.
It is scandalous that the unelected body can frustrate the will of Parliament and of the large majority of voters. And it's a small minority in that unelected body that is doing the delaying.
We're in the Salisbury-Addison convention territory now.
The public support the death penalty in certain circumstances but I'm not seeing you advocate that.
I am sure you'd be raging if a Reform government tried this kind of shithousery with the death penalty.
Comments
All do seem to show an uptick in SKS approval and down in Farage, however
Well ahead of the Greens.
Vote Green get Reform is the message.
FWIW I'm sceptical.
But the poll with Burnham as candidate shows it wouldn't have been close.
There's a serious underestimation of his polling power in GM from those who aren't in the area.
NEW!! Rubio defends the administration’s NATO policy, tells Senators that U.S. 'backstop' is the only true security guarantee for Ukraine.
Rubio: “There's a lot of talk about security guarantees, and it's something that there's general agreement about now with the case of Ukraine. But those security guarantees basically involve the deployment of a handful of European troops, primarily French, and the UK, and then a US backstop. But in fact, the security guarantee is the US backstop. It is not the — and I'm not diminishing the fact that some countries in Europe are willing to place troops in a post war Ukraine. What I'm pointing out is that is irrelevant without the US backstop and so… and the reason why you need such a strong US backstop is because our allies and our partners have not invested enough in their own defense capabilities over the last 20 or 30 years.”
(Presumably if they were really awful, that wouldn't be the case, but I wonder how awful?)
I've still to hear anyone come up with a practical solution to "the boats" which will no doubt return in spring along with hayfever and speculation on what will win the Grand National. On the point of economic self harm, I'd argue the Party which was happy to see privatised industries fall into foreign ownership so that we pay more for our energy so the customers in the countries now owning our utilities can pay less has plenty for which to answer.
As for your comment on benefits, I thought it was already impossible (or difficult) for people who aren't citizens to claim benefits. Now, there is concern about benefits being paid out to people who are British citzens despite not having been born in Britain. That's a different question.
Putting names in boxes to Shadow the great offices of state is a step in the right direction but it also puts them subject to scrutiny.
However Reform only have a 3% lead over Labour so there is plenty of scope for the Labour candidate once picked to squeeze the 17% backing the Greens, Otherwise it now looks like a case of 'Vote Green, send Matt Goodwin to Westminster!'
You may say getting Europe to like them was not getting the increase, and perhaps so, but the increases were happening without military threats, so it was still no extra gain for a lot of additional reputational cost. That's not art of the deal genius.
This one:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1qmuc3a/westminster_voting_intention_via_find_out_now/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Westminster VI across GM:
Ref 36, Lab 24, Green 18.
I strongly suspect Farage is addicted to the Magic Money Tree (not in the same terms as Corbyn) inasmuch as his "solutions" will all involve spending with a soupcon of tax cuts and no real attempt to quantify or state what reductions to spending will be required.
Perhaps he'll claim there's no threat from Russia and we can make big cuts to defence expenditure.
Lol
The interesting bit will be what happens when the WWF piggy banks turn out to be basically empty. But that's only a problem once Reform are in power.
The evil regime is currently deliberately causing as many civil deaths as they can get away with to keep power.
I agree though, he likes short media cycle campaigns at expense of long history book ones.
Betting tips: longshot. Man U for the Premiership. The rest of the top 6 appear to gone on strike, and Man U have just started their season.
I still can’t get used to seeing WWF and not thinking World Wrestling Federation 😢
UK should have allowed them to benefit more from Iranian oil much sooner. We were very greedy.
NEW -- SCHUMER lists Democrat asks for DHS spending bill
1) End roving patrols. Tighten warrants. coordination w local law enforcement.
2) enforce accountability. same use of force policies as local police
3) Masks off, body cameras on.
Perhaps, perhaps not - the Grand Old Duke of York (NOT a reference to anyone called Mountbatten-Windsor) school of strategy has plenty of adherents.
IF the bombers and missiles fly, what then? It's hard not to feel an opportunity was missed a couple of weeks ago when the protests were at their height and Trump was obsessed with Venezuela and whatever deal was struck with the former Vice President over such trivialities as power and oil.
Even if you could somehow neuter the power of the theocracy (and I suspect it's more complicated than killing a few religious leaders), who is now ready to take over? 25,000 perhaps were slaughtered by the regime and that needs to be accounted for and presumably were Pahlavi to be able to return to Tehran, he could fill the vacuum but we're a long way from that.
I've suggested the end game is Pahlavi being escorted by American troops through cheering crowds to the Iranian Parliament meeting where he proclaims the dissolution of the Islamic Republic under the watchful eyes of the 82nd Airborne.
https://swingometer.substack.com/p/the-gorton-and-denton-by-election?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1186392&post_id=185981602&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
My bet on the Greens stays.
As we saw in Iraq.
It will never not be funny to me that in some of the big LD by-election wins some people online were genuinely almost offended that the LDs pushed themselves as the best anti-Tory option in the seats when Labour had been in some cases clearly ahead at the previous GE, even when examples existed of the LDs winning in such situations before.
Greens should win !
https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/2016606566489690192?s=61
Still they get what they voted for 😀
‘ 🚨 BREAKING: Mayor Zohran Mamdani Says New York City is Facing a “Fiscal Crisis at the Scale of the Great Recession”
“That means looking inward into savings and efficiencies. That also means raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers and the most profitable corporations.”
https://x.com/thechiefnerd/status/2016573554158927874?s=61
(Even if Reform and Greens massively increase their seats).
And public identification of federal officers and body cams is kind of basic protection
This is a lie.
Even if I had ordered this, the MPLS police department would never follow an order from me.
Do better. Go fuck a couch.
https://x.com/Mayor_Frey_/status/2016575285357838774
Current polls have Labour-Conservative at around 40% and winning perhaps 200-220 seats (thought the vagaries of anti-Reform tactical voting might change that).
To be fair, she has spent a lot of the 18 months of opposition either on maternity, or being quite seriously ill.
It's good to see her back and fighting fit
Assisted dying supporters ‘to force through bill with archaic Commons procedure’
Exclusive: MPs backing bill to use ‘nuclear option’ of 1911 Parliament Act if it continues to be blocked by Lords
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jan/28/assisted-dying-supporters-to-force-through-bill-with-archaic-commons-procedure
@krassenstein
BREAKING: Music legend Bruce Springsteen just released this incredible song that will be sure to piss Trump off beyond belief.
“Streets of Minneapolis”.
He wrote this song about Alex Pretti and Renée Good Saturday and recorded it yesterday.
https://x.com/krassenstein/status/2016585991365030207
She was positive and yes she is not returning to Crace centre with his hopes of rejoining the EU
She is fine and in a hustings with Starmer Davey Farage and Polanski she would more than hold her own
I agree broadly with the conclusions, I pretty much came to this conclusion, but can also see the possibility of Reform being beaten into third place by either Green-Lab or Lab-Green.
https://x.com/anguswyatt/status/2016452446688612686?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWKSoxG1K7w
https://x.com/steveguest/status/2016610715075809552
MUST WATCH: Footage of an a man who looks like Alex Pretti with a gun in his waistband, spitting on and attacking federal law enforcement officers and kicking the tail light of their vehicle on January 13.
Bombshell report from the BBC.
Important context: Pretti was not a peaceful protester.
It's in Tameside.
Title:
"Badenoch shoots herself in the foot on the Tories’ long march to the right. Not content with haemorrhaging MPs to Reform, Kemi decides to drive others into the arms of the Lib Dems"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/28/badenoch-tories-mp-defections-march-to-the-right
Kemi made a well received speech where she welcomed the new prosper input to her policies on the economy but ended speculation she may move back to a pro EU stance that some in prosper may have hoped
At present she is distancing herself from Farage but also she is not moving towards a lib dem offer
Take back control from our unelected rulers, as someone once said.
I have seen the stories that Pretti was on an ICE "kill list", presumably for spitting on an ICE guy. Stephen Miller explained that ICE agents have "full immunity" for dealing with left wing agitators.
Don't you know how by-elections work?
Thise are basic rule of law demands.
And I should say I have joined prosper
It is scandalous that the unelected body can frustrate the will of Parliament and of the large majority of voters. And it's a small minority in that unelected body that is doing the delaying.
capitolhunters
@capitolhunters
Bari laid out her vision to all CBS News employees this morning (leaked to CNN's Brian Stelter immediately): We will no longer tell viewers what happened. We present argument and opinion about what happened. We expect that to offend many of our viewers, and we don't care. 4/
https://x.com/capitolhunters/status/2016205318158418100
The public support the death penalty in certain circumstances but I'm not seeing you advocate that.
I am sure you'd be raging if a Reform government tried this kind of shithousery with the death penalty.