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System Posts: 12,578
edited June 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Nick Clegg lead the Lib Dems at the general election?

Electorally, they’ve had three years of successive net loss of councillors in the local elections, finishing seventh and eighth by-elections, losing the AV referendum, House of Lords reform foundering, and that’s before we move onto the opinion polls, which has seen the Liberal Democrats consistently polling in single digits/behind UKIP, even with the most recent ICM poll, they…

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  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited June 2013
    No. He will step down around March 2015, give platitudes about the success of the coalition but state that now a new person should take the Lib Dems forward into the next general election - who is outwith the baggage associated with Clegg.

    Well that would be the entirely sensible way to play it anyway, allows the new LD leader a honeymoon boost right before the GE. Also this means that whatever their faults they will have stuck an entire term in Gov't without precipitating an early GE.

    This would be the best option.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    PMQ's is reminding me of Monday's Game of Thrones.

    Labour appear to be the Starks.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Ed not having a great day in PMQs.....looks like it will be up to disobliging back bench Tories to upset Cameron.....'The people's party does not trust the people' (on an EU referendum)....
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    This is poor from Cameron, even by his half-arsed complacent standards. I'm getting fed up of him answering any question with some spoon-fed quote which supposedly embarrasses the Opposition or tractor stats undermining Labour's record.

    Not only does he look hopeless, he makes hopeless Ed look halfway decent.

    Where is the command of his brief, confidence in his policies, steely determination and wit that Blair or Thatcher had?

    You can see why Farage senses this is his moment, with voters asked to choose between two uninspiring out of their depth mediocrities.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rEd and Labour today

    "Our Nhs"

    "Everyone in the NHS knows.."

    repeatedly.

  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    On topic - Clegg will fight 2015, and as you suggest, the Lib Dems will do better than current polling suggests.....looks like the Labour line has gone out 'focus on A&E...' which given the thumping Miliband got may not be entirely wise....
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    "policy altering substances..."

    A good, winning line by Cameron. Genuinely funny, but needed better delivery.
  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Yes he will, for the reasons you list. And, yes, if the LibDems have even a scintilla of sense, they (and the Tories) will follow Churchill's advice to the letter, as it were. It would be utterly barmy to give up now - it would be like surrendering just after Tobruk, as things began to turn.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TGOHF said:

    PMQ's is reminding me of Monday's Game of Thrones.

    Labour appear to be the Starks.

    The Ed Wedding?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    JosiasJessop said:

    "policy altering substances..."

    A good, winning line by Cameron. Genuinely funny, but needed better delivery.

    Sets up a nice photoshop in tomorrow's Sun - rEd on the beach in Ibiza with sun hat and rave beads.
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Have to say the "people's party" comment by Dave was the high point so far.

    Then he spoiled it by making some jokey drugs reference to Ibiza, almost suggesting that he went there on holiday for that sole purpose. Odd, and not very Prime Ministerial.

    So far, apart from one sensible question on Syria from a sensible Tory, each Tory MP has asked about the EU and parliamentary procedure - where's the questions on growth and the key issues of the day that matter to the man on the street?
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Cameron back on top form at PMQ's,given that labour have given him some red meat on they own policies.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bob__Sykes said:

    This is poor from Cameron, even by his half-arsed complacent standards. I'm getting fed up of him answering any question with some spoon-fed quote which supposedly embarrasses the Opposition or tractor stats undermining Labour's record.

    Not only does he look hopeless, he makes hopeless Ed look halfway decent.

    Where is the command of his brief, confidence in his policies, steely determination and wit that Blair or Thatcher had?

    You can see why Farage senses this is his moment, with voters asked to choose between two uninspiring out of their depth mediocrities.

    Ukip are now the last party supporting winter fuel payments and child benefits for the top earners.

    And also an unlimited legal aid budget.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Patrick Wintour tweets: "Cameron at PMQs: "I know I've been on holiday in Ibiza but [Labour] have been the ones taking policy-altering substances" Class A joke."
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Slackbladder said:

    TGOHF said:

    PMQ's is reminding me of Monday's Game of Thrones.

    Labour appear to be the Starks.

    The Ed Wedding?
    I think it's more the start of his funeral.
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Cameron's big theme today is clearly Labour changing their policies.

    Isn't he making a hostage to fortune for the next time he inevitably has to do the same - surely the 2015 Tory manifesto is going to contain some shifts on what went for this parliament?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Please, everyone one knows Ed Miliband is Hodor.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Ed going on A&E waiting time Questions would have been good accept ed's own party of government in wales is failing on the same subject for a number of years and not in months.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Why is the PM doing Labour's PR job for them today?

    Schoolboy error.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Cameron's big theme today is clearly Labour changing their policies.

    Isn't he making a hostage to fortune for the next time he inevitably has to do the same - surely the 2015 Tory manifesto is going to contain some shifts on what went for this parliament?

    Bob - you sound really happy at the misfortune of Labour - no really.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Cameron's big theme today is clearly Labour changing their policies.

    Isn't he making a hostage to fortune for the next time he inevitably has to do the same - surely the 2015 Tory manifesto is going to contain some shifts on what went for this parliament?

    It is much less about policy differences or political tactics than about the display of energy and momentum.

    Cameron appears refreshed and ready for battle.

    Miliband appeared to have spent the Whitsun recess in convalescence.

    Cameron wins on pulse rate alone.
  • BoredInParis
    BoredInParis Posts: 46
    If this is the rEd wedding, which back-bencher is going to have the pleasure of being Grey Wind?
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    TGOHF said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    "policy altering substances..."

    A good, winning line by Cameron. Genuinely funny, but needed better delivery.

    Sets up a nice photoshop in tomorrow's Sun - rEd on the beach in Ibiza with sun hat and rave beads.
    I get an image of Cameron and Miliband in the Ebeneezer Goode video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFJdUJg4wOk

    Miliband as Mr C and Cameron as the Jerry Sadowitz character?

    It could explain their policies... ;-)
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Off-topic:

    GeoffM's mob seem to be hosting our-boys on 10-07-2013. Can he get hold of some complementary tickets (with flights and accomodation throw-in)...?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/teams/charlton-athletic
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    Why is the PM doing Labour's PR job for them today?

    Schoolboy error.

    I essentially agree. Though the Conservatives are probably enjoying having a rare day's fun at Labour's expense. It's a bit like the Addams family having a daytrip to Blackpool.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Another 'U-turn' on Labour Health Policy 'they are having so many U-turns they should have a Grand Prix'....
  • anotherDave
    anotherDave Posts: 6,746
    I'm curious to see if being clearly the fourth party in polls behind UKIP, will drive LD support lower.

    As I understand it, polling, or publicity of poll results, is supposed to have an effect on voter behaviour.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Cameron on andy burnham shaking his head on labour cuts to the health service,'So many u-turns,we should be having a grand prix' ;-)
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Tykejohnno said:

    Cameron on andy burnham shaking his head on labour cuts to the health service,'So many u-turns,we should be having a grand prix' ;-)

    really why do labour field Andy Burnham ? A frozen chicken could do a better job.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,859
    Returning to the post: Why would Clegg want to go? He has every chance of being in Lab-Lib cabinet next time.
  • Bobajob
    Bobajob Posts: 1,536
    JosiasJessop said:

    TGOHF said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    "policy altering substances..."

    A good, winning line by Cameron. Genuinely funny, but needed better delivery.

    Sets up a nice photoshop in tomorrow's Sun - rEd on the beach in Ibiza with sun hat and rave beads.
    I get an image of Cameron and Miliband in the Ebeneezer Goode video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFJdUJg4wOk

    Miliband as Mr C and Cameron as the Jerry Sadowitz character?

    It could explain their policies... ;-)
    :) Brings back a few memories. And those girls dancing in the background are total club honeys.

    Oh to be back in the nineties in the sweet sunshine.

  • Bobajob
    Bobajob Posts: 1,536
    Bobajob said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    TGOHF said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    "policy altering substances..."

    A good, winning line by Cameron. Genuinely funny, but needed better delivery.

    Sets up a nice photoshop in tomorrow's Sun - rEd on the beach in Ibiza with sun hat and rave beads.
    I get an image of Cameron and Miliband in the Ebeneezer Goode video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFJdUJg4wOk

    Miliband as Mr C and Cameron as the Jerry Sadowitz character?

    It could explain their policies... ;-)
    :) Brings back a few memories. And those girls dancing in the background are total club honeys.

    Oh to be back in the nineties in the sweet sunshine.

    Luciana Berger and Rowenna Davis?

  • Bobajob
    Bobajob Posts: 1,536
    antifrank said:

    Jonathan said:

    Why is the PM doing Labour's PR job for them today?

    Schoolboy error.

    I essentially agree. Though the Conservatives are probably enjoying having a rare day's fun at Labour's expense. It's a bit like the Addams family having a daytrip to Blackpool.
    Some colourful analogies on here today. Long may they continue.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    edited June 2013
    Seriously, what Grands Prix does David Cameron watch?

    I can't recall many u-turns in the Grands Prix I've watched.

    Though the policy altering substances gag was funny, does Dave really want people asking him questions about drugs all over again
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Seriously, what Grand Prixs does David Cameron watch?

    I can't recall many u-turns in the Grand Prixs I've watched.

    Though the policy altering substances gag was funny, does Dave really want people asking him questions about drugs all over again

    Try Raikkonen's trip through the wilderness at last year's Brazil GP:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMnKm2bbNZk
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Eagles, there's a u-turn in Monaco, and a famous hairpin at Montreal.

    And it's Grands Prix (like courts martial or passers-by).
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,802
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, there's a u-turn in Monaco, and a famous hairpin at Montreal.

    And it's Grands Prix (like courts martial or passers-by).

    I knew that, bah.

    Considering I wrote a French phrase into the thread header, I'm disappointed in myself for my lack of nous when it comes French,
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Government in popular policy shock:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22770064

    As flagged by Miss Carola last night, but the comments, of which there are many, seem very enthusiastic.
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, there's a u-turn in Monaco, and a famous hairpin at Montreal.

    And it's Grands Prix (like courts martial or passers-by).

    Quite right, MD.

    Grand Prixs would be open to unfortunate mispronunciation.

  • BoredInParis
    BoredInParis Posts: 46
    edited June 2013
    I can almost imagine the scene in the Guardian newsroom

    "HAHA we've got him, there aren't U-turns in Grands Prix, this will bring him down, just you see"

    Its through the looking glass material.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Oh, speaking of Grands Prix, my F1 stuff has moved [perhaps on a temporary basis] to http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/

    I might also post some tennis stuff or non-betting F1 things there too. Not sure yet. The move is solely because of spam on pb2, which is a shame as I've very much enjoyed posting there since 2009.
  • glassfet
    glassfet Posts: 220
    @PickardJE: 5-second PMQs summary: Ed Miliband wants to talk about NHS because polls say people trust Labour on that issue. Quieter on benefits/economy.
  • Bobajob
    Bobajob Posts: 1,536
    AveryLP said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Cameron's big theme today is clearly Labour changing their policies.

    Isn't he making a hostage to fortune for the next time he inevitably has to do the same - surely the 2015 Tory manifesto is going to contain some shifts on what went for this parliament?

    It is much less about policy differences or political tactics than about the display of energy and momentum.

    Cameron appears refreshed and ready for battle.

    Miliband appeared to have spent the Whitsun recess in convalescence.

    Cameron wins on pulse rate alone.
    Jonathan said:

    Why is the PM doing Labour's PR job for them today?

    Schoolboy error.

    Well quite. I'm not sure this "u-turn" (AKA being sensible, given they can only work with the fiscal mess Ozzy has left them) is quite the disaster for Ed Miliband that our Tory friends think it is.

    It fails the basic Bobajob test which is, "were the situation reversed would the PB Tories also have deemed it a disaster?" (i.e had Labour agreed to exceed Tory spending plans)

    Of course the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. Draw your own conclusions...

  • glassfet
    glassfet Posts: 220
    Bobajob said:

    It fails the basic Bobajob test which is, "were the situation reversed would the PB Tories also have deemed it a disaster?" (i.e had Labour agreed to exceed Tory spending plans)

    Of course the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. Draw your own conclusions...

    You are taking too narrow a view.

    Labour promising to exceed Tory spending plans (which they are still doing BTW) is a disaster electorally. Osborne has comprehensively won the spending argument.

    Labour trashing universal benefits is ALSO a disaster for them. It upsets a large part of their core vote and upsets the Unions.

    Win-win.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Lovely sunny day here, I forgot about PMQ's. Was it fun>?? Was Ed Balls looking happy?
  • Mick_Pork
    Mick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited June 2013
    "as evidenced by Nick Clegg recently confirming that the coalition will last until 2015."

    Because it was really likely that he would say anything else right now wasn't it?

    "there’s not been quite so much speculation about Nick Clegg’s leadership in recent weeks."

    Clegg's still toxic, the lib dems are still polling terribly while their base gets pounded, so the only thing that keeps Clegg safe is that none of his likely replacements wants to take over as coalition sh*t magnet for the next couple of years.

    Far better to wait until the best moment for a possible honeymoon period election campaign for a new face. The excuses will also have totally run out for Clegg after the lib dem base gets hammered next year as well as with likely dire EU elections.
  • Bobajob
    Bobajob Posts: 1,536
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Government in popular policy shock:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22770064

    As flagged by Miss Carola last night, but the comments, of which there are many, seem very enthusiastic.

    One for the perforated leather glove brigade – how is the government going to enforce this?

  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    "Yet this is exactly what the religious opponents of the Bill believe: that Lord Jenkin’s marriage, and millions like it, will be devalued by the freedom of gay couples to join the ranks of the wed. They are offended by the prospect. They wish to wreck the whole thing.

    This is not “religious freedom” but theocracy-by-stealth — and a firm distinction must be drawn between the two. In a pluralist society there is no right not to be offended. There is no right to impose your doctrines on the lives of others; no right to withhold equal access to an institution from a particular group because such access transgresses your private morality.

    Yet this is precisely what the opponents of gay marriage demand — and it would be foolishly complacent to imagine they will throw in the towel. What started life as a straightforward incremental reform has become the civil rights issue for which the Cameron generation will be remembered."

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/matthew-dancona-opponents-of-gay-marriage-wont-call-it-a-day-yet-8645648.html
  • Bobajob
    Bobajob Posts: 1,536
    glassfet said:

    Bobajob said:

    It fails the basic Bobajob test which is, "were the situation reversed would the PB Tories also have deemed it a disaster?" (i.e had Labour agreed to exceed Tory spending plans)

    Of course the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. Draw your own conclusions...

    You are taking too narrow a view.

    Labour promising to exceed Tory spending plans (which they are still doing BTW) is a disaster electorally. Osborne has comprehensively won the spending argument.

    Labour trashing universal benefits is ALSO a disaster for them. It upsets a large part of their core vote and upsets the Unions.

    Win-win.
    We'll see...

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2013
    Bobajob said:

    AveryLP said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Cameron's big theme today is clearly Labour changing their policies.

    Isn't he making a hostage to fortune for the next time he inevitably has to do the same - surely the 2015 Tory manifesto is going to contain some shifts on what went for this parliament?

    It is much less about policy differences or political tactics than about the display of energy and momentum.

    Cameron appears refreshed and ready for battle.

    Miliband appeared to have spent the Whitsun recess in convalescence.

    Cameron wins on pulse rate alone.
    Jonathan said:

    Why is the PM doing Labour's PR job for them today?

    Schoolboy error.

    Well quite. I'm not sure this "u-turn" (AKA being sensible, given they can only work with the fiscal mess Ozzy has left them) is quite the disaster for Ed Miliband that our Tory friends think it is.

    It fails the basic Bobajob test which is, "were the situation reversed would the PB Tories also have deemed it a disaster?" (i.e had Labour agreed to exceed Tory spending plans)

    Of course the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. Draw your own conclusions...

    It is far more a disaster for Ed Balls than Ed Miliband.

    Osborne setting spending plans now for 2015-16 has constrained Balls's ability to differentiate Labour from Tory policy at the next General Election.

    It also makes the whole 'austerity is failing' message that much weaker. Current growth rates will see rapid deficit reduction return and diminish the apparent need for further cuts. So Osborne getting commitments to further cuts in June is clever politics.

    Read Ed Balls's recent speech in full and you will see his anger and frustration is evident in every paragraph.

    For Ed M, the solution is simple. Replace Balls before the election.

  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    JosiasJessop said:

    Try Raikkonen's trip through the wilderness at last year's Brazil GP:

    Raikkonen demonstrates his rallying experience.
  • Fenster
    Fenster Posts: 2,115
    Bobajob said:

    AveryLP said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Cameron's big theme today is clearly Labour changing their policies.

    Isn't he making a hostage to fortune for the next time he inevitably has to do the same - surely the 2015 Tory manifesto is going to contain some shifts on what went for this parliament?

    It is much less about policy differences or political tactics than about the display of energy and momentum.

    Cameron appears refreshed and ready for battle.

    Miliband appeared to have spent the Whitsun recess in convalescence.

    Cameron wins on pulse rate alone.
    Jonathan said:

    Why is the PM doing Labour's PR job for them today?

    Schoolboy error.

    Well quite. I'm not sure this "u-turn" (AKA being sensible, given they can only work with the fiscal mess Ozzy has left them) is quite the disaster for Ed Miliband that our Tory friends think it is.

    It fails the basic Bobajob test which is, "were the situation reversed would the PB Tories also have deemed it a disaster?" (i.e had Labour agreed to exceed Tory spending plans)

    Of course the answer to that question is an emphatic yes. Draw your own conclusions...

    I think the point is, vis a vis the child benefit plans, that Labour have spent three years opposing every coalition cut and positioned themselves as the party who will provide Christmas every day for the poor. They have recruited much support and inflamed much coalition-hatred in the process, particularly from the magic-money-tree folk and the deficit-deniers.

    Those magic-money-tree folk are now having the scales removed from their eyes with
    pliers.

    This sanity from the two Eds is bound to affect their vote. For starters, where will all those protest-voting, hate the world, dreamy-eyed 2010 voting Lib Dems go?

    Labour would've been better served from the start to admit we are in the shit and spent the last three years thinking up radical yet sensible ways of how to deal with it.

    Promising more borrowing and more spending and maintenance of our mid-noughties standard of living was never going to work.

    And things will really hit the fan when the unions find out that Labour won't be job creating in the public sector during their next term in office.
  • glassfet
    glassfet Posts: 220
    AveryLP said:


    For Ed M, the solution is simple. Replace Balls before the election.

    With Alistair "Where did I put that £500bn?" Darling
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    rottenborough said:

    Returning to the post: Why would Clegg want to go? He has every chance of being in Con-Lib cabinet next time.

    Fixed that for you :D
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    I hardly think many people will be saying 'c'est magnifique' about the Lib Dems role in the current government. 3 years of no growth, the NHS disorganisation, Michael Gove's almost comical return to victorian values in our education system. What have the Lib Dems achieved other than acting as a slight brake on the Tories wilder ideas? Virtually nothing. They've even derailed their ambitions for electoral reform by demanding a referendum on a voting system they don't even like. Clegg has got virtually everything wrong, he's a poor political strategist and the image is of a man who just does what's necessary to stay in power. What does he believe in? The EU we can assume and some social liberalism, but that's about it.

    Oh and for those who think the economy is turning around and this government is getting things right, heed the words of Albert Edwards, head of international strategy at Societe Generale who's got some choice words for Osborne's mad Help To Buy scheme.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic

    Where were the lib Dems in stopping this craziness? It's safe to say now that this 2010 Lib Dem voter has been lost.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrankBooth said:

    I hardly think many people will be saying 'c'est magnifique' about the Lib Dems role in the current government. 3 years of no growth, the NHS disorganisation, Michael Gove's almost comical return to victorian values in our education system. What have the Lib Dems achieved other than acting as a slight brake on the Tories wilder ideas? Virtually nothing. They've even derailed their ambitions for electoral reform by demanding a referendum on a voting system they don't even like. Clegg has got virtually everything wrong, he's a poor political strategist and the image is of a man who just does what's necessary to stay in power. What does he believe in? The EU we can assume and some social liberalism, but that's about it.

    Oh and for those who think the economy is turning around and this government is getting things right, heed the words of Albert Edwards, head of international strategy at Societe Generale who's got some choice words for Osborne's mad Help To Buy scheme.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic

    Where were the lib Dems in stopping this craziness? It's safe to say now that this 2010 Lib Dem voter has been lost.

    Dry your eyes Frank - the jalopy is back on the road.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/philipaldrick/100024765/the-uk-economic-motor-is-spluttering-back-to-life/

    "The latest cause for hope has been this week’s purchasing managers indices for manufacturing, construction and now services.

    All three sectors showed growth in tandem for May, for the first time since March last year. “The UK economy has moved up a gear with all cylinders now firing,” Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said.

    If his maths is right and the momentum carries into June, the UK could be in line to grow at 0.5pc in the second quarter."
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Frank - that article is strange - for example

    "Why are houses too expensive in the UK? Too much debt. "

    Yet households have been paying back debt at an unprecedented rate for 5 years - and prices have continued to rise in London - but less so in the rest of the Uk.

    Here's the evidence:

    http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/PublishingImages/hew/2012/Dec/chart1.GIF

    Perhaps the rising prices in London are from international investors looking for a safe haven - and not much to do with Uk debt.

  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    If his maths is right and the momentum carries into June, the UK could be in line to grow at 0.5pc in the second quarter."

    If accelerating growth means increases in tax revenues, then labour really do have a problem...
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    I'm getting worried now,where the hell is tim ;-)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    FrankBooth said:

    I hardly think many people will be saying 'c'est magnifique' about the Lib Dems role in the current government. 3 years of no growth, the NHS disorganisation, Michael Gove's almost comical return to victorian values in our education system. What have the Lib Dems achieved other than acting as a slight brake on the Tories wilder ideas? Virtually nothing. They've even derailed their ambitions for electoral reform by demanding a referendum on a voting system they don't even like. Clegg has got virtually everything wrong, he's a poor political strategist and the image is of a man who just does what's necessary to stay in power. What does he believe in? The EU we can assume and some social liberalism, but that's about it.

    Oh and for those who think the economy is turning around and this government is getting things right, heed the words of Albert Edwards, head of international strategy at Societe Generale who's got some choice words for Osborne's mad Help To Buy scheme.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/04/george-osborne-help-to-buy-moronic

    Where were the lib Dems in stopping this craziness? It's safe to say now that this 2010 Lib Dem voter has been lost.

    Your not a happy chappy then?

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Latvia to join the euro next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22781146
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    "Tory peer Baroness Warsi & her secret business dealings"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9308031/Tory-peer-Baroness-Warsi-and-her-secret-business.html
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    where the hell is tim ;-)

    I'm also waiting for BenM to tell us how on earth economic growth can accelerate in a country that's ostensibly practising austerity.

    According to him, only increases in government spending can kick start growth.

    Come to that, its pretty much been Ed Balls' position over the last three years too.
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Off-topic:

    I have reservations about the technology but was surprised to see this article on Al-Beeb.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-22775980

    I would hate to think that harvesting human embryoes would become a norm: If genetic material can be harvested from other - ahem - by-products I would be open to it's medical use.

    More shocking is the following statement:
    Mike Peters is a survivor. Lead singer of The Alarm since 1981, he's had 15 UK Top 40 hits and sold more than five million records.
    Ok, that includes Sixty-eight guns* and...?

    * Only 12" album I bought. Well-done Taff (or should that be the Dee)....
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    "Prime Time for Nationalists: STV screens a 60 minute advert for the SNP."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/06/prime-time-for-nationalists-stv-screens-a-60-minute-advert-for-the-snp/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=prime-time-for-nationalists-stv-screens-a-60-minute-advert-for-the-snp&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    So after 3 years of stagnation, the economy is growing again, just as it was when the coalition came to power. It's rather bizarre that that can be seen as some kind of achievement.

    The truth is the government embarked on a stupid austerity programme that killed growth. There was no need for it. Gilts were already at record lows. They've ended up borrowing far more than anticipated and the markets haven't turned. There's simply no defence of it anymore. The trouble is that Labour is so damaged thanks to overseeing the initial financial crisis and the Lib Dems hamstrung by their decision to go into government with the Tories, so there is no-one in power to make the argument. It makes you want to hit your head against a brick wall.
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    @PBModerator

    I'm confused, why were glassfet and replying posts removed?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    "Tory peer Baroness Warsi & her secret business dealings"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9308031/Tory-peer-Baroness-Warsi-and-her-secret-business.html

    Well as long as Ukip win the GE she will be able to claim unlimited legal aid for any court case - as well as child benefit and winter fuel payment for her granny.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrankBooth said:

    So after 3 years of stagnation, the economy is growing again, just as it was when the coalition came to power. It's rather bizarre that that can be seen as some kind of achievement.


    But the Eurozone is continuing to stagnate - even decline. The USA has delayed it for a while but they have had to borrow/print sums that are beyond the Uk.

    It's called "sound money" Frank - takes time unlike splurging but wins out in the end - always.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Bopara plays for England - jeez.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    taffys said:

    where the hell is tim ;-)

    I'm also waiting for BenM to tell us how on earth economic growth can accelerate in a country that's ostensibly practising austerity.

    According to him, only increases in government spending can kick start growth.

    Come to that, its pretty much been Ed Balls' position over the last three years too.

    Restocking is one reason - pretty much the reason the ONS gave for the 0.3% rise in Q1.

    However bad things get you will eventually hit the bottom. The issue is whether the growth we see now results in sustainable recovery or whether it is a dead cat bounce.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    If anyone fancies a tip for the Tour De France, lay Contador at 5.0 now.

    He has produced the most atrocious time trial in the Dauphine which is an excellent indicator for the Tour.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Just checking the tennis. Jankovic beat Sharapova in the first set 6-0! I'll be irked if Sharapova wins 2-1, though (I considered backing that at 4.6).
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,059
    edited June 2013
    @frankbooth

    do you think the markets would have differentiated between a govt that said austerity was needed and one that didn't?
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    taffys said:

    where the hell is tim ;-)

    I'm also waiting for BenM to tell us how on earth economic growth can accelerate in a country that's ostensibly practising austerity.

    According to him, only increases in government spending can kick start growth.

    Come to that, its pretty much been Ed Balls' position over the last three years too.

    It's obviously the wrong sort of growth. The correct form would be that which is exclusively funded by central government or by off sheet underhand deals.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    TGOHF said:

    Bopara plays for England - jeez.

    Oh for Gods sake.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone fancies a tip for the Tour De France, lay Contador at 5.0 now.

    He has produced the most atrocious time trial in the Dauphine which is an excellent indicator for the Tour.

    Perhaps he didn't have Spanish beef for tea last night ?
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    taffys said:

    If his maths is right and the momentum carries into June, the UK could be in line to grow at 0.5pc in the second quarter."

    If accelerating growth means increases in tax revenues, then labour really do have a problem...

    So Growth = increasing tax revenues = reducing deficit.

    Nothing to do with cuts then? Pretty much the Labour line.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Prospect's take on PMQs


    "Miliband evidently thinks he can make hay on the NHS, but he forgets that blame for many of the problems with it are shared between the government and his own party. A further complication is that in trying to present the PM as uncaring, out of touch and an enemy of the NHS, he forgets Cameron’s personal experience of the health system, to which the PM referred in passing today and which is widely recognised. The effect is to make Miliband look the mean one. Different approach needed."

    http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blog/pmqs-miliband-needs-a-new-approach/#.Ua80Bsu9KK0
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    BenM said:

    taffys said:

    If his maths is right and the momentum carries into June, the UK could be in line to grow at 0.5pc in the second quarter."

    If accelerating growth means increases in tax revenues, then labour really do have a problem...

    So Growth = increasing tax revenues = reducing deficit.

    Nothing to do with cuts then? Pretty much the Labour line.
    Cuts allow the govt to continue borrowing at low rates of interest whilst keeping taxes lower.

    Very important for growth.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,059
    @BenM

    it's a simple "can't get to there from here" issue.

    We saw how an expansion of both public and private balance sheets created nominal growth. The problem was the unwind.

    We were (in 2010) at the point when the capital markets were not in the mood for more borrowed growth and a contraction was required.

    The Cons said "no" to more borrowing and were rewarded with low bond yields and now it seems a potential return of growth. Lab said (and says) "just a bit more borrowing" but ignored the fact that there wasn't anyone else who was still willing to lend.
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,268
    TGOHF said:

    Bopara plays for England - jeez.

    Would you really, really continue with Dernbach in preference to Bopara? Or Woakes? Bit more of a case for the latter, I suspect.

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    OldKingCole said:

    TGOHF said:

    Bopara plays for England - jeez.

    Would you really, really continue with Dernbach in preference to Bopara? Or Woakes? Bit more of a case for the latter, I suspect.

    I guess they are stuck with the squad picked - and Anderson rested.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    TGOHF said:

    BenM said:

    taffys said:

    If his maths is right and the momentum carries into June, the UK could be in line to grow at 0.5pc in the second quarter."

    If accelerating growth means increases in tax revenues, then labour really do have a problem...

    So Growth = increasing tax revenues = reducing deficit.

    Nothing to do with cuts then? Pretty much the Labour line.
    Cuts allow the govt to continue borrowing at low rates of interest whilst keeping taxes lower.

    Very important for growth.
    No, it isn't that.

    Lots of places have low interest rates without cuts.

  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    O/T A very interesting article by Alex Massie on the Scottish referendum:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/06/prime-time-for-nationalists-stv-screens-a-60-minute-advert-for-the-snp/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=prime-time-for-nationalists-stv-screens-a-60-minute-advert-for-the-snp&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    He argues, rather against the consensus, that the Nats have a big advantage because they can construct a pseudo-historical 'narrative'.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    On topic: yes.

    Off topic good comment on cricinfo:

    "If you look at bowlers who have played at least 5 ODIs in the 12 months and bowled at least 5 overs, Bopara is ranked No 1 in the world in terms of economy rate. Dernbach is 92nd. Out of 92."

    Got to be worth a try but what is wrong with Bairstow?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    So Growth = increasing tax revenues = reducing deficit.

    The labour line was increasing spending = growth = increasing tax revenues = reducing deficit.

    Or put simply, increasing deficit = reducing deficit.

  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    TOPPING said:

    @BenM

    it's a simple "can't get to there from here" issue.

    We saw how an expansion of both public and private balance sheets created nominal growth. The problem was the unwind.

    We were (in 2010) at the point when the capital markets were not in the mood for more borrowed growth and a contraction was required.

    The Cons said "no" to more borrowing and were rewarded with low bond yields and now it seems a potential return of growth. Lab said (and says) "just a bit more borrowing" but ignored the fact that there wasn't anyone else who was still willing to lend.

    Japan was rewarded with lower bond yields (despite 200pc debt to GDP, as was the US (didn't cut), and Germany and France (inside the eurozone).

    Tory policy only influenced low bond yields by killing the nascient recovery in 2009-10.

    The subsequent double dip recession and flatlining economy fed into the very low bond yields we have experienced in the last 2 years.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited June 2013
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    "Tory peer Baroness Warsi & her secret business dealings"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9308031/Tory-peer-Baroness-Warsi-and-her-secret-business.html

    Well as long as Ukip win the GE she will be able to claim unlimited legal aid for any court case - as well as child benefit and winter fuel payment for her granny.

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    I worry that this site is becoming nothing more than a diluted version of the House of Commons where all anyone does is point out negative aspects in the policies of the party that the poster supports, with an aversion to admitting anything negative about their own party.

    Why? There's no downside fessing up unless you are a petty point scorer. You're not going to get deselected!

    Barely any talk of betting

    No response/little discussion of any bets offered



  • RichardNabavi
    RichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Poor BenM, I feel for him. Now that Balls has given up the pretence he'll have to vote UKIP, as the last fiscally-irresponsible party left.
  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Latvia to join the euro next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22781146

    It's like moths to a flame isn't it?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    London is set to climb the global city competitiveness ranking from #6 now to #2 in 2025:

    http://www.citigroup.com/citi/citiforcities/pdfs/hotspots2025.pdf
  • JohnWheatley
    JohnWheatley Posts: 142
    Clegg is only saved by the paucity of choice on offer once he goes.

    Kennedy would be the best but he is I assume ruled out
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,059
    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:

    @BenM

    it's a simple "can't get to there from here" issue.

    We saw how an expansion of both public and private balance sheets created nominal growth. The problem was the unwind.

    We were (in 2010) at the point when the capital markets were not in the mood for more borrowed growth and a contraction was required.

    The Cons said "no" to more borrowing and were rewarded with low bond yields and now it seems a potential return of growth. Lab said (and says) "just a bit more borrowing" but ignored the fact that there wasn't anyone else who was still willing to lend.

    Japan was rewarded with lower bond yields (despite 200pc debt to GDP, as was the US (didn't cut), and Germany and France (inside the eurozone).

    Tory policy only influenced low bond yields by killing the nascient recovery in 2009-10.

    The subsequent double dip recession and flatlining economy fed into the very low bond yields we have experienced in the last 2 years.
    Not that we can go and ask them now but I think you are misremembering the mood of the markets in 2010. Sometimes I think that some Labour partyites (not you I'm sure) think that the UK had an inviolate right to keep borrowing and not be penalised.

    Japan has been in a yield trap for decades and the US is demonstrably a special case. There is no such argument for the UK nor any good reason why a leftist borrowing govt wouldn't have spooked the bond markets to the point whereby debt service would have wiped out any prospect of recovery for many quarters.

    Plus didn't we not have a double-dip recession?
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    No response/little discussion of any bets offered

    Did you get anyone to offer you odds on UKIP polling ahead of the tories at all?
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    BenM said:

    So Growth = increasing tax revenues = reducing deficit.

    Nothing to do with cuts then? Pretty much the Labour line.

    Bennie boy, please stop looking into your RDBMS code. You obviously do not understand it.

    Assignment [ = ]: The value on the right is held within the variable [holder] on the left.

    Ergo:
    • Reducing deficit result in increased tax-revenues.
    • Increased tax-revenues result in Growth
    Unlike your escapade yesterday we are no longer evaluating a test but assigning outcomes to results. Assignments must be true (by definition).


  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    BenM said:

    TOPPING said:

    @BenM

    it's a simple "can't get to there from here" issue.

    We saw how an expansion of both public and private balance sheets created nominal growth. The problem was the unwind.

    We were (in 2010) at the point when the capital markets were not in the mood for more borrowed growth and a contraction was required.

    The Cons said "no" to more borrowing and were rewarded with low bond yields and now it seems a potential return of growth. Lab said (and says) "just a bit more borrowing" but ignored the fact that there wasn't anyone else who was still willing to lend.

    Japan was rewarded with lower bond yields (despite 200pc debt to GDP, as was the US (didn't cut), and Germany and France (inside the eurozone).

    Tory policy only influenced low bond yields by killing the nascient recovery in 2009-10.

    The subsequent double dip recession and flatlining economy fed into the very low bond yields we have experienced in the last 2 years.
    Japan - borrows from domestic retail investors with nowhere else to go
    US - the ultimate safe haven
    Germany - best Euro denominated investment
    France - probably second best, especially given flight from periphery, but increasinly market aware of the fundamental issues
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    taffys said:

    No response/little discussion of any bets offered

    Did you get anyone to offer you odds on UKIP polling ahead of the tories at all?

    Not a sausage!

    Just got told off by @antifrank for asking

    All someone had to do was say "I make it 60/40 No" for example.. didn't think that was much of a stretch



  • Fenster
    Fenster Posts: 2,115
    RichardNabavi said:

    Poor BenM, I feel for him. Now that Balls has given up the pretence he'll have to vote UKIP, as the last fiscally-irresponsible party left.

    I don't feel as sorry for him as I do my 'friend' on Facebook. This lovely, pretty, thirtysomething whose father was a miner and who is a dyed-in-the-wool, placard carrying socialist.

    She has argued with me (and with plenty of backing, given that I'm a valleyboy and lots of my friends are valleys people) that Ed Miliband will restore Labour to its socialist values and as a party of the working class.

    I told her Ed Miliband would not repeal any of the cuts the coalition have made (not the bedroom tax, not tuition fees, not child benefits, not anything). She laughed at me, told me I didn't have a clue...

    I don't know whether to spend the afternoon winding her up or gently congratulating her on her leaders' graduation to sanity :)

  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Socrates said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Latvia to join the euro next year:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22781146

    It's like moths to a flame isn't it?
    I still wouldn't bet against the UK (or each of its constituent parts post-Union) joining the Euro within my lifetime.
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