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Two NYC bets you should be making – politicalbetting.com

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  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,626
    edited July 2
    .
    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for the Letby truthers.

    CPS considering further criminal charges against Lucy Letby

    Detectives have handed over evidence related to the death and collapse of other babies at hospitals where she worked


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/lucy-letby-charges-cps-n6n7g2z5c

    What a complete waste of taxpayers money and CPS time, Letby is serving several whole life terms, what do the CPS want a judge to do, sentence a reinacarnated Letby to a new term after her death? That is assuming she is guilty of course whatever the Letby truthers say
    The purpose of criminal convictions, in general include

    - Closure for the victims and then family of victims
    - Public statement of what happened
    - Publicly assigning responsibility to the criminal
    - Recognition that a crime was committed and could possibly have been stopped.

    In addition, here, sorting out deaths caused by ill intent from those caused by negligence has value.
    Which has already been done given Letby has been convicted and got a whole life order (assuming the verdict was correct and truthers wrong).

    The CPS are just wasting taxpayers money trying to bring more charges against her which could go on convicting criminals who are not already in jail for the rest of their lives
    What about the parents of other children who may have been murdered?

    Justice isnt just locking up the guilty.
    Fully agree- and even if it isn't be most cost-efficient thing to do, providing clear closure to grieving relatives is the sort of thing that civilised places do.

    But maximising the function "bad guys locked up per taxpayer dollar" is one of those ghastly Americanisms that the British right are increasingly thirsty for.
    If you want true cost efficiency, end all treatment for premature babies.

    Aside from the medical and lifetime costs, think of the savings on trials and negligence cases.

    #Aktion4U
    No but sadly I think the Letby case means fewer nurses will want to work in premature baby units even if they would want to do so for the best of motives
    You would think that people wouldn't want to work with people who go around killing patients.

    Yet hospitals seem to have no problems getting people to work with anaesthatists.
    My anaesthetist was a bit mad. "You're young and fit so I'll be extra disappointed if you die", as he hands me a leaflet explaining that they don't really know why the drugs work in the first place.
    I think dying will be just like going under anaesthetic. I've been under a couple of times and you don't remember much about the before, and wake up with a blank mind after, with no remembered dreams or thoughts. So I reckon death is just a lights out moment. The switch gets flicked and you're done and dusted. No after life, no soul drifting up to see the bearded old white fella or being dragged down for a rave in Satan's gaff.
    Cancel all religions, I've solved it, and it ain't 42.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,504
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly22eelnxjo

    "Heathrow considering legal action against National Grid over fire"
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,334
    edited July 2
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Bloomberg:

    There’s been quite a hefty move in the pound and gilts in the last few minutes after speculation about Rachel Reeves’ future

    Sterling’s dropped 0.7%, while gilt yields have jumped, with the 30-year yield up more than 15 basis points

    At least somebody rates Rachel Reeves then.
    Fear over who may replace her. It's a sign that the crazies have the upper hand now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442
    'A man has suffered a serious head injury after a sword went through the visor of his armour during a battle re-enactment in East Sussex.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-seriously-injured-after-sword-goes-through-visor-during-battle-re-enactment-at-bodiam-castle-in-east-sussex-13390856
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,420
    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    kinabalu said:

    Taz said:

    Oh dear. I made the error on Twitter of saying we should be concerned to ensure Rachel Reeves, on a human level, is okay.

    I don’t even know what a Simpdick is, but I am one apparently !

    Well you're not. People using that sort of language are sheer tack.

    Sense, sense, sense, sensitivity, that's the beauty of Taz.
    Ha !!

    On the plus side the Sunday Sport Twitter feed agreed with me.
    Thanks. I've got these little jingles for posters. Drop one in every so often. Very sweet and also a bit sad.
    I love a seventies or eighties cultural reference.

    We were all electric at the time.

    I’ll keep an eye out for ‘watch out there’s a Humphrey about’
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Scott_xP said:

    Badenoch lives down to expectations

    What are blathering on about? 😂
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,879
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for the Letby truthers.

    CPS considering further criminal charges against Lucy Letby

    Detectives have handed over evidence related to the death and collapse of other babies at hospitals where she worked


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/lucy-letby-charges-cps-n6n7g2z5c

    What a complete waste of taxpayers money and CPS time, Letby is serving several whole life terms, what do the CPS want a judge to do, sentence a reinacarnated Letby to a new term after her death? That is assuming she is guilty of course whatever the Letby truthers say
    The purpose of criminal convictions, in general include

    - Closure for the victims and then family of victims
    - Public statement of what happened
    - Publicly assigning responsibility to the criminal
    - Recognition that a crime was committed and could possibly have been stopped.

    In addition, here, sorting out deaths caused by ill intent from those caused by negligence has value.
    Which has already been done given Letby has been convicted and got a whole life order (assuming the verdict was correct and truthers wrong).

    The CPS are just wasting taxpayers money trying to bring more charges against her which could go on convicting criminals who are not already in jail for the rest of their lives
    What about the parents of other children who may have been murdered?

    Justice isnt just locking up the guilty.
    Fully agree- and even if it isn't be most cost-efficient thing to do, providing clear closure to grieving relatives is the sort of thing that civilised places do.

    But maximising the function "bad guys locked up per taxpayer dollar" is one of those ghastly Americanisms that the British right are increasingly thirsty for.
    If you want true cost efficiency, end all treatment for premature babies.

    Aside from the medical and lifetime costs, think of the savings on trials and negligence cases.

    #Aktion4U
    No but sadly I think the Letby case means fewer nurses will want to work in premature baby units even if they would want to do so for the best of motives
    You would think that people wouldn't want to work with people who go around killing patients.

    Yet hospitals seem to have no problems getting people to work with anaesthatists.
    My anaesthetist was a bit mad. "You're young and fit so I'll be extra disappointed if you die", as he hands me a leaflet explaining that they don't really know why the drugs work in the first place.
    One of my best friends is a surgeon, and whenever one of his patients dies, you can be sure he blames the anaesthatist.
    That's likely true, slightly more often than not.
    It is, especially with older patients.
    You'd need to see the numbers of deaths in his theatre to assess that, though... :neutral:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,442
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    By contrast, Blair and Brown actually actively hated each other at points during Blair’s government .

    Neither would have had the lack of decency to put down the other like that. I suppose one could say the “clunking fist” thing was a backhanded compliment, but in the context it was delivered it showed support for the other.

    I didn't watch this. How did SKS humiliate RR? What did he say or do?
    He failed to confirm she’d keep her job twice at PMQs. Didn’t even confront the question, just ignored it.

    At best it was clumsy and thoughtless, and showed a lack of deftness. At worst he was actively signalling she was on the way out.
    For those exact same reasons I thought he weathered PMQs well. Nothing Kemi said derailed him. Because he is clumsy and thoughtless so was happy to plough on happily (if he was able to feel such an emotion), ignoring her questions.

    A female chancellor sobbing quietly behind him while he refused to assure her of her future would not have made the slightest impression on him, certainly when in PM mode and most probably when in kicking back with a beer at home mode either.
    He’s clearly on the spectrum in a bad way. Doesn’t dream. Doesn’t understand humour. Utterly tin-eared. Devoid of empathy (at least in public)

    He does what he does

    For clarity I know loads of people on the spectrum who are much nicer than him. Warm, funny, sympathetic
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,133
    @HoskingTheTimes

    Gilts plunging, cost of govt borrowing up steeply. On Richter scale of alarm, this one day move is roughly two-thirds of a Kwarteng on the day of his mini budget
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,133
    deeply unpleasant

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    After a Treasury spokesperson says Rachel Reeves was upset at PMQs due to a personal matter, Kemi Badenoch's spokesman tells journalists that "something strange is going on" and insists the Chancellor immediately disclose what is happening in her personal life

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lsy7ilz5qs2w
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for the Letby truthers.

    CPS considering further criminal charges against Lucy Letby

    Detectives have handed over evidence related to the death and collapse of other babies at hospitals where she worked


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/lucy-letby-charges-cps-n6n7g2z5c

    What a complete waste of taxpayers money and CPS time, Letby is serving several whole life terms, what do the CPS want a judge to do, sentence a reinacarnated Letby to a new term after her death? That is assuming she is guilty of course whatever the Letby truthers say
    The purpose of criminal convictions, in general include

    - Closure for the victims and then family of victims
    - Public statement of what happened
    - Publicly assigning responsibility to the criminal
    - Recognition that a crime was committed and could possibly have been stopped.

    In addition, here, sorting out deaths caused by ill intent from those caused by negligence has value.
    Which has already been done given Letby has been convicted and got a whole life order (assuming the verdict was correct and truthers wrong).

    The CPS are just wasting taxpayers money trying to bring more charges against her which could go on convicting criminals who are not already in jail for the rest of their lives
    What about the parents of other children who may have been murdered?

    Justice isnt just locking up the guilty.
    Fully agree- and even if it isn't be most cost-efficient thing to do, providing clear closure to grieving relatives is the sort of thing that civilised places do.

    But maximising the function "bad guys locked up per taxpayer dollar" is one of those ghastly Americanisms that the British right are increasingly thirsty for.
    If you want true cost efficiency, end all treatment for premature babies.

    Aside from the medical and lifetime costs, think of the savings on trials and negligence cases.

    #Aktion4U
    No but sadly I think the Letby case means fewer nurses will want to work in premature baby units even if they would want to do so for the best of motives
    Did Harold Shipman lead to a big drop in people wanting to be GPs?

    No.
    GPs are paid more than nurses and premature babies are more vulnerable life expectancy wise even than pensioners
    I'll take that as support for increasing nurses' wages.
    They certainly deserve as big a payrise as junior doctors have got
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,879

    .

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for the Letby truthers.

    CPS considering further criminal charges against Lucy Letby

    Detectives have handed over evidence related to the death and collapse of other babies at hospitals where she worked


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/lucy-letby-charges-cps-n6n7g2z5c

    What a complete waste of taxpayers money and CPS time, Letby is serving several whole life terms, what do the CPS want a judge to do, sentence a reinacarnated Letby to a new term after her death? That is assuming she is guilty of course whatever the Letby truthers say
    The purpose of criminal convictions, in general include

    - Closure for the victims and then family of victims
    - Public statement of what happened
    - Publicly assigning responsibility to the criminal
    - Recognition that a crime was committed and could possibly have been stopped.

    In addition, here, sorting out deaths caused by ill intent from those caused by negligence has value.
    Which has already been done given Letby has been convicted and got a whole life order (assuming the verdict was correct and truthers wrong).

    The CPS are just wasting taxpayers money trying to bring more charges against her which could go on convicting criminals who are not already in jail for the rest of their lives
    What about the parents of other children who may have been murdered?

    Justice isnt just locking up the guilty.
    Fully agree- and even if it isn't be most cost-efficient thing to do, providing clear closure to grieving relatives is the sort of thing that civilised places do.

    But maximising the function "bad guys locked up per taxpayer dollar" is one of those ghastly Americanisms that the British right are increasingly thirsty for.
    If you want true cost efficiency, end all treatment for premature babies.

    Aside from the medical and lifetime costs, think of the savings on trials and negligence cases.

    #Aktion4U
    No but sadly I think the Letby case means fewer nurses will want to work in premature baby units even if they would want to do so for the best of motives
    You would think that people wouldn't want to work with people who go around killing patients.

    Yet hospitals seem to have no problems getting people to work with anaesthatists.
    My anaesthetist was a bit mad. "You're young and fit so I'll be extra disappointed if you die", as he hands me a leaflet explaining that they don't really know why the drugs work in the first place.
    I think dying will be just like going under anaesthetic. I've been under a couple of times and you don't remember much about the before, and wake up with a blank mind after, with no remembered dreams or thoughts. So I reckon death is just a lights out moment. The switch gets flicked and you're done and dusted. No after life, no soul drifting up to see the bearded old white fella or being dragged down for a rave in Satan's gaff.
    Cancel all religions, I've solved it, and it ain't 42.
    On the four occasions I've had them, I recalled the slide into unconsciousness each time. But you're right about the complete blank while under; almost no sensation of time having passed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,442
    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Thoughts and prayers for the Letby truthers.

    CPS considering further criminal charges against Lucy Letby

    Detectives have handed over evidence related to the death and collapse of other babies at hospitals where she worked


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/lucy-letby-charges-cps-n6n7g2z5c

    What a complete waste of taxpayers money and CPS time, Letby is serving several whole life terms, what do the CPS want a judge to do, sentence a reinacarnated Letby to a new term after her death? That is assuming she is guilty of course whatever the Letby truthers say
    The purpose of criminal convictions, in general include

    - Closure for the victims and then family of victims
    - Public statement of what happened
    - Publicly assigning responsibility to the criminal
    - Recognition that a crime was committed and could possibly have been stopped.

    In addition, here, sorting out deaths caused by ill intent from those caused by negligence has value.
    Which has already been done given Letby has been convicted and got a whole life order (assuming the verdict was correct and truthers wrong).

    The CPS are just wasting taxpayers money trying to bring more charges against her which could go on convicting criminals who are not already in jail for the rest of their lives
    What about the parents of other children who may have been murdered?

    Justice isnt just locking up the guilty.
    Fully agree- and even if it isn't be most cost-efficient thing to do, providing clear closure to grieving relatives is the sort of thing that civilised places do.

    But maximising the function "bad guys locked up per taxpayer dollar" is one of those ghastly Americanisms that the British right are increasingly thirsty for.
    If you want true cost efficiency, end all treatment for premature babies.

    Aside from the medical and lifetime costs, think of the savings on trials and negligence cases.

    #Aktion4U
    No but sadly I think the Letby case means fewer nurses will want to work in premature baby units even if they would want to do so for the best of motives
    You would think that people wouldn't want to work with people who go around killing patients.

    Yet hospitals seem to have no problems getting people to work with anaesthatists.
    My anaesthetist was a bit mad. "You're young and fit so I'll be extra disappointed if you die", as he hands me a leaflet explaining that they don't really know why the drugs work in the first place.
    One of my best friends is a surgeon, and whenever one of his patients dies, you can be sure he blames the anaesthatist.
    The patient needs to be positive enough to control it, which is unfortunately not always possible (eg if unconscious).

    I have only caught one probable error in 25 years, but that was an insulin infusion rate set 10x too high. It may well have been caught by one of the interlocking checking systems - which in daily practice are good, but guards need not to be relaxed.

    There's something therapeutic in having to have an epidural (barrier - in my case waist down) anaesthetic and being able to watch an operation on your foot.
    Is not the point (an actual error).

    The NHS is so established so as not really to care about the fate of its patients. At the individual level there is of course often care and attention and concern but institutionally it doesn't matter if patients live or die.

    Most notable and noticeable for old people, but would easily apply to those who are very ill where a positive result might be unexpected and death rates might point to a systemic issue where that structure is wanting and "lets" people die.

    Under those circumstances of course people will look for a bad actor to blame and the flawed procedures continue.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Simple fact is that Labours economics credibility is shot, and everyone knows it.




  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442
    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,856
    Scott_xP said:

    @HoskingTheTimes

    Gilts plunging, cost of govt borrowing up steeply. On Richter scale of alarm, this one day move is roughly two-thirds of a Kwarteng on the day of his mini budget

    The differences is that the problem is with the MPs rather than the executive (not that they're especially inspiring!). It's a bit like football, you can sack the manager, but you can't sack the players.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,510
    eek said:

    On a happier note I am supervising three Americans (from Texas) for the next few weeks. They asked me on Monday if this Friday is a day off in the UK. :D

    (Think about the date)

    I’ve always thought we could do with a bank holiday in early July (replacing one of the ones in May).

    The Traitorous Yankees day sounds like a suitable “celebration”
    You could celebrate the Royalist victory at Marston Moor, which happened on this day 381 years ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 62,442
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    But then more rich people will flee. Tax base shrinks further; taxes go up again; more rich people leave. And so the doom loop continues
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,133
    @Steven_Swinford

    Rachel Reeves had a brief altercation with Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, on entering Commons, but was already said to be in a 'difficult place' over the 'personal matter'

    Hoyle is said to have pulled her up on her conduct during Treasury questions on Tuesday, when he asked her to give shorter answers. Reeves is said to have rolled her eyes in response and said 'ugh right'

    Reeves denied answering back then started crying

    Number 10 said earlier that she is 'going nowhere'
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,679
    edited July 2
    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    No, because:

    a) all our government debt is in our own currency, so a big foreign currency loan wouldn't help us
    b) unlike Greece or Ireland, we print our own currency - if we want more, we can get it easily enough.
    c) the IMF's resources are already strained, and it just doesn't have the resources to bail us out - we are much too large an economy for their available resources to make a difference
    d) it's morally wrong anyway - the IMF's funds are supposed to help developing countries in temporary capital market difficulties, not developed ones with vast capital markets but lazy and incompetent governments
    e) it wouldn't do us any good anyway - what we need is sensible economic policies, and we know roughly what they are, and can formulate and implement them ourselves. That they are directly opposed to what the government's instincts are isn't, and cannot be, the IMF's problem, and they would be very reluctant to become the fall guys for Reeves's and Starmer's economic illiteracy.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,993

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,922

    eek said:

    On a happier note I am supervising three Americans (from Texas) for the next few weeks. They asked me on Monday if this Friday is a day off in the UK. :D

    (Think about the date)

    I’ve always thought we could do with a bank holiday in early July (replacing one of the ones in May).

    The Traitorous Yankees day sounds like a suitable “celebration”
    You could celebrate the Royalist victory at Marston Moor, which happened on this day 381 years ago.
    That sounds wonderful to me. Love it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Rachel Reeves had a brief altercation with Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, on entering Commons, but was already said to be in a 'difficult place' over the 'personal matter'

    Hoyle is said to have pulled her up on her conduct during Treasury questions on Tuesday, when he asked her to give shorter answers. Reeves is said to have rolled her eyes in response and said 'ugh right'

    Reeves denied answering back then started crying

    Number 10 said earlier that she is 'going nowhere'

    We can see she is going nowhere...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,042
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford

    Rachel Reeves had a brief altercation with Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker, on entering Commons, but was already said to be in a 'difficult place' over the 'personal matter'

    Hoyle is said to have pulled her up on her conduct during Treasury questions on Tuesday, when he asked her to give shorter answers. Reeves is said to have rolled her eyes in response and said 'ugh right'

    Reeves denied answering back then started crying

    Number 10 said earlier that she is 'going nowhere'

    Hoyle somehow manages to outdo Bercow in pomposity and self-importance.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,993

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    By far the strongest piece of evidence in the trial was the insulin and C-peptide levels of two of the babies.

    That is: Baby F and Baby L both showed high levels of insulin, but low levels of C-peptide: a situation which, the expert witness Dr Dewi Evans testified, could only come about through the administration of synethtic insulin.

    Now: it is possible that the tests were flawed, or that both babies had some rare condition that led to them having this imbalance. (That is certainly what Dr Shoo Lee believes, when he wrote his report.) If it were just the one baby, then I think the "rare condition" argument be a lot more persuasive. It just seems really unlikely that two babies would both suffer from an imbalance that does not seem to have been recorded in any other babies. The quality of the tests argument seems more plausible, and leads to the question about whether the tests were done at the same facility at the same time, and whether the laboratory in question has registered similar outliers in the past with other tests.
    The quality of the testing has been questioned.
    ... by Letby truthers. Appeal judges have not been swayed by the evidence put before them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,997
    edited July 2
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    This is the dream of me and ilk. A lurch to the left with 4 years still to do stuff. I doubt it myself but it's a little more 'on' now than it was before this welfare shenanigan.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    Regrettably true - downside of Labour collapse quite so early is the crazies coming in passing their dream agenda with a massive mandate free majority.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,133
    The Mad King appears to suggest he will prevent a free and fair election in New York

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lsyayfryxk2g

    Well, you got to start somewhere...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,042
    In Trump Derangement Syndrome news, people have convinced themselves that ICE are dropping migrants into the ocean from deportation flights:

    https://x.com/vmpirevnom/status/1940201283513958615
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Scott_xP said:

    @Steven_Swinford


    Number 10 said earlier that she is 'going nowhere'

    The entire government is going nowhere, fast...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,032

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    By far the strongest piece of evidence in the trial was the insulin and C-peptide levels of two of the babies.

    That is: Baby F and Baby L both showed high levels of insulin, but low levels of C-peptide: a situation which, the expert witness Dr Dewi Evans testified, could only come about through the administration of synethtic insulin.

    Now: it is possible that the tests were flawed, or that both babies had some rare condition that led to them having this imbalance. (That is certainly what Dr Shoo Lee believes, when he wrote his report.) If it were just the one baby, then I think the "rare condition" argument be a lot more persuasive. It just seems really unlikely that two babies would both suffer from an imbalance that does not seem to have been recorded in any other babies. The quality of the tests argument seems more plausible, and leads to the question about whether the tests were done at the same facility at the same time, and whether the laboratory in question has registered similar outliers in the past with other tests.
    The quality of the testing has been questioned.
    ... by Letby truthers. Appeal judges have not been swayed by the evidence put before them.
    Where's Sir Alan Bates when we need him.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,993
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    By far the strongest piece of evidence in the trial was the insulin and C-peptide levels of two of the babies.

    That is: Baby F and Baby L both showed high levels of insulin, but low levels of C-peptide: a situation which, the expert witness Dr Dewi Evans testified, could only come about through the administration of synethtic insulin.

    Now: it is possible that the tests were flawed, or that both babies had some rare condition that led to them having this imbalance. (That is certainly what Dr Shoo Lee believes, when he wrote his report.) If it were just the one baby, then I think the "rare condition" argument be a lot more persuasive. It just seems really unlikely that two babies would both suffer from an imbalance that does not seem to have been recorded in any other babies. The quality of the tests argument seems more plausible, and leads to the question about whether the tests were done at the same facility at the same time, and whether the laboratory in question has registered similar outliers in the past with other tests.
    The quality of the testing has been questioned.
    As I said: that is the area that looks likeliest to have been the cause of a mistake (if there is one).

    My issue is that the quality of testing is always questioned! If you ever watch a US murder trial, then there's always an expert witness who can found to suggest DNA testing was contaminated or somesuch.

    What I don't know, as a layperson, is whether the tests for the two babies were done at the same time and in the same lab, which increases the possibility it was lab error. (Or rather it means that one error could affect multiple samples.) If they were done at separate times, and these readings are ones that the lab in question has never seen before, then it makes the possibility of error seem less likely.
    If I've got this right, the blood tests in question were contemporary ones. One baby's collapse was in August 2015 and the other's in April 2016, so that implies the tests were done months apart.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Scott_xP said:

    deeply unpleasant

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    After a Treasury spokesperson says Rachel Reeves was upset at PMQs due to a personal matter, Kemi Badenoch's spokesman tells journalists that "something strange is going on" and insists the Chancellor immediately disclose what is happening in her personal life

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lsy7ilz5qs2w

    Whatever it is is costing the country and mortgage holders billions if not resolved, so she needs to put her big girl pants on and explain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    But then more rich people will flee. Tax base shrinks further; taxes go up again; more rich people leave. And so the doom loop continues
    Yes but this government is moving ever closer to 1970s Labour governments and further away from Blairite New Labour
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,679

    On a happier note I am supervising three Americans (from Texas) for the next few weeks. They asked me on Monday if this Friday is a day off in the UK. :D

    As about forty countries around the world celebrate independence from the British Empire, having a day off on Friday would be a dangerous precedent.

    Though if we manage to get rid of Northern Ireland at some point, I'd happily make an exception. It could be paid for out of the £15-20 billion in annual savings we'd make.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,823

    But as promised I have given you a thread on the alternative vote system.

    Here's Dave Cameron (PBUH) on the "superior" AV system:

    “I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong. Politics shouldn’t be some mind-bending exercise.

    “It’s about what you feel in your gut – about the values you hold dear and the beliefs you instinctively have. And I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong.

    “There are three big problems with AV that strike at the heart of how I believe our democracy should work.

    “First, I believe power should lie with the people – and AV would take some of that power away.

    “Second, I believe there should be real accountability between the pledges politicians put in their manifestos and the action they take in government.

    “AV would damage that chain of accountability. And third, I believe in the principle of one person, one vote.

    “If you want a system that makes your politicians accountable.

    “If you want a system that enshrines the principle of one person, one vote.

    “You must vote on May 5th, and you must vote No to AV.

    “The biggest danger right now is that Britain sleepwalks into this second-rate system, waking up on May 6th with a voting system that damages our democracy.

    “We must not let that happen. So we’ve got to get out there and fight, and get out there and win.”


    - Dave in the Torygraph, 2011.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,661
    edited July 2
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    This is the dream of me and ilk. A lurch to the left with 4 years still to do stuff. I doubt it myself but it's a little more 'on' now than it was before this welfare shenanigan.
    A wealth tax would be as pointless, complicated and counterproductive as some of the sillier aspects of Brexit. A land value tax could work, but it’s a long term reform not a short term fix.

    As the usually spot on Dan Neidle has written about extensively, our problem is that we’re not raising enough from the median worker. That’s partly rates but also working population demographics. Way less than we have done historically and way less than most other countries. A 1 or 2p increase in basic rate income tax would fund more than even an ambitious wealth tax.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,856
    maaarsh said:

    Scott_xP said:

    deeply unpleasant

    @adambienkov.bsky.social‬

    After a Treasury spokesperson says Rachel Reeves was upset at PMQs due to a personal matter, Kemi Badenoch's spokesman tells journalists that "something strange is going on" and insists the Chancellor immediately disclose what is happening in her personal life

    https://bsky.app/profile/adambienkov.bsky.social/post/3lsy7ilz5qs2w

    Whatever it is is costing the country and mortgage holders billions if not resolved, so she needs to put her big girl pants on and explain.
    She shouldn't have been there if there is something going on in her personal life.

    As you say, she is costing people money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442
    Fishing said:

    On a happier note I am supervising three Americans (from Texas) for the next few weeks. They asked me on Monday if this Friday is a day off in the UK. :D

    As about forty countries around the world celebrate independence from the British Empire, having a day off on Friday would be a dangerous precedent.

    Though if we manage to get rid of Northern Ireland at some point, I'd happily make an exception. It could be paid for out of the £15-20 billion in annual savings we'd make.
    We must stand by our brothers in Orange, at least they want to stay British as the others did not
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,879
    edited July 2
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    No, because:

    a) all our government debt is in our own currency, so a big foreign currency loan wouldn't help us
    b) unlike Greece or Ireland, we print our own currency - if we want more, we can get it easily enough.
    c) the IMF's resources are already strained, and it just doesn't have the resources to bail us out - we are much too large an economy for their available resources to make a difference
    d) it's morally wrong anyway - the IMF's funds are supposed to help developing countries in temporary capital market difficulties, not developed ones with vast capital markets but lazy and incompetent governments
    e) it wouldn't do us any good anyway - what we need is sensible economic policies, and we know roughly what they are, and can formulate and implement them ourselves. That they are directly opposed to what the government's instincts are isn't, and cannot be, the IMF's problem, and they would be very reluctant to become the fall guys for Reeves's and Starmer's economic illiteracy.
    The point of bringing in the IMF is to be able to blame an outside actor for forcing the inevitable but highly unpopular corrective action.

    If you have a government with insufficient stones to do that for themselves, then it is a benefit to the country, on balance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,997
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Bloomberg:

    There’s been quite a hefty move in the pound and gilts in the last few minutes after speculation about Rachel Reeves’ future

    Sterling’s dropped 0.7%, while gilt yields have jumped, with the 30-year yield up more than 15 basis points

    At least somebody rates Rachel Reeves then.
    Fear over who may replace her. It's a sign that the crazies have the upper hand now.
    Well, people keep saying they want a vision, authenticity, principles, a narrative and a plan.

    Course I do too - so long as it accords with MY vision and principles.

    Failing this, I'm not as down as most people on a timid "technocratic" approach that tinkers around whilst not risking hyperinflation and a gilts crisis.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,920
    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    By far the strongest piece of evidence in the trial was the insulin and C-peptide levels of two of the babies.

    That is: Baby F and Baby L both showed high levels of insulin, but low levels of C-peptide: a situation which, the expert witness Dr Dewi Evans testified, could only come about through the administration of synethtic insulin.

    Now: it is possible that the tests were flawed, or that both babies had some rare condition that led to them having this imbalance. (That is certainly what Dr Shoo Lee believes, when he wrote his report.) If it were just the one baby, then I think the "rare condition" argument be a lot more persuasive. It just seems really unlikely that two babies would both suffer from an imbalance that does not seem to have been recorded in any other babies. The quality of the tests argument seems more plausible, and leads to the question about whether the tests were done at the same facility at the same time, and whether the laboratory in question has registered similar outliers in the past with other tests.
    The quality of the testing has been questioned.
    ... by Letby truthers. Appeal judges have not been swayed by the evidence put before them.
    Where's Sir Alan Bates when we need him.
    In time this might very well be seen as the right comparison for this case. For now the criminal justice system is doubling down on the existing conviction with these week’s charges.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819
    Scott_xP said:

    Badenoch lives down to expectations

    Now,now, my friend.

    You know criticism of the blessed Kemi isn't liked on here. She's our saviour, our next Prime Minister, who will lead us out of the valley of the shadow and to the sunlit uplands of somewhere or other.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,661
    edited July 2

    But as promised I have given you a thread on the alternative vote system.

    Here's Dave Cameron (PBUH) on the "superior" AV system:

    “I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong. Politics shouldn’t be some mind-bending exercise.

    “It’s about what you feel in your gut – about the values you hold dear and the beliefs you instinctively have. And I just feel it, in my gut, that AV is wrong.

    “There are three big problems with AV that strike at the heart of how I believe our democracy should work.

    “First, I believe power should lie with the people – and AV would take some of that power away.

    “Second, I believe there should be real accountability between the pledges politicians put in their manifestos and the action they take in government.

    “AV would damage that chain of accountability. And third, I believe in the principle of one person, one vote.

    “If you want a system that makes your politicians accountable.

    “If you want a system that enshrines the principle of one person, one vote.

    “You must vote on May 5th, and you must vote No to AV.

    “The biggest danger right now is that Britain sleepwalks into this second-rate system, waking up on May 6th with a voting system that damages our democracy.

    “We must not let that happen. So we’ve got to get out there and fight, and get out there and win.”


    - Dave in the Torygraph, 2011.
    That entire screed is bollocks from start to finish.

    He was naming AV but describing a PR list system. Mendacious.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,856
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Badenoch lives down to expectations

    Now,now, my friend.

    You know criticism of the blessed Kemi isn't liked on here. She's our saviour, our next Prime Minister, who will lead us out of the valley of the shadow and to the sunlit uplands of somewhere or other.
    She's not the one costing the country money.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,042
    Nigelb said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    No, because:

    a) all our government debt is in our own currency, so a big foreign currency loan wouldn't help us
    b) unlike Greece or Ireland, we print our own currency - if we want more, we can get it easily enough.
    c) the IMF's resources are already strained, and it just doesn't have the resources to bail us out - we are much too large an economy for their available resources to make a difference
    d) it's morally wrong anyway - the IMF's funds are supposed to help developing countries in temporary capital market difficulties, not developed ones with vast capital markets but lazy and incompetent governments
    e) it wouldn't do us any good anyway - what we need is sensible economic policies, and we know roughly what they are, and can formulate and implement them ourselves. That they are directly opposed to what the government's instincts are isn't, and cannot be, the IMF's problem, and they would be very reluctant to become the fall guys for Reeves's and Starmer's economic illiteracy.
    The point of bringing in the IMF is to be able to blame an outside actor for forcing the inevitable but highly unpopular corrective action.

    If you have a government with insufficient stones to do that for themselves, then it is a benefit to the country, on balance.
    Maybe they could say that we can't afford the EU divorce payment this year and bring in the European Commission to administer the medicine.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,348
    Keir's woman problem not improving much is it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,879
    Say what you want about Liz Truss but at least she sunk the pound after people had gone on their summer holidays.
    https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1940396223242158412
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,334

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
    People who scoff at those who are worried about this conviction think that they have concluded that Letby is innocent.

    It's not about that (who can know other than Letby).

    It's about the extent and quality of the evidence about her and the ability of the jurors and others to understand it and interpret it correctly.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371

    I don't want to sound callous, but if you've just had some 'personal news'/issues, then WTF are you doing sitting on the benches in PMQs in front of the cameras? Just head off to your office.

    All of which assumes that they are not lying of course.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,668
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    By contrast, Blair and Brown actually actively hated each other at points during Blair’s government .

    Neither would have had the lack of decency to put down the other like that. I suppose one could say the “clunking fist” thing was a backhanded compliment, but in the context it was delivered it showed support for the other.

    I didn't watch this. How did SKS humiliate RR? What did he say or do?
    He failed to confirm she’d keep her job twice at PMQs. Didn’t even confront the question, just ignored it.

    At best it was clumsy and thoughtless, and showed a lack of deftness. At worst he was actively signalling she was on the way out.
    For those exact same reasons I thought he weathered PMQs well. Nothing Kemi said derailed him. Because he is clumsy and thoughtless so was happy to plough on happily (if he was able to feel such an emotion), ignoring her questions.

    A female chancellor sobbing quietly behind him while he refused to assure her of her future would not have made the slightest impression on him, certainly when in PM mode and most probably when in kicking back with a beer at home mode either.
    He’s clearly on the spectrum in a bad way. Doesn’t dream. Doesn’t understand humour. Utterly tin-eared. Devoid of empathy (at least in public)

    He does what he does

    For clarity I know loads of people on the spectrum who are much nicer than him. Warm, funny, sympathetic
    I don't think it's spectrum, I think it's being inculcated by family medical circumstances from a very young age to be the grown up, to do what is necessary day by day.

    His adulthood came young and he is still to some degree the mature, precocious 10 year old playing at being a man.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,042
    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371
    Stocky said:

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
    People who scoff at those who are worried about this conviction think that they have concluded that Letby is innocent.

    It's not about that (who can know other than Letby).

    It's about the extent and quality of the evidence about her and the ability of the jurors and others to understand it and interpret it correctly.
    Quite. There seems to be a belief that questions are being asked because those asking are convinced of her innocence. Not the case for me - I simply do not know.

    There is also a weird strand of thought that the hoopla is because she is pretty blond woman, to which I would suggest only two are true.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371
    edited July 2

    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.

    Just in time to see off the King for the double?
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,420
    Biggest rise in borrowing costs for the 10 year in the last three years.

    Well done Labour and Labour MPs

    You’ve played a blinder

    https://x.com/cutmytaxuk/status/1940400190609047921?s=61
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442

    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.

    Truss' problem was she cut tax but not spending as well, if her time comes again it would likely be in Reform
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,856
    Pro_Rata said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    By contrast, Blair and Brown actually actively hated each other at points during Blair’s government .

    Neither would have had the lack of decency to put down the other like that. I suppose one could say the “clunking fist” thing was a backhanded compliment, but in the context it was delivered it showed support for the other.

    I didn't watch this. How did SKS humiliate RR? What did he say or do?
    He failed to confirm she’d keep her job twice at PMQs. Didn’t even confront the question, just ignored it.

    At best it was clumsy and thoughtless, and showed a lack of deftness. At worst he was actively signalling she was on the way out.
    For those exact same reasons I thought he weathered PMQs well. Nothing Kemi said derailed him. Because he is clumsy and thoughtless so was happy to plough on happily (if he was able to feel such an emotion), ignoring her questions.

    A female chancellor sobbing quietly behind him while he refused to assure her of her future would not have made the slightest impression on him, certainly when in PM mode and most probably when in kicking back with a beer at home mode either.
    He’s clearly on the spectrum in a bad way. Doesn’t dream. Doesn’t understand humour. Utterly tin-eared. Devoid of empathy (at least in public)

    He does what he does

    For clarity I know loads of people on the spectrum who are much nicer than him. Warm, funny, sympathetic
    I don't think it's spectrum, I think it's being inculcated by family medical circumstances from a very young age to be the grown up, to do what is necessary day by day.

    His adulthood came young and he is still to some degree the mature, precocious 10 year old playing at being a man.
    I think he's the classic case of someone who knows how to rise to the top. I've come across a few people like that at work.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,156
    edited July 2
    Scott_xP said:

    @HoskingTheTimes

    Gilts plunging, cost of govt borrowing up steeply. On Richter scale of alarm, this one day move is roughly two-thirds of a Kwarteng on the day of his mini budget

    Is that an absolute or percentage change? I think we need to settle on a definition for a Kwarteng.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,661
    edited July 2
    Taz said:

    Biggest rise in borrowing costs for the 10 year in the last three years.

    Well done Labour and Labour MPs

    You’ve played a blinder

    https://x.com/cutmytaxuk/status/1940400190609047921?s=61

    A little ironic that comment is coming from “Cutmytaxuk” though.

    Biggest guarantee of a sharp fall in gilt yields would be a big tax hike.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819

    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.

    "I'm picking up an increasing sense" - I'm sorry, what does it mean? Tea leaves, crystal ball, reading the runes?

    As for "her time will come again", well, there's the small matter of her not being an MP let alone leader of her party (Conservative, Reform, Advance UK, who knows?). Yes, she has plenty of time (she's 50) but the historical record of ex-PMs getting another chance at the top doesn't offer much hope.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,997
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    No, because:

    a) all our government debt is in our own currency, so a big foreign currency loan wouldn't help us
    b) unlike Greece or Ireland, we print our own currency - if we want more, we can get it easily enough.
    c) the IMF's resources are already strained, and it just doesn't have the resources to bail us out - we are much too large an economy for their available resources to make a difference
    d) it's morally wrong anyway - the IMF's funds are supposed to help developing countries in temporary capital market difficulties, not developed ones with vast capital markets but lazy and incompetent governments
    e) it wouldn't do us any good anyway - what we need is sensible economic policies, and we know roughly what they are, and can formulate and implement them ourselves. That they are directly opposed to what the government's instincts are isn't, and cannot be, the IMF's problem, and they would be very reluctant to become the fall guys for Reeves's and Starmer's economic illiteracy.
    We all know what constitutes sensible economic policies? Well that's a great leap forward for everyone. I'd put that in 'major scientific discovery' territory.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,879
    A Russia/Azerbaijan conflict seems to be developing, in both countries.

    Additional footage shows Russian FSB agents forcefully arresting Shahin Shikhlinsky, the head of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg, Russia
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1940365671046812027

    Two deaths in Russian custody spark rift with former ally Azerbaijan
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y00qq8nelo

    Azerbaijan rift challenges Russia's post-Soviet influence
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/azerbaijan-rift-challenges-russias-post-112302653.html
    ...Days later, Azerbaijani police raided the Baku office of Sputnik, Russia's state-run news agency, detaining three Russian journalists with the footage broadcast on pro-state TV.
    Bureau chief Igor Kartavykh and editor-in-chief Yevgeny Belousov were later ordered into four months of pre-trial detention on charges of fraud and money laundering..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,348
    HYUFD said:

    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.

    Truss' problem was she cut tax but not spending as well, if her time comes again it would likely be in Reform
    Yep, the absolute hosing of money at energy bills was what tore it. She'd have probably been fine with either just that (just about) or just the tax cuts
    Furlough and energy bailout have completely bollocksed us
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,819
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @HoskingTheTimes

    Gilts plunging, cost of govt borrowing up steeply. On Richter scale of alarm, this one day move is roughly two-thirds of a Kwarteng on the day of his mini budget

    Is that an absolute or percentage change? I think we need to settle on a definition for a Kwarteng.
    Both sterling and gilts have rallied in the past 30 minutes or so.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,156
    edited July 2

    I don't want to sound callous, but if you've just had some 'personal news'/issues, then WTF are you doing sitting on the benches in PMQs in front of the cameras? Just head off to your office.

    Because the chance of crying on television was perhaps 10%, while the chance of a minor scandal because you weren't present at PMQs for a "personal issue" was 100%.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,043

    The charges are because they failed to stop Letby, aren't they?
    Reporting is speculative - but other negligence is rumoured.

    Put it another way. If you take away all the death and incidents attributed to Letby what are you left with? If you take all the deaths and incidents after Letby was locked up, what are you left with?
    I think you're clutching at (Letby truther) straws there. The investigation that led to these charges was about whether management had failed to stop Letby.
    Experience with hospitals suggests that it is entirely possible they uncovered non-Letby negligence as a result of the investigation.

    We don’t know at this point what the charges relate to.

    We do know that more than one neo-natal unit has been found to be an utter shit show.

    It’s quite possible to have a unit that is shit plus a serial killer. Indeed, it would making spotting the killer harder.
    Its also, despite what some on here are wedded to, possible that Letby is totally innocent.
    There are thousands of people in prison. You could say the same for each and every one of them, that it is possible they are innocent. We have a process.
    State.

    We have a process state.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,879

    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.

    LOL
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,102

    I don't want to sound callous, but if you've just had some 'personal news'/issues, then WTF are you doing sitting on the benches in PMQs in front of the cameras? Just head off to your office.

    Though not appearing wouldn't have helped the speculation either.

    Unfortunately it is part of being in government. She is going to have to explain, or at least expand a little. Billions of pounds are resting on this.


    All this talk of wealth tax, by the way. Whose wealth and how?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,273

    I'm picking up an increasing sense that Liz Truss was right about Britain's malaise and what do to about it. Maybe her time will come again.

    You may be right.
    Get the bankruptcy over and done with stat.
    No point waiting around like this.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,675
    I would caveat what I am about to say by making very clear whatever Reeves has going on; I am sorry that she was upset and hope she is OK.

    But others are right that at a time when she is under particular focus and pressure, to show that level of upset in public is really not ideal, and is monumentally bad timing. I guess that if she hadn’t been there, questions would have been asked, but if it’d been briefed beforehand than at least that would have minimised some of the damage.

    As it is, at a time when there are questions about her future she is, for whatever reason, openly weeping in public and that is a terrible look.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,493
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    We’ve covered this before - wealth taxes just don’t work - we always end up creating a replacement council tax. Now that isn’t a bad idea (as a tax) but it’s not a wealth tax
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,538
    edited July 2

    I don't want to sound callous, but if you've just had some 'personal news'/issues, then WTF are you doing sitting on the benches in PMQs in front of the cameras? Just head off to your office.

    Though not appearing wouldn't have helped the speculation either.

    Unfortunately it is part of being in government. She is going to have to explain, or at least expand a little. Billions of pounds are resting on this.


    All this talk of wealth tax, by the way. Whose wealth and how?
    Non-labour voters and badly?
  • Reeves' personal life is no one else's business but her own. It was unwise of her to go into the Commons if she was feeling that emotional, though and Starmer (if he was aware of a problem) should have told her to go and have a minute.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,997
    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    rcs1000 said:

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    By far the strongest piece of evidence in the trial was the insulin and C-peptide levels of two of the babies.

    That is: Baby F and Baby L both showed high levels of insulin, but low levels of C-peptide: a situation which, the expert witness Dr Dewi Evans testified, could only come about through the administration of synethtic insulin.

    Now: it is possible that the tests were flawed, or that both babies had some rare condition that led to them having this imbalance. (That is certainly what Dr Shoo Lee believes, when he wrote his report.) If it were just the one baby, then I think the "rare condition" argument be a lot more persuasive. It just seems really unlikely that two babies would both suffer from an imbalance that does not seem to have been recorded in any other babies. The quality of the tests argument seems more plausible, and leads to the question about whether the tests were done at the same facility at the same time, and whether the laboratory in question has registered similar outliers in the past with other tests.
    The quality of the testing has been questioned.
    ... by Letby truthers. Appeal judges have not been swayed by the evidence put before them.
    Where's Sir Alan Bates when we need him.
    In time this might very well be seen as the right comparison for this case. For now the criminal justice system is doubling down on the existing conviction with these week’s charges.
    Letby framed to deflect from NHS negligence in an unholy collaboration between the legal and medical establishment?

    Am I close?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,442
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    We’ve covered this before - wealth taxes just don’t work - we always end up creating a replacement council tax. Now that isn’t a bad idea (as a tax) but it’s not a wealth tax
    Labour councils will also be allowed to whack up council tax too, having caved to its backbenchers and rejected big savings on benefits for the disabled and mentally ill by getting more into work and u turned on the WFA cut so average income pensioners will keep their WFA Labour now has no choice if it wants to balance the books. It will now have to whack up taxes even further
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,420
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    Biggest rise in borrowing costs for the 10 year in the last three years.

    Well done Labour and Labour MPs

    You’ve played a blinder

    https://x.com/cutmytaxuk/status/1940400190609047921?s=61

    A little ironic that comment is coming from “Cutmytaxuk” though.

    Biggest guarantee of a sharp fall in gilt yields would be a big tax hike.
    Are the facts in dispute 🤷‍♂️

    Perhaps not spending money we don’t have is a better solution.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,993

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
    Maybe they accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin because the evidence very clearly shows that. It takes a fair amount of chutzpah to conclude that you know better than both prosecution and defence!
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,385
    Taz said:

    Biggest rise in borrowing costs for the 10 year in the last three years.

    Well done Labour and Labour MPs

    You’ve played a blinder

    https://x.com/cutmytaxuk/status/1940400190609047921?s=61

    September and October 2022 were less than 3 years ago so that is most definitely not true.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,156
    edited July 2
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    We’ve covered this before - wealth taxes just don’t work - we always end up creating a replacement council tax. Now that isn’t a bad idea (as a tax) but it’s not a wealth tax
    Labour councils will also be allowed to whack up council tax too, having caved to its backbenchers and rejected big savings on benefits for the disabled and mentally ill by getting more into work and u turned on the WFA cut so average income pensioners will keep their WFA Labour now has no choice if it wants to balance the books. It will now have to whack up taxes even further
    Reformed council tax is the obvious route to a wealth (property) tax. My back-of-envelope is a flat 0.5% charge is a like-for-like replacement, and a 1% charge could replace IHT, CGT and Stamp Duty too.

    Pop 0.1% or so on top to take account of a fall in house prices in the top end.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,661
    I just looked at the latest 10 year yields to capture the excitement emanating from here. It’s a bit meh.

    Here’s the chart for the last 6 months up to today.



  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,997
    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    This is the dream of me and ilk. A lurch to the left with 4 years still to do stuff. I doubt it myself but it's a little more 'on' now than it was before this welfare shenanigan.
    A wealth tax would be as pointless, complicated and counterproductive as some of the sillier aspects of Brexit. A land value tax could work, but it’s a long term reform not a short term fix.

    As the usually spot on Dan Neidle has written about extensively, our problem is that we’re not raising enough from the median worker. That’s partly rates but also working population demographics. Way less than we have done historically and way less than most other countries. A 1 or 2p increase in basic rate income tax would fund more than even an ambitious wealth tax.
    That's what I'm talking about. Property. And I agree the point on mainstream rate income tax. The way it's become quasi illegal to change it any way but down is a nonsense.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371
    edited July 2

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
    Maybe they accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin because the evidence very clearly shows that. It takes a fair amount of chutzpah to conclude that you know better than both prosecution and defence!
    All evidence can be challenged, you must concede that? How many repeats, when was the equipment calibrated, is it QC passed? Where other forms of analysis considered? I'm not suggesting I know better than either, although the quality of her defence has been questioned.

    We are not going to agree on this, and thats fine.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,993

    The charges are because they failed to stop Letby, aren't they?
    Reporting is speculative - but other negligence is rumoured.

    Put it another way. If you take away all the death and incidents attributed to Letby what are you left with? If you take all the deaths and incidents after Letby was locked up, what are you left with?
    I think you're clutching at (Letby truther) straws there. The investigation that led to these charges was about whether management had failed to stop Letby.
    Experience with hospitals suggests that it is entirely possible they uncovered non-Letby negligence as a result of the investigation.

    We don’t know at this point what the charges relate to.

    We do know that more than one neo-natal unit has been found to be an utter shit show.

    It’s quite possible to have a unit that is shit plus a serial killer. Indeed, it would making spotting the killer harder.
    Its also, despite what some on here are wedded to, possible that Letby is totally innocent.
    There are thousands of people in prison. You could say the same for each and every one of them, that it is possible they are innocent. We have a process.
    State.

    We have a process state.
    And what's your point here? Are you saying we shouldn't have processes to determine if people are guilty or innocent? Do you prefer a Trumpian approach?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,504
    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    This is the dream of me and ilk. A lurch to the left with 4 years still to do stuff. I doubt it myself but it's a little more 'on' now than it was before this welfare shenanigan.
    A wealth tax would be as pointless, complicated and counterproductive as some of the sillier aspects of Brexit. A land value tax could work, but it’s a long term reform not a short term fix.

    As the usually spot on Dan Neidle has written about extensively, our problem is that we’re not raising enough from the median worker. That’s partly rates but also working population demographics. Way less than we have done historically and way less than most other countries. A 1 or 2p increase in basic rate income tax would fund more than even an ambitious wealth tax.
    That's what I'm talking about. Property. And I agree the point on mainstream rate income tax. The way it's become quasi illegal to change it any way but down is a nonsense.
    Power of round numbers. If it were 22% and 41% it'd be easy to bump up a percentage point. But 20 and 40 are such nice clean round numbers. Easier to do fiscal drag.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,348

    Reeves' personal life is no one else's business but her own. It was unwise of her to go into the Commons if she was feeling that emotional, though and Starmer (if he was aware of a problem) should have told her to go and have a minute.

    Yes. If you cry at work you'll likely be sent home. If you cry at work on live tv and you're the person in charge of the worlds 6th largest economy on the day after your governments flagship welfare policy and the PMs authority fell apart causing bond markets to react violently it is a crisis and 'its private' won't cut it.
    Its not nice to be upset, have received bad news, be facing a personal crisis etc but she's not just a character in a soap opera, shes responsible for our nations prosperity or decline. Her decisions affect pensioners warmth in winter, the fate of small businesses, family farms etc.
    Some of the nation may want to see more feels and emotion, the markets most certainly do not. And they carry far more weight with our future prospects
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,922
    Keep calm everyone.

    The women’s football Euros start tonight; look forward to that.

    Sunset time where I am now will be 2330 tonight.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,043

    The charges are because they failed to stop Letby, aren't they?
    Reporting is speculative - but other negligence is rumoured.

    Put it another way. If you take away all the death and incidents attributed to Letby what are you left with? If you take all the deaths and incidents after Letby was locked up, what are you left with?
    I think you're clutching at (Letby truther) straws there. The investigation that led to these charges was about whether management had failed to stop Letby.
    Experience with hospitals suggests that it is entirely possible they uncovered non-Letby negligence as a result of the investigation.

    We don’t know at this point what the charges relate to.

    We do know that more than one neo-natal unit has been found to be an utter shit show.

    It’s quite possible to have a unit that is shit plus a serial killer. Indeed, it would making spotting the killer harder.
    Its also, despite what some on here are wedded to, possible that Letby is totally innocent.
    There are thousands of people in prison. You could say the same for each and every one of them, that it is possible they are innocent. We have a process.
    State.

    We have a process state.
    And what's your point here? Are you saying we shouldn't have processes to determine if people are guilty or innocent? Do you prefer a Trumpian approach?
    It. Was. A. Joke.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,993

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
    Maybe they accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin because the evidence very clearly shows that. It takes a fair amount of chutzpah to conclude that you know better than both prosecution and defence!
    All evidence can be challenged, you must concede that? How many repeats, when was the equipment calibrated, is it QC passed? Where other forms of analysis considered? I'm not suggesting I know better than either, although the quality of her defence has been questioned.

    We are not going to agree on this, and thats fine.
    All evidence can be challenged, but you need a good reason to challenge it. Too many start with the assumption that Letby is innocent and then try to explain away all the evidence.

    So, sure, you can challenge evidence and challenged it has been, but two juries have sat and listened to a multitude of evidence and come to a conclusion. Multiple appeal court judges have re-examined the case and not found any problems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,042
    kinabalu said:

    TimS said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We’re heading for an IMF moment, aren’t we?

    Probably not, the new Chancellor, assuming Reeves is sacked, will just impose a massive wealth tax in the autumn
    This is the dream of me and ilk. A lurch to the left with 4 years still to do stuff. I doubt it myself but it's a little more 'on' now than it was before this welfare shenanigan.
    A wealth tax would be as pointless, complicated and counterproductive as some of the sillier aspects of Brexit. A land value tax could work, but it’s a long term reform not a short term fix.

    As the usually spot on Dan Neidle has written about extensively, our problem is that we’re not raising enough from the median worker. That’s partly rates but also working population demographics. Way less than we have done historically and way less than most other countries. A 1 or 2p increase in basic rate income tax would fund more than even an ambitious wealth tax.
    That's what I'm talking about. Property. And I agree the point on mainstream rate income tax. The way it's become quasi illegal to change it any way but down is a nonsense.
    The tax system was probably approaching optimal in the mid-90s with a basic rate of 25% and higher rate of 40%. If Labour could get back to that, the public finances would be much healthier.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,060
    HYUFD said:

    'A man has suffered a serious head injury after a sword went through the visor of his armour during a battle re-enactment in East Sussex.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-seriously-injured-after-sword-goes-through-visor-during-battle-re-enactment-at-bodiam-castle-in-east-sussex-13390856

    A bloke called Harold suffered a similar fate just along the road. You'd think they'd learn by now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,133
    "Wait for the Model Y numbers..."

    Oh

    @cnn.com‬

    JUST IN: Tesla reports another drop in quarterly sales amid fallout from Elon Musk's political activities and increased competition.

    https://bsky.app/profile/cnn.com/post/3lsydusn4ic27
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,668
    Scott_xP said:

    Badenoch lives down to expectations

    Classy statement by Stephen Flynn.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371

    There is a potentially serious issue here. If Letby is innocent (I don't know either way) then going after people who didn't stop her from murdering babies is going to be wrong.

    There are some on PB who remain fully convinced of her guilt - the trial was lengthy and the jury convicted.
    There are others (myself included) who have concerns about the trial.

    PB users, in the main, tend to be better at statistics than the general public. If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone. And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope.

    I see now that prosecuters are looking at other charges. So these will cases where babies died when Letby was present that were not thought suspiciuous until now. This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit.
    "If you have 20 neo-natal units then there is a chance that one of them will have more deaths than the average, simply on randomness alone." Letby had a historically long trial. The prosecution case did not go, "Look, this neo-natal unit has had more deaths than average. Here ends our case."

    "And that's without considering the possibility of other factors such as sub-standard care overall, poorly trained staff, a unit struggling to cope." There were a high number of unusual and unexpected deaths. These are not the sort of deaths that occur because of poor quality care or staff. There was evidence, accepted by the defence, that some babies had been deliberately killed.

    "This is dangerous - it wouldn't be the first time that a suspect has been identified and the evidence is then chosen to fit." This is conspiratorial thinking. You are dismissing new evidence on the grounds that you've already made up your mind. Surely new evidence should be welcomed if you are interested in the truth. Let that new evidence be examined.
    You are misconstruing my first point. Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual. See the case of the Dutch nurse who was convicted and later exhonerated in similar circumstances. Once a problem was identified, explanations were sought, and a case made against Letby. The construction of that case is complex, and the trial was complex and lengthy. Clearly the case was not just that there were more deaths.

    It is also the case that the exact cases included changed over time. During the time of the the 7 babies she has been convicted of killing, 10 others died. It is not the case that the 7 that died were happy, bonny babies. They were all in need of significant levels of care.

    Did the defence accept that some of the babies had been deliberately killed? I was not aware of this, and if true that is NOT the basis for the current concerns (i.e. plenty of experts believe it likely that NONE of the deaths were murder). It would also suggest that the defence was saying 'Letby wasn't the killer, someone else was" and I don't recall that.

    I am dismissing no new evidence. Let it be tried in court. But I would ask this - any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?

    I have consistently said that I do not know if she is innocent or guilty. I DO think there are significant causes for concern in the conviction.
    "Why did suspicion start - because there were more deaths than expected/usual." That's at best a very simplistic summary. There were more deaths, but there were also crucially unexpected deaths, babies who seemed fine suddenly deteriorating. Staff became suspicious of Letby early on, but Letby continued working at the hospital for a long period after those early suspicions. Management sought alternative explanations. Eventually the police were brought in. They then investigated, gathering evidence. It is wrong to imply that this was simply a high mortality rate, so they picked on Letby and constructed a case around that assumption. The new negligence charges appear to be precisely because some in management spent so long trying to excuse Letby, not accuse her.

    Babies die in neonatal units, so of course there is a process of filtering out the suspicious cases. Obviously, all the babies on such a unit require significant care, but clinical staff have a good idea of the babies who require care but are on track for a healthy outcome and those likely to die. The judgements around each case were put before the court and the jury.

    I misremembered the details. The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin, but those were two of the babies who survived and those were attempted murder charges. I don't think the defence accepted any of the murder charges were murder.

    "any baby deaths that Letby may be accused of from previous institutions - what was the recorded cause of death on the Coroners report? Were any of them seen as suspicious at the time?" Harold Shipman killed about 250 patients and about 250 of them were not seen as suspicious at the time.
    The defence accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin.

    I wonder if this it a legal approach and is to do with lack of expert knowledge coupled to a belief that a jury would likely accept evidence presented by experts? (Covoluted phrasing).

    I work with analysis of samples all the time. I am aware of the hoops needed to go through for QC purposes and I am also aware that things can go wrong. IIRC the labs in question have produced erroneous data on insulin testing when other samples have been submitted. I cannot recall the details.

    I think it an odd approach to accept that the babies were subject to an attack but that it wasn't Letby, as that would imply another killer was responsible. I would have thought challenging the insulin data would be a better approach,
    Maybe they accepted that Babies F and L had been poisoned with insulin because the evidence very clearly shows that. It takes a fair amount of chutzpah to conclude that you know better than both prosecution and defence!
    All evidence can be challenged, you must concede that? How many repeats, when was the equipment calibrated, is it QC passed? Where other forms of analysis considered? I'm not suggesting I know better than either, although the quality of her defence has been questioned.

    We are not going to agree on this, and thats fine.
    All evidence can be challenged, but you need a good reason to challenge it. Too many start with the assumption that Letby is innocent and then try to explain away all the evidence.

    So, sure, you can challenge evidence and challenged it has been, but two juries have sat and listened to a multitude of evidence and come to a conclusion. Multiple appeal court judges have re-examined the case and not found any problems.
    So a different question then, why do you think so many people have questions? Has she just become a cause celebre?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,371
    Battlebus said:

    HYUFD said:

    'A man has suffered a serious head injury after a sword went through the visor of his armour during a battle re-enactment in East Sussex.'

    https://news.sky.com/story/man-seriously-injured-after-sword-goes-through-visor-during-battle-re-enactment-at-bodiam-castle-in-east-sussex-13390856

    A bloke called Harold suffered a similar fate just along the road. You'd think they'd learn by now.
    Purge
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 335
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Badenoch lives down to expectations

    Now,now, my friend.

    You know criticism of the blessed Kemi isn't liked on here. She's our saviour, our next Prime Minister, who will lead us out of the valley of the shadow and to the sunlit uplands of somewhere or other.
    The point is we all know what Scott P thinks in advance so what does it matter?

    I hardly think pb is a Kemi fan club either!
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