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Reform’s leads falls by 5% if you exclude non-voters – politicalbetting.com

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  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,613
    edited June 1
    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    Looks like a massive attack by the Ukrainians on Russian strategic aviation, and also several attacks on Russian rail logistics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971
    At least 31 Palestinians are killed while heading to a Gaza aid hub, officials and witnesses say

    https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-hostages-aid-06-01-2025-67688833abb96fc068c42d10da90a0a4
    At least 31 people were killed and scores were wounded on Sunday as they were on their way to receive food in the Gaza Strip, according to health officials and multiple witnesses. The witnesses said Israeli forces fired on crowds around a kilometer (1,000 yards) away from an aid site run by an Israeli-backed foundation.

    The army released a brief statement saying it was “currently unaware of injuries caused by (Israeli military) fire within the Humanitarian Aid distribution site..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Or a French Impressionist liked to go trainspotting in Dulwich? (Naturally, he painted rather than used a camera.)

    https://artuk.org/discover/artworks/lordship-lane-station-dulwich-207378
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."
  • Look at me.

    I am the moderator now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971
    This a full scale decent into Orbanism.

    The White House this week convened nearly a dozen agencies to brainstorm additional punitive measures against Harvard, with forthcoming actions expected from State, Treasury, HHS and DOJ.
    https://x.com/SophiaCai99/status/1928501741479145786

    Blatantly illegal, of course, but the damage will be permanent.
    Every time the administration loses in court, they just plough on. While attacking the judiciary for doing their job.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,519

    MattW said:

    I broadly think Labour has the right solution in terms of delivery being the only way they will win again. All is not lost yet.

    But it is what they are delivering that ultimately matters and whether voters will feel the impacts of it. It is still early to judge that.

    Their comms though, are not good.

    I tend to agree there, but I think you are perhaps too cautious.

    The opposition are a collection of headless chickens, the Conservatives, and a collection of populist-gormless bullshitters, Reform. And the Lib Dems.

    The Cons are still tearing themselves apart, and Reform need to present a kaleidoscope of ever-changing rhetoric to distract their followers from the reality, and prevent any detailed examination. The Cons need a perhaps 2 or 3 term sort-out if they are to ever go anywhere, and Reform need to keep the sleight of hand twirling.

    For the Govt, imo, they have a decent strategy and are doing many of the correct things, but it's delivery PLUS a more boldness in reform, and decent communications. Much of the PLUS is not here.

    I'm not sure that the delivery which is coming into sight in places is big enough and soon enough. And the need to skewer all 3 of the Con leadership, the Right-wing fringe Cons such as Jenrick, Philp, and by the sound of it Katie Lam, and pin Farage down.

    Perhaps Sir Keir should have been the son of a juggler.

    I don't see a comms or a political strategy to achieve that.
    I agree.

    They need to do something that cuts across everyone. Stop the boats.
    Yes. The thing about 'Smash the gangs, stop the boats' is threefold. Labour made a huge play of it in the campaign; it isn't a thing which costs £300 trillion; and if (big if) it's doable, it is doable within months rather than 10 years. So it's a very obvious fraud on the voter/failure to have a plan/general uselessness issue. And, like WFA, it's simple to comprehend so even the Mail and BBC understand it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637

    Look at me.

    I am the moderator now.

    Congrtatulations. Er, which kirk?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,484
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    I broadly think Labour has the right solution in terms of delivery being the only way they will win again. All is not lost yet.

    But it is what they are delivering that ultimately matters and whether voters will feel the impacts of it. It is still early to judge that.

    Their comms though, are not good.

    I tend to agree there, but I think you are perhaps too cautious.

    The opposition are a collection of headless chickens, the Conservatives, and a collection of populist-gormless bullshitters, Reform. And the Lib Dems.

    The Cons are still tearing themselves apart, and Reform need to present a kaleidoscope of ever-changing rhetoric to distract their followers from the reality, and prevent any detailed examination. The Cons need a perhaps 2 or 3 term sort-out if they are to ever go anywhere, and Reform need to keep the sleight of hand twirling.

    For the Govt, imo, they have a decent strategy and are doing many of the correct things, but it's delivery PLUS a more boldness in reform, and decent communications. Much of the PLUS is not here.

    I'm not sure that the delivery which is coming into sight in places is big enough and soon enough. And the need to skewer all 3 of the Con leadership, the Right-wing fringe Cons such as Jenrick, Philp, and by the sound of it Katie Lam, and pin Farage down.

    Perhaps Sir Keir should have been the son of a juggler.

    I don't see a comms or a political strategy to achieve that.
    I agree.

    They need to do something that cuts across everyone. Stop the boats.
    Yes. The thing about 'Smash the gangs, stop the boats' is threefold. Labour made a huge play of it in the campaign; it isn't a thing which costs £300 trillion; and if (big if) it's doable, it is doable within months rather than 10 years. So it's a very obvious fraud on the voter/failure to have a plan/general uselessness issue. And, like WFA, it's simple to comprehend so even the Mail and BBC understand it.
    Yet their first act upon entering government was to cancel a scheme that would have acted as a deterrence to those making the crossing.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,665
    Afternoon all :)

    The problem with "public sector pensions" is they come in different shapes and sizes. Police pensions are not civil service pensions which are in turn not local Government pensions which are in turn not thed pensions for firefighters or ambulance staff or the armed forces.

    Each has different benefits and different levels of contribution but I would imagine the civil service and local Government pensions would be the easier target. Attacking firefighter pensions might come with more electoral "risk", shall we say.

    The current arrangement allows for new staff to opt in to LPGS (most do) but there could be a closure of the scheme to new applicants and we could make ALL public pensions contributory in order to make them funded.

    Changes to the LPGS made by successive Governments have increased contributions and reduced payments - perhaps removing the index linkage to civil service pensions might be a sound move.

    All this, however, sounds like the revenge of the failed private sector pension market and its inability to deliver the kind of returns once so strongly touted by prospective providers.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,917
    Nigelb said:

    At least 31 Palestinians are killed while heading to a Gaza aid hub, officials and witnesses say

    https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-hostages-aid-06-01-2025-67688833abb96fc068c42d10da90a0a4
    At least 31 people were killed and scores were wounded on Sunday as they were on their way to receive food in the Gaza Strip, according to health officials and multiple witnesses. The witnesses said Israeli forces fired on crowds around a kilometer (1,000 yards) away from an aid site run by an Israeli-backed foundation.

    The army released a brief statement saying it was “currently unaware of injuries caused by (Israeli military) fire within the Humanitarian Aid distribution site..

    The Israeli's say that they want to destroy Hamas but surely those young men and women, boys and girls, who survive are much more likely to be radicalised, embittered and vengeful as a result of this sort of action.
    Their 'Hamas' might not be called Hamas but it'll be just as hard.
    The only slight hope is that they won't be as vicious as those who took part in the Oct 7th raid. But I have to admit, I doubt it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,613
    edited June 1
    Stocky said:

    First? The curse of a new thread.

    On driverless cars, I'm recently back from Phoenix and I took six trips in Waymo taxis.

    What an awful future this presents: no human contact, no interaction with a local of the city you are visiting. Your cash is going to a large corporation rather than a little guy of that locality. And this is before considering what would happen in an accident. I guarantee that in an incident between a Waymo car and a driver the latter would be automatically assumed to be at fault - machines don't make mistakes, right? The corporation will become very skilled in avoiding any suggestion of liability and the small guy will have no chance against this.

    It is time to enshrine into law what Joe Public assumes is obviously already there, right?: a car must have a driver.

    After all, legally, a car has to be in good enough condition for the road. Add to the existing list of conditions that it must have a driver.

    It's ideal for citizens of nowhere !

    But your desire is basically where we are at present - a self-driving car must have a driver, and the driver is responsible. There's also a section in the Highway Code, which we all of course read every time it changes:
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-highway-code/introduction#self-driving-vehicles

    There was an act in 2018: The Automated and Electric Vehicles Act 2018.

    What we don't have yet, which works elsewhere in Europe, is presumed liability (as a rebutable presumption) in collisions being with the road user with the Duty of Care in the hierarchy of users. For totally driverless cars that would make the operator fit suitable cameras and safety systems, and preserve records. Corporates will fight something like that like terriers.

    I listened to an interesting vid about self-driving trucks in Texas, an its potential impact on drivers:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQrQrOPmszE
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,519
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Nice example. Two more: Chichester has loads of stuff, but few make it to the Gabriel Loire stained glass in the otherwise uninteresting RC St Richard's church.

    Tourists in York miss the magical medieval stained glass in All Saints North Street, it's a few yards off the tourist trail, its the best and you have in close up all to yourself.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255

    Nigelb said:

    At least 31 Palestinians are killed while heading to a Gaza aid hub, officials and witnesses say

    https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-hostages-aid-06-01-2025-67688833abb96fc068c42d10da90a0a4
    At least 31 people were killed and scores were wounded on Sunday as they were on their way to receive food in the Gaza Strip, according to health officials and multiple witnesses. The witnesses said Israeli forces fired on crowds around a kilometer (1,000 yards) away from an aid site run by an Israeli-backed foundation.

    The army released a brief statement saying it was “currently unaware of injuries caused by (Israeli military) fire within the Humanitarian Aid distribution site..

    The Israeli's say that they want to destroy Hamas but surely those young men and women, boys and girls, who survive are much more likely to be radicalised, embittered and vengeful as a result of this sort of action.
    Their 'Hamas' might not be called Hamas but it'll be just as hard.
    The only slight hope is that they won't be as vicious as those who took part in the Oct 7th raid. But I have to admit, I doubt it.
    You can destroy an organisation like Hamas with destructive action on one hand to destroy the current organisation, as long as you also provide something constructive so that the next generation have something better to look forward to and to get involved with.

    Israel are failing because they aren't providing that alternative.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,917

    Nigelb said:

    At least 31 Palestinians are killed while heading to a Gaza aid hub, officials and witnesses say

    https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-news-hostages-aid-06-01-2025-67688833abb96fc068c42d10da90a0a4
    At least 31 people were killed and scores were wounded on Sunday as they were on their way to receive food in the Gaza Strip, according to health officials and multiple witnesses. The witnesses said Israeli forces fired on crowds around a kilometer (1,000 yards) away from an aid site run by an Israeli-backed foundation.

    The army released a brief statement saying it was “currently unaware of injuries caused by (Israeli military) fire within the Humanitarian Aid distribution site..

    The Israeli's say that they want to destroy Hamas but surely those young men and women, boys and girls, who survive are much more likely to be radicalised, embittered and vengeful as a result of this sort of action.
    Their 'Hamas' might not be called Hamas but it'll be just as hard.
    The only slight hope is that they won't be as vicious as those who took part in the Oct 7th raid. But I have to admit, I doubt it.
    You can destroy an organisation like Hamas with destructive action on one hand to destroy the current organisation, as long as you also provide something constructive so that the next generation have something better to look forward to and to get involved with.

    Israel are failing because they aren't providing that alternative.
    Agreed; they seem in fact to be doing the opposite.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    https://www.artdoc.photo/articles/the-family-of-man-as-an-example-of-human-dignity

    https://issues.aperture.org/article/1955/2/2/the-controversial-family-of-man

    “The scholarly reception of The Family of Man is greatly influenced by Roland Barthes who in 1957 criticized the exhibition for an essentialist depiction of human experiences such as birth, death, and work, and the removal of any historical specificity from this depiction. 2) Later, Allan Sekula viewed the exhibition as a populist ethnographic archive and “the epitome of American cold war liberalism” that “universalizes the bourgeois nuclear family” and therefore serves as an instrument of cultural colonialism. 3) Christopher Phillips, on the other hand, criticized Steichen for silencing the voice of individual photographers by decontextualizing their photographs and imposing his own narrative”

    https://fkmagazine.lv/2018/07/02/the-family-of-man-the-photography-exhibition-that-everybody-loves-to-hate/

    Barthes was actually quite an acute observer of photography. But kind of missed the point here.

    Sekula a far better photographer than critic.

    Phillips I'd never heard of, but must be this guy:
    https://tisch.nyu.edu/about/directory/photo/94813872.html
    Honestly. It’s amazing. Put any politics or prejudice aside and go see it, if you’re ever in the area

    It was known as “the greatest photographic exhibition in history” through the 50s and 60s - and it still has a good claim to that. Certainly the best I have ever seen

    And all the better for being hidden away in the middle of nowherestadt Luxembourg and housed in a restored 12th century chateau that was obliterated in the Ardennes Offensive and now largely unknown coz a bunch of fools - and jealous rivals? - dissed it

    And because it’s not a sequence of predictable oblong white rooms - but lots of weird medieval spaces and alcoves - the power of each suite of photos is even more surprising

    Noom factor 8. Right up there. Glorious
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,127
    Nigelb said:

    This a full scale decent into Orbanism.

    The White House this week convened nearly a dozen agencies to brainstorm additional punitive measures against Harvard, with forthcoming actions expected from State, Treasury, HHS and DOJ.
    https://x.com/SophiaCai99/status/1928501741479145786

    Blatantly illegal, of course, but the damage will be permanent.
    Every time the administration loses in court, they just plough on. While attacking the judiciary for doing their job.

    There's a rumour this all because Harvard rejected giving a place to Barron.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,960
    18 boats carrying 1,194 illegal migrants crossed yesterday.

    That’s the highest daily figure this year.

    Where are all the women and children?


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1929131768008827188?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,519

    Has anyone asked Reform what they will cut?

    Yes

    On Trevor Phillips this am

    Ending net zero

    Ending final salary schemes in public sector

    Ending the boats and asylum hotels

    Ending waste and bureaucracy in the public sector

    Sold! To that man in North Wales!

    It's all a bit "mom and apple pie". Tell the voters what they want to hear.

    Mainstream media are bigging up Reform at a remarkable rate.
    Reform are thinking the unthinkable. Questioning the unquestionable. No I’m not talking about migration. I’m talking about “Britain is broken”. And then talking about changing things.

    Problem is what they’re changing.

    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    “Ending final salary pensions”. Probably inevitable, though with the caveat that making people poorer doesn’t make people better off. Pension reform and welfare reform are crucial. But it can’t just be “cut” because cuts cost money

    “End the boats and asylum hotels”. Ok, there is genuine cost to save. But that isn’t where they want to stop, they want to end migration. Which has huge downside costs as migration fills holes that can’t just be filled with easy zero cost.

    “Ending waste and bureaucracy in the private sector”. Right ambition, wrong strategy. The waste is the structure. You can’t chop bits off the structure and save money because then what is left is even more inefficient. You need a new structure.

    So well done for actually starting the debate. Someone had to. But they don’t have any actual solutions. We can’t - as Starmer tried - just sneeringly say “it doesn’t add up” because neither does the status quo. Change is needed.
    Whereas I agree in principle, Reform probably need a landslide and then change the notion of Parliamentary Sovereignty to a parallel kingship as Trump is doing in America. If voters can't vote, or voters are restricted to vote Mugabe style, Reform might work.

    Getting rid of DOGE style irrelevance will not be electorally popular. When the GP surgery charges £200 per consultation, frequent flyer NHS uses will be outraged. They will be jumping in their cars and using the pay as you drive roads to get to an Amazon pillar box and send their letters of complaint to Nigel Farage at Mar a Lago.
    The U.K. already has the legal doctrine of the absolute power of Parliament.
    Indeed it does, and using it is slow and subject to considerable scrutiny. And everything you enact is (rightly) interpreted and constrained by the courts in the light of everything your predecessors in parliament have ever done, and 800 years of case law.

    This has downsides. But (see USA passim) also has upsides.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,379
    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man


    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    I want to go to this exhibition. Amazing to think 3 people narrowed 4 million photos to 500. Wonder how long it took them to do.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 35,379
    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man


    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    I want to go to this exhibition. Amazing to think 3 people narrowed 4 million photos to 500. Wonder how long it took them to do.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,281
    Jesus, what the hell has happened to England's fielding?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    isam said:

    18 boats carrying 1,194 illegal migrants crossed yesterday.

    That’s the highest daily figure this year.

    Where are all the women and children?


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1929131768008827188?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Over 1000 in a day is absolutely toxic for starmer. He has so clearly NOT “smashed the gangs”. And he cancelled the one idea anyone had for stopping them humanely, even if it was absurd and expensive and extreme - it might still have worked

    And, besides, what have Labour tried since? Offshore processing hubs - like Rwanda. Except unlike the Tories starmer couldn’t even get the agreement of the host country - in his case Albania, which humiliatingly turned him down live, on air

    Can Starmer’s and Labour’s polling go lower?

    Yes
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971

    Nigelb said:

    This a full scale decent into Orbanism.

    The White House this week convened nearly a dozen agencies to brainstorm additional punitive measures against Harvard, with forthcoming actions expected from State, Treasury, HHS and DOJ.
    https://x.com/SophiaCai99/status/1928501741479145786

    Blatantly illegal, of course, but the damage will be permanent.
    Every time the administration loses in court, they just plough on. While attacking the judiciary for doing their job.

    There's a rumour this all because Harvard rejected giving a place to Barron.
    That Trump is just a narcissist who enjoys arbitrary power, whereas the smarter guys around him are following a plan to destroy liberal democracy has pretty much the same effect in each case.

    The question is really whether or not this becomes sufficiently unpopular electorally before public opinion simply doesn't matter any more.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man


    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    I want to go to this exhibition. Amazing to think 3 people narrowed 4 million photos to 500. Wonder how long it took them to do.
    A long time. Apparently it nearly drove them mad

    What kept them sane was that their workspace was a little office in downtown Manhattan, above a strip club. The girls took pity on them and invited them down at night for free shows and spaghetti
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,720

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    A container full of drones carried on a truck without the knowledge of its driver can land numerous simultaneous hits on targets... anywhere in the world?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896
    MattW said:

    Stocky said:

    First? The curse of a new thread.

    On driverless cars, I'm recently back from Phoenix and I took six trips in Waymo taxis.

    What an awful future this presents: no human contact, no interaction with a local of the city you are visiting. Your cash is going to a large corporation rather than a little guy of that locality. And this is before considering what would happen in an accident. I guarantee that in an incident between a Waymo car and a driver the latter would be automatically assumed to be at fault - machines don't make mistakes, right? The corporation will become very skilled in avoiding any suggestion of liability and the small guy will have no chance against this.

    It is time to enshrine into law what Joe Public assumes is obviously already there, right?: a car must have a driver.

    After all, legally, a car has to be in good enough condition for the road. Add to the existing list of conditions that it must have a driver.

    It's ideal for citizens of nowhere !

    But your desire is basically where we are at present - a self-driving car must have a driver, and the driver is responsible. There's also a section in the Highway Code, which we all of course read every time it changes:
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-highway-code/introduction#self-driving-vehicles

    There was an act in 2018: The Automated and Electric Vehicles Act 2018.

    What we don't have yet, which works elsewhere in Europe, is presumed liability (as a rebutable presumption) in collisions being with the road user with the Duty of Care in the hierarchy of users. For totally driverless cars that would make the operator fit suitable cameras and safety systems, and preserve records. Corporates will fight something like that like terriers.

    I listened to an interesting vid about self-driving trucks in Texas, an its potential impact on drivers:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQrQrOPmszE
    There is a growing body of law about literally automated vehicles/systems in other environments.

    Driverless trains are not especially uncommon around the world.

    Robot assembly lines have killed and injured quite a few.

    Automated trucks are beginning to be used in some big industrial areas - such as open cast mines.

    All the *attempts* at driverless cars record huge amounts of data, already.

    Interestingly, very early on, Tesla sparked some interest from privacy groups - given the dislike of CCTV by such groups in the US, the idea of cars rolling around with 360 degree camera coverage. The assumption was that law enforcement would demand access to the data for pretty much any event. See the Amazon door bell ructions.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,416
    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    Rumours are that a whole load of drones took off from trucks parked near the bases. Strategic attacks by courier if you like.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896
    algarkirk said:

    Has anyone asked Reform what they will cut?

    Yes

    On Trevor Phillips this am

    Ending net zero

    Ending final salary schemes in public sector

    Ending the boats and asylum hotels

    Ending waste and bureaucracy in the public sector

    Sold! To that man in North Wales!

    It's all a bit "mom and apple pie". Tell the voters what they want to hear.

    Mainstream media are bigging up Reform at a remarkable rate.
    Reform are thinking the unthinkable. Questioning the unquestionable. No I’m not talking about migration. I’m talking about “Britain is broken”. And then talking about changing things.

    Problem is what they’re changing.

    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    “Ending final salary pensions”. Probably inevitable, though with the caveat that making people poorer doesn’t make people better off. Pension reform and welfare reform are crucial. But it can’t just be “cut” because cuts cost money

    “End the boats and asylum hotels”. Ok, there is genuine cost to save. But that isn’t where they want to stop, they want to end migration. Which has huge downside costs as migration fills holes that can’t just be filled with easy zero cost.

    “Ending waste and bureaucracy in the private sector”. Right ambition, wrong strategy. The waste is the structure. You can’t chop bits off the structure and save money because then what is left is even more inefficient. You need a new structure.

    So well done for actually starting the debate. Someone had to. But they don’t have any actual solutions. We can’t - as Starmer tried - just sneeringly say “it doesn’t add up” because neither does the status quo. Change is needed.
    Whereas I agree in principle, Reform probably need a landslide and then change the notion of Parliamentary Sovereignty to a parallel kingship as Trump is doing in America. If voters can't vote, or voters are restricted to vote Mugabe style, Reform might work.

    Getting rid of DOGE style irrelevance will not be electorally popular. When the GP surgery charges £200 per consultation, frequent flyer NHS uses will be outraged. They will be jumping in their cars and using the pay as you drive roads to get to an Amazon pillar box and send their letters of complaint to Nigel Farage at Mar a Lago.
    The U.K. already has the legal doctrine of the absolute power of Parliament.
    Indeed it does, and using it is slow and subject to considerable scrutiny. And everything you enact is (rightly) interpreted and constrained by the courts in the light of everything your predecessors in parliament have ever done, and 800 years of case law.

    This has downsides. But (see USA passim) also has upsides.
    The problem will come with primary legislation.

    “This act overrules all other proceeding legislation touching on this area…”

    I note the (sort of) reverse act of Attainder - Parliament declared the sub post master innocent. Which really defied the courts, if you think about it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    Rumours are that a whole load of drones took off from trucks parked near the bases. Strategic attacks by courier if you like.
    Amazing really
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    The Chinese might sell them some. They've reportedly provided laser anti-drone systems.

    But this is a major blow to Russia's war-making capability and prestige.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Yes, that’s often true

    (Tho I disagree on World Heritage Sites, they can disappoint but usually they are inscribed for a very good reason, and they are frequently stunning)

    It’s why I like taking assignments in apparently boring or remote places. So many times I have found something outstanding - but neglected

    A good example in the UK is where I was last week. Bamburgh Castle. How many Brits even know of its existence? Not many - I tested my theory last week on a couple of educated friends. Never heard of it

    But all of us that have been there know it is spectacular and unforgettable
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,598
    edited June 1
    Leon said:

    isam said:

    18 boats carrying 1,194 illegal migrants crossed yesterday.

    That’s the highest daily figure this year.

    Where are all the women and children?


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1929131768008827188?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Over 1000 in a day is absolutely toxic for starmer. He has so clearly NOT “smashed the gangs”. And he cancelled the one idea anyone had for stopping them humanely, even if it was absurd and expensive and extreme - it might still have worked

    And, besides, what have Labour tried since? Offshore processing hubs - like Rwanda. Except unlike the Tories starmer couldn’t even get the agreement of the host country - in his case Albania, which humiliatingly turned him down live, on air

    Can Starmer’s and Labour’s polling go lower?

    Yes
    Sky reporting the figures and showing video with the French Police standing on the beaches watching

    42% higher than last year
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    A container full of drones carried on a truck without the knowledge of its driver can land numerous simultaneous hits on targets... anywhere in the world?
    Yes, pretty much.

    Best not to piss off anyone willing and able to hit you back.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,554
    Also notable that non-voters are part of the Green surge.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,554

    Non voters are non voters because they don’t vote.

    But what if they do? They have done - twice. They turned out to win the Brexit vote. And they turned out to elect Boris Johnson. Providing that Farage gets them angry enough- and so far so good - I have little doubt they will vote.

    Nice icon.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Yes, that’s often true

    (Tho I disagree on World Heritage Sites, they can disappoint but usually they are inscribed for a very good reason, and they are frequently stunning)

    It’s why I like taking assignments in apparently boring or remote places. So many times I have found something outstanding - but neglected

    A good example in the UK is where I was last week. Bamburgh Castle. How many Brits even know of its existence? Not many - I tested my theory last week on a couple of educated friends. Never heard of it

    But all of us that have been there know it is spectacular and unforgettable
    Literally anyone who has watched the Last Kingdom so that’s millions
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,720
    lmao they hit Irkutsk
    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lqk6awem6k26

    That's closer to me than Ukraine
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,846
    Trump will no longer accept vetting of potential judges by the Federalist Society (itself very conservative).

    Too many of their nominees believe that he should follow the law, as opposed to believing that the law is whatever Trump wills it to be.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    The Chinese might sell them some. They've reportedly provided laser anti-drone systems.

    But this is a major blow to Russia's war-making capability and prestige.
    The Chinese have no heavy bombers in production. They have some incredibly ancient Tu-16, which would have very little value.

    On radar aircraft, they have a small number (8?) of something equivalent to an E-3. They won’t give those away.
  • novanova Posts: 834
    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    The Chinese might sell them some. They've reportedly provided laser anti-drone systems.

    But this is a major blow to Russia's war-making capability and prestige.
    The Chinese have no heavy bombers in production. They have some incredibly ancient Tu-16, which would have very little value.

    On radar aircraft, they have a small number (8?) of something equivalent to an E-3. They won’t give those away.
    Well, I'm glad of that.

    I simply assumed that, since the Chinese were making everything else in the world they'd be able to make those too.
  • SonofContrarianSonofContrarian Posts: 175
    Stocky said:

    MattW said:

    Has anyone asked Reform what they will cut?

    Yes

    On Trevor Phillips this am

    Ending net zero

    Ending final salary schemes in public sector

    Ending the boats and asylum hotels

    Ending waste and bureaucracy in the public sector

    TBH I think that is populist rhetoric, and Trumpish in that they are throwing arrows at the moon:

    1 - That's a bought and paid for reverse ferret. In their 2019 and 2021 manifestos they supported addressing Net Zero. Since then Reform has received several millions of £££ from fossil fuel supporters, and what happens? That should be a red flag for any potential supporters; Trump told his supporters what they wanted to hear, and has now started demolishing the rule of law and the US Constitution, whilst corruptly grifting multiple billions.

    2 - That will hit their target young voters. They can only end them for new joiners without a lot of negotiation, and in fact such schemes have already been heavily restricted. For example the Civil Service, NHS and Local Govt Pension Schemes are already based on Career Average Salary.

    They are already in control of some Local Authority Pension schemes; let's see what happens. To me that is a potential wedge between factions in the RefUK support base.

    3 - They can't do anything there that other parties are not already doing afaik.

    4 - There are already mulitple examples in County Councils where they made windy promises, and the expenditure that they promised to cut turns out not to exist. There are also some interesting reverse ferrets from both their Regional Mayors.

    At this point, imo RefUK are not a serious political party. We will see !
    When saying final salary schemes they mean all defined benefits schemes. This needs doing as a matter of urgency IMO but their promises are hollow because they could only do this, surely, for new joiners and money saved to the exchequer would take decades to be realised (which is a reason why it hasn't already been tackled). My opinion is that DB schemes should be scrapped for new joiners and everyone should have a higher income tax rate when aged over 65 (to capture those in receipt/ will be in receipt of high pension income).
    Ending Net Zero will be a bigger vote winner than most on here realise..🤨😏
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    The Chinese might sell them some. They've reportedly provided laser anti-drone systems.

    But this is a major blow to Russia's war-making capability and prestige.
    The Chinese have no heavy bombers in production. They have some incredibly ancient Tu-16, which would have very little value.

    On radar aircraft, they have a small number (8?) of something equivalent to an E-3. They won’t give those away.
    They have quite a lot of smaller ones, though.
    https://www.twz.com/chinas-massive-fleet-of-radar-planes-and-the-strategy-behind-it
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,613
    edited June 1
    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Nice example. Two more: Chichester has loads of stuff, but few make it to the Gabriel Loire stained glass in the otherwise uninteresting RC St Richard's church.

    Tourists in York miss the magical medieval stained glass in All Saints North Street, it's a few yards off the tourist trail, its the best and you have in close up all to yourself.
    I'll add two:

    One that is world class is St Giles, Cheadle, RC, which is a neo-Gothic work by Pugin - probably his finest of all. I'll make this my photo today - worth a click through.

    My other is the story of the renovation of the foundations of Winchester Cathedral by a diver called William Walker before WW1:

    William Walker was the most experienced diver of Siebe Gorman Ltd. Between 1906 and 1911, working in water up to a depth of six metres (20 feet), he shored up Winchester Cathedral, using more than 25,800 bags of concrete, 114,900 concrete blocks, and 900,000 bricks.

    There's now an incredibly atmospheric space in teh crypt with a Anthony Gormley scultpure there, with the space sometimes flooded.
    https://steverussellphotography.co.uk/winchester-cathedral-crypt/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971
    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    Every development of war-making technology is worrying for the future of the world. Name me one that wasn't?

    The best we can hope for is that the people who develop the best war-making technology are democratic and law-abiding. And so the converse is also true. If you're democratic and law-abiding you'd better make sure your war-making technology is better than that developed by dictatorships.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,843

    Stocky said:

    MattW said:

    Has anyone asked Reform what they will cut?

    Yes

    On Trevor Phillips this am

    Ending net zero

    Ending final salary schemes in public sector

    Ending the boats and asylum hotels

    Ending waste and bureaucracy in the public sector

    TBH I think that is populist rhetoric, and Trumpish in that they are throwing arrows at the moon:

    1 - That's a bought and paid for reverse ferret. In their 2019 and 2021 manifestos they supported addressing Net Zero. Since then Reform has received several millions of £££ from fossil fuel supporters, and what happens? That should be a red flag for any potential supporters; Trump told his supporters what they wanted to hear, and has now started demolishing the rule of law and the US Constitution, whilst corruptly grifting multiple billions.

    2 - That will hit their target young voters. They can only end them for new joiners without a lot of negotiation, and in fact such schemes have already been heavily restricted. For example the Civil Service, NHS and Local Govt Pension Schemes are already based on Career Average Salary.

    They are already in control of some Local Authority Pension schemes; let's see what happens. To me that is a potential wedge between factions in the RefUK support base.

    3 - They can't do anything there that other parties are not already doing afaik.

    4 - There are already mulitple examples in County Councils where they made windy promises, and the expenditure that they promised to cut turns out not to exist. There are also some interesting reverse ferrets from both their Regional Mayors.

    At this point, imo RefUK are not a serious political party. We will see !
    When saying final salary schemes they mean all defined benefits schemes. This needs doing as a matter of urgency IMO but their promises are hollow because they could only do this, surely, for new joiners and money saved to the exchequer would take decades to be realised (which is a reason why it hasn't already been tackled). My opinion is that DB schemes should be scrapped for new joiners and everyone should have a higher income tax rate when aged over 65 (to capture those in receipt/ will be in receipt of high pension income).
    Ending Net Zero will be a bigger vote winner than most on here realise..🤨😏
    But for who?

    We've already seen Reform Mayors push back on the party line, because they want the jobs and investment in their patches.

    And by 2028/9 a lot of the costs will be sunk- the turbines and panels will be in place, generating electricity at very low running costs. Is Nigel really going to propose ripping them all up?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Nice example. Two more: Chichester has loads of stuff, but few make it to the Gabriel Loire stained glass in the otherwise uninteresting RC St Richard's church.

    Tourists in York miss the magical medieval stained glass in All Saints North Street, it's a few yards off the tourist trail, its the best and you have in close up all to yourself.
    I'll add two:

    One that is world class is St Giles, Cheadle, RC, which is a neo-Gothic work by Pugin - probably his finest of all. I'll make this my photo today - worth a click through.

    My other is the story of the renovation of the foundations of Winchester Cathedral by a diver called William Walker before WW1:

    William Walker was the most experienced diver of Siebe Gorman Ltd. Between 1906 and 1911, working in water up to a depth of six metres (20 feet), he shored up Winchester Cathedral, using more than 25,800 bags of concrete, 114,900 concrete blocks, and 900,000 bricks.

    There's now an incredibly atmospheric space in teh crypt with a Anthony Gormley scultpure there, with the space sometimes flooded.
    https://steverussellphotography.co.uk/winchester-cathedral-crypt/
    It’s quite hard to argue that Winchester Cathedral is “neglected and overlooked”

    It’s world famous. And for good reason - the grave of Jane Austen, the amazing nave, the ossuary chests of the Anglo-Danish kings - inc Cnut!

    I think the pb travel brains trust can come up with better “hidden gems” than that
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    Nigelb said:

    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
    And again it proves the futility of developing weapons “crewed” by men - eg fighter jets, tanks, anything. Why the F are we spending billions - AIUI - on a new Euro fighter?

    The future is autonomous weapons, drones, robots
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896
    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    The Chinese might sell them some. They've reportedly provided laser anti-drone systems.

    But this is a major blow to Russia's war-making capability and prestige.
    The Chinese have no heavy bombers in production. They have some incredibly ancient Tu-16, which would have very little value.

    On radar aircraft, they have a small number (8?) of something equivalent to an E-3. They won’t give those away.
    They have quite a lot of smaller ones, though.
    https://www.twz.com/chinas-massive-fleet-of-radar-planes-and-the-strategy-behind-it
    On that scale, there are tons in Russia, as well.

    The multi hundred mile range, all seeing Sky God, is a different kettle of fish.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,416

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    Rumours are that a whole load of drones took off from trucks parked near the bases. Strategic attacks by courier if you like.
    Amazing really
    It does appear to be real there's a video of truck with what looks like two TEU containers. It's parked and drones are taking off from it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Nice example. Two more: Chichester has loads of stuff, but few make it to the Gabriel Loire stained glass in the otherwise uninteresting RC St Richard's church.

    Tourists in York miss the magical medieval stained glass in All Saints North Street, it's a few yards off the tourist trail, its the best and you have in close up all to yourself.
    I'll add two:

    One that is world class is St Giles, Cheadle, RC, which is a neo-Gothic work by Pugin - probably his finest of all. I'll make this my photo today - worth a click through.

    My other is the story of the renovation of the foundations of Winchester Cathedral by a diver called William Walker before WW1:

    William Walker was the most experienced diver of Siebe Gorman Ltd. Between 1906 and 1911, working in water up to a depth of six metres (20 feet), he shored up Winchester Cathedral, using more than 25,800 bags of concrete, 114,900 concrete blocks, and 900,000 bricks.

    There's now an incredibly atmospheric space in teh crypt with a Anthony Gormley scultpure there, with the space sometimes flooded.
    https://steverussellphotography.co.uk/winchester-cathedral-crypt/
    It’s quite hard to argue that Winchester Cathedral is “neglected and overlooked”

    It’s world famous. And for good reason - the grave of Jane Austen, the amazing nave, the ossuary chests of the Anglo-Danish kings - inc Cnut!

    I think the pb travel brains trust can come up with better “hidden gems” than that
    This cathedral?


  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,549


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    edited June 1
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
    And again it proves the futility of developing weapons “crewed” by men - eg fighter jets, tanks, anything. Why the F are we spending billions - AIUI - on a new Euro fighter?

    The future is autonomous weapons, drones, robots
    Ukraine - who are fighting the current West and know what they need - are still developing a crewed airforce and asking for modern aircraft to do so with.

    I don't think it's a case of new capabilities making old ones redundant. We need both.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    Talking of hidden gems I am now drinking excellent local Moselle white wine, on a sunny terrace overlooking the river Our, which flows through the lovely and tiny medieval city of Vianden, which is surmounted by - yes - a quite magnificent castle

    Luxembourgers have definitely heard of it, they are all here having good quiche Lorraine

    But it’s entirely new to me

    https://www.visitluxembourg.com/place/vianden
  • glwglw Posts: 10,416
    Putin is going to got absolutely nuts. This appears to be easily the biggest and most successful attack by Ukraine to date.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,613
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Nice example. Two more: Chichester has loads of stuff, but few make it to the Gabriel Loire stained glass in the otherwise uninteresting RC St Richard's church.

    Tourists in York miss the magical medieval stained glass in All Saints North Street, it's a few yards off the tourist trail, its the best and you have in close up all to yourself.
    I'll add two:

    One that is world class is St Giles, Cheadle, RC, which is a neo-Gothic work by Pugin - probably his finest of all. I'll make this my photo today - worth a click through.

    My other is the story of the renovation of the foundations of Winchester Cathedral by a diver called William Walker before WW1:

    William Walker was the most experienced diver of Siebe Gorman Ltd. Between 1906 and 1911, working in water up to a depth of six metres (20 feet), he shored up Winchester Cathedral, using more than 25,800 bags of concrete, 114,900 concrete blocks, and 900,000 bricks.

    There's now an incredibly atmospheric space in teh crypt with a Anthony Gormley scultpure there, with the space sometimes flooded.
    https://steverussellphotography.co.uk/winchester-cathedral-crypt/
    It’s quite hard to argue that Winchester Cathedral is “neglected and overlooked”

    It’s world famous. And for good reason - the grave of Jane Austen, the amazing nave, the ossuary chests of the Anglo-Danish kings - inc Cnut!

    I think the pb travel brains trust can come up with better “hidden gems” than that
    I think William Walker is a little overlooked :smile: .
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    edited June 1

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
    And again it proves the futility of developing weapons “crewed” by men - eg fighter jets, tanks, anything. Why the F are we spending billions - AIUI - on a new Euro fighter?

    The future is autonomous weapons, drones, robots
    Ukraine - who are fighting the current West and know what they need - are still developing a crewed airforce and asking for modern aircraft to do so with.

    I don't think it's a case of new capabilities making old ones redundant. We need both.
    I disagree

    How much does it cost to find and train a good fighter pilot? What is the value of a human life over a robot pilot which will - soon - not only fly the plane vastly better but cost a few hundred bucks? And be able to do maneuvers and speeds and altitudes far beyond human endurance?

    The tech is not quite ready yet but it’s clearly coming very soon
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
    And again it proves the futility of developing weapons “crewed” by men - eg fighter jets, tanks, anything. Why the F are we spending billions - AIUI - on a new Euro fighter?

    The future is autonomous weapons, drones, robots
    Ukraine - who are fighting the current West and know what they need - are still developing a crewed airforce and asking for modern aircraft to do so with.

    I don't think it's a case of new capabilities making old ones redundant. We need both.
    Both the US and China are spending many billions in doing the same.
    This might be the last new generation of manned fighters, but they're still needed.
    And the tech in them will be largely applicable to future high end unmanned versions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255
    glw said:

    Putin is going to got absolutely nuts. This appears to be easily the biggest and most successful attack by Ukraine to date.

    Maybe a ceasefire will seem like a better idea to him now. Peace negotiations in Istanbul tomorrow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896
    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    Building a first stage for your drones is an obvious starting point.

    I’ve been suggesting, for a while, that some of the attacks, such as in Moscow, could have been delayed action drones. Setup on a rooftop, on a timer.

    Using a vehicle for that seems obvious as well. Not hard to organise a roof that opens.

    An ISO shipping container that is a VLS silo for drones wouldn’t be terribly hard - or unimaginable.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,001
    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,794
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
    And again it proves the futility of developing weapons “crewed” by men - eg fighter jets, tanks, anything. Why the F are we spending billions - AIUI - on a new Euro fighter?

    The future is autonomous weapons, drones, robots
    Ukraine - who are fighting the current West and know what they need - are still developing a crewed airforce and asking for modern aircraft to do so with.

    I don't think it's a case of new capabilities making old ones redundant. We need both.
    Both the US and China are spending many billions in doing the same.
    This might be the last new generation of manned fighters, but they're still needed.
    And the tech in them will be largely applicable to future high end unmanned versions.
    And the IDF seems to be very keen on still having manned aircraft and drones to pursue their ‘targeted’ strikes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    nova said:

    Nigelb said:

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    This is supposed to have taken place 5500km from Ukraine.

    Now that would be a truly special military operation, if correct.
    And away from the context of the Ukraine war, a rather worrying development for the future of the world.
    That's been clear for quite a while, since this conflict started.
    All of our previous security calculations are no longer in the least reliable.
    And again it proves the futility of developing weapons “crewed” by men - eg fighter jets, tanks, anything. Why the F are we spending billions - AIUI - on a new Euro fighter?

    The future is autonomous weapons, drones, robots
    Ukraine - who are fighting the current West and know what they need - are still developing a crewed airforce and asking for modern aircraft to do so with.

    I don't think it's a case of new capabilities making old ones redundant. We need both.
    I disagree

    How much does it cost to find and train a good fighter pilot? What is the value of a human life over a robot pilot which will - soon - not only fly the plane vastly better but cost a few hundred bucks? And be able to do maneuvers and speeds and altitudes far beyond human endurance?

    The tech is not quite ready yet but it’s clearly coming very soon
    An aircraft that can *match* the capabilities of a human pilot requires large engines, and advanced airframe and design. By the time you add weapons, it’s far from cheap.

    UCLASS, for example.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,703
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Starting to look like a major Ukrainian offensive. Now explosions have been reported in Severomorsk, where the Russian Northern Fleet, including subs with nukes, is based.

    #explodey
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,613
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Nice example. Two more: Chichester has loads of stuff, but few make it to the Gabriel Loire stained glass in the otherwise uninteresting RC St Richard's church.

    Tourists in York miss the magical medieval stained glass in All Saints North Street, it's a few yards off the tourist trail, its the best and you have in close up all to yourself.
    I'll add two:

    One that is world class is St Giles, Cheadle, RC, which is a neo-Gothic work by Pugin - probably his finest of all. I'll make this my photo today - worth a click through.

    My other is the story of the renovation of the foundations of Winchester Cathedral by a diver called William Walker before WW1:

    William Walker was the most experienced diver of Siebe Gorman Ltd. Between 1906 and 1911, working in water up to a depth of six metres (20 feet), he shored up Winchester Cathedral, using more than 25,800 bags of concrete, 114,900 concrete blocks, and 900,000 bricks.

    There's now an incredibly atmospheric space in teh crypt with a Anthony Gormley scultpure there, with the space sometimes flooded.
    https://steverussellphotography.co.uk/winchester-cathedral-crypt/
    It’s quite hard to argue that Winchester Cathedral is “neglected and overlooked”

    It’s world famous. And for good reason - the grave of Jane Austen, the amazing nave, the ossuary chests of the Anglo-Danish kings - inc Cnut!

    I think the pb travel brains trust can come up with better “hidden gems” than that
    I think William Walker is a little overlooked :smile: .
    For me it's often in then detail. My other favourite feature there is the set of modern (1992) icons in the Retro-Choir.
    https://www.bai.org.uk/winchester-icons/

    (If anyone knows one, I've been looking for an icon painter myself for a commission to give to a friend, but have not found one yet.)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 14,554
    .


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Aren’t all targets arbitrary?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,896

    .


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Aren’t all targets arbitrary?
    The targets that Ukraine are going for seem far from arbitrary.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,233
    edited June 1
    What an absolute twat Bukayo Saka is.

    Here's worse than Megan Thee Stallion.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    Putin’s response will be interesting/worrying
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,233
    edited June 1

    Putin’s response will be interesting/worrying

    I predict a lot senior Russian military/intelligence officers will be falling out of windows in the next few days.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    Looks like Ukraine is wiping out a hefty chunk of Russia’s strategic war machine - subs to bombers - in one day

    Reminds me of Israel’s pager attack
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,255

    Putin’s response will be interesting/worrying

    Trump's response is one to watch.

    Is he impressed by what is an expression of strength from Ukraine, or is he annoyed because his buddy Putin is attacked?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,281
    Sean_F said:

    Trump will no longer accept vetting of potential judges by the Federalist Society (itself very conservative).

    Too many of their nominees believe that he should follow the law, as opposed to believing that the law is whatever Trump wills it to be.

    Time for them to rename themselves the Face Eating Leopards Society then.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,846
    Chris said:

    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.

    The recent local elections give some worked examples. At 25%, Reform’s seat count matches its vote share, at 33% they clean up.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,347


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Well we're generating 71% of our power from wind and solar as I type this. Farridge thinks we can save £40bh from scrapping Net Zero. Said Net Zero is what has installed wind and solar to generate all this clan energy.

    So what - specifically - are they planning to scrap to save the dosh?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,482
    If Ukraine ultimately survives this war you have to expect that Zelensky’s domestic legacy will be like that of Churchill. It’s really amazing what they have done against the might of Russia
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,233
    Chris said:

    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.

    Nobody's become rich betting against Sir John Curtice (pbuh).
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,322
    FPT: Some thoughts on recruitment for the services: Some months ago, Megan McArdle mentioned a study that found black American men who served had higher incomes for the next 20 years. (It's not an easy thing to study, but she's pretty sharp, so I am inclined to believe her.)

    Foreigners can earn citizenship by serving in the US armed forces.

    Rural areas provide a disproportionate share of recruits for the US.

    In particular, Native Americans are especially likely to join up, more than any other group, according to commercials I've seen.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,001
    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.

    The recent local elections give some worked examples. At 25%, Reform’s seat count matches its vote share, at 33% they clean up.
    But the sense in which Reform "cleaned up" was that Reform and the Lib Dems gained from the Tories and Labour in such a way as to leave the Con+Reform and Lab+LD+Green totals almost exactly unchanged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971
    edited June 1


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Well we're generating 71% of our power from wind and solar as I type this. Farridge thinks we can save £40bh from scrapping Net Zero. Said Net Zero is what has installed wind and solar to generate all this clan energy.

    So what - specifically - are they planning to scrap to save the dosh?
    Carbon capture would account for a bit of it.

    But the big stuff like grid investment will save money over time, as you suggest.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,001

    Chris said:

    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.

    Nobody's become rich betting against Sir John Curtice (pbuh).
    But does your political analysis really not go any further than "in Curtice I trust"?

    Do you really not have any thoughts of your own?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,990


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Well we're generating 71% of our power from wind and solar as I type this. Farridge thinks we can save £40bh from scrapping Net Zero. Said Net Zero is what has installed wind and solar to generate all this clan energy.

    So what - specifically - are they planning to scrap to save the dosh?
    They could save £50 billion by not implementing CCS.

    Actually, too late to save the first £15 billion as contracts have been signed already.

    Please note that I am merely highlighting this, not advocating it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,846

    FPT: Some thoughts on recruitment for the services: Some months ago, Megan McArdle mentioned a study that found black American men who served had higher incomes for the next 20 years. (It's not an easy thing to study, but she's pretty sharp, so I am inclined to believe her.)

    Foreigners can earn citizenship by serving in the US armed forces.

    Rural areas provide a disproportionate share of recruits for the US.

    In particular, Native Americans are especially likely to join up, more than any other group, according to commercials I've seen.

    The US armed forces have long been a good career option for ethnic minorities.

    Trump, naturally, sees them as “suckers and losers.”
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,347
    Nigelb said:


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Well we're generating 71% of our power from wind and solar as I type this. Farridge thinks we can save £40bh from scrapping Net Zero. Said Net Zero is what has installed wind and solar to generate all this clan energy.

    So what - specifically - are they planning to scrap to save the dosh?
    Carbon capture would account for a bit of it.

    But the big stuff like grid investment will save money over time, as you suggest.
    If we don't invest in the grid because we're scrapping Net Zero then we're unable to transmit the power we're generating. Which means we need to generate more power elsewhere. Which means spending £lots recommissioning and adding capacity to the old gas and biomass power stations which all burn imported stuff.

    Saving? What saving?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971
    Goes for critical infrastructure, too.

    I really hope the USAF is taking notes.
    Because continuing to lack robust anti-drone *passive* defenses (nets, shelters, etc.) over OUR strategic aircraft (bomber fleet, AWACS, etc.) would—at this point—constitute near-criminal negligence.

    https://x.com/tshugart3/status/1929146676968559037

    Note that the world's biggest drone and drone components manufacturer, by a long, long way, is not on our side.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,245
    Afternoon pb. Unexpectedly, I am Croatia: at Skiathos Airport, where the runway is short, the pilot deemed it too risky to take on more than the bare minimum of fuel lest we hurtle off the north end straight into the sea - so we are pausing briefly in Dubrovnik to refuel. Amazing city, and had I not been here seven weeks ago I would be finding this extremely exciting.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,971

    Nigelb said:


    “Ending net zero”. And replacing it with? If we want to revert to burning gas (and coal?) we’ll need to invest heavily in both generating capacity and expensive imported fuel. So a big cost offset against the alleged saving.

    Ending net zero means replacing having an arbitrary target with not having an arbitrary target. It doesn’t mean forcing everyone to heat their homes with coal.
    Well we're generating 71% of our power from wind and solar as I type this. Farridge thinks we can save £40bh from scrapping Net Zero. Said Net Zero is what has installed wind and solar to generate all this clan energy.

    So what - specifically - are they planning to scrap to save the dosh?
    Carbon capture would account for a bit of it.

    But the big stuff like grid investment will save money over time, as you suggest.
    If we don't invest in the grid because we're scrapping Net Zero then we're unable to transmit the power we're generating. Which means we need to generate more power elsewhere. Which means spending £lots recommissioning and adding capacity to the old gas and biomass power stations which all burn imported stuff.

    Saving? What saving?
    Well, yes.
    Reform type schtick ignore the fact that large parts of the UK's electrical infrastructure will require lots of money spent on them, irrespective of climate change. A point I've been making for a couple of decades.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 61,518
    Cookie said:

    Afternoon pb. Unexpectedly, I am Croatia: at Skiathos Airport, where the runway is short, the pilot deemed it too risky to take on more than the bare minimum of fuel lest we hurtle off the north end straight into the sea - so we are pausing briefly in Dubrovnik to refuel. Amazing city, and had I not been here seven weeks ago I would be finding this extremely exciting.

    I’m on “Luxembourg’s only ski lift” ascending over the River Our. The sunshine is glorious and the views are magnificent

    Which idiot was telling me Luxembourg was likely to be dull and ugly?

    Ok it was me. Am idiot
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,245
    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.

    The recent local elections give some worked examples. At 25%, Reform’s seat count matches its vote share, at 33% they clean up.
    See also: the SNP's success in Westminster elections based on similar vote shares.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,703
    @noelreports.com‬

    Ukraine’s Security Service reportedly spent over 18 months preparing Operation “Pavutýna” ("Spiderweb"), which targeted 41 Russian strategic aircraft today.

    According to Ihor Lachenkov referring to sources within the SBU, FPV drones were first smuggled into Russia, followed by mobile wooden cabins.

    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lqkcgre4kc2l
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,245
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, I have just been to the greatest photography exhibition of my entire life

    It’s a permanent collection called “Family of Man” housed in a 12th century chateau in the little Luxembourg village of Clervaux - rebuilt after the horrors of the battle of the bulge

    It was collected by a Luxembourg dude - Edward Steichen - when he was director of photography at MOMA in the 1950s-60s. Then the whole thing was gifted to Clervaux

    To make it Steichner asked all the world’s best photographers and agencies to send some of their best work. He received 4 million photos. Then he and two assistants narrowed it down to 100,000. Then 10,000. Then 1,000. Then 500

    The 500 are what you see in the chateau. The collection is UNESCO listed. It is absolutely magnificent - moving, profound, shocking, savage, sublime

    Who knew? Who bloody knew? A little town in Luxembourg. Well I never

    https://www.visit-clervaux.lu/en/art/the-family-of-man

    https://aestheticsofphotography.com/the-family-of-man/

    It's great that you found it, but I'd push back slightly - it's EXACTLY where I'd expect to find something exceptional like that, in an out of the way niche corner of a relatively wealthy, stable society.

    That's why I travel when and where I do; it's not about how many countries I've been to, or putting notches on the walking stick.

    It's about the small, hidden things, and some of them turn out to be of "international" stature. I don't put much more weight on a World Heritage Site, than in something smaller.

    That's what I enjoyed about London when I lived there for a few years - the stuff is everywhere, but it's also everywhere outside London. Who would think that a tiny church in Kent would have a full set of stained glass by Chagall (Tudeley), but it's there.
    Yes, that’s often true

    (Tho I disagree on World Heritage Sites, they can disappoint but usually they are inscribed for a very good reason, and they are frequently stunning)

    It’s why I like taking assignments in apparently boring or remote places. So many times I have found something outstanding - but neglected

    A good example in the UK is where I was last week. Bamburgh Castle. How many Brits even know of its existence? Not many - I tested my theory last week on a couple of educated friends. Never heard of it

    But all of us that have been there know it is spectacular and unforgettable
    But you live in London. Many people down there are pretty hazy about anything above 52 degrees north.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,846
    Scott_xP said:

    @noelreports.com‬

    Ukraine’s Security Service reportedly spent over 18 months preparing Operation “Pavutýna” ("Spiderweb"), which targeted 41 Russian strategic aircraft today.

    According to Ihor Lachenkov referring to sources within the SBU, FPV drones were first smuggled into Russia, followed by mobile wooden cabins.

    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lqkcgre4kc2l

    It’s like something in a far-fetched novel, but truth can be stranger than fiction.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,179

    https://kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/

    "SBU drones are practicing on aircraft that bomb Ukrainian cities every night. Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3."

    Russia has no ability to build more of A50 (AWACS plane), Tu-95 or Tu22M (heavy bombers).

    They have no replacement heavy bombers in production, at all. And no replacement radar warning aircraft being built.
    Brilliant Ukraine operation using covered trucks to transport drones well into Russia, including Siberia, and then release them from the trucks.
    https://x.com/iaponomarenko/status/1929157735070720095?s=48
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,794
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Chris said:

    I listened to a YouTube video in which John Curtice said that Reform's polling at 30-31%, combined with their evenly distributed support, would mean "certainly they would be easily the biggest party" [in Parliament] and perhaps they would have a majority.

    This makes absolutely no sense to me. If Reform's support were absolutely evenly distributed at 30-31% in every constituency, given a four-party contest, a Reform victory would require - essentially - all four parties to be roughly in the 20-31% range. Historically, that kind of result has been pretty rare in UK elections.

    And that is even without considering the scope for tactical voting. I am still convinced there would be an unprecedented level of tactical voting against Reform - even by some Conservatives, given the polling data posted here recently. I didn't hear any mention of tactical voting in the video. But perhaps I missed it.

    I'm afraid Curtice is projecting historical behaviour not only incorrectly in its own terms, but well beyond its applicability in unusual circumstances.

    The recent local elections give some worked examples. At 25%, Reform’s seat count matches its vote share, at 33% they clean up.
    See also: the SNP's success in Westminster elections based on similar vote shares.
    Up to a point. In the 2024 ge the SNP got humped on 30% while Lab cleaned up on 35%.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,703
    @yarotrof

    Stunning Ukrainian attack on Russian long-range bomber bases in Siberia and the Far North using drones launched from parked trucks. Many irreplaceable strategic bombers burning. Will be in history books.

    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1929151090697683129
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