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Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Ipsos brings bad news for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
?NEW Keir Starmer's satisfaction has fallen to -54 with @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social ?That's worse than scores EVER achieved by Johnson, May, Cameron or Blair ?Hitting this low is usually terminal for a PM e.g. Sunak, Truss and Thatcher were all shortly out of office
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Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
https://x.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1936955686174466551
The problem this Government has is that they are trying to give their supporters quick wins when they would have been better off sorting out a few things and getting the bad but unavoidable things such as an increase in employee NI or income tax out of the way first
And Rahul looks extremely well set.
Just unsurprising.
..NYT has more confirmation that Trump's decision to bomb Iran was motivated in large part by the way the Israeli strikes were "playing" on Fox News, which drove him to want some credit for it
https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/1937099961373483269
So any ideas for quick wins that will actually result in productivity growth?
Trying to normalise the fact that ever smaller numbers want to vote for the "major" parties isn't going to work.
2) Meaningful planning reform so that people can get on with building businesses/homes/shops/whatever without years or decades of planning back and forth.
That said I saw Big Nige on telly other day and he looked… old
Indeed the more you see him the more out of depth he appears
He may have 4 years to turn it round, but at the same become worse
Both Starmer and Reeves have really disappointed
There has to be a better way of ensuring that Mega Corp Plc still pays fair share without hammering British small businesses, which stops them ever being able to grow. Also, I would look at company disposal, too many British companies who do make a go of it, sell ASAP when they reach a certain size. This doesn't happen so much in Europe or the US, particularly in the US, they more often than not try and then go massive. The UK weighing by company size is masses of 5-100 people businesses and good at attracting Mega Corp, the number of UK businesses* that employ 1000s is very small proportion compared to say Germany.
* which aren't just a subsidiary of a massive international business.
Cutting expenditure and growing the economy will give more wins.
Amazing. NYT has more confirmation that Trump's decision to bomb Iran was motivated in large part by the way the Israeli strikes were "playing" on Fox News, which drove him to want some credit for it
https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/1937099961373483269
I don’t think my assertion that him being a wet fish would never win over the public was far wrong, despite Labour winning the GE. He got fewer votes than bad Corbyn after all, so it’s not surprising that he’s proven to be extremely unpopular and unable to sell his vision once in power
John Rentoul wrote about this at the weekend. Starmer is claiming that Labour’s inability to tell “our story as well as we should” is his biggest failure, Rentoul says it’s just that he has made bad decisions. As ever it’s a bit of both; someone with a sunnier disposition may have been able to sell bad news more effectively. It would be interesting to see the latest IPSOS personality ratings
Rentoul’s article
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-starmer-accidentally-admits-his-first-year-has-been-a-failure-b2774402.html
A lot of what these so-called administrators do is providing information for elected officials (councillors and MPs) as well as monitoring for central Government and other bodies.
It's surely time for land value taxation and a complete overhaul of the Council Tax system as part of a comprehensive review of how local Government is funded alongside the implementation of a social care funding model.
(It had the famous 28 point Cameron/Con lead over Labour in 2008, the peak of Cameroonism)
Thus it should show a pretty good Reform return. However given how many normal non voters they attract, how solid is that number? Brexit '16 hard or is it soft?
There are also big disincentives at £50-60k, particularly if you are single earner in the household.
Breaking: An RAF plane has flown 63 Brits and their dependents out of Israel. First UK evacuation flight since conflict with Iran broke out this month.
Passengers taken to Cyprus then back home tonight. More flights expected. Around 4,000 Brits in Israel, c. 1,000 want to go.
https://x.com/benrileysmith/status/1937163120507781560
From the pictures it looks like the UK's Chief Rabbi Ephraim Mirvis is among the dozens of Brits on board an RAF evacuation flight from Tel Aviv to Cyprus
I have been a UKIP member, Leave, Brexit and Reform voter, but in all honesty I wanted them to change the way the big two dealt with issues rather than actually be the govt. It does look like that’s not enough though, and it does need Reform to step up. I’d prefer a merger with like minded Tories I think
It would mean more if Starmer were nowhere and the Tories in some stellar position. We need to wait quite a time for that one.
Starmer/Labour should relax. They can't run faster than the bear but they, and Reform can run faster than the Tories. Labour will win a Lab v Reform contest.
A number of major airlines have canceled flights to Persian Gulf and Middle East countries over the last 48 hours.
Iberia, British Airways, Finnair, American Airlines, Air Canada, United Airlines, and Singapore Airlines have canceled flights into one or more airports.
Canceled:
Iberia IB391 to Doha
British Airways BA123 and BA127 to Doha
British Airways BA105 to Dubai
American Airlines AA120 to Doha
Air Canada AC56 to Dubai
United Airlines UA164 to Dubai
Singapore Airlines SQ494 to Dubai
@mitchprothero
between this and the bizarre 'americans in doha should shelter in place' without an actual announcement of a specific, credible threat (as is the custom of our people), I sorta wonder if the Trump admin knows something they don't want to tell us
It's not my assessment, I just thought it pertinent to yesterday's discussion.
This is the article. Though it's not that enlightening.
https://www.timeout.com/uk/news/the-vibrant-northern-city-that-is-officially-a-better-place-to-live-than-london-061925
Iran’s armed forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi says after the US attack, the army is “now free to take any action” against US interests and military, per state-run IRIB agency.
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/healthcare/article/nhs-funding-care-crisis-zg0n6clv0
"It showed that the NHS struggled to convert funding into more resources such as doctors, nurses, hospital beds or scanners, with two thirds of its budget swallowed up by staffing costs, including pensions."
"The TaxPayers’ Alliance report said the UK ranked third highest out of the 13 countries in terms of how much is spent on health as a percentage of GDP. However, it only ranked 12th by the metric of converting money into resources that can help treat patients."
Keep kidding yourself that the public sector hasn't got any jobs to cut, this just in the NHS. In other departments, local government etc... it will be just as bad. The public sector is likely in a position where it has negative incremental productivity per new employee in that output per worker hired is lower than the inefficiency/complexity they add.
You are part of the system, or were for a long time, and you can't see how broken it is. As part of that establishment your instinct is to protect it from outsiders like me who suggest it needs to be burned to the ground and rebuilt, yet I will keep going back to the same point which you have never been able to answer. Public sector employment is higher than ever, public spending is higher than ever and yet public sector output hasn't grown in 5 years. The system is simply eating up resources and giving us nothing for it.
I'm more than happy to support "meaningful planning reform" as long as there is some form of public consultation form larger developments and we see developers more interested in working with communities than making a fast buck.
The reason Consultants or Interims (another way to swerve the recruitment process) are employed is because the level of specialist knowledge and experience perceived to be required just doesn't exist among the on-site staff so it has to be bought in. It's a lazy way of dealing with a problem of recruitment and retention.
If you hire new staff at the salaries local councils can afford to offer (as distinct from a private organisation like yours which can presumably spend whatever it likes to get whoever they want), you won't get top level quality staff. The younger able staff do their time in the council, get their qualifications and experience and then go on into the private sector who can often pay double what the local council can.
As for levels of "public sector employment", Covid caused an increase which has never been reversed but that's not been seen in local Government but perhaps more in the NHS about which I know much less.
As for "output", the mantra frequently was doing more with less but that's not how it worked and we ended up doing less with less as individuals were overworked and given unrealistic deadlines. The technology wasn't the issue - in any case, how do you measure the output of a child social worker - by the number of cases?
They really are quite obsessed about Muslims.
I think that should be more like 1.5%.....requiring yet another innings for ages from Root or Stokes.
Andrew Topping
@AToppingJourno
NEW: 'No idea, genuinely': Watch as Reform economic chief gets confused over existing relationships between Notts County Council and regional leaders.
Cllr James Walker-Gurley, a new Reform cabinet member in Notts, sat down with us last week. It didn't go well.
@laurenamonaghan
https://x.com/AToppingJourno/status/1937134139473277269
Developers who work with communities in pre-submission meetings usually get their applications through with little or no fuss. It's those who drive a coach and horses through densities agreed in local plans who run into problems with the Councils themselves (let alone the public) and have to waste time and money appealing to the Government.
The staff are so overworked they sent the parent with no access the details of the new secondary school from September but hadn’t actually told the foster mum or the current primary school
Given the work and steps required to remove him / her, the leader would have to be deaf, dumb, blind and brain dead not to realise the time was up
The revolutionaries take over and most of them don't have a clue. I mentioned last week how the first Cabinet meetings in Kent and Derbyshire weren't until the end of July so for the better part of three months, these authorities have mostly been leaderless and rudderless.
I don't know the extent to which Reform councillors are able to act without having to consult their HQ first but the notion of Yusuf micro-managing hundreds of councillors is absurd.
The other side of the revolution will be the extent to which Reform councillors get "nobbled" by senior officers who will tell them not just how things do work but how things should work.
Did I hear Former President Medvedev, from Russia, casually throwing around the "N word" (Nuclear!), and saying that he and other Countries would supply Nuclear Warheads to Iran? Did he really say that or, is it just a figment of my imagination? If he did say that, and, if confirmed, please let me know, IMMEDIATELY. The "N word" should not be treated so casually. I guess that's why Putin's "THE BOSS." By the way, if anyone thinks our "hardware" was great over the weekend, far and away the strongest and best equipment we have, 20 years advanced over the pack, is our Nuclear Submarines. They are the most powerful and lethal weapons ever built, and just launched the 30 Tomahawks — All 30 hit their mark perfectly. So, in addition to our Great Fighter Pilots, thank you to the Captain and Crew!
Heathrow - find a way that doesn’t impact the M25 - although personally I would go Boris Island and reuse for housing
London City - still a mess even after expansion so a harder question - I actually think No
Local councils may be similar.
Dead, of course.
Its hard for people to keep a sense of perspective, but never forget Hamas launched this campaign hoping to destroy Israel. I have the same sympathy for the everyday Gazan as I would have had for the everyday German in Berlin in 1945.
I just don't see how this stops.
Qatar closes airspace to commercial traffic over safety concerns following US-Iran strikes, marking first Gulf state to do so
https://x.com/factal/status/1937174475969040838
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqx29w0lrx0o
That likely explains the Qatar warning. There is a big American base there.
Hopefully wiser counsel will prevail.
The only issue is how much irrecoverable damage he and Reeves do to Labour before their departures.
Max Boot on CFR call anticipates that at most the US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities sets its program back by 2-3 years, which is less than the JCPOA would have done. Notes current uncertainty about what comes next.
https://x.com/londonvinjamuri/status/1937174399016157615
Feckin Brace