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Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,712
edited 6:00AM in General
Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com

YouGov's September 2025 MRP projects a hung parliament where Reform UK would be almost certain to form a governmentReform UK: 311 (+306 from 2024)Labour: 144 (-267)Lib Dems: 78 (+6)Conservatives: 45 (-76)SNP: 37 (+28)Greens: 7 (+3)Plaid: 6 (+2)Others: 3 (-2)yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

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  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,589
    First
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,729
    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Not meaning to get at Big_G here, who just repeated a comment he heard on the news, but I do wish people would not go on about Anitfa in a UK context. It doesn't exist in the UK; it is an irrelevance. And pretending it does exist might be rather dangerous.

    It's yet another US import that we could do without.

    It's just a demonstration of how the UK right are in thrall to MAGA, repeating all their tropes no matter how irrelevant to a UK context.

    How anyone looks at America and thinks we should copy that destruction of what was once a free society astonishes me.

    Looking at last night on here I am glad I was out.
    Given the UK Left has imported lots of dross from the USA its sort of inevitable the UK Right will follow
    Which dross? I think much of UK leftism is quite different to US leftism - partly because the challenges that face working people are different.
    I found BLM an unwelcome US import, as the issues facing Black Britons are really quite different to those of the USA. I note though that BLM became a worldwide cause celebre, against perceptions of racisst policing in Australia and New Zealand, and even against police brutality in Nigeria and Uganda.

    It's very odd how our schools cover the US civil rights movement in history, rather than the much more relevant issues around racism in our own history Including the Bristol bus "colour bar", Sandwell by-election, "Rivers of Blood" etc, even before we get to the decolonisation of the British Empire in Africa in the 1950s and 1960's.
    Wasn't Peter Griffiths and the Conservatives's "vote Labour, get a ****** for a neighbour" campaign from the 1964 General Election? The by election controversy came later when Wilson attempted to shoehorn Patrick Gordon Walker into the hitherto safe seat of Leyton.

    https://youtu.be/p3298o8lwlk?si=iI1s6dT783_Tib_L
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,421
    Mexicanpete said:

    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Not meaning to get at Big_G here, who just repeated a comment he heard on the news, but I do wish people would not go on about Anitfa in a UK context. It doesn't exist in the UK; it is an irrelevance. And pretending it does exist might be rather dangerous.

    It's yet another US import that we could do without.

    It's just a demonstration of how the UK right are in thrall to MAGA, repeating all their tropes no matter how irrelevant to a UK context.

    How anyone looks at America and thinks we should copy that destruction of what was once a free society astonishes me.

    Looking at last night on here I am glad I was out.
    Given the UK Left has imported lots of dross from the USA its sort of inevitable the UK Right will follow
    Which dross? I think much of UK leftism is quite different to US leftism - partly because the challenges that face working people are different.
    I found BLM an unwelcome US import, as the issues facing Black Britons are really quite different to those of the USA. I note though that BLM became a worldwide cause celebre, against perceptions of racisst policing in Australia and New Zealand, and even against police brutality in Nigeria and Uganda.

    It's very odd how our schools cover the US civil rights movement in history, rather than the much more relevant issues around racism in our own history Including the Bristol bus "colour bar", Sandwell by-election, "Rivers of Blood" etc, even before we get to the decolonisation of the British Empire in Africa in the 1950s and 1960's.
    Wasn't Peter Griffiths and the Conservatives's "vote Labour, get a ****** for a neighbour" campaign from the 1964 General Election? The by election controversy came later when Wilson attempted to shoehorn Patrick Gordon Walker into the hitherto safe seat of Leyton.

    https://youtu.be/p3298o8lwlk?si=iI1s6dT783_Tib_L
    Quite probably so.

    I blame an inadequate UK history curriculum!

    My own History O Level in the Eighties was "Economic and Social History" covering 1700-1914, particularly the Industrial Revolution, Enclosure movement, Railways boom, Tolpuddle Martyrs, Chartism, Social Reformers such as Shaftesbury and the Cadburys etc.

    I dont think there was anything in common with the GCSE's that my boys did in the 21st Century.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    edited 6:29AM
    Foxy said:

    Very interesting analysis.

    I am not convinced by Hindu voters being Conservative though. I think that was largely a Sunak effect which is now extinct. Leicester East as a safe Tory seat stretches the concept. I dont know who will win there but an independent would be most likely, particularly as the Tories align ever more closely to Reform, and go down a similar rabbit hole of mass deportations of legal immigrants.

    MRPs are great but this kind of constituency-level analysis just doesn't work IMO. It's a big sample but stretched across 650 constituencies...

    Not a statistician but I think it's worthy of the sub-sample klaxon. Acceptable for broad trends but is there really enough data to suggest that Kirkcaldy is a three-way fight? The 92% that GOTV points out for the last election sounds good but I reckon I could have guessed close to that given a vote share and a simple model.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    Good morning

    The whole world's gone to hell, but how are you?

    Can we try turning the country off and back on again?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    Completely OT but does anyone have recommendations for a trail camera? Just something for the garden that I can extract videos from without getting the SD card out.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,827
    Another great thread.

    I think Lib Lab coalition very plausible result next time.
    Reasonable to assume some labour recovery I think, particularly in the face of Farage threat.
    Greens on 11% seems a stretch when Farage PM is likely.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,589
    Eabhal said:

    Completely OT but does anyone have recommendations for a trail camera? Just something for the garden that I can extract videos from without getting the SD card out.

    With the amount of badgers, hedgehogs and deer that we have visiting our lane and garden overnight we bought one only to find that most of the time all we caught was selfies of our own three cats and next doors cats being nosey about the new camera in place over the summer!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,277
    An excellent thread header, thanks Gareth.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,057
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Very interesting analysis.

    I am not convinced by Hindu voters being Conservative though. I think that was largely a Sunak effect which is now extinct. Leicester East as a safe Tory seat stretches the concept. I dont know who will win there but an independent would be most likely, particularly as the Tories align ever more closely to Reform, and go down a similar rabbit hole of mass deportations of legal immigrants.

    MRPs are great but this kind of constituency-level analysis just doesn't work IMO. It's a big sample but stretched across 650 constituencies...

    Not a statistician but I think it's worthy of the sub-sample klaxon. Acceptable for broad trends but is there really enough data to suggest that Kirkcaldy is a three-way fight? The 92% that GOTV points out for the last election sounds good but I reckon I could have guessed close to that given a vote share and a simple model.
    I suspect the answer is that MRP does what it does very well, which is improving UNS by modelling demographic quirks.

    What it can't model is genuinely local factors, like the Lib Lab "understanding", the mass of Focus leaflets put through letterboxes, and the Conservative Hindu surge of 2024.

    In the old 2.5 party system, that didn't matter much. Now, it's what's going to decide the outcome. 2028/9 really looks like being 650 simultaneous by-elections.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,257
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Good morning

    The whole world's gone to hell, but how are you?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m002hcbk

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,681
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,650
    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,329
    Wales becoming a contest between Plaid and Reform would be depressing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,681
    LostPassword said:

    Wales becoming a contest between Plaid and Reform would be depressing.

    It already is and labour's time is up
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,791
    LostPassword said:

    Wales becoming a contest between Plaid and Reform would be depressing.

    Wales under Labour has been pretty depressing by all accounts.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    On topic, its a great analysis from @Garethofthevale - anything can happen in today's politics. So the challenge for those of us despairing of this reform swing is what to do to swing it back.

    External factors we can't really do anything about. I am hugely sympathetic to British Jews who today more than ever need our love and support. What Israel is doing is an outrage, but Israel is not British Jews and it angers me to see these dickheads equating them. Whereas "Global Intifada" nutters directly attach themselves to proscribed terrorist nutters. Last nights protests / riots were outrageous. What that drives in terms of people's likelihood to be influenced by far right racist nutters we can't control. Sadly.

    Politically though we do have some control. For me there are two factors as always, push and pull.

    Lets do Pull first. The more we get fukers elected, the more they will be exposed as grifters. Already being seen on councils where they are in office and that will ramp up as we go through their wild successes of next year. Reform councillors seem to fall largely into three camps: ex Tories, ideologues, and low information. The former aren't the good Tories, its the awful ones. The ideologues think "just blame x" and things get fixed, and the low information don't actually know.

    None of that makes for good local government as we are starting to see. Point out to voters that "vote for the alternative" is vote for the same, and it loses its appeal. Also, nationally we will see more division from the ex Tory grifters jumping ship. The more Tories join the less appeal to some of the inner city voters supposedly voting fuker in cities like Liverpool.

    Then we have push. Labour will sack Starmer, its when not if. The Greens have excitingly reinvented themselves as angry rather than wet. The LibDems came out of the blocks first opposing the Farage / Putin / Trump axis and as Gareth's analysis shows now have more safe seats than any other party.

    So polls swing, nothing is yet set in stone, and in today's maelstrom anything can happen.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,681
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    LostPassword said:

    Wales becoming a contest between Plaid and Reform would be depressing.

    Wales under Labour has been pretty depressing by all accounts.
    It has been dreadful for a very long time
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,421
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,583
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    They don't need to have the skills to run the council. When they fail, they'll just blame others - particularly the 'system', when they are now actually core to that system. They'll use their failure to show why we need more of them.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,057
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    Are you sure about that "more defections of skilled and capable politicians"? The nearest they have had to one of those are Andrea Jenkyns and Danny Kruger.

    Who are the 100 or so ministers that a Farage government will need? How do they work under Farage? How does Farage operate with that many potential rivals?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,815
    edited 7:00AM
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    The real concern is a radicalisation into anti-democratic Christian fundamentalism defining itself against anti-democratic Islamic fundamentalism.

    Trump, Orban, Islamic radicals, and social media algorithms are exerting this influence.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,729
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I can see a flaw in your theory.

    The Tories so far jumping ship to reform seem to be the madder element of the Conservative Party. Those Conservatives who were uniquely responsible for breaking Britain.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 291
    An article to keep and treasure forever. Well maybe until 2029.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,140
    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread header, thanks Gareth.

    You might think the header excellent but Gareth completely ignores the elephant in the room, which is whether Reform should be abbreviated REF or RFM.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    It's not a word in our political lexicon (yet), so it's indicative of someone picking up their talking points from the MAGA right. It might seem like a harmless term, but it's almost always coupled with attempts to close down protests and freedom of speech, as we saw last night (including on PB, sadly).

    Anti-anti-fascist.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,583
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    Mexicanpete said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I can see a flaw in your theory.

    The Tories so far jumping ship to reform seem to be the madder element of the Conservative Party. Those Conservatives who were uniquely responsible for breaking Britain.
    When you look at social media you see two responses to this:
    The people pointing out that mad Tories have broken Britain
    The people saying that Reform will fix broken Britain

    The connection - that the same mad Tories ARE REFORM NOW - needs to be hammered. Because the decent Tories have largely stayed where they are,. The defectors are the mad, the bad, the cruel, the incompetent.

    Reform have a lot of support from people who are desperate to fix things. Hammering the point that they would be voting for the very same people who broke things is crucial to the resistance.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,381
    Morning all :)

    The wind is getting up this morning so I had to...

    I must confess I'd not taken Reform too seriously locally until the recent Plaistow North by election when their candidate came a clear third polling 16% in a predominantely Muslim seat and comfortably beat the Greens, LDs and Conservatives.

    Could Reform win seats on Newham Council next year? In the GE, Reform polled 3.5% in East Ham but 7.7% in West Ham & Beckton and it's areas like Beckton and Canning Town where I could see Reform doing well rather than the Muslim or Hindu Wards. Something to think about...

    I didn't comment yesterday. Feelings were running very high yesterday evening. The freedom of all those of faith to worship without fear should be a fundamental and non-negotiable in a civilised society and if those of faith wish to show that faith via items of attire whether it be the hijab, dhoti or tallit, that is or should be their right.

    Cultural anthropology tells us these customs have varied across time and within societies so it may well be these strictures will themselves be amended over the coming decades.

    To continue to practice a faith when the surrounding societal and cultural conditions are hostile is an act of huge personal courage which has to be respected yet it should not be like that. The historically strong Jewish community in my part of East London has all but disappeared as new migrants and new faiths have arrived and that's a loss to our community.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    LostPassword said:

    Wales becoming a contest between Plaid and Reform would be depressing.

    Wales under Labour has been pretty depressing by all accounts.
    It has been dreadful for a very long time
    Every one party hegemony becomes stale eventually but to think that things “can’t get any worse” is incredibly juvenile. They always can.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,140
    No evidence churchyard rape took place, say police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4wdypqwvdo

    That is the Banbury graveyard gang rape discussed a couple of days ago.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
    Anti-fascist. Pretty self explanatory
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    No evidence churchyard rape took place, say police
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4wdypqwvdo

    That is the Banbury graveyard gang rape discussed a couple of days ago.

    Christ.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,257
    Stuartinromford said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    Are you sure about that "more defections of skilled and capable politicians"? The nearest they have had to one of those are Andrea Jenkyns and Danny Kruger.

    Who are the 100 or so ministers that a Farage government will need? How do they work under Farage? How does Farage operate with that many potential rivals?
    Among the usual anti Reform drivel you get here, and the oh so witty ‘Fukkers’ student politics name calling tat, this is a very very good point on a fundamental weakness they have.

    Who fills what position and what background do they have.

    Who would be their Chancellor ? Tice ? Who would be Home Secretary, who would be Energy Secretary.

    Part of the problem the parties opposing them have is they have hardly been a model of competence in govt either so throwing that brickbat rebounds and many govt ministers are merely former SPADs and charity workers/think tankers/quangocrats.

    And if reform do have some dodgy dealings at a local govt level that simply makes them no better than the others really.

    The other issue is Reform merely seems to be a dumping ground for disaffected Tories. The latest defector being Sarah Atherton, a former Minister. No, me neither.

    The govt needs to get a grip on the economy, get a grip on spending and borrowing, and start making tangible improvements in people’s lives and feeling of wellbeing and stop pandering to lobbyists and special interest groups.

    The way to defeat people fleeing to Reform is not to label them, or demonise their voters as this is always counter productive, but remove the appeal for people to vote for them. They have four years. The upcoming budget won’t help.

    I’m not concerned about Reform. I’d possibly vote for them depending on their policies but am minded to vote Luke Akehurst again. However when they fail where do people go next.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,729
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Bullshitters are no longer called out for their bullshit.

    Farage is platformed and states Trump is quite possibly right when he links autism to paracetamol use, and the BBC ignore it. Farage tacitly blames the culture Starmer has created for the assassination of Kirk and that is reported as gospel. Farage quotes Andrew Tate and hotels catch fire, yet the real arsonist is not named.

    Nick Ferrari held his feet to the fire last week and no one at the BBC or Sky was interested.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,063
    Many thanks for the header, it's a fascinating analysis. Unfortunately I haven't time to read it properly now but will do so later.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,257
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I can see a flaw in your theory.

    The Tories so far jumping ship to reform seem to be the madder element of the Conservative Party. Those Conservatives who were uniquely responsible for breaking Britain.
    When you look at social media you see two responses to this:
    The people pointing out that mad Tories have broken Britain
    The people saying that Reform will fix broken Britain

    The connection - that the same mad Tories ARE REFORM NOW - needs to be hammered. Because the decent Tories have largely stayed where they are,. The defectors are the mad, the bad, the cruel, the incompetent.

    Reform have a lot of support from people who are desperate to fix things. Hammering the point that they would be voting for the very same people who broke things is crucial to the resistance.
    Why is the solution merely demonising the opposition and not improving people’s lives and circumstances. Why is it the main parties cannot offer any positives to vote for them and any positives for disaffected communities. Merely having tame Labour MPs a s councillors tell us things are getting better helps how ?

    . Why vote for the same old same old when you simply get the same as you currently get ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    Taz said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I can see a flaw in your theory.

    The Tories so far jumping ship to reform seem to be the madder element of the Conservative Party. Those Conservatives who were uniquely responsible for breaking Britain.
    When you look at social media you see two responses to this:
    The people pointing out that mad Tories have broken Britain
    The people saying that Reform will fix broken Britain

    The connection - that the same mad Tories ARE REFORM NOW - needs to be hammered. Because the decent Tories have largely stayed where they are,. The defectors are the mad, the bad, the cruel, the incompetent.

    Reform have a lot of support from people who are desperate to fix things. Hammering the point that they would be voting for the very same people who broke things is crucial to the resistance.
    Why is the solution merely demonising the opposition and not improving people’s lives and circumstances. Why is it the main parties cannot offer any positives to vote for them and any positives for disaffected communities. Merely having tame Labour MPs a s councillors tell us things are getting better helps how ?

    . Why vote for the same old same old when you simply get the same as you currently get ?
    As you say, Reform are just the same people wearing Coventry City sky blue rather than Birmingham City dark blue.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,815
    edited 7:16AM
    Mexicanpete said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Bullshitters are no longer called out for their bullshit.

    Farage is platformed and states Trump is quite possibly right when he links autism to paracetamol use, and the BBC ignore it. Farage tacitly blames the culture Starmer has created for the assassination of Kirk and that is reported as gospel. Farage quotes Andrew Tate and hotels catch fire, yet the real arsonist is not named.

    Nick Ferrari held his feet to the fire last week and no one at the BBC or Sky was interested.
    The BBC is a very different animal from a few years ago. It both lacks intellectual confidence, and tends to over-defer to people it believes are in the opposite cultural space from it, partly as a result of the influence of people like Davie and Gibb.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    edited 7:13AM
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    We need a PR coupon election. I am sick of FPTP - it doesn’t work with this many parties on reasonable vote shares.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I feel like she’s in a unique position within Labour to say these kind of things. One to watch.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,263
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread header, thanks Gareth.

    You might think the header excellent but Gareth completely ignores the elephant in the room, which is whether Reform should be abbreviated REF or RFM.
    REFUK.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,729
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    What would be the difference between a Reform majority and a RefCon coalition with Jenrick as Deputy Prime Minister?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
    I am anti-fascist. Which is what antifa is a literal abbreviation of.

    There is no ANTIFA other than in a fever dream of the American right. So if they - and now their shills here - want to come looking for ANTIFA then I will out myself as such to show how utterly deranged this Americanism is.

    Trump is going to use ANTIFA as the excuse to shut off the remnants of American democracy. I stand with the people opposed to Trump fascism, so I am out and using the term. A few of my fellow Tesla community people here in the UK parrot whatever the Muskbaby says, so I have wound them up by renaming my car ANTIFA to highlight how deranged this all is.

    I will not be alone in being proud of relatives who literally fought fascists. My late grandad didn't want to talk about the war, but recorded 8 hours of interviews for the IWM about his time in REME, fighting in Normandy and the Netherlands attached to the Polar Bears and gun battles with nazis in Operation Market Garden. He was antifa. He later was attached to the Paras and served in Palestine as it was founded and saw terrorist attacks on both sides as Israel was founded.

    Being anti-fascist should be normal. So let's reclaim it from the Trump fascists.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,681
    Eabhal said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    It's not a word in our political lexicon (yet), so it's indicative of someone picking up their talking points from the MAGA right. It might seem like a harmless term, but it's almost always coupled with attempts to close down protests and freedom of speech, as we saw last night (including on PB, sadly).

    Anti-anti-fascist.
    I was quoting a live interview with the Chief Executive of the Campaign against Antisemitism along other comments he made

    In this case it was an important public figure and his interview was newsworthy

    Certainly @Gardenwalker overstepping the mark with his personal comments about me and it is the first time in 11 years on here I felt I needed to make a statement in rubutal
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,421
    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
    There's a long British tradition of Antifa, from Cable St on to the "Rock against Racism" and "Anti-Nazi League" of my youth.

    Not to mention the boatloads of armed and dangerous Antifa who crossed the channel without passports in June 1944, albeit leaving rather than entering Britain.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,583
    RochdalePioneers said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
    I am anti-fascist. Which is what antifa is a literal abbreviation of.

    There is no ANTIFA other than in a fever dream of the American right. So if they - and now their shills here - want to come looking for ANTIFA then I will out myself as such to show how utterly deranged this Americanism is.

    Trump is going to use ANTIFA as the excuse to shut off the remnants of American democracy. I stand with the people opposed to Trump fascism, so I am out and using the term. A few of my fellow Tesla community people here in the UK parrot whatever the Muskbaby says, so I have wound them up by renaming my car ANTIFA to highlight how deranged this all is.

    I will not be alone in being proud of relatives who literally fought fascists. My late grandad didn't want to talk about the war, but recorded 8 hours of interviews for the IWM about his time in REME, fighting in Normandy and the Netherlands attached to the Polar Bears and gun battles with nazis in Operation Market Garden. He was antifa. He later was attached to the Paras and served in Palestine as it was founded and saw terrorist attacks on both sides as Israel was founded.

    Being anti-fascist should be normal. So let's reclaim it from the Trump fascists.
    I disagree, as it is easy to be anti-fascist to the extent that you actually develop fascist traits (see the horseshoe theory et al).

    And you can be anti-fascist without subscribing to some of the views of the American left.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,140
    Gallowgate said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    We need a PR coupon election. I am sick of FPTP - it doesn’t work with this many parties on reasonable vote shares.
    It might yet happen but we are a long way from 2029, the most likely election date. Remember the SDP whose rocket soared, fizzled, and fell to Earth.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    noneoftheabove said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread header, thanks Gareth.

    You might think the header excellent but Gareth completely ignores the elephant in the room, which is whether Reform should be abbreviated REF or RFM.
    REFUK.
    Refuk. Hence "fukers". Taz dislikes it. I get that. But its time will come, as they get exposed as the grifters they are. What else do we call them? "Reformers" is too long. "Tories" may be accurate but confusing...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,381
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I think as voters we are quite entitled to ask what a Reform Government is going to look like and what its leading policies will be. At the moment, I haven't much of an idea about the detail of Reform Britain - I imagine they'll try a much harder line on immigration which will either work, not work or have unintended consequences economically and perhaps socially but again, absent some detail, we don't know.

    On economics, I imagine it'll be about tax cuts for the very wealthy and savage spending cuts (though the County Council experience has shown the pot of savings gold at the end of the Council rainbow has been a chimera) and that will be the first problem when the traditional Labour voters and others dependent on public services see the depth of what is proposed and turn on the Government (18% after 18 months anyone, sound familiar?).

    I imagine a far more pro-Washington and pro-Israel policy which may be awkward if there is a Democrat in the White House in which case Anglo-American relations may be strained - will we see Reform activists go out and campaign for the GOP in the 2026 and 2028 elections? Farage might see Meloni as a kindred spirit (assuming she surives the 2027 election though that's probable) and perhaps Le Pen or whoever the FN candidate is if they win the Elysee but otherwise the options look limited.

    Beyond that, I see no lessening of State control and intervention, indeed more likely a strengthening of both. For all his current opposition (which I believe is opportunist), I could see a Reform Government introducing compulsory ID cards on spurious grounds of national security. I also think as the environmental consequences of climate change become more acute, the pressure on the deniers in the Reform Government will grow.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    Mexicanpete said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    What would be the difference between a Reform majority and a RefCon coalition with Jenrick as Deputy Prime Minister?
    No idea. You'd hope a condition might be not binning the OBR and therefore not trashing everyone's mortgages. Or the Conservatives go for confidence and supply and condition on spending cuts, something Reform would find very difficult to implement given their voter base.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,421
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    No way.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,057
    RochdalePioneers said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
    I am anti-fascist. Which is what antifa is a literal abbreviation of.

    There is no ANTIFA other than in a fever dream of the American right. So if they - and now their shills here - want to come looking for ANTIFA then I will out myself as such to show how utterly deranged this Americanism is.

    Trump is going to use ANTIFA as the excuse to shut off the remnants of American democracy. I stand with the people opposed to Trump fascism, so I am out and using the term. A few of my fellow Tesla community people here in the UK parrot whatever the Muskbaby says, so I have wound them up by renaming my car ANTIFA to highlight how deranged this all is.

    I will not be alone in being proud of relatives who literally fought fascists. My late grandad didn't want to talk about the war, but recorded 8 hours of interviews for the IWM about his time in REME, fighting in Normandy and the Netherlands attached to the Polar Bears and gun battles with nazis in Operation Market Garden. He was antifa. He later was attached to the Paras and served in Palestine as it was founded and saw terrorist attacks on both sides as Israel was founded.

    Being anti-fascist should be normal. So let's reclaim it from the Trump fascists.
    Antifa is a very Newspeak word, isn't it? Say it in full, and its absurdity (you're not against the fascists, does that mean you support them?) becomes obvious. But clipping it leaves a short, creepy, unnatural thing that sounds evil.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,098
    edited 7:23AM
    "There is no ANTIFA other than in a fever dream of the American right."

    I think that is being a little naive. There is definitely a loose network of far left extremists in the US happy to use violence that group under this banner. Is it being used as a ultimate bogeyman by Trump, of course. Is it relevant to the UK, no.

    The UK has its own extremist groups who hide under banners. The hardcore founders of XR wrote about how climate change wasn't the ultimate destination. And only utter morons think Tommy Ten Names is only about uniting the nations around the flag.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Eabhal said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    It's not a word in our political lexicon (yet), so it's indicative of someone picking up their talking points from the MAGA right. It might seem like a harmless term, but it's almost always coupled with attempts to close down protests and freedom of speech, as we saw last night (including on PB, sadly).

    Anti-anti-fascist.
    I was quoting a live interview with the Chief Executive of the Campaign against Antisemitism along other comments he made

    In this case it was an important public figure and his interview was newsworthy

    Certainly @Gardenwalker overstepping the mark with his personal comments about me and it is the first time in 11 years on here I felt I needed to make a statement in rubutal
    As a descriptor is is stupid - I think that is why the reaction was as it was. These are febrile times. But you weren't talking it up, just reporting it, which is why the post against you was unfair.

    "Antifa" as a descriptor for some kind of terrorist group is stupid, but it is here. Sadly. We need to disarm it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,729
    Eabhal said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    What would be the difference between a Reform majority and a RefCon coalition with Jenrick as Deputy Prime Minister?
    No idea. You'd hope a condition might be not binning the OBR and therefore not trashing everyone's mortgages. Or the Conservatives go for confidence and supply and condition on spending cuts, something Reform would find very difficult to implement given their voter base.
    As you can't guarantee any of that I believe your advice to be faulty.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,045
    Nigelb said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    She also had the good sense to decline any post on Corbyn's front bench.
    I don't know a great deal about her, but she appears a bit more sure footed than most of Starmer's cabinet.
    She’s a lawyer so she’s the best of humanity.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,140
    Software giant Palantir snubs ‘undemocratic’ digital ID scheme
    The US-based company, which had been touted as a potential bidder, said that it would not seek any contracts around it
    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/software-giant-palantir-snubs-digital-id-scheme-t0gdsknr2 (£££)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,109
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "There is no ANTIFA other than in a fever dream of the American right."

    I think that is being a little naive. There is definitely a loose network of far left extremists in the US happy to use violence that group under this banner. Is it being used as a ultimate bogeyman by Trump, of course. Is it relevant to the UK, no.

    How is it naive? We proscribe terrorist groups and rightly so. We know their leaders, their funding, their membership. We can show who they are, where they are, how they are.

    There is no ANTIFA. It does not exist. No leaders. No funding. No membership. No organisation.

    ANTIFA is how the Trump fascists label anyone they dislike who are out protesting. You describe them as a "loose network" - its not even that. Do they have a WhatsApp group, organising together? It's *an idea*. A principle. That fascism is unAmerican and yet here they are with a fascist government.

    Calling the opponents what you are is a well documented historical trope of fascism...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,726
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    No way.
    That provides an interesting pointer to the constraints on tactical voting to keep Reform out.
    What proportion of LibDems voters would vote Tory, and vice versa ?
    And LibDem / Labour ?

    Surely higher than Lab / Tory.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,263
    RochdalePioneers said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread header, thanks Gareth.

    You might think the header excellent but Gareth completely ignores the elephant in the room, which is whether Reform should be abbreviated REF or RFM.
    REFUK.
    Refuk. Hence "fukers". Taz dislikes it. I get that. But its time will come, as they get exposed as the grifters they are. What else do we call them? "Reformers" is too long. "Tories" may be accurate but confusing...
    Could be worse, a party long on deceit and fraud might get abbreviated to con.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,372
    @AnnieForTruth

    Another one of the many high profile military departures since Trump took office. Gen. Thomas Bussiere, a top Air Force General who was nominated by Trump to become the next Air Force Chief of Staff, resigned after Hegseth/Trump’s farce of a military meeting this week.

    https://x.com/AnnieForTruth/status/1973926753736536175
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,723
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    tlg86 said:

    An excellent thread header, thanks Gareth.

    You might think the header excellent but Gareth completely ignores the elephant in the room, which is whether Reform should be abbreviated REF or RFM.
    Also, Gareth writes 'shoe in' instead of 'shoo in'. A minor blemish in an otherwise excellent header.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,098
    edited 7:36AM
    RochdalePioneers said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "There is no ANTIFA other than in a fever dream of the American right."

    I think that is being a little naive. There is definitely a loose network of far left extremists in the US happy to use violence that group under this banner. Is it being used as a ultimate bogeyman by Trump, of course. Is it relevant to the UK, no.

    How is it naive? We proscribe terrorist groups and rightly so. We know their leaders, their funding, their membership. We can show who they are, where they are, how they are.

    There is no ANTIFA. It does not exist. No leaders. No funding. No membership. No organisation.

    ANTIFA is how the Trump fascists label anyone they dislike who are out protesting. You describe them as a "loose network" - its not even that. Do they have a WhatsApp group, organising together? It's *an idea*. A principle. That fascism is unAmerican and yet here they are with a fascist government.

    Calling the opponents what you are is a well documented historical trope of fascism...
    Its not just Trump that believes Antifa movement exists, the likes of the ADL acknowledge its existance and that violent extremists are known to organise under that banner. Yes they do have Signal groups etc, but it is deliberately decentralised.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,421
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    No way.
    That provides an interesting pointer to the constraints on tactical voting to keep Reform out.
    What proportion of LibDems voters would vote Tory, and vice versa ?
    And LibDem / Labour ?

    Surely higher than Lab / Tory.
    I think I would tactically vote for anyone other than the Tories if in a seat with a 2 way battle one of whom is Reform.

    But as there's a significant risk that the Tories would support a minority Reform government there's no point in a tactical vote for them. It might as well be a Reform vote.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,815
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Software giant Palantir snubs ‘undemocratic’ digital ID scheme
    The US-based company, which had been touted as a potential bidder, said that it would not seek any contracts around it
    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/software-giant-palantir-snubs-digital-id-scheme-t0gdsknr2 (£££)

    Haha.

    Negative publicity does work sometimes. There"s too many other undemocratic contracts at stake with the British government.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,583
    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    It may not be what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing, but it;s what they're doing.

    They should grow up and realise that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,421
    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    I think it pretty dumb of her. Protesting the genocide and starvation in Gaza has nothing to do with events in Manchester.

    Not that I will be protesting this weekend for anyone.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,044
    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    I’m in the same position, and my MP is relatively sensible as Tories go, if a shameless opportunist who will try to get some media or a photo out of anything that goes by. But there must be more to politics than a choice between an extremist or someone who will prop up the extremists.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,277
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    I think it pretty dumb of her. Protesting the genocide and starvation in Gaza has nothing to do with events in Manchester.

    Not that I will be protesting this weekend for anyone.
    Very early on, someone tried to join a march with a banner that called for Hamas to free the hostages. They were turned away.

    It's very clear what these demonstrations are.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    I think it pretty dumb of her. Protesting the genocide and starvation in Gaza has nothing to do with events in Manchester.

    Not that I will be protesting this weekend for anyone.
    I see that Hamas are the only “genocide” victims in history who have decided to keep the “genocide” ongoing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,372
    @AlexandruC4

    BREAKING: Gen Bryan Fenton, Commander of the US Special Operations Command signs his departure letter

    https://x.com/AlexandruC4/status/1973865861623799890
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,044
    Mexicanpete said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    What would be the difference between a Reform majority and a RefCon coalition with Jenrick as Deputy Prime Minister?
    The former is more likely to introduce PR?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,008
    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    I think it pretty dumb of her. Protesting the genocide and starvation in Gaza has nothing to do with events in Manchester.

    Not that I will be protesting this weekend for anyone.
    Very early on, someone tried to join a march with a banner that called for Hamas to free the hostages. They were turned away.

    It's very clear what these demonstrations are.
    Is that true? That’s mental
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,026
    JosiasJessop said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    It may not be what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing, but it;s what they're doing.

    They should grow up and realise that.
    I found the far-right protests pretty intimidating, as did many others. Perhaps they shouldn't protest either?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,726
    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    No she isn't.
    She's saying that demonstrations this weekend might have that effect.

    Is it really right to interpret a suggestion that they be temporarily postponed in that way ?

    I entirely agree with the proposition (which seems also to be yours) that the Israeli government should not be equated in any way with the British Jewish population, and that protests against that government should not be understood as any kind of attack on British Jews.

    But reality only partially conforms with that, and pretending otherwise is disingenuous.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,815
    edited 7:48AM
    The majority of protestors are manly anti-zionist, with a large-ish minority also holding anti-semitic views. The protests should definitely not be mainly identified with Hamas, though.

    I wouldn't usually agree with Mahmoud, but I think the suggestion of cooling the temperature without explicitly condemning the protests is actually quite a good one in this case, and shows her as a potentially more canny and skilful politician than I thought.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,726
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    You should vote for the Conservatives in this scenario. Jenrick is clearly driven by cold political ambition rather than some MAGA ideology; the man was a Cameroon once, voted Remain.

    That kind of tactical voting might prevent a Reform majority, and mitigate some of the more extreme excesses.
    No way.
    That provides an interesting pointer to the constraints on tactical voting to keep Reform out.
    What proportion of LibDems voters would vote Tory, and vice versa ?
    And LibDem / Labour ?

    Surely higher than Lab / Tory.
    I think I would tactically vote for anyone other than the Tories if in a seat with a 2 way battle one of whom is Reform.

    But as there's a significant risk that the Tories would support a minority Reform government there's no point in a tactical vote for them. It might as well be a Reform vote.
    Oh, I wouldn't argue with that.
    I was wondering more about the general case.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,726
    Eabhal said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    It may not be what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing, but it;s what they're doing.

    They should grow up and realise that.
    I found the far-right protests pretty intimidating, as did many others. Perhaps they shouldn't protest either?
    Certainly not this weekend.
    But I'm not expecting a "little love or solidarity" from that crew.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,729
    edited 7:48AM
    Eabhal said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    It may not be what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing, but it;s what they're doing.

    They should grow up and realise that.
    I found the far-right protests pretty intimidating, as did many others. Perhaps they shouldn't protest either?
    Hang on! That would be a curtailment of their free speech.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,057
    Eabhal said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    It may not be what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing, but it;s what they're doing.

    They should grow up and realise that.
    I found the far-right protests pretty intimidating, as did many others. Perhaps they shouldn't protest either?
    Of course they shouldn't.

    But.

    If we all carry on protesting because we're justified in doing so, the cycle just keeps going and keeps getting louder, as we're seeing.

    Even if it's true that the other lot really ought to step back first, none of us can make that happen. The only way to break the feedback loop is to break it ourselves.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,201
    edited 7:52AM
    What the polls say and what actually happens are not the same. Ask Teresa May.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,583
    Eabhal said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    It may not be what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing, but it;s what they're doing.

    They should grow up and realise that.
    I found the far-right protests pretty intimidating, as did many others. Perhaps they shouldn't protest either?
    Not this weekend, no.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 26,053
    Gallowgate said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    I think it pretty dumb of her. Protesting the genocide and starvation in Gaza has nothing to do with events in Manchester.

    Not that I will be protesting this weekend for anyone.
    I see that Hamas are the only “genocide” victims in history who have decided to keep the “genocide” ongoing.
    Indeed, its farcical.

    Hamas could end this conflict at any time by laying down their arms, as they should, and surrendering unconditionally.

    They choose not to, that's their choice, not Israel's. Israel has offered peace, Hamas have rejected it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,254
    My factoid of the day so far:

    Bitcoin mining took 2% of US electric power last year.

    Telegraph.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,583
    Foxy said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Good morning and thank you

    It was one of several comments made by an important public figure in the fight against anti semiitism live in Sky
    And that's why its right to post it here. Its part of the discussion even if what they said is rampant bullshit. Sadly we will hear a lot about "antifa" as we continue down the Farage Trump Putin political axis. When they look for antifa, send them in my direction. I am antifa.
    Are you? How do you define Antifa, and how are *you* Antifa?

    (Personally, I think defining yourself by that Americanism is deeply unhelpful...)
    There's a long British tradition of Antifa, from Cable St on to the "Rock against Racism" and "Anti-Nazi League" of my youth.

    Not to mention the boatloads of armed and dangerous Antifa who crossed the channel without passports in June 1944, albeit leaving rather than entering Britain.
    That's anti-fascism. It's not necessarily synonymous with the US groups' aims.

    You can have anti-fascists on the centre-right as well, and I fear the hard-left Communists are no better than fascists.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,800
    Good morning all.
    ]
    Impressive analysis Mr G. Thanks.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,277
    Foxy said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Foxy said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Good:

    NEW: Home secretary Shabana Mahmood urges pro-Palestine protesters to consider not taking part in marches this weekend.

    "Imagine if you lost a loved one to a terror attack in this country ... sometimes a little unity, a little solidarity, some love to other people is required"

    https://bsky.app/profile/kevinschofied.bsky.social/post/3m2biudwwps22

    As someone was nailed to a tree for saying, the only way things like this stop escalating is someone stepping back from the anger one feels entitled to.

    I don't think that's smart actually. She's by implication equating protesting Gaza with intimidating the Jewish community. That might be what it feels like for British Jews but it certainly isn't what (most) protestors consider themselves to be doing.

    This is the same Labour government locking people up for wearing t-shirts, and continues to support Netanyahu's government with arms sales. They have no credibility whatsoever in that part of our society and I suspect the protests will continue over the weekend - perhaps with more vigour.
    I think it pretty dumb of her. Protesting the genocide and starvation in Gaza has nothing to do with events in Manchester.

    Not that I will be protesting this weekend for anyone.
    I see that Hamas are the only “genocide” victims in history who have decided to keep the “genocide” ongoing.
    Conflating Hamas and all Gazans is no different to conflating the IDF with all Jews.
    Don't you mean conflating the IDF with all Israelis?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,254
    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4

    Shabana Mahmood admits that she does not have the power to ban the Palestine Action protest this weekend.

    https://x.com/kateferguson4/status/1974013172207005806


    ====

    Is this true?
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