Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Morning all, what's Jenners up to today? Last seen rounding the East Goodwin Lightship in a canoe asking refugees if they have knives and livestreaming about that complete fucking prick who Minister of State for Immigration during the Boriswave.
I am visiting London by train today and I am worried I might run into Jenrick at St Pancras and he'll ask to see my ticket.
He's only 5' 5" according to the internet.
That's really short for a man. It's barely an inch higher than my wife.
Regardless of how good he is, will the British electorate vote for a short man as PM?
Jenners doesn't have the wireframe physique and cervine eyes that made Sunak so eminently bullyable.
You are right though. It's not going to be a good look when he's stood next to Our Ange in the 2029 GE leadership debates and it looks like she could suplex him with ease.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Given that their seems to be no shortage of TFL officers, I think offering a pay enhancement to train in enforcement, and possibly give them the power to issue on-the-spot fines or other disincentives, would be a step. What is the point of all these ones who can't do anything, and who the fare dodgers know can't do anything?
Or outsource it to Capita or Mitie or G4S or whoever, and put the staff on a productivity bonus. OK, I know it looks a bit like tax farming, but desperate times cal for desperate measures....
Sir Keir has clearly played a blinder with his Reform speech yesterday. Its immediate political significance may be negligible, but this feels like the moment when we start regarding Nigel not as a mere celebrity commentator but as our potential leader. That's salutary to everyone including Nigel. He should learn from this and grow.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
This may explain why the Luftwaffe never bombed Canvey.
Another theory is they thought it had already been done.
When they bombed Ardrossan they caused £20 million of improvements.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
Then the fines are at least 20 times too low.
See fines on public transport in Singapore.....$500, $1000, $2000, these are real fines you can get for doing things like drinking water, carrying smelly fruit, bringing batteries over a certain size.....
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
Doing too much, more like doing things in a highly inefficient manner.
I see Farage wants tougher abortion laws. Does he have his own ideas, or does he just do whatever the US Right says now?
This is the big worry with Farage. Becoming purely an appendage of a Trumpian U.S.,with all that might bring along with it for democracy and the rule of law
Surely this is the ticking time bomb?
Hmmmm
Saville was not a political figure open about his views, though.
Yes he was, he campaigned for the Liberal Party.
Not that I care, because we have enough examples of our own more obvious dirty linen on that front (as does everyone sadly), but that is news to me and I have been around the party for 50+ years. Can you provide a link/reference?
Well I should have done a google search first, shouldn't I? I always thought he was a Tory supporter (again not that it matters).
Savile was a Liberal supporter in the 1970s and made a broadcast with Thorpe, then a Thatcher and Tory supporter in the 1980s, then got closer to Blair and New Labour in the 2000s. He basically sucked up to those with power https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1RN0BQsBsE
Yes, I doubt Jimmy Savile had a coherent political position derived from his fundamental principles and world view.
And that's about the best we can say of him.
When did Jeremy Thorpe have power?
Jeremy had 'power' in the same way that Farage does now; an attractive figure for BBC shows, with a good turn of phrase. There was also a suspicion (fear?) among movers and shakers that he could actually win power. In practice the Liberal vote was just shy of 20%, with Labour and Conservative both just below 40%.
I see Farage wants tougher abortion laws. Does he have his own ideas, or does he just do whatever the US Right says now?
This is the big worry with Farage. Becoming purely an appendage of a Trumpian U.S.,with all that might bring along with it for democracy and the rule of law
Surely this is the ticking time bomb?
Hmmmm
Saville was not a political figure open about his views, though.
Yes he was, he campaigned for the Liberal Party.
Not that I care, because we have enough examples of our own more obvious dirty linen on that front (as does everyone sadly), but that is news to me and I have been around the party for 50+ years. Can you provide a link/reference?
Well I should have done a google search first, shouldn't I? I always thought he was a Tory supporter (again not that it matters).
Savile was a Liberal supporter in the 1970s and made a broadcast with Thorpe, then a Thatcher and Tory supporter in the 1980s, then got closer to Blair and New Labour in the 2000s. He basically sucked up to those with power https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1RN0BQsBsE
Yes, I doubt Jimmy Savile had a coherent political position derived from his fundamental principles and world view.
And that's about the best we can say of him.
I think we can safely assume Savile would now be a big Reform supporter though if he was still around and had not yet been exposed
For sure. He'd probably be doing marathons in a "Britain needs Reform" tee shirt to raise funds. People should bear this in mind before voting for them.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
Doing too much, more like doing things in a highly inefficient manner.
Yeah, by targeting a few small-timers with loads of staff on the gates instead of hiring 10 skilled investigators to go after the minted office workers.
If you want TfL to go after the former, you have to accept it's going to be a net financial loss.
I don’t know if it will make a difference politically but surely it was incredibly silly for Farage to praise Truss’s Budget so clearly.
Farage has 3+ years to do the following: stop identifying with people who are bad for reputations (eg Trump); stop identifying with spending hundreds of billions you haven't got; start identifying with the 95% of voters who are welfare state social democrats, fond of free stuff who want it run better; abandon Singapore on Humber and low tax; identify a group of people who could be a front bench that wouldn't make everyone laugh at them. Then produce a manifesto - it will be the most studied ever - that can get past the OBR, IFS, the markets and the media.
If he can win a majority it can only be from the position comprehensible to Clacton: high spending social democracy with less wokery and secure borders, sound on defence.
Personally I think the last few weeks show that this is his intention.
Is this a pitch for the leadership? Whatever the pros and cons of the TFL stunt one can't deny it is effective.
Kemi needs to step aside now. Jenrick has captured the public imagination like no politician has since Blair and 'tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'. If the Tories play this right, a massive landslide and years of good will await Jenrick as they awaited Blair all those years ago.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Mersea
Dixe Wills’ “Tiny Islands” is worth a read, and so is his “Tiny Stations”. I wonder if he’s ever met our Sunil?
I see Farage wants tougher abortion laws. Does he have his own ideas, or does he just do whatever the US Right says now?
This is the big worry with Farage. Becoming purely an appendage of a Trumpian U.S.,with all that might bring along with it for democracy and the rule of law
Surely this is the ticking time bomb?
Hmmmm
Saville was not a political figure open about his views, though.
Yes he was, he campaigned for the Liberal Party.
Not that I care, because we have enough examples of our own more obvious dirty linen on that front (as does everyone sadly), but that is news to me and I have been around the party for 50+ years. Can you provide a link/reference?
Well I should have done a google search first, shouldn't I? I always thought he was a Tory supporter (again not that it matters).
Savile was a Liberal supporter in the 1970s and made a broadcast with Thorpe, then a Thatcher and Tory supporter in the 1980s, then got closer to Blair and New Labour in the 2000s. He basically sucked up to those with power https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1RN0BQsBsE
Yes, I doubt Jimmy Savile had a coherent political position derived from his fundamental principles and world view.
And that's about the best we can say of him.
When did Jeremy Thorpe have power?
He had his moments. Certainly he wielded influence. We saw that during the trial.
In reality I don't think they'd win a majority with 31%. Their vote would be too heavily concentrated in their best areas.
The Calculators are way too wedded to UNS and the heavily tactical 2024 results to accurately reflect an earthquake like the current suggested political landscape. Besides RoboJenrick surely makes it Con 28(+12) next week!
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
My mother in law was a resident of Hayling Island until she died a couple of years ago. If I had a pound for every time I was asked asked by people when I have said where I was going/had been "Is Hayling Island an island?" would have paid for the funeral.
Sir Keir has clearly played a blinder with his Reform speech yesterday. Its immediate political significance may be negligible, but this feels like the moment when we start regarding Nigel not as a mere celebrity commentator but as our potential leader. That's salutary to everyone including Nigel. He should learn from this and grow.
He needs to develop a platform for government that is coherent, popular and affordable. Nothing less will do.
I don’t know if it will make a difference politically but surely it was incredibly silly for Farage to praise Truss’s Budget so clearly.
Farage has 3+ years to do the following: stop identifying with people who are bad for reputations (eg Trump); stop identifying with spending hundreds of billions you haven't got; start identifying with the 95% of voters who are welfare state social democrats, fond of free stuff who want it run better; abandon Singapore on Humber and low tax; identify a group of people who could be a front bench that wouldn't make everyone laugh at them. Then produce a manifesto - it will be the most studied ever - that can get past the OBR, IFS, the markets and the media.
If he can win a majority it can only be from the position comprehensible to Clacton: high spending social democracy with less wokery and secure borders, sound on defence.
Personally I think the last few weeks show that this is his intention.
It depends on whether he genuinely wants to be PM or is happy remaining as a spanner in the works.
I don’t know if it will make a difference politically but surely it was incredibly silly for Farage to praise Truss’s Budget so clearly.
Farage has 3+ years to do the following: stop identifying with people who are bad for reputations (eg Trump); stop identifying with spending hundreds of billions you haven't got; start identifying with the 95% of voters who are welfare state social democrats, fond of free stuff who want it run better; abandon Singapore on Humber and low tax; identify a group of people who could be a front bench that wouldn't make everyone laugh at them. Then produce a manifesto - it will be the most studied ever - that can get past the OBR, IFS, the markets and the media.
If he can win a majority it can only be from the position comprehensible to Clacton: high spending social democracy with less wokery and secure borders, sound on defence.
Personally I think the last few weeks show that this is his intention.
I think he’s making the right moves in that direction but it would surely require junking a lot of the Reform programme from 2024.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Lindisfarne. Sometimes an island, sometimes not depending on tides. Piel Island. Walney.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Lindisfarne. Sometimes an island, sometimes not depending on tides. Piel Island. Walney.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Mersea
Foulness
ITV had a compelling true-crime doc on the Mersea fentanyl murders the other week
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Lindisfarne. Sometimes an island, sometimes not depending on tides. Piel Island. Walney.
Farage going for crypto is interesting. What is the angle here?
Launching his own meme coin to make bank?
More seriously he is copying Trump cosying up to crypto-bros. They a) have money* and b) skew young often with quite a lot of reach online as lots of young people see the only way they will afford a house etc is to gamble on crypto.
It seems the Lib Dems have reached somewhat of a ceiling in vote share. Enough to retain or even mildly add to seat tally if it continues into 2029 but nowhere near breakthrough level.
The question is where to go from here. [I have taken my prophylactics and vaccines against “opportunistic NIMBY twats”, “Post Office”, “Coalition tuition fees” and “stupid stunts”) so should have reasonable immunity to the replies.]
We’ve conquered the Gail’s belt and look to be consolidating it (see Lewis overnight) but somehow the party needs to breakthrough in a new region or demographic to make further progress. None are easy.
- Urban Labour strongholds: fertile ground in the Blair years, but long gone. The Greens and independents seem better placed. This is the biggest contrast with Macron who has a stranglehold on wealthy inner Ile de France. - Tory shires: these will turn increasingly Reform, so with a split right wing vote I think there is scope. See North Shropshire for how it’s done. - M1 and M6 corridor: this is a Lib Dem wasteland and traditionally Con-Lab marginal territory. Hard to break into - Liberal / urban bits of the Reformy red wall: yes, I think there is scope here as the Labour vote declines, building on some encouraging council results - Wales seems irretrievably lost - Scotland is hard yards but some prospect of replacing Tories as the unionist party in more shiry spots?
I think if I were strategising for the party I’d go for a 2-prong approach:
1. parts of former Tory strongholds where they’re collapsing to Reform, and where LDs can come through the middle, by-election style 2. Liberal islands in the new Reform heartlands: the Austin Texases
I don’t know if it will make a difference politically but surely it was incredibly silly for Farage to praise Truss’s Budget so clearly.
Farage has 3+ years to do the following: stop identifying with people who are bad for reputations (eg Trump); stop identifying with spending hundreds of billions you haven't got; start identifying with the 95% of voters who are welfare state social democrats, fond of free stuff who want it run better; abandon Singapore on Humber and low tax; identify a group of people who could be a front bench that wouldn't make everyone laugh at them. Then produce a manifesto - it will be the most studied ever - that can get past the OBR, IFS, the markets and the media.
If he can win a majority it can only be from the position comprehensible to Clacton: high spending social democracy with less wokery and secure borders, sound on defence.
Personally I think the last few weeks show that this is his intention.
It depends on whether he genuinely wants to be PM or is happy remaining as a spanner in the works.
Does Farage want to be wedded to UK politics for the next 9 years until the end of a term as PM?........... Odds of a flounce must be considered
Incidentally, does anyone else find there was a certain irony in Jenrick confronting fare dodgers while he himself had not paid the necessary fee to carry out filming?
Does he not realise there might just be a tiny issue there?
Jenrick is a two tier tory like Johnson / Truss etc. Thinks the rules only applies to the little people.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
I think it would be a rather small SS; in 1938 the population was only 6,500, compared to nearly 40,000 now. It went up in the war, but the vast majority went there since.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
Not zero but low. Remember, in a year he's gone from not running to running to making progress to potential PM. It's all been upwards trajectory. He has form when the tide turns for doing a runner. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to a downturn in Reforms fortunes (there will surely be one at some point)
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
This may explain why the Luftwaffe never bombed Canvey.
Another theory is they thought it had already been done.
They did bomb Canvey. There was a bomb next to the school I attended, and several others at various times.
I don’t know if it will make a difference politically but surely it was incredibly silly for Farage to praise Truss’s Budget so clearly.
Farage has 3+ years to do the following: stop identifying with people who are bad for reputations (eg Trump); stop identifying with spending hundreds of billions you haven't got; start identifying with the 95% of voters who are welfare state social democrats, fond of free stuff who want it run better; abandon Singapore on Humber and low tax; identify a group of people who could be a front bench that wouldn't make everyone laugh at them. Then produce a manifesto - it will be the most studied ever - that can get past the OBR, IFS, the markets and the media.
If he can win a majority it can only be from the position comprehensible to Clacton: high spending social democracy with less wokery and secure borders, sound on defence.
Personally I think the last few weeks show that this is his intention.
I think he’s making the right moves in that direction but it would surely require junking a lot of the Reform programme from 2024.
Yes. Last time Reform could say what they liked, they were establishing a presence among less thoughful voters, not standing for government. Few cared that their economics were bedlam. Next time will be fascinating.
At the moment the other parties and the Reform critics are attacking 'Old Reform' - the Tatian Trumpian sort, and the promises like £20k starting point for income tax. Which is fair enough. But, IMHO, they are behind Reform's curve, and havn't adapted yet to how Reform will start getting onto 'Rome was not built in a day' stuff.
Also, Labour is given them gifts. The WFA abolition and the 2 child cap are bad policies. reform are using them to turn themselves into social democrats.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
Not zero but low. Remember, in a year he's gone from not running to running to making progress to potential PM. It's all been upwards trajectory. He has form when the tide turns for doing a runner. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to a downturn in Reforms fortunes (there will surely be one at some point)
Yeah there will surely be something between now and 2029 that knocks Reform off course.
Right now they seem unassailable but that was exactly how I felt when Johnson won in 2019.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
Doing too much, more like doing things in a highly inefficient manner.
Farage going for crypto is interesting. What is the angle here?
Launching his own meme coin to make bank?
More seriously he is copying Trump cosying up to crypto-bros. They a) have money* and b) skew young often with quite a lot of reach online as lots of young people see the only way they will afford a house etc is to gamble on crypto.
* depending on what state the tulip mania is in.
It's a big mistake on Farage's part. I don't think this will have follow through.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
Shoplifting is way higher than official figures as shops just don't bother reporting loads of it.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Is this a pitch for the leadership? Whatever the pros and cons of the TFL stunt one can't deny it is effective.
Kemi needs to step aside now. Jenrick has captured the public imagination like no politician has since Blair and 'tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'. If the Tories play this right, a massive landslide and years of good will await Jenrick as they awaited Blair all those years ago.
If we can look upon Leon as the clitoris of the right(ho, ho) thinking English voter, Jenrick has it in the bag.
It seems the Lib Dems have reached somewhat of a ceiling in vote share. Enough to retain or even mildly add to seat tally if it continues into 2029 but nowhere near breakthrough level.
The question is where to go from here. [I have taken my prophylactics and vaccines against “opportunistic NIMBY twats”, “Post Office”, “Coalition tuition fees” and “stupid stunts”) so should have reasonable immunity to the replies.]
We’ve conquered the Gail’s belt and look to be consolidating it (see Lewis overnight) but somehow the party needs to breakthrough in a new region or demographic to make further progress. None are easy.
- Urban Labour strongholds: fertile ground in the Blair years, but long gone. The Greens and independents seem better placed. This is the biggest contrast with Macron who has a stranglehold on wealthy inner Ile de France. - Tory shires: these will turn increasingly Reform, so with a split right wing vote I think there is scope. See North Shropshire for how it’s done. - M1 and M6 corridor: this is a Lib Dem wasteland and traditionally Con-Lab marginal territory. Hard to break into - Liberal / urban bits of the Reformy red wall: yes, I think there is scope here as the Labour vote declines, building on some encouraging council results - Wales seems irretrievably lost - Scotland is hard yards but some prospect of replacing Tories as the unionist party in more shiry spots?
I think if I were strategising for the party I’d go for a 2-prong approach:
1. parts of former Tory strongholds where they’re collapsing to Reform, and where LDs can come through the middle, by-election style 2. Liberal islands in the new Reform heartlands: the Austin Texases
They probably ought to secure the gains of '24 first, and also try and protect against a squeeze if it becomes a Reform/Labour head to head with everyone else folding. In terms of progress they are a little 'unlucky' in hitting pretty much every target in 2024 on a low vote share, it makes progress even at 15 or 16% quite hard in raw seat numbers. Next year's elections may not be helpful, not their best areas and 6th in Wales (quite likely) and Scotland not impossible, although overhauling the STories in Scotland is also possible!
Is this a pitch for the leadership? Whatever the pros and cons of the TFL stunt one can't deny it is effective.
Kemi needs to step aside now. Jenrick has captured the public imagination like no politician has since Blair and 'tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'. If the Tories play this right, a massive landslide and years of good will await Jenrick as they awaited Blair all those years ago.
If we can look upon Leon as the clitoris of the right(ho, ho) thinking English voter, Jenrick has it in the bag.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
Shoplifting is way higher than official figures as shops just don't bother reporting loads of it.
Are you sure about that? Most supermarkets make reporting on incidents mandatory, IIRC. Remember, they live by statistics.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
I think it would be a rather small SS; in 1938 the population was only 6,500, compared to nearly 40,000 now. It went up in the war, but the vast majority went there since.
London overspill, I assume.
There's a fairly large (and recently arrived) Hasidic community, who could no longer afford North East London.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Many places *were* islands, until land was reclaimed. It’s hard to imagine high tides reaching as far as Cambridge or Somerton, or York being a seaport, but it was once the case.
It seems the Lib Dems have reached somewhat of a ceiling in vote share. Enough to retain or even mildly add to seat tally if it continues into 2029 but nowhere near breakthrough level.
The question is where to go from here. [I have taken my prophylactics and vaccines against “opportunistic NIMBY twats”, “Post Office”, “Coalition tuition fees” and “stupid stunts”) so should have reasonable immunity to the replies.]
We’ve conquered the Gail’s belt and look to be consolidating it (see Lewis overnight) but somehow the party needs to breakthrough in a new region or demographic to make further progress. None are easy.
- Urban Labour strongholds: fertile ground in the Blair years, but long gone. The Greens and independents seem better placed. This is the biggest contrast with Macron who has a stranglehold on wealthy inner Ile de France. - Tory shires: these will turn increasingly Reform, so with a split right wing vote I think there is scope. See North Shropshire for how it’s done. - M1 and M6 corridor: this is a Lib Dem wasteland and traditionally Con-Lab marginal territory. Hard to break into - Liberal / urban bits of the Reformy red wall: yes, I think there is scope here as the Labour vote declines, building on some encouraging council results - Wales seems irretrievably lost - Scotland is hard yards but some prospect of replacing Tories as the unionist party in more shiry spots?
I think if I were strategising for the party I’d go for a 2-prong approach:
1. parts of former Tory strongholds where they’re collapsing to Reform, and where LDs can come through the middle, by-election style 2. Liberal islands in the new Reform heartlands: the Austin Texases
There is potential elsewhere, the indicator being where they have strong council representation. Leics is NoC with a minority Reform administration, with LDs as second largest party.
While Shire Leics used to be true blue outside the city, Loughborough and Coalville that is no longer the case. There's some residual support for the Tories in the county set, but a lot of the suburbanites are open to LD or Reform, depending on their attitudes to multiculturalism.
Is this a pitch for the leadership? Whatever the pros and cons of the TFL stunt one can't deny it is effective.
Kemi needs to step aside now. Jenrick has captured the public imagination like no politician has since Blair and 'tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'. If the Tories play this right, a massive landslide and years of good will await Jenrick as they awaited Blair all those years ago.
If we can look upon Leon as the clitoris of the right(ho, ho) thinking English voter, Jenrick has it in the bag.
Is that near the G spot?
In my experience for 99.99% of women the g spot is located at the end of the word shopping.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
I think it would be a rather small SS; in 1938 the population was only 6,500, compared to nearly 40,000 now. It went up in the war, but the vast majority went there since.
London overspill, I assume.
The defining question on Canvey is, or at least to be, "Were you here before the flood?" If you could answer yes, then you were a local.
@MattW's right; there was, in the 60's through to the 80's, a big movement out of :London. Houses on Canvey were cheap, compared to the mainland.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
What is the alternative though? Sit back, do nothing until the GE campaign starts? And on one level if what he does causes the governing party to change policy, isn't that a win of sorts? After all Farage achieved Brexit without being PM or indeed being an MP, simply through pressure on other parties.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
Shoplifting is way higher than official figures as shops just don't bother reporting loads of it.
Are you sure about that? Most supermarkets make reporting on incidents mandatory, IIRC. Remember, they live by statistics.
Maybe internally, I meant crime stats. I saw it happen the other day. Shoplifter got folded up by security in the car park, they got the stock back and then they let him go.
Also, supermarkets might be, but I doubt smaller shops are, they don't have the manpower / systems to do so.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
if you look at law enforcement purely economically at the bottom line, you soon miss the point. Nearly all law and order is self enforced and self imposed. If (fares, shop lifting) the ordinary honest begin to feel like uncool mugs the social contract breaks down. It is an aspect of the 'broken windows' theory.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
if you look at law enforcement purely economically at the bottom line, you soon miss the point. Nearly all law and order is self enforced and self imposed. If (fares, shop lifting) the ordinary honest begin to feel like uncool mugs the social contract breaks down. It is an aspect of the 'broken windows' theory.
Isn't this how we got in this mess in the first place, cuts to law and order, short term money saving, long term, shit show.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
Shoplifting is way higher than official figures as shops just don't bother reporting loads of it.
Are you sure about that? Most supermarkets make reporting on incidents mandatory, IIRC. Remember, they live by statistics.
Maybe internally, I meant crime stats. I saw it happen the other day. Shoplifter got folded up by security in the car park. Then they let him go.
Also, supermarkets might be, but I doubt smaller shops are, they don't have the manpower / systems to do so.
Would be interesting to find out.
For TfL, the way I would do it would be using the security cameras - hire some cheap labour to go through a sample of recordings to pick out the fare evading incidents. Anyone know if that os what they do?
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
What is the alternative though? Sit back, do nothing until the GE campaign starts? And on one level if what he does causes the governing party to change policy, isn't that a win of sorts? After all Farage achieved Brexit without being PM or indeed being an MP, simply through pressure on other parties.
Strategically it makes sense to me but it seems to rest on the idea they don’t make a single mistake in the next four years and that Labour sit up and go home.
As I keep saying, if Labour’s policies work then Farage will have the sting taken out of his tail. Presumably Farage thinks they won’t work but the reality is that the government has the levers, they can really do whatever they want.
I still think the government isn’t quite as bad as people say. My biggest concern with them is that they’re falling down the Biden hole of “GDP strong, people happier” when it is how people feel that matters.
I still think the biggest thing they could do to actually show progress is stopping the boats.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
I think it would be a rather small SS; in 1938 the population was only 6,500, compared to nearly 40,000 now. It went up in the war, but the vast majority went there since.
London overspill, I assume.
One of the astonishing things about D-Day was the identity of some of the Wehrmacht soldiers fighting. This included a bunch of Korean soldiers who were very far from home.
The racial purity of Germany ended up a bit stretched by 1944...
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
Not zero but low. Remember, in a year he's gone from not running to running to making progress to potential PM. It's all been upwards trajectory. He has form when the tide turns for doing a runner. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to a downturn in Reforms fortunes (there will surely be one at some point)
Yeah there will surely be something between now and 2029 that knocks Reform off course.
Right now they seem unassailable but that was exactly how I felt when Johnson won in 2019.
Something as simple as Dan Norris having to resign his seat or being recalled depending on his case and Rees Mogg winning back his old seat in the by election could set a new narrative. The current 'further' surge from mid 20s to 30 is all down to May 1st. Maintaining the buzz for 4 months is unlikely, let alone 4 years. Clearly they will gain big next time and might well replace the Tories but they are very much a dumping ground for general disatisfaction right now - nearly half their increased vote share since the election is from did not votes. Did not votes staying motivated to vote for 4 years?
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
You tell me, if you're going to challenge the stat. I'd guess they can measure or count the numbers on trains on different points and match it up with receipts at the gates. Probably a sample that is extrapolated.
Morning all. Very weirdly all reference to the local by election Con gain in Maldon last night seem to have been memory holed on twitter with some suggestion its counting today......the tweet from which i copied the result has disappeared so my sincere apologies if that turns out to have been fake news
The original information was that it was counting this morning. Doesn't surprise me if some joker has decided it would be fun to spread misinformation about local election results.
Farage going for crypto is interesting. What is the angle here?
Political suicide. Tying himself to a battery, jumping off a boat into Shark invested water. Having already downed a bottle of bleach.
Crypto is an obvious Ponzi scheme. Surely it will pop sometime, but the bubble expands fastest just before it pops. Timing the exit strategy is key, as when it does liquidity will be gone. Indeed it could well precipitate the next financial crisis when the cryptobros face margin calls.
For the moment there's no sign of it popping, but a significant chance of it doing so before the next GE.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
What is the alternative though? Sit back, do nothing until the GE campaign starts? And on one level if what he does causes the governing party to change policy, isn't that a win of sorts? After all Farage achieved Brexit without being PM or indeed being an MP, simply through pressure on other parties.
Strategically it makes sense to me but it seems to rest on the idea they don’t make a single mistake in the next four years and that Labour sit up and go home.
As I keep saying, if Labour’s policies work then Farage will have the sting taken out of his tail. Presumably Farage thinks they won’t work but the reality is that the government has the levers, they can really do whatever they want.
I still think the government isn’t quite as bad as people say. My biggest concern with them is that they’re falling down the Biden hole of “GDP strong, people happier” when it is how people feel that matters.
I still think the biggest thing they could do to actually show progress is stopping the boats.
Personally think the country could do with a stable, efficient government that gets the job done. A bit like a game of football where the ref isn't noticed because he or she runs the game without issue.
In four years time (and if things are going well, it will probably be three) with things looking better then 'Reform - a plague on all their houses' will not have such a strong pull. But three/four years is a long time when people like us avoid marking essays and waste time on PB endlessly.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
Not zero but low. Remember, in a year he's gone from not running to running to making progress to potential PM. It's all been upwards trajectory. He has form when the tide turns for doing a runner. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to a downturn in Reforms fortunes (there will surely be one at some point)
Yeah there will surely be something between now and 2029 that knocks Reform off course.
Right now they seem unassailable but that was exactly how I felt when Johnson won in 2019.
Something as simple as Dan Norris having to resign his seat or being recalled depending on his case and Rees Mogg winning back his old seat in the by election could set a new narrative. The current 'further' surge from mid 20s to 30 is all down to May 1st. Maintaining the buzz for 4 months is unlikely, let alone 4 years. Clearly they will gain big next time and might well replace the Tories but they are very much a dumping ground for general disatisfaction right now - nearly half their increased vote share since the election is from did not votes. Did not votes staying motivated to vote for 4 years?
I still am struggling to understand how YouGov had such a different answer on the best PM metric to virtually every other pollster. It seems to fly in the face of everything.
The party that is perceived to have “won” always seems to get a boost post an election (except erh, Labour 2024). It happened to Corbyn after 2017 who led for a while.
If people are saying it’s a done deal that’s when I step back and think it isn’t. I tend to be of the view that we don’t have a clue what will happen in four years.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Many places *were* islands, until land was reclaimed. It’s hard to imagine high tides reaching as far as Cambridge or Somerton, or York being a seaport, but it was once the case.
Indeed. Before they reclaimed the fens it was much easier to keep the furriners out of Norfolk, alluvial isolation
I’m not quite sure the Farage=Truss line is going to stick.
To me it seems to be saying that any party offering radical change is going to crash the economy so voters need to stick with boring Keir and Rachel. This may indeed have a truth to it - but voters of late have not reacted well to messaging that they simply can’t have it any different and they have to just trust the grown ups.
For now, the most important thing for Labour is to start to sow doubt, so it’s not as if I am criticising the attack line at this stage of a parliament. I just feel that when it comes to the crunch it isn’t going to resonate that well.
I do however think it is a tactical error for Starmer to keep saying the Tories are doomed. He is better off facing the Tories as the main opposition at the next GE than Farage, and by continuing this line all he is doing is contributing to Reform’s growth.
I’m not quite sure the Farage=Truss line is going to stick.
To me it seems to be saying that any party offering radical change is going to crash the economy so voters need to stick with boring Keir and Rachel. This may indeed have a truth to it - but voters of late have not reacted well to messaging that they simply can’t have it any different and they have to just trust the grown ups.
For now, the most important thing for Labour is to start to sow doubt, so it’s not as if I am criticising the attack line at this stage of a parliament. I just feel that when it comes to the crunch it isn’t going to resonate that well.
I do however think it is a tactical error for Starmer to keep saying the Tories are doomed. He is better off facing the Tories as the main opposition at the next GE than Farage, and by continuing this line all he is doing is contributing to Reform’s growth.
The theory I’ve heard which is based on private polling klaxon is that Labour will get more tactical votes if their main opponent is Reform/Farage rather than the Tories.
So it explains why Labour are bigging up Reform as the principal opposition.
TFL have advised staff not to confront people they think might be dangerous, they have to call in officers trained in 'enforcement' - which merely begs the question, how many of these stations have these enforcement staff, and where are they? Anyone dodging a barrier has committed a crime, so don't they all present the possibility of danger? So what's the point of having people who aren't trained to enforce the rules?
It is understood that TfL tells station staff that they are expected to assist customers to pay the correct fare for their journeys and encourage everyone to tap in.
But the network says that if a member of staff judges it is not safe to intervene, they are encouraged to report incidents they witness to inform the deployment of enforcement staff.
Most stations don't have enforcement staff, they just have one or two ordinary TFL staff members. And, as you say, they've been told not to intervene in case it's dangerous.
Would you want to confront four or five large young gentlemen pushing through the barrier? I wouldn't - I suspect even Robert Jenrick wouldn't.
Should there be permanent security staff at every problematic tube station? Might help though the evaders will do to another station.
Mobile swat squads attending stations randomly would be the most cost effective way of reducing fare evasion.
Which is roughly what happens. Arguably it doesn't happen enough, but that's a question of how much money TfL is prepared/able to spend to catch how many fare dodgers.
A crackdown on London Tube and bus fare dodgers cost around 20 times more than it clawed back over the past year, new figures show.
The problem is if you don't you end up with a situation like in NYC where on some bus route literally nobody pays and then the discussion changes to how to fund free travel for all.
You just need to reach an optimal outcome. The fact they actually lose money on more enforcement suggests they are currently doing too much, though I guess it's a slippery slope and things could escalate before you can respond (like the 2022 supermarket shoplifting surge).
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
I wonder what basis they are measuring it as 3%?
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
Shoplifting is way higher than official figures as shops just don't bother reporting loads of it.
Are you sure about that? Most supermarkets make reporting on incidents mandatory, IIRC. Remember, they live by statistics.
Maybe internally, I meant crime stats. I saw it happen the other day. Shoplifter got folded up by security in the car park. Then they let him go.
Also, supermarkets might be, but I doubt smaller shops are, they don't have the manpower / systems to do so.
Would be interesting to find out.
For TfL, the way I would do it would be using the security cameras - hire some cheap labour to go through a sample of recordings to pick out the fare evading incidents. Anyone know if that os what they do?
Tie the cameras to the payment logs and that does feel like a machine learning solvable problem. It should also be able to kick out a list of priority targets.
Is this a pitch for the leadership? Whatever the pros and cons of the TFL stunt one can't deny it is effective.
Kemi needs to step aside now. Jenrick has captured the public imagination like no politician has since Blair and 'tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime'. If the Tories play this right, a massive landslide and years of good will await Jenrick as they awaited Blair all those years ago.
If we can look upon Leon as the clitoris of the right(ho, ho) thinking English voter, Jenrick has it in the bag.
Did he make these rapscallions pay their train fares?
Does he have a workable plan to reduce fare dodging?
Otherwise, he's one of those grumpy men waving their fists at Dennis the Menace as he runs away.
A public citizen doesn't have the power to 'make' other people pay their fares - he can however bring their fare dodging to the notice of TFL staff on the scene, whose actual job is to make them pay their fare, which is what he did.
His workable plan is to inspire a public debate that forces TFL to take steps to stamp out the practice, rather than watching whilst it happens and putting fares up for those who pay, or getting the begging bowl out for more funding.
It is entirely legitimate, and this daft carping is purely because Jenrick is a right wing Tory complaining about a Labour issue. Change the rosette, and you'd be full of praise.
Hang on. People don't see "A Labour issue". This isn't about faredodging, its about the rampant crime wave sweeping the country thanks to a lack of police and a lack of trials and a jack of jails.
Which everyone blames the Tories for, because its the Tories fault. The idea that the faredodging element of the rampant crime wave is a Labour issue because of who the mayor is demonstrates almost HYUFD levels of hopium.
Sadiq Khan has been responsible for TFL and had other wide ranging powers in London for nearly a decade. Above him, he now has a Labour Government at UK level. How is it not a Labour issue?
That's a valid point and in keeping bus fares low, Khan has unashamedly played to his political base.
Slightly in his defence, the passenger numbers show tube journeys during the week to be at 85% of pre-Covid numbers (bus numbers a little higher) so that's a key piece of income which they have lost (in common with other transport providers).
TfL are trying to make up the shortfall by cuts to Services - there are fewer tubes especially during the off-peak day time period and at weekends (the latter is odd because weekend leisure traffic has rebounded to be slightly above pre-Covid levels).
Tube staff have done very well out of Khan (as you might expect) and there's been little or no industrial action (again, as you might expect). The Elizabeth Line has been a huge success and it's given a boost to those advocating other improvements such as the Bakerloo Line extension and even the North-South Crossrail link.
That said, so many Londoners rely on public transport it needs to work well and be run well.
The drop in passengers does not just mean less income from fares, it also means less from advertising.
On fare evasion, it is ironic that just a month ago TfL recently announced upgraded measures. It might have been this that caught the idea of Jenrick's campaign team.
Last nights Canvey Island Reform success has wrecked a council oddity - Castle Point DC was the only council in England with no Con, Lab, Ref, LD or Green councillors. Its still the only one with no Con, Lab, LD or Green
A barrister friend who works in the area reckons that if Hitler had invaded, he could have recruited a British SS on Canvey Island.
In all fairness to Canvey Island, that could be said of many parts of Britain. So as it stands the only thing to come out of Oil City of note was oil and Dr Feelgood.
There’s surely mileage in a travel book or TV series (perhaps it already exists) about the mysterious “islands” and “isles” of the UK that are not really, or only just, islands, and don’t fully live up to the Ibiza or Skye image of what an island should be.
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
Ely.
Kelham Island in Sheffield.
Burntisland!
Isle of Dogs.
Done in the OP.
There should be an isle of cats too. (There is Ao island in Japan).
Morning all. Very weirdly all reference to the local by election Con gain in Maldon last night seem to have been memory holed on twitter with some suggestion its counting today......the tweet from which i copied the result has disappeared so my sincere apologies if that turns out to have been fake news
The original information was that it was counting this morning. Doesn't surprise me if some joker has decided it would be fun to spread misinformation about local election results.
They appear to have misread the result of Maldon North in March this year as last nights Maldon West result........ I don't think it was deliberate (but I don't know)
Crypto is also a big thing in the global MAGAsphere. For some reason it is an alt-right coded financial instrument. I suspect this is another US political import.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
Not zero but low. Remember, in a year he's gone from not running to running to making progress to potential PM. It's all been upwards trajectory. He has form when the tide turns for doing a runner. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to a downturn in Reforms fortunes (there will surely be one at some point)
Yeah there will surely be something between now and 2029 that knocks Reform off course.
Right now they seem unassailable but that was exactly how I felt when Johnson won in 2019.
Something as simple as Dan Norris having to resign his seat or being recalled depending on his case and Rees Mogg winning back his old seat in the by election could set a new narrative. The current 'further' surge from mid 20s to 30 is all down to May 1st. Maintaining the buzz for 4 months is unlikely, let alone 4 years. Clearly they will gain big next time and might well replace the Tories but they are very much a dumping ground for general disatisfaction right now - nearly half their increased vote share since the election is from did not votes. Did not votes staying motivated to vote for 4 years?
I still am struggling to understand how YouGov had such a different answer on the best PM metric to virtually every other pollster. It seems to fly in the face of everything.
The party that is perceived to have “won” always seems to get a boost post an election (except erh, Labour 2024). It happened to Corbyn after 2017 who led for a while.
If people are saying it’s a done deal that’s when I step back and think it isn’t. I tend to be of the view that we don’t have a clue what will happen in four years.
Head to heads are weird though - left leaning parties versus right leaning parties with a bit of crossover Freshwater Strategy have often found Kemi beating Keir! Although in the head to heads Keir vs Kemi, opinium etc find a similar gap to YG
Comments
As well as Canvey, some obvious candidates for chapters would be: Barry, Portland, Dogs, Sheppey, Thanet, Black, Grain, Hayling. Each has an interesting history and generally quirky culture.
You are right though. It's not going to be a good look when he's stood next to Our Ange in the 2029 GE leadership debates and it looks like she could suplex him with ease.
Their 3% evasion rate is very good on an international comparison. From a purely financial POI, chasing the richer commuters evading £10,000+ is what they should do more of.
If you want TfL to go after the former, you have to accept it's going to be a net financial loss.
If he can win a majority it can only be from the position comprehensible to Clacton: high spending social democracy with less wokery and secure borders, sound on defence.
Personally I think the last few weeks show that this is his intention.
Besides RoboJenrick surely makes it Con 28(+12) next week!
Piel Island. Walney.
ITV had a compelling true-crime doc on the Mersea fentanyl murders the other week
More seriously he is copying Trump cosying up to crypto-bros. They a) have money* and b) skew young often with quite a lot of reach online as lots of young people see the only way they will afford a house etc is to gamble on crypto.
* depending on what state the tulip mania is in.
It seems the Lib Dems have reached somewhat of a ceiling in vote share. Enough to retain or even mildly add to seat tally if it continues into 2029 but nowhere near breakthrough level.
The question is where to go from here. [I have taken my prophylactics and vaccines against “opportunistic NIMBY twats”, “Post Office”, “Coalition tuition fees” and “stupid stunts”) so should have reasonable immunity to the replies.]
We’ve conquered the Gail’s belt and look to be consolidating it (see Lewis overnight) but somehow the party needs to breakthrough in a new region or demographic to make further progress. None are easy.
- Urban Labour strongholds: fertile ground in the Blair years, but long gone. The Greens and independents seem better placed. This is the biggest contrast with Macron who has a stranglehold on wealthy inner Ile de France.
- Tory shires: these will turn increasingly Reform, so with a split right wing vote I think there is scope. See North Shropshire for how it’s done.
- M1 and M6 corridor: this is a Lib Dem wasteland and traditionally Con-Lab marginal territory. Hard to break into
- Liberal / urban bits of the Reformy red wall: yes, I think there is scope here as the Labour vote declines, building on some encouraging council results
- Wales seems irretrievably lost
- Scotland is hard yards but some prospect of replacing Tories as the unionist party in more shiry spots?
I think if I were strategising for the party I’d go for a 2-prong approach:
1. parts of former Tory strongholds where they’re collapsing to Reform, and where LDs can come through the middle, by-election style
2. Liberal islands in the new Reform heartlands: the Austin Texases
Odds of a flounce must be considered
Farage is clearly going for it.
I still question running what is basically a four year election campaign. Surely even he must know that if things improve he will far less ability to make a splash?
Has he concluded that Labour is already finished? Less than a year in?
London overspill, I assume.
Remember, in a year he's gone from not running to running to making progress to potential PM. It's all been upwards trajectory. He has form when the tide turns for doing a runner. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to a downturn in Reforms fortunes (there will surely be one at some point)
At the moment the other parties and the Reform critics are attacking 'Old Reform' - the Tatian Trumpian sort, and the promises like £20k starting point for income tax. Which is fair enough. But, IMHO, they are behind Reform's curve, and havn't adapted yet to how Reform will start getting onto 'Rome was not built in a day' stuff.
Also, Labour is given them gifts. The WFA abolition and the 2 child cap are bad policies. reform are using them to turn themselves into social democrats.
Right now they seem unassailable but that was exactly how I felt when Johnson won in 2019.
I see tailgating and pushing through the barriers on about half my journeys.
Next year's elections may not be helpful, not their best areas and 6th in Wales (quite likely) and Scotland not impossible, although overhauling the STories in Scotland is also possible!
Have I mentioned I tipped him to lose his seat at 14/1?
While Shire Leics used to be true blue outside the city, Loughborough and Coalville that is no longer the case. There's some residual support for the Tories in the county set, but a lot of the suburbanites are open to LD or Reform, depending on their attitudes to multiculturalism.
Starmer’s strategy seems to be to make any fights now Reform vs Labour, presumably he hopes to re-build his left flank by fear. It’s a risky move.
If you could answer yes, then you were a local.
@MattW's right; there was, in the 60's through to the 80's, a big movement out of :London. Houses on Canvey were cheap, compared to the mainland.
Also, supermarkets might be, but I doubt smaller shops are, they don't have the manpower / systems to do so.
For TfL, the way I would do it would be using the security cameras - hire some cheap labour to go through a sample of recordings to pick out the fare evading incidents. Anyone know if that os what they do?
As I keep saying, if Labour’s policies work then Farage will have the sting taken out of his tail. Presumably Farage thinks they won’t work but the reality is that the government has the levers, they can really do whatever they want.
I still think the government isn’t quite as bad as people say. My biggest concern with them is that they’re falling down the Biden hole of “GDP strong, people happier” when it is how people feel that matters.
I still think the biggest thing they could do to actually show progress is stopping the boats.
The racial purity of Germany ended up a bit stretched by 1944...
The current 'further' surge from mid 20s to 30 is all down to May 1st. Maintaining the buzz for 4 months is unlikely, let alone 4 years.
Clearly they will gain big next time and might well replace the Tories but they are very much a dumping ground for general disatisfaction right now - nearly half their increased vote share since the election is from did not votes. Did not votes staying motivated to vote for 4 years?
For the moment there's no sign of it popping, but a significant chance of it doing so before the next GE.
In four years time (and if things are going well, it will probably be three) with things looking better then 'Reform - a plague on all their houses' will not have such a strong pull. But three/four years is a long time when people like us avoid marking essays and waste time on PB endlessly.
I am mostly incommunicado those days.
Don’t worry, I’ve got some threads on cash, AV, the pandemic, Brexit, Scottish independence, and why Starmer is awesome.
The party that is perceived to have “won” always seems to get a boost post an election (except erh, Labour 2024). It happened to Corbyn after 2017 who led for a while.
If people are saying it’s a done deal that’s when I step back and think it isn’t. I tend to be of the view that we don’t have a clue what will happen in four years.
To me it seems to be saying that any party offering radical change is going to crash the economy so voters need to stick with boring Keir and Rachel. This may indeed have a truth to it - but voters of late have not reacted well to messaging that they simply can’t have it any different and they have to just trust the grown ups.
For now, the most important thing for Labour is to start to sow doubt, so it’s not as if I am criticising the attack line at this stage of a parliament. I just feel that when it comes to the crunch it isn’t going to resonate that well.
I do however think it is a tactical error for Starmer to keep saying the Tories are doomed. He is better off facing the Tories as the main opposition at the next GE than Farage, and by continuing this line all he is doing is contributing to Reform’s growth.
So it explains why Labour are bigging up Reform as the principal opposition.
If it’s an attempt to appeal to the young it’s all a bit https://youtu.be/VMin0i_h8PI?si=HenCORo42Tx6_hYg
On fare evasion, it is ironic that just a month ago TfL recently announced upgraded measures. It might have been this that caught the idea of Jenrick's campaign team.
TfL introduces new measures to halve fare evasion across all TfL services (30 April 2025)
https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2025/april/tfl-introduces-new-measures-to-halve-fare-evasion-across-all-tfl-services
There should be an isle of cats too. (There is Ao island in Japan).
I don't think it was deliberate (but I don't know)
Freshwater Strategy have often found Kemi beating Keir! Although in the head to heads Keir vs Kemi, opinium etc find a similar gap to YG