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Labour’s Liz Truss problem x 100 – politicalbetting.com
Labour’s Liz Truss problem x 100 – politicalbetting.com
NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday readKeir Starmer is trapped between Labour and the bond market with nowhere to goIt could wreck his premiershipA person close to No10 says there are “100 Liz Trusses” in the party who don’t understand the public financeshttps://t.co/iWiUEuGC3J
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When markets speak you need to listen
Most Labour MPs just want to do nice things and have people stroke their egos.
Or Quantitative Easing, as people trying to give the impression of cleverness call it.
Truss's problem was she cut taxes but not spending
"Nigel Farage labels same sex marriage law 'wrong' - JOE.co.uk" https://www.joe.co.uk/politics/nigel-farage-labels-same-sex-marriage-law-wrong-494689
Last week's word cloud on here where the only words visible were "Winter Fuel Allowance" demonstrate they can't go for the oldsters, and the utter catastrophe of a Labour Government appearing to take money off the most vulnerable in society looked disgusting. Selling a carefully crafted and focused package to stem the burgeoning welfare bill could have worked by politicians less inept than Starmer, Kendall and Reeves. We can't afford to put everyone on PIP if they occasionally feel sad.
The bond markets have a big willy - and now know they can wave it around.
I don't expect them to be any more honest next GE either, and neither will Reform be. It seems you can't get elected by telling the truth.
A party committed to ending the triple lock and indexing of other benefits, leaving it at the Chancellors discretion, and not making pledges over taxation would lose its deposit in every seat.
is awake. And maybe having a coffee
Tosh. Fun, But tosh.
(Although it was nice to hear a bit of Murray Walker in there.)
betting Post:
F1: backed Hulkenberg for points at 7.5 (boosted), with a hedge at 1.8.
https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/british-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html
Given he starts 19th this might sound daft, and it might be. But he's scored from 16th, 13th, and 20th in recent races.
Hi Morris Dancer, Son No1 and his girlfriend are having an amazing long weekend at Silverstone, they also ended up really enjoying the Fat Boy Slim concert last night before the big race today. I had never watched an F1 GP race before I met Fitaloon, but I quickly became a fan of the sport afterwards through him. We watched the Damon Hill documentary last night and I highly recommend it, the 1993/94 F1 seasons were the first time I managed to get to watch them all live along with Fitaloon which made this documentary all the more poignant because at the time I was busy having Sons No1 and 2. Previously my weekend shift work as a nurse meant I rarely got to watch most of the races live during the Ayrton Senna/Nigel Mansell era.
No idea of the veracity of the anecdote (and the dates only just fit) but it sounded interesting and demonstrates the man’s early interest in politics.
Junior Doctors demanding an insane amount, again, just one example.
Last year was 1974 not 1997.
We’re so screwed with this govt. They had a shit legacy and handled it badly.
Rachel Reeves position was already toast the night night before when Keir Starmer caved into that massive Labour welfare bill backbench rebellion that totally wrote off what ever little econocomic credibility this government was left clinging too in their own heads. Has a backbench rebellion ever left its own government in such a weakened state this quickly that its now so holed below the water line and will be unable to recover from this? Its anyone's guess how long Starmer or Reeves will be able to limp along in charge but humiliatingly without any authority before they throw in the towel?! Is Angela Rayner now the defacto leader of the Labour party and god help us the new PM in waiting and about to take us back to the 1970's like an episode of Life on Mars?
Daily Mail - 'Tories warned Labour about Rachel Reeves' tears 17 minutes BEFORE PMQs started'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14878615/Tories-warned-Labour-Rachel-Reeves-tears-17-minutes-PMQs-started.html
"Keir Starmer's claim that he did not know Rachel Reeves was in tears was branded 'nonsense' last night after the Tories insisted they gave Labour 'early warning' of her distress.
Tory MPs revealed they alerted Labour whips to the fact that the Chancellor was weeping in the Commons to ensure she got help.
They say that was at 11.43am – 17 minutes before Prime Minister's Questions when Ms Reeves had tears rolling down her cheeks as she sat next to an apparently oblivious Sir Keir.
One Tory MP said: 'It simply beggars belief that with that much warning, the PM wasn't told."
They gave Brad Pitt's character the car number 7, yes Se7en.
Pressure. Pushing down on me.
That ought to give those who have set the political climate pause for thought, if not a good reason to apologise, but I'm not holding my breath on that one.
Fluminense 🇧🇷 fan puts ketchup on his pizza and eats it in front of the Inter 🇮🇹 fans.
This is the kind of banter we want to see 🤣
https://x.com/ManagerTactical/status/1940835134800122073
...
Raducanu has cemented herself in a tier of women’s tennis that exists just below the very highest echelon, which contains Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, Madison Keys, Zheng Qinwen and, less so now, Elena Rybakina.
https://inews.co.uk/sport/tennis/emma-raducanu-top-10-wimbledon-best-matches-3789374
As there is no political news beyond raking over last week's coals.
The point, which to your credit you make, is for all the talk of "change" this time last year, there's been very little (I do think in some areas below the radar progress is being made such as NHS waiting times which will impact) and while I couldn't go as far as to call Starmer "Continuity Sunak", the fact remains Labour came into the office aware of the problems and seemingly bereft of solutions.
By closing off options on VAT, NI and Income Tax, they are forced to do the "stealth" tax rises so beloved of the Conservatives such as freezing thresholds so more people come into higher rates of tax.
That was politically stupid and the fact is with a majority of 170 or whatever, you can, indeed should, be radical and if that radicalism means short to medium term unpopularity for long term gain that's what you do.
The four issues I'm watching are management of public finances, social care, reform of local Government finance and immigration and to be honest none of the parties, as far as I can tell, have any practical or coherent solutions to any of the concerns on these issues which explains as strong an anti-politician sentiment as I've ever seen. They aren't easy issues but they aren't intractable.
I'm seeing this in my beloved world of horse racing which is already whingeing about a proposal to bring betting duty into line with remote gaming duty. Apparently this will "kill" horse racing (no, it won't) and it seems whenever you put a proposal out there, given the power of social media, those opposed are able to rapidly build a strong campaign. That's the nature of democracy and technology in cahoots and Governments seem unable or unwilling to withstand the social media storm.
What happens then is those groups less able to respond get picked on and demonised and have to take the pain - is that how we really want our democracy to operate?
She is a good speaker other than it is far too fast.
And a load of useless to mediocre Faireys.
Anyway some spoddy kid won by a landslide standing for the SDP.
Im still convinced the teaching staff rigged it
But because everything is fine Labour now have the impossible task of telling people that no things are not fine. The black hole was Reeve's attempt to get out of the mess but she did it so badly that it's not helped at all..
And it comes down to the point that Labour has done a reverse of calling wolf. They needed to do it before they were elected but because they haven't few people are listening now they are explaining the issues.
And why has Kuennsberg added the half-witted Paddy O'Connell to her already unlistenable and moronic podcast?
First time in '83 when he came fourth to Prost in the Lotus. And later in his dominant championship year when the Williams drove into the distance.
'83 was absolutely sweltering, the traffic was indescribable, and the atmosphere amazing.
It might make them take a short term hit but if they point out the nasty necessities, the reality, the pain that the country needs to go through, and very very clearly the effects if Labour don’t do these things then over the next four years, as the things they have prohesised come true then they should get a fair hearing at an election where they say “we told you this would happen, we have wanrned you what the medicine is and at least you will have honesty with the pain but a long term fix”.
During the Truss/Sunak leadership election Rishi basically said if the gov does what Truss says then x,y and z will happen. The electorate voted for rainbows and unicorns and then exactly what Rishi said would happen happened.
When it came to her ouster I think most Tories looked at his prediction and realised they should just give the gig to the person who was correct.
Now he didn’t deliver great things but him and Hunt steadied the ship and put us on a path to slow recovery from a very bad place.
So now is the time to hammer home brutal honesty by the Tories about triple lock, benefits, welfare, etc and reap the benefits in four years.*
*I could be completely wrong.
I don't remember the year. I don't remember who won.
My abiding memory is how much better it was on TV than live...
The same is true of the Calcutta Cup match at Murrayfield. In the pub with a pint beats the stadium, every time.
Surely Norwish is a lot more fun than the press it gets. A dreaming cathedral city, the jewel of East Anglia.
Rupert and the Tories once again on the same hymn sheet. Im increasingly convinced he will run as a Tory or on a joint Tory-Restore Britain ticket in Yarmouth
I suppose he may be sh*te but his politics are more in keeping with BBC values than, Lineker, Vorderman, Maitlis, Sopel or Goodall.
I too think last year was 1974 rather than 1997, but no sign of anyone on the opposition benches of capability. I don't like Farages politics, but his shambolic personality cult, with no credible lieutenants doesn't bode well for functioning government.
In the past we might have been watching the light meter on the board telling us that it is too dark to play, but instead we will get to see England skittled by lunch.
The problem was coming into office (and there would have been discussions with senior civil servants in advance), it was clear everything that needed to be done couldn't be done on day one. Most would need complex legislation and take time to have an impact.
Labour thought they needed to hit the ground running and instead they just hit the ground. In truth, the theory of taking winter fuel allowance away from wealthy pensioners wasn't a bad one but the way the policy was presented was about as bad as it could have been. Had Reeves said, for example, we'll take WFA away from higher rate taxpayers, yes, there'd have been grumbling particularly from those at the cliff edge of the thresholds but overall that would have been muted and probably forgotten.
The big problem remains "the small boats" for which Starmer, like Badenoch and Farage, has no coherent, practical or affordable solution.
10,000 does make Advance the largest by membership outside the HoC (I think!) He's overtaken Galloway, UKIP, SDP etc
"I was there!"
"Did you see it?"
"no..."
"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."
Goodbye to All That
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that
Thank you for your attention.
https://x.com/tayab_ali_/status/1941625955321020787
https://www.nrpfnetwork.org.uk/information-and-resources/rights-and-entitlements/immigration-status-and-entitlements/who-has-no-recourse-to-public-funds
I note that Mel Stride widened the definition on Kuenssberg to 'those with one foreign national' in the marriage/partnership. Well our dear departed QE II would fall into that category.
Seems the Conservatives are back on the same Rwanda-type ground again. If only they had fixed the issue in the last 14 years.
How can you believe those who now claim to want to be "tough" on spending when they weren't when in office themselves?
The other problem the Conservatives have (apart from Liz Truss who may be Reform's problem one day) is the old mantra of cutting spending and taxes doesn't play as well as it once did. The demands on spending, whether it be from an ageing population, an insecure world or simply paying back the debt already accumulated, are growing so the contributions we all make to balance the other side of the ledger need to increase whether it be via direct or indirect taxation, duty on fuel or wealth taxes.
Fiona Bruce is also apparently a secret Tory
Surely the Labour top brass (and the backroom policy wonks) must have felt that victory was at least possible by Christmas 2023 ..... and certainly by Easter 2024. We rather got the impression that the mindset was 'OMG we've won; what do we do now!"
Rather like Reform in the County Councils now.
If the LibDems had been in that position one could have understood it.
To be fair, she was the very model of restraint compared with how the Sky News Australia presenters reacted to the crushing of the LNP Coalition at their election. They were flailing around in their anger and despair.
As to "left wing men" - who are these people? I've met a men who played on the left wing for his football club - does that count?
This wouldn't have happened with Richard Dimbleby or Alvar Liddell...
The only way out is to cut welfare spending and get people back into work. We can't afford to pay the lazy to sit at home doing nothing on benefits.
Obviously you don't get to "see" everything that happens but TV is a terrible medium for conveying the subtleties of a course and what actually faces each player.
When it was at Hoylake I watched most of the field come through the first green (as played). This had a number of slopes on it and a nasty bunker but also a smallish flat area of not much more than 5 yards by 10. Not a few players struggled to be accurate enough in the very dry conditions and either disappeared into the sand or missed the green trying to go for the flag. Most still made par but not convincingly.
A single player elected to hit an iron off the tee and from some distance back landed the ball perfectly in the exact centre of the flat area, and walked off with a simple par.
That player? Tiger Woods, who of course went on to win.
On the TV all the nuance was lost.
Where there has been a gaping hole is in economic policy, partly because of waiting for the OBR as posted earlier, but also because Reeves and Starmer are technocrats, apparently under the impression that Treasury civil servants already had a map pointing our way to the sunlit uplands but had been blocked by evil Tories for ideological reasons.
There is also, and the Conservatives are the same here, no guiding principle. Just as Kemi cannot say what is the point of the Conservative Party, so Starmer is silent on what Labour is for.
Prior to the election he and Reeves succeeded in presenting the image of competent administrators who can actually get things done. A year into government it seems that there doesn't seem to have been a plan. It is almost as though they genuinely believed that they would succeed simply by virtue of not being the Conservatives. Perhaps Sue Gray had a plan, but her career-long habit seems to have been not to write anything down, lest it be subject to FOI, so we shall probably never know.
There are two notable exceptions, where the government seems to know what it it is doing: Wes Streeting has a plan for the NHS (I think this will pay off by the next election; it may already be moving in the right direction) and Ed Miliband seems to be getting done exactly what he wants in energy (I am less sure this will pay off, but he seems so messianically sure of himself that I feel there must be something to it). Both of these are plans that I think were broadly outlined before the election unlike the recent attempt at welfare reform.
On central economic policy, it really was just 'vibes'. Sorry, I don't have it with me, Liz Truss ate my homework. But if they aren't going to raise any of the taxes that actually bring in revenue, they will have to cut spending. Saying 'growth' three times while clicking your heels together doesn't work.
A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
🌳 CON 81 (-40)
🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)
Here is the implied vote share for major UK wide parties:
➡️ REF UK 28% (+13)
🌹 LAB 22% (-13)
🌳 CON 21% (-3)
🔶 LIB DEM 15% (+2)
🌍 GREEN 8% (+1)
N = 11,282 Dates: 13-30/6
It is the 'give away be nice cus that makes me feel good party'.
You can always watch the coverage afterwards.
I miss the Tour de Yorkshire. No way would I contemplate riding up Sutton Bank if it was open to traffic...
I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.
And Starmer, as Leader of the Party, seems somewhat lost; I've argued before that when he went into politics after a reasonably distinguished career in the law, he apparently didn't expect to the Leader and doesn't really know what to do with the job.
Reform on 29% there last year, I think any (non ridiculous) result with Reform 20% plus nationally and its a Bridget too far for Phillipson
Today I can see the F1
And the test match
And Wimbledon
And the Tour de France
And the Womens' Euros
In person I could see a very tiny part of 1 of them instead
1. The economy is too delicate to withstand play acting of this nature. Reeves and Starmer's talking down of the fiscal and economic situation did genuine harm to it.
2. Their selected performative 'tough decisions' went badly. Particularly the WFA, but also the Farms Tax.
3. They weren't actually being 'tough' - caving in to the train drivers but complaining about the black hole hasn't made sense.
4. A combination of economical alarm, and political pressure has led to an immediate reversal, so they have had to fast forward the 'we can spend this because of our tough decisions'
In relation to number 3, a far bigger and braver version of this strategy would have been to actually stick to Tory spending plans like in 1997. Actually try and take £50bn off welfare or however much it was.
As soon as Sunak started the rhetoric about his green investment and growth plan equating to "Labour irresponsibility", it was first heavily cut back, and then ditched. This was Labour's central economic and policy error so far, and they still
have time to rethink on it.
Above 15k, the issue was the supercharger. The design of the Mustang hadn’t included a turbocharger, mostly for cost/simplicity reasons. The USAF preferred turbochargers for high altitude work.
So the Alison was left with a single stage supercharger in the Mustang. Hence the change to the Merlin with a two stage supercharger.
IIRC the RAF used Alison engines Mustangs until the end of the war, for low level ground attack.