Don't laugh but I'm betting on Jeremy Corbyn or Zarah Sultana becoming PM before 2030

System · July 7

Don't laugh but I'm betting on Jeremy Corbyn or Zarah Sultana becoming PM before 2030 – politicalbetting.com

A golden rule of betting is that you shouldn’t get involved in markets where the bookies do not offer both sides of the bet and I think these markets from Ladbrokes fit that criteria.

Read the full story here

dixiedean · July 7

First like Jezza.

Taz · July 7

Jezza is only ever going to be Zarah’s deputy. Zarah’s the daddy now. She has first mover advantage. She’s neutralised the old duffer.

Perhaps metaphorically kneecapped him. That’s a reference to a shit band rather than anything else

OldKingCole · July 7

Will Jezza be in Parliament after the next GE? After all, he'll be 80 in 2029.

HYUFD · July 7

PM unlikely, holding the balance of power in a hung parliament and forcing a minority Labour government to kowtow to their demands though is quite possible

Northern_Al · July 7

Jezza has zilch chance now of becoming PM - too old. Sultana would have had a chance if she'd stayed in Labour - she's got something about her, and could have been a UK AOC type figure. But probably not now.

occasionalranter · July 7

Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.

Taz · July 7

Zarah’s statespersonlike comments on 7/7

https://x.com/zarahsultana/status/1942202403446538425?s=61

bondegezou · July 7

The US has recorded its highest annual number of measles cases for 33 years. Go RFK Jnr! https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/07/07/measles-cases-hit-record/

Nigelb · July 7

Not even a trading bet.

Nigelb · July 7

Meantime, the flame war continues.
Advantage Musk...

What’s the time? Oh look, it’s no-one-has-been-arrested-o’clock again …
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942132189229162960

tlg86 · July 7

Taz said:
Zarah’s statespersonlike comments on 7/7

https://x.com/zarahsultana/status/1942202403446538425?s=61

Ugh, she's nearly seven years younger than me.

Big_G_NorthWales · July 7

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.

His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults

OldKingCole · July 7

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults

Thanks, but don't worry about me in this context. I find him amusing, in a strange sort of way.

Taz · July 7

tlg86 said:

Taz said:
Zarah’s statespersonlike comments on 7/7

https://x.com/zarahsultana/status/1942202403446538425?s=61
Ugh, she's nearly seven years younger than me.

She’s got 28 years on me

wooliedyed · July 7

I suspect the 'Collective' just want Jezza to be the front man whilst they get up and running. Then he can be packed off to the allotment and the dried fruit takes over

Big_G_NorthWales · July 7

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Thanks, but don't worry about me in this context. I find him amusing, in a strange sort of way.

As a so called fellow conservative I do not agree with his far right tendency nor his inability to accept he is wrong

MarqueeMark · July 7

Sorry, but I'm laughing.

There's dysfunctional. There's completely fucked. But there isn't a level beyond that allows either to be PM.

wooliedyed · July 7

MarqueeMark said:
Sorry, but I'm laughing.

There's dyfunctional. There's completely fucked. But there isn't a level beyond that allows either to be PM.

The Collective and the Greens are fighting to share at best 10-12%, if they cook up a deal they might take a few city seats. They'll be, at best, a nuisance.
The 'Gaza vote' will likely have subsided by 2029 somewhat too.
I can see them scalping Wes though

TimS · July 7

wooliedyed said:
I suspect the 'Collective' just want Jezza to be the front man whilst they get up and running. Then he can be packed off to the allotment and the dried fruit takes over

That might be the currant thinking but would he set a date? What raisin would he have to step down. I doubt he cares a fig for the collective opinion.

wooliedyed · July 7

TimS said:

wooliedyed said:
I suspect the 'Collective' just want Jezza to be the front man whilst they get up and running. Then he can be packed off to the allotment and the dried fruit takes over
That might be the currant thinking but would he set a date? What raisin would he have to step down. I doubt he cares a fig for the collective opinion.

Ribaldry at its finest. Chapeau

HYUFD · July 7

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults

Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there

HYUFD · July 7

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.

On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA

Sunil_Prasannan · July 7

dixiedean said:
First like Jezza.

Second in 2017 and 2019, surely!

Sunil_Prasannan · July 7

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there

Everything Counts in large amounts!

Sunil_Prasannan · July 7

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA

Jesus was a Lefty.

Big_G_NorthWales · July 7

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there

I really do not know why you dont join them

Nigelb · July 7

Trump's anti-BRICS policy notably doesn't apply to Russia.
https://x.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/1942214679763325200

Big_G_NorthWales · July 7

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA

I followed it from the beginning and again you were wrong in your accusations and owe @kjh an apology

Nigelb · July 7

Windows 78.0

Former first deputy head of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), Colonel General Viktor Strigunov, has been arrested and placed in Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo detention center.

Preliminary arrest relates to alleged embezzlement during the construction of a military training facility near Novosibirsk.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1942226118574031260

eek · July 7

Nigelb said:
Trump's anti-BRICS policy notably doesn't apply to Russia.
https://x.com/BohuslavskaKate/status/1942214679763325200

Do as I say not as I do has been part of Trump’s playbook since 2016 (if not far earlier).

Cicero · July 7

Don't laugh? Well, mental illness isn't funny and you would have to be a literal lunatic to believe in either as PM.

Nigelb · July 7

We're only going after the worst of the worst..

NEW: the Trump admin has moved to terminate TPS for Honduras and Nicaragua, covering over 50,000 people

Both of these designations date back to 1999, meaning Trump wants to strip legal status from people who have had a background check every 18 months for the last 26 years.
https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1942209099321524658

TheScreamingEagles · July 7

tlg86 said:

Taz said:
Zarah’s statespersonlike comments on 7/7

https://x.com/zarahsultana/status/1942202403446538425?s=61
Ugh, she's nearly seven years younger than me.

I tell you what the real kicker is.

A PM younger than you, thanks Rishi.

Mexicanpete · July 7

One for @ydoethur.

Dame Amanda Spielman on with Tom Swarbrick on LBC.

bondegezou · July 7

Nigelb said:
Meantime, the flame war continues.
Advantage Musk...

What’s the time? Oh look, it’s no-one-has-been-arrested-o’clock again …
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942132189229162960

Again, Mr Musk, 2 people were arrested! Epstein and Maxwell. Very probably, the two most important people to arrest.

ydoethur · July 7

Mexicanpete said:
One for @ydoethur.

Dame Amanda Spielman on with Tom Swarbrick on LBC.

Sounds like the world’s worst porno, but at least unlike in her previous role she’s not screwing England’s children.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 7

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA

The trouble is you have all spent pages over the past few days essentially quibbling over the semantics around tax. Is it tax planning, tax avoidance, tax dodging, tax minimisation, who flipping cares?

Cookie · July 7

Cicero said:
Don't laugh? Well, mental illness isn't funny and you would have to be a literal lunatic to believe in either as PM.

You don't have to. All you have to believe is that there is a reasonably likely future where such an outcome looks more likely than 100/1 against. I don't think this is madness, for the reasons TSE sets out.

HYUFD · July 7

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I followed it from the beginning and again you were wrong in your accusations and owe @kjh an apology

No I do not, he started it by whinging about still getting his WFA, while at the same time notably listing all the schemes he used to draw cash from his capital etc so he kept his taxable income below the taxable income threshold where it was withdrawn

HYUFD · July 7

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
Jesus was a Lefty.

No he believed in the 'Big Society' and charity rather than just the state and was relatively socially conservative

Malmesbury · July 7

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
The trouble is you have all spent pages over the past few days essentially quibbling over the semantics around tax. Is it tax planning, tax avoidance, tax dodging, tax minimisation, who flipping cares?

It’s Richard Murphy level stupid to claim that pensions, ISA, Premium Bonds and spending your capital are tax dodging.

Hell, the government made it mandatory (in effect) for IFAs to recommend pensions and ISAs!

boulay · July 7

bondegezou said:

Nigelb said:
Meantime, the flame war continues.
Advantage Musk...

What’s the time? Oh look, it’s no-one-has-been-arrested-o’clock again …
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942132189229162960
Again, Mr Musk, 2 people were arrested! Epstein and Maxwell. Very probably, the two most important people to arrest.

You might not like Musk but on this story he is on the side of the Angels so whilst pedantically you are correct, he has a very valid criticism that the list that was on Pam Bondi’s desk a few months ago miraculously never actually existed apparently and no further arrests will be made which quite clearly is something he is right to get shouty about.

Nigelb · July 7

Some sort of full on purge seems to be underway.

Another Russian Transport Ministry Official Found Dead at Moscow Headquarters

42-year-old Andrei Korneichuk, deputy head of the Department for Regulatory Support and Land Relations at Russia’s Ministry of Transport, died during a working meeting today at his workplace in the ministry’s headquarters on Stara Basmannaya Street in Moscow.

According to Russian media, Korneichuk suddenly experienced heart problems, stood up from his desk, and collapsed.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1942231804825702752

OldKingCole · July 7

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there

There isn't a 'Basildon' seat as there was until 1997, Now the North of the town is combined with the ancient Essex town of Billericay, nowadays part of Basildon Council's area. Something, incidentally, the burghers of Billericay were aghast about when it happened!
It has a Conservative MP, Richard Holden, and Reform were third.

The South half of the town is combined for parliamentary purposes with the East of Thurrock and that area has, I grant you, a Reform MP.

rottenborough · July 7

Nigelb said:
We're only going after the worst of the worst..

NEW: the Trump admin has moved to terminate TPS for Honduras and Nicaragua, covering over 50,000 people

Both of these designations date back to 1999, meaning Trump wants to strip legal status from people who have had a background check every 18 months for the last 26 years.
https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1942209099321524658

I think it is more Stephen Miller rather than Trump. Doubt Trump knows any of the details.

There's a long piece in today's NYTimes on Miller. A fanatic to put it mildly.

TimS · July 7

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
The trouble is you have all spent pages over the past few days essentially quibbling over the semantics around tax. Is it tax planning, tax avoidance, tax dodging, tax minimisation, who flipping cares?
It’s Richard Murphy level stupid to claim that pensions, ISA, Premium Bonds and spending your capital are tax dodging.

Hell, the government made it mandatory (in effect) for IFAs to recommend pensions and ISAs!

Spending your capital is the funniest one.

LostPassword · July 7

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA

What do you mean by "cash in hand from his capital"?

ydoethur · July 7

@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).

wooliedyed · July 7

One way to view potential for the next GE is to look at what votes there are to spread about.

If we give the LDs their 13% from last time, the SNP and Plaid 4% between them and 3% for the others - Habib, indies, Lowe, Kippers, Galloway etc, that eats 20%
ConRef are polling about 48% splitting around 29 19 RefCon atm.
That leaves 32% for Labour, Greens and 'the Collective'
Unless the LD vote gets cannibalised its difficult to find a path to a left wing administration and very easy to navigate a total meltdown

Nigelb · July 7

It's still Biden's economy.

Fox News: The economy shrank. First time in three years. People are pointing to the tariff policy.

J.D. Vance: This is Joe Biden’s economy.
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1941929574624854319

Big_G_NorthWales · July 7

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I followed it from the beginning and again you were wrong in your accusations and owe @kjh an apology
No I do not, he started it by whinging about still getting his WFA, while at the same time notably listing all the schemes he used to draw cash from his capital etc so he kept his taxable income below the taxable income threshold where it was withdrawn

And all legal and within the law used daily by many investors

You should accept you are out of order and apologise

HYUFD · July 7

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
The trouble is you have all spent pages over the past few days essentially quibbling over the semantics around tax. Is it tax planning, tax avoidance, tax dodging, tax minimisation, who flipping cares?

Those who whinge about the government not removing their WFA like kjh, without having the self awareness to realise why they are under the taxable income threshold where their WFA would be withdrawn is all the tax minimisation schemes they use

Battlebus · July 7

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I followed it from the beginning and again you were wrong in your accusations and owe @kjh an apology
No I do not, he started it by whinging about still getting his WFA, while at the same time notably listing all the schemes he used to draw cash from his capital etc so he kept his taxable income below the taxable income threshold where it was withdrawn

But that's what pensions do. You drip feed your capital and the faster you access it, the quicker it dissipates. Eventually you end up on Pension Credit IF you don't manage the depletion properly.

Best go and see a pensions advisor if you intend to retire.

turbotubbs · July 7

Cookie said:

Cicero said:
Don't laugh? Well, mental illness isn't funny and you would have to be a literal lunatic to believe in either as PM.
You don't have to. All you have to believe is that there is a reasonably likely future where such an outcome looks more likely than 100/1 against. I don't think this is madness, for the reasons TSE sets out.

Quite. I have a small sum on Lib Dems most seats at the general election at 50/1. I don't believe I will win 50 quid for each of the pounds I have invested, but I do think there will come a point at which it narrows and then I cash in (or out, as it were).

Nigelb · July 7

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:
We're only going after the worst of the worst..

NEW: the Trump admin has moved to terminate TPS for Honduras and Nicaragua, covering over 50,000 people

Both of these designations date back to 1999, meaning Trump wants to strip legal status from people who have had a background check every 18 months for the last 26 years.
https://x.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1942209099321524658
I think it is more Stephen Miller rather than Trump. Doubt Trump knows any of the details.

There's a long piece in today's NYTimes on Miller. A fanatic to put it mildly.

He is the closest thing that US politics has to a full on fascist in government.
But unless you're saying Trump is now completely senile, this is ultimately on the President.

LostPassword · July 7

Nigelb said:
Windows 78.0

Former first deputy head of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), Colonel General Viktor Strigunov, has been arrested and placed in Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo detention center.

Preliminary arrest relates to alleged embezzlement during the construction of a military training facility near Novosibirsk.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1942226118574031260

There's been quite a few deaths, sackings and arrests recently. Enough to qualify as a purge, or just random variation in the normal background rate of a mafia state?

HYUFD · July 7

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I followed it from the beginning and again you were wrong in your accusations and owe @kjh an apology
No I do not, he started it by whinging about still getting his WFA, while at the same time notably listing all the schemes he used to draw cash from his capital etc so he kept his taxable income below the taxable income threshold where it was withdrawn
And all legal and within the law used daily by many investors

You should accept you are out of order and apologise

Nope, he started it by whinging he kept his WFA, they may be legal but those tax minimising schemes are not compulsory and those who use them will often keep their WFA solely by the tax minimisation they result in

boulay · July 7

Nigelb said:
It's still Biden's economy.

Fox News: The economy shrank. First time in three years. People are pointing to the tariff policy.

J.D. Vance: This is Joe Biden’s economy.
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1941929574624854319

I’m sure we keep hearing from Labour that it’s still the Tories’ mess here and they’ve been in charge longer so I think the Republicans are still in the window for blaming the last lot.

ydoethur · July 7

Nigelb said:
It's still Biden's economy.

Fox News: The economy shrank. First time in three years. People are pointing to the tariff policy.

J.D. Vance: This is Joe Biden’s economy.
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1941929574624854319

With Trump we make allowances because he’s 79 years old and was never very smart.

Vance is only in his 40s and is supposed to be quite bright. What’s his excuse?

HYUFD · July 7

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there
There isn't a 'Basildon' seat as there was until 1997, Now the North of the town is combined with the ancient Essex town of Billericay, nowadays part of Basildon Council's area. Something, incidentally, the burghers of Billericay were aghast about when it happened!
It has a Conservative MP, Richard Holden, and Reform were third.

The South half of the town is combined for parliamentary purposes with the East of Thurrock and that area has, I grant you, a Reform MP.

As I said most of the old Basildon seat is now held by McMurdock and most of the old Billericay seat is held by Holden

FrancisUrquhart · July 7

Russia's transport minister has been found dead with a gunshot wound, hours after he was fired by President Vladimir Putin.

Various Russian media cited law enforcement sources as saying a pistol belonging to Starovoit had been found alongside his body in his Tesla, though other reports suggested he was found in a nearby bush.

wooliedyed · July 7

bondegezou said:

Nigelb said:
Meantime, the flame war continues.
Advantage Musk...

What’s the time? Oh look, it’s no-one-has-been-arrested-o’clock again …
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942132189229162960
Again, Mr Musk, 2 people were arrested! Epstein and Maxwell. Very probably, the two most important people to arrest.

Not really. Maxwell is doing bird for assisting Epstein in the established activities (not sure if saying it triggers the hammer). Their clients are the ones we want to see charged now. They weren't sending them to nobody.

Morris_Dancer · July 7

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:
It's still Biden's economy.

Fox News: The economy shrank. First time in three years. People are pointing to the tariff policy.

J.D. Vance: This is Joe Biden’s economy.
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1941929574624854319
With Trump we make allowances because he’s 79 years old and was never very smart.

Vance is only in his 40s and is supposed to be quite bright. What’s his excuse?

Like Julius Caesar, he'll sacrifice anything on the altar of ambition.

boulay · July 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Russia's transport minister has been found dead with a gunshot wound, hours after he was fired by President Vladimir Putin.

Various Russian media cited law enforcement sources as saying a pistol belonging to Starovoit had been found alongside his body in his Tesla, though other reports suggested he was found in a nearby bush.

I think we would all rather die in a nice bush than in a Tesla.

ydoethur · July 7

Morris_Dancer said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:
It's still Biden's economy.

Fox News: The economy shrank. First time in three years. People are pointing to the tariff policy.

J.D. Vance: This is Joe Biden’s economy.
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1941929574624854319
With Trump we make allowances because he’s 79 years old and was never very smart.

Vance is only in his 40s and is supposed to be quite bright. What’s his excuse?
Like Julius Caesar, he'll sacrifice anything on the altar of ambition.

Not so much the Ides of March as the idiots on the march.

IanB2 · July 7

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there
I really do not know why you dont join them

Reform - “the party for people for whom the Tories aren’t nasty enough”?

ydoethur · July 7

boulay said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
Russia's transport minister has been found dead with a gunshot wound, hours after he was fired by President Vladimir Putin.

Various Russian media cited law enforcement sources as saying a pistol belonging to Starovoit had been found alongside his body in his Tesla, though other reports suggested he was found in a nearby bush.

I think we would all rather die in a nice bush than in a Tesla.

The mere shame of driving a Swasticar while transport minister must have been intolerable.

IanB2 · July 7

Cookie said:

Cicero said:
Don't laugh? Well, mental illness isn't funny and you would have to be a literal lunatic to believe in either as PM.
You don't have to. All you have to believe is that there is a reasonably likely future where such an outcome looks more likely than 100/1 against. I don't think this is madness, for the reasons TSE sets out.

But how’s he going to take the other side of the bet, to cash in?

Chris · July 7

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
Jesus was a Lefty.
No he believed in the 'Big Society' and charity rather than just the state and was relatively socially conservative

He believed people should sell all that they own and give the money to the poor. I presume that when you did that you thought of some casuistical justification for holding on to the device you're using to post here.

But "socially conservative"? He actually enabled a dangerous criminal to escape the death penalty prescribed by Almighty God for the offence she had committed!

ydoethur · July 7

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:
Windows 78.0

Former first deputy head of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), Colonel General Viktor Strigunov, has been arrested and placed in Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo detention center.

Preliminary arrest relates to alleged embezzlement during the construction of a military training facility near Novosibirsk.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1942226118574031260
There's been quite a few deaths, sackings and arrests recently. Enough to qualify as a purge, or just random variation in the normal background rate of a mafia state?

Fine old Soviet joke:

‘Is it true the entire Ukrainian party secretariat committed suicide after Chernobyl?’

‘Yes. Well, all but the party secretary.’

‘Why did he not kill himself?’

‘He couldn’t be found.’

Nigelb · July 7

LostPassword said:

Nigelb said:
Windows 78.0

Former first deputy head of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya), Colonel General Viktor Strigunov, has been arrested and placed in Moscow’s high-security Lefortovo detention center.

Preliminary arrest relates to alleged embezzlement during the construction of a military training facility near Novosibirsk.
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1942226118574031260
There's been quite a few deaths, sackings and arrests recently. Enough to qualify as a purge, or just random variation in the normal background rate of a mafia state?

Smells like a purge.
They're not even taking the time to carry them up 10 storeys first.

OldKingCole · July 7

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there
There isn't a 'Basildon' seat as there was until 1997, Now the North of the town is combined with the ancient Essex town of Billericay, nowadays part of Basildon Council's area. Something, incidentally, the burghers of Billericay were aghast about when it happened!
It has a Conservative MP, Richard Holden, and Reform were third.

The South half of the town is combined for parliamentary purposes with the East of Thurrock and that area has, I grant you, a Reform MP.
As I said most of the old Basildon seat is now held by McMurdock and most of the old Billericay seat is held by Holden

I didn't realise Holden had defected to Reform!

The old Basildon seat was, more or less, divided across the middle. Some of the area in the South of the town isn't built on; there are a couple of country parks. And a tip!

ydoethur · July 7

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
Jesus was a Lefty.
No he believed in the 'Big Society' and charity rather than just the state and was relatively socially conservative
He believed people should sell all that they own and give the money to the poor. I presume that when you did that you thought of some casuistical justification for holding on to the device you're using to post here.

But "socially conservative"? He actually enabled a dangerous criminal to escape the death penalty prescribed by Almighty God for the offence she had committed!

Although preventing people from being stoned while encouraging them all to get very drunk instead suggests he had Tory views on drug policy.

stodge · July 7

Afternoon all

Perhaps in more mellow mode but we all know the Reform "hard right" schtick is going to flounder before too long. The next logical political development would be something along the lines of BSW in Germany - a kind of "Reform of the Left" for those who need the simplicity of labels.

A culturally conservative, nationalist, anti-immigrant, interventionist political movement ostensibly from the socialist side of the street wouldn't be unpopular after the ruin of the "hard right" and those with long memories will recall "the dockers" marching "for Enoch" in the 1960s. Such a movement would be strong in its support for institutions like the NHS and local councils though obviously its financial mismanagement would in time be as poor as Reform's.

Whether it can align with the pro-Muslim groups in parts of East London, Birmingham, Bradford, Leicester and other areas will be interesting as there's an inherent contradiction lurking not far below the surface.

It was interesting to hear Rupert Lowe come up with "restore Christian principles" in his launch blurb for Restore UK. On the back of what are reported to be increasing Church attendances especially among younger people and a move away from secularisation, time will tell if Restore UK can latch on to this sentiment. I'm not 100% sure what Lowe means by "restoring Christian principles" - does he mean Old Testament or New Testament?

IanB2 · July 7

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).

And the UK, as well as other allies, declared war on Japan before the USA actually did!

HYUFD · July 7

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there
There isn't a 'Basildon' seat as there was until 1997, Now the North of the town is combined with the ancient Essex town of Billericay, nowadays part of Basildon Council's area. Something, incidentally, the burghers of Billericay were aghast about when it happened!
It has a Conservative MP, Richard Holden, and Reform were third.

The South half of the town is combined for parliamentary purposes with the East of Thurrock and that area has, I grant you, a Reform MP.
As I said most of the old Basildon seat is now held by McMurdock and most of the old Billericay seat is held by Holden
I didn't realise Holden had defected to Reform!

The old Basildon seat was, more or less, divided across the middle. Some of the area in the South of the town isn't built on; there are a couple of country parks. And a tip!

'Despite its long name, this new constituency is to the greatest extent the successor to the Basildon constituency.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Basildon_and_East_Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

ydoethur · July 7

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Perhaps in more mellow mode but we all know the Reform "hard right" schtick is going to flounder before too long. The next logical political development would be something along the lines of BSW in Germany - a kind of "Reform of the Left" for those who need the simplicity of labels.

A culturally conservative, nationalist, anti-immigrant, interventionist political movement ostensibly from the socialist side of the street wouldn't be unpopular after the ruin of the "hard right" and those with long memories will recall "the dockers" marching "for Enoch" in the 1960s. Such a movement would be strong in its support for institutions like the NHS and local councils though obviously its financial mismanagement would in time be as poor as Reform's.

Whether it can align with the pro-Muslim groups in parts of East London, Birmingham, Bradford, Leicester and other areas will be interesting as there's an inherent contradiction lurking not far below the surface.

It was interesting to hear Rupert Lowe come up with "restore Christian principles" in his launch blurb for Restore UK. On the back of what are reported to be increasing Church attendances especially among younger people and a move away from secularisation, time will tell if Restore UK can latch on to this sentiment. I'm not 100% sure what Lowe means by "restoring Christian principles" - does he mean Old Testament or New Testament?

Technically Old Testament alone would be Jewish principles.

kinabalu · July 7

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
Jesus was a Lefty.
No he believed in the 'Big Society' and charity rather than just the state and was relatively socially conservative

He was quite liberal for the times though.

IanB2 · July 7

wooliedyed said:
One way to view potential for the next GE is to look at what votes there are to spread about.

If we give the LDs their 13% from last time, the SNP and Plaid 4% between them and 3% for the others - Habib, indies, Lowe, Kippers, Galloway etc, that eats 20%
ConRef are polling about 48% splitting around 29 19 RefCon atm.
That leaves 32% for Labour, Greens and 'the Collective'
Unless the LD vote gets cannibalised its difficult to find a path to a left wing administration and very easy to navigate a total meltdown

Equally likely that Reform goes the way of the SDP by then

Nigelb · July 7

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Perhaps in more mellow mode but we all know the Reform "hard right" schtick is going to flounder before too long. The next logical political development would be something along the lines of BSW in Germany - a kind of "Reform of the Left" for those who need the simplicity of labels.

A culturally conservative, nationalist, anti-immigrant, interventionist political movement ostensibly from the socialist side of the street wouldn't be unpopular after the ruin of the "hard right" and those with long memories will recall "the dockers" marching "for Enoch" in the 1960s. Such a movement would be strong in its support for institutions like the NHS and local councils though obviously its financial mismanagement would in time be as poor as Reform's.

Whether it can align with the pro-Muslim groups in parts of East London, Birmingham, Bradford, Leicester and other areas will be interesting as there's an inherent contradiction lurking not far below the surface.

It was interesting to hear Rupert Lowe come up with "restore Christian principles" in his launch blurb for Restore UK. On the back of what are reported to be increasing Church attendances especially among younger people and a move away from secularisation, time will tell if Restore UK can latch on to this sentiment. I'm not 100% sure what Lowe means by "restoring Christian principles" - does he mean Old Testament or New Testament?

I think he's Lowe Church.

FrancisUrquhart · July 7

Iran has deported more than 300,000 Afghan migrants over the last two weeks, Afghan authorities said. The exodus has been sparked by a national security drive in Tehran, which fears Afghans could be spying for Israel.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/07/iran-deportations-afghans-spying-israel/

kjh · July 7

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA

I'm back and I assumed with a new thread this would have died, but no and @hyufd accused me of whitting on about it.

For the final time @hyufd what are all these so many tax minimising things I did again? Can you provide a list. I have given you all the details so prey tell.

And what the hell does 'and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold ' mean? It is gobbledygook nonsense. What the hell does 'cash in hand' in this context mean?

There is no income tax on withdrawal of capital. I have already paid income tax before creating it. Some of it may attract CGT which I pay. There is no cash in hand stuff, whatever that means in this context. You are getting confused with people not declaring income which I have never done.

You are barking. You haven't a clue what you are talking about.

HYUFD · July 7

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
Jesus was a Lefty.
No he believed in the 'Big Society' and charity rather than just the state and was relatively socially conservative
He believed people should sell all that they own and give the money to the poor. I presume that when you did that you thought of some casuistical justification for holding on to the device you're using to post here.

But "socially conservative"? He actually enabled a dangerous criminal to escape the death penalty prescribed by Almighty God for the offence she had committed!

Only if they wanted to be a disciple. He was also quite keen on the parable of the talents and using your skills and investing wisely. He also upheld Mosaic law and believed in lifelong marriage between a man and woman

ydoethur · July 7

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I'm back and I assumed with a new thread this would have died, but no and @hyufd accused me of whitting on about it.

For the final time @hyufd what are all these so many tax minimising things I did again? Can you provide a list. I have given you all the details so prey tell.

And what the hell does 'and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold ' mean? It is gobbledygook nonsense. What the hell does 'cash in hand' in this context mean?

There is no income tax on withdrawal of capital. I have already paid income tax before creating it. Some of it may attract CGT which I pay. There is no cash in hand stuff, whatever that means in this context. You are getting confused with people not declaring income which I have never done.

You are barking. You haven't a clue what you are talking about.

A man who tried to convince us all there was a ferry from Ullapool to Inverness based on misreading a bus timetable?

Say it ain’t so…

HYUFD · July 7

ydoethur said:

stodge said:
Afternoon all

Perhaps in more mellow mode but we all know the Reform "hard right" schtick is going to flounder before too long. The next logical political development would be something along the lines of BSW in Germany - a kind of "Reform of the Left" for those who need the simplicity of labels.

A culturally conservative, nationalist, anti-immigrant, interventionist political movement ostensibly from the socialist side of the street wouldn't be unpopular after the ruin of the "hard right" and those with long memories will recall "the dockers" marching "for Enoch" in the 1960s. Such a movement would be strong in its support for institutions like the NHS and local councils though obviously its financial mismanagement would in time be as poor as Reform's.

Whether it can align with the pro-Muslim groups in parts of East London, Birmingham, Bradford, Leicester and other areas will be interesting as there's an inherent contradiction lurking not far below the surface.

It was interesting to hear Rupert Lowe come up with "restore Christian principles" in his launch blurb for Restore UK. On the back of what are reported to be increasing Church attendances especially among younger people and a move away from secularisation, time will tell if Restore UK can latch on to this sentiment. I'm not 100% sure what Lowe means by "restoring Christian principles" - does he mean Old Testament or New Testament?
Technically Old Testament alone would be Jewish principles.

Reform and Lowe believe in Judeo Christian principles

Malmesbury · July 7

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).
And the UK, as well as other allies, declared war on Japan before the USA actually did!

Because they were attacked by Japan as well.

eek · July 7

FrancisUrquhart said:
Iran has deported more than 300,000 Afghan migrants over the last two weeks, Afghan authorities said. The exodus has been sparked by a national security drive in Tehran, which fears Afghans could be spying for Israel.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/07/iran-deportations-afghans-spying-israel/

I was about to ask how do you deport so many so quickly but there’s a land border that you drive them to and dump them at.

Which means there are an awful lot of people on the Afghan border with little food, shelter or money.

TheScreamingEagles · July 7

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).

It was truly brilliant of us to get the Japanese to take public credit for the attack.

Scott_xP · July 7

@benrileysmith
NEW

Jeremy Corbyn held a campaign event in Wes Streeting’s seat just hours after announcing his new left-wing party.

Joined the candidate who almost beat the Health Sec last election. Railed against the Starmer record.

Also raised £1.5k selling his jam.

ydoethur · July 7

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).
It was truly brilliant of us to get the Japanese to take public credit for the attack.

There was Zero chance otherwise.

#subtlepunning

turbotubbs · July 7

Scott_xP said:
@benrileysmith
NEW

Jeremy Corbyn held a campaign event in Wes Streeting’s seat just hours after announcing his new left-wing party.

Joined the candidate who almost beat the Health Sec last election. Railed against the Starmer record.

Also raised £1.5k selling his jam.

1500quid? What's he putting in it? Say 5 quid a jar that's 300 jars. I thought he was an MP - where is he finding the time?

TheScreamingEagles · July 7

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).
It was truly brilliant of us to get the Japanese to take public credit for the attack.
There was Zero chance otherwise.

#subtlepunning

It was a divine wind up?

wooliedyed · July 7

IanB2 said:

wooliedyed said:
One way to view potential for the next GE is to look at what votes there are to spread about.

If we give the LDs their 13% from last time, the SNP and Plaid 4% between them and 3% for the others - Habib, indies, Lowe, Kippers, Galloway etc, that eats 20%
ConRef are polling about 48% splitting around 29 19 RefCon atm.
That leaves 32% for Labour, Greens and 'the Collective'
Unless the LD vote gets cannibalised its difficult to find a path to a left wing administration and very easy to navigate a total meltdown
Equally likely that Reform goes the way of the SDP by then

The Tories would settle for 48%.
Con gain Bootle

HYUFD · July 7

kjh said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
I'm back and I assumed with a new thread this would have died, but no and @hyufd accused me of whitting on about it.

For the final time @hyufd what are all these so many tax minimising things I did again? Can you provide a list. I have given you all the details so prey tell.

And what the hell does 'and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold ' mean? It is gobbledygook nonsense. What the hell does 'cash in hand' in this context mean?

There is no income tax on withdrawal of capital. I have already paid income tax before creating it. Some of it may attract CGT which I pay. There is no cash in hand stuff, whatever that means in this context. You are getting confused with people not declaring income which I have never done.

You are barking. You haven't a clue what you are talking about.

I didn't restart it, I was responding to those who did.

You were the one who was whinging your cash withdrawals from your capital and your ISAs didn't mean you lost all your WFA not me.

If your income was otherwise over the taxable income threshold where WFA was lost you otherwise would have

IanB2 · July 7

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
On what? You butted in to an argument you hadn't followed from its origin.

Kjh was saying the government should have deprived him of his WFA, if he didn't use so many tax minimisation schemes and take cash in hand from his capital he would have been well over the taxable income threshold for losing his WFA
Jesus was a Lefty.
No he believed in the 'Big Society' and charity rather than just the state and was relatively socially conservative
He believed people should sell all that they own and give the money to the poor. I presume that when you did that you thought of some casuistical justification for holding on to the device you're using to post here.

But "socially conservative"? He actually enabled a dangerous criminal to escape the death penalty prescribed by Almighty God for the offence she had committed!
Only if they wanted to be a disciple. He was also quite keen on the parable of the talents and using your skills and investing wisely. He also upheld Mosaic law and believed in lifelong marriage between a man and woman

It’s questionable whether he even existed.

ydoethur · July 7

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).
It was truly brilliant of us to get the Japanese to take public credit for the attack.
There was Zero chance otherwise.

#subtlepunning
It was a divine wind up?

From her career’s point of view it was certainly kamikaze.

TheScreamingEagles · July 7

Morris_Dancer said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:
It's still Biden's economy.

Fox News: The economy shrank. First time in three years. People are pointing to the tariff policy.

J.D. Vance: This is Joe Biden’s economy.
https://x.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1941929574624854319
With Trump we make allowances because he’s 79 years old and was never very smart.

Vance is only in his 40s and is supposed to be quite bright. What’s his excuse?
Like Julius Caesar, he'll sacrifice anything on the altar of ambition.

So you reckon the name Vance will become a byword for Emperor?

OldKingCole · July 7

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

OldKingCole said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

occasionalranter said:
Shame the old thread just got superseded. As someone who practised tax law for quarter of a century, I was enjoying HYUFD's continuing wilful self humiliation.
His comments directed @OldKingCole were out of order, and he is an embarrassment to decent conservatives

I do not understand why he post such nonsense and insults
Basildon of course voted for the 'undecent conservatives' ie Reform as you would put it even at the last GE when they were third nationally on votes. Now Reform would romp home there
There isn't a 'Basildon' seat as there was until 1997, Now the North of the town is combined with the ancient Essex town of Billericay, nowadays part of Basildon Council's area. Something, incidentally, the burghers of Billericay were aghast about when it happened!
It has a Conservative MP, Richard Holden, and Reform were third.

The South half of the town is combined for parliamentary purposes with the East of Thurrock and that area has, I grant you, a Reform MP.
As I said most of the old Basildon seat is now held by McMurdock and most of the old Billericay seat is held by Holden
I didn't realise Holden had defected to Reform!

The old Basildon seat was, more or less, divided across the middle. Some of the area in the South of the town isn't built on; there are a couple of country parks. And a tip!
'Despite its long name, this new constituency is to the greatest extent the successor to the Basildon constituency.'

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Basildon_and_East_Thurrock_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

One of these days, when I've no paint to watch drying, I'll have a look at the ward populations.
As I said the area of Basildon to the South of the A13 is largely uninhabited until one gets into Thurrock.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 7

BETFAIR has emailed regarding a data breach. Customers should check their emails. Stay safe.

williamglenn · July 7

IanB2 said:

ydoethur said:
@TSE

You mentioned OPT about MAGA obsessives who believe Pearl Harbor was a false flag.

They weren’t the first. Jeanette Rankin, Representative from Montana, thought so too, saying ‘The British are such clever propagandists they might have cooked up the whole story.’ She said this while casting the only vote against declaring war on Japan.

Oddly this absolute batshit line is missing from a Wiki entry that tries to pretend she did it as a point of principle.

Also, we might mention that of course it was Hitler declared war on America, not the other way around (although Congress voted to reciprocate in which vote Rankin, realising what an utter twat she had made of herself over Japan, abstained).
And the UK, as well as other allies, declared war on Japan before the USA actually did!

That wasn't out of solidarity with the US but because Japan attacked British territories across Asia. The way even we tend to focus exclusively on Pearl Harbor is an indictment of our understanding of our own history.

Don't laugh but I'm betting on Jeremy Corbyn or Zarah Sultana becoming PM before 2030

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