If there were an election tomorrow the Tories would be banjaxed – politicalbetting.com
If there were an election tomorrow the Tories would be banjaxed – politicalbetting.com
Sky's @SamCoatesSky breaks down new YouGov polling which would, if proven to be correct, give Reform UK the keys to No 10 ??Full story ? https://t.co/QVi0fbmgQ7 pic.twitter.com/AFxJXYBRO3
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Same goes for the Lib Dems.
Time to call these Reformers to account.
https://drhow.substack.com/p/id-cards-on-a-loop?r=2feid8
So an overall majority for Reform is odds *off*
Lots of love for @HYUFD, his wife and family on here after his awful news of the still birth of their first child
This is the forum at its best and I still feel shock and dismay at his news
Continuing love and thoughts
On topic
Ironically the conservatives would almost certainly be in a coalition with Reform if this result happened, though 4 years is a longtime for Farage to keep up his far right rhetoric
News media are all desperate for eyeballs, so it's in their interests to hype things up to get and keep the public's attention.
Green hold in Katie Lams seat in Kent with a split ConRef vote. Tight fight in the Weald likely!
Rolvenden & Tenterden West (Ashford) Council By-Election Result:
🌍 GRN: 36.5% (-16.9)
➡️ RFM: 31.6% (New)
🌳 CON: 27.9% (-10.3)
🔶 LDM: 2.6% (New)
🌹 LAB: 1.4% (-7.0)
Green HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
Should this happen then you would have the Tory leader peacocking about thinking they hold the balance of power. Despite getting scunnered that they get a seat at the cabinet table etc.
Farage would tell them to Do One. Challenge the Tories to vote them down - because if you got a Tory leader whipping their MPs to vote against Reform they would be gone quickly. To say nothing of being reduced to taxi size at the next election.
No coalition would be needed.
Though this scenario is one of the more optimistic for the Tories. 45 seats? A lot compared to some polls...
I appreciate constituency-level analysis with an MRP is a bit silly, but if the Conservatives really are on track to lose the Scottish border seats to Reform then they are doomed.
Labour would have to show tangible results that ID cards have significantly reduced illegal migration and illegal working and made life easier for citizens for this policy to have any hope of helping them .
Given how long this system will take to set up and then a grace period to allow everyone to get it there’s little chance of this being up and running by the time of the next election .
If the May elections are as is likely a disaster for Labour and this ID policy is seen to be a part of that then Starmer is in real trouble . It also means that anyone who wants to challenge Starmer would have had to be against the new ID system from the start otherwise they’re already starting from a bad position.
Normally you elect MPs and if one party has a majority of MPs they can control the Commons and thus form the government.
But the lived reality of the Farage party - in whichever guise - is that they fall out and fall apart at pace. We're already seeing this at council level. Nationally its hard to keep track of how many MPs they have in any given week. And we have an official splinter in the form of AdvanceUK.
Whatever majority Farage got would not be stable...
Farage's catastrophic paracetamol-autism interview with Ferrari on LBC led every LBC bulletin on Wednesday and was picked up by ITV. Absolutely nothing from the BBC. Zip, nada, nothing. Chris Mason's fawning eulogy on the nature of the Reform Conference was quite remarkable and drove a coach and horse through the BBC's impartiality remit.
Call the beggars out!
https://x.com/reformexposed/status/1971327874616656040?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
https://x.com/reformexposed/status/1971289547804963182?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
https://x.com/reformexposed/status/1971326532179329136?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Prediction, if one of the dystopian versions of our future involves Labour enacting ID cards and Reform forming a government in 2029, the latter wouldn’t lift a finger to repeal the legislation.
Well, maybe a motion to put more Union flags on it.
I'm still not voting Reform.
My point about slippery Nige and co still stands.
I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.
The Burnham thing was odd in that he would have been taken more seriously had he been a
PMMP. Perhaps he saw his chances of a safe seat being compromised by No. 10 and decided to lash out.I’m glad he’s finally settled on something 15 months in. How long will this relaunch last?
Not exactly inspirational is it, that your governments purpose is being against something rather than what it might do itself?
Often not even a passport will do and you have to provide utility bills and the like.
Im not sure what your objections are to having a smartphone, but having a small personal computer with you is great. Not only is it great on the move for maps, tickets, train schedules, sat nav, digital radio etc but I do most of my small personal computing tasks on it. I rarely make calls or send/receive texts.
It's popularity will depend on how competently it's administered. If they award this to Capita then Westminster could be ablaze within months of it going live.
The trickle of stories about ID theft to take out Universal Credit loans etc and the ensuing Kafkaesque nightmares does not bode well.
I suspect that the big announcement rather than implementing it quietly will prove to be a major mis-step by Starmer.
That looks very optimistic to me given the time needed to consult, enact the primary legislation and to build and test everything.
I still think the lack of mandate to do anything in this sphere is deeply concerning.
Will that be an option for those without a smartphone, I wonder.
15 months after winning a HUGE landslide the government are now polling distant 2nd at best - or 3rd at worst. With Starmer the least popular PM ever (and that's with recent stiff opposition). With rebellion in the ranks and the King in the North on manoeuvres.
What is the government's Big Plan to win back support and transform the political agenda? Mandatory digital ID cards! How to keep digging from the bottom of the pit.
Are they this disconnected from reality already?
An employer can log in and check you are real and allowed to be here.
You can have a version of it on your mobile but she is saying that it won’t be compulsory to have.
That’s the general gist I got.
When a party has been out of power for 11 years, people in a devolved authority should be a good source of experience*. I know he is old and probably wanted to retire, but in other circumstances it would have surely been sensible to offer Mark Drakeford a cabinet role.
*er, OK, Boris
Lindsay Halligan, the newly-installed US Attorney prosecuting James Comey at President Trump's direction, is an insurance attorney and a Miss Colorado finalist. She has never prosecuted a case.
https://x.com/KyleClark/status/1971396750771728672
Unless there are mass resignations at the DOJ in protest, then it's anther step towards authoritarianism, where the law is secondary to the whims of the president.
You'd think they would do anything to stop Farage, but I always feel there's an undercurrent of extreme dislike of Labour amongst some Lib Dems I can't quite fathom...
1. Rejoin the EU without a referendum. That would kill Farage at a stroke
2. Introduce PR (Ditto)
3. Deleted (Bad taste)
4. (Ditto)
The Ming Vase strategy has been the death of this government. It’s biggest misstep. The second was that the only policy they came out with (not to raise IT/NI/VAT) hamstrung them on fiscal policy.
So you have a government with no mandate for anything, with no money, with limited scope to pull the fiscal levers in a way that would help, and with a gang of backbenchers who don’t feel beholden to any kind of policy agenda.
It has been an utter disaster.
https://x.com/shashj/status/1971326756692054355
A Federal UK is the obvious solution.
Supporting such a government would be anti-democratic and also a poisoned chalice at the next GE.
On the other hand, if Farage leads Reform to 300+ seats and all the splinter parties are obliterated, then that might serve as an object lesson to potential rebels.
Being disconnected from reality is the prevailing zeitgeist.
2) is admitting defeat for the Labour Party.
The problem the government has is that it is mired in Process. Nothing can be done because it takes 5+years to get the legal comedies sorted out.
Among other things, 1) would require accession talks with the EU. There is simply no way to get those done inside a decade. There would also be none-stop legal challenges in the U.K. courts.
2) would require a project to rework the UK electoral system. Can’t be done inside 5 years. Again, all the legal cases
I wouldn’t have a problem with an employer or a estate agent or bank having controlled access to a page generated from it proving who I was and I was allowed to live and work here as would save loads of time as would cover their arses as well that they have done a valid check. It would remove the need for lots of different companies etc to have to collect and store your docs like passport copies.
So for example in the UK if there was a central gov system where you load up your standard sort of DD/KYC docs and you have an account number and an ap firstly you can go in to one place and update addresses, pay tax etc in one easy place.
There could then be an option for others to check - you go in to open a new bank account and the banker enters your gov ID number on the gov site which sends you an access permission notification on your phone which you authorise and the banker can see all your official details, passport, etc etc, download a confirmation from the system and save themselves and you a ton of paperwork.
Similarly if someone is going for a job the employer has to check the system and see that you have permission to work in UK and download the confirmation. The employer knows they aren’t illegally employing and they don’t have a leg to stand on if they don’t bother with the check.
The ap could also have an official photo ID that covers driving licence so you can use it for buying age restricted goods, ID for flights in UK, Ireland etc, as it saves having a plastic card on you if you so wish but is secure enough to trust.
Labour need to change the narrative. I don't say Starmer because I've already written him off. Something *big* to change direction with a new leader. PR would be a big progressive leap forward - simply adopt one of the various proportional systems already in use. Electoral Commission can get it done in time for the next election.
As for yerp, they won't let us back in. Not with Ingsoc on the rise. That isn't the exercise. It's to utterly transform the political narrative. Brexit has made us poorer, more isolated, more exposed to migration etc etc etc and its all Farage's fault.
The fanbois will be outraged, but the concept is that you get all the people who are voting Reform because they are poorer, more isolated and fed up with migration to recognise that its all Brexit...
What is really angering farmers is Tory tossers gleefully thinking the farmer vote is theirs by rights whilst farmers say where's my free trade, where's my subsidy that you failed to deliver?
Its that smug Tory arrogance winding them up as much as the financial mess many find themselves in. At least that's what they're telling us. Tories see the Tractor of Truth thing as anti-Labour. It's also anti-Tory and they're utterly tone deaf to the mess they have imposed on their former supporters.
Perhaps he was holding one of his phones?
Have seen the tragic news from @HYUFD and his wife. It has cast a shadow over a glorious morning in rural Derbyshire.
My thoughts and condolences to you both and I can but hope you will find strength in your faith and the support and love of friends and family.
So Stability isn't exactly Labour's forte either.
As for the Tories, the five years were hardly stable.
We're not exactly in stable times for anyone.
This is Home Office civil service overreach trying to get through an authoritarian policy they already wanted, and it has bugger all to do with deterring illegal migrants as those hiring them cash in hand without checking ID won't be affected by new regulations one bit.
I can currently, and very handily even get and pay for my scallop diving permit or top up Prisoners’ bank accounts if I have any friends or family in there.
https://one.gov.je/myservices?_ga=2.263066828.1398647101.1579509654-1748901107.1552405005&_gl=1*gudwqp*_ga*MTc5MzExNzU0OC4xNzU3NzU5NDYw*_ga_07GM08Q17P*czE3NTg4NzM3NjgkbzE0JGcxJHQxNzU4ODczNzk1JGozNSRsMCRoMA..
There are constantly more services being added but it’s one nice easy place.
Ref 27(+1)
Lab 21 (-2)
Con 17 (-1)
LD 15 (=)
Grn 11 (=)
SNP 3(=)
PC 1 (=)
The YouGov survey (is it an MRP?) is disastrous for Labour and cataclysmic for the Conservatives. Reform’s vote share at 27% would be even more “loveless” than that achieved by Starmer in July 2024. As others have suggested, trying to govern as a minority administration with 300+ new MPs will be difficult and inherently destabilising but assuming the SF MPs don’t take their seats they are only about ten short of a majority so it would require ALL the opposition parties to combine to vote them down.
We are, I suspect, on these numbers, looking at a May 2029 election and the world will be a very different place. Subject to constitutional shenanigans, Trump will have left the White House and whether Gaza or even the Ukraine will have the salience then they do now is uncertain. Where will immigration sit in the minds of the electorate?