So Trump accepts Rodriguez is President and declares Machado "doesn't have support." Looking more and more like an internal Party coup with US support than regime change.
Trump says the US will run Venezuela until a transition can be arranged and they will start pumping the oil, and will make the people of Venezuela "rich, indepedent and safe".
I know quite a lot about Venezuelan oil, and the chances of this making any significant difference (in the short term) to their oil output is utterly deluded.
Now on a five year view -assuming Venezuela is peaceful- then you could see an impact, but I would be staggered if this didn't result in lower oil production this year.
Good evening everyone. Only just catching up to this news after a lovely day in the Peak Distict. My thoughts are thus: 1) At least he can console himself that he'll always have the FIFA peace prize. 2) Will Hutton is stark staring mad. Representative of a certain strand of political opinion that can see no incident without somehow whingeing "But BREXIT...". 3) Look at this nice photo of the moon rising over Mam Tor:
EDIT: And to be clear, 4) This is clearly not good news and Trump is a dangerous lunatic, although Maduro is clearly also a dangerous lunatic. But that, I hope, goes without saying.
Trump says the US will run Venezuela until a transition can be arranged and they will start pumping the oil, and will make the people of Venezuela "rich, indepedent and safe".
I know quite a lot about Venezuelan oil, and the chances of this making any significant difference (in the short term) to their oil output is utterly deluded.
Now on a five year view -assuming Venezuela is peaceful- then you could see an impact, but I would be staggered if this didn't result in lower oil production this year.
How many billions/years to get the heavy crude production moving again, do you reckon?
Who would have the refining capacity for that sludge, as well?
..Europe has been so hopelessly slow in reacting to the new geopolitical reality.
Venezuela is not a major issue for Europe
..this has huge ramifications beyond just Venezuela. I’d be nervous if I were in Greenland right now, and that’s Europe’s problem.
Instead we’re too busy upping welfare payments. We are clearly in a world where strength matters.
Labour backbenchers have forced upping welfare payments in the UK. Denmark to be fair to it has announced over £3 billion equivalent of extra defence spending and in 2025 all NATO nations committed to spend 5% of gdp on defence by 2035
..Europe has been so hopelessly slow in reacting to the new geopolitical reality.
Venezuela is not a major issue for Europe
..this has huge ramifications beyond just Venezuela. I’d be nervous if I were in Greenland right now, and that’s Europe’s problem.
Instead we’re too busy upping welfare payments. We are clearly in a world where strength matters.
Labour backbenchers have forced upping welfare payments in the UK. Denmark to be fair to it has announced over £3 billion equivalent of extra defence spending and in 2025 all NATO nations committed to spend 5% of gdp on defence by 2035
Everyone is going to have to spend a lot more than that if we enter into a new age of conquest.
Trump says the US will run Venezuela until a transition can be arranged and they will start pumping the oil, and will make the people of Venezuela "rich, indepedent and safe".
I know quite a lot about Venezuelan oil, and the chances of this making any significant difference (in the short term) to their oil output is utterly deluded.
Now on a five year view -assuming Venezuela is peaceful- then you could see an impact, but I would be staggered if this didn't result in lower oil production this year.
How many billions/years to get the heavy crude production moving again, do you reckon?
Who would have the refining capacity for that sludge, as well?
We can start burning Orimulsion in our power stations again.
..Europe has been so hopelessly slow in reacting to the new geopolitical reality.
Venezuela is not a major issue for Europe
..this has huge ramifications beyond just Venezuela. I’d be nervous if I were in Greenland right now, and that’s Europe’s problem.
Instead we’re too busy upping welfare payments. We are clearly in a world where strength matters.
Labour backbenchers have forced upping welfare payments in the UK. Denmark to be fair to it has announced over £3 billion equivalent of extra defence spending and in 2025 all NATO nations committed to spend 5% of gdp on defence by 2035
Everyone is going to have to spend a lot more than that if we enter into a new age of conquest.
Though in turn the occupier will also have to spend more on the occupation
Anyway spare a thought for the good people of Guyana, just last year Maduro was threatening to invade them.
Trump must be their national hero.
Would you want a Trump-run country on your doorstep? Particularly if you'd recently found you'd got some oil?
Better than some set of autocratic bastards who lay claim to half your country and who want Putin to arm them for the job.
Trump has many faults but theres worse out there.
Not many. The Taliban, Putin, Kim Jon whatever he is. That's about it.
China under Xi is methodically wiping Tibet out as a separate culture. Also demolishing the Uyghur culture - complete with mass detentions of big chunks of the population.
Good evening everyone. Only just catching up to this news after a lovely day in the Peak Distict. My thoughts are thus: 1) At least he can console himself that he'll always have the FIFA peace prize. 2) Will Hutton is stark staring mad. Representative of a certain strand of political opinion that can see no incident without somehow whingeing "But BREXIT...". 3) Look at this nice photo of the moon rising over Mam Tor:
EDIT: And to be clear, 4) This is clearly not good news and Trump is a dangerous lunatic, although Maduro is clearly also a dangerous lunatic. But that, I hope, goes without saying.
Nice picture. But you seem to have Brexit derangement syndrome.
Anyway spare a thought for the good people of Guyana, just last year Maduro was threatening to invade them.
Trump must be their national hero.
Would you want a Trump-run country on your doorstep? Particularly if you'd recently found you'd got some oil?
Better than some set of autocratic bastards who lay claim to half your country and who want Putin to arm them for the job.
Trump has many faults but theres worse out there.
Not many. The Taliban, Putin, Kim Jon whatever he is. That's about it.
China under Xi is methodically wiping Tibet out as a separate culture. Also demolishing the Uyghur culture - complete with mass detentions of big chunks of the population.
Myanmar is run by some truly nasty people.
I'd rather you didnt bring hard facts into the issue when there's a Trump moanathon in progress.
Anyway spare a thought for the good people of Guyana, just last year Maduro was threatening to invade them.
Trump must be their national hero.
Would you want a Trump-run country on your doorstep? Particularly if you'd recently found you'd got some oil?
Better than some set of autocratic bastards who lay claim to half your country and who want Putin to arm them for the job.
Trump has many faults but theres worse out there.
Not many. The Taliban, Putin, Kim Jon whatever he is. That's about it.
China under Xi is methodically wiping Tibet out as a separate culture. Also demolishing the Uyghur culture - complete with mass detentions of big chunks of the population.
Myanmar is run by some truly nasty people.
There's a Buddhist site near me that is building a new temple with a library underneath (albeit slowly).
I think they are wanting somewhere to store their Tibetan literature before it is vanished.
Sorry to be petty and domestic about this, but has Nigel Farage issued any statement, or answered any questions, about the USA's actions in Venezuela? I see that Davey has called for Sir Kier to denounce Trump, but that's to be expected.
Has Badenoch commented, or is she just irrelevant nowadays?
'There’s a lot of noise from people who couldn’t find Venezuela on a map yesterday.
This is clearly a fast-moving and extremely serious situation. I am not going to rush to judgement or speculate on incomplete reports.
I’m more interested in what Venezuelans risking their lives for democracy have to say.
The UK’s responsibility is to understand the facts, assess where our national interest lies and consider the consequences for Venezuela’s people and for regional and global stability.
It is not for us to second guess from afar the motives and evidence behind these events. Let’s hear what President Trump has to say shortly. I will also be watching closely what is said by Venezuela’s democratic opposition.' https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2007469918178959818?s=20
She is speaking more sense than most of the commentators on here.
She doesn't have the freedom to comment so is diplomatically saying nothing. Nothing to do speaking sense.
As an expert in bland musings with little meaning, I have to agree with that assessment of her comment.
Trump promises to sell large amounts of Venezuelan oil to other nations
Sounds good. Lower prices,Putin bankrupt.
Is there that much available without a lot of investment?
Though it is interesting that Russia don't seem to be pulling any strings here. Whose idea _was_ this?
They'll need years to get their industry up and running, but the threat of more oil coming on the market will probably keep prices low.
That's not how the spot oil market works.
Spot no, but since were meant to be looking at an oil glut in 2026 and now have the chance of more if Trump lifts sanctions Im struggling to see the upwards pressure.
Trump is clearly obsessed by the oil, whatever the actual facts are about its worth (economic or strategic). He's effectively threatening more strikes unless US companies get their hands on it during this press conference.
I think at its core this is just a robbery and abduction, and the drugs and Maduro's despotism is just an excuse for Trump. He doesn't care at all.
He thinks he is a Don.
His reported obsession with personal loyalty even from officials makes that plain.
Sorry to be petty and domestic about this, but has Nigel Farage issued any statement, or answered any questions, about the USA's actions in Venezuela? I see that Davey has called for Sir Kier to denounce Trump, but that's to be expected.
Has Badenoch commented, or is she just irrelevant nowadays?
'There’s a lot of noise from people who couldn’t find Venezuela on a map yesterday.
This is clearly a fast-moving and extremely serious situation. I am not going to rush to judgement or speculate on incomplete reports.
I’m more interested in what Venezuelans risking their lives for democracy have to say.
The UK’s responsibility is to understand the facts, assess where our national interest lies and consider the consequences for Venezuela’s people and for regional and global stability.
It is not for us to second guess from afar the motives and evidence behind these events. Let’s hear what President Trump has to say shortly. I will also be watching closely what is said by Venezuela’s democratic opposition.' https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2007469918178959818?s=20
Anyone who has played Risk (and who hasn't) knows where Venezuela is.
As an Essex Boy, I doubt HYUFD can find Kent on a map
I was literally born in Kent
Thanet or Not Thanet?
AIUI, one is either a Man of Kent or a Kentish Man, depending upon which side of the Medway one was born.
Thanet is where the immigrants arrive - see Sellar and Yeatman.
Trump says the US will run Venezuela until a transition can be arranged and they will start pumping the oil, and will make the people of Venezuela "rich, indepedent and safe".
I know quite a lot about Venezuelan oil, and the chances of this making any significant difference (in the short term) to their oil output is utterly deluded.
Now on a five year view -assuming Venezuela is peaceful- then you could see an impact, but I would be staggered if this didn't result in lower oil production this year.
In the medium term it could be significant - especially *if* there is a stable regime which in turn allows full development of the Guyana fields.
Or it could all go pear shaped.
If it doesn't, then next up Greenland. Which no doubt william will be celebrating too.
So, the Mad King says they are running Venezuela now, despite having no presence in the Country.
Are the first boots on the ground going to welcomed, or attacked?
If nothing else, as an American oil company I wouldn't send any staff there without US troops securing the sites
You don't necessarily need a presence if you have already made the consequences of opposition clear. I view the Maduro kidnapping in much the same way as the Godfather putting a horses' head in the bed. It is a warning of what happens if you don't do as the Mango Mafia King wants.
Trump really has turned the US state into a criminal organisation.
Trump says the US will run Venezuela until a transition can be arranged and they will start pumping the oil, and will make the people of Venezuela "rich, indepedent and safe".
I know quite a lot about Venezuelan oil, and the chances of this making any significant difference (in the short term) to their oil output is utterly deluded.
Now on a five year view -assuming Venezuela is peaceful- then you could see an impact, but I would be staggered if this didn't result in lower oil production this year.
How many billions/years to get the heavy crude production moving again, do you reckon?
Who would have the refining capacity for that sludge, as well?
Many billions, and many years.
Plus here's the other thing: all the companies with experience in bitumen soaked sands are Canadian.
"Trump says that the US is going to be "strongly involved" in Venezuela's oil industry moving forward."
To do that would need a stable country and no internal disputes between warring parties. So perhaps the Venezuelan VP has done a deal?
Even with the US being a lot more powerful that would seen an overly total capitulation from their perspective. His brashness might even stymie those wanting to capitulate.
Nice quiet uneventful start to 2026....spot of regime change. Given track record of the West so far this century in such attempts sure it will go without a hitch.
An extraordinary day and perhaps the dawn of a new age of diplomacy or more accurately perhaps a return to how things were done once before.
It's not as though America hasn't on any number of occasions removed leaders it didn't like and replaced them with more compliant individuals. Has Rodriguez "done a deal" with Washington? If so, this is a coup de main but how will the Venezulean security forces react in the days to come?
There's something faintly absurd about the idea of a Trump Administration official sitting offshore on an aircraft carrier and running the country (some on here might think that could work well for the UK or at least London).
For those angry about today's events, there's the world as it is and the world as you might like it. Realpolitik in the 21st century isn't that much different from how it was in previous times - stronger states can decide the fate of weaker ones and, as a wise man once said, money talks, men walk.
So, the Mad King says they are running Venezuela now, despite having no presence in the Country.
Are the first boots on the ground going to welcomed, or attacked?
If nothing else, as an American oil company I wouldn't send any staff there without US troops securing the sites
You don't necessarily need a presence if you have already made the consequences of opposition clear. I view the Maduro kidnapping in much the same way as the Godfather putting a horses' head in the bed. It is a warning of what happens if you don't do as the Mango Mafia King wants.
Trump really has turned the US state into a criminal organisation.
It is the law of New York mobsters. Take out a smaller competitor and envelope his hustle into your own.
I don't recall Trump ever praising Maduro in fairness. Xi, Putin, and Kim, yes (whether one thinks that is diplomatic puffery or not), but I don't recall Maduro.
So, the Mad King says they are running Venezuela now, despite having no presence in the Country.
Are the first boots on the ground going to welcomed, or attacked?
If nothing else, as an American oil company I wouldn't send any staff there without US troops securing the sites
You don't necessarily need a presence if you have already made the consequences of opposition clear. I view the Maduro kidnapping in much the same way as the Godfather putting a horses' head in the bed. It is a warning of what happens if you don't do as the Mango Mafia King wants.
Trump really has turned the US state into a criminal organisation.
It is the law of New York mobsters. Take out a smaller competitor and envelope his hustle into your own.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged.
Interesting take, though he also has been trolling Russian talking points as at the end.
I think the people freaking out about the status of international law in the aftermath of this are missing something even bigger to be freaked out about - what if this works? Trump whacked Soleimani exactly 6 years ago today, and all the people screaming about it were wrong...
If you’re wedded to the international law status quo (one which has overwhelmingly favoured autocrats in the last few decades), then you should probably be more worried that this doesn’t end up being a total disaster.
Being an anti-interventionist is the easiest position to hold in geopolitics. You never have to come up with a solution to a dictator abolishing a country’s democracy, you simply exist only to critique taking action. All involvement is automatically worse than the dictatorship.
It’s easy because your theory is never really tested, and examples where it is, like Syria, are messy enough for you to ignore. But Donald Trump is rolling the dice in a way that should make these people feel very uncomfortable, because nobody knows what the outcome will be. https://nitter.poast.org/OzKaterji/status/2007469818606166496#m
Venezuela must now concede 20% of its territory, anything less than that risks World War III and the nuclear annihilation of the human race.
Again, I don't make the rules, this is the world order you demanded.
A return to spheres of influence could make sense if you are a great power. If you aren't one, cheering it seems foolhardy. Once again, too many people are living mentally like Americans, not realising they are citizens of the periphery. https://nitter.poast.org/yuanyi_z/status/2007475827277967649#m
Thread from BBC fact check. It seems many of the official images from the US SMO are fake. Either created or manipulated by AI or actually from earlier Iranian attacks on Israel
Thread from BBC fact check. It seems many of the official images from the US SMO are fake. Either created or manipulated by AI or actually from earlier Iranian attacks on Israel
So, the Mad King says they are running Venezuela now, despite having no presence in the Country.
Are the first boots on the ground going to welcomed, or attacked?
If nothing else, as an American oil company I wouldn't send any staff there without US troops securing the sites
You don't necessarily need a presence if you have already made the consequences of opposition clear. I view the Maduro kidnapping in much the same way as the Godfather putting a horses' head in the bed. It is a warning of what happens if you don't do as the Mango Mafia King wants.
Trump really has turned the US state into a criminal organisation.
OK, but the question remains. Who is in charge? Who makes decisions? Who controls what's left of the Venezuelan military?
If oilmen turn up in Venezuela to "start the pumps", who is responsible for their safety?
None of this makes sense. It sounds good on TV, but how does it work, in practise?
Thread from BBC fact check. It seems many of the official images from the US SMO are fake. Either created or manipulated by AI or actually from earlier Iranian attacks on Israel
Starting to think Trump might be a wrong’un. I know one shouldn’t rush to judgment, but I’m starting to think that way.
Take your time. I’ve already decided he is not here to defend liberal democracy (probably just on basis an advisor has pointed out it’s got the word liberal in it). Nor Capitalism. Nor particularly interested in a long running successful idealogical movement as his legacy.
Good evening everyone. Only just catching up to this news after a lovely day in the Peak Distict. My thoughts are thus: 1) At least he can console himself that he'll always have the FIFA peace prize. 2) Will Hutton is stark staring mad. Representative of a certain strand of political opinion that can see no incident without somehow whingeing "But BREXIT...". 3) Look at this nice photo of the moon rising over Mam Tor:
EDIT: And to be clear, 4) This is clearly not good news and Trump is a dangerous lunatic, although Maduro is clearly also a dangerous lunatic. But that, I hope, goes without saying.
What do you make of the mini landscape of "stone stacks" built on Mam Tor by narcissists making temporary monuments to themselves from stones taken from dry stone walls?
(I'd be up for repurposing a local hanging tree if I could find one.)
Comments
Looking more and more like an internal Party coup with US support than regime change.
That's about it.
Now on a five year view -assuming Venezuela is peaceful- then you could see an impact, but I would be staggered if this didn't result in lower oil production this year.
It's a sad day for centrist dads
1) At least he can console himself that he'll always have the FIFA peace prize.
2) Will Hutton is stark staring mad. Representative of a certain strand of political opinion that can see no incident without somehow whingeing "But BREXIT...".
3) Look at this nice photo of the moon rising over Mam Tor:
EDIT: And to be clear, 4) This is clearly not good news and Trump is a dangerous lunatic, although Maduro is clearly also a dangerous lunatic. But that, I hope, goes without saying.
Who would have the refining capacity for that sludge, as well?
Myanmar is run by some truly nasty people.
But you seem to have Brexit derangement syndrome.
I think they are wanting somewhere to store their Tibetan literature before it is vanished.
Or it could all go pear shaped.
If it doesn't, then next up Greenland. Which no doubt william will be celebrating too.
Trump talks tough on Venezuela, but admires thugs and dictators like Nicolas Maduro.
As President, I will stand with the Venezuelan people and for democracy.
https://x.com/joebiden/status/1274910217508196352?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Trump really has turned the US state into a criminal organisation.
Plus here's the other thing: all the companies with experience in bitumen soaked sands are Canadian.
An extraordinary day and perhaps the dawn of a new age of diplomacy or more accurately perhaps a return to how things were done once before.
It's not as though America hasn't on any number of occasions removed leaders it didn't like and replaced them with more compliant individuals. Has Rodriguez "done a deal" with Washington? If so, this is a coup de main but how will the Venezulean security forces react in the days to come?
There's something faintly absurd about the idea of a Trump Administration official sitting offshore on an aircraft carrier and running the country (some on here might think that could work well for the UK or at least London).
For those angry about today's events, there's the world as it is and the world as you might like it. Realpolitik in the 21st century isn't that much different from how it was in previous times - stronger states can decide the fate of weaker ones and, as a wise man once said, money talks, men walk.
https://x.com/ZackPolanski/status/2007512243177771155
Keir Starmer has made himself irrelevant on the world stage.
Trumps poodle - that Trumps not even interested in walking anymore.
The problem for all of us is we're stuck with him. For now...
https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007455311351718118?s=20
I think the people freaking out about the status of international law in the aftermath of this are missing something even bigger to be freaked out about - what if this works? Trump whacked Soleimani exactly 6 years ago today, and all the people screaming about it were wrong...
If you’re wedded to the international law status quo (one which has overwhelmingly favoured autocrats in the last few decades), then you should probably be more worried that this doesn’t end up being a total disaster.
Being an anti-interventionist is the easiest position to hold in geopolitics. You never have to come up with a solution to a dictator abolishing a country’s democracy, you simply exist only to critique taking action. All involvement is automatically worse than the dictatorship.
It’s easy because your theory is never really tested, and examples where it is, like Syria, are messy enough for you to ignore. But Donald Trump is rolling the dice in a way that should make these people feel very uncomfortable, because nobody knows what the outcome will be.
https://nitter.poast.org/OzKaterji/status/2007469818606166496#m
Venezuela must now concede 20% of its territory, anything less than that risks World War III and the nuclear annihilation of the human race.
Again, I don't make the rules, this is the world order you demanded.
A return to spheres of influence could make sense if you are a great power. If you aren't one, cheering it seems foolhardy. Once again, too many people are living mentally like Americans, not realising they are citizens of the periphery.
https://nitter.poast.org/yuanyi_z/status/2007475827277967649#m
https://bsky.app/profile/shayan86.bsky.social/post/3mbjy54flhc2u
NEW THREAD
https://x.com/flightradar24/status/2007498092946522531?s=20
Should have gone on a Jet2 holiday.
If oilmen turn up in Venezuela to "start the pumps", who is responsible for their safety?
None of this makes sense. It sounds good on TV, but how does it work, in practise?
(I'd be up for repurposing a local hanging tree if I could find one.)