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These are the lowest leader approval ratings I have ever seen. Surely they can't go on?

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,988

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 80% of voters back the OSA requiring age verification to access pornography websites.

    86% of Conservative voters, 85% of LDs, 79% of Labour and 76% of Reform voters in favour
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/2025/07/24/8b234/2

    The 'gender' tab is interesting. 72% of females 'strongly support' compared with 43% of males. Not surprising that women are more worried about easy access to pornography.
    I believe the PB demographic is overwhelmingly male.
    The PB demographic is overwhelmingly male, liberal or libertarian, and tech-literate. They don't want the OSA to work, and they understand why it will not.

    The government might still win with those who do want the OSA at least in the vague sense of protecting children from internet porn and social media bullying, and do not understand that it probably won't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,539
    edited 9:45AM
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Not all the world is swinging right, Canada and Australia have just swung to the Liberals and Labor.

    Stride is a heavyweight on the economy and Lam is barely even known amongst political anoraks as well as not even being in the Shadow Cabine

    Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next GE to reunite the right but he is not the best option for the Tories to take on Farage.

    Indeed MoreinCommon found Jenrick only makes a marginal difference relative to Kemi, with the Tories actually falling by 1% from 21% to 20% but Reform also down from 29% to 27%.

    Ironically if Sunak returned as Tory leader the Tories would be on 24%, tied with Reform who are also on 24% in that scenario and ahead of Labour on 22%, suggesting against Farage a leader from the Sunak wing might be best absent a Boris return.

    (If Boris returned as Conservarvative leader the Conservatives would be back up to 26% with Reform on 23%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 15%)
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf
    Then fuck your stupid party. Let it die
    Yes but you voted Labour at the last GE when the Tories still got that 24% and now back Reform, even if the Tories won you back under Jenrick that poll also shows they would not be doing much better than now against Farage and indeed worse than the Sunak led wing would be doing
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Not all the world is swinging right, Canada and Australia have just swung to the Liberals and Labor.

    Stride is a heavyweight on the economy and Lam is barely even known amongst political anoraks as well as not even being in the Shadow Cabine

    Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next GE to reunite the right but he is not the best option for the Tories to take on Farage.

    Indeed MoreinCommon found Jenrick only makes a marginal difference relative to Kemi, with the Tories actually falling by 1% from 21% to 20% but Reform also down from 29% to 27%.

    Ironically if Sunak returned as Tory leader the Tories would be on 24%, tied with Reform who are also on 24% in that scenario and ahead of Labour on 22%, suggesting against Farage a leader from the Sunak wing might be best absent a Boris return.

    (If Boris returned as Conservarvative leader the Conservatives would be back up to 26% with Reform on 23%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 15%)
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf
    Then fuck your stupid party. Let it die
    Yes but you voted Labour at the last GE when the Tories still got that 24% and now back Reform, even if the Tories won you back under Jenrick that poll also shows they would not be doing much better than now against Farage and indeed worse than the Sunak led wing would be doing
    There’s an awful lot of people like me. We loaned our vote to Labour in desperation, now we see they are even worse - far worse - than the Tories. So the only option left is Reform. That’s it

    You desperately need to win back people like me
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,178
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Not all the world is swinging right, Canada and Australia have just swung to the Liberals and Labor.

    Stride is a heavyweight on the economy and Lam is barely even known amongst political anoraks as well as not even being in the Shadow Cabinet.

    Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next GE to reunite the right but he is not the best option for the Tories to take on Farage.

    Indeed MoreinCommon found Jenrick only makes a marginal difference relative to Kemi, with the Tories actually falling by 1% from 21% to 20% if Jenrick replaced Kemi as Tory leader but Reform also down from 29% to 27%.

    Ironically if Sunak returned as Tory leader the Tories would be back up to 24%, tied with Reform who are also on 24% in that scenario and ahead of Labour on 22%, suggesting against Farage a leader from the Sunak wing might be best absent a Boris return.

    (If Boris returned as Conservative leader the Conservatives would be back up to 26% with Reform on 23%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 15%)
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf
    Canada and Australia have incredibly low population densities (even though most people live in a small number of large cities). That probably explains a lot of it.
    Not entirely, house prices are still high in both, the Canadian Conservatives still got over 40% and just over ten years ago Tony Abbott won in Australia on a campaign to 'stop the boats'
  • novanova Posts: 883
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 80% of voters back the OSA requiring age verification to access pornography websites.

    86% of Conservative voters, 85% of LDs, 79% of Labour and 76% of Reform voters in favour
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/2025/07/24/8b234/2

    As I suspected.

    To me this means Labour will continue to double down, but this will be doing damage behind the scenes.
    Sums up modern politics. Complete ineffective or actively harmful; wildly popular with the electorate.
    I think a lot of adults are assuming a lot about what kids can do/have access to.

    Plenty of kids in the 8-13 age range have tablets/phones with unrestricted internet access, but in my experience they're much less likely to have unrestricted access to an app store. That doesn't completely exclude the use of VPNs, but it makes it more difficult.

    You've also got to consider that there's a difference between actively searching out content, and being led there gradually by an algorithm. A kid that's feeling down might expect their searches to find happy videos, or videos that will cheer them up, but it's not long before the scrolling leads them down the path of kids talking about self-harm. At least this puts up a small fence before they see that. They may be curious what's on the other side of the fence, but that doesn't mean they'll all try and climb it, and hopefully now, they won't find themselves "accidentally" on the other side.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 9:47AM
    Rising meat and tea prices have helped drive up food price inflation for the sixth consecutive month, a survey suggests.

    Food prices rose by 4% in the year to July, up from a 3.7% increase in the year to June, according to the latest shop price monitor from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

    The BRC survey found inflation - the rate at which prices rise - for fresh food including fruit and vegetables remained at 3.2% in the year to July, but inflation for cupboard goods increased to 5.1% over the same period.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c627gpekvw3o
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,366

    ...

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nico67 said:

    Farage demands apology from Peter Kyle over his comments on Sky News and called them disgusting .

    Farage is a touchy fucker. Come on Silk Cuts, do your job.
    Kyle's biggest error is he has turned a serious issue worthy of cross party agreement into something that is now all about Farage.
    He is, by some distance, the most significant and important politician in the country so it's inevitable that the issue du jour will be all about him.
    He is only as significant as he is because mainstream media are (accidentally ?) shilling for him 24/7.
    No. He is significant because all three major parties (and quite a few minor ones) have worked very hard on being complete fuckups and being utterly detached from, and disinterested in, the bulk of the electorate.

    The cure for Farage is some competent leadership.
    That is a faulty analysis, although some competent leadership would be welcome.

    Like Trump last year, Farage is being promoted by the people who matter in the media.
    If Starmer was competent, the Labour Party could be on 40%. They aren’t.

    Likewise Kemi.

    Reform are ahead in the polls because of “none of the above”

    The “Reform is all fake and will go away if we shove our fingers in our ears and scream LA-LA-LA just so” is the faulty analysis.

    The problem that is shown by polls, focus groups etc is the lack of belief in competency, effectiveness and any moral centre. The sight of the PM changing his mind 180 degrees to match the Supreme Court ruling….
    Farage is one of a handful of Reform MPs in the HoC. He is not LOTO. His party are currently ahead in the polls He is on TV and radio every day as "PM in waiting" four years out from a GE. He is being promoted by the media. If this continues he becomes PM irrespective of whether Starmer gets his act together or not.

    Starmer, other than PMQs did not get this kind of media coverage prior to last year's GE.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,642
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    ILR for the students etc let in by Boris & Co is a good issue for focus. I think KS may well address that, and she is positioning as "they are following my shout". Kemi may not be happy.

    You can tell she's ex-Goldman's - no identified data source, snazzy presentation, and weird category selection. I wonder where the data comes from?

    I'm sticking with my Katie Lam description - "Mini me Chris Philp, but less like the villain from Bridget Jones' Diary".

    it's a good job we have a Govt that is actually reducing immigration, and working the system !

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    Farage demands apology from Peter Kyle over his comments on Sky News and called them disgusting .

    Now then, will an apology fix it?
    Kyle shouldn’t apologise and should double down on the comments . Farage trying to incite violence with immigrant hotels so he should STFU . He can dish it out but can’t take it .

    Personally I think the OSA is poor legislation but it’s time opposition politicians used the Reform playbook .
    If someone is wrong they're wrong, whatever side they are on.

    On this one Kyle is out of line, even though the target was Farage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,432
    edited 9:57AM
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    These guys talk tough but watch them implode when it comes back at them... Dear No10 spads, your fuckwit ministers have got you into yet another battle that is doomed to strategic defeat, to add to your v long list including a budget scorecard flashing redder every week... Stuart and Conrad in charge as usual, usual results guaranteed...

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/1950105236716106126

    Some inside baseball in that tweet.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,683

    Rising meat and tea prices have helped drive up food price inflation for the sixth consecutive month, a survey suggests.

    Food prices rose by 4% in the year to July, up from a 3.7% increase in the year to June, according to the latest shop price monitor from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

    The BRC survey found inflation - the rate at which prices rise - for fresh food including fruit and vegetables remained at 3.2% in the year to July, but inflation for cupboard goods increased to 5.1% over the same period.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c627gpekvw3o

    It looks like inflation is UP, UP AND AWAY once again! I think the bank will cut the rate to 4.00% next week but that will be it for quite a while.

    CPI is likely to be 4% minimum September 2025 so more money for Rachel to find to cover the pension and benefits uplifts April 2026 which will be based on this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,178
    With the Village People backing music President Trump has now officially cut the ribbon to open his new golf course in Scotland
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,739

    ...

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    nico67 said:

    Farage demands apology from Peter Kyle over his comments on Sky News and called them disgusting .

    Farage is a touchy fucker. Come on Silk Cuts, do your job.
    Kyle's biggest error is he has turned a serious issue worthy of cross party agreement into something that is now all about Farage.
    He is, by some distance, the most significant and important politician in the country so it's inevitable that the issue du jour will be all about him.
    He is only as significant as he is because mainstream media are (accidentally ?) shilling for him 24/7.
    No. He is significant because all three major parties (and quite a few minor ones) have worked very hard on being complete fuckups and being utterly detached from, and disinterested in, the bulk of the electorate.

    The cure for Farage is some competent leadership.
    That is a faulty analysis, although some competent leadership would be welcome.

    Like Trump last year, Farage is being promoted by the people who matter in the media.
    If Starmer was competent, the Labour Party could be on 40%. They aren’t.

    Likewise Kemi.

    Reform are ahead in the polls because of “none of the above”

    The “Reform is all fake and will go away if we shove our fingers in our ears and scream LA-LA-LA just so” is the faulty analysis.

    The problem that is shown by polls, focus groups etc is the lack of belief in competency, effectiveness and any moral centre. The sight of the PM changing his mind 180 degrees to match the Supreme Court ruling….
    This is absolutely right.

    If it wasn’t Farage, it would be someone else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,178
    edited 9:58AM
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,247
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Jenrick or Lam or Suella or Farage himself on the right. But in the centre, Lam would have a free run assuming Cleverly is looking elsewhere.
    On this specific issue, migration, benefits, leave to remain - etc - Lam probably sides with 70% of voters. She’d be mad to take any other position

    The voters are crying out for a government which - finally - belatedly - really WILL put an end to mass migration and the boats and all the rest of it

    Another betrayal would, I suspect, be met with civil unrest
    I didn't know you were so old. A piece by you or perhaps an ancestor? Diversity and the diaspora in 1921 Census. From

    https://www.findmypast.co.uk/blog/history/diversity-and-diaspora-in-the-1921-census




  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,699
    When I opened this thread I could initially only see the second tweet.

    It says a lot about the current state of politics that I assumed the first tweet was either about Starmer or about all our current crop of leaders.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 80% of voters back the OSA requiring age verification to access pornography websites.

    86% of Conservative voters, 85% of LDs, 79% of Labour and 76% of Reform voters in favour
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/2025/07/24/8b234/2

    The 'gender' tab is interesting. 72% of females 'strongly support' compared with 43% of males. Not surprising that women are more worried about easy access to pornography.
    I believe the PB demographic is overwhelmingly male.
    Porn is the obvious flashpoint but just highlights the issue which goes much broader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov finds 80% of voters back the OSA requiring age verification to access pornography websites.

    86% of Conservative voters, 85% of LDs, 79% of Labour and 76% of Reform voters in favour
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/survey-results/daily/2025/07/24/8b234/2

    As I suspected.

    To me this means Labour will continue to double down, but this will be doing damage behind the scenes.
    Sums up modern politics. Complete ineffective or actively harmful; wildly popular with the electorate.
    Depressingly on point.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,158

    Rising meat and tea prices have helped drive up food price inflation for the sixth consecutive month, a survey suggests.

    Food prices rose by 4% in the year to July, up from a 3.7% increase in the year to June, according to the latest shop price monitor from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).

    The BRC survey found inflation - the rate at which prices rise - for fresh food including fruit and vegetables remained at 3.2% in the year to July, but inflation for cupboard goods increased to 5.1% over the same period.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c627gpekvw3o

    It looks like inflation is UP, UP AND AWAY once again! I think the bank will cut the rate to 4.00% next week but that will be it for quite a while.

    CPI is likely to be 4% minimum September 2025 so more money for Rachel to find to cover the pension and benefits uplifts April 2026 which will be based on this.
    Surely inflation higher than interest rates is what the Treasury "secretly" wants?
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,944
    Leon said:

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    Others are claiming the guy acted first and tried to attack Saint Tommeh, who merely defended himself

    It’s notable that none of the videos have the earlier part of the stramash. Remember the Manchester Airport vid
    Jury’s out on that one.

    I’m sure whatever the verdict reaction will be measured !!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,178
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Not all the world is swinging right, Canada and Australia have just swung to the Liberals and Labor.

    Stride is a heavyweight on the economy and Lam is barely even known amongst political anoraks as well as not even being in the Shadow Cabine

    Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next GE to reunite the right but he is not the best option for the Tories to take on Farage.

    Indeed MoreinCommon found Jenrick only makes a marginal difference relative to Kemi, with the Tories actually falling by 1% from 21% to 20% but Reform also down from 29% to 27%.

    Ironically if Sunak returned as Tory leader the Tories would be on 24%, tied with Reform who are also on 24% in that scenario and ahead of Labour on 22%, suggesting against Farage a leader from the Sunak wing might be best absent a Boris return.

    (If Boris returned as Conservarvative leader the Conservatives would be back up to 26% with Reform on 23%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 15%)
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf
    Then fuck your stupid party. Let it die
    Yes but you voted Labour at the last GE when the Tories still got that 24% and now back Reform, even if the Tories won you back under Jenrick that poll also shows they would not be doing much better than now against Farage and indeed worse than the Sunak led wing would be doing
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Not all the world is swinging right, Canada and Australia have just swung to the Liberals and Labor.

    Stride is a heavyweight on the economy and Lam is barely even known amongst political anoraks as well as not even being in the Shadow Cabine

    Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next GE to reunite the right but he is not the best option for the Tories to take on Farage.

    Indeed MoreinCommon found Jenrick only makes a marginal difference relative to Kemi, with the Tories actually falling by 1% from 21% to 20% but Reform also down from 29% to 27%.

    Ironically if Sunak returned as Tory leader the Tories would be on 24%, tied with Reform who are also on 24% in that scenario and ahead of Labour on 22%, suggesting against Farage a leader from the Sunak wing might be best absent a Boris return.

    (If Boris returned as Conservarvative leader the Conservatives would be back up to 26% with Reform on 23%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 15%)
    https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/rpahhzfk/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-3.pdf
    Then fuck your stupid party. Let it die
    Yes but you voted Labour at the last GE when the Tories still got that 24% and now back Reform, even if the Tories won you back under Jenrick that poll also shows they would not be doing much better than now against Farage and indeed worse than the Sunak led wing would be doing
    There’s an awful lot of people like me. We loaned our vote to Labour in desperation, now we see they are even worse - far worse - than the Tories. So the only option left is Reform. That’s it

    You desperately need to win back people like me
    Indeed but the evidence is Jenrick won't win back most of you, you will vote for Farage regardless.

    So the Tories are better off trying to hold the Sunak voting 24% and then maybe shift to Jenrick and Lam if Farage loses the next GE to reunite the right
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,944

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    He's a thug.
    Of course he is. He’s a former MIG, the Luton soccer teams ‘firm’. Being a thug is part of the job description.

    Some ex soccer thugs become decent people and put back into the community, Like Big Baz down at Birmingham.

    Others, like R Tommeh take a different path.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,944

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Jenrick or Lam or Suella or Farage himself on the right. But in the centre, Lam would have a free run assuming Cleverly is looking elsewhere.
    On this specific issue, migration, benefits, leave to remain - etc - Lam probably sides with 70% of voters. She’d be mad to take any other position

    The voters are crying out for a government which - finally - belatedly - really WILL put an end to mass migration and the boats and all the rest of it

    Another betrayal would, I suspect, be met with civil unrest
    Who flagged this?

    @Leon is right.
    Probably a Lib Dem.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,660
    Nigelb said:

    The near disaster with the Spanish F-18 was real, apparently.
    Confirmed by the air force.

    Muchos nos habéis estado preguntando, por eso, en este hilo, os contamos qué pasó durante el festival aéreo de Gijón.

    Hilo 🧵

    https://x.com/EjercitoAire/status/1949849926852034974

    I think I would have taken my chances with the birdstrike rather than whatever the fuck that was. Still, he/she gets a great yarn out of it and that is what 80% of military aviation is all about.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,944
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Pagan2 also got hit by the banhammer.

    @Pagan2 was literally advocating violence - calling for murders and hangings of specific politicians - and refused to stop doing it when politely asked by @TSE

    A fairly lengthy ban seems appropriate (to me, a mere commenter)

    @williamglenn was banned for wrongthink. Simply saying stuff that others disliked, AFAICS

    Much more questionable, to my mind. But this is not my site etc etc
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Pagan2 also got hit by the banhammer.

    @Pagan2 was literally advocating violence - calling for murders and hangings of specific politicians - and refused to stop doing it when politely asked by @TSE

    A fairly lengthy ban seems appropriate (to me, a mere commenter)

    @williamglenn was banned for wrongthink. Simply saying stuff that others disliked, AFAICS

    Much more questionable, to my mind. But this is not my site etc etc
    Sounds like Pagan2 well and truly deserved it. Especially in the current climate. I am glad I missed that episode.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,319
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    ILR for the students etc let in by Boris & Co is a good issue for focus. I think KS may well address that, and she is positioning as "they are following my shout". Kemi may not be happy.

    You can tell she's ex-Goldman's - no identified data source, snazzy presentation, and weird category selection. I wonder where the data comes from?

    I'm sticking with my Katie Lam description - "Mini me Chris Philp, but less like the villain from Bridget Jones' Diary".

    it's a good job we have a Govt that is actually reducing immigration, and working the system !

    She's describing events that happened under the Conservative government. Does she acknowledge that it was her party that made these decisions?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,647
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    The near disaster with the Spanish F-18 was real, apparently.
    Confirmed by the air force.

    Muchos nos habéis estado preguntando, por eso, en este hilo, os contamos qué pasó durante el festival aéreo de Gijón.

    Hilo 🧵

    https://x.com/EjercitoAire/status/1949849926852034974

    I think I would have taken my chances with the birdstrike rather than whatever the fuck that was. Still, he/she gets a great yarn out of it and that is what 80% of military aviation is all about.
    The first time I saw it I wondered if it was AI.
    The ability to retain control at low speed and such extreme attitudes is impressive.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,284
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Pagan2 also got hit by the banhammer.

    @Pagan2 was literally advocating violence - calling for murders and hangings of specific politicians - and refused to stop doing it when politely asked by @TSE

    A fairly lengthy ban seems appropriate (to me, a mere commenter)

    @williamglenn was banned for wrongthink. Simply saying stuff that others disliked, AFAICS

    Much more questionable, to my mind. But this is not my site etc etc
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Pagan2 also got hit by the banhammer.

    @Pagan2 was literally advocating violence - calling for murders and hangings of specific politicians - and refused to stop doing it when politely asked by @TSE

    A fairly lengthy ban seems appropriate (to me, a mere commenter)

    @williamglenn was banned for wrongthink. Simply saying stuff that others disliked, AFAICS

    Much more questionable, to my mind. But this is not my site etc etc
    Sounds like Pagan2 well and truly deserved it. Especially in the current climate. I am glad I missed that episode.
    Which highlights the problem. Freedom to say things is good, and should be protected. But it's very hard to say it should be an absolute, because there is always a tradeoff of harm caused by stuff that is said vs. harm caused by restricting what is said. And online culture probably puts the fulcrum of that balance in a different place to normies.

    And once that is acknowledged, it's clear who we all are, and it is just a question of haggling over the price.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,366

    Sky saying the Kyle - Farage row is expanding into the wider aspects of free speech, and Wilfred Frost, who did the interview with Kyle, emphasising he asked Kyle twice if he really meant his accusations

    We are all rooting for your guy.
    Who do you think my guy is because it certainly isnt Farage, but Kyle making an unnecessary accusation over a serious subject is ill thought through

    Kyle appears to have all the skills of Alison Rose.

    Who managed to lose, spectacularly, a *truth telling contest* with Nigel Farage.

    Farage is *victim/ snowflake.

    * Delete as appropriate.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,660
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    The near disaster with the Spanish F-18 was real, apparently.
    Confirmed by the air force.

    Muchos nos habéis estado preguntando, por eso, en este hilo, os contamos qué pasó durante el festival aéreo de Gijón.

    Hilo 🧵

    https://x.com/EjercitoAire/status/1949849926852034974

    I think I would have taken my chances with the birdstrike rather than whatever the fuck that was. Still, he/she gets a great yarn out of it and that is what 80% of military aviation is all about.
    The first time I saw it I wondered if it was AI.
    The ability to retain control at low speed and such extreme attitudes is impressive.
    F/A-18 has a very good flight control system that has been honed to perfection over its long life. It has automatic spin recovery, g-limiting, etc. You have to work quite hard to crash one although old mate gave it a red hot go in that video.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,319
    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/07352751251326951

    Beyond Polarization: Right-Wing News as a Quasi-religious Phenomenon

    Research on U.S. political media has demonstrated that mainstream and right-wing news are qualitatively distinct in a variety of ways. However, the dominant paradigm of political polarization and its attendant assumptions have restricted researchers from putting these descriptive insights into new and potentially generative theoretical context. In this article, we propose a way forward, arguing for the merits of conceptualizing right-wing news as a quasi-religious phenomenon. Putting empirical findings in dialogue with core theoretical insights from the sociology of religion, we argue that the right-wing news ecosystem has epistemic, functional, and ecological features that are more characteristic of religion than its mainstream media counterpart. We illustrate the usefulness of these distinctions by applying them to the case of Fox News and their reporting of the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we discuss how our conceptual framework advances current and future research on mis/disinformation, international politics, and the structural causes and consequences of right-wing news media’s ascendance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,955
    a

    Sky saying the Kyle - Farage row is expanding into the wider aspects of free speech, and Wilfred Frost, who did the interview with Kyle, emphasising he asked Kyle twice if he really meant his accusations

    We are all rooting for your guy.
    Who do you think my guy is because it certainly isnt Farage, but Kyle making an unnecessary accusation over a serious subject is ill thought through

    Kyle appears to have all the skills of Alison Rose.

    Who managed to lose, spectacularly, a *truth telling contest* with Nigel Farage.

    Farage is *victim/ snowflake.

    * Delete as appropriate.
    My point was that you have to be staggeringly incompetent to get on the wrong end of an argument with Nigel Farage.

    Being less truthful than him takes a particularly special level of idiocy.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,642
    edited 10:18AM

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,432
    edited 10:19AM
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,802
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    The median voter isn't very bright.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 10:26AM
    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,539
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I don’t rule out a lurch left at all. Indeed I believe that - due to certain “technological changes” - some kind of communism might be coming for us. A universal basic income

    In the shorter term there is also a major chance that reform wins in 2028, they fuck up badly. They don’t even solve migration. Then the voters will either go even harder right or swing wildly to the hard left. France is in a similar place
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,072

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    The median voter isn't very bright.
    "If liberals can't control the border, then fascists will." - David Frum.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,642
    edited 10:31AM

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    ILR for the students etc let in by Boris & Co is a good issue for focus. I think KS may well address that, and she is positioning as "they are following my shout". Kemi may not be happy.

    You can tell she's ex-Goldman's - no identified data source, snazzy presentation, and weird category selection. I wonder where the data comes from?

    I'm sticking with my Katie Lam description - "Mini me Chris Philp, but less like the villain from Bridget Jones' Diary".

    it's a good job we have a Govt that is actually reducing immigration, and working the system !

    She's describing events that happened under the Conservative government. Does she acknowledge that it was her party that made these decisions?
    She was a £100k a year Senior Policy Adviser from 2022-2023 in the Home Office!

    That's why I think Kemi may be unhappy. Lam is positioning imo like Bobby J.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,229
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I think that he reason why the radical left rarely take power, even in countries that are desperately poor, and staggeringly unequal, is because even a lot of poor people see themselves as potential winners, rather than losers.

    They may resent the super rich, but they would love to be the super rich, rather than see that class abolished.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,366

    a

    Sky saying the Kyle - Farage row is expanding into the wider aspects of free speech, and Wilfred Frost, who did the interview with Kyle, emphasising he asked Kyle twice if he really meant his accusations

    We are all rooting for your guy.
    Who do you think my guy is because it certainly isnt Farage, but Kyle making an unnecessary accusation over a serious subject is ill thought through

    Kyle appears to have all the skills of Alison Rose.

    Who managed to lose, spectacularly, a *truth telling contest* with Nigel Farage.

    Farage is *victim/ snowflake.

    * Delete as appropriate.
    My point was that you have to be staggeringly incompetent to get on the wrong end of an argument with Nigel Farage.

    Being less truthful than him takes a particularly special level of idiocy.
    I wouldn't have used the clumsy language of Kyle simply because it adds to Farage's long adult life of claiming victimhood.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,284

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    The median voter isn't very bright.
    "If liberals can't control the border, then fascists will." - David Frum.
    The usual way that the fascists control borders is to expand them out into what were previously other countries.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,699
    edited 10:30AM
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I think that he reason why the radical left rarely take power, even in countries that are desperately poor, and staggeringly unequal, is because even a lot of poor people see themselves as potential winners, rather than losers.

    They may resent the super rich, but they would love to be the super rich, rather than see that class abolished.
    Agreed, whereas those who see themselves as moderately wealthy are perhaps more sanguine about additional wealth, and so are more willing to abolish the super-rich, often not realising that they are part of (or at least on the edges of) that group.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,642

    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
    Is it just not that they and readers need to know who they are talking about?

    Since he has so many names, he tries to spread his actions and his crimes across a number of identities. If we lost track we would not know that it was one man with 8-9 prison sentences; perhaps people who support him have lost track.

    Even "Tommy Robinson" is taken from a (Luton, iirc) football hooligan.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    nunu2 said:

    Finally was able to access porn. After entering my phone number and email.

    God I hope this doesn't get leaked.

    The politically relevant part of this is that the viewing habits of Labour MPs are going to get leaked.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,575

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    I would want to see a full video of everything that happened before making any assumptions.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,366

    nunu2 said:

    Finally was able to access porn. After entering my phone number and email.

    God I hope this doesn't get leaked.

    The politically relevant part of this is that the viewing habits of Labour MPs are going to get leaked.
    Doubt if it will be tractor porn.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,955
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    Which is, in turn, a reaction to language.

    I find it interesting that progressives talk in terms of things like “micro-aggressions” but when it comes to taking to the errrr… natives, they don’t think in the same terms.

    What “the natives” see is that immigration has been used for wage suppression, and in a strange alliance, supported by chunks of the traditional left.

    “There is no such thing as x culture and it’s evil anyway”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 10:34AM
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
    Is it just not that they and readers need to know who they are talking about?

    Since he has so many names, he tries to spread his actions and his crimes across a number of identities. If we lost track we would not know that it was one man with 8-9 prison sentences; perhaps people who support him have lost track.

    Even "Tommy Robinson" is taken from a (Luton, iirc) football hooligan.
    That is why I said, it makes sense in court proceeding, but general articles, I don't see the need. It has been stated 1000s and 1000s of times, its not a secret, it really doesn't add anything. Anyway, I am no fan of the man, I just think its a weird thing that is clearly an agreed policy at every media outlet across the spectrum.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,432
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I don’t rule out a lurch left at all. Indeed I believe that - due to certain “technological changes” - some kind of communism might be coming for us. A universal basic income

    In the shorter term there is also a major chance that reform wins in 2028, they fuck up badly. They don’t even solve migration. Then the voters will either go even harder right or swing wildly to the hard left. France is in a similar place
    The thought I try to suppress (since it's depressing) is that nativist xenophobic populism is coming, left or right, and the only difference between the two is taxes on the rich and bits and pieces of public ownership.

    But like I say, I try to suppress it and I'm usually successful. So we won't dwell.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,988
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I don’t rule out a lurch left at all. Indeed I believe that - due to certain “technological changes” - some kind of communism might be coming for us. A universal basic income

    In the shorter term there is also a major chance that reform wins in 2028, they fuck up badly. They don’t even solve migration. Then the voters will either go even harder right or swing wildly to the hard left. France is in a similar place
    Universal basic income is a right wing idea.

    Here is a one minute clip of Milton Friedman arguing against payroll taxes (national insurance as we would say) that provide state pensions. Note that when challenged, he explains his idea for a negative income tax or universal basic income.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/AT6Bwx-v6G4
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 10:39AM
    Andy_JS said:

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    I would want to see a full video of everything that happened before making any assumptions.
    As I said down thread, I won't be surprised if somebody did have a pop, but if you have been in as much trouble as him, you would think it might be sensible to keep as clear as possible (and it looks like he left the scene before the police got there) and probably have a big lump with you to step in for you. History has showed though he is very happy to get into it with people at the first opportunity.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,264
    Andy_JS said:

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    I would want to see a full video of everything that happened before making any assumptions.
    Oh Andy, you’re so last century!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,432
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I think that he reason why the radical left rarely take power, even in countries that are desperately poor, and staggeringly unequal, is because even a lot of poor people see themselves as potential winners, rather than losers.

    They may resent the super rich, but they would love to be the super rich, rather than see that class abolished.
    Yes. The 'aspiration' con.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,366
    Wildly o/t (yet again) , or, just maybe, not. I've taking an interest recently in human migration and it has struck me that, as far as Europe is concerned, migration has generally been FROM the Middle East INTO Europe, and that this has been the case ever Homo sapiens first left Africa.
    Our last population change, around 600CE, was similar, in that it was from the East (continental Europe) to the British Isles.
    In that context, maybe the last 1000 years or so, with no significant migration from the East to the West have been atypical, unless the ability to cross the Atlantic has meant the migratory route bypassed us and went straight to the Americas.

    So crossing the Channel in (fairly) small boats is something that has been going on since before the dawn of history!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,871

    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
    A 2 syllable first name, 3 syllable second can be turned into a rhythmic chant more easily than his given name.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,288

    Wildly o/t (yet again) , or, just maybe, not. I've taking an interest recently in human migration and it has struck me that, as far as Europe is concerned, migration has generally been FROM the Middle East INTO Europe, and that this has been the case ever Homo sapiens first left Africa.
    Our last population change, around 600CE, was similar, in that it was from the East (continental Europe) to the British Isles.
    In that context, maybe the last 1000 years or so, with no significant migration from the East to the West have been atypical, unless the ability to cross the Atlantic has meant the migratory route bypassed us and went straight to the Americas.

    So crossing the Channel in (fairly) small boats is something that has been going on since before the dawn of history!

    Quickest route from Africa to the Americas would have been by boat, South America at any rate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,432

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    Which is, in turn, a reaction to language.

    I find it interesting that progressives talk in terms of things like “micro-aggressions” but when it comes to taking to the errrr… natives, they don’t think in the same terms.

    What “the natives” see is that immigration has been used for wage suppression, and in a strange alliance, supported by chunks of the traditional left.

    “There is no such thing as x culture and it’s evil anyway”
    I'm not arguing that unfettered mass immigration ad infinitum is either good or sustainable. I'm just trying to describe what's going on as I see it. In particular why it's the Right not the Left who are profiting from the disillusionment with mainstream politics and consequent surge in what we're calling "populism". It needs a fearful xenophobic angle to succeed and the Right are better at talking to and exploiting that impulse.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,371
    maxh said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I think that he reason why the radical left rarely take power, even in countries that are desperately poor, and staggeringly unequal, is because even a lot of poor people see themselves as potential winners, rather than losers.

    They may resent the super rich, but they would love to be the super rich, rather than see that class abolished.
    Agreed, whereas those who see themselves as moderately wealthy are perhaps more sanguine about additional wealth, and so are more willing to abolish the super-rich, often not realising that they are part of (or at least on the edges of) that group.
    Indeed, it's those middle class liberal lefties who go out on weekends to campaign for the revolution that will be the first into the gulags while the super rich all escape with their money. There's no stupider class of people.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,944
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Pagan2 also got hit by the banhammer.

    @Pagan2 was literally advocating violence - calling for murders and hangings of specific politicians - and refused to stop doing it when politely asked by @TSE

    A fairly lengthy ban seems appropriate (to me, a mere commenter)

    @williamglenn was banned for wrongthink. Simply saying stuff that others disliked, AFAICS

    Much more questionable, to my mind. But this is not my site etc etc
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Pagan2 also got hit by the banhammer.

    @Pagan2 was literally advocating violence - calling for murders and hangings of specific politicians - and refused to stop doing it when politely asked by @TSE

    A fairly lengthy ban seems appropriate (to me, a mere commenter)

    @williamglenn was banned for wrongthink. Simply saying stuff that others disliked, AFAICS

    Much more questionable, to my mind. But this is not my site etc etc
    Sounds like Pagan2 well and truly deserved it. Especially in the current climate. I am glad I missed that episode.
    Just a reminder - not aimed ay anyone in particular -that @Pagan2 also disclosed a brain tumour, did he not? I don't know the impact of those - other than in general such imposed stress makes us all more tetchy and tend to extremes more. He has I think said his politics are one of the smaller Right-wing parties, and these are conflicted times.

    So - whilst @TSE is absolutely right to moderate as he sees fit, and I defend his right, let's keep some charity in mind.
    Has he, I wouldn’t know. Didn’t see it.

    I wasn’t being uncharitable either.

    No one knows what is going on in other people’s lives. Worth remembering there is a person behind the Handle.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,955
    a
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    Which is, in turn, a reaction to language.

    I find it interesting that progressives talk in terms of things like “micro-aggressions” but when it comes to taking to the errrr… natives, they don’t think in the same terms.

    What “the natives” see is that immigration has been used for wage suppression, and in a strange alliance, supported by chunks of the traditional left.

    “There is no such thing as x culture and it’s evil anyway”
    I'm not arguing that unfettered mass immigration ad infinitum is either good or sustainable. I'm just trying to describe what's going on as I see it. In particular why it's the Right not the Left who are profiting from the disillusionment with mainstream politics and consequent surge in what we're calling "populism". It needs a fearful xenophobic angle to succeed and the Right are better at talking to and exploiting that impulse.
    I’m saying that the way to deal with such “populism” is to create a positive message/path

    Attlee & Co. said there was plenty wrong with the country. But they self evidently loved the country and its people.

    “You are shit. Your culture is both non-existent and shit. These other people - all of their culture is awesome and we like them. Even the bits of their culture which are the same as the bits of your non-existent culture. Which we hate.”

    It’s not a message that inspires.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,646

    Wildly o/t (yet again) , or, just maybe, not. I've taking an interest recently in human migration and it has struck me that, as far as Europe is concerned, migration has generally been FROM the Middle East INTO Europe, and that this has been the case ever Homo sapiens first left Africa.
    Our last population change, around 600CE, was similar, in that it was from the East (continental Europe) to the British Isles.
    In that context, maybe the last 1000 years or so, with no significant migration from the East to the West have been atypical, unless the ability to cross the Atlantic has meant the migratory route bypassed us and went straight to the Americas.

    So crossing the Channel in (fairly) small boats is something that has been going on since before the dawn of history!

    Quickest route from Africa to the Americas would have been by boat, South America at any rate.
    The largest population change must surely have been from Europe, specifically the British Isles, to North America, Australasia and the various European colonies around the world- to the point that the majority of the population in many of these places is largely of European heritage.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,035
    edited 10:58AM
    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,972

    Wildly o/t (yet again) , or, just maybe, not. I've taking an interest recently in human migration and it has struck me that, as far as Europe is concerned, migration has generally been FROM the Middle East INTO Europe, and that this has been the case ever Homo sapiens first left Africa.
    Our last population change, around 600CE, was similar, in that it was from the East (continental Europe) to the British Isles.
    In that context, maybe the last 1000 years or so, with no significant migration from the East to the West have been atypical, unless the ability to cross the Atlantic has meant the migratory route bypassed us and went straight to the Americas.

    So crossing the Channel in (fairly) small boats is something that has been going on since before the dawn of history!

    Indeed and we had plenty of migration from Eastern Europe into Britain until the Iron Curtain descended in 1945 and we forget the large numbers who came here from Ireland in the mid 19th century (including some of my ancestors).

    There's something about people arriving in small boats which triggers a cultural response in an island nation and yet no one has come up with a coherent, workable, legal and cost-effective response to the problem. There's all sorts of flailing around from all sides but nothing approaching a solution.

    Arrest all illegal immigrants and deport them without process would seem a response of sorts except that's up there with kicking the can down the road as they will try again. I'm also not sure it's legal under the ECHR hence those calling for us to leave but I'd rather entrust my meat and two veg to a psychopath with a rusty saw than leave my human rights to be decided by the likes of Farage, Anderson, Tice, Badenoch and Jenrick.

    So we're back to a solution or the lack of one. IF there's a response, it's probably pan-European and involves dealing with the problem nearer the point of origin (Cameron had a point). That probably means a neo-liberal foreign policy which no one thinks works or can be afforded but how else do you stem or mitigate the flow of young men from the likes of Afghanistan, Syria or Eritrea?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,642
    Andy_JS said:

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    I would want to see a full video of everything that happened before making any assumptions.
    Yaxley-Lennon has form for that line. Here's one of "he spat in my face first" from 2020, before an assault
    .
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/tommy-robinson-arrested-man-spat-barrow-cumbria-a4461246.html

    I don't think it proceeded against either side.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,698

    a

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    Which is, in turn, a reaction to language.

    I find it interesting that progressives talk in terms of things like “micro-aggressions” but when it comes to taking to the errrr… natives, they don’t think in the same terms.

    What “the natives” see is that immigration has been used for wage suppression, and in a strange alliance, supported by chunks of the traditional left.

    “There is no such thing as x culture and it’s evil anyway”
    I'm not arguing that unfettered mass immigration ad infinitum is either good or sustainable. I'm just trying to describe what's going on as I see it. In particular why it's the Right not the Left who are profiting from the disillusionment with mainstream politics and consequent surge in what we're calling "populism". It needs a fearful xenophobic angle to succeed and the Right are better at talking to and exploiting that impulse.
    I’m saying that the way to deal with such “populism” is to create a positive message/path

    Attlee & Co. said there was plenty wrong with the country. But they self evidently loved the country and its people.

    “You are shit. Your culture is both non-existent and shit. These other people - all of their culture is awesome and we like them. Even the bits of their culture which are the same as the bits of your non-existent culture. Which we hate.”

    It’s not a message that inspires.
    Who is saying that? I hear a lot more hating on British culture, especially working class culture, from the right than the left.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,366

    Wildly o/t (yet again) , or, just maybe, not. I've taking an interest recently in human migration and it has struck me that, as far as Europe is concerned, migration has generally been FROM the Middle East INTO Europe, and that this has been the case ever Homo sapiens first left Africa.
    Our last population change, around 600CE, was similar, in that it was from the East (continental Europe) to the British Isles.
    In that context, maybe the last 1000 years or so, with no significant migration from the East to the West have been atypical, unless the ability to cross the Atlantic has meant the migratory route bypassed us and went straight to the Americas.

    So crossing the Channel in (fairly) small boats is something that has been going on since before the dawn of history!

    Quickest route from Africa to the Americas would have been by boat, South America at any rate.
    There are suggestions that that happened, although not in any significant numbers. Personally, I'm sceptical.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,319
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    He must really love that prison food....

    A video has emerged appearing to show Tommy Robinson at the scene of an alleged assault at St Pancras station in London. Footage posted on social media shows the far-Right activist looking agitated while a man lays on the floor.

    In the clip, Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, can be heard saying: “He f-----g come at me. He come at me bruv.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/29/tommy-robinson-filmed-shouting-near-injured-man/

    I would want to see a full video of everything that happened before making any assumptions.
    Yaxley-Lennon has form for that line. Here's one of "he spat in my face first" from 2020, before an assault
    .
    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/tommy-robinson-arrested-man-spat-barrow-cumbria-a4461246.html

    I don't think it proceeded against either side.
    He has form for assaulting people too. Guilty of ABH in 2004. Guilty of assault in 2011.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,972
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    I don’t rule out a lurch left at all. Indeed I believe that - due to certain “technological changes” - some kind of communism might be coming for us. A universal basic income

    In the shorter term there is also a major chance that reform wins in 2028, they fuck up badly. They don’t even solve migration. Then the voters will either go even harder right or swing wildly to the hard left. France is in a similar place
    I've been told for nearly 20 years on here there was going to be a sharp swing to "the Right" yet a lot of democracies are still run by Governments of the "centre" or "centre left".

    I realise those who throw round words like "Right" and "Left" do so as a perjorative but the terms lost all meaning decades ago.

    Authoritarian Governments can be conservative, nationalist, socialist, populist, Marxist or a combination of all - the truth is when some parties or individuals get into power, their first decision is how to ensure they retain that power. Only once they feel secure can they instigate the changes they think are needed.

    Reform is not a "right" or "left" wing party as I see it - it's both. It's trying to sell the myth of social conservatism backed by low taxes and high spending - now, that's a bridge which many will buy but it's a ponzi scheme from which only the very wealthy benefit.

    I'm sure the quarter of pensioners who are millionaires (allegedly) will happily sign up to having their State pension reduced (actually I doubt that very much).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,539
    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,972

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there

    Oh dear, we're back to over-analysing one point moves in polls, I see. IF the Labour share had fallen from 22.6 to 22.4 rounding would have changed it from 23 to 22 so an actual 0.2% shift becomes a 1% shift.

    Hardly seismic.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,534
    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    Don't get your Rolex stolen!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    South of the river, how dreadful.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,432

    a

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    Which is, in turn, a reaction to language.

    I find it interesting that progressives talk in terms of things like “micro-aggressions” but when it comes to taking to the errrr… natives, they don’t think in the same terms.

    What “the natives” see is that immigration has been used for wage suppression, and in a strange alliance, supported by chunks of the traditional left.

    “There is no such thing as x culture and it’s evil anyway”
    I'm not arguing that unfettered mass immigration ad infinitum is either good or sustainable. I'm just trying to describe what's going on as I see it. In particular why it's the Right not the Left who are profiting from the disillusionment with mainstream politics and consequent surge in what we're calling "populism". It needs a fearful xenophobic angle to succeed and the Right are better at talking to and exploiting that impulse.
    I’m saying that the way to deal with such “populism” is to create a positive message/path

    Attlee & Co. said there was plenty wrong with the country. But they self evidently loved the country and its people.

    “You are shit. Your culture is both non-existent and shit. These other people - all of their culture is awesome and we like them. Even the bits of their culture which are the same as the bits of your non-existent culture. Which we hate.”

    It’s not a message that inspires.
    Share the appreciation for Attlee. And for a positive message. But I don't recognise that version of what the message is now. That has strayed into 'right wing caricature of their opponents' territory.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,642

    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
    Reading around, it's also relevant that Yaxley-Lennon used his fake names to conceal his criminal history for a number of years. He was not unmasked until 2010 - by Searchlight magazine.

    Of course, he doesn't like it. Which is another good reason for so doing.

    On a parallel, there are for example a number of Reform Councillors who are gradually having their pseudonyms and past conduct revealed - some of which is well-concealed, some of which is as dopey as Mr Magoo.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 11:10AM
    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    Don't get your Rolex stolen!
    Nobody on PB would be stupid enough to wear a Rolex...I don't mean just in London, I mean ever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 11:13AM
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
    Reading around, it's also relevant that Yaxley-Lennon used his fake names to conceal his criminal history for a number of years. He was not unmasked until 2010 - by Searchlight magazine.

    Of course, he doesn't like it. Which is another good reason for so doing.

    On a parallel, there are for example a number of Reform Councillors who are gradually having their pseudonyms and past conduct revealed - some of which is well-concealed, some of which is as dopey as Mr Magoo.
    15 years ago, that sort of proves my point, that it just isn't a big secret and it is mentioned 1000s of times.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,698
    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    That's my hood! Best place in London. What takes you there?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,035
    stodge said:

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there

    Oh dear, we're back to over-analysing one point moves in polls, I see. IF the Labour share had fallen from 22.6 to 22.4 rounding would have changed it from 23 to 22 so an actual 0.2% shift becomes a 1% shift.

    Hardly seismic.
    I didn't suggest it was seismic. I said it was poorish. Which it is. They could quite equally be back at 16 or 17% with them next week. Its a comment, I'm not projecting results off of it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,647
    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    The near disaster with the Spanish F-18 was real, apparently.
    Confirmed by the air force.

    Muchos nos habéis estado preguntando, por eso, en este hilo, os contamos qué pasó durante el festival aéreo de Gijón.

    Hilo 🧵

    https://x.com/EjercitoAire/status/1949849926852034974

    I think I would have taken my chances with the birdstrike rather than whatever the fuck that was. Still, he/she gets a great yarn out of it and that is what 80% of military aviation is all about.
    The first time I saw it I wondered if it was AI.
    The ability to retain control at low speed and such extreme attitudes is impressive.
    F/A-18 has a very good flight control system that has been honed to perfection over its long life. It has automatic spin recovery, g-limiting, etc. You have to work quite hard to crash one although old mate gave it a red hot go in that video.
    The Finns seem to do this kind of thing fairly frequently.
    https://x.com/ASobester/status/1946167399012598263
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,366
    stodge said:

    Wildly o/t (yet again) , or, just maybe, not. I've taking an interest recently in human migration and it has struck me that, as far as Europe is concerned, migration has generally been FROM the Middle East INTO Europe, and that this has been the case ever Homo sapiens first left Africa.
    Our last population change, around 600CE, was similar, in that it was from the East (continental Europe) to the British Isles.
    In that context, maybe the last 1000 years or so, with no significant migration from the East to the West have been atypical, unless the ability to cross the Atlantic has meant the migratory route bypassed us and went straight to the Americas.

    So crossing the Channel in (fairly) small boats is something that has been going on since before the dawn of history!

    Indeed and we had plenty of migration from Eastern Europe into Britain until the Iron Curtain descended in 1945 and we forget the large numbers who came here from Ireland in the mid 19th century (including some of my ancestors).

    There's something about people arriving in small boats which triggers a cultural response in an island nation and yet no one has come up with a coherent, workable, legal and cost-effective response to the problem. There's all sorts of flailing around from all sides but nothing approaching a solution.

    Arrest all illegal immigrants and deport them without process would seem a response of sorts except that's up there with kicking the can down the road as they will try again. I'm also not sure it's legal under the ECHR hence those calling for us to leave but I'd rather entrust my meat and two veg to a psychopath with a rusty saw than leave my human rights to be decided by the likes of Farage, Anderson, Tice, Badenoch and Jenrick.

    So we're back to a solution or the lack of one. IF there's a response, it's probably pan-European and involves dealing with the problem nearer the point of origin (Cameron had a point). That probably means a neo-liberal foreign policy which no one thinks works or can be afforded but how else do you stem or mitigate the flow of young men from the likes of Afghanistan, Syria or Eritrea?
    Fair point about migration from Eastern Europe, and the Irish. Someone posted something earlier which demonstrated anti-Irish feelings 100 or so years ago.
    I think a solution has to be pan-European and recognise, too, that some young men will always try to find greener grass than that at home, although they'll very often express sincere intentions to return or call for their families to join them.
    I think too that somehow we have to try and assist people from Afghanistan, Syria etc to be able to return, by helping their homelands to be better places to live, although to do so in Afghanistan at the moment will require divine intervention and assistance. (Which Divine, of course!).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,647
    Leon has persuaded Anthropic to change their charging structure.

    Some of the biggest Claude Code fans are running it continuously in the background, 24/7.

    These uses are remarkable and we want to enable them. But a few outlying cases are very costly to support. For example, one user consumed tens of thousands in model usage on a $200 plan.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/1949898511287226425
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 11:20AM
    Nigelb said:

    Leon has persuaded Anthropic to change their charging structure.

    Some of the biggest Claude Code fans are running it continuously in the background, 24/7.

    These uses are remarkable and we want to enable them. But a few outlying cases are very costly to support. For example, one user consumed tens of thousands in model usage on a $200 plan.

    https://x.com/AnthropicAI/status/1949898511287226425

    That actually might have been me.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230

    a

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    The lurch Right in response to stagnating living standards is indeed the Big Picture. It's disappointing. A significant chunk of the working classes in the West have decided to blame Immigrants. This is what is powering the Populist Right. There are other factors in the mix but xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment is the essential fuel. If people were instead to blame their woes on the inequitable distribution of wealth baked into capitalism the lurch would be more to the Left. The mission of the (up to now) underperforming wing of Populism (the Left variety) is to make this happen. We shouldn't rule it out. These are volatile times. Change can come quickly and left-field (pun intended) things can happen. Eg just as Donald Trump's win turbo'd the Populist Right globally, a backlash against it (which has to be quite likely) could do the same for the Left. You and ilk will be less bouncy then.
    The median voter in much of the West wants to tax the rich and large corporations more and send many of the immigrants back, hence Corbyn and Farage, Le Pen and Melenchon, Trump and Sanders, Linke and the AfD have all made gains
    In the West populism with a strong nativist component (us v them) seems to be an easier sell than one without. This is why it's hard for the Left to make a success of it. They shy away from that sort of thing. Their 'us v them' is workers v the capitalist boss class, an economic battleline. That doesn't resonate with people in the way that 'us' v immigrants does.

    White Workers of the West unite! You have nothing to lose but your Muslim Asylum Seekers!

    It doesn't swell my heart but it's closer to reality than the original.
    Which is, in turn, a reaction to language.

    I find it interesting that progressives talk in terms of things like “micro-aggressions” but when it comes to taking to the errrr… natives, they don’t think in the same terms.

    What “the natives” see is that immigration has been used for wage suppression, and in a strange alliance, supported by chunks of the traditional left.

    “There is no such thing as x culture and it’s evil anyway”
    I'm not arguing that unfettered mass immigration ad infinitum is either good or sustainable. I'm just trying to describe what's going on as I see it. In particular why it's the Right not the Left who are profiting from the disillusionment with mainstream politics and consequent surge in what we're calling "populism". It needs a fearful xenophobic angle to succeed and the Right are better at talking to and exploiting that impulse.
    I’m saying that the way to deal with such “populism” is to create a positive message/path

    Attlee & Co. said there was plenty wrong with the country. But they self evidently loved the country and its people.

    “You are shit. Your culture is both non-existent and shit. These other people - all of their culture is awesome and we like them. Even the bits of their culture which are the same as the bits of your non-existent culture. Which we hate.”

    It’s not a message that inspires.
    Who is saying that? I hear a lot more hating on British culture, especially working class culture, from the right than the left.
    They hate different bits.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,739

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there

    Labour seem to be having one of their (regular) comms catastrophe periods at the moment so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight increase in REFUK lead with some pollsters.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,104
    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    Catch the 666 bus.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,647
    Not to mention dangling a pardon for Maxwell in exchange for testimony discussed in a two day private session, solely with Trump's lawyer.

    The very idea that Trump’s former personal lawyers would play a role, much less a potentially decisive role, in determining whether he was complicit in any of Epstein’s misdeeds is an insult to our criminal justice system.
    https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/1949998517583298734
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,698

    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    Catch the 666 bus.
    The 36 actually.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,035
    Labour do appear to be going all in on the assault on Big Nige. They clearly think there's an angle to pursue here.
    Im dubious. Although Farage is hardly some untouchable beloved doyenne of the political scene inviting clutched pearls at the mere thought of mud thrown his way.
    Popcorn on the sidelines I reckon and enjoy the show
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,035

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there

    Labour seem to be having one of their (regular) comms catastrophe periods at the moment so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight increase in REFUK lead with some pollsters.
    Well that plus Epping etc has focused attention back on Reforms strongest suit
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,871
    Leon said:

    Thoughts and prayers for, well, me, as I have to go to something called “SE14”

    Ah, the other half of London :o
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,702
    edited 11:38AM
    Kemi has decided that the OSA she supported in the last government isn’t up to much .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,480

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there

    Labour seem to be having one of their (regular) comms catastrophe periods at the moment so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight increase in REFUK lead with some pollsters.
    What would you say were the Lab non-catastrophic comms periods of the last 12 months?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,480
    Battlebus said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Katie Lam has done a Jenrickvid. It’s pretty good. She’s coming through as another contender, for the upcoming job of Not Being Kemi

    I warn any sensitive PBers that she gets quite @williamglenn at the end

    https://x.com/katie_lam_mp/status/1950109307858509999?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Unlike Jenrick, Katie Lam looks comfortable in front of the camera. Ironically, the camera operator and director seem a bit dicey but we'd need @Roger to give his professional opinion.

    Politically, what is she playing at? Any would-be future leader needs to attract support from all wings of the party and to express a vision of Conservatism for the middle third of the 21st Century. With Cleverly rumoured to be shooting for London Mayor, there is space on that side of the park.
    The world - and the UK - is swinging firmly right. By 2028 this may well be a centrist stance and @williamglenn will be moderating PB

    So this is sensible positioning

    I do think she’d be a good choice for leader. Young, articulate, bold, not lightweight like Kemi. Kind of a Tory Katie Forbes

    Cleverly would do nothing (he should try for mayor) and Stride would be a pathetic disaster sealing their doom

    Jenrick or Lam
    Jenrick or Lam or Suella or Farage himself on the right. But in the centre, Lam would have a free run assuming Cleverly is looking elsewhere.
    On this specific issue, migration, benefits, leave to remain - etc - Lam probably sides with 70% of voters. She’d be mad to take any other position

    The voters are crying out for a government which - finally - belatedly - really WILL put an end to mass migration and the boats and all the rest of it

    Another betrayal would, I suspect, be met with civil unrest
    I didn't know you were so old. A piece by you or perhaps an ancestor? Diversity and the diaspora in 1921 Census. From

    https://www.findmypast.co.uk/blog/history/diversity-and-diaspora-in-the-1921-census




    Plus ça change, he still holds a weird grudge against the Irish.
    Something to with a massive sulk with anyone who rejects Britishness I guess.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,144
    edited 11:47AM

    Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (27-28 July 2025)

    Ref: 29% (+2 from 20-21 July)
    Lab: 22% (-1)
    Con: 17% (=)
    Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
    Green: 11% (=)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    YouGov also finding the recent slight uptick for Reform.
    Poorish LD for YouGov, equal lowest since the last GE with them
    No fruits - edit but highest 'others' since GE so maybe fruits are entering the chat there

    Labour seem to be having one of their (regular) comms catastrophe periods at the moment so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight increase in REFUK lead with some pollsters.
    What would you say were the Lab non-catastrophic comms periods of the last 12 months?
    I think I am going to need to ask the audience, phone a friend and go 50/50 ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,575
    After 17 years I've just found out that there's a transit train at Heathrow Terminal 5. Never departed from the terminal, only found out thanks to a YouTube video.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7inY06ssbK8
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,871
    edited 11:51AM
    nico67 said:

    Kemi has decided that the OSA she supported in the last government isn’t up to much .

    The LDs have been awfully quiet on this. I know Barnesian linked to them being against it but Davey has been quiet. Ol' Nige leading the charge (Well Yusuf actually).

    Are the Lib Dems primarily a liberal party or a "nice" party (Against Elon Musk and all that internet nastiness) ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,319

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    I find it really weird that the press always have to say Tommy Robinson, real name Stephen Yaxley-Lennon...they didn't write every article with Boris, real name, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel...

    Robinson has many names; he's also a con-man as well as a violent thug. He has used false ones on passports, company directorships and others. TBF to Boris, we know who he is; he's no Grant Shapps.

    Guardian piece mentioning 3 names in 3 para's, none of the Tommy Robinson:

    The court heard Lennon, who had previously been refused entry to the US, used his friend Andrew McMaster's passport to travel to New York in September. He used a self-check-in kiosk to board the flight at Heathrow, and was allowed through when the document was checked in the bag-drop area.

    But when he arrived at JFK, customs officials who took his fingerprints realised he was not McMaster. Lennon was asked to attend a second interview but left the airport, entering the US illegally.

    He stayed one night and travelled back to the UK using his own passport, which bears the name Paul Harris. The EDL leader uses several aliases.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/jan/07/edl-leader-jailed-passport-us

    I really don't know why anyone swallows the shtick - other than fellow-travellers who benefit from conning useful idiots.
    I still don't see how it is relevant in general articles. Lots of people call themselves by different names. The public know who he is. In court proceeding, yes it makes some sense, but otherwise, I just find it a strange obsession by the press that no matter what, they have to insert the phrase in there somewhere, it doesn't add anything.
    Reading around, it's also relevant that Yaxley-Lennon used his fake names to conceal his criminal history for a number of years. He was not unmasked until 2010 - by Searchlight magazine.

    Of course, he doesn't like it. Which is another good reason for so doing.

    On a parallel, there are for example a number of Reform Councillors who are gradually having their pseudonyms and past conduct revealed - some of which is well-concealed, some of which is as dopey as Mr Magoo.
    15 years ago, that sort of proves my point, that it just isn't a big secret and it is mentioned 1000s of times.
    Isn't part of the reason that court documents/proceedings will use his real name, so you need to explain that to the reader? And most times Tommy is in the news, it's because of court proceedings!
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