Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up. Tesla drivers think they own the road top.
20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
Any recommendations on public charger networks? My experience so far, MER and SSE, have been a total shit-show. Slow / not charging and crashing out between taking initial deposit and final payment - so costing even more than the punchy £/kwhr.
Pay the very reasonable monthly subscription cost to use the Tesla charging network? You can’t use all of it yet but a significant chunk is usable by non-Tesla EVs.
A friend with an EV says the Octopus App is better than many of the others & works across charging networks but I have no personal experience here.
Ultimately the key dynamic of Scottish politics is SNP dominance with Labour challenging. The dynamic applies to Hamilton as well. SNP have had a bad setback in the by- election but not so bad they need to fear for their dominance.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
Im being 'Woolie harsh' and grumpy of course but I do think he's ridiculously overplaying it (for now) - if they'd managed second then yes but they've two parties to overhaul..... And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours. They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up. Tesla drivers think they own the road top.
20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
Any recommendations on public charger networks? My experience so far, MER and SSE, have been a total shit-show. Slow / not charging and crashing out between taking initial deposit and final payment - so costing even more than the punchy £/kwhr.
Pay the very reasonable monthly subscription cost to use the Tesla charging network? You can’t use all of it yet but a significant chunk is usable by non-Tesla EVs.
A friend with an EV says the Octopus App is better than many of the others & works across charging networks but I have no personal experience here.
I’ve tried to charge through the Octo app on a Shell charger and it failed, so not watertight.
Public charging is really crappy at the moment. OK for ultra rapid charge at places like motorway services or petrol stations, if you have the right car (my Zoe is a type 2 so not compatible) albeit expensive, but rubbish for on street and car park options because they’re over-priced and too often broken. Overpriced largely thanks to the feedback loop of low utilisation therefore high unit prices therefore low utilisation.
Around us we have street charging posts which more often than not are inaccessible because there’s a (ICU) car parked in front of them, as there’s no dedicated space.
There is only one winner in a by-election, so Labour should be congratulated.
Beyond that, there's a crumb of comfort for various parties - Reform that they scored such a percentage in any Scottish election, the Tories that they kept their deposit and a not inconsiderable vote. The SNP that they didn't get pushed into third (though that's fairly cold comfort).
The SNP and Reform will probably both fancy their chances against the new incumbent, but perhaps he'll surprise on the upside. It seems for as many people laughing when he was skewered over the WFP, many may have been feeling sorry for him. Gotcha politics doesn't always work.
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
I’m a fan of the proxy parental vote system. You get one vote if you’re over 18, plus a vote for every dependent child. To avoid double counting, that dependent cannot themselves vote, and only one carer gets their allocation.
So my family would get 4 votes rather than 2. A pro natal policy that should appeal across the spectrum, except perhaps with Greens who would prefer nobody has children.
There is only one winner in a by-election, so Labour should be congratulated.
Beyond that, there's a crumb of comfort for various parties - Reform that they scored such a percentage in any Scottish election, the Tories that they kept their deposit and a not inconsiderable vote. The SNP that they didn't get pushed into third (though that's fairly cold comfort).
The SNP and Reform will probably both fancy their chances against the new incumbent, but perhaps he'll surprise on the upside. It seems for as many people laughing when he was skewered over the WFP, many may have been feeling sorry for him. Gotcha politics doesn't always work.
The crumb of comfort for the SNP feels like a very tiny one. They (along with the Tories) must be the most disappointed with this result.
Morning everyone, many thanks to TSE for the header, I agree with much of what you say.
Regarding the reform party in Scotland - where they have a decent chance of winning a by election right now would be in somewhere like D&G or the north east, where there is a large Tory vote to squeeze.
In terms of MSPs, there are an awful lot of Tory MSPs whose jackets are on shoogly pegs right now. Of the 31 seats the Tories won in 2021, 26 were on the list. The list vote is the area Reform UK should be targeting. Hamilton is one of the better central belt seats for them, I doubt they will be polling as much as 20-25% in Edinburgh seats or Glasgow Kelvin. Will be interesting to see how much (if at all) the Tories can recover in Scotland over the next 11 months.
Finally, to emphasise again what Prof JC said on BBC last night. A narrow win for Labour n Hamilton isn't enough to put Mr Sarwar in Bute House if repeated across Scotland, they need to do better. I am expecting the Greens to gain more MSPs, and they have a decent chance of winning at least 1 Scottish constituency
Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up. Tesla drivers think they own the road top.
20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
Any recommendations on public charger networks? My experience so far, MER and SSE, have been a total shit-show. Slow / not charging and crashing out between taking initial deposit and final payment - so costing even more than the punchy £/kwhr.
Pay the very reasonable monthly subscription cost to use the Tesla charging network? You can’t use all of it yet but a significant chunk is usable by non-Tesla EVs.
A friend with an EV says the Octopus App is better than many of the others & works across charging networks but I have no personal experience here.
I’ve tried to charge through the Octo app on a Shell charger and it failed, so not watertight.
Public charging is really crappy at the moment. OK for ultra rapid charge at places like motorway services or petrol stations, if you have the right car (my Zoe is a type 2 so not compatible) albeit expensive, but rubbish for on street and car park options because they’re over-priced and too often broken. Overpriced largely thanks to the feedback loop of low utilisation therefore high unit prices therefore low utilisation.
Around us we have street charging posts which more often than not are inaccessible because there’s a (ICU) car parked in front of them, as there’s no dedicated space.
One trick EV manufacturers are missing IMO is accepting the full 22KW AC charging available from most on street chargers. There are more AC chargers than DC ones and they are cheaper.
You could top up for an hour while you do your shopping or go to the gym, which would be good for a hundred miles or so, and fine for normal usage
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
It's not far off it in my opinion. Scotland is probably the worst place in the UK for RefUK, although it could also be London.
West half of (especially SW) and central London is worst probably
Interesting question. Where is the least reformy place in the country? Probably not Lib-Con marginals in the blue wall as many of those Cons will have switched. Either LD strongholds like Kingston & Surbiton or Labour-Green-Gaza seats in inner cities I assume.
Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up. Tesla drivers think they own the road top.
20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
Any recommendations on public charger networks? My experience so far, MER and SSE, have been a total shit-show. Slow / not charging and crashing out between taking initial deposit and final payment - so costing even more than the punchy £/kwhr.
Pay the very reasonable monthly subscription cost to use the Tesla charging network? You can’t use all of it yet but a significant chunk is usable by non-Tesla EVs.
A friend with an EV says the Octopus App is better than many of the others & works across charging networks but I have no personal experience here.
I have the Electroverse card (Octopus) on advice of a colleague with more experience of public chargers who said app was flaky, also my experience. The problem seems to be with the chargers rather than the app, poor network connection / charger software. I very rarely use public chargers, so wouldn't pay a subscription, but based on feedback will register for Tesla charging.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
Im being 'Woolie harsh' and grumpy of course but I do think he's ridiculously overplaying it (for now) - if they'd managed second then yes but they've two parties to overhaul..... And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours. They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
As a American I worked with once told me, show me a gallant loser and I’ll show you a loser.
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
I’m a fan of the proxy parental vote system. You get one vote if you’re over 18, plus a vote for every dependent child. To avoid double counting, that dependent cannot themselves vote, and only one carer gets their allocation.
So my family would get 4 votes rather than 2. A pro natal policy that should appeal across the spectrum, except perhaps with Greens who would prefer nobody has children.
That's an idea which is not something I can support. Punishing those unable to have children is not right. Someone unable or unwilling to have children should not have less electoral weight than those wealthy or feckless enough to have many. Parents already benefit from the free healthcare and education their children receive, plus receiving benefits.
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
Morning everyone, many thanks to TSE for the header, I agree with much of what you say.
Regarding the reform party in Scotland - where they have a decent chance of winning a by election right now would be in somewhere like D&G or the north east, where there is a large Tory vote to squeeze.
In terms of MSPs, there are an awful lot of Tory MSPs whose jackets are on shoogly pegs right now. Of the 31 seats the Tories won in 2021, 26 were on the list. The list vote is the area Reform UK should be targeting. Hamilton is one of the better central belt seats for them, I doubt they will be polling as much as 20-25% in Edinburgh seats or Glasgow Kelvin. Will be interesting to see how much (if at all) the Tories can recover in Scotland over the next 11 months.
Finally, to emphasise again what Prof JC said on BBC last night. A narrow win for Labour n Hamilton isn't enough to put Mr Sarwar in Bute House if repeated across Scotland, they need to do better. I am expecting the Greens to gain more MSPs, and they have a decent chance of winning at least 1 Scottish constituency
They would be fighting directly against the Tories in most of the NE, so its not really a 'squeeze' there as such. Reform should beat the Tories into third at Holyrood although winning constituencies may be hard, the Tories might make up some ground in seats by holding on in the borders seats etc and targeting the likes of Ayr - they are probably looking at 2011 as their target %s. They'll be well south of 20 seats and I think nearer 10 than 20, reform should be nearer 20 than 10
Dentistry - an idea that was a side suggestion on R4 this morning.
Dental therapists can do 85% of the work that dentists do, so what about a two-stage service, where the complex 15% of treatments are referred on by the dental therapists.
The stats are we currently have one dental therapist per five dentists, and with a two stage service those proportions could be reversed.
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
I’m a fan of the proxy parental vote system. You get one vote if you’re over 18, plus a vote for every dependent child. To avoid double counting, that dependent cannot themselves vote, and only one carer gets their allocation.
So my family would get 4 votes rather than 2. A pro natal policy that should appeal across the spectrum, except perhaps with Greens who would prefer nobody has children.
That's an idea which is not something I can support. Punishing those unable to have children is not right. Someone unable or unwilling to have children should not have less electoral weight than those wealthy or feckless enough to have many. Parents already benefit from the free healthcare and education their children receive, plus receiving benefits.
It wasn’t a serious proposal, though it’s still an interesting concept.
Let's cut through all the wibble with some hard algebra:
Success = Result - Expectations
Expectations = The Betting
The betting had LAB a 10/1 rank outsider, SNP long odds on favs, REF 2nd favs and favs to beat LAB for 2nd. The outcome was LAB/SNP/REF
So applying the formula this is a terrific result for LAB. They've won a seat they were given a less than 10% chance of winning. By the same token, it's a very bad result for the SNP and a mildly disappointing one for REF.
Morning everyone, many thanks to TSE for the header, I agree with much of what you say.
Regarding the reform party in Scotland - where they have a decent chance of winning a by election right now would be in somewhere like D&G or the north east, where there is a large Tory vote to squeeze.
In terms of MSPs, there are an awful lot of Tory MSPs whose jackets are on shoogly pegs right now. Of the 31 seats the Tories won in 2021, 26 were on the list. The list vote is the area Reform UK should be targeting. Hamilton is one of the better central belt seats for them, I doubt they will be polling as much as 20-25% in Edinburgh seats or Glasgow Kelvin. Will be interesting to see how much (if at all) the Tories can recover in Scotland over the next 11 months.
Finally, to emphasise again what Prof JC said on BBC last night. A narrow win for Labour n Hamilton isn't enough to put Mr Sarwar in Bute House if repeated across Scotland, they need to do better. I am expecting the Greens to gain more MSPs, and they have a decent chance of winning at least 1 Scottish constituency
Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
They sound nice.
..Joseph Boam, 22, now heads up adult social care at Leicestershire County Council (LCC), and Charles Pugsley, 19, who is still at university, has been made cabinet member for children and family services. The pair were appointed following the local elections in May, and are responsible for multi-million pound budgets. Cllr Deborah Taylor, leader of the opposition at LCC and previous cabinet member for children and families, told PSW magazine: “My concern regarding the appointment of Mr Boam and Mr Pugsley is whether they possess the necessary business, organisational, or life experience to manage complex portfolios. “Adult social care and children’s services account for approximately 75 per cent of the council’s £616 million budget.” Cllr Boam was recently exposed by Hope Not Hate – a group opposing far-right extremism – as appearing to show support for misogynist Andrew Tate in posts from a now-deleted X account. ..
Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up. Tesla drivers think they own the road top.
In the UK Tesla are currently offering interest free finance over 4 years to buy back market share. That's why our local expert Just Got Another Tesla.
IMO they will need to go further as the new Model Y starts at about £41-42kk. They need the base model to be £39999 AND have the free finance.
It shows how much they don’t listen to local markets - keeping it below £40,000 will reduce the car tax by over £2,000 over 5 years.
In fact that 0% finance must knock the real price of the car below £40,000 so offering it at that price without free finance would be an interesting experiment
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
It's not far off it in my opinion. Scotland is probably the worst place in the UK for RefUK, although it could also be London.
West half of (especially SW) and central London is worst probably
Interesting question. Where is the least reformy place in the country? Probably not Lib-Con marginals in the blue wall as many of those Cons will have switched. Either LD strongholds like Kingston & Surbiton or Labour-Green-Gaza seats in inner cities I assume.
Yeah, Twickenham/Kingston etc, Gaza Indy London Re the Blue Wall - i think reform will be conspicuous by their absence from campaigning there in 2029 as they have far more productive areas to go at and the Tories will be throwing the kitchen sink at it so it will be an area of underperformance for them in likelihood
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
There's no reason they can't be councillors. Putting them in charge of £600m budgets is a very different matter.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
It's not far off it in my opinion. Scotland is probably the worst place in the UK for RefUK, although it could also be London.
London is the worst region for Reform with Yougov.
Yougov have Reform on 28% UK wide, on 26% in Scotland but just 15% in London.
Indeed London is the only UK region Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 with Labour on 31% in London, the Tories on 21% and Reform on 15% just behind the LDs.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
Im being 'Woolie harsh' and grumpy of course but I do think he's ridiculously overplaying it (for now) - if they'd managed second then yes but they've two parties to overhaul..... And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours. They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
There is only one winner in a by-election, so Labour should be congratulated.
Beyond that, there's a crumb of comfort for various parties - Reform that they scored such a percentage in any Scottish election, the Tories that they kept their deposit and a not inconsiderable vote. The SNP that they didn't get pushed into third (though that's fairly cold comfort).
The SNP and Reform will probably both fancy their chances against the new incumbent, but perhaps he'll surprise on the upside. It seems for as many people laughing when he was skewered over the WFP, many may have been feeling sorry for him. Gotcha politics doesn't always work.
Which naturally improves his chances of holding the seat, if it stays that way.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
Im being 'Woolie harsh' and grumpy of course but I do think he's ridiculously overplaying it (for now) - if they'd managed second then yes but they've two parties to overhaul..... And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours. They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
Could be a lot worse look at Trump's appointing a 22 year old to head up an anti terrorism centre
I shall be off shortly for my weekly winding up of Pa Woolie. Having Robojenricked him into a fever last week I'm excited to remember that whilst he very much dislikes Trump, he really hates Musk. Delicious mischief afternoon ahead
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
Could be a lot worse look at Trump's appointing a 22 year old to head up an anti terrorism centre
I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.
Theoretically what would happen if someone had the most votes AND was under 5% of the vote (I think that the threshold to lose your deposit)?
Ie is it possible to both win and lose your deposit at the same time?
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
For the umpteenth time, no you can't. You couldn't even say that if turnout was 100%.
We have no information about how voters have moved from party to party, or to or from not voting in Hamilton. But the polling in Scotland suggests that the SNP are not losing many of their previous voters to Reform.
Morning everyone, many thanks to TSE for the header, I agree with much of what you say.
Regarding the reform party in Scotland - where they have a decent chance of winning a by election right now would be in somewhere like D&G or the north east, where there is a large Tory vote to squeeze.
In terms of MSPs, there are an awful lot of Tory MSPs whose jackets are on shoogly pegs right now. Of the 31 seats the Tories won in 2021, 26 were on the list. The list vote is the area Reform UK should be targeting. Hamilton is one of the better central belt seats for them, I doubt they will be polling as much as 20-25% in Edinburgh seats or Glasgow Kelvin. Will be interesting to see how much (if at all) the Tories can recover in Scotland over the next 11 months.
Finally, to emphasise again what Prof JC said on BBC last night. A narrow win for Labour n Hamilton isn't enough to put Mr Sarwar in Bute House if repeated across Scotland, they need to do better. I am expecting the Greens to gain more MSPs, and they have a decent chance of winning at least 1 Scottish constituency
Who ends up in Bute House would depend on post-election negotiations. There's no way that SNP+Grn gets close to 65 seats on current polling - which has been backed up by yesterday's election.
But there's also no other obvious majority coalition, with Lab and Ref in the high teens vote share, and Con and LD in low double-figures or v high singles. Presumably Reform will be toxic to both Lab and SNP (and vice versa) but Lab+LD with tacit Con backing doesn't get over the line either. On the other hand, it'd be difficult for Labour to detach the Greens from the SNP - and even if they could, at what cost? Would they even want to?
Question is, would any of Ref / Con / Lab / LD be prepared to prop up SNP/Grn? If not, they must fall - and it's not 2007 any more when a new challenger party needs to be given a chance; the momentum here would be the other way. But the tricky bit is still what comes next. Even a grand coalition of SNP/Lab doesn't have the numbers, and besides, who would lead it with the SNP having more seats but having just gone backwards? It's really hard to see a viable administration if Reform votes against everything.
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
For the umpteenth time, no you can't. You couldn't even say that if turnout was 100%.
We have no information about how voters have moved from party to party, or to or from not voting in Hamilton. But the polling in Scotland suggests that the SNP are not losing many of their previous voters to Reform.
From Survation:
What this doesn't show is the movements to and from DK and won't vote.
Reform have taken Fairstead in Kings Lynn/West Norfolk from Labour whos vote collapsed, LDs and whisker behind Reform in second. Tories didn't play Results for Fairstead Borough Council by-election: Michelle CARTER (LP) 118 Crystal COLWELL (LD) 275 Jacqueline FRY (R) 289 Benjamin LEMMON (I) 21 Ian MILBURN (GP) 36 Jacqueline Fry is duly elected.
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
There's no reason they can't be councillors. Putting them in charge of £600m budgets is a very different matter.
Alexander had commanded armies successfully, by the age of 22. Ismail I had conquered Iran.
Reform have taken Fairstead in Kings Lynn/West Norfolk from Labour whos vote collapsed, LDs and whisker behind Reform in second. Tories didn't play Results for Fairstead Borough Council by-election: Michelle CARTER (LP) 118 Crystal COLWELL (LD) 275 Jacqueline FRY (R) 289 Benjamin LEMMON (I) 21 Ian MILBURN (GP) 36 Jacqueline Fry is duly elected.
Percentage turnout: 17.42%
Embarrassing for the Tories to fail to put up 2 candidates in a town with a Tory MP, in fact their 36th safest seat in the country.
Reform have taken Fairstead in Kings Lynn/West Norfolk from Labour whos vote collapsed, LDs and whisker behind Reform in second. Tories didn't play Results for Fairstead Borough Council by-election: Michelle CARTER (LP) 118 Crystal COLWELL (LD) 275 Jacqueline FRY (R) 289 Benjamin LEMMON (I) 21 Ian MILBURN (GP) 36 Jacqueline Fry is duly elected.
Percentage turnout: 17.42%
Embarrassing for the Tories to fail to put up 2 candidates in a town with a Tory MP, in fact their 36th safest seat in the country.
I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.
Theoretically what would happen if someone had the most votes AND was under 5% of the vote (I think that the threshold to lose your deposit)?
Ie is it possible to both win and lose your deposit at the same time?
It is possible in theory but not in practice. Even with the old (pre-1983) deposit limit of 12.5%, it's probably not practically possible to with with fewer than one vote in eight: not only would you need dozens of candidates but you'd need the leading candidates to split incredibly evenly with no obvious leading contenders.
Reform have taken Fairstead in Kings Lynn/West Norfolk from Labour whos vote collapsed, LDs and whisker behind Reform in second. Tories didn't play Results for Fairstead Borough Council by-election: Michelle CARTER (LP) 118 Crystal COLWELL (LD) 275 Jacqueline FRY (R) 289 Benjamin LEMMON (I) 21 Ian MILBURN (GP) 36 Jacqueline Fry is duly elected.
Percentage turnout: 17.42%
Embarrassing for the Tories to fail to put up 2 candidates in a town with a Tory MP, in fact their 36th safest seat in the country.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
Im being 'Woolie harsh' and grumpy of course but I do think he's ridiculously overplaying it (for now) - if they'd managed second then yes but they've two parties to overhaul..... And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours. They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
No, there is a lot of churning, particularly between SCon, SLAB, SNP and DNV, and also a 44% turnout. Respectable for a by-election but well down on either a Holyrood or Westminster General Election.
Reform are converting DNV to Reform votes, as they also did in the English Local Elections. There will be some direct SNP to Reform switchers, but a relatively small number.
The legacy parties need to motivate their voters to turn out, and that requires a positive message not just "only X can beat Reform".
Is a Labour-SNP coalition the most likely outcome next year?
No. SLab would work with SCons and LDs before considering that, though even I think Reform might be a step too far for them. One unintended outcome of the rise of Reform in Scotland is a possible detoxifting of the Tory brand, though the pointing and laughing at their pitifulness might be almost as damaging.
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
There's no reason they can't be councillors. Putting them in charge of £600m budgets is a very different matter.
Alexander had commanded armies successfully, by the age of 22. Ismail I had conquered Iran.
I don't think I'd want either of them running children's social care, either.
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
No, there is a lot of churning, particularly between SCon, SLAB, SNP and DNV, and also a 44% turnout. Respectable for a by-election but well down on either a Holyrood or Westminster General Election.
Reform are converting DNV to Reform votes, as they also did in the English Local Elections. There will be some direct SNP to Reform switchers, but a relatively small number.
The legacy parties need to motivate their voters to turn out, and that requires a positive message not just "only X can beat Reform".
The respectable turnout was probably due to usually non-voters supporting RefUK.
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
No, there is a lot of churning, particularly between SCon, SLAB, SNP and DNV, and also a 44% turnout. Respectable for a by-election but well down on either a Holyrood or Westminster General Election.
Reform are converting DNV to Reform votes, as they also did in the English Local Elections. There will be some direct SNP to Reform switchers, but a relatively small number.
The legacy parties need to motivate their voters to turn out, and that requires a positive message not just "only X can beat Reform".
The respectable turnout was probably due to usually non-voters supporting RefUK.
How does that play out in the full elections next year ?
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
Could be a lot worse look at Trump's appointing a 22 year old to head up an anti terrorism centre
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
No, there is a lot of churning, particularly between SCon, SLAB, SNP and DNV, and also a 44% turnout. Respectable for a by-election but well down on either a Holyrood or Westminster General Election.
Reform are converting DNV to Reform votes, as they also did in the English Local Elections. There will be some direct SNP to Reform switchers, but a relatively small number.
The legacy parties need to motivate their voters to turn out, and that requires a positive message not just "only X can beat Reform".
The respectable turnout was probably due to usually non-voters supporting RefUK.
How does that play out in the full elections next year ?
Not sure because I don't know much about Scottish politics.
Don't think it will save her. But it does put clear blue water between the conservatives and the government.
Also some boldish criticism of the brexit process:
"Some say reform is the answer, but I say we have tried that before. 15 years ago, the Brighton Process achieved some success, but the Strasbourg Court has shown no real interest in fundamental change. It has rebuffed those European states calling for a new approach, and in its recent decisions – above on all climate change – it has shown ever greater willingness to invent new rights and directly overrule popular mandates.
But I won’t commit my Party to leaving the ECHR or other treaties without a clear plan to do so and without a full understanding of all the consequences for all parts of our United Kingdom. Because we saw that holding a referendum without a plan to get Brexit done, led to years of wrangling and endless arguments until it got sorted in 2019. We cannot go through that again."
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
There's no reason they can't be councillors. Putting them in charge of £600m budgets is a very different matter.
Alexander had commanded armies successfully, by the age of 22. Ismail I had conquered Iran.
I don't think I'd want either of them running children's social care, either.
Reform have taken Fairstead in Kings Lynn/West Norfolk from Labour whos vote collapsed, LDs and whisker behind Reform in second. Tories didn't play Results for Fairstead Borough Council by-election: Michelle CARTER (LP) 118 Crystal COLWELL (LD) 275 Jacqueline FRY (R) 289 Benjamin LEMMON (I) 21 Ian MILBURN (GP) 36 Jacqueline Fry is duly elected.
Percentage turnout: 17.42%
Embarrassing for the Tories to fail to put up 2 candidates in a town with a Tory MP, in fact their 36th safest seat in the country.
They've had a lot of problems in Kings Lynn finding candidates
Yes, but you'd think since it's a fairly safe Tory seat, they'd be able to find candidates willing to help out from the surrounding areas.
Yeah, i don't disagree, but the issue has been rumbling for a while. I suspect tgey thought why bother in the current climate- these were always going to be reform gains. They probably hope if Labour start to fade again in NW Norfolk (up and down like a etc etc here) they can hold on against Reform coming from third. They've 'probably' got a basement of 30% here and will almost certainly get 35% in all but apocalyptic circs
Is a Labour-SNP coalition the most likely outcome next year?
No. SLab would work with SCons and LDs before considering that, though even I think Reform might be a step too far for them. One unintended outcome of the rise of Reform in Scotland is a possible detoxifting of the Tory brand, though the pointing and laughing at their pitifulness might be almost as damaging.
But Lab+LD+Con doesn't get you near 50% on current polling, so they'd still need to avoid the opposition of SNP or Reform, or the support of the Greens (and even that might not be enough).
But equally, if SNP+Grn is roughly high-30s, how do they avoid a blocking (and No Confidencing) majority - particularly having gone backwards and with the tiredness and scandals that 19 years in government brings?
In theory, there's a reasonable case for the SNP to step back, let a red-gold-blue (Romania? Colombia?) coalition form and then leverage their position for goodies, given that their alternative on current numbers is, at best, to have that done to them. But would they?
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
For the umpteenth time, no you can't. You couldn't even say that if turnout was 100%.
We have no information about how voters have moved from party to party, or to or from not voting in Hamilton. But the polling in Scotland suggests that the SNP are not losing many of their previous voters to Reform.
The SNP clearly are losing many of their 2021 Holyrood voters to Reform even if holding their 2024 SNP Westminster voters
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
No, there is a lot of churning, particularly between SCon, SLAB, SNP and DNV, and also a 44% turnout. Respectable for a by-election but well down on either a Holyrood or Westminster General Election.
Reform are converting DNV to Reform votes, as they also did in the English Local Elections. There will be some direct SNP to Reform switchers, but a relatively small number.
The legacy parties need to motivate their voters to turn out, and that requires a positive message not just "only X can beat Reform".
The respectable turnout was probably due to usually non-voters supporting RefUK.
How does that play out in the full elections next year ?
A good list result for Reform. I don't think their voters are fungible - they are largely immune from tactical voting, with the only question about how many they can turnout.
My rough guess is 50% of Labour and Con voters might consider other parties, 35% of Greens, 40% of Lib Dems and only 10% of Reform voters. That's based on current voter retention and relative propensity to go to don't know rather than another party.
Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic' Utterly delusional. Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
Im being 'Woolie harsh' and grumpy of course but I do think he's ridiculously overplaying it (for now) - if they'd managed second then yes but they've two parties to overhaul..... And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours. They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.
It seems plenty of Scottish nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
FPT:
The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.
Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.
But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.
(I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
The SNP vote was down 16% last night, the Con vote down 11% and the Reform vote up 26%.
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
For the umpteenth time, no you can't. You couldn't even say that if turnout was 100%.
We have no information about how voters have moved from party to party, or to or from not voting in Hamilton. But the polling in Scotland suggests that the SNP are not losing many of their previous voters to Reform.
The SNP clearly are losing many of their 2021 Holyrood voters to Reform even if holding their 2024 SNP Westminster voters
Citation needed.
Edit: in fact, Survation polled this as well. Sub&sample, but only 8% of SNP 2021 voters are going Reform. That compares with 37% of Con and 17% of Lab. But those flows will be dwarfed by those from previous non-voters.
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
Did all the other councillors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
Well Labour and the SNP (among others) think 16 year olds deserve the vote. It surely depends on the person. Now if you don't think any 19 year old or 22 year old should be a councillor, thats a different question, and tbh, one I think is worth asking.
A progressive idea is that sentences for crimes committed by under 25s should be less, since their brains aren't fully developed. and they aren't fully responsible.
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
The maturity of under 25s is already considered when sentencing them
There's no reason they can't be councillors. Putting them in charge of £600m budgets is a very different matter.
Alexander had commanded armies successfully, by the age of 22. Ismail I had conquered Iran.
Quite
Given what very grown adults have done to the UK these last 20 odd years, I’m finding it hard to see extreme youth as a barrier to power
Eg even a six year old would know that Chagos is a stupid idea. You’re giving away your ice cream to a random child in the playground and offering him your curly wurly as an incentive to take it
Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
They sound nice.
..Joseph Boam, 22, now heads up adult social care at Leicestershire County Council (LCC), and Charles Pugsley, 19, who is still at university, has been made cabinet member for children and family services. The pair were appointed following the local elections in May, and are responsible for multi-million pound budgets. Cllr Deborah Taylor, leader of the opposition at LCC and previous cabinet member for children and families, told PSW magazine: “My concern regarding the appointment of Mr Boam and Mr Pugsley is whether they possess the necessary business, organisational, or life experience to manage complex portfolios. “Adult social care and children’s services account for approximately 75 per cent of the council’s £616 million budget.” Cllr Boam was recently exposed by Hope Not Hate – a group opposing far-right extremism – as appearing to show support for misogynist Andrew Tate in posts from a now-deleted X account. ..
Joseph Boam is going to come a big cropper before long.
His response to his documented social media activity has been total denial - "it does not exist". Nelson at Copenhagen could get away with "I see no ships." Boam at North-West Leicestershire will not. Behaving like a schoolboy accused of smoking behind the bike sheds won't hack it.
He (as Lead for Adult Social Care / Deputy Leader) is saying things like:
“Depression isn’t real. You feel sad, you continue with life because there’s no alternative. You will always be depressed if your life is depressing. Fix it.”
and (of the World Cup)
“Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran are all out. The way things are going England will be the only Muslim country left in the World Cup.”
Farage previously received, and rejected, formal complaints. World class candidate checking in action; that tells us what Farage actually cares about.
(Boam has a lot of responsibilities, including the Rights of Way Improvement Plan.)
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
I actually disagree with this. We have plenty of solar energy during the day and we should let the market decide whether it's worth putting them on new builds.
A better regulation or subsidy would be heat pumps and/or batteries. 1 EV charge point per house should be compulsory.
What a great result for Scottish Labour. I imagine there’s a fair amount of cheer in Labour quarters.
Troubling for the SNP. And a Reform breakthrough looms.
It's not remotely a great result for Labour, who won the seat with their second-smallest share of the vote in the constituency ever.
Sure, a win is a win but this augurs very badly for Labour at the next GE (which granted is quite a way off), and also pretty badly for the next Holyrood and Scottish council elections, which are not far off.
Any Derby tips for tomorrow then? I'm going for Lazy Griff..partly for the name, partly because it came 2nd in the Chester Vase and partly because it's available at 100/1..Im sure it will go as well as pb.coms Hamilton predictions..😚
Lazy Griff has a bad draw but of course there are negatives in a 100/1 shot. It might rain one heck of a lot and very soft ground would throw all the pieces into the air. The favourites might not have enough stamina. Just remember to save your bus fare home.
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
Well done Labour. I’d rather they won than the Nits
Not a bad job by Reform
Hang on, I thought voting Labour was basically treason at this point?
Everyone loves to be on the winning team..😚
The Daily Moan is hilarious today. It has basically found other things to talk about.
But they are really important stories. We all need to know about rogue truffles:
Diner who blamed 'runaway chocolate truffle' when she slipped in high heels exiting Michelin-listed restaurant loses £100,000 payout claim
She blamed her accident on stepping on a 'runaway' caramel-filled chocolate truffle as she got up from her chair - saying the errant dessert had been 'dropped but not retrieved' by a waiter.
Mrs Malik, of South Croydon, sued the restaurant's owners, Simply Chapters Ltd, for up to £100,000 in damages over the impact of the October 2020 accident.
Don't think it will save her. But it does put clear blue water between the conservatives and the government.
#2 is morally and intellectually bankrupt. The tories deserve extirpation for that alone.
I'm not wildly enthusiastic about §4 either. We send load of people to prison, and basically all it teaches them, as someone more knowledgeable than me said, to be better criminals. Anyway, who ran down the justice and the prison systems to breaking point, and indeed beyond, over the last few years?
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
Don't think it will save her. But it does put clear blue water between the conservatives and the government.
#2 is morally and intellectually bankrupt. The tories deserve extirpation for that alone.
lol. You proudly tell us you haven’t paid a fair on the underground for ten years because you constantly dodge the gates because lol “I is anarchy yeah”. Then you come in and take some kind of moral high ground on legal protection of serving British soldiers
You are fucking ludicrous. Absolutely fucking ludicrous. You’re a fucking ludicrous ageing wanker cosplaying “dangerous sweary person” with “fucking military service yeah” in between sips of weak tea and episodes of Are You Being Served
"Miliband: Vast majority of new homes must have solar panels Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
Comments
A friend with an EV says the Octopus App is better than many of the others & works across charging networks but I have no personal experience here.
Everything else is a side issue.
And they aren't really coming from scratch - they got 8% in Hamilton last year, have doubled their VI nationally since and are the go to NOTA de nos jours.
They overachieved expectations but not by seismic margins
I've seen that advocated by the same people pushing for a reduction in voting age.
Public charging is really crappy at the moment. OK for ultra rapid charge at places like motorway services or petrol stations, if you have the right car (my Zoe is a type 2 so not compatible) albeit expensive, but rubbish for on street and car park options because they’re over-priced and too often broken. Overpriced largely thanks to the feedback loop of low utilisation therefore high unit prices therefore low utilisation.
Around us we have street charging posts which more often than not are inaccessible because there’s a (ICU) car parked in front of them, as there’s no dedicated space.
Beyond that, there's a crumb of comfort for various parties - Reform that they scored such a percentage in any Scottish election, the Tories that they kept their deposit and a not inconsiderable vote. The SNP that they didn't get pushed into third (though that's fairly cold comfort).
The SNP and Reform will probably both fancy their chances against the new incumbent, but perhaps he'll surprise on the upside. It seems for as many people laughing when he was skewered over the WFP, many may have been feeling sorry for him. Gotcha politics doesn't always work.
So my family would get 4 votes rather than 2. A pro natal policy that should appeal across the spectrum, except perhaps with Greens who would prefer nobody has children.
Regarding the reform party in Scotland - where they have a decent chance of winning a by election right now would be in somewhere like D&G or the north east, where there is a large Tory vote to squeeze.
In terms of MSPs, there are an awful lot of Tory MSPs whose jackets are on shoogly pegs right now. Of the 31 seats the Tories won in 2021, 26 were on the list. The list vote is the area Reform UK should be targeting. Hamilton is one of the better central belt seats for them, I doubt they will be polling as much as 20-25% in Edinburgh seats or Glasgow Kelvin. Will be interesting to see how much (if at all) the Tories can recover in Scotland over the next 11 months.
Finally, to emphasise again what Prof JC said on BBC last night. A narrow win for Labour n Hamilton isn't enough to put Mr Sarwar in Bute House if repeated across Scotland, they need to do better. I am expecting the Greens to gain more MSPs, and they have a decent chance of winning at least 1 Scottish constituency
You could top up for an hour while you do your shopping or go to the gym, which would be good for a hundred miles or so, and fine for normal usage
https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:rw4da24nmylecouj3quow7hp/post/3lqwfmalm4c2q
Reform should beat the Tories into third at Holyrood although winning constituencies may be hard, the Tories might make up some ground in seats by holding on in the borders seats etc and targeting the likes of Ayr - they are probably looking at 2011 as their target %s. They'll be well south of 20 seats and I think nearer 10 than 20, reform should be nearer 20 than 10
Dental therapists can do 85% of the work that dentists do, so what about a two-stage service, where the complex 15% of treatments are referred on by the dental therapists.
The stats are we currently have one dental therapist per five dentists, and with a two stage service those proportions could be reversed.
2:41:45 in the Today programme here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002cznn
Success = Result - Expectations
Expectations = The Betting
The betting had LAB a 10/1 rank outsider, SNP long odds on favs, REF 2nd favs and favs to beat LAB for 2nd. The outcome was LAB/SNP/REF
So applying the formula this is a terrific result for LAB. They've won a seat they were given a less than 10% chance of winning. By the same token, it's a very bad result for the SNP and a mildly disappointing one for REF.
..Joseph Boam, 22, now heads up adult social care at Leicestershire County Council (LCC), and Charles Pugsley, 19, who is still at university, has been made cabinet member for children and family services.
The pair were appointed following the local elections in May, and are responsible for multi-million pound budgets.
Cllr Deborah Taylor, leader of the opposition at LCC and previous cabinet member for children and families, told PSW magazine: “My concern regarding the appointment of Mr Boam and Mr Pugsley is whether they possess the necessary business, organisational, or life experience to manage complex portfolios.
“Adult social care and children’s services account for approximately 75 per cent of the council’s £616 million budget.”
Cllr Boam was recently exposed by Hope Not Hate – a group opposing far-right extremism – as appearing to show support for misogynist Andrew Tate in posts from a now-deleted X account. ..
In fact that 0% finance must knock the real price of the car below £40,000 so offering it at that price without free finance would be an interesting experiment
Re the Blue Wall - i think reform will be conspicuous by their absence from campaigning there in 2029 as they have far more productive areas to go at and the Tories will be throwing the kitchen sink at it so it will be an area of underperformance for them in likelihood
On those numbers you could say more 2021 SNP voters went Reform than 2021 Con voters (though clearly some 2024 Labour voters who went SNP in 2021 also went Reform last night)
In 'seismic' terms this is a minor aftershock.
Putting them in charge of £600m budgets is a very different matter.
Yougov have Reform on 28% UK wide, on 26% in Scotland but just 15% in London.
Indeed London is the only UK region Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 with Labour on 31% in London, the Tories on 21% and Reform on 15% just behind the LDs.
Indeed with Yougov the Tories are now doing better in London than the 18% they are on UK wide
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention
https://www.techdirt.com/2025/06/05/the-intern-in-charge-meet-the-22-year-old-trumps-team-picked-to-lead-terrorism-prevention/
Ie is it possible to both win and lose your deposit at the same time?
We have no information about how voters have moved from party to party, or to or from not voting in Hamilton. But the polling in Scotland suggests that the SNP are not losing many of their previous voters to Reform.
But there's also no other obvious majority coalition, with Lab and Ref in the high teens vote share, and Con and LD in low double-figures or v high singles. Presumably Reform will be toxic to both Lab and SNP (and vice versa) but Lab+LD with tacit Con backing doesn't get over the line either. On the other hand, it'd be difficult for Labour to detach the Greens from the SNP - and even if they could, at what cost? Would they even want to?
Question is, would any of Ref / Con / Lab / LD be prepared to prop up SNP/Grn? If not, they must fall - and it's not 2007 any more when a new challenger party needs to be given a chance; the momentum here would be the other way. But the tricky bit is still what comes next. Even a grand coalition of SNP/Lab doesn't have the numbers, and besides, who would lead it with the SNP having more seats but having just gone backwards? It's really hard to see a viable administration if Reform votes against everything.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jun/06/david-beckham-knight-king-charles-birthday-list
But I'd rather spend time in a pleasant pool than an ocean of sewage.
RefUK 289
LD 275
Lab 118
Green 36
Ind 21
RefUK gain from Lab"
"Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, North Lynn
RefUK 278
LD 123
Lab 107
Green 52
RefUK gain from Lab"
https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19383/local-council-elections-june-2025?page=5
Good results for the LDs in those two wards.
Don't think it will save her. But it does put clear blue water between the conservatives and the government.
What this doesn't show is the movements to and from DK and won't vote.
Results for Fairstead Borough Council by-election:
Michelle CARTER (LP) 118
Crystal COLWELL (LD) 275
Jacqueline FRY (R) 289
Benjamin LEMMON (I) 21
Ian MILBURN (GP) 36
Jacqueline Fry is duly elected.
Percentage turnout: 17.42%
White house aides are today desperately trying to broker a peace deal with Elon Musk...
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/conservative
Reform are converting DNV to Reform votes, as they also did in the English Local Elections. There will be some direct SNP to Reform switchers, but a relatively small number.
The legacy parties need to motivate their voters to turn out, and that requires a positive message not just "only X can beat Reform".
SLab would work with SCons and LDs before considering that, though even I think Reform might be a step too far for them.
One unintended outcome of the rise of Reform in Scotland is a possible detoxifting of the Tory brand, though the pointing and laughing at their pitifulness might be almost as damaging.
I’m not sure if I believe Musk can take down Trump without also taking himself down.
Let's find out
Nobody cares
"Some say reform is the answer, but I say we have tried that before. 15 years ago, the Brighton Process achieved some success, but the Strasbourg Court has shown no real interest in fundamental change. It has rebuffed those European states calling for a new approach, and in its recent decisions – above on all climate change – it has shown ever greater willingness to invent new rights and directly overrule popular mandates.
But I won’t commit my Party to leaving the ECHR or other treaties without a clear plan to do so and without a full understanding of all the consequences for all parts of our United Kingdom. Because we saw that holding a referendum without a plan to get Brexit done, led to years of wrangling and endless arguments until it got sorted in 2019. We cannot go through that again."
'Leave him outside to die.'
(Yeah, I know that was allegedly the Spartans)
Late here today. Things to do.
Any news from Frinton?
Troubling for the SNP. And a Reform breakthrough looms.
In line with polling really and in line with it being Nigels yard
But equally, if SNP+Grn is roughly high-30s, how do they avoid a blocking (and No Confidencing) majority - particularly having gone backwards and with the tiredness and scandals that 19 years in government brings?
In theory, there's a reasonable case for the SNP to step back, let a red-gold-blue (Romania? Colombia?) coalition form and then leverage their position for goodies, given that their alternative on current numbers is, at best, to have that done to them. But would they?
My rough guess is 50% of Labour and Con voters might consider other parties, 35% of Greens, 40% of Lib Dems and only 10% of Reform voters. That's based on current voter retention and relative propensity to go to don't know rather than another party.
Andy's a bit like Federer on a clay court here.
Question is, who is our Nadal?
X can be as mad but X is also vast
Basically you’re floating in a leftist toilet with lots of turds and I’m boating a large lake with some algae and pollution problems during summer
Edit: in fact, Survation polled this as well. Sub&sample, but only 8% of SNP 2021 voters are going Reform. That compares with 37% of Con and 17% of Lab. But those flows will be dwarfed by those from previous non-voters.
Energy Secretary says huge increase in rooftop power is ‘just common sense’ and should become ‘almost universal’"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/06/ed-miliband-roof-top-solar-panels-developers-new-builds/
Given what very grown adults have done to the UK these last 20 odd years, I’m finding it hard to see extreme youth as a barrier to power
Eg even a six year old would know that Chagos is a stupid idea. You’re giving away your ice cream to a random child in the playground and offering him your curly wurly as an incentive to take it
His response to his documented social media activity has been total denial - "it does not exist". Nelson at Copenhagen could get away with "I see no ships." Boam at North-West Leicestershire will not. Behaving like a schoolboy accused of smoking behind the bike sheds won't hack it.
He (as Lead for Adult Social Care / Deputy Leader) is saying things like:
“Depression isn’t real. You feel sad, you continue with life because there’s no alternative. You will always be depressed if your life is depressing. Fix it.”
and (of the World Cup)
“Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran are all out. The way things are going England will be the only Muslim country left in the World Cup.”
Farage previously received, and rejected, formal complaints. World class candidate checking in action; that tells us what Farage actually cares about.
(Boam has a lot of responsibilities, including the Rights of Way Improvement Plan.)
A better regulation or subsidy would be heat pumps and/or batteries. 1 EV charge point per house should be compulsory.
Sure, a win is a win but this augurs very badly for Labour at the next GE (which granted is quite a way off), and also pretty badly for the next Holyrood and Scottish council elections, which are not far off.
Diner who blamed 'runaway chocolate truffle' when she slipped in high heels exiting Michelin-listed restaurant loses £100,000 payout claim
She blamed her accident on stepping on a 'runaway' caramel-filled chocolate truffle as she got up from her chair - saying the errant dessert had been 'dropped but not retrieved' by a waiter.
Mrs Malik, of South Croydon, sued the restaurant's owners, Simply Chapters Ltd, for up to £100,000 in damages over the impact of the October 2020 accident.
But the restaurant denied liability and, while not disputing that a truffle was dropped onto the floor, the restaurant's managers insisted Mrs Malik did not step on it before her tumble.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14786583/Diner-chocolate-truffle-Michelin-restaurant.html
Anyway, who ran down the justice and the prison systems to breaking point, and indeed beyond, over the last few years?
You are fucking ludicrous. Absolutely fucking ludicrous. You’re a fucking ludicrous ageing wanker cosplaying “dangerous sweary person” with “fucking military service yeah” in between sips of weak tea and episodes of Are You Being Served
Think 80% solutions...