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History suggests it will be difficult to oust Starmer before the next election –politicalbetting.com

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  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,395
    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,462
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    1969? That jacket, those hairstyles ...
    Makes me feel all warm inside.

    The same with interior decor from the early seventies.

    None lf this bland magnolia or feature wall shite.

    Have you see the Home Alone house makeover?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,657
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    Traumatised by the square steering wheel
    I worked for the company that made them, albeit many years after. They proudly had one on display in reception.
    I was at a works jamboree in Cannes and part of it was the unveiling of the Montego with lots of smoke and lights, no connection with company but was done there for some reason , also had Lord Tonypandy as guest speaker and some famous singer I don't remember. Was some jolly to be sure.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Tim Walz, mired in scandal, confirms he won’t stand again as MN Governor.

    Get Jesse ‘The Body’ back.

    It's a "scandal" broken by "indpendent" Trump aligned investigative journalists. It would be easier work to expose Trump scandals.
    Nothing to stop anyone doing that.

    It clearly is a scandal, it has cost Walz his Governorship. Investigative journalists target politicians of all persuasions.

    MN needs Jesse ‘the Body’ Ventura back.
    Walz is still Governor, so it hasn't cost him his Governorship. He's just not standing for re-election.
    Ah, that must be it.

    He’s just standing down and exiting gracefully. 👍
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,550
    Scott_xP said:

    Russian Ambassador to the UN says that US action in Venezuela is "a harbinger of a return to an era of chaos, lawlessness and US domination by force... We hope that this banditry will be met immediately with an objective and comprehensive assessment under international law."

    https://bsky.app/profile/bestforbritain.org/post/3mbosdxiaes2g

    Okay my irony meter just died.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824
    Scott_xP said:

    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    1969? That jacket, those hairstyles ...
    Makes me feel all warm inside.

    The same with interior decor from the early seventies.

    None lf this bland magnolia or feature wall shite.

    Have you see the Home Alone house makeover?
    I feel I need to look it up.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,988
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Tim Walz, mired in scandal, confirms he won’t stand again as MN Governor.

    Get Jesse ‘The Body’ back.

    It's a "scandal" broken by "indpendent" Trump aligned investigative journalists. It would be easier work to expose Trump scandals.
    Nothing to stop anyone doing that.

    It clearly is a scandal, it has cost Walz his Governorship. Investigative journalists target politicians of all persuasions.

    MN needs Jesse ‘the Body’ Ventura back.
    Walz is still Governor, so it hasn't cost him his Governorship. He's just not standing for re-election.
    Ah, that must be it.

    He’s just standing down and exiting gracefully. 👍
    Absolutely, he's been hit by bad news and it's curtailed his career, but he's not standing down. He's still Governor for another year. He's not seeking re-election. That is slightly different. Specifically, it's being Governor for another year different.
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 390

    Now Celtic sack their manager after just 8 games

    Maresca to Celtic
    Amorim to Chelsea
    Nancy to lead Venezuela?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,530

    NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Tim Walz, mired in scandal, confirms he won’t stand again as MN Governor.

    Get Jesse ‘The Body’ back.

    It's a "scandal" broken by "indpendent" Trump aligned investigative journalists. It would be easier work to expose Trump scandals.
    Nothing to stop anyone doing that.

    It clearly is a scandal, it has cost Walz his Governorship. Investigative journalists target politicians of all persuasions.

    MN needs Jesse ‘the Body’ Ventura back.
    Walz is still Governor, so it hasn't cost him his Governorship. He's just not standing for re-election.
    Ah, that must be it.

    He’s just standing down and exiting gracefully. 👍
    Absolutely, he's been hit by bad news and it's curtailed his career, but he's not standing down. He's still Governor for another year. He's not seeking re-election. That is slightly different. Specifically, it's being Governor for another year different.
    Copium. Coming soon on the NHS.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,827
    HYUFD said:

    I have to disagree with the thread. Recent historical precedent very much suggests that Labour has thrown off the shackles and can nowadays move decisively against its leaders when the prospect of electoral defeat demands it.

    The last Labour PM to win a general election before Starmer was deposed when in office. That happened when 2 years after a general election, Labour was underwater in the polls and the incumbent's credibility was irretrievably shot with the electorate. Pretty well the same scenario as now, butwith the biggest difference being that Labour is now facing historic levels of unpopularity, far worse than it was in mid 2007. So if anything the historical precedent there understates the likelihood of Starmer being forced out by MPs who know that no change will mean that they'll be out of work. The fact that Brown was there in waiting may have contributed to Blair walking rather than waiting until he was pushed out by MPs, but I think that matters little in this context.

    The second historical precedent is the Corbyn one. Labour MPs have now shown that they are prepared to try and force out a Labour leader who won't walk. That is the precedent that matters, not the fact that Corbyn held on thanks to an unprecedented rift between the Labour MPs and the party membership. And again the difference only strengthens the precedent - this time the membership and MPs are united not disunited in looking on at horror at the electoral scenarios unfolding, which in the wake of May 2026 will be looking like an existential crisis for the whole party as well as its MPs, should nothing change.

    The only reason that a challenge to Starmer has not already manifested itself is that the multiple challengers are all waiting for the 2026 local and devolved elections to be out of the way. That is both so that they themselves can't be blamed for a premature challenge delivering disasterous results, and also because the disaster will provide a perfect pretext to act.

    I suspect it won't be as big a disaster as some predict. If Labour beat the Tories on NEV and win a few seats from the SNP (and polls show a swing still from SNP to Labour since 2021) that would be enough for Starmer to avoid a leadership challenge.

    He may well go by the next GE anyway but if he doesn't it would need Burnham back as an MP to be sure a challenge to Starmer would succeed
    It doesn't need Burnham. Were you a Labour member I think you would better appreciate just how toxic Starmer now is within his own party membership. Many of those who have not left are just staying in to vote him out, probably casting an ABS (Anyone But Starmer) preferential vote. Remember too that the electorate will extend beyond the party membership to others who are members of affiliated unions who pay the political levy, the two largest of which are now openly calling for Starmer to go and will communicate that directly and forcefully to their members.

    And I maintain that the 2026 elections will be disasterous for Labour, existentially so if the leadership is not subsequently changed. Consider this. Addressing your comparison, for the 2025 English local elections, the NEV had Labour just 1% ahead of the Conservatives and that was before the further Labour polling meltdown of the last 7 months, so I can't see Labour exceeding the Conservative NEV. But regardless Labour's concern is with being humiliated at the hands of Reform. Before going further backwards in the latest poll, Labour won only 6% of 2025 English council seats up for election, Reform won 41%. Based on current polling Labour will lose not gain seats in Scotland and end up third behind Reform, the fact that the SNP also loses some seats is immaterial. Wales will be far worse, it could be single figures in terms of Senydd seats. A complete sh**show, across the entire nation.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,279
    Carnyx said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    1969? That jacket, those hairstyles ...
    1973
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,015
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
    At least we never had the "Monstro" (FAW Lubao) which was a Maestro with surplus Montego panels nailed on the front. The Chinese government sanctions people with low social credit scores by making them drive Monstros.


  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    The Retropower one with the CF widebody and Honda B16 swap is sicc but every other Allegro is (obviously) shit.

    Been out on another car collection caper this afternoon. One owner, 42,000 mile MANUAL E38 735i with the sweet 3.5 V8. When I was on the train to Brizzle, I could hear some ******** **** boring the absolute arse off his Mrs, banging on about SMRs, HS2 and improvised curry recipes. I was tempted to ask him what his PB username was.
    Perm any one from a dozen or so.

    How many cars have you got now or is it one out one in.

    Was the owner a former company director ? Those cars used to be upper end businessman.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,279
    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
    At least we never had the "Monstro" (FAW Lubao) which was a Maestro with surplus Montego panels nailed on the front. The Chinese government sanctions people with low social credit scores by making them drive Monstros.


    I thought the Chinese effort looked better than the Maestro. One of their earlier efforts was a rebadged Marina. On that point it's surprising the Chinese didn't stick with the bicycle.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
    At least we never had the "Monstro" (FAW Lubao) which was a Maestro with surplus Montego panels nailed on the front. The Chinese government sanctions people with low social credit scores by making them drive Monstros.


    I thought the Chinese effort looked better than the Maestro. One of their earlier efforts was a rebadged Marina. On that point it's surprising the Chinese didn't stick with the bicycle.
    I’d agree, although looking better than a Maestro is a very low bar.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,015
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    The Retropower one with the CF widebody and Honda B16 swap is sicc but every other Allegro is (obviously) shit.

    Been out on another car collection caper this afternoon. One owner, 42,000 mile MANUAL E38 735i with the sweet 3.5 V8. When I was on the train to Brizzle, I could hear some ******** **** boring the absolute arse off his Mrs, banging on about SMRs, HS2 and improvised curry recipes. I was tempted to ask him what his PB username was.
    Perm any one from a dozen or so.

    How many cars have you got now or is it one out one in.
    Five permanent: R5E, 993, 996 Clubsport, Tributo, M6

    Two flips: E38 and 997.1 poverty spec Carrera (it doesn't have a single paid option on it, very weird spec and quite cool)

    The E38 was owned by the widow of some guy who had a building company. Hadn't run for seven years. New battery, pound the starter with a housebrick and away we go.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,590
    edited January 5
    Andy_JS said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Listening to the EU commission press conference they simply cannot criticise Trump providing evasive and rambling responses, even over Greenland

    Kemi, Cleverley and Honest Bob's unoquivocal condemnation (despite not being in Government yet) has been impressive by contrast.
    "A lot of noise from people who couldn’t find Venezuela on a map" seems to me to be a robust and effective response from Kemi on where Venezuela stands in respect to invasions from other countries
    I'm probably missing the point but Venezuela is one of the easier countries to find on a map.
    Trump found Venezuela on a map, or at least his minions did.

    A lot of people criticised that comment by Badenoch as characteristically aggressive towards people who have nailed their colours to their mast. I actually think Badenoch is saying the quiet part out loud. Why should we care about Venezuela? The thing about quiet parts that Badenoch doesn't get, you're not meant to say them out loud.
    Why should we care:

    Rules based international order = Global prosperity
    Rules based international order = Defence spending 2% and 3% we can use however we please

    Might is right = Increase in tensions, suspicions, rival blocks and war
    Might is right = We spend that 3% on defence instead of NHS, education, tax cuts or whatever
    Here's a question:

    What had the Rules Based International Order ever done to stop or inhibit the huge trade in illegal drugs in South/Central America and all the associated crime and misery it was responsible for?
    I think there is a big contrast between countries where there is rule of law, and no rule of law.

    For example Jamaica or Costa Rica vs Colombia or Honduras.

    There has also been significant interception at sea.

    And we should not forget deliberate encouragement of insurgents by both the USA and the USSR. For example, did Oliver North (who was never convicted) make it better or worse? (Contras were involved in drugs, as were eg Shining Path and FARC).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,279
    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
    At least we never had the "Monstro" (FAW Lubao) which was a Maestro with surplus Montego panels nailed on the front. The Chinese government sanctions people with low social credit scores by making them drive Monstros.


    I thought the Chinese effort looked better than the Maestro. One of their earlier efforts was a rebadged Marina. On that point it's surprising the Chinese didn't stick with the bicycle.
    I’d agree, although looking better than a Maestro is a very low bar.

    The Maestro with the Montego frontage looked OK. Wasn't the Maestro designed by David Bache who penned the first Range Rover?

    How it looked was the least of its worries. It certainly looked better than the Honda designed Acclaim and first generation Rover 200.

    Mini and Metro aside, it is easy to forget how bad most Austin and Morris badged cars were after the 1100/1300 hung up it's driving gloves in 1974.

    My first company car was a Morris Ital 1700 Estate in Sandglow Yellow. It really was awful.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,015

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
    At least we never had the "Monstro" (FAW Lubao) which was a Maestro with surplus Montego panels nailed on the front. The Chinese government sanctions people with low social credit scores by making them drive Monstros.


    I thought the Chinese effort looked better than the Maestro. One of their earlier efforts was a rebadged Marina. On that point it's surprising the Chinese didn't stick with the bicycle.
    I’d agree, although looking better than a Maestro is a very low bar.

    The Maestro with the Montego frontage looked OK. Wasn't the Maestro designed by David Bache who penned the first Range Rover?

    When the Chinese ran out of Montego bits they just started putting leftover Audi 80 panels on the front of the Maestros. Be grateful I've already done my daily pic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,663

    HYUFD said:

    I have to disagree with the thread. Recent historical precedent very much suggests that Labour has thrown off the shackles and can nowadays move decisively against its leaders when the prospect of electoral defeat demands it.

    The last Labour PM to win a general election before Starmer was deposed when in office. That happened when 2 years after a general election, Labour was underwater in the polls and the incumbent's credibility was irretrievably shot with the electorate. Pretty well the same scenario as now, butwith the biggest difference being that Labour is now facing historic levels of unpopularity, far worse than it was in mid 2007. So if anything the historical precedent there understates the likelihood of Starmer being forced out by MPs who know that no change will mean that they'll be out of work. The fact that Brown was there in waiting may have contributed to Blair walking rather than waiting until he was pushed out by MPs, but I think that matters little in this context.

    The second historical precedent is the Corbyn one. Labour MPs have now shown that they are prepared to try and force out a Labour leader who won't walk. That is the precedent that matters, not the fact that Corbyn held on thanks to an unprecedented rift between the Labour MPs and the party membership. And again the difference only strengthens the precedent - this time the membership and MPs are united not disunited in looking on at horror at the electoral scenarios unfolding, which in the wake of May 2026 will be looking like an existential crisis for the whole party as well as its MPs, should nothing change.

    The only reason that a challenge to Starmer has not already manifested itself is that the multiple challengers are all waiting for the 2026 local and devolved elections to be out of the way. That is both so that they themselves can't be blamed for a premature challenge delivering disasterous results, and also because the disaster will provide a perfect pretext to act.

    I suspect it won't be as big a disaster as some predict. If Labour beat the Tories on NEV and win a few seats from the SNP (and polls show a swing still from SNP to Labour since 2021) that would be enough for Starmer to avoid a leadership challenge.

    He may well go by the next GE anyway but if he doesn't it would need Burnham back as an MP to be sure a challenge to Starmer would succeed
    It doesn't need Burnham. Were you a Labour member I think you would better appreciate just how toxic Starmer now is within his own party membership. Many of those who have not left are just staying in to vote him out, probably casting an ABS (Anyone But Starmer) preferential vote. Remember too that the electorate will extend beyond the party membership to others who are members of affiliated unions who pay the political levy, the two largest of which are now openly calling for Starmer to go and will communicate that directly and forcefully to their members.

    And I maintain that the 2026 elections will be disasterous for Labour, existentially so if the leadership is not subsequently changed. Consider this. Addressing your comparison, for the 2025 English local elections, the NEV had Labour just 1% ahead of the Conservatives and that was before the further Labour polling meltdown of the last 7 months, so I can't see Labour exceeding the Conservative NEV. But regardless Labour's concern is with being humiliated at the hands of Reform. Before going further backwards in the latest poll, Labour won only 6% of 2025 English council seats up for election, Reform won 41%. Based on current polling Labour will lose not gain seats in Scotland and end up third behind Reform, the fact that the SNP also loses some seats is immaterial. Wales will be far worse, it could be single figures in terms of Senydd seats. A complete sh**show, across the entire nation.
    I see this years elections pretty much the same.

    But Starmer is a stubborn one, and LP rules make it difficult to force him out even if there were an obvious successor.

    I have him surviving the year as leader as 75%
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,671
    From previous thread: There are, according to the UN, more than seven million Venezuelan refugees, most residing in Latin American nations. They have my sympathy.

    The current population is about 28 million.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Venezuela
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,015
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    I have to disagree with the thread. Recent historical precedent very much suggests that Labour has thrown off the shackles and can nowadays move decisively against its leaders when the prospect of electoral defeat demands it.

    The last Labour PM to win a general election before Starmer was deposed when in office. That happened when 2 years after a general election, Labour was underwater in the polls and the incumbent's credibility was irretrievably shot with the electorate. Pretty well the same scenario as now, butwith the biggest difference being that Labour is now facing historic levels of unpopularity, far worse than it was in mid 2007. So if anything the historical precedent there understates the likelihood of Starmer being forced out by MPs who know that no change will mean that they'll be out of work. The fact that Brown was there in waiting may have contributed to Blair walking rather than waiting until he was pushed out by MPs, but I think that matters little in this context.

    The second historical precedent is the Corbyn one. Labour MPs have now shown that they are prepared to try and force out a Labour leader who won't walk. That is the precedent that matters, not the fact that Corbyn held on thanks to an unprecedented rift between the Labour MPs and the party membership. And again the difference only strengthens the precedent - this time the membership and MPs are united not disunited in looking on at horror at the electoral scenarios unfolding, which in the wake of May 2026 will be looking like an existential crisis for the whole party as well as its MPs, should nothing change.

    The only reason that a challenge to Starmer has not already manifested itself is that the multiple challengers are all waiting for the 2026 local and devolved elections to be out of the way. That is both so that they themselves can't be blamed for a premature challenge delivering disasterous results, and also because the disaster will provide a perfect pretext to act.

    I suspect it won't be as big a disaster as some predict. If Labour beat the Tories on NEV and win a few seats from the SNP (and polls show a swing still from SNP to Labour since 2021) that would be enough for Starmer to avoid a leadership challenge.

    He may well go by the next GE anyway but if he doesn't it would need Burnham back as an MP to be sure a challenge to Starmer would succeed
    It doesn't need Burnham. Were you a Labour member I think you would better appreciate just how toxic Starmer now is within his own party membership. Many of those who have not left are just staying in to vote him out, probably casting an ABS (Anyone But Starmer) preferential vote. Remember too that the electorate will extend beyond the party membership to others who are members of affiliated unions who pay the political levy, the two largest of which are now openly calling for Starmer to go and will communicate that directly and forcefully to their members.

    And I maintain that the 2026 elections will be disasterous for Labour, existentially so if the leadership is not subsequently changed. Consider this. Addressing your comparison, for the 2025 English local elections, the NEV had Labour just 1% ahead of the Conservatives and that was before the further Labour polling meltdown of the last 7 months, so I can't see Labour exceeding the Conservative NEV. But regardless Labour's concern is with being humiliated at the hands of Reform. Before going further backwards in the latest poll, Labour won only 6% of 2025 English council seats up for election, Reform won 41%. Based on current polling Labour will lose not gain seats in Scotland and end up third behind Reform, the fact that the SNP also loses some seats is immaterial. Wales will be far worse, it could be single figures in terms of Senydd seats. A complete sh**show, across the entire nation.
    I see this years elections pretty much the same.

    But Starmer is a stubborn one, and LP rules make it difficult to force him out even if there were an obvious successor.

    I have him surviving the year as leader as 75%
    If he doesn't want to go then the mechanisms for getting him out are limited and he still has immense powers of patronage to cow the PLP. It would have to be a series of rolling cabinet resignations like the end of the unlamented Johnson project and the chances of that must be < 10%.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,824

    Taz said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    algarkirk said:

    Taz said:

    One for Dura Ace here


    My first car, acquired 1982 from my dad. I did nearly 100,000 miles in it, much of it around central London where I lived till 1984. It was 'snapdragon yellow'. I hope she is happy in that heaven where all good Allegros go. RIP 1990.
    According to the How Many left site plenty in car heaven as only 294 are still licensed. A few more are SORNed.
    In the late 1980's I got stuck behind an Italian-registered Allegro (what kind of Italian would have bought an Austin Allegro?) as I attempted to cross over the Apennines along a notably twisty mountain road. It was a slow journey.
    In the late eighties the Austin Maestro was, supposedly, a favourite of taxi drivers in some parts of Eastern Europe.

    At least that’s what Austin rover were telling us.
    At least we never had the "Monstro" (FAW Lubao) which was a Maestro with surplus Montego panels nailed on the front. The Chinese government sanctions people with low social credit scores by making them drive Monstros.


    I thought the Chinese effort looked better than the Maestro. One of their earlier efforts was a rebadged Marina. On that point it's surprising the Chinese didn't stick with the bicycle.
    I’d agree, although looking better than a Maestro is a very low bar.

    The Maestro with the Montego frontage looked OK. Wasn't the Maestro designed by David Bache who penned the first Range Rover?

    How it looked was the least of its worries. It certainly looked better than the Honda designed Acclaim and first generation Rover 200.

    Mini and Metro aside, it is easy to forget how bad most Austin and Morris badged cars were after the 1100/1300 hung up it's driving gloves in 1974.

    My first company car was a Morris Ital 1700 Estate in Sandglow Yellow. It really was awful.
    I never had a company car just a cash allowance and mileage.

    No restriction on car in the contract so cheap £100 - £500 nails with long MOT’s sufficed.
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