Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
Punters still think Reform will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
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Were at roughly the same stage of this Parliament as we were at the time of the Hartlepool by-election when Massive was master of all he surveyed and there was every reason to expect an increased Conservative majority at the next election.
And that didn't quite happen as expected. (Not because of Covid directly, but because of the Trussterfuck.)
So until 2027 I'm holding fire on any predictions.
(By then Farage will of course be 64. I know Trump is about 530 but age may become an issue for him especially if Starmer doesn't fight the next election.)
1) Does Reform propose deportation without process (like Abrego Garcia) whereby a person can be taken from UK territory/UK waters and flown somewhere else without opportunity for a hearing before a court/tribunal?
2) Does a Reform government intend (like Trump's) to overlook or ignore court rulings either about general law or about named individuals?
What the proposals mean, and how much the rule of law nature of UK society would be altered (see the impact ofTrump's gangster regime) depends on those two issues.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9vd3rx33g1o
The force of the collision caused the police Volvo to be propelled into the back of the Mercedes the officer had stopped.
Mr Mohammed said both cars - along with the one Hood had been driving - suffered "catastrophic damage".
Footage from inside the constables' vehicle at the moment of impact was played in court.
Hood had been going at 86mph when he hit the police car, but had reached 134mph five seconds before the smash.
Hood and one of his passengers managed to clamber out of the Mercedes without getting help for the causalities, some of whom had life-threatening injuries.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg0zp56yjlo
https://bsky.app/profile/parodypm.bsky.social/post/3lx2hj5tefk2f
It is much much easier for a popular government to lose popularity (trajectory of Hartlepool to 2024 General Election!) than it is for an unpopular government to regain popularity (trajectory from now to 2029).
IMO Labour don't have long to draw a completely different picture of what they are about; they have a chance in October's budget, and if they could be in the position to split the Tory and Reform party votes about equally, both at lowish 20s, Labour with low 30s could win most seats. It is becoming less likely by the week.
But yes, definition of the line is a risk for him. There are some people in the Reform column right now who aren't good people. Farage wants their votes, but not their public endorsement.
(f) be of good behaviour, and not behave in a way which undermines the purposes of the release on licence, which are to protect the public, prevent re-offending and promote successful re-integration into the community;
(g) not commit any offence.
It can easily be argued that going around saying that despite my guilty plea to incitement I am the victim, really I am innocent because I ought to be allowed to promote a raging mob setting fire to people and please can I have my fee from GB News and a large advance on my book/series of articles breaches the spirit of (f). As does voluntarily meeting anyone connected with the pro soviet gangster oligarchy.
I'm not saying it will happen, merely that the electorate is so volatile at the moment that pretty much anything could happen. That's why I'd think twice about even having trading bets on this market.
Their fly tipping was particularly problematic
Reform would seek to sign deals with Afghanistan, Eritrea and other countries that are large sources of small-boat migrants, despite claims of human rights abuses by their governments.
The party would also look to “third countries” such as Rwanda and Albania to house asylum seekers and seek to use British overseas territories such as Ascension Island as a “fallback” if people could not be sent elsewhere.
Is not this nicked from the Tories?:
Under the plans, the European Convention on Human Rights would be replaced by a British Bill of Rights.
There's a lot more of it. His biggest problem imo is that Labour might make progress.
They are going in with their boots on over immigration and asylum. Philp has been very effective at implying immigration and asylum has only been a social concern since July last year.
Immigration is not an issue for me living in the rural Vale of Glamorgan, although I understand there is an asylum hotel near Cardiff Airport. Who knew that? I didn't know that, and there was certainly no misbehaviour reported anecdotally or in the Glamorgan Star.
Jenrick has been very active since the ruling. Some of his comments have been very incendiary. Who knows? If the large scale riots get out of hand and it kicks off this weekend and key Conservatives are filmed at the scene, the voter will see for themselves that asylum hotels were nothing to do with the Tories. I am sure that is the planned narrative anyway.
And then we have Conservative martyr St Lucy who according to her and GBNews was politically imprisoned for no reason, but for Starmer's evil whim.
The Tories are smashing this, and even Nigel has been left trailing too.
But especially, I think 'that was then and this is now'. My intuition (ie guess) is that in these days right now it is very easy indeed to lose popularity in government and quite hard to regain it. Reasons: Governing is about solutions not talk. We happen to live in times in which solutions are in short supply.
https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1958905771514597565
Farage is repulsivre to far too many voters to stand a chance and if you remove him what are you left with? A less noxious Reform leader? I haven't seen one. It's not the sort of Party that attracts well meaning attractive potential leaders
https://x.com/kylegriffin1/status/1958920871370006869
And who knows? Maybe things will get better. The wiring between government action and consequences is tangled at the best of times.
I personally think her sentence was too harsh, I think it was probably so as an attempted deterrent by the judge but it shouldn’t be the role of judges to make points. I think it creates a problem of perception where “two tier justice” will be a rallying cry and so a Rod has been created for the justice system’s back if consistency isn’t apparent.
She also needs to accept she broke the law and got punished. I also think she’s looking at the monetisation aspect of playing this up with Trump/Maga people and will be getting big fees to talk and slag off Britain.
A General all round shitshow and a great display of the law of unintended consequences - the police’s decisions re info on the Southport murders, her decision to do a stupid tweet, a judge sending a message, and then there will be further unintended consequences of her being used by the MAGA and Reformish movements.
We don't even know the issues which will be salient in 2028/29 - will it still be about Gaza and "small boats"? I suspect not. The debate has always moved from immigration to integration and the calls for large scale deportations which seem to be gaining currency irrespective of the legalities, practicalities and logistics.
We also seem to have to magic up "camps" to house 60,000 people out of thin air - again, difficult problems are rarely solved by sinmplistic, impractical solutions.
I suspect the economy will be top of the list as it usually is and that will come down to the hardy perennial of statistics vs perceptions.
Secondly, if the Tories recover then there is a decent chance the Tories and Reform will compete with each other to split the vote about equally, with both losing to a slightly resurgent Labour party.
Psephology requires (IMO) that either the Tories or Reform do conspicuously well at the expense of the other, not both doing modestly OK.
https://www.twz.com/air/colombian-black-hawk-downed-by-drone-is-a-glimpse-of-whats-to-come
This is why S Korea cancelled its order for AH-64s.
Meanwhile, another legacy from previous government.
DE&S accepts final AH-64E Apache helicopter for British Army
https://des.mod.uk/apache-ah-64e-british-army-boeing-helicopter/
The 50th AH-64E Apache has been secured for the British Army, completing the new fleet of the world’s most advanced attack helicopter.
The final Apache was handed over to DE&S at Boeing’s manufacturing facility in Arizona, USA. The UK’s operational fleet is now fully established at the Army’s Wattisham Flying Station in Suffolk, while the training fleet is complete at the Army Aviation Centre in Middle Wallop, Hampshire...
It is also true that the difficulties we are in (as in the aftermath of WW2 or the Wall Street Crash) make easy wins or politically acceptable solutions very hard, and the rolling social media means Alastair Campbell's 24 hour rule has been cut to literally minutes - an impossible standard to keep to.
It is however also true that while in government there are still levers to pull to try and regain popularity (Nigel Lawson in 1986) and Labour have a crucial advantage in that their actual opponents - the Conservatives - and presumed opponents are fighting each other rather than the government. The Conservatives are also in a massive crisis entirely of their own making and therefore navel-gazing, while Reform are not a party but an ego trip subsidised by dubious methods. One scandal, or a literal heart attack for Farage, and they are stuffed. This gives Labour an advantage in trying to consolidate their position. OK, so far they haven't taken advantage but it's not out of the question they will. Starmer has been written off many times but he has a remarkable knack of confounding people.
So bottom line is - no market for me.
There's still a chance of turning things around in the midterms. Probably the last chance; 2028 will be too late.
I have listened to a great deal of Reagan recently to compare and contrast with the orange halfwit. It was said Reagan preferred his information to be presented in video format, as opposed to Trump who according to biographer Michael Wolf can neither assimilate written detail (possibly because he is illiterate) and spoken detail (because he doesn't listen). At the time I despised Reagan, but hell, he was a great orator and a serious politician. Even with the benefit of hindsight I don't buy Mrs Thatcher, but in the light of Trump, I am sold on Reagan.
So back to your point, Labour could be saved, not because they turn their inertia around but because "events dear boy". And f*** me, do we have a leader of the free World who could furnish us with "events".
If we're going to quote the OBR, check this graph out. It's a bit out of date but it demonstrates what I'm trying to show.
and @DavidL - NHS productivity growth was solid all the way up to COVID (actually faster than private sector productivity), something the Conservatives have a very good record with. My main complaint is they gutted public health and investment, so while hospitals got more efficient overall health fell during that period. Hence we have a brilliant "National Sickness Service".
And when they try to make hard choices they usually make the wrong ones and have to be backed out of them.
If that was to maintain popularity it would be understandable if regrettable but they're not managing that either.
I think they would actually get much more credit if they said, OK, tough medicine needed, but actually, three years from now we will get some benefits.
(Classic example - VAT on school fees. If they stopped parroting this '£1.8 billion to spend on state schools and private school fees go up X% a year anyway so there will be no impact' which is complete bullshit, and said, 'you know what, it's going to be tough and cause a number of private schools to close but we need every cent we can get and this will be revenue positive' it would sound a whole lot saner and there would be far fewer bad headlines.)
It's a possibility but the UK government would have to really want it and be prepared to pay for it.
David Lammy given formal warning over lack of licence during fishing trip with JD Vance - but will avoid fine
https://news.sky.com/story/david-lammy-given-formal-warning-over-lack-of-licence-during-fishing-trip-with-jd-vance-but-will-avoid-fine-13416213
But it's UK territory, so the US could go hang.
(Though Farage wouldn't have the balls.)
But it's a little early just to give up.
Both LBD and the BBC have run with Philp and Jenrick and also St Lucy's virginal innocence.
The only point against my narrative is events were overtaken by "famine" being called in Gaza, and Bibi's regime claiming there is food aplenty only yards from the starving children, which means they are fine, and would Gazans mind moving South as we are about to further bomb the be Jesus out of Gaza City.
Some of their candidates may know how politics works but most won't have a clue how government works.
Looks like some flag hangers were attacked with petrol bombs last night. We can’t know for sure but the video is convincing
If this is true this is exactly what he’s been predicting. The “locals” will react with displays of anger and protests, but then THOSE will be met with violence from others. And so it spirals
https://x.com/journojones05/status/1959172414065009083?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Given that even the Times's commentary is a bit "distancing ourselves from the crazy guy we put on the front page" (Of course, this is Mr Farage speaking and a generous sprinkling of salt is required. Saying that you are willing to surrender people to the tender mercies of the Taliban when they face a real risk of retribution is not serious or ethical politics...), I'm going with the latter.
Point is, it was an extremely expensive acquisition which was supposed to provide a capability we could rely on for the next couple of decades, and there are already grounds to think it's obsolete.
It a very important lesson not to gamble on big ticket items. A country the size of the US can afford to write off multi billion dollar mistakes; we can't anymore.
The asylum seeker issue too is problematic for year one of this Government because they have done precisely nothing about it. Now asylum seekers aren't a particular priority of mine, which is probably why the Government are beached on the subject. They remain unconcerned because like me, they are middle class snobs. However it is an issue to Johnny Brexit because GBNews and the Daily Mail have pointed out to him that "foreigners will likely want to kill him and sell his daughters into slavery". The Government need to consider Johnny Brexit's unhinged mindset, but I don't think they have the capacity to breach their own logic.
https://www.bromley.gov.uk/news/article/872/a-statement-regarding-the-tlk-building-in-st-mary-cray
The hostel has been in situ at the TLK building for two years and according to the Government’s latest statistics, updated weekly, the hostel is not occupied by ‘single young men’, as was the case in Epping, and is being asserted by some locally.
A Council Spokesperson said: “ Our first hand advice remains that the hostel is currently occupied by children, women and families only in temporary accommodation, awaiting a decision from the Government concerning their future immigration status at which point they will leave.
"Also, that there are no current police investigations in relation to residents of the TLK apartments taking place, contrary to other reports circulating.
Open your eyes.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1958669999880773727
If the answer is No and Yes we are in Trump gangster territory.
If the answer is Yes and No we are in territory a Reform government cannot control - the rule of law.
Buck Sexton: "Ghislaine Maxwell effectively downplaying this whole thing. Yeah, he was a pedophile, he hid it from everybody, nobody else was involved, there's no proof of anything else, there's no blackmail, there's no foreign intelligence tie. Oh, wow. That just brings it all together with a bow for her, doesn't it? She probably wants to get out early."
https://x.com/BlueATLGeorgia/status/1958991955112702200
Fox: The question is whether Maxwell is gaming the system. You have to assume that she is. She is in a very desperate situation, and she wants to offer something up. The critics will come forward and say, 'she knew the only shot she has is presidential commutation, and that will only come if she clears Trump.'
https://x.com/factpostnews/status/1958982638171001310
If a prisoner out on licence breaches those licence conditions it is an independent judge and not a malign Prime Minister who determines if they need to be returned to prison. If that comes to pass in this case the optics for the Government don't look good. Nonetheless the prisoner will be the architect of their own downfall should that come to pass
If some Just Stop Oil protester was behaving in a similar way, wouldn't you want them locked up and the key disposed of?
There was another violent flag-related incident in York which HAS been exaggerated (I think) so 🤷🏼♂️
To add evidence to that it is clearly localised in areas where conflict is more likely. Where I live in a posh bit of Surrey there is not a single flag to be seen. In Southwold the only flags are the ones that have always been there.
🤬 autocorrect
That said I’ve just realised Gavrilo must be the Serbian form of Gabriel, so it’s a poetic typo
The centrist Dorks on PB want to blame me for what is happening out there in the UK, and for me telling them about it. I like to think I’m a powerful and influential figure in the lithic sex toy carving business, but no I do not control the actions and beliefs of millions of people around the UK. Get a grip
I suggested the union to put extra security on.
They said “women aren’t like that”
The damage was 5 figures - way more than a singed flag.
I’ll be sure to let you know
There you go. I have shown you. That was easy. Next.
I accept you are not very good at it, but that wasn't the challenge.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1958932628100218883
Genius.
I’m like the Dollar Store d’Annunzio
*actually this isn’t true. I’ve been to his utterly weird home and it’s quite sad and a little creepy
Ironically it might leave us worse prepared than if we had not spent the money but had saved it for later.
You’ll be pushed to find a comment where I encourage people to attack the flag hangers
Not to mention working without a visa, hunting fictional, endangered wildlife without a license. Not wearing hi-viz. No environmental impact survey. No risk study done. Bet he brought the horse along as well - animal welfare, transport, quarantine?
Furrin criminality all the way.