Comments

• scotslass Posts: 912

  February 2015

  See you are back to your old habits Mike. You cannot have possibly missed how old this poll is. The Herald lists the fieldwork as starting on the 14th January and finishing on 2nd February!
  
  Compare that with the 21 per cent record lead in YouGov polled 29th Jan to 2nd February or the bulk of Ashcroft constituency polling eg the record swing in Dundee West polled 23rd - 30th January.
  
  The poll cannot be a blow to the SNP unless it either shows a trend which it doesn't or comapares unfavourably with other TNS polls which it doesn't. Indeed I cannot find any trace of a TNS poll which has ever shown the SNP with a double digit Westminster lead!

  0
• Dair Posts: 6,108

  February 2015

  Three week old poll is three weeks old.

  0
• MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

  February 2015

  NO posting on Rotherham allowed

  Dair said:

  Three week old poll is three weeks old.

  So it is newer now than many Scottish seat polls from Lord Ashcroft from Lord Ashcroft were when they came out. I notice you didn't complain about that with those polls.
  
  Methinks you don't like the TNS numbers and are trying to find a way to discredit them.
  
  

  0
• Dair Posts: 6,108

  February 2015 edited February 2015

  MikeSmithson said:

  NO posting on Rotherham allowed

  Dair said:

  Three week old poll is three weeks old.

  So it is newer now than many Scottish seat polls from Lord Ashcroft from Lord Ashcroft were when they came out. I notice you didn't complain about that with those polls.
  
  Methinks you don't like the TNS numbers and are trying to find a way to discredit them.
  
  

  I wasnt aware it had anything to do with Rotherham, the TNS poll in the headline is three weeks old.

  0
• MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

  February 2015 edited February 2015

  scotslass said:

  See you are back to your old habits Mike. You cannot have possibly missed how old this poll is. The Herald lists the fieldwork as starting on the 14th January and finishing on 2nd February!
  
  Compare that with the 21 per cent record lead in YouGov polled 29th Jan to 2nd February or the bulk of Ashcroft constituency polling eg the record swing in Dundee West polled 23rd - 30th January.
  
  The poll cannot be a blow to the SNP unless it either shows a trend which it doesn't or comapares unfavourably with other TNS polls which it doesn't. Indeed I cannot find any trace of a TNS poll which has ever shown the SNP with a double digit Westminster lead!

  I know you are desperate to discredit this poll which comes from a pollster, using exactly this methodology, that had some of the best outcomes for YES ahead of the IndyRef.
  
  If you had taken the trouble to read my post would have seen that I stated that there was nothing to compare it with.
  
  I notice like Dair that you didn't attack the Ashcroft single seat Scottish polls some of which were older than this one is on publication. Fieldwork for the Ashcroft Scottish polls started on Jan 5th. They were published on Feb 4th.
  
  
  
  
  

  0
• Dair Posts: 6,108

  February 2015

  MikeSmithson said:

  scotslass said:

  See you are back to your old habits Mike. You cannot have possibly missed how old this poll is. The Herald lists the fieldwork as starting on the 14th January and finishing on 2nd February!
  
  Compare that with the 21 per cent record lead in YouGov polled 29th Jan to 2nd February or the bulk of Ashcroft constituency polling eg the record swing in Dundee West polled 23rd - 30th January.
  
  The poll cannot be a blow to the SNP unless it either shows a trend which it doesn't or comapares unfavourably with other TNS polls which it doesn't. Indeed I cannot find any trace of a TNS poll which has ever shown the SNP with a double digit Westminster lead!

  I know you are desperate to discredit this poll which comes from a pollster, using exactly this methodology, that had some of the best outcomes for YES ahead of the IndyRef.
  
  If you had taken the trouble to read my post would have seen that I stated that there was nothing to compare it with.
  
  I notice like Dair that you didn't attack the Ashcroft single seat Scottish polls some of which were older than this one is on publication.
  
  
  

  The Ashcroft polls are wrong. They use 2010 weighting which we know is wrong. This benefits the areas not polled in that they might have lower SNP votes. Of course lower SNP votes will still win those seats.
  
  I posted this, on this forum, at the time of the Ashcroft thread.

  0
• asjohnstone Posts: 1,276

  February 2015

  I guess it depends on where the respondents come from from. Scottish National polling is only worth so much due to regional differences,
  
  Do we know if it's weighted by population distribution rather than just past voting record ?I'd love to see a strathclyde subsample
  
  I'm of the option that the SNP surge is real on a national basis, but much stronger in the west central belt and north east.

  0
• Dair Posts: 6,108

  February 2015

  asjohnstone said:

  I guess it depends on where the respondents come from from. Scottish National polling is only worth so much due to regional differences,
  
  Do we know if it's weighted by population distribution rather than just past voting record ?I'd love to see a strathclyde subsample
  
  I'm of the option that the SNP surge is real on a national basis, but much stronger in the west central belt and north east.

  That's pretty much what Curtice said. The Ashcroft polls seemed to say that wasn't true that the SNP surge was UNS but the Ashcroft polls were weighted by 2010 so if weighted by 2011 then it would be higher than the 48% they polled on Ashcroft.
  
  Overall the likelihood is that Ashcroft weighted by 2011 showed a higher vote in Glasgow than National polls have. But outside Glasgow, the SNP really doesn't need huge votes. 32% is guaranteed in Edinburgh West. The 41% for Salmond in Gordon is a shoe in.
  
  There is a very possible outcome in 2015. SNP 59/59.
  
  Now THATS a good bet.

  0