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Former illegal immigrant threatens to destroy the Republican party – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,554
edited July 1 in General
Former illegal immigrant threatens to destroy the Republican party – politicalbetting.com

?Elon Musk has threatened to use his enormous wealth to topple Republican senators who vote for Donald Trump’s flagship “big, beautiful bill”https://t.co/Dp6cLx5vc4

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 30,508
    I suspect Elon Musk is paying for a lot more personal security then previously and is spending an awful time at SpaceX where due to its employment requirements ICE don't have any justification to visit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,057
    The Revolution is eating its children.

    Which one of Trump or Musk is cast as Robespierre?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,511
    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    edited July 1
    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,938

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Morning. I'm in official 'a bad poll is one you don't like' territory on this. Have Yougov been fine-tuning their methodology? Not an effing chance Labour are gaining points at the moment.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,096

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    I think there's a good chance SpaceX will be deemed a critical resource for the nation and taken off him (perhaps leaving him with Starlink...)

    It wouldn't be the first time the government have interfered in space launch companies: they forced Boeing and Lockheed to form ULA.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
    SKSICIPM
    First non Reform lead since the locals approaches, Advance UK to push Keir over the top
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    Apparently one of the provisions in the OBBB is abolishing spending limits on election advertising

    Handy if the RICHEST MAN IN THE WORLD is spending on your opponents...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Morning. I'm in official 'a bad poll is one you don't like' territory on this. Have Yougov been fine-tuning their methodology? Not an effing chance Labour are gaining points at the moment.
    Its all very steady tbf and totally in line with their polling recently. Its just noise.
    Reform are slightly off their May/Early June highs
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
    SKSICIPM
    First non Reform lead since the locals approaches, Advance UK to push Keir over the top
    Good morning, everyone.

    Can we now define Starmerite Doctrine thus: fewer benefits, more fruit?

    Or perhaps: Say No to Benefits, and Yes to Bananas!
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508
    Scott_xP said:

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    Apparently one of the provisions in the OBBB is abolishing spending limits on election advertising

    Handy if the RICHEST MAN IN THE WORLD is spending on your opponents...
    I wonder if the flaws in that provision have been identified and whether Trump will make use of the time available to remove that provision.

    Otherwise the 2026/8 elections are going to be the most expensive the world has ever seen and that includes some of the ones in ancient Rome
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,447
    Labour gaining in the polls.

    The welfare cuts are clearly popular. 😉
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Morning. I'm in official 'a bad poll is one you don't like' territory on this. Have Yougov been fine-tuning their methodology? Not an effing chance Labour are gaining points at the moment.
    Margin of Error changes...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,130

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
    SKSICIPM
    First non Reform lead since the locals approaches, Advance UK to push Keir over the top
    Good morning, everyone.

    Can we now define Starmerite Doctrine thus: fewer benefits, more fruit?

    Or perhaps: Say No to Benefits, and Yes to Bananas!
    Yes! We have no bananas

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
    SKSICIPM
    First non Reform lead since the locals approaches, Advance UK to push Keir over the top
    Good morning, everyone.

    Can we now define Starmerite Doctrine thus: fewer benefits, more fruit?

    Or perhaps: Say No to Benefits, and Yes to Bananas!
    I think
    Certified Principle Free Clusterfuckery
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    I think there's a good chance SpaceX will be deemed a critical resource for the nation and taken off him (perhaps leaving him with Starlink...)

    It wouldn't be the first time the government have interfered in space launch companies: they forced Boeing and Lockheed to form ULA.
    Why would they leave him with Starlink - that has significant military implications so easy to see that being nationalised as well.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    Apparently one of the provisions in the OBBB is abolishing spending limits on election advertising

    Handy if the RICHEST MAN IN THE WORLD is spending on your opponents...
    I wonder if the flaws in that provision have been identified and whether Trump will make use of the time available to remove that provision.

    Otherwise the 2026/8 elections are going to be the most expensive the world has ever seen and that includes some of the ones in ancient Rome
    I assume they put it in cos they thought Elon was going to be funding the other side

    And yes, the elections, if they happen, will be more expensive than a Bezos divorce
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,988

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Morning. I'm in official 'a bad poll is one you don't like' territory on this. Have Yougov been fine-tuning their methodology? Not an effing chance Labour are gaining points at the moment.
    I suspect it's only MOE but a lot of the current increments are about movements in liklihood to vote. Reform voters seem more motivated at present, but they could easily revert to apathy.

    Zack Polanski is making lots of waves on Social Media. If his insurgency wins the Green leadership, as seems likely to me, it will be 5 party politics nationally. Like the New York Mayor's race the young will turn out when they have a reason to do so.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,725
    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    Temp in my bathroom when I got up was 28C. You lucky sod.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,988
    Scott_xP said:
    Excellent news, though it seems that the PB consensus of doom and gloom has failed to pick it up while talking down Britain.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    Reasoned amendment 2 sat at 66 overnight, 40 Labour MPs plus the greens, Magic G and friends, some NI etc
    Be interesting to see the noises out of Labour this morning

    Are any former Farage freinds launching a parry today?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,927

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    The GOP is not quite yet "the state".

    Though no doubt Trump and his coterie have such ambitions.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,927

    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    Temp in my bathroom when I got up was 28C. You lucky sod.
    Open the window - it's rather cooler outside.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,596

    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    Temp in my bathroom when I got up was 28C. You lucky sod.
    So nearly as hot as Carlos Sainz's tyres and brakes on Sunday?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,174

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Morning. I'm in official 'a bad poll is one you don't like' territory on this. Have Yougov been fine-tuning their methodology? Not an effing chance Labour are gaining points at the moment.
    Labour don't need to gain any voters for their vote share to increase. Reform's voter retention is remarkably, and perhaps unsustainably, high. If that's dropped off a bit in the last few months then that could see the other parties creep up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,927
    eek said:

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    I think there's a good chance SpaceX will be deemed a critical resource for the nation and taken off him (perhaps leaving him with Starlink...)

    It wouldn't be the first time the government have interfered in space launch companies: they forced Boeing and Lockheed to form ULA.
    Why would they leave him with Starlink - that has significant military implications so easy to see that being nationalised as well.
    They will do neither.
    Blue Origin is making significant progress, and offers a much easier way of getting payback.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508
    edited July 1

    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html

    I do love the fact RB Racing have managed to create a better car than Red Bull on the basis that only Max seems to be able to drive the Red Bull car (because its 100% built for his unique driving style) and even then he's struggling on some tracks,

    Separately I wonder if Antonelli running into Max means Max can trigger his if results aren't good enough he can leave Red Bull clause.. Would be ironic if it's true and given we are 10 races into the season its going to be about now that the clause becomes active.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 31,511
    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    It feels hotter down here than yesterday morning.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,174

    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    A friend sent me a photo of Scotland's hottest day of 2025 so far.


    And to think Queensferry is only a few miles down the road.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,591

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
    Reform's incompetence in the counties they control ought to cut through, and perhaps it is. The Tories are still dead in the water...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,945
    edited July 1
    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    I see central London is forecast to reach 33C today - the last day of full blown heatwave, with my home town by the sea projected for 25C.

    Here up on the Norwegian plateau, its shirtsleeve weather already, and partly sunny, despite the patches of snow still about on the higher slopes. Some lunchtime light rain is forecast (a common pattern here, as I remember from last time) followed by a very warm and sunny evening; the town in the valley is forecast for 23C so I’d guess 19-20C up here.

    But I’m heading for the coast tomorrow, and while much of Europe has been hugely drier than average since mid spring, the Norwegian west coast so far this year has been exceptionally wet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150
    The Mad King threatens to pull the plug on his troublesome courtier...

    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1939933642752418031
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,096
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    The Revolution is eating its children.

    Which one of Trump or Musk is cast as Robespierre?

    On the subject of Citizen Robespierre, I have been listening to a fantastic podcast on the French Revolution. It’s part of a series called “Revolutions”

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/revolutions/id703889772

    of which I have completed three.

    The first covers our civil war (however people want to name it) which was good, then the American Revolution which was better and the third series is the French Revolution which has been epic.

    Absolutely jam packed with detail over 66 episodes (about 40 hours I think) and presented in a deeply knowledgeable but clear and witty way.

    The amount of times during each of the three revolutions where I did an eyebrow raise about things that had parallels to today’s world was instructive but for anyone who likes a good bit of in depth history it’s a brilliant series so far. If you only have time to listen to one then the French Revolution is an extraordinary podcast.
    The revolutions podcast is absolutely superb - I started listening to it after someone recommended it on here yonks ago. Although the Russian revolution series is rather (ahem) comprehensive at over 100 episodes.

    He's started doing some new stuff, which I have yet to listen to. Though I feel like asking him if he's ready for the second American revolution... ;)
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,096
    eek said:

    I refer the honourable PBers to my remarks at the end of the last thread.

    If Musk takes on the state, he will lose. Starting with government contracts and subsidies.

    And if Musk pays for opponents of some Congressmen, they will find other billionaire donors who want to retain their own contracts, tax cuts and subsidies.

    This is the American way.

    I think there's a good chance SpaceX will be deemed a critical resource for the nation and taken off him (perhaps leaving him with Starlink...)

    It wouldn't be the first time the government have interfered in space launch companies: they forced Boeing and Lockheed to form ULA.
    Why would they leave him with Starlink - that has significant military implications so easy to see that being nationalised as well.
    I'm not saying they will; they *might*. Because Starlink's a commercial service to ?millions? of consumers, and not as critical to the US as SpaceX's launch capability is. The government can easily claim that the launch capability is a strategic resource and that Musk's recent threats show that he is an unfit owner. They cannot really do the same with SL.

    Though decoupling the two would be interesting, considering SL relies on F9 to launch.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    eek said:

    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html

    I do love the fact RB Racing have managed to create a better car than Red Bull on the basis that only Max seems to be able to drive the Red Bull car (because its 100% built for his unique driving style) and even then he's struggling on some tracks,

    Separately I wonder if Antonelli running into Max means Max can trigger his if results aren't good enough he can leave Red Bull clause.. Would be ironic if it's true and given we are 10 races into the season its going to be about now that the clause becomes active.
    It'll never happen, but I'd really like to see how Verstappen would fare in the Racing Bull.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,632
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King threatens to pull the plug on his troublesome courtier...

    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1939933642752418031

    Popcorn!!

    Trump proposes to DOGE the King of DOGE?

    Blessed it was to be alive etc...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,566
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King threatens to pull the plug on his troublesome courtier...

    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1939933642752418031

    Morning all! I've been scanning through the outrage on Twitter - the children of the revolution don't know what to think or who to back. Yes the Donald is doing the opposite of what he said he would do - but they're blaming BIDEN for forcing him to do so. Yes the Lord Elon is threatening a new party, but doesn't that just let the Dems win forever?

    America needs someone to smash the two party system. The GOP has been corrupted and transformed into the NSDTP. The DNC still think that running the failed scandalised former bigwigs is the way to salvation. They are both terrible choices.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,013
    Eabhal said:

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Morning. I'm in official 'a bad poll is one you don't like' territory on this. Have Yougov been fine-tuning their methodology? Not an effing chance Labour are gaining points at the moment.
    Labour don't need to gain any voters for their vote share to increase. Reform's voter retention is remarkably, and perhaps unsustainably, high. If that's dropped off a bit in the last few months then that could see the other parties creep up.
    Reform need another by-election.

    That said, this week’s polling still has them averaging 28.5%.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,013
    Musk will sink without trace.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,385
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    Temp in my bathroom when I got up was 28C. You lucky sod.
    Open the window - it's rather cooler outside.
    It's 27 degrees outside now. So any chance of cooling the already hot house is gone.

    Air conditioned nationalised rail to the office it is...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,566

    eek said:

    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html

    I do love the fact RB Racing have managed to create a better car than Red Bull on the basis that only Max seems to be able to drive the Red Bull car (because its 100% built for his unique driving style) and even then he's struggling on some tracks,

    Separately I wonder if Antonelli running into Max means Max can trigger his if results aren't good enough he can leave Red Bull clause.. Would be ironic if it's true and given we are 10 races into the season its going to be about now that the clause becomes active.
    It'll never happen, but I'd really like to see how Verstappen would fare in the Racing Bull.
    The Racing Bull is drivable. The Red Bull is not.

    Back in the good old days teams would have a mid-season car change. Sometimes to the very delayed new one, sometimes to a lightly modified old one. This year's RB needs to be scrapped.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King threatens to pull the plug on his troublesome courtier...

    https://x.com/antoguerrera/status/1939933642752418031

    Morning all! I've been scanning through the outrage on Twitter - the children of the revolution don't know what to think or who to back. Yes the Donald is doing the opposite of what he said he would do - but they're blaming BIDEN for forcing him to do so. Yes the Lord Elon is threatening a new party, but doesn't that just let the Dems win forever?

    America needs someone to smash the two party system. The GOP has been corrupted and transformed into the NSDTP. The DNC still think that running the failed scandalised former bigwigs is the way to salvation. They are both terrible choices.
    If Musk wants to launch a new party to take on the establishment, he will need a charismatic leader. Man of the people. I know just the guy...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,096
    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    I wonder if his many lies are finally catching up with him.

    Though he will still have his defenders...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,945
    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,013
    FPT, Speer’s strategy for evading the gallows was very clever. To accept moral responsibility for the Nazis’ crimes, whilst denying legal responsibility. Had the judges known that he was present, at Himmler’s Posen speeches, he would have hanged.

    Most war criminals/criminals against humanity, are not at all pathological. People like Oskar Dirlewanger and Amon Goth are the outliers. There’s a general reluctance to believe that architects of atrocity are frequently people who have read Law, Classics, or French Literature at leading universities.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707

    eek said:

    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html

    I do love the fact RB Racing have managed to create a better car than Red Bull on the basis that only Max seems to be able to drive the Red Bull car (because its 100% built for his unique driving style) and even then he's struggling on some tracks,

    Separately I wonder if Antonelli running into Max means Max can trigger his if results aren't good enough he can leave Red Bull clause.. Would be ironic if it's true and given we are 10 races into the season its going to be about now that the clause becomes active.
    It'll never happen, but I'd really like to see how Verstappen would fare in the Racing Bull.
    The Racing Bull is drivable. The Red Bull is not.

    Back in the good old days teams would have a mid-season car change. Sometimes to the very delayed new one, sometimes to a lightly modified old one. This year's RB needs to be scrapped.
    To be fair, if you're going to fail it's best to do it in the last year of a regulatory period. And Red Bull has been trending slower since 2023.

    Ferrari's decision to completely alter their suspension, as per McLaren a decade ago, is looking like the most avoidable of errors. They should be competing with McLaren.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    Sounds like Labour will not be going for a three line whip today.
    I think it will pass by 20 to 30 votes unfortunately
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,679
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Excellent news, though it seems that the PB consensus of doom and gloom has failed to pick it up while talking down Britain.
    Directly contradicted by most other recent surveys, e.g.:

    https://www.retail-week.com/legal-and-regulatory/uk-business-confidence-plummets-into-ominous-territory/7048517.article
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/15/uk-business-confidence-falls-to-lowest-level-in-over-two-years-survey-shows
    https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/business-confidence-across-services-sector-falls-sharply-again-as-cost-pressures-accelerate-cbi-service-sector-survey/
    https://bmmagazine.co.uk/news/private-sector-confidence-hits-lowest-level-since-2022-as-wage-and-trade-pressures-mount/
    https://realbusiness.co.uk/business-growth-confidence-hits-4-year-low

    If business is more confident, it certainly hasn't fed into investment, which is up a pitiful 0.2% from the same period last year. Even if you think that business confidence has ticked up, any survey that says that business is more confident now than in the boom years of 2021 and 2022 when the economy was expanding by 4 or 5 per cent isn't worth anything.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,111
    Taz said:

    Labour gaining in the polls.

    The welfare cuts are clearly popular. 😉

    Or is the U-turn on the the welfare cuts popular?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,067
    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    Or trees and bushes. This lot (6) decided to have a midnight snack on my driveway.


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,111
    Ratters said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    So our early morning walk today started in mist and finished in a fine drizzle. I was wearing a light jumper, it was cool verging on cold. There were a couple of deer wandering around on the road, presumably minded to damage someone's car.

    This is a heatwave?

    Temp in my bathroom when I got up was 28C. You lucky sod.
    Open the window - it's rather cooler outside.
    It's 27 degrees outside now. So any chance of cooling the already hot house is gone.

    Air conditioned nationalised rail to the office it is...
    Back to comfortable temperatures in Yorkshire today. Thankfully.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,039
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, Speer’s strategy for evading the gallows was very clever. To accept moral responsibility for the Nazis’ crimes, whilst denying legal responsibility. Had the judges known that he was present, at Himmler’s Posen speeches, he would have hanged.

    Most war criminals/criminals against humanity, are not at all pathological. People like Oskar Dirlewanger and Amon Goth are the outliers. There’s a general reluctance to believe that architects of atrocity are frequently people who have read Law, Classics, or French Literature at leading universities.

    CS Lewis was right:

    The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" that Dickens loved to paint. It is not done even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered (moved, seconded, carried, and minuted) in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by quiet men with white collars and cut fingernails and smooth-shaven cheeks who do not need to raise their voices.

    Makes sense really. Those clean offices are distant enough from the evil that their occupants never have to fully process it. And if reality does threaten to bite, those occupants have enough education to construct a comforting pillow of words.

    (My unoriginal theory of management is that organisational failure is all but inevitable once the hierarchical layers exceed a critical value. If a manager can give instructions with no understanding of the consequences of those instructions, then functional and moral failure will occur before teatime.)
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508
    edited July 1

    eek said:

    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html

    I do love the fact RB Racing have managed to create a better car than Red Bull on the basis that only Max seems to be able to drive the Red Bull car (because its 100% built for his unique driving style) and even then he's struggling on some tracks,

    Separately I wonder if Antonelli running into Max means Max can trigger his if results aren't good enough he can leave Red Bull clause.. Would be ironic if it's true and given we are 10 races into the season its going to be about now that the clause becomes active.
    It'll never happen, but I'd really like to see how Verstappen would fare in the Racing Bull.
    The Racing Bull is drivable. The Red Bull is not.

    Back in the good old days teams would have a mid-season car change. Sometimes to the very delayed new one, sometimes to a lightly modified old one. This year's RB needs to be scrapped.
    Rumour has it that next years Mercedes and Ferrari have decent engines but the Red Bull's is bad - remember they were the only ones in favour of a mid period V10 change.

    For what I heard when Honda agreed a deal with Aston Martin a lot of the better engineers went back to the previous devil they knew..

    It's also why the Max stories are so strong now because he wants out...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,029

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    Imagine the scenes on PB if Starmer's Labour starts leading in the polls.
    It's coming, I think.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508
    edited July 1
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
    Norway bought them very early on for tax reasons that took a long term to resolve - but ended up with a scenario where an expensive Tesla was cheaper than most other options if you were buying new
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,084
    eek said:

    I suspect Elon Musk is paying for a lot more personal security then previously and is spending an awful time at SpaceX where due to its employment requirements ICE don't have any justification to visit.

    An awful time?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,566
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
    As I keep pointing out to people, much of the falling sales are a lack of Model Y this year vs last year. With the new Y now being delivered, the figures will go back to as they were.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,096

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
    As I keep pointing out to people, much of the falling sales are a lack of Model Y this year vs last year. With the new Y now being delivered, the figures will go back to as they were.
    It'll be interesting to see if you are correct or not. I really doubt you are.

    Musk has trashed his brand in much of the world, and Tesla is too intertwined with him.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,566
    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    As entertaining as the Habib party launch was, it points towards further ruptions within the pop-right. The less from the 2024 election was that an awful lot of races are close, so it only needs fragmentation of vote blocks for the right to have most votes but lose the seat to the red right...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    edited July 1
    eek said:

    eek said:

    F1: another hot tedious day, so relax with Ep27 of Undercutters. Looks back at the McLaren masterclass of Austria, a woeful day for Verstappen and Antonelli, and great results for Lawson and Bortoleto. Plus news and looking ahead to Silverstone, including the last British Grand Prix in which my amazing 29 bet on Piastri failed because McLaren buggered his strategy. Not that I'm bitter.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000715251700

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5lJnjwjUc2vm0uvUiq1ROk

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/74f148a2-9d6a-4b69-be42-d9d14563c336/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british-gp-predictions-and-preview

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/07/f1-2025-austrian-gp-review-and-british.html

    I do love the fact RB Racing have managed to create a better car than Red Bull on the basis that only Max seems to be able to drive the Red Bull car (because its 100% built for his unique driving style) and even then he's struggling on some tracks,

    Separately I wonder if Antonelli running into Max means Max can trigger his if results aren't good enough he can leave Red Bull clause.. Would be ironic if it's true and given we are 10 races into the season its going to be about now that the clause becomes active.
    It'll never happen, but I'd really like to see how Verstappen would fare in the Racing Bull.
    The Racing Bull is drivable. The Red Bull is not.

    Back in the good old days teams would have a mid-season car change. Sometimes to the very delayed new one, sometimes to a lightly modified old one. This year's RB needs to be scrapped.
    Rumour has it that next years Mercedes and Ferrari have decent engines but the Red Bull's is bad - remember they were the only ones in favour of a mid period V10 change.

    For what I heard when Honda agreed a deal with Aston Martin a lot of the better engineers went back to the previous devil they knew..

    It's also why the Max stories are so strong now because he wants out...
    I'd heard Merc was good but Ferrari perhaps also behind. Honda sound like they might be good too.

    Alpine's engineers were pissed because their engine was apparently looking promising when it was canned to use Mercedes' instead.

    Edited extra bit: I'd also heard Red Bull was seeming to be slower than rivals.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508

    eek said:

    I suspect Elon Musk is paying for a lot more personal security then previously and is spending an awful time at SpaceX where due to its employment requirements ICE don't have any justification to visit.

    An awful time?
    I meant awfully large (including nights as he has a habit of sleeping on site in offices).
  • eekeek Posts: 30,508

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
    As I keep pointing out to people, much of the falling sales are a lack of Model Y this year vs last year. With the new Y now being delivered, the figures will go back to as they were.
    And as we keep pointing out - come the end of August we will discover the truth.

    Round here there are very few 25 reg tesla's around
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,013
    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,566

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
    As I keep pointing out to people, much of the falling sales are a lack of Model Y this year vs last year. With the new Y now being delivered, the figures will go back to as they were.
    It'll be interesting to see if you are correct or not. I really doubt you are.

    Musk has trashed his brand in much of the world, and Tesla is too intertwined with him.
    So I keep reading. But in reality most car buyers are like most people - disconnected from politics.

    Norway took squadron deliveries of the new Y in May. And sales are up 213% YonY

    Australia also took the new model in May. And sales are +122% YonY

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterlyon/2025/06/08/tesla-pulls-off-miracle-recovery-in-norway-and-australia/

    UK deliveries of the new Y were happing in large numbers in June. The previous car was the best selling car in the world for 2 years running, and the new car is significantly better in practically everything way. Will take a while to recover lost ground from H1 this year where the car was off-sale*, but it will recover

    *Robert will probably try and show me a screen grab of 6 cars left in Uk inventory and claim they're still on sale. Yes, just as Jaguar are still selling the remaining dribble of cars, or you could buy a brand new Rover in 2007...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,039
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,632
    Hilarious:



    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    7h
    Over the weekend, Donald Trump threatened to primary Republicans who vote against the Big Beautiful Bill.

    Now, Elon Musk is threatening to primary Republicans who vote for the Big Beautiful Bill.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,013

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
    I’m not getting any sense of this government’s having a long-term plan.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,096
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Musk will sink without trace.

    Maybe he thinks falling out with Trump will rescue falling Tesla sales around the world?

    Although in Norway half the population seems to have one already.
    As I keep pointing out to people, much of the falling sales are a lack of Model Y this year vs last year. With the new Y now being delivered, the figures will go back to as they were.
    And as we keep pointing out - come the end of August we will discover the truth.

    Round here there are very few 25 reg tesla's around
    Also be aware of Tesla playing silly beggars by registering cars that have not been sold, e.g.:
    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/27/world/canada/tesla-canada-sales-musk.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150
    @NinaNannarITV

    The original Black Sabbath line up in rehearsals for Saturday’s last ever performance of the band.

    Quote from Ozzy Osbourne: It’s taken us 57 years to get to the Villa, we made it. Back to the Beginning.

    https://x.com/NinaNannarITV/status/1939932956509757444
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
    I’m not getting any sense of this government’s having a long-term plan.
    The plan, comrade, is simple.

    1) tax jobs
    2) cut benefits
    3) increase bananas
    4) tax North Sea exploration/production
    5) chase out non-doms with punitive taxes
    6) surprised Pikachu face at economic decline
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,029
    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Good analysis but technical edit from me - LAB are not favs on BF. They are 2.6 vs REF at 2.5.

    The 2.6 is value imo but I can't hold that view very strongly because I'm not doing it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,632

    ‪Anne Applebaum‬
    @anneapplebaum.bsky.social‬

    The president of Aix-Marseilles University is welcoming US scientific refugees.He "likened the situation to that of European academics who fled persecution by Nazi Germany both before and during World War II"

    www.politico.eu/article/meet...

    https://bsky.app/profile/anneapplebaum.bsky.social/post/3lsv6aype6c2b
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    As entertaining as the Habib party launch was, it points towards further ruptions within the pop-right. The less from the 2024 election was that an awful lot of races are close, so it only needs fragmentation of vote blocks for the right to have most votes but lose the seat to the red right...
    Agree. Much will change, but on current form, as 2029 approaches the Tories will recover some ground and Reform lose some, Labour inclined minds (and LDs in 100 target seats) will turn to what is needed to beat both Tories and Reform. Together this trend will consolidate Lab/LD, (which is best considered as a single entity, with Lab presence in 530 seats and LD presence in 100 seats).

    If this is right then the Reform/Tory presence have only two options: split the vote and both lose, or have a pact and have serious though awful prospect of winning. I exclude the possibility of a One Nation Tory revival.

    To Leon this is wishcasting. But I don't think so.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 12,100
    For a long time american cops have been promoting door cams and even giving them out free to increase surveillance abilities

    Nice to see that now communities are using them for citizen surveillance against the state. Puts a big smile on my face

    https://www.techdirt.com/2025/06/30/surveillance-against-the-state-doorbell-cam-owners-are-tipping-people-off-about-ice-raids/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    edited July 1

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    As entertaining as the Habib party launch was, it points towards further ruptions within the pop-right. The less from the 2024 election was that an awful lot of races are close, so it only needs fragmentation of vote blocks for the right to have most votes but lose the seat to the red right...
    A minor alt-Reform party picking up 2 to 3% might also be the difference in some Con-Reform fights. Rural Norfolk for example will likely be very tight fights within a few %
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,717
    God bless Elon Musk.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,150
    @chrismedlandf1.bsky.social‬

    Behind the scenes at Cadillac’s UK base as it builds an F1 infrastructure as well as an F1 car

    With three US locations too, includes some really interesting stuff from Graeme Lowdon about how the management structure is inspired by the Apollo project:

    https://bsky.app/profile/chrismedlandf1.bsky.social/post/3lsvaxiy6222y
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
    I’m not getting any sense of this government’s having a long-term plan.
    Yes. This is the big surprise. You would have thought that after the disaster of Cameron and co having no secret but comprehensive plan for Brexit if the referendum were lost they would have learned. It's fine for the plan to be secret during the election, but there has to be one and it has to command the narrative from the day you form a government. Of course it involves breaking promises. You can't both win an election and run a country without it.

    But busting the party for a few billion isn't a plan. If you are going to have 150 MPs rebelling, let it be over issues that actually change the direction of the country in good ways.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,477
    The problem for Musk is that while most rich Republican donors like him want to reduce government spending and their taxes most, most Trump voters want to reduce immigration most even if that means spending more on border patrols etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,477

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    As entertaining as the Habib party launch was, it points towards further ruptions within the pop-right. The less from the 2024 election was that an awful lot of races are close, so it only needs fragmentation of vote blocks for the right to have most votes but lose the seat to the red right...
    A minor alt-Reform party picking up 2 to 3% might also be the difference in some Con-Reform fights. Rural Norfolk for example will likely be very tight fights within a few %
    Yes Kemi will be cheering Habib on
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,707
    Scott_xP said:

    @chrismedlandf1.bsky.social‬

    Behind the scenes at Cadillac’s UK base as it builds an F1 infrastructure as well as an F1 car

    With three US locations too, includes some really interesting stuff from Graeme Lowdon about how the management structure is inspired by the Apollo project:

    https://bsky.app/profile/chrismedlandf1.bsky.social/post/3lsvaxiy6222y

    Lowdon seemed a sound fellow when he was the Manor/Marussia boss a while ago, just lacked resources.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,106
    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Are you a Labour supporter?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,477
    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Even if Labour won most seats in a hung parliament they would still need LD and maybe SNP backing to govern. The LDs and SNP have both made clear the family farm and family business tax must be scrapped for starters
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    edited July 1
    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    Reforms seat total is very tough to call. If they get 30%+ Nigel Farage is PM or largest party by a stretch imo, but their drop in seats will be precipitous from 27/28 down. There's a pretty limited range of voteshare in which Nigel Farage is leader of HMO i think, Tories will start to cannibalise potential Reform seats in the south once within a handful of points (because they are clearly disintegrating in the red wall)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,631
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Even if Labour won most seats in a hung parliament they would still need LD and maybe SNP backing to govern. The LDs and SNP have both made clear the family farm and family business tax must be scrapped for starters
    So that’s more spending
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,029
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
    I’m not getting any sense of this government’s having a long-term plan.
    They have the only politically realistic objective/plan possible. Nudge us towards higher growth whilst avoiding a sovereign debt crisis. The same plan any other party would have in government other than reality-avoiding ones.

    Of course there is more than one way to pursue this. Their choice is to increase spending and focus it towards capital projects. Funded by borrowing within market constraints and tax rises within political constraints.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,821
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
    I’m not getting any sense of this government’s having a long-term plan.
    London is filled with policy wonk institutes, staffed by people who are quite clever and formulate policy all the time in all flavours of the spectrum, and are capable, unlike MPs, of thinking simultaneously about social policy, tax, debt, priorities, costs, budgets reality and so on.

    It is odd that a fairly centrist government seems to have no coherent narrative or plan when it has so much to draw on. Working out and communicating a social democratic plan should not be that hard. It's been the only real candidate in the UK since 1945.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,381
    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    As entertaining as the Habib party launch was, it points towards further ruptions within the pop-right. The less from the 2024 election was that an awful lot of races are close, so it only needs fragmentation of vote blocks for the right to have most votes but lose the seat to the red right...
    A minor alt-Reform party picking up 2 to 3% might also be the difference in some Con-Reform fights. Rural Norfolk for example will likely be very tight fights within a few %
    Yes Kemi will be cheering Habib on
    Lowe and Habib are far less anti Tory than Reform. Lowe not joining Advance makes me think him fighting Gt Yarmouth as a Tory or on a joint Tory/Restore ticket in 2029 is quite likely, he clearly has a quite close relationship with Jenrick
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,563

    Morning all, the slight retrenchment of Reforms lead continues with YG this week

    YouGov / Sky / Times

    Here are this week’s voting intention figures

    CON 17%(nc), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 16%(nc), RefUK 26%(-1), GRN 10%(nc)

    There's a really wide spread LibDem voting intention figures: I think I've seen both an 8% and a 16% in the last few weeks.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,392
    stodge said:

    Sean_F said:

    algarkirk said:

    On recent polling; Labour are having a terrible time but are not losing further ground; Reform have peaked for now and are not gaining from Labour's woes. Four years to go.

    I think the bookies are right in making Labour favourite for most seats. Such a result almost certainly excludes a Reform/Reform led government.

    It is not easy (though possible) - to imagine Labour being worse in the next four years than they have been so far.

    Payroll/public sector vote, benefits class vote, liberal middle class vote, BAME vote/stop Farage vote/young people vote/Tory vote splitting Reform + me should see Labour home.

    Spanner in this works: the biggest by far is a Tory/Reform electoral pact.

    Bet accordingly. DYOR.

    Four years like the last 12 months, might see public patience with Labour completely exhausted.

    That said, I’d expect Reform to be winning 150-200 or so seats, next time, with Labour winning somewhat more.
    That's the unknown.

    How far will this government continue to drown after being thrown in the deep end? Or will some of its members start to do a fair approximation of swimming?

    How much will some of the longer term bets (energy, planning, Europe) be seen to have paid off by 2028/9?

    The electorate are far less patient than in the past. But with no election imminent, that doesn't matter. And most governments would be happy with second place and a single-figure deficit at this stage.
    It didn't get thrown, it jumped in. And, unlike Cameron and Osborne who laid out austerity (such as it was) from the start, Starmer and Reeves didn't bother with anything like that. Which may not have been terribly clever.
    I won't argue Starmer and Reeves seemed ill-prepared for coming into Government - perhaps they didn't brlieve the polls (some on here didn't) but we all knew the Conservatives were exhausted after 14 years running the Government - they were out of ideas and were reduced to kicking the poor old can down the poorly-maintained road.

    Across a range of issues, it wasn't that the Conservatives tried things and got them wrong - they simply gave up trying, perhaps understandable after Covid but nonetheless countries can't drift on inertia which is why you change Government but the new Government faces the same problems and has to come up with responses if not solutions.

    The problem is across a range of inter-connected and inter-dependent issues there are no easy solutions - at best, there are costly and unpopular schemes which might pay dividends a decade or more down the road but that's not how modern politics functions and so frustration sets in.

    Adult social care is an enormous issue but neither Labour nor Conservatives have felt willing or able to tackle it despite big Parliamentary majorities. That's a damning indictment of where we are or rather where we aren't.
    Until a new gov with a big majority is willing to risk self-immolation at the next GE then nothing radical or big or transformational will ever get done.

    There is always one and a half eyes on the next GE and the act of staying in power trumps actually doing anything difficult and unpopular.

    Starmer, and Blair, had majorities that would have allowed them to make sweeping changes early on and hope that the electorate would realise four years later that it was actually something good for the country and reward them but they are too cowardly.
  • TazTaz Posts: 19,447
    Scott_xP said:

    @NinaNannarITV

    The original Black Sabbath line up in rehearsals for Saturday’s last ever performance of the band.

    Quote from Ozzy Osbourne: It’s taken us 57 years to get to the Villa, we made it. Back to the Beginning.

    https://x.com/NinaNannarITV/status/1939932956509757444

    Scott_xP said:

    @NinaNannarITV

    The original Black Sabbath line up in rehearsals for Saturday’s last ever performance of the band.

    Quote from Ozzy Osbourne: It’s taken us 57 years to get to the Villa, we made it. Back to the Beginning.

    https://x.com/NinaNannarITV/status/1939932956509757444

    Shit on the Villa

    Hope it pisses down all day
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