Three years is a long time in politics – politicalbetting.com

System · June 14

Three years is a long time in politics – politicalbetting.com

I am reminded that at the end of May 2021 Labour were an implied 8.3% chance of winning a majority at the next general election, spoiler alert: Sir Keir Starmer won the next general election with a 174 seat majority, a lot of that was down to the Tories but it is a reminder that parties do screw up spectacularly and Reform may join that ignominious list.

Read the full story here

algarkirk · June 14

First?

Morris_Dancer · June 14

Screwing up in government brings with it real world consequences for ordinary people, though. An opposition party screwing up doesn't cause inflation to spike.

algarkirk · June 14

In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.

Stuartinromford · June 14

algarkirk said:
First?

Someone will be in 2028/9. But who?

JosiasJessop · June 14

I agree with the threader. There's a long time before the next GE.

But I'd also add the chances of unexpected events intervening. I mean, it's been quiet enough for the last decade, hasn't it; there have been no pandemics or European wars. But something could happen that changes things considerably...

In that manner, I'd point out that Russia is a weakness for the Farage Party.

Morris_Dancer · June 14

Utterly OT: just finished Chris Wooding's The Ember Blade. Rather liked it, although I've got to admit I think the Tales of the Ketty Jay are better. They might just be the perfect short series.

Taz · June 14

Rugby Premiership rebrands as ‘The Prem’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/articles/c4gr1l1nk72o

malcolmg · June 14

Taz said:
Rugby Premiership rebrands as ‘The Prem’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/articles/c4gr1l1nk72o

Oh Dear

theProle · June 14

JosiasJessop said:

theProle said:

LostPassword said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Captain Steeeve believes it might have been a mix-up between the gear and flaps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7EZkungFEE
That makes sense: it explains why the (a) the gear wasn't retracted and (b) the flaps don't appear to have been fully extended. Basically: the pilot retracted the wrong thing, then compounded the error by continuing to pull back on the yoke when he should have pushed the nose down.
It's almost pointless to speculate at the moment - we don't really have the information.

But it's important to remember two things:

*) It is rare for there to be a single cause for an accident. There are often causal factors: e.g. if the pilot was drunk, why did no-one notice the pilot was drunk? If the wrong bolt was used in maintenance, why was it used? Why was the work signed off? Was the work signed off? If the pilot flipped the wrong switch, what human factors caused him to flip the wrong switch?

*) Everyone wants to blame the pilots. For the airlines, it is easier to blame the pilots than maintenance. For Airbus or Boeing, blaming the pilots is great. For the engine manufacturers, ditto. Therefore people in the industry tend to look at all the causal factors and pick the ones that blame human error, and especially the pilots.

So if the pilots did make mistakes, why did they do so? were there other problems on the flightdeck that contributed to the mistake?

But putting my hat of speculation on: I think they suffered from a loss of power. Something caused the plane to lose power, and any changes to procedure on flaps and landing gear might have been because they were working other problems for those few seconds.

But we'll know more in a few weeks.
There's a couple of things we know.
1. The plane initially had enough power to take-off and climb a bit - and then didn't.
2. The sole survivor from the plane states that shortly after takeoff there was a bang, and then the plane began to descend.

The first suggests that something changed after takeoff to bring the plane down. The second suggests that the something was mechanical.

But, yes, we'll know soon.
1) is counterintuitively not necessarily true. Aircraft have very little drag during the initial phase of their takeoff run. It's only when you reach takeoff speed and rotate that the drag becomes anything like normal.
It's therefore quite possible to get an aircraft off the ground without sufficient engine power to keep it in the air. The flight path if this happens is quite like the accident flight - you go bombing down the runway, rotate, takeoff, the aircraft climbs but slows rapidly, the pilot sticks the nose down to avoid a stall, and floats into the deck shortly after.

I don't think it's what happened here, but with a potentially overweight aircraft and engines heavily derated because of the air temperature it's certainly not outside the bounds of possibilities.
One YouTuber went into this. If I undestood it correctly, when the plane is accelerating down the runway, it has a relatively low cross-section. So whilst there is drag from the wheels, there is less airframe drag. When it goes airborne, it goes into ground effect, which helps keep it up. But the nose up attitude dramatically increases airframe drag. And when it lifts out of ground effect, that helpful lift is removed.

So if a plane has just enough power, then it can take off, fly for a bit, but not have enough power to actually climb.

The weather can also have a significant effect. From the sounds of it the plane wasn't massively heavy - it did not have a full fuel load - but it was very hot. And planes find it harder to take off in hot weather.

https://worldaviationato.com/en/airplane-ground-effect/

Therefore it is feasible that, for some reason, perhaps mechanical or setup, the engines did not have enough thrust, or lost thrust just before liftoff. Too late to cancel take off. Which may be why the alleged Mayday call happened so early.

That's about it.

It seems unlikely (and therefore goes against the option that they were just overweight in very sub optimal conditions) they had a working donk for very long once airborne, if you find yourself floating round and struggling to get out of ground effect, stowing the gear is usually pretty high on your priority list.

Stuartinromford · June 14

JosiasJessop said:
I agree with the threader. There's a long time before the next GE.

But I'd also add the chances of unexpected events intervening. I mean, it's been quiet enough for the last decade, hasn't it; there have been no pandemics or European wars. But something could happen that changes things considerably...

In that manner, I'd point out that Russia is a weakness for the Farage Party.

Going a bit Rumsfeld, there are unknown unknowns (COVID, say), plausible unknowns (Russia making life awful for its neighbours) and all-too-knowable unknowns (BoJo and Truss being terrible PMs in ways that the public couldn't ignore).

Pulpstar · June 14

Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

DavidL · June 14

algarkirk said:
In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.

I am very confident that Labour will be the largest party in the next Parliament. Whether they will have an overall majority is a much finer proposition. I would say probably yes, but I would be a lot less confident about it, certainly less confident than the market seems to be.

Casino_Royale · June 14

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

DavidL · June 14

Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

Eabhal · June 14

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

'ave at it, boys. - DavidL as PM.

Mexicanpete · June 14

Isn't it calm and composed on here today? It's like a council estate after the troublesome family have been sent down for benefit fraud. Although with Starmer reducing minimum sentence-served criteria they'll be back before we know it.

Eabhal · June 14

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:
In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.
I am very confident that Labour will be the largest party in the next Parliament. Whether they will have an overall majority is a much finer proposition. I would say probably yes, but I would be a lot less confident about it, certainly less confident than the market seems to be.

I know it's only one event, but the Hamilton by-election may be instructive. Not much sign of a lefty coalescence.

DavidL · June 14

Meanwhile, this post yesterday lunch time when Starc was going past 50 in the last wicket partnership has not aged well:

"And its still going. Australia were favourites anyway but this a match winning partnership beyond a doubt. Finished now but surely Australia out of sight."

Another inept forecast in the cricket but that is the charm of the game. Its never over until its over. And it still isn't as the South Africans will be very much aware.

Stuartinromford · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Jenrick doesn't either, does he?

Who should we be looking for, and how do they overcome the "I'll be gone before it goes wrong" selfish pensioner lobby and the "sell Britain off for parts" vulture capitalist faction?

DavidL · June 14

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:
In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.
I am very confident that Labour will be the largest party in the next Parliament. Whether they will have an overall majority is a much finer proposition. I would say probably yes, but I would be a lot less confident about it, certainly less confident than the market seems to be.
I know it's only one event, but the Hamilton by-election may be instructive. Not much sign of a lefty coalescence.

At a time when the national party is getting brick bats and the Scottish party struggles to find anything to say with a candidate who was not exactly comfortable with the media that was an excellent result for Labour. It is hardly surprising that at least some SNP MSPs are allegedly conspiring to challenge the leadership. Something genuinely important (their salaries and expenses) is on the line here.

HYUFD · June 14

Another Labour majority is unlikely but a Labour minority government propped up by the LDs is certainly still possible

DavidL · June 14

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
'ave at it, boys. - DavidL as PM.

You're too kind but who would prosecute all these rapes? Off to Inverness on Monday for another one.

HYUFD · June 14

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Jenrick doesn't either, does he?

Who should we be looking for, and how do they overcome the "I'll be gone before it goes wrong" selfish pensioner lobby and the "sell Britain off for parts" vulture capitalist faction?

On that basis, Mel Stride

Roger · June 14

I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

algarkirk · June 14

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:
In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.
I am very confident that Labour will be the largest party in the next Parliament. Whether they will have an overall majority is a much finer proposition. I would say probably yes, but I would be a lot less confident about it, certainly less confident than the market seems to be.

Yes, I suspect that the formula of 'Labour to form next government with or without the help of others' would actually be very clearly odds on. Under all the smoke and mirrors it's not easy to remember there is a very high chance of at least 9/10 years of Labour/Labour led government.

Luckyguy1983 · June 14

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Jenrick doesn't either, does he?

Who should we be looking for, and how do they overcome the "I'll be gone before it goes wrong" selfish pensioner lobby and the "sell Britain off for parts" vulture capitalist faction?
On that basis, Mel Stride

Sadly Mel Stride doesn't do economics either.

Or politics for that matter.

OnlyLivingBoy · June 14

Mexicanpete said:
Isn't it calm and composed on here today? It's like a council estate after the troublesome family have been sent down for benefit fraud. Although with Starmer reducing minimum sentence-served criteria they'll be back before we know it.

And no doubt eager to set fire to the home of that nice Filipino nurse who moved onto the estate last year.

Eabhal · June 14

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
'ave at it, boys. - DavidL as PM.
You're too kind but who would prosecute all these rapes? Off to Inverness on Monday for another one.

Watch out for the wrong-way tourists on the A9. That time of year again.

Eabhal · June 14

Weekend entertainment: https://www.lightningmaps.org/#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;ts=0;

Sunil_Prasannan · June 14

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Jenrick doesn't either, does he?

Who should we be looking for, and how do they overcome the "I'll be gone before it goes wrong" selfish pensioner lobby and the "sell Britain off for parts" vulture capitalist faction?
On that basis, Mel Stride

Ain't nothin' gonna break Mel Stride
Nobody gonna slow me down
Oh no, I gotta keep on moving

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJJj1dqA9Mg

wooliedyed · June 14

Good morning.
The 'Reform to win' narrative is on the back of a couple of months of good polling - SDP 81 styley. All the MRPs prior to April showed a variety of hung parliaments with Ref, Con, Lab all getting a chunk of seats and LDs holding on to a chunk of their gains.
Local election results suggest there will be a great number of very closely fought seats won on about 30% of the vote. The parties that best identify their 150 to 200 best seats and get the vote out will do just fine, even on 20% of the national vote (if we go into the election with 5 parties on 8% plus, all under 30 like now).
Id not want to even think about how it might look until we see where they are all polling best in councils and VI nearer the time.

Stark_Dawning · June 14

So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.

algarkirk · June 14

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

FWIW I think the current situation in England (S,W and NI different of course) is: Tories are not worth thinking about; LDs are steady and not going to break out nationally; therefore Labour won't face a challenge from LDs; Labour are the safety choice though dull; over 60% of voters are not going to vote Reform as things stand; Reform have peaked for now; Labour are engaged in a marathon; Reform don't have a team. Result: Labour much better placed than they look to be.

DavidL · June 14

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
'ave at it, boys. - DavidL as PM.
You're too kind but who would prosecute all these rapes? Off to Inverness on Monday for another one.
Watch out for the wrong-way tourists on the A9. That time of year again.

Yes I've had that experience, its quite frightening.

wooliedyed · June 14

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise

algarkirk · June 14

Stark_Dawning said:
So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.

Yes. It's a very interesting sign of Reform not being serious, not having a team and having a certain contempt for the public.

Theuniondivvie · June 14

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Mexicanpete said:
Isn't it calm and composed on here today? It's like a council estate after the troublesome family have been sent down for benefit fraud. Although with Starmer reducing minimum sentence-served criteria they'll be back before we know it.
And no doubt eager to set fire to the home of that nice Filipino nurse who moved onto the estate last year.

She might get a pass if she's 'hot' (not set on fire hot naturally).

Northern_Al · June 14

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, this post yesterday lunch time when Starc was going past 50 in the last wicket partnership has not aged well:

"And its still going. Australia were favourites anyway but this a match winning partnership beyond a doubt. Finished now but surely Australia out of sight."

Another inept forecast in the cricket but that is the charm of the game. Its never over until its over. And it still isn't as the South Africans will be very much aware.

You may have missed my warning reply to your post yesterday lunchtime:
Beyond a doubt? I'm not sure. 281 is a challenging target, but the pitch and the weather have become increasingly docile. You never know.

DavidL · June 14

Morris_Dancer said:
Utterly OT: just finished Chris Wooding's The Ember Blade. Rather liked it, although I've got to admit I think the Tales of the Ketty Jay are better. They might just be the perfect short series.

Sounds worth a look. I have £10 from coffee credits to spend in Waterstones. I quite liked this part of his review:

"He also learned not so long ago that his family tree can be traced back to John Milton, author of Paradise Lost, which has no bearing on him whatsoever but it’s kind of interesting anyway."

Morris_Dancer · June 14

Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

DavidL · June 14

Northern_Al said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, this post yesterday lunch time when Starc was going past 50 in the last wicket partnership has not aged well:

"And its still going. Australia were favourites anyway but this a match winning partnership beyond a doubt. Finished now but surely Australia out of sight."

Another inept forecast in the cricket but that is the charm of the game. Its never over until its over. And it still isn't as the South Africans will be very much aware.
You may have missed my warning reply to your post yesterday lunchtime:
Beyond a doubt? I'm not sure. 281 is a challenging target, but the pitch and the weather have become increasingly docile. You never know.

Nobody likes a smart alec you know.

Roger · June 14

Mexicanpete said:
Isn't it calm and composed on here today? It's like a council estate after the troublesome family have been sent down for benefit fraud. Although with Starmer reducing minimum sentence-served criteria they'll be back before we know it.

The armchair generals were out in force that's for sure. I flicked through some of them this morning. It was excruciating!

DavidL · June 14

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

I was quite impressed with the excuse given for trying to throttle him. I was channelling your grandmother but then some malevolent ghost intervened. As excuses go it has high novelty value.

Northern_Al · June 14

DavidL said:

Northern_Al said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, this post yesterday lunch time when Starc was going past 50 in the last wicket partnership has not aged well:

"And its still going. Australia were favourites anyway but this a match winning partnership beyond a doubt. Finished now but surely Australia out of sight."

Another inept forecast in the cricket but that is the charm of the game. Its never over until its over. And it still isn't as the South Africans will be very much aware.
You may have missed my warning reply to your post yesterday lunchtime:
Beyond a doubt? I'm not sure. 281 is a challenging target, but the pitch and the weather have become increasingly docile. You never know.
Nobody likes a smart alec you know.

Fair. Especially as, though tempted to back SA, I didn't put any money where my mouth was.

FF43 · June 14

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

Tories being cooked likely means a Reform government IMHO. The vagaries of FPTP.

Stuartinromford · June 14

Stark_Dawning said:
So let me get this right. Reform, whose adherents usually bang on about the supremacy of the 'Judeo-Christian tradition', are now being chaired by an occultist.

On-brand, though;

👻 Good news for Reform's new chairman
Dr David Bull and former presenter of 'Most Haunted': our new polling finds that he's in tune with a good chunk of his party with Reform UK supporters more likely to believe in ghosts than the public as a whole

https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3lrigzzgsdk2c

TheScreamingEagles · June 14

I am going to ask you all to hold your discussions on Dr David Bull until this afternoon.

I have an afternoon thread dedicated to him.

Dura_Ace · June 14

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

Watch the interview with Madeley/Partridge. Bull is a fucking lunatic and it's a shame that Derek Acora didn't finish the job during the strangling incident.

MattW · June 14

theProle said:

JosiasJessop said:

theProle said:

LostPassword said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Captain Steeeve believes it might have been a mix-up between the gear and flaps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7EZkungFEE
That makes sense: it explains why the (a) the gear wasn't retracted and (b) the flaps don't appear to have been fully extended. Basically: the pilot retracted the wrong thing, then compounded the error by continuing to pull back on the yoke when he should have pushed the nose down.
It's almost pointless to speculate at the moment - we don't really have the information.

But it's important to remember two things:

*) It is rare for there to be a single cause for an accident. There are often causal factors: e.g. if the pilot was drunk, why did no-one notice the pilot was drunk? If the wrong bolt was used in maintenance, why was it used? Why was the work signed off? Was the work signed off? If the pilot flipped the wrong switch, what human factors caused him to flip the wrong switch?

*) Everyone wants to blame the pilots. For the airlines, it is easier to blame the pilots than maintenance. For Airbus or Boeing, blaming the pilots is great. For the engine manufacturers, ditto. Therefore people in the industry tend to look at all the causal factors and pick the ones that blame human error, and especially the pilots.

So if the pilots did make mistakes, why did they do so? were there other problems on the flightdeck that contributed to the mistake?

But putting my hat of speculation on: I think they suffered from a loss of power. Something caused the plane to lose power, and any changes to procedure on flaps and landing gear might have been because they were working other problems for those few seconds.

But we'll know more in a few weeks.
There's a couple of things we know.
1. The plane initially had enough power to take-off and climb a bit - and then didn't.
2. The sole survivor from the plane states that shortly after takeoff there was a bang, and then the plane began to descend.

The first suggests that something changed after takeoff to bring the plane down. The second suggests that the something was mechanical.

But, yes, we'll know soon.
1) is counterintuitively not necessarily true. Aircraft have very little drag during the initial phase of their takeoff run. It's only when you reach takeoff speed and rotate that the drag becomes anything like normal.
It's therefore quite possible to get an aircraft off the ground without sufficient engine power to keep it in the air. The flight path if this happens is quite like the accident flight - you go bombing down the runway, rotate, takeoff, the aircraft climbs but slows rapidly, the pilot sticks the nose down to avoid a stall, and floats into the deck shortly after.

I don't think it's what happened here, but with a potentially overweight aircraft and engines heavily derated because of the air temperature it's certainly not outside the bounds of possibilities.
One YouTuber went into this. If I undestood it correctly, when the plane is accelerating down the runway, it has a relatively low cross-section. So whilst there is drag from the wheels, there is less airframe drag. When it goes airborne, it goes into ground effect, which helps keep it up. But the nose up attitude dramatically increases airframe drag. And when it lifts out of ground effect, that helpful lift is removed.

So if a plane has just enough power, then it can take off, fly for a bit, but not have enough power to actually climb.

The weather can also have a significant effect. From the sounds of it the plane wasn't massively heavy - it did not have a full fuel load - but it was very hot. And planes find it harder to take off in hot weather.

https://worldaviationato.com/en/airplane-ground-effect/

Therefore it is feasible that, for some reason, perhaps mechanical or setup, the engines did not have enough thrust, or lost thrust just before liftoff. Too late to cancel take off. Which may be why the alleged Mayday call happened so early.
That's about it.

It seems unlikely (and therefore goes against the option that they were just overweight in very sub optimal conditions) they had a working donk for very long once airborne, if you find yourself floating round and struggling to get out of ground effect, stowing the gear is usually pretty high on your priority list.

I need to be educated as to the nature of a "donk".

I'm reminded of things like Hrungs or thingamadoodles.

AFAICS there are only 3 places called Donk, and they are all in Belgium.

Dura_Ace · June 14

The header is bullshit. I've cycled with a Chalfont the size, colour and texture of a monkey's fist. Honestly, not that bad with loads crème de chamois. All the nerve endings down there are dead after about 200,000km anyway.

Casino_Royale · June 14

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Jenrick doesn't either, does he?

Who should we be looking for, and how do they overcome the "I'll be gone before it goes wrong" selfish pensioner lobby and the "sell Britain off for parts" vulture capitalist faction?

Jenrick does a bit, and Hunt would definitely.

The Conservatives need to target a new voting coalition.

They did it from 2005, and they need to do it now.

Sean_F · June 14

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:
In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.
I am very confident that Labour will be the largest party in the next Parliament. Whether they will have an overall majority is a much finer proposition. I would say probably yes, but I would be a lot less confident about it, certainly less confident than the market seems to be.

Reform would be a shambles in government.

Their ideal result would be 200 or so seats, and establishing themselves as the Opposition.

Big_G_NorthWales · June 14

TheScreamingEagles said:
I am going to ask you all to hold your discussions on Dr David Bull until this afternoon.

I have an afternoon thread dedicated to him.

Who ?

Taz · June 14

Mexicanpete said:
Isn't it calm and composed on here today? It's like a council estate after the troublesome family have been sent down for benefit fraud. Although with Starmer reducing minimum sentence-served criteria they'll be back before we know it.

What did I miss ?

wooliedyed · June 14

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Tories being cooked likely means a Reform government IMHO. The vagaries of FPTP.

I think the Tories being 'cooked' is a vastly overdone trope. Its based on two months polling a year after a heavy defeat. Way too early to write them off as largest Party or official opposition, although i think Majority can safely be parked until 2034 etc

Taz · June 14

You’d have thought CND would be pleased Israel is taking them literally. But no.

https://x.com/cnduk/status/1933441829350916332?s=61

geoffw · June 14

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?

You accusing pollsters of herding there, Roger? Brave ...

Theuniondivvie · June 14

After Bibi’s mostly peaceful smiting of the Amalekites, more evidence that he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

Congressman Randy Fine
@RepFine
I want to congratulate @Israel on its mostly peaceful bombing of Iran.

https://x.com/repfine/status/1933540737519362300?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

Theuniondivvie · June 14

Newsom increasingly looking like that bloke from DS9.

https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/1933698631141634267

BartholomewRoberts · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.

Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

algarkirk · June 14

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of unicorns on Mars. But I very much doubt if it's actually true. People are holistic. This is very inconvenient, but in ordinary life we tend to think so, and act accordingly.

Roger · June 14

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.

I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog they might see the embryo of another Atlee

Taz · June 14

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

Don’t forget the fiscally inept Lib Dem’s too. They want to spunk billions, metaphorically speaking, on the WASPI women too. They don’t deserve a penny.

The Tories need to rediscover fiscal discipline, and so do Labour.

The problem with SKS, and I do think he’s improved greatly this year, is he folds under a small amount of pressure. Also his comms is weak.

Casino_Royale · June 14

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:
In the betting, Labour majority is preferred to Reform majority. The markets are right, the Labour doomsters wrong, I think.
I am very confident that Labour will be the largest party in the next Parliament. Whether they will have an overall majority is a much finer proposition. I would say probably yes, but I would be a lot less confident about it, certainly less confident than the market seems to be.
Reform would be a shambles in government.

Their ideal result would be 200 or so seats, and establishing themselves as the Opposition.

Labour will win against Reform, I think, even though "everyone" hates Labour because they'll have a client vote - it's being bought up nicely, at the moment - and Reform will look incredible as a prospective HMG.

Events that could change that?

An escalating major migration crisis, a big war or a sovereign debt crisis.

Any of those - or possibly all three - could occur in the next 3 years.

FrancisUrquhart · June 14

Taz said:
Rugby Premiership rebrands as ‘The Prem’

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/articles/c4gr1l1nk72o

As a regular goer to "the Prem" the problem isn't the branding it is the clash with the vastly extended Internationals. It used to be just be the 5 Nations over the winter, now you get the Autumn International Series and then the 6 Nations. Inbetween that you get the domestic cup and the European competitions. Given all this stop start nature for the league it is hard to build excitement. On top of that the big teams rarely have their best 15 out on the field through a combination of internationals, rest before internationals, rest after internationals, and injuries due to internationals.

You only have to look at the last game of the regular season. 3 of the 4 playoff spots were up for grabs among 5 teams. Nobody put out their full strength team. Can you imagine final day of the EPL and teams going for Champions League spots playing their second string team.

HYUFD · June 14

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

The only time spending has fallen as a percentage of GDP this century was under the Conservative and LD coalition government of 2010 to 2015

Big_G_NorthWales · June 14

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise

Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

FrancisUrquhart · June 14

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog they might see the embryo of another Atlee

Looks like Labour are doomed then....

Learning on the job...checks notes for this week...Job numbers down...Economy down...Reeves is going to have raise taxes again and then have to try so BS about Trump or something, thus breaking her promises. Minister tells a massive porkie on QT and it blows up in his face.

Sean_F · June 14

algarkirk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of unicorns on Mars. But I very much doubt if it's actually true. People are holistic. This is very inconvenient, but in ordinary life we tend to think so, and act accordingly.

People can be competent in one field, and ludicrously inept in others. Plenty of people hold beliefs that are outlandish.

wooliedyed · June 14

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee

Not Flash, Just Gordon
He'll be 'getting on with the job' next.

Casino_Royale · June 14

wooliedyed said:

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Tories being cooked likely means a Reform government IMHO. The vagaries of FPTP.
I think the Tories being 'cooked' is a vastly overdone trope. Its based on two months polling a year after a heavy defeat. Way too early to write them off as largest Party or official opposition, although i think Majority can safely be parked until 2034 etc

Yes, I agree. Reform could fade into the teens and the Tories advance to the high twenties in, say, 2027, if they change leader, get the strategy right and Labour totally stagflates the economy and fails to deliver.

That could get them up to near 200 seats again in GE2029.

Chances?

15%

Big_G_NorthWales · June 14

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:

Eabhal said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
'ave at it, boys. - DavidL as PM.
You're too kind but who would prosecute all these rapes? Off to Inverness on Monday for another one.
Watch out for the wrong-way tourists on the A9. That time of year again.
Yes I've had that experience, its quite frightening.

And so have I

SandyRentool · June 14

MattW said:

theProle said:

JosiasJessop said:

theProle said:

LostPassword said:

JosiasJessop said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:
Captain Steeeve believes it might have been a mix-up between the gear and flaps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7EZkungFEE
That makes sense: it explains why the (a) the gear wasn't retracted and (b) the flaps don't appear to have been fully extended. Basically: the pilot retracted the wrong thing, then compounded the error by continuing to pull back on the yoke when he should have pushed the nose down.
It's almost pointless to speculate at the moment - we don't really have the information.

But it's important to remember two things:

*) It is rare for there to be a single cause for an accident. There are often causal factors: e.g. if the pilot was drunk, why did no-one notice the pilot was drunk? If the wrong bolt was used in maintenance, why was it used? Why was the work signed off? Was the work signed off? If the pilot flipped the wrong switch, what human factors caused him to flip the wrong switch?

*) Everyone wants to blame the pilots. For the airlines, it is easier to blame the pilots than maintenance. For Airbus or Boeing, blaming the pilots is great. For the engine manufacturers, ditto. Therefore people in the industry tend to look at all the causal factors and pick the ones that blame human error, and especially the pilots.

So if the pilots did make mistakes, why did they do so? were there other problems on the flightdeck that contributed to the mistake?

But putting my hat of speculation on: I think they suffered from a loss of power. Something caused the plane to lose power, and any changes to procedure on flaps and landing gear might have been because they were working other problems for those few seconds.

But we'll know more in a few weeks.
There's a couple of things we know.
1. The plane initially had enough power to take-off and climb a bit - and then didn't.
2. The sole survivor from the plane states that shortly after takeoff there was a bang, and then the plane began to descend.

The first suggests that something changed after takeoff to bring the plane down. The second suggests that the something was mechanical.

But, yes, we'll know soon.
1) is counterintuitively not necessarily true. Aircraft have very little drag during the initial phase of their takeoff run. It's only when you reach takeoff speed and rotate that the drag becomes anything like normal.
It's therefore quite possible to get an aircraft off the ground without sufficient engine power to keep it in the air. The flight path if this happens is quite like the accident flight - you go bombing down the runway, rotate, takeoff, the aircraft climbs but slows rapidly, the pilot sticks the nose down to avoid a stall, and floats into the deck shortly after.

I don't think it's what happened here, but with a potentially overweight aircraft and engines heavily derated because of the air temperature it's certainly not outside the bounds of possibilities.
One YouTuber went into this. If I undestood it correctly, when the plane is accelerating down the runway, it has a relatively low cross-section. So whilst there is drag from the wheels, there is less airframe drag. When it goes airborne, it goes into ground effect, which helps keep it up. But the nose up attitude dramatically increases airframe drag. And when it lifts out of ground effect, that helpful lift is removed.

So if a plane has just enough power, then it can take off, fly for a bit, but not have enough power to actually climb.

The weather can also have a significant effect. From the sounds of it the plane wasn't massively heavy - it did not have a full fuel load - but it was very hot. And planes find it harder to take off in hot weather.

https://worldaviationato.com/en/airplane-ground-effect/

Therefore it is feasible that, for some reason, perhaps mechanical or setup, the engines did not have enough thrust, or lost thrust just before liftoff. Too late to cancel take off. Which may be why the alleged Mayday call happened so early.
That's about it.

It seems unlikely (and therefore goes against the option that they were just overweight in very sub optimal conditions) they had a working donk for very long once airborne, if you find yourself floating round and struggling to get out of ground effect, stowing the gear is usually pretty high on your priority list.
I need to be educated as to the nature of a "donk".

I'm reminded of things like Hrungs or thingamadoodles.

AFAICS there are only 3 places called Donk, and they are all in Belgium.

A donk is an engine.

Whether that implies that engineers can be referred to as donkeys is not a question that I am prepared to answer.

Taz · June 14

An interesting tweet from the Iranian Army.

The phrase I used yesterday, all piss and wind, leaps to mind.

https://x.com/i__military/status/1933578912166261151?s=61

FrancisUrquhart · June 14

Sean_F said:

algarkirk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of unicorns on Mars. But I very much doubt if it's actually true. People are holistic. This is very inconvenient, but in ordinary life we tend to think so, and act accordingly.
People can be competent in one field, and ludicrously inept in others. Plenty of people hold beliefs that are outlandish.

Over the years I have had to deal with a lot of world class academics...I wouldn't trust them most of them to boil the kettle, let along anything else outside of their field of expertise. It is why most of are in academia rather than making squillions running a start-up.

Casino_Royale · June 14

Sean_F said:

algarkirk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of unicorns on Mars. But I very much doubt if it's actually true. People are holistic. This is very inconvenient, but in ordinary life we tend to think so, and act accordingly.
People can be competent in one field, and ludicrously inept in others. Plenty of people hold beliefs that are outlandish.

I'm often astonished by how many people, as adults, genuinely and sincerely hold beliefs that most of us shed as a child.

Ghosts, dragon energy, and voodoo aren't much different from Father Christmas or the Tooth Fairy.

algarkirk · June 14

Roger said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
I also think labour are learning on the job. They're certainly looking more competent than they did and Starmer is close to looking like a Prime Minister. There is something unflash about him which seems to suit the zeitgeist at the moment. If anyone's listening to the Churchill Atlee prog at the moment they might see the embryo of another Atlee

Once you conclude that the LDs are Labour'ssecret ally and not a challenger, then at the moment Starmer isn't facing anyone who is any good in depth. Both in temperament and content Kemi has been much worse than I expected.

Reform's journey from right wing small state economics back to the mainstream centrism (essential for a 2029 manifesto) leaves a lot of inconsistencies for Labour to mine.

This modern Attlee isn't exactly facing Churchill across the floor is he?

Taz · June 14

Looks like the Great March to Gaza has been less than a resounding success

https://x.com/paulmurphy_td/status/1933519321378033857?s=61

FrancisUrquhart · June 14

The ultimate problem is until somebody work out how to get growth into the economy, things will continue to get worse, and whoever is in power will get the blame for it.

Blair kept winning because things were getting better economically. Cameron won in 2015 because things were looking better than 2010. Since then it is has been car crash after car crash.

SandyRentool · June 14

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

You missed the stand out candidate from your list.

#Priti4Leader

Casino_Royale · June 14

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.

I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

wooliedyed · June 14

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO

Labour got so badly humped on May 1 that they only led in 3 of the seats where wards were contested losing oodles to Reform and even the Tories. Its all headwinds from here, the PIP debacle next up as a flashpoint.
Yeah Kemi needs a solid third in Wales or Scotland and to hold on to some councils plus get polling back into the mid 20s or a challenge next year is certain.
Labour may recover of course but that will be at the expense of LD and Green votes which unless it really takes off isnt going to scare Reform or the Tories as much

Big_G_NorthWales · June 14

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
The only time spending has fallen as a percentage of GDP this century was under the Conservative and LD coalition government of 2010 to 2015

That was a good government

BartholomewRoberts · June 14

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
The only time spending has fallen as a percentage of GDP this century was under the Conservative and LD coalition government of 2010 to 2015

Yes, when they cut some of the fat from Brown's spendthrift government.

The problem is, that could only be done once, after that because of their irresponsible priorities all the expenditure kept going into the same areas while everything else became lean - you can't continue to cut that which has already been cut lean and continue to fatten up that which you've fattened up already, it doesn't work that way.

Which is why they've left expenditure on welfare higher than Brown did, despite the Coalition years, despite austerity, despite low unemployment.

It is a dismal, miserable failure for a party that's supposed to understand sound finance.

HYUFD · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

algarkirk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also
believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of
unicorns on Mars. But I very much
doubt if it's actually true. People
are holistic. This is very
inconvenient, but in ordinary life we
tend to think so, and act accordingly.

People can be competent in one
field, and ludicrously inept in others. Plenty of people hold
beliefs that are outlandish.
I'm often astonished by how many
people, as adults, genuinely and
sincerely hold beliefs that most of us shed as a child.

Ghosts, dragon energy, and voodoo
aren't much different from Father
Christmas or the Tooth Fairy.

Until you are alone in a very old building at night and see a ghost

MattW · June 14

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.

He's an interesting character for them to have chosen. He was deputy leader under Tice, then moved out when Farage landed.

And he's another former Brexit Party MEP.

I'm not sure whether he is appointed for his Presenter's or Organiser's hat.

Big_G_NorthWales · June 14

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:
I notice that findoutnow's latest six weekly polls have gone from a 13 point Reform lead to a 6 point one going down in each successive poll. 13,12,11,10,9,6

Could it be that findoutnow are trying to moderate their polls to fall in line with more established pollsters or are Reform finally being found out (excuse the pun)?
Find Out Now were the most accurate pollster for the May Mayoralties so I doubt they feel the need to adjust their methodology. Its just that Reform have plateaued and there's a bit of noise
Good morning

The locals have been terrible for labour with many easy reform wins

However, I agree with the header and it is impossible to predict the next GE at this time.

Events, especially unexpected ones, come along and may derail governments though they may do the opposite, so whilst we cannot rule out a labour win with a reduced majority, we also cannot rule out a 'conservative like experience in 2024' and labour being trounced

Mind you, I just do not see PM Farage, certainly with a majority and I expect that unless Kemi recovers the conservative polling then she will not be leader this time next year post the Senedd and Holyrood elections

Now who replaces her from a list of Jenrick, Cleverly, Stride, Hunt, Mordaunt, or even (God forbid) Boris is anyone's guess.

Maybe ANO
You missed the stand out candidate from your list.

#Priti4Leader

No I didn't - not a remote chance

Casino_Royale · June 14

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
Don’t forget the fiscally inept Lib Dem’s too. They want to spunk billions, metaphorically speaking, on the WASPI women too. They don’t deserve a penny.

The Tories need to rediscover fiscal discipline, and so do Labour.

The problem with SKS, and I do think he’s improved greatly this year, is he folds under a small amount of pressure. Also his comms is weak.

SKS entirely reacts to the initiatives of others.

Andy_JS · June 14

fpt

Fishing said:
This is a good, balanced and non-technical video about why trillions in foreign aid haven't boosted development overall and have sometimes been completely counter-productive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFRTviAVthU

Interesting video but it's slightly biased in favour of believing foreign aid is intrinsically a good thing imo.

Casino_Royale · June 14

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

algarkirk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also
believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of
unicorns on Mars. But I very much
doubt if it's actually true. People
are holistic. This is very
inconvenient, but in ordinary life we
tend to think so, and act accordingly.

People can be competent in one
field, and ludicrously inept in others. Plenty of people hold
beliefs that are outlandish.
I'm often astonished by how many
people, as adults, genuinely and
sincerely hold beliefs that most of us shed as a child.

Ghosts, dragon energy, and voodoo
aren't much different from Father
Christmas or the Tooth Fairy.
Until you are alone in a very old building at night and see a ghost

Why have you turned my post into a poem?

FrancisUrquhart · June 14

MattW said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
He's an interesting character for them to have chosen. He was deputy leader under Tice, then moved out when Farage landed.

And he's another former Brexit Party MEP.

I'm not sure whether he is appointed for his Presenter's or Organiser's hat.

At one point he was seen as rising star of the Tory party. Young, urban, highly educated, openly gay and confident media performer. Didn't he do what Jeremy Vine does on TV at one point, he definitely used to be on the panels for those kind of shows regularly.. He has been on quite a journey since then.

stodge · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Jenrick doesn't either, does he?

Who should we be looking for, and how do they overcome the "I'll be gone before it goes wrong" selfish pensioner lobby and the "sell Britain off for parts" vulture capitalist faction?
Jenrick does a bit, and Hunt would definitely.

The Conservatives need to target a new voting coalition.

They did it from 2005, and they need to do it now.

That’s an interesting thought but not wholly accurate.

The Cameron team initially went after those Conservatives who went LD from 1997 - remember the infamous “love bombing” to which the LDs in their post-Kennedy phase had no response. Indeed, it wasn’t until they chose THEIR Cameron in the form of Nick Clegg they recovered some composure.

The philosophical convergence of the Orange Bookers and Cameron’s liberal conservatism enabled the Coalition aided and abetted by the 2010 result and the good personal relationship Cameron and Clegg enjoyed.

The other group the Cameron leadership attracted was those ex-Conservatives who had been happy to support Tony Blair who was basically a Tory with a red rosette but who didn’t have the same warmth for Gordon Brown who was much more in the traditional Labour mode.

Doing a complete policy shift on Iraq helped as well and with the acquiescence of the “headbangers” - nothing placates like success as I just said, the Conservative Party, seemingly rebranded and with most of the Major failures out of the way, looked a very different creature in 2010 to the way it had under its two previous leaders.

Taz · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
Don’t forget the fiscally inept Lib Dem’s too. They want to spunk billions, metaphorically speaking, on the WASPI women too. They don’t deserve a penny.

The Tories need to rediscover fiscal discipline, and so do Labour.

The problem with SKS, and I do think he’s improved greatly this year, is he folds under a small amount of pressure. Also his comms is weak.
SKS entirely reacts to the initiatives of others.

Yes he does and, sadly, that’s not leadership. However he is probably the best of a very poor bunch of party leaders and there really are no others out there in labour who seem up to it either.

Scott_xP · June 14

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

Worse than that, they seem to have ignored this guy...

@JohnSwinney

The horrendously dangerous situation in Iran must stop. The International community must bring Israel to account and halt this latest escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

Andy_JS · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Both Labour and Reform are spendthrifts, and we could hit a sovereign debt crisis before then. And our taxes will certainly go up again.

There's an opportunity for the Tories there, but Kemi has to go - she doesn't do economics.
Labour, Reform and the Tories are all spendthrifts.

The Tories addiction to the Triple Lock meant they bequeathed an economy with a massive deficit with even more expenditure going on welfare as a proportion of GDP than Gordon Brown's Labour did.

Until any party ceases to be spendthrift, we're in trouble. The bigger trouble is the party that's supposed to not be spendthrift, the one that's just had 14 years to sort out the troubles, very much is.
I wouldn't campaign for the Tories again until they addressed that, but at least they were gradually closing the deficit down and exercising some pay restraint.

They need to put down the pensioner methadone. They don't need to "screw" them - nor should they - but they do need a balanced approach and not a strategy based on stuffing their mouths with gold.

My parents are probably going to get the winter fuel allowance again, and they most definitely don't need it. Good example of what's going wrong atm.

wooliedyed · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

wooliedyed said:

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:
Not sure who wins the next election, but the Tories are cooked I think. Nigel doesn't have to be PM to have a stinking 200+ seat gain and replace the Tories as the main party of the right.
Labour isn't in great shape but it's recoverable to a win from here for sure.
Tories being cooked likely means a Reform government IMHO. The vagaries of FPTP.
I think the Tories being 'cooked' is a vastly overdone trope. Its based on two months polling a year after a heavy defeat. Way too early to write them off as largest Party or official opposition, although i think Majority can safely be parked until 2034 etc
Yes, I agree. Reform could fade into the teens and the Tories advance to the high twenties in, say, 2027, if they change leader, get the strategy right and Labour totally stagflates the economy and fails to deliver.

That could get them up to near 200 seats again in GE2029.

Chances?

15%

Hard to disagree with the % chance.

SandyRentool · June 14

Taz said:
Looks like the Great March to Gaza has been less than a resounding success

https://x.com/paulmurphy_td/status/1933519321378033857?s=61

Premier Division virtue signallers head to Gaza by boat.

Roger · June 14

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.

He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

Malmesbury · June 14

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

algarkirk said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Just out of interest, what does this new chairman actually believe, and why is it less serious than having someone who believes in the god of classical theism?

Are they any good at their job? If so, then personal beliefs, whether monotheism, occultism, or astrology, don't really matter.
It's completely fashionable and convenient to parcel out separately all aspects of people's lives in this way, so that you can be brilliant at, say, governing the country or running a police service, while also believing that the earth is flat and that we are run by a cabal of unicorns on Mars. But I very much doubt if it's actually true. People are holistic. This is very inconvenient, but in ordinary life we tend to think so, and act accordingly.
People can be competent in one field, and ludicrously inept in others. Plenty of people hold beliefs that are outlandish.
I'm often astonished by how many people, as adults, genuinely and sincerely hold beliefs that most of us shed as a child.

Ghosts, dragon energy, and voodoo aren't much different from Father Christmas or the Tooth Fairy.

Voodoo might be useful if the AI Epoxyclips actually occurs.

Just remember to Count To Zero.

BartholomewRoberts · June 14

Roger said:

DavidL said:
Meanwhile, and quite remarkably, it appears as if both Iran and Israel have ignored Starmer's call for peace and diplomacy. It's almost as if he had never spoken.
He disqualified himself when he said 'Israel has the right to defend itself'

Even the BBC were better informed

Yes, Roger, we all know you think that Israeli's have a right to die and no right to defend themselves.

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

Three years is a long time in politics – politicalbetting.com

Comments