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Sir Keir Starmer continues to be Malleus Scotnatorum – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,506
edited June 6 in General
Sir Keir Starmer continues to be Malleus Scotnatorum – politicalbetting.com

After smashing the SNP in last year’s general election Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour won the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election quite unexpectedly and there’s quite a lot to unpack, in no particular order

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    edited June 6
    First ?

    Unlike Reform.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,566
    Nigelb said:

    First ?

    Unlike Reform.

    Second. Unlike Reform
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,539
    On Trump and Musk: I am torn about who I want to win this spat. Neither would be good. There was a lot to feared about a billionaire oligarch having unfettered access to the levers of government in the world’s largest power. There is also a lot to be feared about a president becoming ever more omnipotent. It’s more than Boris vs Dom, it’s Putin vs Prigozhin. Hopefully both will damage each other.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    IANAE and have not followed the Hamilton election much, but if I understood correctly Curtice was saying this morning that the result was very much in line with general current polling expectations and should not be seen as surprising.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Of course given the Scottish partial proportional representation system, Reform are likely to gain a decent number of seats, even if they end up third everywhere.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,539
    algarkirk said:

    IANAE and have not followed the Hamilton election much, but if I understood correctly Curtice was saying this morning that the result was very much in line with general current polling expectations and should not be seen as surprising.

    Except byelections very rarely follow general polling. The swings are usually much larger.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,566
    algarkirk said:

    IANAE and have not followed the Hamilton election much, but if I understood correctly Curtice was saying this morning that the result was very much in line with general current polling expectations and should not be seen as surprising.

    Hmmm... Post-event rationalisation?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @AllieRenison

    Elon Musk has been replying to clips of Steve Bannon calling for his businesses to be seized by the US govt with “peak/communist retard” numerous times over the last 12 hours

    I have no more popcorn left…

    https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1930886652244762709
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It is possible to lose your deposit and win a by-election.

    25 candidates all polling circa 4%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    I'm old enough to remember being told this would never happen.

    Ukrainian Air Force F-16s are now directly supporting ground assault operations.

    Seen here, a Ukrainian F-16 drops a load of GBU-39 glide bombs on a Russian trench outside of Tetkino, Kursk Oblast, with troops from the 225th Assault Regiment following to capture the position.
    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1930665565359649133
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    FPT
    Roger said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Roger said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Watching former Labour supporter Michelle Mone get eviscerated on the BBC.

    What have I learned? She appears to be a bullshitter and the glitterati despise her East End Glasgow peasantry. And in his own mind David Cameron is head and shoulders Britain's greatest ever Prime Minister.

    I suspect if there is a single sacrificial lamb for the Johnson Government PPE scandal, that lamb might be blonde.

    I found her surprisingly likable at the beginning. She had an intuitive sense of how to sell herself and her product and she worked really hard against the odds. A brilliantly paced documentary which unfolded like a Shakespearian tragedy where the flaw in her character revealed itself quite late on with few clues up until the Mrs Rod Stewart moment and then it was downhill all the way.......
    It came across that essentially old money despises new money (although it turned out she didn't have any of that either).

    Attacking her because she claimed Wozniak was a childhood hero is something the Johnsonian class would never be questioned over. She is basically being told to get back in her lane.

    Mind you her self-promotion was remarkable in its lack of self awareness, and Dougie? Grift (a term used about him in the piece) doesn't begin to cover his career.

    Nonetheless, why is she the individual being uniquely chased for the PPE grift? She and Dougie made £60m plus. What happened to the other several billion then?
    That's a good point. The snobbery towards her was the reason she came across so well at the beginning I think. She really was the plucky young girl from Glasgow taking on the world...

    In retrospect (I watched it a week ago) maybe the real morality tale is the depressing one that the rags to riches stories are doomed to failure and only those born with a silver spoon can succeed.

    There were some unpleasant characters in that story and a bit too much gloating. Though having decided she was part of Johnson's mob and having declared herself a Tory what could she expect?
    Laura Kuennsberg (old money Scotland) was particularly visceral in her disdain. Some of the personal criticism was probably valid and the attempts from old money to black ball her from the Lords was quite up front, and I suspect in some ways justified. It was a fascinating exercise in social mobility, or the lack thereof.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    edited June 6
    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It's not just PB, the BBC Editor Chris Mason is very much on the Reform won, despite getting fewer votes than Labour and the SNP, camp.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    My pic for the day, because, why not ?


  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    ;
    Mexicanpete said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It's not just PB, the BBC Editor Chris Mason is very much on the Reform won, despite getting fewer votes than Labour and the SNP, camp.
    In some ways, Third and losing your chairman is the new First Minister
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    TimS said:

    On Trump and Musk: I am torn about who I want to win this spat. Neither would be good. There was a lot to feared about a billionaire oligarch having unfettered access to the levers of government in the world’s largest power. There is also a lot to be feared about a president becoming ever more omnipotent. It’s more than Boris vs Dom, it’s Putin vs Prigozhin. Hopefully both will damage each other.

    Putin v Progozhin doesn't bode well for Musk's health.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,091
    edited June 6
    Mexicanpete said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It's not just PB, the BBC Editor Chris Mason is very much on the Reform won, despite getting fewer votes than Labour and the SNP, camp.
    TBF it was a stonking vote for Reform even if they came third. Farage parties really shouldn't be doing this well in Scotland.

    The main story is SNP doing badly, even if not badly enough to be out of government at the next Holyrood election.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,728
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I hope you all read point 6 in the header.

    As Eliot wrote:'Humility is endless'. Your own more than most.

    We stand in awe of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Mexicanpete said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It's not just PB, the BBC Editor Chris Mason is very much on the Reform won, despite getting fewer votes than Labour and the SNP, camp.
    A less gushing, and more credible assessment from their Scottish political correspondent.
    ..However, it's not just first and second place which merit some analysis.
    Reform UK, who finished third with about 7,000 votes, weren't actually that far behind first place Labour.
    This contest turned out to be a tight three-horse race.
    The new-ish party was hoping for second. They've fallen slightly short of that, but will still be fairly happy with their performance...
  • vikvik Posts: 465
    Scott_xP said:

    @AllieRenison

    Elon Musk has been replying to clips of Steve Bannon calling for his businesses to be seized by the US govt with “peak/communist retard” numerous times over the last 12 hours

    I have no more popcorn left…

    https://x.com/AllieRenison/status/1930886652244762709

    Jonathan van Last at The Bulwark has written a great opinion piece on the strategic implications of the feud for the various players:

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/taking-the-trump-musk-war-seriously
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,745
    Mexicanpete said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It's not just PB, the BBC Editor Chris Mason is very much on the Reform won, despite getting fewer votes than Labour and the SNP, camp.
    They increased their vote by 26% from nowhere, which is surely quite newsworthy and makes them the best-performing party, I'd have thought
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I hope you all read point 6 in the header.

    As Eliot wrote:'Humility is endless'. Your own more than most.

    We stand in awe of it.
    My friends quote Robert Picard to me

    'I always thought you needed a little humiliation. Or was it humility? Either would do.'
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,539
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It is possible to lose your deposit and win a by-election.

    25 candidates all polling circa 4%.
    Labour retained their deposit. That helpfully manages to be both true and in line with the grand media narrative.

    headline: “Labour managed to retain their deposit in the Hamilton by-election in the face of a Reform surge”.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,560
    Well done Labour. I’d rather they won than the Nits


    Not a bad job by Reform
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It is possible to lose your deposit and win a by-election.

    25 candidates all polling circa 4%.
    Labour retained their deposit. That helpfully manages to be both true and in line with the grand media narrative.

    headline: “Labour managed to retain their deposit in the Hamilton by-election in the face of a Reform surge”.
    It's a bit like those boat race results.

    Cambridge finished second/Oxford finished last.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,805
    edited June 6
    I think someone should tell the winning candidate that just because you’re a member of the Lodge that you don’t need to wear orange shoes.


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    Outstanding

    https://x.com/AutismCapital/status/1930753167500996869
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    Benpointer said:

    algarkirk said:

    IANAE and have not followed the Hamilton election much, but if I understood correctly Curtice was saying this morning that the result was very much in line with general current polling expectations and should not be seen as surprising.

    Hmmm... Post-event rationalisation?
    Maybe, and I say I am not an expert, especially on Scottish politics, but this is Electoral Calculus current projection for the Westminster seat of Hamilton and Clyde valley:

    Lab 34
    SNP 30
    Reform 20
    Con 10

    and that's with Reform predicted to get 362 seats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,560
    Hurrah I’m flying home. Luxembourg has been fun but, you know, there’s only so much you can do in Luxembourg. And the food. Omg. Did I mention the food? Maybe?

    I do recommend the best hotel room in the country. Sixth floor suite, Le Royal. Brilliant Japanese loo with warm seats. I know that’s not that exciting but…. a warm loo seat is an amazing thing

    To tie this up with politics I would vote for the party that made Japanese toilets obligatory across the UK. In fact I might even START that party and that will be our ONLY policy and we’d WIN
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    BBC's Justin Webb blaming the failure of the Thames Water bailout on the Minister's ban on shareholder bonuses.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    Mexicanpete said:

    BBC's Justin Webb blaming the failure of the Thames Water bailout on the Minister's ban on shareholder bonuses.

    Not true but if the ban on shareholder bonuses unless you meet ofwat’s water quality rules discourages cowboys from buying the companies I don’t think anyone is going to see a real downside.

    Because Ofwat should have been doing so 25 years ago and if they had Thames Water wouldn’t be in this mess
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,246
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I think someone should tell the winning candidate that just because you’re a member of the Lodge that you don’t need to wear orange shoes.


    As a frequent wearer of brown shoes/loafers I can confirm they do look orange under certain lighting conditions.

    I also had a brown suit that under disco lights looked orange, I learned this at a wedding with a Northern Irish groom.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,693
    edited June 6
    Good morning from the Alhambra.

    If Musk gets deported as some want surely he can come back by claiming asylum.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    kjh said:

    If Musk gets deported as some wantbsurely he can come back by claiming asylum.

    Only if they deport him to South Africa. I’m sure El Salvador would happily take him and that seems to be the preferred dumping ground
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    eek said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    BBC's Justin Webb blaming the failure of the Thames Water bailout on the Minister's ban on shareholder bonuses.

    Not true but if the ban on shareholder bonuses unless you meet ofwat’s water quality rules discourages cowboys from buying the companies I don’t think anyone is going to see a real downside.

    Because Ofwat should have been doing so 25 years ago and if they had Thames Water wouldn’t be in this mess
    Webb, I think was simply playing Devil's advocate to Steve Reed.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,251
    Leon said:

    Hurrah I’m flying home. Luxembourg has been fun but, you know, there’s only so much you can do in Luxembourg. And the food. Omg. Did I mention the food? Maybe?

    I do recommend the best hotel room in the country. Sixth floor suite, Le Royal. Brilliant Japanese loo with warm seats. I know that’s not that exciting but…. a warm loo seat is an amazing thing

    To tie this up with politics I would vote for the party that made Japanese toilets obligatory across the UK. In fact I might even START that party and that will be our ONLY policy and we’d WIN

    Is Le Royal still one of the most soulless hotels in the world? Always found it depressing, especially the 70s throwback piano lounge bar.

    Only vaguely interesting time I had in that hotel was turning up to check in as Condoleeza Roce and team were checking in so walked into the lobby with millions of security service goons in the way and being obnoxious.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    Mexicanpete said:

    eek said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    BBC's Justin Webb blaming the failure of the Thames Water bailout on the Minister's ban on shareholder bonuses.

    Not true but if the ban on shareholder bonuses unless you meet ofwat’s water quality rules discourages cowboys from buying the companies I don’t think anyone is going to see a real downside.

    Because Ofwat should have been doing so 25 years ago and if they had Thames Water wouldn’t be in this mess
    Webb, I think was simply playing Devil's advocate to Steve Reed.
    There was a similar extract on the radio 2 news at 7am, so I don’t think it was designed as an argument
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    kjh said:

    Good morning from the Alhambra.

    If Musk gets deported as some want surely he can come back by claiming asylum.

    Hope you're enjoying your holiday. The 'good morning from the Alhambra' bit does however give me a vision of you waking up, bleary eyed, in an aged Seat seven-seater having been kicked out of the house :hushed:
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,341
    Leon said:

    Well done Labour. I’d rather they won than the Nits


    Not a bad job by Reform

    Hang on, I thought voting Labour was basically treason at this point?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    Morning all.

    Congrats to Labour!

    Better luck next time to SNP and Reform!

    LOL to Tories and LibDems!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    edited June 6
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I think someone should tell the winning candidate that just because you’re a member of the Lodge that you don’t need to wear orange shoes.


    At least they aren't suede.

    I have a pair that colour - for dancing.

    TBF at least they aren't blue trousers, or Rishi length Jermyn Street pedal-pushers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @jamesrball.com‬

    The governing party winning a by-election is *always* a win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election they were expected to lose is a *good* win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election in a seat *they didn't previously hold* is a great day for its leader.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3lqwc7ev3mc2r
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    @thehistoryguy.bsky.social‬

    Mega historical bust ups. A thread.

    1. King John and Philip of France

    The powerful foreigner cynically helped put the incompetent, odious sex offender on the throne only to launch an all out war against him.

    John bankrupted his kingdom, fell out with everyone and shat himself to death

    https://bsky.app/profile/thehistoryguy.bsky.social/post/3lqwboxzza22r
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Mexicanpete said:

    BBC's Justin Webb blaming the failure of the Thames Water bailout on the Minister's ban on shareholder bonuses.

    Justin Webb spouting rubbish...
    Surely not ?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,601
    Good morning

    Fascinating result in Scotland and a relief for Labour

    Sky interviewed a polling expert who said that the winner was undoubtedly Reform, and with the electoral system in Scotland [ and Wales] next year's Holyrood elections will see a substantial number of Reform members

    It must be remembered that if Reform can do this in Scotland, then Labour in Wales in 2026 may well lose their monopoly in power since devolution
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    Good morning everyone.

    FPT
    How hard did SLab campaign and mobilise on this?

    Did they learn the lesson of a loss by a squeak in Runcorn?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    The cult remains strong.

    Among Republicans - "If you had to choose, who would you side with more between the two?"

    Trump: 71%
    Musk: 6%

    Neither: 12%

    YouGov / June 5, 2025
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1930810812018635253
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,026
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It is possible to lose your deposit and win a by-election.

    25 candidates all polling circa 4%.
    Labour retained their deposit. That helpfully manages to be both true and in line with the grand media narrative.

    headline: “Labour managed to retain their deposit in the Hamilton by-election in the face of a Reform surge”.
    What was "supposed" to happen was for SNP to hold seat with Reform storming into second. It's what I expected, tbh, and evidently what media expected. This would have played into Swinney's narrative that the contest in Scotland was between SNP and Farage. A big, big win for both sets of Nats, but obviously the bigger win for the Scottish brand.

    The SLAB victory has upended that narrative, but I expect it may take the commentators some time to catch up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,560
    edited June 6
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    Hurrah I’m flying home. Luxembourg has been fun but, you know, there’s only so much you can do in Luxembourg. And the food. Omg. Did I mention the food? Maybe?

    I do recommend the best hotel room in the country. Sixth floor suite, Le Royal. Brilliant Japanese loo with warm seats. I know that’s not that exciting but…. a warm loo seat is an amazing thing

    To tie this up with politics I would vote for the party that made Japanese toilets obligatory across the UK. In fact I might even START that party and that will be our ONLY policy and we’d WIN

    Is Le Royal still one of the most soulless hotels in the world? Always found it depressing, especially the 70s throwback piano lounge bar.

    Only vaguely interesting time I had in that hotel was turning up to check in as Condoleeza Roce and team were checking in so walked into the lobby with millions of security service goons in the way and being obnoxious.
    Luxembourg City in toto is a bit soulless. Or a lot soulless. And actually I quite like Le Royal because


    1. 5 star hotels, free and on expenses are just fun. I love the living-in-a-womb feeling. You don’t have to leave the cocoon. The G&Ts are excellent. The pool is nice. The decor soothes

    2. The other guests are quite interesting. A lot of rich old important people - Eurocrats and lobbyists I suspect. You hear more English than any other language

    3. Decent breakfast. Which is the only good meal in the country. To eat well in Luxembourg you must have breakfast three times a day
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,704
    Burgessian said:

    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It is possible to lose your deposit and win a by-election.

    25 candidates all polling circa 4%.
    Labour retained their deposit. That helpfully manages to be both true and in line with the grand media narrative.

    headline: “Labour managed to retain their deposit in the Hamilton by-election in the face of a Reform surge”.
    What was "supposed" to happen was for SNP to hold seat with Reform storming into second. It's what I expected, tbh, and evidently what media expected. This would have played into Swinney's narrative that the contest in Scotland was between SNP and Farage. A big, big win for both sets of Nats, but obviously the bigger win for the Scottish brand.

    The SLAB victory has upended that narrative, but I expect it may take the commentators some time to catch up.
    https://x.com/JAHeale/status/1930894551721337340
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesrball.com‬

    The governing party winning a by-election is *always* a win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election they were expected to lose is a *good* win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election in a seat *they didn't previously hold* is a great day for its leader.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3lqwc7ev3mc2r

    The governing party being the SNP seems to have escaped him
  • lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 62
    Nigelb said:

    The cult remains strong.

    Among Republicans - "If you had to choose, who would you side with more between the two?"

    Trump: 71%
    Musk: 6%

    Neither: 12%

    YouGov / June 5, 2025
    https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1930810812018635253

    Trump's lead over Harris: 1.5%
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    eek said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    BBC's Justin Webb blaming the failure of the Thames Water bailout on the Minister's ban on shareholder bonuses.

    Not true but if the ban on shareholder bonuses unless you meet ofwat’s water quality rules discourages cowboys from buying the companies I don’t think anyone is going to see a real downside.

    Because Ofwat should have been doing so 25 years ago and if they had Thames Water wouldn’t be in this mess
    Peak "But the Bonus is Sacred" was when Jim Bridentine, the NASA administrator, told Northrup Grumman that continuous underperformance by 100s of % and continual budget breaches by 100s of % on James Webb Space Telescope, meant that he wasn't going to sign off on bonuses.

    Strangely, in the following months, they got back on schedule, finally. And even finished the telescope.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    wooliedyed said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesrball.com‬

    The governing party winning a by-election is *always* a win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election they were expected to lose is a *good* win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election in a seat *they didn't previously hold* is a great day for its leader.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3lqwc7ev3mc2r

    The governing party being the SNP seems to have escaped him
    It was a UK by-election election.

    But it says something that the SNP lost 1/3 of it's vote which means they were either complacent, didn't grasp the scale of their problem or don't have the ground troops to get the vote out.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    I was initially very impressed by Labour's victory here, but it's worth noting that the comparison is with 2021, which was pretty much the Labour nadir under Keir Starmer (until now).

    Massive swing to the right, of course.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,560
    It is quite striking how many conversations here are focused on developments
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,551
    I woke up this morning thinking I hope the SNP have beaten Reform. I didn't even imagine this fabulous result. Great to push back against parochial nationalisms of all flavours.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 896
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    FPT
    How hard did SLab campaign and mobilise on this?

    Did they learn the lesson of a loss by a squeak in Runcorn?

    GOTV is still the basis of any campaign. Reform are running on a wave of positive media support (click-bait/cutn'paste press releases). When the positive wave turns negative, we'll see if Reform have the ground game of the legacy parties.

    Note the level of UKIP support in Hamilton (great racecourse by the way)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,522
    LostPassword said:

    I was initially very impressed by Labour's victory here, but it's worth noting that the comparison is with 2021, which was pretty much the Labour nadir under Keir Starmer (until now).

    Massive swing to the right, of course.

    The votes for SNP and Reform (over half the total) were votes for nationalist social democratic parties with a populist appeal based on running things better than someone else and free stuff for the right sort.

    They are far closer to each other than is realised. Naturally they hate each other.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    An interesting little side note to the by election. The Con, Green and LD shares and the general result of the minor parties is very very similar to the regional list result from 2011 the first time this seat was contested, then the SNP/Lab has been mashed and cut into 3 including Reform.
    Just a little observation but whilst Greens should do a bit better, I think LDs and Con are probably looking at 2011 type 'nadir' results at next year's Holyrood election in seat terms. For SCon its back to Annie as if Ruth was never here (in fact I can see them winning the same 3 constituencies as a max - Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire and Ayr)
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    edited June 6
    I see reform thinks that a teenager is a suitable person to lead child services at Leicestershire council

    And a 22 year old leads adult social care

    https://new.basw.co.uk/about-social-work/psw-magazine/articles/reform-councillors-aged-19-and-22-charge-childrens-and

    Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,986
    Dopermean said:

    R4 today programme needs some new US commentators, Webb (self-proclaimed US expert), Sarah Smith and their US expert (a Trump/Musk fanboy) all very surprised that Trump vs Musk had descended rapidly into a vicious personally abusive spat.

    Yes, they're rubbish.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135
    Nigelb said:

    Dopermean said:

    R4 today programme needs some new US commentators, Webb (self-proclaimed US expert), Sarah Smith and their US expert (a Trump/Musk fanboy) all very surprised that Trump vs Musk had descended rapidly into a vicious personally abusive spat.

    Yes, they're rubbish.
    I thought I heard Smith say last night it wasn't surprising just happened faster than most expected. Which is fair comment I think. Even the Bulwark crowd think it happened faster than expected.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    a
    eek said:

    I see reform thinks that a teenager is a suitable person to lead child services at Lancashire council

    And a 22 year old leads adult social care

    https://new.basw.co.uk/about-social-work/psw-magazine/articles/reform-councillors-aged-19-and-22-charge-childrens-and

    Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense

    Why is age a concern? Given the long record of councils on running stuff, I can think of a couple of teenagers who would be an improvement.

    What is a real concern is their professed & documented beliefs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135
    eek said:

    I see reform thinks that a teenager is a suitable person to lead child services at Lancashire council

    And a 22 year old leads adult social care

    https://new.basw.co.uk/about-social-work/psw-magazine/articles/reform-councillors-aged-19-and-22-charge-childrens-and

    Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense

    Is he a software engineer?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    algarkirk said:

    IANAE and have not followed the Hamilton election much, but if I understood correctly Curtice was saying this morning that the result was very much in line with general current polling expectations and should not be seen as surprising.

    Although he said Ref had done a bit better than the Scottish polls would have indicated.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,586
    Is it ok to buy a Tesla now?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,224
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Is it ok to buy a Tesla now?

    No but that’s because there has been better options since about 2022.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    Andy_JS said:

    algarkirk said:

    IANAE and have not followed the Hamilton election much, but if I understood correctly Curtice was saying this morning that the result was very much in line with general current polling expectations and should not be seen as surprising.

    Although he said Ref had done a bit better than the Scottish polls would have indicated.
    He also said if Labour MPs use Hamilton as a reason to 'stand down' vs Starmer they are very much misreading the result!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,805
    wooliedyed said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @jamesrball.com‬

    The governing party winning a by-election is *always* a win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election they were expected to lose is a *good* win for its leader.

    The governing party winning a by-election in a seat *they didn't previously hold* is a great day for its leader.

    https://bsky.app/profile/jamesrball.com/post/3lqwc7ev3mc2r

    The governing party being the SNP seems to have escaped him
    Only a matter of time.
    Apparently.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,586
    eek said:

    I see reform thinks that a teenager is a suitable person to lead child services at Leicestershire council

    And a 22 year old leads adult social care

    https://new.basw.co.uk/about-social-work/psw-magazine/articles/reform-councillors-aged-19-and-22-charge-childrens-and

    Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense

    These fecking numpties are now in charge of my mum's dementia care.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    edited June 6
    Time for Zia Yusuf to enter the chat surely?!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,044
    Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up.
    Tesla drivers think they own the road top.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    eek said:

    I see reform thinks that a teenager is a suitable person to lead child services at Leicestershire council

    And a 22 year old leads adult social care

    https://new.basw.co.uk/about-social-work/psw-magazine/articles/reform-councillors-aged-19-and-22-charge-childrens-and

    Did all the other councilors take 2 steps back when the positions were offered because this doesn’t make sense

    These fecking numpties are now in charge of my mum's dementia care.
    IIRC Labour was responsible for dropping the age at which someone could be an election candidate from 21 to 18. I would have kept it at 21.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,866
    PB majority at its glorious best over the last 24 hours:

    - it will be close between the SNP and Reform, with the SNP just edging it. Labour nowhere.
    - as predicted, it was a tight three-way fight, and Labour were lucky to edge it.
    - Reform were the real winners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.

    It seems plenty of Scottish
    nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,412
    TimS said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DougSeal said:

    I see Labour won, but did they lose their deposit, as I saw confidently predicted on here? I had assumed that the two things were mutually exclusive but I am no expert on Scottish matters - there’s a term for that I think.

    It is possible to lose your deposit and win a by-election.

    25 candidates all polling circa 4%.
    Labour retained their deposit. That helpfully manages to be both true and in line with the grand media narrative.

    headline: “Labour managed to retain their deposit in the Hamilton by-election in the face of a Reform surge”.
    How did the LibDems do? :lol:
  • SonofContrarianSonofContrarian Posts: 175
    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Well done Labour. I’d rather they won than the Nits


    Not a bad job by Reform

    Hang on, I thought voting Labour was basically treason at this point?
    Everyone loves to be on the winning team..😚
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    Northern_Al said:

    PB majority at its glorious best over the last 24 hours:

    - it will be close between the SNP and Reform, with the SNP just edging it. Labour nowhere.
    - as predicted, it was a tight three-way fight, and Labour were lucky to edge it.
    - Reform were the real winners.

    It was so close between the top 3 that most of the predictions weren't that far off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    squareroot2 said:

    Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up.
    Tesla drivers think they own the road top.

    20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    Battlebus said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    FPT
    How hard did SLab campaign and mobilise on this?

    Did they learn the lesson of a loss by a squeak in Runcorn?

    GOTV is still the basis of any campaign. Reform are running on a wave of positive media support (click-bait/cutn'paste press releases). When the positive wave turns negative, we'll see if Reform have the ground game of the legacy parties.

    Note the level of UKIP support in Hamilton (great racecourse by the way)
    New UKIP or Old UKIP (with the switch around ~2016 when Farage left) are somewhat different animals, with the new UKIP being aligned with groups such as Turning Point UK and more ideological. By comparison Farage imo is a marketeer riding whichever horse (or set of 2-3 horses) is to hand.

    Are you remarking on how many votes they received, or how few?

    In Hamilton New UKIP has received 0.1-0.2% of the vote, whilst Old UKIP peaked at around 2.5% in the mid-2010s.

    Compared to eg my area (ie Dennis Skinner / Geoff Hoon country), Old UKIP peaked at 20%+ in 2015 (benefiting from Jason Zadrozny standing down for alleged-scandal reasons, and also the BNP collapsing), and those people imo now form a big chunk of Lee Anderson's base to which he panders. New UKIP do not exist locally in visible politics.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,728
    SonofContrarian said:

    Selebian said:

    Leon said:

    Well done Labour. I’d rather they won than the Nits


    Not a bad job by Reform

    Hang on, I thought voting Labour was basically treason at this point?
    Everyone loves to be on the winning team..😚
    The Daily Moan is hilarious today. It has basically found other things to talk about.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 11,035
    Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic'
    Utterly delusional.
    Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,936
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Good morning

    Fascinating result in Scotland and a relief for Labour

    Sky interviewed a polling expert who said that the winner was undoubtedly Reform, and with the electoral system in Scotland [ and Wales] next year's Holyrood elections will see a substantial number of Reform members

    It must be remembered that if Reform can do this in Scotland, then Labour in Wales in 2026 may well lose their monopoly in power since devolution

    On the Holyrood swing last night it would be a Unionist majority next year even if the SNP still win most seats.

    Plaid might win most seats too in the Senedd but would have to do a deal with Labour still to govern
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,560
    wooliedyed said:

    Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic'
    Utterly delusional.
    Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'

    Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
  • SonofContrarianSonofContrarian Posts: 175
    Any Derby tips for tomorrow then?
    I'm going for Lazy Griff..partly for the name, partly because it came 2nd in the Chester Vase and partly because it's available at 100/1..Im sure it will go as well as pb.coms Hamilton predictions..😚
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    squareroot2 said:

    Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up.
    Tesla drivers think they own the road top.

    In the UK Tesla are currently offering interest free finance over 4 years to buy back market share. That's why our local expert Just Got Another Tesla.

    IMO they will need to go further as the new Model Y starts at about £41-42kk. They need the base model to be £39999 AND have the free finance.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 32,161
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.

    It seems plenty of Scottish
    nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives

    Your team RefCon won! Oh wait it doesn't work quite like that...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,128
    Malmesbury said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up.
    Tesla drivers think they own the road top.

    20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
    Any recommendations on public charger networks?
    My experience so far, MER and SSE, have been a total shit-show.
    Slow / not charging and crashing out between taking initial deposit and final payment - so costing even more than the punchy £/kwhr.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,135
    Leon said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic'
    Utterly delusional.
    Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'

    Actually I’ll defend him. A new party coming from nowhere - literally - to nearly win a seat in previously hostile territory is indeed seismic. We’ve just gotten used to the rise of Reform being seismic. It’s still seismic
    It's certainly not "utterly delusional".

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,091
    edited June 6
    squareroot2 said:

    Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up.
    Tesla drivers think they own the road top.

    One of the best designs*, if no longer head and shoulders better than the rest, access to the best charging network and the best maintenance service including call-outs to where your car is.

    Shame about Elon Musk.

    * X/Y models. Cybertruck excluded obviously.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,899
    Dopermean said:

    Malmesbury said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Why would anyone buy an overpriced Tesla that takes a good hour to charge up.
    Tesla drivers think they own the road top.

    20-80% takes about 20 minutes at a high performance charger, for a number of modern EVs, including Tesla.
    Any recommendations on public charger networks?
    My experience so far, MER and SSE, have been a total shit-show.
    Slow / not charging and crashing out between taking initial deposit and final payment - so costing even more than the punchy £/kwhr.
    The charging networks, outside Tesla, are a shit show.

    Which is why they won the charging standard war in the US - despite the competing standard being backed by every other car company and the government.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,883
    edited June 6
    HYUFD said:

    Clearly a boost for Labour and bad result for the SNP. Rather amusing the SNP vote ended up down even more than the Conservative vote in the end.

    It seems plenty of Scottish
    nationalists are attracted by Reform not just rightwing conservatives


    FPT:

    The narrative developing here that the SNP are losing significant numbers of voters to Reform is just... I think this is a coping mechanism for PB Tories.

    Looking at the Survation poll - a full Scottish poll but I'm quoting sub-samples from it - 4% of the SNP's GE '24 vote is going to Reform. Whichever way you cut, the SNP is simply not the main source the source of votes - it looks like nearly half of the SCon vote is going Reform, for example.

    But the bigger story is that the core Reform base is highly energised (voter retention is 90%+) and they are invigorating lots of new voters. That's the same in Scotland as in England.

    (I guess Scottish nationalist is different to SNP supporter. Someone singing Rule Britannia at Ibrox could be described as a nationalist from Scotland...).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,387
    wooliedyed said:

    Richard Tice describing third place as 'seismic'
    Utterly delusional.
    Its a good result, third is not and has never been 'seismic'

    It's not far off it in my opinion. Scotland is probably the worst place in the UK for RefUK, although it could also be London.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,631
    Scott_xP said:

    @thehistoryguy.bsky.social‬

    Mega historical bust ups. A thread.

    1. King John and Philip of France

    The powerful foreigner cynically helped put the incompetent, odious sex offender on the throne only to launch an all out war against him.

    John bankrupted his kingdom, fell out with everyone and shat himself to death

    https://bsky.app/profile/thehistoryguy.bsky.social/post/3lqwboxzza22r

    On King John, he's one possible comparator to Mr Trump. By the same author:

    "Princess Joan was sent off to marry Hugh de Lusignan but somehow after John’s death Hugh married the mother rather than the daughter when Isobel returned to Angouleme in 1217, perhaps not surprising given that Joan was still a child."
    https://thehistoryjar.com/2015/09/14/king-johns-women/
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