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Your afternoon watch – politicalbetting.com

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  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,315
    edited July 18
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I remain perplexed by the implied unwillingness of the caring, empathetic female doctors in the ED to share their changing facilities with a 6ft 2 man who thinks he is a women, yet say nothing to managers who are throwing the book at a nurse who said no.

    I noticed that the Dundee Courier has noticed that NHS Fife have issued a statement about the Information Connoisseur's response.

    NHS Fife's production of The Operating Theatre of The Absurd goes on for another run next week.

    The Information Connoisseur. I absolutely love it.
    A mistype, my excuse is that I had cataract operation, and am waiting for the new glasses to be made up, and the Vanilla update hasn't helped.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,141
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Some maths

    Home Office Data (2022–2024): The UK asylum system costs approximately £3-4.3 billion annually, with a significant portion attributed to accommodation, particularly hotels. In 2022, Migration Watch UK estimated hotel costs for asylum seekers at £1.3 billion per year for about 25,000 individuals, equating to roughly £51,100 per person per year (£4,258/month).

    If the average refugee costs us £50k per year and we take in 50,000 Afghans (many will cost more, some less) then that is an additional £2.5bn a YEAR, every year. If we take in 100,000, it's another £5bn a year, every year

    That stray email could easily end up costing us £50bn in a decade

    I'm struggling to keep up to be honest. Where does the figure of 100K come from?
    Leon's fevered imagination.
    I will be gobsmacked if only 100k of the 4m about to be expelled from Iran end up here. Where I disagree with @Leon is that I don't see this as an absurd overreaction to a leak (the Taliban took over the entire Afghan government FFS, do we really think they did not know who was in their own special forces??) but a consequence of a doomed asylum policy.
    The total number of Afghan-born people in the UK, across all possible routes of arrival (the resettlement programme + came over on small boats + moved here through regular means + etc.), is only about 100k. The idea that that number will now more than double seems dubious.
    Not if 4m get put out of Iran. But not as a consequence of government policy and ineptitude I agree.
    They've been kicked out of Iran and sent back to Afghanistan. Iran hasn't sent them to Calais.
    Not yet they haven't. And they are not going to stay there. They have left the country once already.
    Do you want a bet? Will 100,000 or more Afghan asylum seekers arrive in the UK over the next three years, or not? £10 to a charity of the winner's choice?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,881
    Scott_xP said:

    @euanmccolm

    they’re now considering not even showing the latest series of NHS Fife.

    That's funny but this sort of nonsense won't stop until the members of the Board get surcharged for the cost of this insanity.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,514
    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Good news for the CEO caught cheating at the Coldplay gig

    He doesn't work for NHS Fife...

    What a can of worms that’s turning out to be,
    I’m loving it. A lot of the stuff that NHS Fife have done is why people just keep schtum about their opinions. My Uni would probably make the same or similar mistakes. They jump over themselves to be inclusive and you don’t dare disagree with the narrative.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,303
    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 354
    edited July 18
    Should Diane Abbott have been suspended by Labour? I have been very belligerent on the antisemitism issue but the remarks I've seen look stupid rather than reprehensible.

    Not that Diane is stupid. Or at least she didn't used to be. I wonder if she is someone genuinely driven a little bit mad by social media. It's long been documented that she has been among the most abused MPs on the internet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,881
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Its not really news. Trump has used spurious law suits to try and bully and intimidate people throughout his adult life.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 879
    @turbotubbs - yes (sorry I'm in Africa atm and not online much). If you don't remember what I'm talking about I can fill you in :smile:
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,141
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Trump still owes E Jean Carroll $92 million for libel.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 354
    Does Trump regard making money as an end in itself? Or as a means to engaging in lawfare against his enemies?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,874

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Trump still owes E Jean Carroll $92 million for libel.
    Murdoch vs Trump.

    No way imho Rupert didn't personally agree in the end to publish and be damned.

    Alien vs Preditor?






  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,514

    @turbotubbs - yes (sorry I'm in Africa atm and not online much). If you don't remember what I'm talking about I can fill you in :smile:

    I remember! And enjoy Africa.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,929

    A video specially made for the people who don’t think lawlessness is a rising problem in London:

    https://x.com/crimeldn/status/1946249305515290885

    is it from tommy robinson?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,881

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Some maths

    Home Office Data (2022–2024): The UK asylum system costs approximately £3-4.3 billion annually, with a significant portion attributed to accommodation, particularly hotels. In 2022, Migration Watch UK estimated hotel costs for asylum seekers at £1.3 billion per year for about 25,000 individuals, equating to roughly £51,100 per person per year (£4,258/month).

    If the average refugee costs us £50k per year and we take in 50,000 Afghans (many will cost more, some less) then that is an additional £2.5bn a YEAR, every year. If we take in 100,000, it's another £5bn a year, every year

    That stray email could easily end up costing us £50bn in a decade

    I'm struggling to keep up to be honest. Where does the figure of 100K come from?
    Leon's fevered imagination.
    I will be gobsmacked if only 100k of the 4m about to be expelled from Iran end up here. Where I disagree with @Leon is that I don't see this as an absurd overreaction to a leak (the Taliban took over the entire Afghan government FFS, do we really think they did not know who was in their own special forces??) but a consequence of a doomed asylum policy.
    The total number of Afghan-born people in the UK, across all possible routes of arrival (the resettlement programme + came over on small boats + moved here through regular means + etc.), is only about 100k. The idea that that number will now more than double seems dubious.
    Not if 4m get put out of Iran. But not as a consequence of government policy and ineptitude I agree.
    They've been kicked out of Iran and sent back to Afghanistan. Iran hasn't sent them to Calais.
    Not yet they haven't. And they are not going to stay there. They have left the country once already.
    Do you want a bet? Will 100,000 or more Afghan asylum seekers arrive in the UK over the next three years, or not? £10 to a charity of the winner's choice?
    I'd need to see what happens in Iran first. They may change their mind.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,729
    Why do I get the sense that Trump’s lawsuit is going to end up triggering the Streisand Effect?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,303
    Dons tinfoil hat

    Murdoch is known for the long game. Why antagonise The King?

    Unless The King doesn't have long to live...

    Keeps wearing tinfoil hat, for now...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,303
    @cnn.com‬

    The Trump administration's chaotic handling of the so-called Jeffrey Epstein files continued as the Justice Department asked a federal judge to make public years-old grand jury testimony made behind closed doors against the convicted sex offender.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,296
    Tres said:

    A video specially made for the people who don’t think lawlessness is a rising problem in London:

    https://x.com/crimeldn/status/1946249305515290885

    is it from tommy robinson?
    No, it was uploaded by a resident whose reaction to witnessing a driver getting stabbed was to shout that there's a "free car" going.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,694

    Should Diane Abbott have been suspended by Labour? I have been very belligerent on the antisemitism issue but the remarks I've seen look stupid rather than reprehensible.

    Not that Diane is stupid. Or at least she didn't used to be. I wonder if she is someone genuinely driven a little bit mad by social media. It's long been documented that she has been among the most abused MPs on the internet.

    They echo her previous remarks, for which she was suspended, parsing racism. So this is her second strike. In isolation, perhaps not.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,786

    Tres said:

    A video specially made for the people who don’t think lawlessness is a rising problem in London:

    https://x.com/crimeldn/status/1946249305515290885

    is it from tommy robinson?
    No, it was uploaded by a resident whose reaction to witnessing a driver getting stabbed was to shout that there's a "free car" going.
    Do you live in London, William, or work there?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,710
    DougSeal said:

    Tres said:

    A video specially made for the people who don’t think lawlessness is a rising problem in London:

    https://x.com/crimeldn/status/1946249305515290885

    is it from tommy robinson?
    No, it was uploaded by a resident whose reaction to witnessing a driver getting stabbed was to shout that there's a "free car" going.
    Do you live in London, William, or work there?
    My money is on Moscow
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,082

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Some maths

    Home Office Data (2022–2024): The UK asylum system costs approximately £3-4.3 billion annually, with a significant portion attributed to accommodation, particularly hotels. In 2022, Migration Watch UK estimated hotel costs for asylum seekers at £1.3 billion per year for about 25,000 individuals, equating to roughly £51,100 per person per year (£4,258/month).

    If the average refugee costs us £50k per year and we take in 50,000 Afghans (many will cost more, some less) then that is an additional £2.5bn a YEAR, every year. If we take in 100,000, it's another £5bn a year, every year

    That stray email could easily end up costing us £50bn in a decade

    I'm struggling to keep up to be honest. Where does the figure of 100K come from?
    Leon's fevered imagination.
    I will be gobsmacked if only 100k of the 4m about to be expelled from Iran end up here. Where I disagree with @Leon is that I don't see this as an absurd overreaction to a leak (the Taliban took over the entire Afghan government FFS, do we really think they did not know who was in their own special forces??) but a consequence of a doomed asylum policy.
    The total number of Afghan-born people in the UK, across all possible routes of arrival (the resettlement programme + came over on small boats + moved here through regular means + etc.), is only about 100k. The idea that that number will now more than double seems dubious.
    Oh

    “Lawyers seek to use ECHR to force UK into accepting thousands more Afghans
    Up to 100,000 people could claim for resettlement by arguing that their human rights have been breached”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/07/17/lawyers-use-echr-to-force-uk-into-accepting-more-afghans/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,296
    To put the numbers in perspective, think of some of the prominent waves of immigration during the 20th century.

    As an example, the total number of Ugandan Asians who moved here was only about 28,000. Now that kind of figure is just a rounding error.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,874
    Scott_xP said:

    Dons tinfoil hat

    Murdoch is known for the long game. Why antagonise The King?

    Unless The King doesn't have long to live...

    Keeps wearing tinfoil hat, for now...


    Tim Miller
    @Timodc

    Lol filed in Aileen Cannon's district.

    https://x.com/Timodc/status/1946317792912769315
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,363
    DavidL said:

    Sir Keir Starmer is looking at creating a “Department for Downing Street” in an attempt to stop dysfunction at the centre of the Government. The shake-up would see a senior civil servant appointed to a lead role and scores of other officials drafted in, strengthening the Prime Minister’s ability to drive through change in Whitehall.

    We have obviously given up on Pat McFadden fiction of cutting the size of government.

    Surely we need a department of Administrative Affairs.
    That can only be under the future Stride administration.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,791

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 354
    Cicero said:

    Oh God... another evening when Leon fights to kill British democracy...

    Fortunately, despite his mostly ridiculous infantile media nonsense, the majority do not yet think that neo-Fascism is the solution.

    I don't know how things appear in Tallinn but a government that gives MBEs to sectarians who urge non-co-operation with the police isn't exactly helping itself.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 354

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    Please show me a well evidenced argument for genocide being committed in Gaza. I have yet to see one.

    And where is all the filming? The doubts about all the supposed deaths at the aid distribution sites comes from a lack of live documentary evidence, in spite of almost everyone having a mobile phone.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,094
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Its not really news. Trump has used spurious law suits to try and bully and intimidate people throughout his adult life.
    If you can call a petulant man-child an 'adult'.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,363
    Fired Epstein and Maxwell Prosecutor, Maurene Comey, just issued this following statement:

    "Yesterday was unexpectedly my last day in the Office. I was summarily fired via memo from Main Justice that did not give a reason for my termination.

    Every person lucky enough to work in this office constantly hears four words to describe our ethos: Without Fear or Favor. Do the right thing, the right way, for the right reasons without fear of retribution and without favor to the powerful.

    For the majority of my nearly ten years in SDNY, the hard part seemed to be acting “without favor.” That is, making sure people with access, money, and power were not treated differently than anyone else; and making sure this office remained separate from politics and focused only on the facts and the law. Fear was never really conceivable. We don’t fear bad press; we have the luxury of exceptional security keeping us physically safe; and, so long as we did our work with integrity, we would get to keep serving the public in this office.

    But we have entered a new phase where “without fear” may be the challenge. If a career prosecutor can be fired without reason, fear may seep into the decisions of those who remain. Do not let that happen. Fear is the tool of a tyrant, wielded to suppress independent thought. Instead of fear, let this moment fuel the fire that already burns at the heart of this place. A fire of righteous indignation at abuses of power. Of commitment to seek justice for victims. Of dedication to truth above all else.

    It has been an honor to fight for those principles by your side.

    https://x.com/krassenstein/status/1945877435893027211
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,094

    Cicero said:

    Oh God... another evening when Leon fights to kill British democracy...

    Fortunately, despite his mostly ridiculous infantile media nonsense, the majority do not yet think that neo-Fascism is the solution.

    I don't know how things appear in Tallinn but a government that gives MBEs to sectarians who urge non-co-operation with the police isn't exactly helping itself.
    Theresa May at least had the decency to give such people a billion quid in straight cash rather than fob them off with an MBE.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,874
    Meanwhile back at Coldplay:


    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump

    Who did this?🤣🤣

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1946313695681781839
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,729
    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    Indeed

    By the way, what do you make of NHS Fife trying to re-enact the gasoline water pistol fight from Zoolander 2, while juggling with road flares?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,178
    edited July 18
    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    One attempt at genocide does not justify another.

    "Never Again!" is only meaningful if it is "Never Again - for anyone"
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,335
    edited July 18
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    One attempt at genocide does not justify another.

    "Never Again!" is only meaningful if it is "Never Again - for anyone"
    No, but one attempt at genocide does justify the other side vanquishing their foes and ensuring their defeat.

    Israel has every right to destroy Hamas. Hamas can surrender unconditionally at any stage and end this war. Nothing less than the complete destruction of Hamas and elimination of their threat is enough. That's not genocide, its war.

    However you don't want an Israeli victory over Hamas, even after what they did, do you?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,328

    Last week I mentioned one of the SWP types in Manchester city centre wearing really expensive trainers...

    Palestine Action activist wore £6,000 gown to debutante ball

    Georgie Robertson, 32, the daughter of Kathy Lette, the author, and Geoffrey Robertson KC, the human rights lawyer, has gone from Cannes to the courts


    The Crillon Ball is described by Tatler as the “world’s most glamorous debutante ball”. Georgie Robertson came out to society in a £6,000 gown, alongside Princess Diana’s niece Lady Kitty Spencer, and boasted afterwards of a “fairytale event in which the aristocracy rub sequinned shoulder pads with the celebritocracy”.

    Fast forward to 2025 and the 32-year-old daughter of Kathy Lette, the author, and Geoffrey Robertson KC, the human rights lawyer, has swapped pearls for protest.

    The former Labour press officer under Jeremy Corbyn was helping Palestine Action with its press coverage as it fought being proscribed by the government in court.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/tatler-palestine-action-georgie-robertson-h8p3mjrq9

    What I always wonder about these people is whether or not they realise that in the event of a revolution they'll be the first to be sent to the gulags. I guess they don't have that level of self awareness.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,294
    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    One attempt at genocide does not justify another.

    "Never Again!" is only meaningful if it is "Never Again - for anyone"
    My memory of the middle east conflict as a child is of Palestinian teenagers slingshotting stones at Israeli soldiers in Jerusalem and being shot at with plastic bullets.
    You don't see that anymore because there are no longer any Palestinian teenagers in Jerusalem and the press aren't allowed to witness, let alone film the Israeli soldiers shooting Palestinians.
    Even Ehud Olmert has called it out for what it is.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,277
    edited 12:00AM

    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    How many deaths in the civilian population of Gaza will it take to atone what happed on the seventh?

    You are rightly so strident about the injustices our society. Can you not see them in Gaza? To be a civilian in the strip is to be bombed and starved and denied medication food and water. To have your home demolished, schools and universities razed and hospitals systematically shut down. Whole families are knowingly bombed out of existence to kill one militant. You are usually so free with your words of condemnation, do you have any for these victims of injustice or have you missed their suffering?

    I'll ask: how can the razing of an entire city be a proportionate response to the seventh?
    To bring some polling into this, the Israeli government have comprehensively lost the argument. The number of people who think their response is proportionate is 12%, so they are significantly over-represented on PB.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/03/public-support-for-israel-in-western-europe-lowest-ever-recorded-yougov?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,086
    Per Wikipedia:

    Between January 2008 and October 2023:
    Israelis killed by armed Palestinians: 308
    Palestinians killed by armed Israelis: 6,407

    On October 7th 2023:
    Israelis killed by armed Palestinians: 1,195
    Palestinians killed by armed Israelis: 1,609

    Since October 7th 2023:
    Israelis killed by armed Palestians: 851
    Palestinians killed by armed Israelis: 73,601
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,713

    carnforth said:

    I've changed the layout to the old version of Vanilla.

    I'm now getting desktop vanilla on my phone. Can you change it back?
    Vanilla sucks donkey dicks.

    They've removed the optimise for mobile devices option (or hidden it somewhere obscure.)
    Vanilla announce "reforms" that somehow make everything much worse.

    Are you sure they're not run by the Government somehow?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    Fishing said:

    carnforth said:

    I've changed the layout to the old version of Vanilla.

    I'm now getting desktop vanilla on my phone. Can you change it back?
    Vanilla sucks donkey dicks.

    They've removed the optimise for mobile devices option (or hidden it somewhere obscure.)
    Vanilla announce "reforms" that somehow make everything much worse.

    Are you sure they're not run by the Government somehow?
    If it was the government we would still be at the stage of agreeing an agreement to form a committee to discuss potential reforms.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    edited 2:09AM
    Starmer has lost the Danny Dyer vote...

    [Keir's] a f****** non-entity. I feel sorry for the people when he goes to a factory and they put these poor people behind him and you can tell they all hate his guts'.

    'We need a leader. He’s not a leader. I don’t know what the f*** he is. He’s only in power because the Tories were such c****'.

    Can join the club with Cameron, Boris, ....
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,713
    edited 2:58AM

    Foxy said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    One attempt at genocide does not justify another.

    "Never Again!" is only meaningful if it is "Never Again - for anyone"
    No, but one attempt at genocide does justify the other side vanquishing their foes and ensuring their defeat.

    Israel has every right to destroy Hamas. Hamas can surrender unconditionally at any stage and end this war. Nothing less than the complete destruction of Hamas and elimination of their threat is enough. That's not genocide, its war.
    Even if that did happen, some other form of Hamas would arise in short order. Israel has ensured that by killing tens of thousands of people, meaning hundreds of thousands of new recruits for the terrorists. This type of low-intensity conflict will continue unless either Israel gets serious about committing genocide, which it won't, or it somehow addresses Palestinians' grievances about the land it nicked in the 40s and 1967, which doesn't look particularly likely.

    I suppose it's asking too much to expect the Orthodox Jewish parties who in effect control the government and notoriously despise everybody who isn't an Orthodox Jew to empathise with the people who they continue to treat as second class citizens, and who did, after all, massacre more than a thousand of them a couple of years ago. But it really should have dawned on them, after all their practice in this area, that making martyrs of people many of whom welcome martyrdom doesn't pay.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,178

    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    How many deaths in the civilian population of Gaza will it take to atone what happed on the seventh?

    You are rightly so strident about the injustices our society. Can you not see them in Gaza? To be a civilian in the strip is to be bombed and starved and denied medication food and water. To have your home demolished, schools and universities razed and hospitals systematically shut down. Whole families are knowingly bombed out of existence to kill one militant. You are usually so free with your words of condemnation, do you have any for these victims of injustice or have you missed their suffering?

    I'll ask: how can the razing of an entire city be a proportionate response to the seventh?
    Systematically denying food and water to the civilian population in Gaza, then shooting the desperate women and children queueing for what little is available happens almost every day.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74zj9kv2xjo

    This week the Catholic Church that shelters several hundred of Gaza's Christian community was hit by a shell from an Israeli tank.

    https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/17/middleeast/pope-leo-israel-strike-gaza-church-intl

    If people cannot see the moral evil of such a cavalier attitude to civilian casualties and thinks them justifiable, then there is little point debating them in a forum like this.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    Ten more hostages will be released from Gaza “very shortly”, Donald Trump said at the White House Friday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    Thousands of Afghans whose personal details were leaked but who were not evacuated to Britain are not expected to receive any compensation. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) will "robustly defend against any legal action or compensation", a spokesperson told the BBC, adding that these were "hypothetical claims".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20pd5035vyo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    This is insanely impressive from Veo3 model,

    "[video game] as a community theater production" may be one of the most delightful Veo 3 Fast prompts. Please enjoy, in order: GTA, Pokemon, Mario Kart, The Witcher 3, Stardew Valley, Tetris, Mortal Kombat, The Sims, & Death Stranding(!)

    https://x.com/emollick/status/1946406544171569438
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    edited 4:44AM
    This is some CCP type shit,

    The Supreme Court recently struck down affirmative action in college admissions. But some colleges have come up with a new way to dilute meritocracy that relies much less on explicit racial preferences and more on evaluations of social conformity:

    This fall, an expanding number of top schools — including Columbia, M.I.T., Northwestern, Johns Hopkins, Vanderbilt and the University of Chicago — will begin accepting “dialogues” portfolios from Schoolhouse.world, a platform co-founded by Sal Khan, the founder of Khan Academy…High-schoolers will log into a Zoom call with other students and a peer tutor, debate topics like immigration or Israel-Palestine, and rate one another on traits like empathy, curiosity or kindness. The Schoolhouse.world site offers a scorecard: The more sessions you attend, and the more that your fellow participants recognize your virtues, the better you do.

    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-c56?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,263


    Dr. Buzz Aldrin
    @TheRealBuzz
    ·
    2h
    Where were you #OTD (in fact, on this exact day – Friday, July 18th, 1969) 56 years ago? I can tell you where I was…on the way to the Moon! Happy #Apollo11 Friday!

    I quite like Aldrin. His book "Magnificent Desolation" highlights how the event essentially destroyed his life, stopping him from progressing in either the military or civilian spheres and leaving him drifting and listless for decades.

    Collins, on the other hand, seemed to understand the effect it would have, and chose to take control of his future; leaving the Apollo program out of choice, even though he had the opportunity to actually land on the Moon on a later mission.

    For some reason I find it quite hard to like Armstrong.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,319
    edited 5:00AM
    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Leon said:

    I'll tell you who does really surprisingly well online - and I mean online print not online video

    GBNews. No kidding

    Someone showed me "some figures" today. It is remarkable. They are turning into a successful FoxNews for the UK

    Judging by the YT stats - most of their views are in the US. So possibly more an alternative FoxNews for the USA.

    That's not what I heard today. They are doing really well in Britain, to the extent they are threatening British tabloids
    There could be something in that. I keep an eye on it, and their coverage is very much "Daily Mail TV" style imo.

    However, a couple of videos getting 100k views a day is far behind a lot of even individual commentators (say BBB who is also after the populist-right niche) - even if it is relatively (given their size) better than some more MSM-y outfits.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,263

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    Some maths

    Home Office Data (2022–2024): The UK asylum system costs approximately £3-4.3 billion annually, with a significant portion attributed to accommodation, particularly hotels. In 2022, Migration Watch UK estimated hotel costs for asylum seekers at £1.3 billion per year for about 25,000 individuals, equating to roughly £51,100 per person per year (£4,258/month).

    If the average refugee costs us £50k per year and we take in 50,000 Afghans (many will cost more, some less) then that is an additional £2.5bn a YEAR, every year. If we take in 100,000, it's another £5bn a year, every year

    That stray email could easily end up costing us £50bn in a decade

    I'm struggling to keep up to be honest. Where does the figure of 100K come from?
    Leon's fevered imagination.
    I will be gobsmacked if only 100k of the 4m about to be expelled from Iran end up here. Where I disagree with @Leon is that I don't see this as an absurd overreaction to a leak (the Taliban took over the entire Afghan government FFS, do we really think they did not know who was in their own special forces??) but a consequence of a doomed asylum policy.
    The total number of Afghan-born people in the UK, across all possible routes of arrival (the resettlement programme + came over on small boats + moved here through regular means + etc.), is only about 100k. The idea that that number will now more than double seems dubious.
    Not if 4m get put out of Iran. But not as a consequence of government policy and ineptitude I agree.
    They've been kicked out of Iran and sent back to Afghanistan. Iran hasn't sent them to Calais.
    Russia, Iran's partner in crime, have been using migrants to cause trouble to western countries for years. They have been flying migrants into Russia, shipping them to Belarus, and then to the border with Poland and other EU neighbouring EU states.

    I would not be surprised if Iran was doing, or would try, weaponising migrants.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,319

    Starmer has lost the Danny Dyer vote...

    [Keir's] a f****** non-entity. I feel sorry for the people when he goes to a factory and they put these poor people behind him and you can tell they all hate his guts'.

    'We need a leader. He’s not a leader. I don’t know what the f*** he is. He’s only in power because the Tories were such c****'.

    Can join the club with Cameron, Boris, ....

    And Farage.

    Dyer has been an outspoken critic of former Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron. In 2018, he referred to Cameron as a "twat" on live television, while also expressing contempt for Nigel Farage and Brexit. He voted for Brexit, but later changed his mind and considered himself to be a "poster boy" for the campaign to stop it. (Wiki)

    And today Danny sticks by his comments going one step further by saying he “f****** hates” Cameron as well as that “other p**** Nigel Farage”.
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/danny-dyer-brexit-interview-changed-12998659

    I think the best way of dealing with Danny Dyer is perhaps to give him a drawing of the moon on a Post-It note, and leave him alone in his loo to howl at it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,464

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Trump still owes E Jean Carroll $92 million for libel.
    Murdoch vs Trump.

    No way imho Rupert didn't personally agree in the end to publish and be damned.

    Alien vs Preditor?
    Losing Fox News as a result of this would be akin to Finland and Sweden joining NATO as a consequence of Putin's 3-day SMO.

    Murdoch lost a $767m law suit in running the story about voting machine fraud - to help Trump. Now he has published in the WSJ even after being told by Trump that "letter" did not exist.

    My money is on the letter exists. More importantly, so is Murdoch's.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,322

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Trump still owes E Jean Carroll $92 million for libel.
    Murdoch vs Trump.

    No way imho Rupert didn't personally agree in the end to publish and be damned.

    Alien vs Preditor?
    Losing Fox News as a result of this would be akin to Finland and Sweden joining NATO as a consequence of Putin's 3-day SMO.

    Murdoch lost a $767m law suit in running the story about voting machine fraud - to help Trump. Now he has published in the WSJ even after being told by Trump that "letter" did not exist.

    My money is on the letter exists. More importantly, so is Murdoch's.
    Trump bullies little people with lawsuits knowing that regardless of merit, they can’t afford the cost or the risk. How is that going to work with Murdoch?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,322
    edited 5:32AM
    Arctic Weather update: a few patches of high cloud, this morning. The first cloud of any significance I have seen for days. Otherwise, dry, sunny and warm.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,147
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    edited 5:36AM
    Trump opening a lawsuit over the birthday card story is full Streisand effect. It wasn't really much of a story, rich famous person sends birthday card to bloke who is friends with all the rich and famous and crucially it was before Epstein was convicted of anything.

    Now the WSJ might have something bigger, but a lawsuit isn't going to stop Murdoch backed media one way or the other if they do.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,319
    edited 5:38AM

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Trump still owes E Jean Carroll $92 million for libel.
    Murdoch vs Trump.

    No way imho Rupert didn't personally agree in the end to publish and be damned.

    Alien vs Preditor?
    Losing Fox News as a result of this would be akin to Finland and Sweden joining NATO as a consequence of Putin's 3-day SMO.

    Murdoch lost a $767m law suit in running the story about voting machine fraud - to help Trump. Now he has published in the WSJ even after being told by Trump that "letter" did not exist.

    My money is on the letter exists. More importantly, so is Murdoch's.
    I'd suggest that the note will be published, unless Maxwell get's either a retrial that releases her, or a pardon from Trump, that would also get her out.

    My (looks likely but there is not enough to prove it) interpretation is that there's a lot more, and this is a shot across Trump's bows by someone associated with Maxwell.

    In this view, one interesting angle is what restraints whoever supplied the material can put on the WSJ, if Trump challenges them. Another interesting angle is who is backing Maxwell, though they presumably remain a very wealthy family.

    Trump will TACO, somehow - it's a day with D in it, and he is shit-scared about going to prison as he always has been.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,322

    Trump opening a lawsuit over the birthday card story is full Streisand effect. It wasn't really much of a story, rich famous person sends birthday card to bloke who is friends with all the rich and famous and crucially it was before Epstein was convicted of anything.

    Now the WSJ might have something bigger, but a lawsuit isn't going to stop Murdoch backed media one way or the other if they do.

    It’s probably a deterrent to anyone of less means who might be tempted to weigh in - or might have something to share - but the case itself is surely a loser.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    edited 5:42AM
    MattW said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING on MSNBC:

    Donald Trump has just filed a lawsuit against Dow Jones, News Corp, Rupert Murdoch and two Wall Street Journal reporters. The claims: libel, assault, slander.

    Trump still owes E Jean Carroll $92 million for libel.
    Murdoch vs Trump.

    No way imho Rupert didn't personally agree in the end to publish and be damned.

    Alien vs Preditor?
    Losing Fox News as a result of this would be akin to Finland and Sweden joining NATO as a consequence of Putin's 3-day SMO.

    Murdoch lost a $767m law suit in running the story about voting machine fraud - to help Trump. Now he has published in the WSJ even after being told by Trump that "letter" did not exist.

    My money is on the letter exists. More importantly, so is Murdoch's.
    I'd suggest that the note will be published, unless Maxwell get's either a retrial that releases her, or a pardon from Trump, that would also get her out.

    My (looks likely but there is not enough to prove it) interpretation is that there's a lot more, and this is a shot across Trump's bows by someone associated with Maxwell.

    In this view, one interesting angle is what restraints whoever supplied the material can put on the WSJ, if Trump challenges them. Another interesting angle is who is backing Maxwell, though they presumably remain a very wealthy family.

    Trump will TACO, somehow - it's a day with D in it, and he is shit-scared about going to prison as he always has been.
    If it was this, Trump obviously didn't get the message....he could have easily responded, I don't recall sending a birthday card, but I sent a lot of cards. As everybody knows Epstein was active in the social scene at the time, regular at Democrat events don't you know, but this was before he was charged and I didn't know anything was amiss. To me he was just another rich successful person on the party scene.

    But of course he goes straight for the its all bigly lies....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,777

    This is some CCP type shit,

    The Supreme Court recently struck down affirmative action in college admissions. But some colleges have come up with a new way to dilute meritocracy that relies much less on explicit racial preferences and more on evaluations of social conformity:

    This fall, an expanding number of top schools — including Columbia, M.I.T., Northwestern, Johns Hopkins, Vanderbilt and the University of Chicago — will begin accepting “dialogues” portfolios from Schoolhouse.world, a platform co-founded by Sal Khan, the founder of Khan Academy…High-schoolers will log into a Zoom call with other students and a peer tutor, debate topics like immigration or Israel-Palestine, and rate one another on traits like empathy, curiosity or kindness. The Schoolhouse.world site offers a scorecard: The more sessions you attend, and the more that your fellow participants recognize your virtues, the better you do.

    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/at-least-five-interesting-things-c56?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share

    This is just interviewing writ large. I'd get rid of interviewing entirely fwiw.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    edited 5:48AM
    IanB2 said:

    Trump opening a lawsuit over the birthday card story is full Streisand effect. It wasn't really much of a story, rich famous person sends birthday card to bloke who is friends with all the rich and famous and crucially it was before Epstein was convicted of anything.

    Now the WSJ might have something bigger, but a lawsuit isn't going to stop Murdoch backed media one way or the other if they do.

    It’s probably a deterrent to anyone of less means who might be tempted to weigh in - or might have something to share - but the case itself is surely a loser.
    The people who would know something and can stand it up, if there is something to know, are rich, famous and connected, so I doubt it would have any effect.

    I am still very dubious that there is some huge scandal. At the time, Trump was well in with Democrats in NY, and the PIs and the media have dug around for 12 years. There might be more embarrassing stories like this birthday card story, but some huge major scandal, I think if there was it would have been deployed prior to the General Election to stop him getting reelected.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,319
    edited 5:56AM
    Post-midnight, so now I have my photo quota back, this is one before/after shot from the actions of Israel in Gaza.

    This is comparing March 25 2025 and July 4 2025. Checking the timeline *, the ceasefire was January 19, 2025, which Israel broke on Match 18 2025.

    I don't know if anyone else has comparisons, but I'm thinking of cities deliberately demolished to expel their people and prevent return, after occupation has been achieved. I'm not even sure if Mariupol or Warsaw 1944 are in that category. What comparisons can we make?



    There's a whole series of Geneva Convention breaches here. Netanyahu will imo have Trump's support, as he wishes to destroy the international rule of law.

    BBC piece, with fuller analysis.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,777
    An interesting point in FrancisUrquhart's link concerns the political equilibrium of AI LLMs.

    ...when not instructed to have a certain political leaning, LLMs tend to converge on one very specific type of politics: social liberalism and economic libertarianism
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/i/168618295/ai-has-a-well-known-liberal-bias

    Note that in America, that is seen as leftist, aligned with Clinton and Obama. But here, this is mainstream Conservatism. LLMs would vote for David Cameron, Boris or Rishi.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,767
    edited 6:01AM

    An interesting point in FrancisUrquhart's link concerns the political equilibrium of AI LLMs.

    ...when not instructed to have a certain political leaning, LLMs tend to converge on one very specific type of politics: social liberalism and economic libertarianism
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/i/168618295/ai-has-a-well-known-liberal-bias

    Note that in America, that is seen as leftist, aligned with Clinton and Obama. But here, this is mainstream Conservatism. LLMs would vote for David Cameron, Boris or Rishi.

    I am not sure that is true about the US. Economic liberalism used to be very much part of the Republican party.

    My presumption would be that huge amounts of academic literature continually point to that being a better option. And academia on social issues always leans liberal. Its feels like what the mean would tend to if you asked the economics departments and social sciences to give their expert opinions in their fields.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,690
    The Afghan asylum story is completely insane, but sadly nothing surprises me on this subject anymore.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,690
    On my phone the text for posted comments is really big, but that for posting your own comment in response, or liking or quoting another, is absolutely tiny.

    Have Vanilla got their work experience kid to do this "upgrade" ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,322
    MattW said:

    Post-midnight, so now I have my photo quota back, this is one before/after shot from the actions of Israel in Gaza.

    This is comparing March 25 2025 and July 4 2025. Checking the timeline *, the ceasefire was January 19, 2025, which Israel broke on Match 18 2025.

    I don't know if anyone else has comparisons, but I'm thinking of cities deliberately demolished to expel their people and prevent return, after occupation has been achieved. I'm not even sure if Mariupol or Warsaw 1944 are in that category. What comparisons can we make?



    There's a whole series of Geneva Convention breaches here. Netanyahu will imo have Trump's support, as he wishes to destroy the international rule of law.

    BBC piece, with fuller analysis.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire

    Carthage? Although the IDF hasn’t, yet, salted the ground.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,464
    The stuff that intrigues me about Epstein is - where did the money come from to allow his billionaire lifestyle?

    Sure, it could have been he was blackmailing the rich and famous on a grand scale. But that is a really good way to end up dead, long before any trial looms.

    It strikes me he was more likely collecting intel on said rich and famous on behalf of a state player. A state player able to use that intel in a number of far more subtle ways. A state player able to protect Epstein. A state player happy to justify paying 9-figure sums for a goldmine of kinky/sordid stuff.

    The two obvious candidates are Russia and Israel.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,464
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Post-midnight, so now I have my photo quota back, this is one before/after shot from the actions of Israel in Gaza.

    This is comparing March 25 2025 and July 4 2025. Checking the timeline *, the ceasefire was January 19, 2025, which Israel broke on Match 18 2025.

    I don't know if anyone else has comparisons, but I'm thinking of cities deliberately demolished to expel their people and prevent return, after occupation has been achieved. I'm not even sure if Mariupol or Warsaw 1944 are in that category. What comparisons can we make?



    There's a whole series of Geneva Convention breaches here. Netanyahu will imo have Trump's support, as he wishes to destroy the international rule of law.

    BBC piece, with fuller analysis.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire

    Carthage? Although the IDF hasn’t, yet, salted the ground.
    That will be for the Trump family to do, to ensure the land can only be used for waterfront casinos.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,319
    There's more background with Trump, the card, Florida, and the SCOTUS Appeal, which I'm not sure we have mentioned it.

    Back in 2008-9, when Epstein was briefly imprisoned in Florida for trafficking girls / women for prostitution, he received a massively lenient plea deal. There were 36 girls / women identified, and he plead guilty to 2 specimen charges. The plea deal gave him a short prison sentence, with work release to his own office.

    It also agreed to leave Co-Conspirators alone, which aiui is the basis of Maxwell's SCOTUS Appeal, and Trump's team of lawyers under Bondi are arguing dot-and-tittle as to whether it applies.

    In the plea deal there was no recognisance that some of the victims were children.

    The plea deal was negotiated by the Florida US Attorney in Miami Alex Acosta. Alex Acosta later became a Minister in Trump's first administration - Labour Secretary.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/09/politics/acosta-defends-epstein-deal
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,337
    Eabhal said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Say what you want about Hamas but they could teach us a thing or two about handling big infrastructure projects. They managed to construct a network of tunnels in Gaza bigger than the London Underground on a shoestring budget and were so discreet that none of the NGOs flooding Gaza knew anything about it, even with military bases adjacent to hospitals and schools. If you wanted to get something done in spite of the nimby protesters you'd be best hiring Hamas builders.

    In many years time the internet archives will be trawled by academics curious to what it takes to justify this genocide, They might even find you, Someone unable to overcome their base prejudice and willing to overlook every action by a nation that films what it is doing and telegraphs the atrocities to come.

    You have the reaction you were looking for. But it damns you.
    You must have missed the films Hamas made of the atrocities and murders they committed on October 7th and subsequently of the hostages. I expect academics curious to know how this sort of slaughter - the worst atrocity against Jews since WW2 - came about will be looking at how such a group felt able to film its atrocities and how so many other people nonetheless sought to deny the existence, scale and brutality of such atrocities and their genocidal intent.
    How many deaths in the civilian population of Gaza will it take to atone what happed on the seventh?

    You are rightly so strident about the injustices our society. Can you not see them in Gaza? To be a civilian in the strip is to be bombed and starved and denied medication food and water. To have your home demolished, schools and universities razed and hospitals systematically shut down. Whole families are knowingly bombed out of existence to kill one militant. You are usually so free with your words of condemnation, do you have any for these victims of injustice or have you missed their suffering?

    I'll ask: how can the razing of an entire city be a proportionate response to the seventh?
    To bring some polling into this, the Israeli government have comprehensively lost the argument. The number of people who think their response is proportionate is 12%, so they are significantly over-represented on PB.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/03/public-support-for-israel-in-western-europe-lowest-ever-recorded-yougov?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
    I believe the Israeli government still has majority support in Israel for their actions in Gaza. I have it on good authority (PB) that they don’t give a shit what the outside world thinks* so I guess that’s what matters.

    *aside from screeching antisemitism and blood libel at every utterance of random pop stars, trying to finagle the voting in Eurovision, sucking off Trump to keep the flow of kid-killing munitions going and demanding that they be considered the vanguard of western civilisation.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,263

    The stuff that intrigues me about Epstein is - where did the money come from to allow his billionaire lifestyle?

    Sure, it could have been he was blackmailing the rich and famous on a grand scale. But that is a really good way to end up dead, long before any trial looms.

    It strikes me he was more likely collecting intel on said rich and famous on behalf of a state player. A state player able to use that intel in a number of far more subtle ways. A state player able to protect Epstein. A state player happy to justify paying 9-figure sums for a goldmine of kinky/sordid stuff.

    The two obvious candidates are Russia and Israel.

    Money means everything, and very little, to the extremely rich. Especially the 'new' rich. Hence if you become friends with a billionaire, you might find yourself granted all sorts of 'gifts'. And, if you are of the mindset, contacts. Or investment opportunities. If you are of the mindset it becomes easy to leverage these to gain more gifts, more contacts, and more investment opportunities.

    You just need to know how to manipulate that sort of crowd.

    State players may have been involved, but from the little I've read, I think the central controlling force was Epstein himself.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,814

    NEW THREAD

  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,319
    dr_spyn said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I remain perplexed by the implied unwillingness of the caring, empathetic female doctors in the ED to share their changing facilities with a 6ft 2 man who thinks he is a women, yet say nothing to managers who are throwing the book at a nurse who said no.

    I noticed that the Dundee Courier has noticed that NHS Fife have issued a statement about the Information Connoisseur's response.

    NHS Fife's production of The Operating Theatre of The Absurd goes on for another run next week.

    The Information Connoisseur. I absolutely love it.
    A mistype, my excuse is that I had cataract operation, and am waiting for the new glasses to be made up, and the Vanilla update hasn't helped.
    Wishing you all the best with it.

    My mum had both eyes done by the same Doctor - the first one in the excellent local NHS hospital, and the other one in the local private hospital to get it done quickly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,777

    The stuff that intrigues me about Epstein is - where did the money come from to allow his billionaire lifestyle?

    Sure, it could have been he was blackmailing the rich and famous on a grand scale. But that is a really good way to end up dead, long before any trial looms.

    It strikes me he was more likely collecting intel on said rich and famous on behalf of a state player. A state player able to use that intel in a number of far more subtle ways. A state player able to protect Epstein. A state player happy to justify paying 9-figure sums for a goldmine of kinky/sordid stuff.

    The two obvious candidates are Russia and Israel.

    It is possible but surely more likely is that Epstein was a fund manager and people gave him funds to manage, for which service he charged (say) 2 per cent.

    Of course, both could be true since the cleanest way to pay Epstein for spycraft would be to have the National Bank Pension Fund of EvilState give Epstein, $5 billion (say) to manage on which he could charge commission of $100 million a year for investing in US government bonds.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,777

    An interesting point in FrancisUrquhart's link concerns the political equilibrium of AI LLMs.

    ...when not instructed to have a certain political leaning, LLMs tend to converge on one very specific type of politics: social liberalism and economic libertarianism
    https://www.noahpinion.blog/i/168618295/ai-has-a-well-known-liberal-bias

    Note that in America, that is seen as leftist, aligned with Clinton and Obama. But here, this is mainstream Conservatism. LLMs would vote for David Cameron, Boris or Rishi.

    I am not sure that is true about the US. Economic liberalism used to be very much part of the Republican party.

    My presumption would be that huge amounts of academic literature continually point to that being a better option. And academia on social issues always leans liberal. Its feels like what the mean would tend to if you asked the economics departments and social sciences to give their expert opinions in their fields.
    Alignment with Clinton and Obama comes directly from the linked paper.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,147
    IanB2 said:

    MattW said:

    Post-midnight, so now I have my photo quota back, this is one before/after shot from the actions of Israel in Gaza.

    This is comparing March 25 2025 and July 4 2025. Checking the timeline *, the ceasefire was January 19, 2025, which Israel broke on Match 18 2025.

    I don't know if anyone else has comparisons, but I'm thinking of cities deliberately demolished to expel their people and prevent return, after occupation has been achieved. I'm not even sure if Mariupol or Warsaw 1944 are in that category. What comparisons can we make?



    There's a whole series of Geneva Convention breaches here. Netanyahu will imo have Trump's support, as he wishes to destroy the international rule of law.

    BBC piece, with fuller analysis.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-33fccfbe-abcc-4af1-bdd2-632b2787cf59

    * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire

    Carthage? Although the IDF hasn’t, yet, salted the ground.
    Salt? White phosphorus is the chosen chemical.

    https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/05/lebanon-israels-white-phosphorous-use-risks-civilian-harm
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,096
    ..

    The stuff that intrigues me about Epstein is - where did the money come from to allow his billionaire lifestyle?

    Sure, it could have been he was blackmailing the rich and famous on a grand scale. But that is a really good way to end up dead, long before any trial looms.

    It strikes me he was more likely collecting intel on said rich and famous on behalf of a state player. A state player able to use that intel in a number of far more subtle ways. A state player able to protect Epstein. A state player happy to justify paying 9-figure sums for a goldmine of kinky/sordid stuff.

    The two obvious candidates are Russia and Israel.

    The sole candidate for such an operation is the USA. Why would they have allowed a massive spying operation capturing their biggest figures in business and politics to be carried out by Russia or even Israel right in their back yard? Don't be silly.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,147

    ..

    The stuff that intrigues me about Epstein is - where did the money come from to allow his billionaire lifestyle?

    Sure, it could have been he was blackmailing the rich and famous on a grand scale. But that is a really good way to end up dead, long before any trial looms.

    It strikes me he was more likely collecting intel on said rich and famous on behalf of a state player. A state player able to use that intel in a number of far more subtle ways. A state player able to protect Epstein. A state player happy to justify paying 9-figure sums for a goldmine of kinky/sordid stuff.

    The two obvious candidates are Russia and Israel.

    The sole candidate for such an operation is the USA. Why would they have allowed a massive spying operation capturing their biggest figures in business and politics to be carried out by Russia or even Israel right in their back yard? Don't be silly.
    So Clinton, Obama and Biden would be behind it and this would be Trump's argument I would have thought. But not the Bush family?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,315
    MattW said:

    dr_spyn said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    I remain perplexed by the implied unwillingness of the caring, empathetic female doctors in the ED to share their changing facilities with a 6ft 2 man who thinks he is a women, yet say nothing to managers who are throwing the book at a nurse who said no.

    I noticed that the Dundee Courier has noticed that NHS Fife have issued a statement about the Information Connoisseur's response.

    NHS Fife's production of The Operating Theatre of The Absurd goes on for another run next week.

    The Information Connoisseur. I absolutely love it.
    A mistype, my excuse is that I had cataract operation, and am waiting for the new glasses to be made up, and the Vanilla update hasn't helped.
    Wishing you all the best with it.

    My mum had both eyes done by the same Doctor - the first one in the excellent local NHS hospital, and the other one in the local private hospital to get it done quickly.
    Thanks, the operation has been successful, just waiting for new lens to be made up.
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