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The matter of Britain’s franchise – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,696
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s the Bhutanese silk in question. Perhaps seeing it will offer ideas


    lol, the cheeky book.
    reminds us of his ‘young Hitler’ screensaver in an earlier post.

    Equally unsurprising is the apparent paucity of books, with the empty shelves
    Ah, baited again, you're so easy

    There is actually a political object in that photo, a deeply political object. I wonder if anyone can spot it

    The answer is - I promise - genuinely hilarious and weird
    I am serious. There is a remarkable political object in this photo. It's right there

    And no, it's not the Enoch book designed to wind up zoophile dimwits like @IanB2

    Look again! If you can find it and name it I will buy you a bottle of Purcari Negru, next time we meet in Moldova
    Because we ordinary folk all have an Enoch Powell book hanging about to wind people up in a photo.
    It will amaze you, because you;re not very clever, but I also have

    1. A copy of the Communist Manifesto

    2. A (rather admiring) biography of Che Guevara

    3. A copy of Ten Days That Shook The World

    4. The Anarchist's Cookbook

    And so on, and so on. I am a politics geek that studied philosophy that now writes about politics. I know. Amazing. I imagine you are the same with widget surveying
    Possession of item four is technically illegal, people have been prosecuted under the Terrorism Act for having a copy. I would destroy it
    It’s also shit. To the point where some wondered if it was a plant by the FBI to get would be anarchists to kill themselves.

    Anyone who has done old style chemistry laughs at it.

    {thinks of the time I watched someone swabbing up a spill of sulphuric and nitric acid with cotton wool and a pair of tongs….}
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,961

    Foxy said:

    I don't think we deserved that!

    Both sides took terrible penalties.
    How can you win a shootout after missing 4 times!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,696

    I had no idea novelty tea towels were still a thing.

    We have one with our kids on it.

    A gimmick the school can make money on selling, which parents happily buy, why would it not be a thing?
    Got a nice one from Wheatley Mill in Oxford.

    It’s worth a visit on an open day. A restored windmill in a suburban garden. Just because.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited July 17
    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    First result of the night is a Green hold in Sefton Park, Liverpool
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,714

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,852

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s the Bhutanese silk in question. Perhaps seeing it will offer ideas


    lol, the cheeky book.
    reminds us of his ‘young Hitler’ screensaver in an earlier post.

    Equally unsurprising is the apparent paucity of books, with the empty shelves
    Ah, baited again, you're so easy

    There is actually a political object in that photo, a deeply political object. I wonder if anyone can spot it

    The answer is - I promise - genuinely hilarious and weird
    I am serious. There is a remarkable political object in this photo. It's right there

    And no, it's not the Enoch book designed to wind up zoophile dimwits like @IanB2

    Look again! If you can find it and name it I will buy you a bottle of Purcari Negru, next time we meet in Moldova
    Because we ordinary folk all have an Enoch Powell book hanging about to wind people up in a photo.
    It will amaze you, because you;re not very clever, but I also have

    1. A copy of the Communist Manifesto

    2. A (rather admiring) biography of Che Guevara

    3. A copy of Ten Days That Shook The World

    4. The Anarchist's Cookbook

    And so on, and so on. I am a politics geek that studied philosophy that now writes about politics. I know. Amazing. I imagine you are the same with widget surveying
    Possession of item four is technically illegal, people have been prosecuted under the Terrorism Act for having a copy. I would destroy it
    It’s also shit. To the point where some wondered if it was a plant by the FBI to get would be anarchists to kill themselves.

    Anyone who has done old style chemistry laughs at it.

    {thinks of the time I watched someone swabbing up a spill of sulphuric and nitric acid with cotton wool and a pair of tongs….}
    "I am a politics geek that studied philosophy that now writes about politics."

    The last words that were heard from our correspondent before he disappeared into Alligator Alcatraz.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    But that would require admitting that you were attending the Coldplay concert yourself....
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 798

    Donald Trump set to open US retirement market to crypto investments

    President preparing executive order to allow 401k plans to tap broad pool of alternative assets


    Donald Trump is preparing to open the $9tn US retirement market to cryptocurrency investments, gold, and private equity in a move that would spur a radical shift in the way Americans’ savings are managed.

    Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as this week that would open up 401k plans to alternative investments beyond traditional stocks and bonds, according to three people who have been briefed on the president’s plans.

    These investments would run a broad spectrum of asset classes, from digital assets to metals and funds focused on corporate takeovers, private loans and infrastructure deals.

    The executive order would instruct Washington regulatory agencies to investigate the remaining hurdles needed to allow for such alternative investments to be included in professionally managed funds used by 401k savers, these people said.

    “President Trump is committed to restoring prosperity for everyday Americans and safeguarding their economic future. No decisions should be deemed official, however, unless they come from President Trump himself,” the White House said in a statement to the Financial Times.

    In the US, 401k plans are among the most popular ways working Americans save for retirement, allowing them to invest a portion of their salaries in publicly traded securities tax-free. But virtually all such investments are housed in public stock and bond mutual funds.

    The executive order would accelerate Trump’s push to bring crypto investments to the mainstream, after his administration has dropped prominent enforcement actions against large digital asset-trading groups.


    https://www.ft.com/content/07906211-5ab8-4917-bcad-5397c0bc3170

    Are they sure he didn't just say he'd be able to retire on the money he's made from rugpulls
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,282
    Monkeys said:

    Donald Trump set to open US retirement market to crypto investments

    President preparing executive order to allow 401k plans to tap broad pool of alternative assets


    Donald Trump is preparing to open the $9tn US retirement market to cryptocurrency investments, gold, and private equity in a move that would spur a radical shift in the way Americans’ savings are managed.

    Trump is expected to sign an executive order as soon as this week that would open up 401k plans to alternative investments beyond traditional stocks and bonds, according to three people who have been briefed on the president’s plans.

    These investments would run a broad spectrum of asset classes, from digital assets to metals and funds focused on corporate takeovers, private loans and infrastructure deals.

    The executive order would instruct Washington regulatory agencies to investigate the remaining hurdles needed to allow for such alternative investments to be included in professionally managed funds used by 401k savers, these people said.

    “President Trump is committed to restoring prosperity for everyday Americans and safeguarding their economic future. No decisions should be deemed official, however, unless they come from President Trump himself,” the White House said in a statement to the Financial Times.

    In the US, 401k plans are among the most popular ways working Americans save for retirement, allowing them to invest a portion of their salaries in publicly traded securities tax-free. But virtually all such investments are housed in public stock and bond mutual funds.

    The executive order would accelerate Trump’s push to bring crypto investments to the mainstream, after his administration has dropped prominent enforcement actions against large digital asset-trading groups.


    https://www.ft.com/content/07906211-5ab8-4917-bcad-5397c0bc3170

    Are they sure he didn't just say he'd be able to retire on the money he's made from rugpulls
    It's not a rug!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,009
    Epping is a grim portent
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited July 17
    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Surprisingly high vote for the Tories in Liverpool.

    "Liverpool. Sefton Park

    Green 468
    Lab 211
    LD 193
    RefUK 54
    Con 14

    Green hold"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19413/local-council-elections-17th-july?page=4
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,463
    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    None of the news channels are covering it. Why?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,009

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,411
    IanB2: Does your dog have a favorite place to visit? (Dogs may have different preferences than we do. When I was growing up on a tributary of the Columbia river, our dog loved to roll in the dead salmon we encountered from time to time.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Market Harborough, Logan

    Con 410
    LD 355
    Grn 290
    Ref 190
    Lab 44
    Ind 10
    Communist 9

    Con gain from LD
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,463
    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    What do u mean by that?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,521
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s the Bhutanese silk in question. Perhaps seeing it will offer ideas


    lol, the cheeky book.
    product placement
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,683
    Andy_JS said:

    Market Harborough, Logan

    Con 410
    LD 355
    Grn 290
    Ref 190
    Lab 44
    Ind 10
    Communist 9

    Con gain from LD

    Scores from last time?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,852

    Lee Anderson MP

    @LeeAndersonMP_
    My new jacket.

    Beautiful 🇬🇧🇬🇧

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1945884508261158949



    derek guy
    @dieworkwear
    ·
    2h
    I believe this jacket is from Dobell, a company that produces their tailoring in Turkey.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,463
    Might do a MSc in Bioinformatics. Don't know. Let's see.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Market Harborough, Logan

    Con 410
    LD 355
    Grn 290
    Ref 190
    Lab 44
    Ind 10
    Communist 9

    Con gain from LD

    Scores from last time?
    "2023: LD 804, 706; Con 467, 343; Lab 213, 172; Grn 132, 111; Ind 95
    Sept 22by: LD 582; Con 382; Lab 250; Ind 60
    2019: LD 774, 635; Con 587; Grn 389; Ind 242; Lab 198"

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19413/local-council-elections-17th-july
  • xyzxyzxyzxyzxyzxyz Posts: 118
    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    The police gave the Stand up to racism demonstrators a lift in their vans from Epping tube station. Source multiple X accounts.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,282
    https://x.com/kafkaswife/status/1945972924436885652

    We shouldn’t forget the cover-up of the Afghan resettlement scheme. The lives of British people have been placed at risk - and yet, many in the previous and current government can’t even bring themselves to apologise, let alone pledge to reverse the granting of refugee status
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    edited July 17
    Plaid hold in Rhonnda

    Tory hold in Prestatyn

    Reform say theyve won both Dartford seats, not seen a rexult though so unconfirmed
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,009
    edited July 17
    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    What do u mean by that?
    It's the best analogy I can think of for the Afghan Scandal

    It's like a bank run. Governments, like banks, run largely on trust. If that vanishes, then banks are in deep shit because they do not have the cash on hand to please all savers. Likewise, if a government runs out of trust - if we all believe they are lying to us, via superinjunctions and malignant law/policing - they do not have the power to repress the entire citizenry

    We are nowhere near that crisis yet. As of now the problem is local, strange, disturbing - but local. Like Northern Rock

    Bank runs usually go two ways. They can fizzle out but cause bad reputational damage to a few institutions - LIBOR? BCCI? - or they turn into enormous crises, chain reactions of mistrust piled on mistrust which pose grave systemic risks to the entire Establishment - the Great Depression

    Some pundits are comparing the Afghan scandal to Watergate. That's daft, they are not at all alike. Think more of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but - potentially - applied specifically to British politics
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,714
    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    You think Robert Peston caused the Afghanis to come to the UK?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,665
    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    I hate myself for knowing this, but the woman to their left pissing herself laughing is also a senior manager at Astronomer.

    If I were every to have the time, energy and inclination for an affair, I would absolutely not be spending it at a Coldplay concert.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,444
    Leon said:

    Here’s the Bhutanese silk in question. Perhaps seeing it will offer ideas


    Definitely use it to make cushions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited July 17
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    I hate myself for knowing this, but the woman to their left pissing herself laughing is also a senior manager at Astronomer.

    If I were every to have the time, energy and inclination for an affair, I would absolutely not be spending it at a Coldplay concert.
    I am pretty sure Mrs U would leave me if I suggested a date night to see Coldplay.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited July 17
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    You think Robert Peston caused the Afghanis to come to the UK?
    The person responsible for putting all the names in an Excel spreadsheet is definitely cut from the same cloth of incompetence. Does he have a brother?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    Confirmed now that Reform gain both Dartford seats from the Tories
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 55,696

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    You think Robert Peston caused the Afghanis to come to the UK?
    The person responsible for putting all the names in an Excel spreadsheet is definitely cut from the same cloth of incompetence. Does he have a brother?
    I could easily see Pesto telling a security expert “A password protected Excel file is safe”
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,088
    xyzxyzxyz said:



    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    The police gave the Stand up to racism demonstrators a lift in their vans from Epping tube station. Source multiple X accounts.

    Is that your own account?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    "LocalCouncils.co.uk
    @councilsUK

    Reported that in both @dartfordbc byelections, Reform UK has gained the seat from the Conservatives. Stephen Ridley wins Maypole and Leyton Cross ward, while James Buchan takes Stone House ward"

    https://x.com/councilsUK/status/1945977292359880995
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    edited July 17
    Tories took Prestatyn on 21.7% from an indy on 21% and Ref on high teens
    They were defending from second in a multi member ward, the first place green last time had a big personal vote so the Tories held by pretty much standimg still whilst greens collapsed
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,088
    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    I remember listening to the World Service back around the time of Merkels 'come on in' idea. They were recording around the Afghan border. Local old guy almost spitting tacks along the lines of "Why are you letting that guy through?! He is a child molester!! And that guy! He is a ....". "Oh - that guy - lovely! Family man! Loves his wife - great! Very good carpenter!".

    I felt at the time he should have been employed as the arbiter.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,411
    Congratulations to these scientists:
    A pioneering IVF technique combining DNA from three people to protect a baby from a rare genetic disease has been used in Britain, leading to a healthy cohort of eight babies with no sign of serious disease, scientists said Wednesday.

    Four girls and four boys, including one set of twins, were born healthy after scientists used the treatment to prevent mothers with mutations in their mitochondrial DNA from transmitting the condition to their children, scientists at Newcastle University in northern England said in a statement Wednesday.
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2025/07/17/babies-dna-study-mitochondrial-disease-uk/

    Statement: https://www.ncl.ac.uk/press/articles/latest/2025/07/mitochondrialdonationtreatment
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,088

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    You think Robert Peston caused the Afghanis to come to the UK?
    The person responsible for putting all the names in an Excel spreadsheet is definitely cut from the same cloth of incompetence. Does he have a brother?
    I could easily see Pesto telling a security expert “A password protected Excel file is safe”
    There's no way they will find the 'hidden' Excel tab now that I have a password on it!!!

  • eekeek Posts: 30,704
    fitalass said:

    Leon said:

    Here’s the Bhutanese silk in question. Perhaps seeing it will offer ideas


    Definitely use it to make cushions.
    As @Cyclefree (on X) pointed out elsewhere that would require cutting it up. So either use it as a throw on the sofa or follow her advice and get someone to make it into a quilt cover..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,852
    Danny Kruger
    @danny__kruger

    I gave a speech today in an empty chamber.

    https://x.com/danny__kruger/status/1945963482920169677
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Denbighshire, Prestatyn Central

    Con 230
    Ind 223
    Ref UK 195
    PC 152
    Green 144
    Lab 95
    LD 19

    Con 21.74%
    Ind 21.08%
    Ref 18.43%
    PC 14.37%
    Grn 13.61%
    Lab 8.98%
    LD 1.80%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,852
    Wall Street Journal has breaking on Epstein and Trump.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Rhondda, Cynon Taf / Pontypridd Town

    PC 540
    RefUK 253
    Lab 203
    Con 27
    Green 23

    PC hold

    PC 51.63%
    Ref 24.19%
    Lab 19.41%
    Con 2.58%
    Grn 2.20%
  • TresTres Posts: 2,924
    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    None of the news channels are covering it. Why?
    its not news its olds
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,282
    Leon said:

    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    What do u mean by that?
    It's the best analogy I can think of for the Afghan Scandal

    It's like a bank run. Governments, like banks, run largely on trust. If that vanishes, then banks are in deep shit because they do not have the cash on hand to please all savers. Likewise, if a government runs out of trust - if we all believe they are lying to us, via superinjunctions and malignant law/policing - they do not have the power to repress the entire citizenry

    We are nowhere near that crisis yet. As of now the problem is local, strange, disturbing - but local. Like Northern Rock

    Bank runs usually go two ways. They can fizzle out but cause bad reputational damage to a few institutions - LIBOR? BCCI? - or they turn into enormous crises, chain reactions of mistrust piled on mistrust which pose grave systemic risks to the entire Establishment - the Great Depression

    Some pundits are comparing the Afghan scandal to Watergate. That's daft, they are not at all alike. Think more of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but - potentially - applied specifically to British politics
    If the subject that can't be discussed is Britain's Chernobyl, maybe we should be looking for an analogy from the period when the legitimacy of the Eastern Bloc regimes collapsed instead.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    If the Taliban are bad guys, why is that our fault? We tried our best to stop them being in control of the country but it wasn't possible.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,292
    "Dartford. 2 x RefUK gain from Con

    Stone House

    RefUK 475
    Lab 299
    Con 190
    Green 87

    Maypole and Leyton Cross

    RefUK 303
    Con 158
    Lab 71
    Green 32"
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,444
    carnforth said:

    I had no idea novelty tea towels were still a thing.

    School tea towels with 30 self portraits, one drawn by each child in the class, were a big thing when I were a lad.

    Sadly all novetly tea towel are cotton. When, of course, the only acceptable material is Irish or Belgian linen.
    When our boys all went to our small village primary school they and all their classmates had to draw a self potrait and sign it, I still have that tea towel with the contributions from all three of them never used.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    edited July 17
    Basildon St Martins is a Reform gain from Labour

    St Martin's (Basildon) council by-election result:

    REF: 44.6% (+44.6)
    LAB: 35.1% (-8.4)
    CON: 13.5% (-9.9)
    GRN: 3.5% (-10.6)
    LDEM: 1.6% (-9.0)
    TUSC: 1.1% (-7.3)

    +/- 2024
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,304
    Leon said:

    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    What do u mean by that?
    It's the best analogy I can think of for the Afghan Scandal

    It's like a bank run. Governments, like banks, run largely on trust. If that vanishes, then banks are in deep shit because they do not have the cash on hand to please all savers. Likewise, if a government runs out of trust - if we all believe they are lying to us, via superinjunctions and malignant law/policing - they do not have the power to repress the entire citizenry

    We are nowhere near that crisis yet. As of now the problem is local, strange, disturbing - but local. Like Northern Rock

    Bank runs usually go two ways. They can fizzle out but cause bad reputational damage to a few institutions - LIBOR? BCCI? - or they turn into enormous crises, chain reactions of mistrust piled on mistrust which pose grave systemic risks to the entire Establishment - the Great Depression

    Some pundits are comparing the Afghan scandal to Watergate. That's daft, they are not at all alike. Think more of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, but - potentially - applied specifically to British politics
    Its not the same thing at all.

    A bank run is like an avalanche, once it starts it either peters out or snowballs into a bigger crisis. If it reaches the avalanche stage, then people respond to the crisis by going to withdraw their cash, because if they don't they stand to lose out so it becomes the rational thing to do . . . which then makes the bank run getting worse a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    The fact that the mistrust and withdrawals are happening simultaneously, and the bank can't handle that, is why a bank run is so serious.

    Government doesn't work that way. If people don't trust the buggers in charge there's little imminent pressure to act in the same way as there is with a bank run. It leads to simmering resentment but no immediate sharp crisis.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,463
    Tres said:

    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    None of the news channels are covering it. Why?
    its not news its olds
    This was 1 hour ago:
    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/1945962186888868317

    It's not old news.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,304
    nunu2 said:

    Tres said:

    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    None of the news channels are covering it. Why?
    its not news its olds
    This was 1 hour ago:
    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/1945962186888868317

    It's not old news.
    Epping being grim is old news.

    In the last few years Epping has brought us invasions of Scotland, Spain and more.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,665
    nunu2 said:

    Tres said:

    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    None of the news channels are covering it. Why?
    its not news its olds
    This was 1 hour ago:
    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/1945962186888868317

    It's not old news.
    That is a poor choice of shoes for a riot. He wants some Doc Martens.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    edited July 17
    Reform again fail to defend a seat they won in May, Con gain in Staffordshire, reform pushed to third

    Barron, Ray (Ref) 938
    Elston-Thompson, Leah (Lab) 140
    Pert, Jeremy (Con) 1689 ELECTED
    Spencer, Scott (Green) 1037

    Turnout 34.8%
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,271

    Wall Street Journal has breaking on Epstein and Trump.

    Hmm - it's not much, but given Trump is so furiously denying it's real...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    And the final Port Talbot seat is a Labour hold
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    edited July 17
    Reform will be disappointed with the three welsh results - two third places and a distant second in Pontypridd. However they were rampant in Kent and Essex.

    Neath Port Talbot - Baglan

    Lab 708
    Ind 532
    RefUK 447
    PC 149
    Con 19
    Green 18
    LD 13

    Lab hold
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,793
    Staffs percentages etc
    Eccleshall & Gnosall (Staffordshire) Council By-Election Result:

    🌳 CON: 44.4% (+10.1)
    🌍 GRN: 27.3% (+8.2)
    ➡️ RFM: 24.7% (-10.3)
    🌹 LAB: 3.7% (-3.9)

    No LDM (-4.1) as previous.

    Conservative GAIN from Reform.
    Changes w/ 2025.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,444

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    I hate myself for knowing this, but the woman to their left pissing herself laughing is also a senior manager at Astronomer.

    If I were every to have the time, energy and inclination for an affair, I would absolutely not be spending it at a Coldplay concert.
    I am pretty sure Mrs U would leave me if I suggested a date night to see Coldplay.
    And my hubby Fitaloon would be on the same page as Mrs U if I were to ever suggest a date night to see Coldplay.
  • vikvik Posts: 550
    Eabhal said:

    Wall Street Journal has breaking on Epstein and Trump.

    Hmm - it's not much, but given Trump is so furiously denying it's real...
    Yeah, his furious denials make me think there's a lot more to the story than we know so far.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,444
    vik said:

    Eabhal said:

    Wall Street Journal has breaking on Epstein and Trump.

    Hmm - it's not much, but given Trump is so furiously denying it's real...
    Yeah, his furious denials make me think there's a lot more to the story than we know so far.
    Trump really seems really rattled that this story is not going away and his adminstration is unable to shut it down.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited 2:10AM
    US President Donald Trump says he's ordered the US Justice Department to produce "all pertinent" grand jury testimony related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Attorney General Pam Bondi posted minutes later: "We are ready to move the court tomorrow to unseal the grand jury transcripts."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9w1014rlq9o
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Bournemouth 'first in UK' to trial parking fine rise

    The results would be used by the government to decide whether higher fines could be rolled out across the country.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89envdgvvqo

    I wonder what they will decide?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Britain’s largest carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover, has delayed the planned launches of its new electric Range Rover and electric Jaguar models to give it time for more testing and for demand to pick up, the Guardian can reveal.

    JLR has written to customers waiting for the Range Rover Electric to inform them that deliveries of the new version of the model will not start until next year, after initially aiming for late 2025.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/18/jaguar-land-rover-delays-launch-range-rover-electric
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,303
    As promised yesterday, and posted early as it’s another warm blue sky morning here in the north, with sunlight streaming through the window, yet there’s snow still on all the mountains. This is the spot where the Royal Navy landed the French Foreign Legion in 1940 - hailed by the info board as the inspirational first allied victory of the war - although of course the victory was short lived as the non-Norwegian troops were all pulled back to the UK once France had fallen. Narvik itself is across the fjord, on the right of the photo.

    The ensuing debate in the Commons is of course famous and politically notable for bringing about Chamberlain’s resignation.

    Today’s temperature max here is forecast at - depending on which site you go to - a staggering 25-27C.


  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,748
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    I hate myself for knowing this, but the woman to their left pissing herself laughing is also a senior manager at Astronomer.

    If I were every to have the time, energy and inclination for an affair, I would absolutely not be spending it at a Coldplay concert.
    Three people from the same company means they can expense the tickets as a team-bonding exercise.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    I hate myself for knowing this, but the woman to their left pissing herself laughing is also a senior manager at Astronomer.

    If I were every to have the time, energy and inclination for an affair, I would absolutely not be spending it at a Coldplay concert.
    Three people from the same company means they can expense the tickets as a team-bonding exercise.
    Maybe they are engaged in regular "team bonding" exercises.....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,748
    IanB2 said:

    As promised yesterday, and posted early as it’s another warm blue sky morning here in the north, with sunlight streaming through the window, yet there’s snow still on all the mountains. This is the spot where the Royal Navy landed the French Foreign Legion in 1940 - hailed by the info board as the inspirational first allied victory of the war - although of course the victory was short lived as the non-Norwegian troops were all pulled back to the UK once France had fallen. Narvik itself is across the fjord, on the right of the photo.

    The ensuing debate in the Commons is of course famous and politically notable for bringing about Chamberlain’s resignation.

    Today’s temperature max here is forecast at - depending on which site you go to - a staggering 25-27C.


    Politically notably ironic as it was the principal author of the Norway debacle who succeeded Chamberlain as Prime Minister.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,748
    nunu2 said:

    Tres said:

    nunu2 said:

    Leon said:

    Epping is a grim portent

    None of the news channels are covering it. Why?
    its not news its olds
    This was 1 hour ago:
    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/1945962186888868317

    It's not old news.
    Of course it is old news. If it were new news, say within the past half century, he'd have worn gloves so not to leave his dabs and DNA where the camera helpfully shows police where to swab.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,748

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    As few as one in 16 Afghans identified in a data breach had genuine claims for asylum, defence sources have said, raising fresh questions about how many bogus claimants might have slipped through the net.

    Last October, it emerged that a 16-year-old boy arrested on suspicion of sexual assault at military accommodation in Staffordshire had come to the UK under Arap. But there are now question marks over whether the boy might have come to the UK under the ARR, the existence of which the Government had not revealed at the time.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/17/vast-majority-afghans-kill-list-bogus-asylum-seekers-leak/

    Northern Rock. Bank run. Remember
    You think Robert Peston caused the Afghanis to come to the UK?
    The person responsible for putting all the names in an Excel spreadsheet is definitely cut from the same cloth of incompetence. Does he have a brother?
    Using an Excel spreadsheet for everything under the sun is SOP for most non-techies and about half of all techies. When people ask what happened to the dream of end-user computing, the answer is Excel.

    iirc even during the pandemic there were statistical anomalies where Covid ran up against Excel's data limits.

    The real underlying error is collating all the information into one spreadsheet in the first place. Note this is a counter-example for Dominic Cummings' demands for combining disparate data feeds at Number 10.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,748
    nunu2 said:

    Might do a MSc in Bioinformatics. Don't know. Let's see.

    Good idea. You will learn how to use data pipelines from companies like Astronomer, which you may have seen in music news.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,169

    Britain’s largest carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover, has delayed the planned launches of its new electric Range Rover and electric Jaguar models to give it time for more testing and for demand to pick up, the Guardian can reveal.

    JLR has written to customers waiting for the Range Rover Electric to inform them that deliveries of the new version of the model will not start until next year, after initially aiming for late 2025.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jul/18/jaguar-land-rover-delays-launch-range-rover-electric

    It is a bit sad to see the company commit suicide.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,169

    IanB2 said:

    As promised yesterday, and posted early as it’s another warm blue sky morning here in the north, with sunlight streaming through the window, yet there’s snow still on all the mountains. This is the spot where the Royal Navy landed the French Foreign Legion in 1940 - hailed by the info board as the inspirational first allied victory of the war - although of course the victory was short lived as the non-Norwegian troops were all pulled back to the UK once France had fallen. Narvik itself is across the fjord, on the right of the photo.

    The ensuing debate in the Commons is of course famous and politically notable for bringing about Chamberlain’s resignation.

    Today’s temperature max here is forecast at - depending on which site you go to - a staggering 25-27C.


    Politically notably ironic as it was the principal author of the Norway debacle who succeeded Chamberlain as Prime Minister.
    The only resemblance that Johnson had to Churchill...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,169

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If the couple had just acted normally, nobody would be any the wiser.

    Well, I don't think that's necessarily true. It would only take one friend of either of them to be at the concert and to have seen it.
    I hate myself for knowing this, but the woman to their left pissing herself laughing is also a senior manager at Astronomer.

    If I were every to have the time, energy and inclination for an affair, I would absolutely not be spending it at a Coldplay concert.
    Three people from the same company means they can expense the tickets as a team-bonding exercise.
    Wasn't it a company box at the concert, so not exactly a secret?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,141
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    As promised yesterday, and posted early as it’s another warm blue sky morning here in the north, with sunlight streaming through the window, yet there’s snow still on all the mountains. This is the spot where the Royal Navy landed the French Foreign Legion in 1940 - hailed by the info board as the inspirational first allied victory of the war - although of course the victory was short lived as the non-Norwegian troops were all pulled back to the UK once France had fallen. Narvik itself is across the fjord, on the right of the photo.

    The ensuing debate in the Commons is of course famous and politically notable for bringing about Chamberlain’s resignation.

    Today’s temperature max here is forecast at - depending on which site you go to - a staggering 25-27C.


    Politically notably ironic as it was the principal author of the Norway debacle who succeeded Chamberlain as Prime Minister.
    The only resemblance that Johnson had to Churchill...
    Didn't both run up huge government debt that takes generations to pay off?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,089

    Reform will be disappointed with the three welsh results - two third places and a distant second in Pontypridd. However they were rampant in Kent and Essex.

    Neath Port Talbot - Baglan

    Lab 708
    Ind 532
    RefUK 447
    PC 149
    Con 19
    Green 18
    LD 13

    Lab hold

    Not good for Reform at all.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,303

    IanB2 said:

    As promised yesterday, and posted early as it’s another warm blue sky morning here in the north, with sunlight streaming through the window, yet there’s snow still on all the mountains. This is the spot where the Royal Navy landed the French Foreign Legion in 1940 - hailed by the info board as the inspirational first allied victory of the war - although of course the victory was short lived as the non-Norwegian troops were all pulled back to the UK once France had fallen. Narvik itself is across the fjord, on the right of the photo.

    The ensuing debate in the Commons is of course famous and politically notable for bringing about Chamberlain’s resignation.

    Today’s temperature max here is forecast at - depending on which site you go to - a staggering 25-27C.


    Politically notably ironic as it was the principal author of the Norway debacle who succeeded Chamberlain as Prime Minister.
    Although the thrust of the criticism that drew in the Tory rebels and led to the PM’s downfall was of inactivity and passivity; a lack of vigour in pursuing the war not just in Norway but since 1939. And surely the failure of government foreign policy before the war played a significant part?
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